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TESTIMONY

CHILD POLICY

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William H. Overholt

CT-244
2005 5
2005 5 19
(US-China Economic and Security Review Commission)

(The RAND Corporation)


William H. Overholt
2005 5 19

4400 2500 125


3 6

2020

1966 1976
peasant chiliasm

20

10

WTO

2004 GDP 70%


24%2004 606

201

19

20

10 30

1995 1.1
2005 3 6600
1994 5400
3000
WTO
125 3 6

1991

20 60

10

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10

5%
10%

12


IBM
IBM IBM

300400

20 80
90

13

1/2

14

20

20 90

20 30
DeSoto
20 70

1998
20 90
70%

15

20
11,000

16

12001300

2020

2020

17

ASEAN

2003 APEC

1870 1970

18

Herman KahnThe Emerging Japanese


Superstate
Herman Kahn
. Herman Kahn

19

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