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Integrated Risk
Management

20078

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19999212001911
2003SARS2005

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Integrated Risk Management

5.

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477
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31188921911
SARS

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17

Black Swan Theory


Nassim Nicholas Taleb

911

2110911
311

Risk Society

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20113111469.015,843
5,8903,469110,848134,954
488,1382,400
9

20113119

20085122488
87,467374,17613,83153,295
778.91548.76
10,000

19999217.3
2,415
11,0004,1398,4576,204
3,600
20019114

2,973
20098850
571106
5160 88

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1-1vs.921vs.

921

2011311

1999921

2008512

9.0

7.3

130 12.5

8.0

24

19

110,000

45

251

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2,415

87,46713,831

201141p.452012119


31188921

1990
Risk
Ulrich Beck1986Risk Society

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Risk Society

()

550

()

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()

()
1738

()

()

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()

()

()

WMO2008
2ppm
2100
13.5


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()

()

()

1992

1997
20082012
19905%

2012200912718
19215,000
2

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RMSRisk Management Solutions

20101122153720
201012810
60%
103,85278
209,60046
10
85%102004226,408
2008138,36687,476
200573,338
UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction,
UNISDR8

WEF

10

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WEF

2012

WEF


resilience

resilience
5R

11

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()Robustness

()Redundancy

()Resourcefulness

()Response

()Recovery

12

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Concept of Risk

Uncertainty


1.Whether
2.When
3.Circumstance
4.Uncertainty as to Extent of Consequence

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Chance of Loss

Probability of Loss01
01
0.50

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Exposure

15

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Torts

Hazard

Peril

Hazard

1.
2.

3.

Loss
Unintentional

Direct LossIndirect Loss

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1-1

1-1

Classification of Risks

17

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()Static Risk

1.
2.

3.

4.
5.
6.

()Dynamic Risk

1.
(1)

(2)

(3)


18

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(4)

2.
1970


(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)

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3.

J. SchumpeterInnovation Theory

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)

1.

2.

3.

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()Pure Risk

()Speculative Risk

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1-2

()

()

()

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()Objective Risk
Variation

51,000,000
5,000

5,5004,500
1,000

()Subjective Risk

()Property Risks

1.

2.
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3.

()Personnel Risks

()Liability Risks

Legal Liability Risk


Contractual Liability Risk

()Net Income Risks


Net
Income

()Business Risks

1-2

()Famliy & Individual Risks

1-3
24

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: .
., 2013.06

ISBN 978-957-11-7066-4 ()
1.
494.6

102005444

1J43








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