5 12

Forecas
ting

Moving averages - 4 period

moving average

Data
Period
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

Demand
10
12
13
16
19
23
26
30
28
28
16
14

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Forecas
t
Error
Absolute

12,75
15
17,75
21
24,5
26,75
28
25,5
Total
Average

6,25
8
8,25
9
3,5
1,25
-12
-11,5

6,25
8
8,25
9
3,5
1,25
12
11,5

39,0625
64
68,0625
81
12,25
1,5625
144
132,25

12,75
1,5937
5
Bias

59,75

542,1875
67,7734
4
MSE
9,50602
9

7,46875
MAD
SE

Next
period

Squared

21,5

5 -13
Forecasting

Moving averages - 4 period moving

average

Abs
Pct Err

32,89%
34,78%
31,73%
30,00%
12,50%
04,46%
75,00%
82,14%
303,52
%
37,94
%
MAPE

Data
Period
January
February
March
April

Error analysis
Dema
nd
10
12
13
16

Forecast

Error

Absolute

Squared

May

19

12,75

6,25

6,25

39,0625

June

23

15

64

July
August
Septemb
er

26
30

17,75
21

8,25
9

8,25
9

68,0625
81

28

24,5

3,5

3,5

12,25

October
Novembe
r
Decembe
r

18

26,75

-8,75

8,75

76,5625

16

25,5

-9,5

9,5

90,25

14

23

-9

81

Total
Average

Next
period

19

7,75
62,25 512,1875
0,9687
5 7,78125 64,02344
Bias
MAD
MSE
SE
9,239296

|%
Error|

0,3289
47
0,3478
26
0,3173
08
0,3
0,125
0,4861
11
0,5937
5
0,6428
57
3,1417
99
0,3927
25
MAPE

5 14
Regression/Trend
analysis

Forecasting

Data

Error analysis

Period
Past
period 1
Past
period 2
Past
period 3

Demand
(y)

Period(x)

Forecast

3,227273

4,309091

5,390909

Past
period 4
Past
period 5

6,472727

10

7,554545

Past
period 6

8,636364

9,718182

10,8

13

11,88182

10

14

10

12,96364

11

15

11

14,04545

Past
period
Past
period
Past
period
Past
period
Past
period

Total

Slope

2,145454
55
1,081818
18

Next
period

15,1272
727

Intercept

Average

Square |%
Error
Absolute d
Error|
0,7727 0,77272 0,5971 0,1931
27
7
07
82
1,6909 1,69090 2,8591 0,2818
09
9
74
18
1,3909 1,39090 1,9346 0,3477
1
9
28
27
1,4727 1,47272 2,1689 0,2945
3
7
26
45
2,4454 2,44545 5,9802 0,2445
55
5
48
45
0,6363 0,63636 0,4049 0,0795
6
4
59
45
2,7181 2,71818 7,3885 0,3883
8
2
12
12
-1,8
1,1181
82
1,0363
64
0,9545
45
-9,8E15
-8,9E16
Bias

1,8
1,11818
2
1,03636
4
0,95454
5
16,0363
6
1,45785
1
MAD
SE

3,24
1,2503
31
1,0740
5
0,9111
57
27,809
09
2,5280
99

MSE
MAPE
1,7578
11

12
Correlati
on

0,2
0,0860
14
0,0740
26
0,0636
36
2,2533
52
0,2048
5

0,9068
39

5-16
Multiple
regression

Data
GPA
A

SAT Scores
2.9

421

2.93

377

585

3.45

690

3.66

608

2.88

390

2.15

415

2.53

481

3.22

729

501

2.75

613

3.9

709

1.6

16

Error analysis
Foreca
Square |%
st
Error
Absolute d
Error|
2.6280 0.2719
0.0739 0.0937
4
6 0.27196
62
79
2.5118 0.4181 0.41819 0.1748 0.1427
05
95
5
87
29
3.0612 0.0612 0.06127 0.0037 0.0204
78
8
8
55
26
3.3386 0.1113 0.11134 0.0123 0.0322
56
44
4
97
74
3.1220 0.5379 0.53796 0.2894 0.1469
37
63
3
04
84
2.5461 0.3338 0.33385 0.1114 0.1159
47
53
3
58
21
2.6121 0.4621
0.2136 0.2149
9
9 0.46219
19
72
2.7865 0.2565 0.25654 0.0658
42
4
2
14 0.1014
3.4416 0.2216 0.22168 0.0491 0.0688
82
8
2
43
45
2.8393 0.8393 0.83937 0.7045 0.4196
76
8
6
51
88
3.1352 0.3852 0.38524 0.1484 0.1400
46
5
6
14
89
3.3888 0.5111 0.51115 0.2612 0.1310
48
52
2
76
65
1.5581 0.0418 0.04184 0.0017 0.0261
53
47
7
51
54
Averag
-1.2E- 0.34251 0.1623 0.1272

e
Coefficie
nts

1.5158
86

16

0.002642

41

Bias

MAD

MSE
MAPE
0.0126
17

SE
Forecast
1.5528
7

Correlati
on

14

0.7695
22

5 -17
Forecasting

Period
Past
period
Past
period
Past
period
Past
period
Past
period
Past
period
Past
period

Exponential smoothing

0,300000
01

Alpha
Data

Error Analysis
Demand

Forecast

Error

56

Absolut
e

Square
d

|%
Error|

0,3333
33

4,6

-0,6

0,6

0,36

0,15

4,42

0,58

0,58

0,116

10

4,594

5,406

5,406

6,2158

1,7842

6,75106

0,24894

1,7842
0,2489
4

0,3364
29,224
84
3,1833
69
0,0619
71

0,5406
0,2230
25
0,0355
63

Past
period
Past
period
Past
period
Past
period

6,825742

2,174258

13

7,478019

5,521981

10

14

9,134614

4,865386

11

15

10,59423

4,40577

Total

26,38653

Average

2,638653
Bias

2,1742
58
5,5219
81
4,8653
86
4,4057
7
27,586
54
2,7586
54
MAD
SE

Next
period

11,9159
608

5-18

Regression/Trend
analysis

Forecasting

Data
YEAR

RIDERSHIP
(y)

NUMBER OF
TOURISTS(x)

YEAR 1

15

YEAR 2

10

YEAR 3

13

YEAR 4

15

4,7273 0,2415
98
84
30,492 0,4247
27
68
23,671 0,3475
98
28
19,410 0,2937
81
18
115,46 2,7061
9
19
11,546 0,2706
9
12
MSE
MAPE
3,7991
62

YEAR 5

25

14

YEAR 6

27

15

YEAR 7

24

16

YEAR 8

20

12

YEAR 9

27

14

YEAR 10

44

20

YEAR 11

34

15

YEAR 12

17

Interce
pt
Slope

5.060077
519
1.593023
256

Next
period

25.76937
984

13

Forecasts and Error

Analysis
Foreca
Square Abs Pct
st
Error
Absolute
d
Err
16.211 1.2112
1.211240 1.4671
24
4
31
03 08.07%
8.2461 1.7538
1.753875 3.0760
24
76
969
81 17.54%
14.618 1.6182
1.618217 2.6186
22
2
054
26 12.45%
11.432 3.5678
3.567829 12.729
17
29
457
41 23.79%
27.362
2.362403 5.5809
4 2.3624
101
48 09.45%
28.955 1.9554
1.955426 3.8236
43
3
357
92 07.24%
30.548 6.5484
6.548449 42.882
45
5
612
19 27.29%
24.176 4.1763
4.176356 17.441
36
6
589
95 20.88%
27.362
0.362403 0.1313
4 0.3624
101
36 01.34%

36.920
54
28.955
43
16.211
24
Total
Avera
ge

7.0794
7.079457 50.118
57
364
72 16.09%
5.0445
5.044573 25.447
74
643
72 14.84%
0.7887
0.788759 0.6221
6
69
42 04.64%
-5.3E36.46899 165.93 163.61
15
225
99
%
-4.4E- 3.039082
13.82
13.63
16
687
833
%
Bias
MAD
MSE
MAPE
4.073
SE
572
Correlati
on

0.916
666

5-20
forecasting result
Measure
Error Measures
Bias (Mean Error)
MAD (Mean Absolute
Deviation)
MSE (Mean Squared Error)
Standard Error (denom=n2-0=10)
MAPE (Mean Absolute
Percent Error)
Regression line
RIDERSHIP = 5,06
+ 1,59 * NUMBER OF
TOURISTS
Statistics
Correlation coefficient
Coefficient of determination
(r^2)

Value
0
3.04
13.83
4.07
0.14

0.92
0.84

details
and error
analysis
1 15

2 10

3 13
4 15

6
4

16.2
1
8.25
14.6
2
11.4

-1.21

1.21

1.47 0.08

1.75

1.75

3.08 0.18

-1.62
3.57

1.62
3.57

2.62 0.12
12.73 0.24

5 25

14

6 27

15

7 24

16

8 20

12

9 27

14

10 44

20

11 34

15

12 7
TOTALS
AVERAGE

Betas

7
271

132

22.58

11

5.06

1.59

3
27.3
6
28.9
6
30.5
5
24.1
8
27.3
6
36.9
2
28.9
6
16.2
1

-2.36

2.36

5.58 0.09

-1.96

1.96

3.82 0.07

-6.55

6.55

42.88 0.27

-4.18

4.18

17.44 0.21

-0.36

0.36

0.13 0.01

7.08

7.08

50.12 0.16

5.04

5.04

25.45 0.15

0.79

0.79

0.62 0.05

36.47

165.94 1.64

0
3.04
13.83 0.14
(Bias
)
(MAD)
(MSE)
(MAPE)
Std err

4.07

ANOVA summary
Sum

Mean
square

Degrees of Freedom

SSR (Sum of squares due to

regression)

872.98

872.98

SSE (Sum of the squared error)

165.94

10

16.59

SST (Sum of the squares total)

1038.92

11

F statistic

52.61

Probability

sum of square computations

NUMBER
OF
RIDERSH TOURIST
YEAR
IP
S
1 15

(y-yBAR)^2

yHAT
57.51

16.21

(yyHAT)^2

(yHATyBAR)^2

1.47 40.6

2 10

158.34

8.25

3 13

91.84

14.62

2.62 63.44

4 15

57.51

11.43

12.73 124.35

5 25

14

27.36

5.58 22.84

6 27

15

19.51

28.96

3.82 40.6

7 24

16

30.55

42.88 63.44

8 20

12

6.67

24.18

17.44 2.54

9 27

14

19.51

27.36

0.13 22.84

10 44

20

458.67

36.92

50.12 205.56

11 34

15

130.34

28.96

25.45 40.6

12 17

31.17

16.21

0.62 40.6

5.84

Totals

3.08 205.56

1038.92
SST

165.94 872.98
SSE

SSR

what is the expected ridership if 10 million tourist visit the

city
RIDERSHIP = 5.06 + 1.59 * NUMBER OF
TOURISTS
RIDERSHIP = 5.06 + 1.59 * 10000000
=1590005.06

d. If there are no tourists at all, explain the predicted riders

RIDERSHIP = 5.06 + 1.59 * NUMBER OF TOURISTS
RIDERSHIP = 5.06 + 1.59 *
0
= 5.06