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Nassim Nicholas Taleb

911

21 911
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Risk
Society
1990
Risk

Ulrich
Beck 1986
Risk Society

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Black Swan Theory


Nassim Nicholas Taleb

911

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2 0 11 3 11 1 4 6 9 . 0
15,843 5,890 3,469 110,848
134,954 488,138 2,400
9

2011 3 11 9

2008 5 12 2 48 8
87,467 374,176 13,831 53,295
778.91 548.76
10,000

1999 9 21 7.3
2,415
11,000 4,139 8,457 6,204
3,600
2001 9 11

2,973
2009 8 8
571 106
5,000 160 88

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1-1vs.921vs.

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1990
Risk
Ulrich Beck 1986
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Risk Society

()

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()

()
1738

()

()

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()

()

()

WMO2008
2ppm


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2100
1 C 3.5 C
2 C

()

()

()

1992

1997
2008 2012
1990 5%

2012 2009 12 7
18 192 15,000

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2 C

RMS Risk Management Solutions

2010 1 12 21 53 7 20
2010 1 28

60%
3,852 78
20 9,600 46

85%2004 22
6,408
2005 7 3,338
2008 13
8,366 8 7,476
UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction,
UNISDR

2011
3,700
2011
10

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Sigma
2,400 7.2
2010 2,260 2011

2011 120

Sigma 8,920
26.76 20 50
2,000
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WEF

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WEF

2012

WEF

resilience

resilience
5R

Robustness

12

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Redundancy

Resourcefulness

Response

Recovery

Risk Society

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5R

14

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2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

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Concept of
Risk

Uncertainty

()Whether
()When
()Circumstance
()Uncertainty as to Extent of Consequence

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Chance of Loss

Probability of Loss 0 1
0 1
0.50

18

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Exposure

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Torts

Hazard

Peril

Hazard

()
()

()

Loss
Unintentional

Direct LossIndirect Loss

20

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2-1

2-1

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() () ()
() () () ()
() () ()

Classification of Risks

()Static Risk

1.
2.

3.

4.
5.
6.

()Dynamic Risk

22

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(1)

(2)

(3)

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(4)

2.
1970

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
3.

J. SchumpeterInnovation Theory

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)

1.

24

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.
., 2013.07
.
ISBN 978-957-11-7191-3 ()
1.
494.6

102012524

1FS8









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