Index

1.

1.1

1.2

2.

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

3.

3.1

3.2

2025

3.2.1 2025
3.2.2
3.2.3
3.3

4.


1. 1 1256

r 1 1256 5.3

r 2500 GDP 60%

r 5800 GDP

5.

r 2025 48% 5.2 2

20% GDP
r 42 183

2.

r 2000 2010

r
r E.ON
r

r HSBC)

6.
3.

r 2020 2010
r 2013~2015 2015

r
r

4. 2025 53

2010

48%

2010

1 1256

100

2010

2010

5.7%

2010

2010

5.4%

34%
38%

2.66
2.12

1.

14

2013 2014

1/3
25

1 2011/03/19online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703512404576208872161503008.html
Nature 2011/04/21http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110421/full/472400a.html

1.1
1991 1,697 2004 2006 2335
2009 402 1697 2737 13
(2012 ) 102 3 6
462 3300

1,697

1991
2004

190

1,887

2006

448

2,335

2009

402

2,737

2013

311

102

2,838

462
2

3,300

2013 3 6

2013
2013 8
2014 3 6

2 18 500 2013 2


1 1256

311

102

3800

0.32
1.7% 193 40 1 2

3800

0.49 193
40

1860

BWR
420 USD/kWe 2300 USD/
kWe 3)

1100

4500 4 5 40
2430

132

462

2013 3 6

3300 2838
3300

24

1 1256

1. 2013
2. 2011 TPC-546-4838-9901
3. NEA (2003), Decommissioning Nuclear Power Plants: Policies, Strategies and Costs, OECD, Paris, France
4. NIREX. "Summary Note for CoRWM on Cost Estimates for CoRWM Option 7 (Deep Geological Disposal) and Option 9 (Phased Deep Geological
Disposal)".NIREX Technical Note 484432. September 2005
5. Jackson Consulting. 2011. Subsidy Assessment of Waste Transfer Pricing for Disposal of Spent Fuel from New Nuclear Power Stations. Independent Report
for Greenpeace UK 1st March 2011

2,838 1 2340
1 1256 1 1256

2500 GDP 60%

5800 GDP 20%
GDP
6

 1 1256 42
183

1 1256

1 1256
5.3
2012 2030 2240
8460MW 1 1256 40GW
15 5.3

1.2

20
20 89
36

(General Electric) 2012 7

12
E.ON

(2009)

(Equity risk premium)13

3.Tatsuo Kobayashi. FY2020 Nuclear Generating Cost Treble Pre-Accident Level--Huge Price Tag on Fukushima Accident Cleanup. Japan Center for Economic
Research. 2012.
4.Ludivine PC and Momal P. Massive radiological releases profoundly differ from controlled releases. Eurosafe Forum. 2012.http://www.eurosafe-forum.org/
userfiles/file/Eurosafe2012/Seminar%202/Abstracts/02_06_Massive%20releases%20vs%20controlled%20releases_Momal_final.pdf
5. 2011 TPC-546-4838-9901
6.Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley. http://rael.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/green%20jobs_beta_
v5.2posted%20jul2309_0.xls
7.Mycle Schneider Antony Froggatt 2012 (World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2012) ,
http://www.worldnuclearreport.org/
7

Areva Moody's
Standared and Poor's Fitch 2009 BBB-

UBS

80%14
HSBC) 2011 3

15
HSBC

(BNP-Paribas) 2012

16

12 GE2012/06/30, http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001045746
13 Citigroup Global Markets, New Nuclear The Economics Say No, 2009/11/09, https://www.citigroupgeo.com/pdf/SEU27102.pdf
14 UBS Investment Research, Q-Series: Global Nuclear Power, Can Nuclear Power Survive Fukushima?, 2012/04/04 http://zh.scribd.com/doc/54263128/CanNuclear-Power-Survive-Fukushima-UBS-Q-Series
15 HSBC, Climate Investment Update on Japan crisis, 2011/03/18
http://www.research.hsbc.com/midas/Res/RDV?ao=20&key=4wVf4k0yKe&n=293732.PDF
16 (BNP-Paribas) 2012 5 8 How will financing be secured in the
future?)2012 ,p.40
8

2.

IPCC 2011 6
17
: 2050 77
Energy Revolution 2050 2007
3.7 2050
1990 82Business
as Usual 2 7

(International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA) 300

2012 (Global Energy Assessment)
2050 ~2060

18

17 IPCC, 2011: IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation. Prepared by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change [O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, K. Seyboth, P. Matschoss, S. Kadner, T. Zwickel, P. Eickemeier, G. Hansen, S. Schlmer, C.
von Stechow (eds)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1075 pp.
18 GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

2.1
2025 1

2012 2025
75% 50% 25% 1/3
2012 11
19

2013

2013

2016
Delphine Batho

20

19 Bulletin of the Atomic ScientistsA French nuclear exit?, 2013 1 http://bos.sagepub.com/content/current

20 2013/02/04http://www.lihpao.com/?action-viewnews-itemid-126419
21 2013/01/15 http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2013/new/jan/15/today-family2.htm
22 640 2013/01 http://www.lihpao.com/?action-viewnews-itemid-125507
23 3 2012/12/30 http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20121230-00000032-mai-pol
24 4 2013/01/04 http://www.chunichi.co.jp/s/article/2013010490211402.html
25 2012/06http://www.lihpao.com/?action-viewnews-itemid-119111http://www.
lihpao.com/?action-viewnews-itemid-119328

10

2.2

21

311
22

2012 12 30
12 30
40
23

(2013) 1 4

24
TBS

2.3

25

2011 5
17 8 2022

10 1990
2011 20

11

8 10

2002 17 10

2011

8 2012 2
7

BDEW2012 2011
22011 2010 6 10
3 2012
2011
2000

2000 40
45
8

1990

26 , UPDATE 2-Bulgaria abandons Belene nuclear plant plans, 2012/03/28

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/28/bulgaria-nuclear-idUSL6E8ES7A420120328
12

2.4

26

1987

2012 3 Borisov

2.5
25
90 26% 16%
1988
9 8 2023
2010

EDFCentricaEDF
9 8 EDF EDF

David Cameron
Cumbria
13


Cumbria

Chris Huhne

2.6

27

2009

2012 11
Yeonggwang

Nuclear Safety & Security Commision

23 Korea Electric Power CorpKEPCOKim
Joong-kyum
2003 2012 7000
UCI
2012

27 2012/12/14 http://www.lihpao.com/action-viewnews-itemid-12510
14

2.7

2011 6
94%

2011 10 : 2015
2025

2012/10/14 :

RWE

2011/9/28

NRG
2012 1978
NRC Vogtle
2012 3 :77%

1972 Watts Bar 2

2012 (World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2012)

3.

2015 2025

15

3.1

2015
22.7% 2
2015 7.4%
3.5% 2015 2010 13%
1.5

2011 8 18
33787MW 2011
33787MW

2700MW 2565MW

2015 10.9%
15%

15% 2008
20% 2005
13% 15%

(%)=

100

100

2015 2012
18%
28 100 2012
29 2011 TPC-546-4838-9901

16

50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
(MW)
0

23%

3.2 2025
2025
2025

3.2.1 2025

2025 48% 1000

5.2 2
28

2025 7%
2025 7.7%
49% 34%
2010 1.7
2010 34%

2010 4800 29 2010

2.66 80%
2.3
17

3500
3000

2500

2000
1500
1000
500

0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

3.2.2

2025

49%
14%
2025
34%
40% 2010
41%
6% 6%

30 IEA, Key World Energy Statistic 2012. http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/kwes.pdf

18

3.2.3

2025
48%
78% GDP 23%

GDP

2000 2010

2000 2010
3

2.5

1.5

0.5
0
0.8

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

2000 2010

19

 2010
12%
30

( /
0.6
0.53
0.5

0.47

0.4

0.3

0.23
0.20

0.2

0.14
0.1

20% 31
0.45 2007~2011
2600 2008 900

31 http://emis.erl.itri.org.tw/benchmark/list.asp
32 311 2012/03/05http://www.moea.gov.tw/Mns/populace/news/wHandEpaper_File.
ashx?ec_id=2
20

kWh/

420

503.6

20

kWh/

23.26

28.64

23

KWh/

0.31

0.35

13

Mcal/ /

362

456

26

( )

2007

1,194

2.37

1.93

528

2008

1,171

2.90

2.12

913

2009

1,097

2.68

2.46

239

2010

1,242

2.75

2.46

362

2011

1,278

2.87

2.45

537

32

21

 4.5

2025 2010
1.83 21%
65%
2010 5000

20% 20%
0.3%

2020 2010
2013~2015 2015

22

3.3

2025

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
2010

2025

2025

2025

23

 VS

3.8%

3.8%

3.8%

2%

2%

3.6%

2025
2010 48%

2025
2010 48%

2025
2010

2025 2010
70%

2025 2010
70%

2025 2010
65%

2025 8450MW
7.7 %

2025 16450MW
2025 8450MW

7.7 %
21.2%

2010 34%
4600

2010 41% 2010 38%

5500
5000

2010 2.68

2010 2.9

2010 2.07
1800

2010 2.66

2010 2.83

2010 2.12

5.7%

6.4%

5.4%

24

2025

2838
1 1056
40GW 15 5.3

25


2011

15.7%

0.2%
0.8%

7.62%

17.6%

16.7%
18.6%
25.1%
15.3%
2.9%
6.6%
10.6%
36.1%
4%

2.7%

3000
2500

18%

1. 2000 2011 37%

2. 47%

2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000

2002

2004

2006

2000 2011 ( : )
26

2008

2010


2025
8,968MW 2,516MW 2000MW

4500
3000 2MW
6000MW 2000MW
2025 8000MW
3,467MW

300MW
2025 5000MW
2025
16450MW

2010

2025

2025NGO

1,945

2,502

1,500

506

3000

8,000

---

150

150

75

2,500

5,000

814.5

1,400

1,400

---

200

200

---

200

200

3,340

8,968

16,450

Mycle Schneider )
1997
(USAID) (IAEA)
27

IPFM
1997

Right

Livelihood Award
20

Q:

A:

Q:

A:

Q:

A: 31 1980
30
311 MW 2011

Q:
A:

1987 3
Ohma and Shimane-3, 2007 2010

Q: (WANO) (NRC)

A: (WANO)
NRC
NRC

1.

28


2.

Q:
A:

Q:
A:

Q:
A:

1.

2.

probabilitic risk assessmentdanger

potentials

Q:
A:

Q:
A: 311

1.
http://www.lihpao.com/?action-viewnews-itemid-123519
2. Bumbler
http://www.lihpao.com/?action-viewnews-itemid-124195
3.
http://www.lihpao.com/?action-viewnews-itemid-123765

29


World Association of Nuclear
Operators, WANO WANO

1.WANO
WANO (World Association of Nuclear Operators)

Christoph
WANO
regulator operator( )
Andre-Claude LacosteWANO

2.WANO
WANO WANO 20
1 2
20

WANO
WANO
WANO

3. 2009 WANO
2009 WANO
WANO

30

 Koodankulam
WANO 17 8 9 5

Mycle Schneider )
WANO
WANO
(WANO)

31

32