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Graham Allison

Kenneth Lieberthal Michel Oksenberg

fragmented authoritarian model of bureaucratic
politics Andrew Mertha FA 2.0

Mao in commandDeng in command

Allison

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102 8 20

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57

60

66

69

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121

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133

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141

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159

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183

190

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199

201

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211

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279

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46

3-1

82

3-2

90

3-3

98

3-4

105

3-5

114

3-6

117

3-7

126

3-8

127

3-9

128

4-1

142

4-2

145

5-1

168

5-2

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5-3

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5-4

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5-5

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5-6

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6-1

210

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6-3

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6-4

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6-5

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6-6

223

6-7

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7-2

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7-3

1950-1959

247

7-4

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7-6

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8-1

269

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3-1

4-1

147

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5-2

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6-2

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240

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ThucydidesPeloponnesian
War

utilitarianism
utilityprobability1
Graham T.
Allison
Essence of Decision 1962

rational actor model

David Singer, Inter-nation Inuence: A Formal Model, American Political Science Review,
vol. LXII (June 1963), p. 424; Bruce M. Russett, The Calculus of Deterrence, Journal of
Conflict Resolution, vol. VII (June 1963), pp. 97-109.

Graham T. Allison, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (Boston: Little,
Brown and Company, 1971). Allison1999

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Herbert Simon

bounded
rationalityoptimizing

satisfying3 Thomas C.
Shelling
4
5
organizational process
modelorganizational behavior model

routines

Phil Williams, Donald M. Goldstein, and Jay M. Shafritz, Classic Readings of International
Relations, 2nd edition (Belmont, CA: Thomson Wadsworth, 1999), p. 142.

Thomas C. Shelling, The Strategy of Conflict (NY: Oxford University Press, 1963), pp. 15-19.

James E. Dougherty and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr., Contending Theories of International

Relations: A Comprehensive Survey, 5th edition (New York: Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.,
2001), p. 571.

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6
governmental
or bureaucratic politics model

pulling and hauling

David A.
Welch

1949
6

Allison, Essence of Decision, p. 67.

Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile
Crisis, 2nd edition (NY: Longman, 1999), pp. 255-258.

David A. Welch, The Organizational Process and Bureaucratic Politics Paradigms: Retrospect
and Prospect, International Security, vol. 17, no. 2 (Fall 1992), pp. 112-146.

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10

Mao in command

1980

1994123

10

2001
31

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11

12

13
14

15

5
11

20078

12

Timothy Brook and B. Michael Frolic, eds., Civil Society in China (Armonk, NY: Sharpe,
1997); Rebecca R. Moore, Chinas Fledging Civil Society: A Force for Democratization?
World Policy Journal (Spring 2001), pp. 56-66.

13

Linda Jakobson and Dean Knox, New Foreign Policy Actors in China, SIPRI Policy Paper no.
26, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, September 2012, p. 24.

14

2004190

15

256

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16

fractured authority
17

18

16

Guobin Yang, The Internet and Civil Society in China: Coevolutionary Dynamics and Digital
Formations, in Lowell Dittmer and Guoli Liu, eds., Domestic Politics in Transition: Chinas
Deep Reform (Oxford: Rowman & Littleeld, 2006), pp. 303-318; Guobin Yang, The Power
of the Internet in China: Citizen Activism Online (NY: Columbia University Press, 2009).

17

Jakobson and Knox, New Foreign Policy Actors in China, pp. 48-49.

18

19581970
Yingyi Qian, The Process of Chinas Market
Transition, 1978-1998: The Evolutionary, Historical, and Comparative Perspectives, in
Dittmer and Liu, eds., Domestic Politics in Transition, pp. 244-246
1992
14

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A. Doak Barnett

19 John Lewis
20 Franz Schurmann

21

22

Lucian Pye
Richard Solomon

23

19

A. Doak Barnett, Cadres, Bureaucracy, and Political Power in China (N.Y.: Columbia
University Press, 1967).

20

John W. Lewis, Leadership in Communist China (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1963).

21

st
Franz Schurmann, Ideology and Organization in Communist China, 1 edition (Berkeley:
University of California Press, 1966).

22

95
2007121-13

23

Lucian Pye, The Spirit of Chinese Politics (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1968); Richard
Solomon, Maos Revolution and the Chinese Political Culture (Berkeley and LA: University
of California Press, 1971).

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10

24 70

Rational Model

A. Doak
Barnett 1974 Uncertain Passage
25

24

Chien-min Chao, A Critique of the Interest Group Approach to Communist Chinese

Studies, Issues & Studies (February 1986), pp. 12-28.

25

A. Doak Barnett, Uncertain Passage (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1974).

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11

Harry Harding

26

Power Model

Roderick MacFarquhar

27
28
29

26

Harry Harding, Organizing China (Stanford, Cal.: Stanford University Press, 1981).

27

Roderick MacFarquhar, The Origins of the Cultural Revolution, 2 vols. (NY: Columbia
University Press, 1974 and 1983).

28

Lucian Pye, The Dynamics of Chinese Politics (Cambridge: Oelgeschlager, Gunn, and Hain,
1981).

29

1976
1-13

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12

70

Fragmented
Authoritarianism Model
70

1950
70 cellular society

Kenneth LieberthalMichel
Oksenberg

fragmented authoritarianism model fragmented structure of

authority30

disjoined
80

30

Lieberthal and Oksenberg fragmented structure of authority Kenneth

Lieberthal and Michel Oksenberg, Policy Making in China: Leaders, Structures, and Processes
(Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1988), p. 22, Lieberthal and Lampton
fragmented authoritarianism model, Kenneth G. Lieberthal and David M. Lampton, eds.,
Bureaucracy, Politics, and Decision Making in Post-Mao China (Berkeley, CA: University of
California Press, 1992), p.11.

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31

1980

32 David M. Lampton
Bureaucracy, Politics, and
Decision Making in Post-Mao China

33

34

31

Lieberthal and Lampton, eds., Bureaucracy, Politics, and Decision Making in Post-Mao
China, p. 8.

32

Lieberthal and Oksenberg, Policy Making in China: Leaders, Structures, and Processes, p.
22; Lieberthal and Lampton, eds., Bureaucracy, Politics, and Decision Making in Post-Mao
China, pp. 7-8.

33

Lieberthal and Lampton, eds., Bureaucracy, Politics, and Decision Making in Post-Mao
China, p. 20.

34

Lieberthal and Lampton, eds., Bureaucracy, Politics, and Decision Making in Post-Mao
China, p. 11.

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14

35

Susan Shirk Edward E. Lawler

management by exception
80

36
Linda Jakobson

35

Lieberthal and Oksenberg, Policy Making in China: Leaders, Structures, and Processes, p. 22.

36

Susan L. Shirk, The Chinese Political System and the Political Strategy of Economic
Reform, in Lieberthal and Lampton, eds., Bureaucracy, Politics, and Decision Making in
Post-Mao China, p. 68.

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37

38

policy mix

37

Jakobson and Knox, New Foreign Policy Actors in China, pp. 17-18.

38

Lieberthal and Oksenberg, Policy Making in China: Leaders, Structures, and Processes,
p. 283. (A. Doak Barnett) The Making of Foreign Policy in China

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1950 1986
39

40
1958

1965 152
1966 162 152

8 41

1980

39

Lieberthal and Oksenberg, Policy Making in China: Leaders, Structures, and Processes, p.
270.

40

Lieberthal and Lampton, eds., Bureaucracy, Politics, and Decision Making in Post-Mao
China, p. 41.

41

Lieberthal and Lampton, eds., Bureaucracy, Politics, and Decision Making in Post-Mao
China, pp. 45-46.

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17

80

Carol Lee Hamrin

80
90

42 80

documentary politics

43

bureaucratic authoritarian model

42

Carol Lee Hamrin and Suisheng Zhao, Introduction: Core Issues in Understanding the
Decision Process, in Hamrin and Suisheng Zhao, eds., Decision-making in Dengs China:
Perspectives from Insiders (Armond, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1995), pp. xxxvii-xliv.

43

Guoguang Wu, Documentary Politics : Hypotheses, Process, and Case Studies, in Hamrin
and Zhao, eds., Decision-making in Dengs China: Perspectives from Insiders, pp. 24-38.

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18

80

centralized
authority

44
compartmentalization

45

90

Hamrin
The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy
WTO

46
44

Yan Jiaqi, The Nature of Chinese Authoritarianism, in Hamrin and Zhao, eds., Decisionmaking in Dengs China: Perspectives from Insiders, p. xxx.

45

Hamrin and Zhao, Introduction: Core Issues in Understanding the Decision Process, p.
xxxiii.

46

David M. Lampton, Chinas Foreign and National Security Policy-Making Process: Is It

Changing and Does It Matter? in David M. Lampton, ed., The Making of Chinese Foreign
and Security Policy in the Era of Reform, 1978-2000 (Stanford, Cal.: Stanford University
Press, 2001), pp. 9-10.

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1.

professionalization
specializationdifferentiation
1980
47
2. corporate pluralization48

3.
1984

1992 1988

1980
49

47

Suisheng Zhao, The Structure of Authority and Decision-Making: A Theoretical Framework,

in Hamrin and Zhao, eds., Decision-making in Dengs China: Perspectives from Insiders, p.
242.

48

David M. Lampton, Chinas Foreign and National Security Policy-Making Process: Is It

Changing and Does It Matter? p. 12. Corporate pluralization Hamrin
Bureaucratic Pluralism

49

Peter Cheung and James Tang, The External Relations of Chinas Provinces, in Lampton,
ed., The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform, 1978-2000, pp.
91-122.

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20

70

Lowell Dittmer
Avery Goldstein
Andrew
NathanTang Tsoupersonalistic

patron-client relationship50
informal politics51

bandwagon
balance-of-power
political action group

50

Andrew J. Nathan and Kellee S. Tsai, Factionalism: A New Institutionalist Restatement,

The China Journal, no. 34 (July 1995), pp. 157-192; Lowell Dittmer and Yu-Shan Wu,
Modernization of Factionalism in Chinese Politics, World Politics, vol. 47 (July 1995), pp.
467-494; Lowell Dittmer, Patterns of Elite Strife and Succession in Chinese Politics, The
China Quarterly, no. 123 (September 1990), pp. 405-430; Andrew J. Nathan, A Factionalism
Model for CCP Politics, The China Quarterly, no. 53 (January-March 1973); Lowell Dittmer,
The Changing Shape of Elite Power Politics, The China Journal, no. 45 (January 2001), pp.
53-67.

51

Dittmer and Wu, Modernization of Factionalism in Chinese Politics, pp. 467-494; Lowell
Dittmer, Patterns of Elite Strife and Succession in Chinese Politics, pp. 405-430; Lowell
Dittmer, The Changing Shape of Elite Power Politics, pp. 53-67.

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