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Yacine Kanoun
Opportunity Parameters
Underlying Timing of Execution Transaction Entry Price Stop Time Stop Time Horizon Target Notional Potential Loss (Notional Potential Gain
SP500 September Future Contract (or June then Roll) May/June 2014 Short 1930/1950 2050 Kept safe to avoid crystallisation of loss to a minimum probability 15th of July if above 1930 still Exit Flat June/September 2014 1750/1650 Take Profit 5% - Low Probability as above resistance (see chart) 10/15% - Significant Probability
Yacine Kanoun
Most interesting opportunities are presented after something unlikely ends up occurring.
Here the price action is getting weak and most traders do not believe in a move higher above 1900.
In the next few weeks there may be a surprising move to the region 1930/1950 which would provide a great opportunity. Technically, 1950 in May/June is PERFECT Something that happens very rarely.
Yacine Kanoun
I have been forecasting a TOP at 1950 in May 2014 since December 2013
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000229859&play=1
Yacine Kanoun
These are high speed logarithmic trendlines and the space is becoming narrow
Yacine Kanoun
Yacine Kanoun
Analysis - 1
Elliott: Since October 2011, we are completing a big wave III which was itself in 5 waves and we are currently completing the wave 5 of 5 of that 5th wave. The Elliott wave count is reaching completion and a big wave IV similar to the correction in Mar 2012 is to be expected.
Fibonacci: 1950 is a perfect target in many ways. (wave 5 of III = Wave 3 of III and within wave 5, wave 5 of 5 = wave 3 of 5).
Trendlines converging at 1950/May14: there is an impressive number of trendlines converging since 1989 that alone would be enough.
Pricing: 110 x 17 = 1880 Time statistics: 23months without a 10% correction Rare and reaching historical extremes.
Time statistics: The rally just had its 5th year birthday which generally coincide with cyclical rallies even in secular rallies.
Yacine Kanoun
Analysis - 2
Growth: Sales growth is limited at 2/3% and roughly half what it was in the 2000/2007 rally.
Conclusion: the progress is limited beyond 1950 in the next few months and a shakeout is likely in the cards. 1950/May2014 is a great short Like markets rarely offer.
Money management: once entered the trade is safe for many weeks and the odds of a large move will severely skewed down. If nothing happens after mid july, we may elect to cancel the trade at limited cost or small profit.
Yacine Kanoun
Contact Details
Yacine Kanoun
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