OFM 2007.1 Forecast Analysis Fundamentals

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OilField Manager 2007
Forecast Analysis
Fundamentals
Workflow/Solutions Training

Schlumberger Information Solutions
January, 2008

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Copyright Notice
2008 Schlumberger. All rights reserved.

No part of this manual may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or translated in
any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and
recording, without the prior written permission of Schlumberger Information Solutions,
5599 San Felipe, Suite 100, Houston, TX 77056-2722.

Disclaimer
Use of this product is governed by the License Agreement. Schlumberger makes no
warranties, express, implied, or statutory, with respect to the product described herein and
disclaims without limitation any warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular
purpose. Schlumberger reserves the right to revise the information in this manual at any
time without notice.

Trademark Information
*Mark of Schlumberger. Certain other products and product names are trademarks or
registered trademarks of their respective companies or organizations.

OilField Manager 2007 Forecast Analysis Fundamentals i

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Table of Contents
About this Manual ...................................................................................................1
Prerequisites........................................................................................................................1
Learning Objectives.............................................................................................................2
What You Will Need............................................................................................................2
What to Expect....................................................................................................................2
Course Conventions............................................................................................................3
Icons.....................................................................................................................................4
Module 1 Creating Forecast Analysis.............................................................7
Prerequisites........................................................................................................................7
Learning Objectives.............................................................................................................7
Lesson 1 Forecast Scenario............................................................................................7
Setting up a Forecast Scenario...................................................................................7
Lesson 2 Edit the Graph................................................................................................12
Editing a Graph..........................................................................................................13
Exercise 1 Moving and Editing the Graph Header................................................16
Exercise 2 Resizing the Graph..............................................................................17
Exercise 3 Moving the Legend and Axis Labels...................................................17
Exercise 4 Editing the Lower Limit.........................................................................17
Exercise 5 Creating and Saving a Case................................................................18
Lesson 3 Different Forecasting Features......................................................................19
Using Hyperbolic Fit Type.........................................................................................22
Lesson 4 Change the Fit Type and Edit the Scenario..................................................27
Changing the Fit Type and Editing the Scenario......................................................27
Lesson 5 Add a Schedule..............................................................................................29
Adding a Schedule....................................................................................................29
Exercise 6 Creating a Forecast..............................................................................29
Exercise 7 Using Exponential Fit Type..................................................................29
Adding Schedules......................................................................................................34
Exercise 8 Using Shut-in activities.........................................................................37
Exercise 9 Digitizing Points....................................................................................37
Question.....................................................................................................................40
Lesson 6 Manual Match for Empirical Solutions...........................................................40
Performing Historical Regression..............................................................................41
Review Questions .............................................................................................................42

ii OilField Manager 2007 Forecast Analysis Fundamentals

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Summary...........................................................................................................................43
Module 2 Forecast ..........................................................................................45
Learning Objectives...........................................................................................................45
Lesson 7 Output Features.............................................................................................45
Exercise 10 Using Output Features.......................................................................46
Lesson 8 Cases.............................................................................................................48
Exercise 11 Working with Cases...........................................................................48
Lesson 9 Auto Decline...................................................................................................49
Exercise 12 Using Auto Decline............................................................................49
Exercise 13 Using Auto Decline Feature...............................................................50
Exercise 14 Performing Forecast Analysis............................................................50
Summary...........................................................................................................................51
Module 3 Additional Forecasts......................................................................53
Lesson 10 Water-Cut versus Cum.Oil Analysis .........................................................53
Performing Water-Cut vs. Cum. Oil Analysis............................................................53
Exercise 15 Scheduling Your Reserves................................................................56
Lesson 11 P/Z vs. Cum.Gas Analysis ........................................................................56
Creating a P/Z vs. Cu. Gas Forecast........................................................................56
Exercise 16 Performing Gas Forecasting..............................................................60
Exercise 17 Performing Additional Analyses.........................................................61
Summary...........................................................................................................................61
Module 4 Fetkovich Type Curve Analysis....................................................63
Lesson 12 Fetkovich Type Curve Analysis (Late-Time) ............................................64
Using Fetkovich Type Curve Analysis......................................................................64
Question.....................................................................................................................71
Summary...........................................................................................................................72
Module 5 Analytical Transient Solutions......................................................75
Lesson 13 Analytical Transient Solution.....................................................................75
Setting Up a Base Forecast Case Using Analytical Transient Solution..................75
Exercise 18 Comparing the Results......................................................................77

OilField Manager 2007 Forecast Analysis Fundamentals iii

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Question.....................................................................................................................79
Exercise 19 Performing an Analytical Transient Analysis.....................................79
Lesson 14 Combine All Three Solutions.....................................................................80
Combining Three Types of Solutions........................................................................80
Exercise 20 Perform a Forecast............................................................................84
Summary...........................................................................................................................84
Module 6 Retrieving Forecast Results..........................................................87
Prerequisites......................................................................................................................87
Lesson 15 Calculated Variables..................................................................................87
Creating Calculated Variables...................................................................................87
Exercise 21 Verifying Report Results....................................................................89
Exercise 22 Creating Variables to Retrieve Data..................................................91
Exercise 23 Creating Bubble and Grid Maps........................................................92
Summary...........................................................................................................................93

iv OilField Manager 2007 Forecast Analysis Fundamentals

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Schlumberger
About this Manual

OilField Manager 2007 Forecast Analysis Fundamentals 1

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About this Manual
Welcome to Forecast Analysis Fundamentals in OilField
Manager (OFM). In this course you will learn how to use empirical
and analytical techniques to forecast production and retrieve
forecast information for further studies.
Formerly known as Decline Curve Analysis (DCA), the Forecast
module in OFM has been enhanced to facilitate more
sophisticated analyses. In OFM 2007, the Forecast module
consists of four major categories (techniques):
Empirical
Fetkovich
Locke & Sawyer
Analytical Transient solutions.
Forecasts can be done on single well (completion) level, category
level, or on a group of wells. If you choose to perform the forecast
on a group of wells, the forecast result will be slightly different than
that of grouped individual well forecasts (i.e., summing the
individual forecasts). This is the issue of forecast of a group vs.
group of the forecasts.
In addition to basic forecasts like rate vs. time, rate vs. cum, OFM
allows you to perform more advanced techniques such as ratios
and cuts vs. cum. Fetkovich, Locke & Sawyer and Analytical
Transient Solution techniques are type-curve analyses, which
require better understanding of the reservoir model as well as the
parameters controlling the well/entity behavior. In this module, you
will focus on using the Empirical method of forecasting. There is a
module covering the basics of Fetkovich and Analytical Transient
methods. More in-depth coverage of the type curve-based
methods will be addressed in more advanced OFM training
courses.
Interactive manual match techniques for empirical solutions are
introduced in this version of OFM. OFM initially plots control points
based on historical or digitized data regression. Once a control
point is moved, the manual match method is automatically
activated, and you have total control of how the match should be
performed.
The Well Deliverability Analysis enables you to analyze data from
Flow-After-Flow tests (Back Pressure Analyses), Isochronal Tests,
and Modified Isochronal Tests using the following empirical
equation, q=C(Pws^2 - Pwf ^2) ^n.
Prerequisites
We recommend that you complete the OFM Fundamentals and
OFM Mapping Applications training courses before taking OFM
Forecast Analysis Fundamentals.
About this Manual
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Learning Objectives
In this course, you will successfully learn how to:
create a Forecast analysis
use the output features
work with Cases
use the Auto Decline Feature
perform various Forecasts
perform a Fetkovich Type Curve analysis
perform an Analytical Transient analysis
retrieve Forecast results.
What You Will Need
In this workflow, you will need the following hardware and
applications in order to perform the workflow:
OFM properly installed and licensed
Microsoft Access
Training datasets
What to Expect
In each module within this training material, you will encounter the
following:
Overview of the module
Prerequisites to the module (if necessary)
Learning objectives
Lesson(s), which explain about a subject or an activity in the
workflow
Procedure(s), which show the sequence of steps needed to
perform a task
Exercises, which allow you to practice a task by using the
steps in the procedure with a data set
Summary of the module
Questions about the module
Scenario-based exercises.
You will also encounter notes, tips and best practices.
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Course Conventions
The instructions for the procedures and exercises in this manual
are written using the following conventions.

Characters typed in Bold Represents references to dialog box
names and application areas or
commands to be performed. For
example, Open the Open Asset
Model dialog box.
Used to denote keyboard
commands. For example, Type a
name and press Enter.
Identifies the name of Schlumberger
software applications, such as
Petrel or GeoFrame.
Identifies the first use of important
terms or concepts. For example,
Stacking of data
Characters inside <>triangle
brackets
Indicate values that the user must
supply. "sql pl us
<user name>/ <passwor d>",
usually with a sentence that defines
the values.
Characters typed in italics Represent file names or directories.
"... edit the file lease.dat and..."
Represent lists and option areas in
a window, such as Attributes list or
Select Options area.
Characters typed in f i xed-
wi dt h
Represent code, sql, and other
literal text that the user sees or
types. For example: sql pl us
<user name>/ <passwor d>".

Instructions to make menu selections are also written using bold
text and an arrow indicating the selection sequence, as shown
below:
1. Click File menu > Save (the Save Asset Model File dialog
box opens.)
OR
Click the Save Model toolbar button.
An OR is used to identify an alternate procedure.

NOTE: Some of the
conventions used in this
manual indicate the
information to enter, but are
not part of the information
For example: Quotation
marks and information
between brackets typically
indicate the information you
should enter. Do not include
the quotation marks or
brackets when you type your
information unless they are
clearly part of the syntax
(e.g., a variable definition).
About this Manual
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Icons
Throughout this manual, you will find icons in the margin
representing various kinds of information. These icons serve as at-
a-glance reminders of their associated text. See below for
descriptions of what each icon means.

Prerequisites
This icon identifies any
prerequisites that are
required for the course, or
for individual modules.

Learning Objectives
This icon identifies any
learning objectives set out
for the course, or for the
current module.

What you will need
This icon indicates any
applications, hardware,
datasets, or other material
required for the course.

Procedures
This icon identifies the
steps required to perform a
given task.

Exercise
This icon indicates that its
your turn to practice the
procedure.

Review Questions
review questions at the end
of each module.

Tips
This icon points you to a tip
that will make your work
easier.

Notes
This icon indicates that the
following information is
particularly important.

Best Practices
This icon indicates the best
way to perform a given
task when different options
are available.

Warnings
This icon indicates when
you need to proceed with
extreme caution.

Questions
questions at the end of
each lesson.

Lessons
This icon identifies a
lesson, which covers a
particular topic.
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NOTES

About this Manual
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NOTES

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Creating Forecast Analysis


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Module 1 Creating Forecast
Analysis
Forecasting provides functionality that enables you to define
named scenarios through the Scenario Manager. You can use
the Scenario Manager to create, edit, rename, copy and delete
scenarios; set the default scenario for a forecast case; and apply a
predefined scenario to the current working scenario.
Prerequisites
The first lesson of this module requires the Prod_Wells98.txt file.
This file was created in OFM Fundamentals. If you do not have
the Prod_Wells98.txt file, please take some time to set the query
and create the file.
The definition of the query is (Monthlyprod.Oil >50) & (Date >=
19980101), the criteria is met 3 times, and the Consecutively
option box is checked.
Learning Objectives
In this section, you will be introduced to the fundamentals of
creating forecast analysis. You will successfully learn how to
perform the following procedures within this workflow:
set up a forecast scenario
edit a graph
work with different forecast features
change the fit type
add a schedule
perform a Manual Match for Empirical Solutions.
Lesson 1 Forecast Scenario
In the Demo2007 database, about half of the wells are not
productive, and approximately 80% of the other wells have
already stopped producing. For this lesson you will use the active
producers after 1998.
Setting up a Forecast Scenario
To set up a forecast scenario:
1. Start OFM and open the Demo2007.ofm workspace.
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2. From the Filter pane, select the Well List node, right-click and
select Open.
The Well List window displays.

3. Select Prod_Wells98.txt and click Open.
4. From the Filter pane, select the newly created filter to apply
the conditions to the basemap.
5. Click to group all the wells.
6. Select Analysis > Forecast. The forecast tabbed page is
displayed in the OFM main window.
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Now set up your default scenario. The settings are applied
each time you start the Forecast module.
7. Select Edit > Scenario Manager. The Scenario Manager
window displays.

8. Highlight the DefaultScenario from the Scenarios list and
click Edit.
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The Edit Scenario window displays.

9. Select Oil from the Phase/Analysis list field.
10. Select Date from the Time (Date) list field.
11. The Cum.Oil variable should be Oil.Cum (a monthly
frequency variable); the Oil Rate variable is Oil.CalDay.
12. Go through all other phases (Gas and Water) and Ratios
(GOR, WOR, Water Cut, and Oil Cut) and set them up
accordingly. Reselect the Oil phase.
You will work on the Oil phase and use the Empirical method.
13. Select the Historical Regression tab.

IMPORTANT: Note the units
and multipliers beside each
variable association in the
Variable Association section
of the Edit Scenario window
on the Flow Model tab. The
variables selected for
association (whether it is a
table variable or a calculated
variable) must have the
same units and multipliers,
or the forecasts will be
inconsistent and incorrect.
The units and multipliers for
table variables or calculated
variables are defined in the
Edit Schema Tables or the
Calculated Variables
window, respectively.
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14. Select Best Method from the Method section of the dialog.

15. Select the Forecast tab.

NOTE: The Forecast tab
offers many options. Please
read the online help to obtain
additional information. For
example, the online help will
assist you with information
about when to use Last
Historical Rate and when to
use From Historical.
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16. Use the table below to specify the following values for
Schedule #1.
Schedule #1
Start Time Months from End, starting at 0 (zero) months
Start Rate Last Historical Rate
Reserve Type Proven-Developed
End Time Months from Start, set for 60 months (5 years)
End Rate 1
Decline Type Historical Regression

17. Click OK. The Edit Scenario window closes, and you are
returned to the Scenario Manager window.
18. Click Apply.
A confirmation dialog displays, prompting you to confirm. Click
Yes to apply these settings to the current Case. Click Close to
complete the set-up of the default parameters.
Lesson 2 Edit the Graph
Now that the default forecast scenario is set, it is time to work on
the appearance of the graph.
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Editing a Graph
1. Select Edit > Graph, or right-click on the graph and select the
Graph option from the menu. The Edit Plot window displays.
The Edit Plot window in the Forecast module is similar to the
Edit Plot window in the Plot module.

2. Click OK.
3. Locate the Graph settings section of the Properties pane.
4. Click in the field to the right of Graph Setup. This action
enables the Graph Setup button.

5. Click the button to display the Edit Plot window and select the
variables you wish to display, or clear the checkbox of the
parameters you do not want to display and click OK.
The Edit Plot window closes and you are returned to the
graph.
6. Locate the Headers section of the Properties pane.
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7. Click in the field to the right of Setup. This action enables the
Setup button.

8. Click Setup.
The Headers window displays.

9. Click Add. A row is inserted into the Headers window.
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10. Click Assist. The Edit Header window displays. Enter
"For ecast " + @Name( ) .

11. Click OK.
The Edit Header window closes and you are returned to the
Headers window.

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12. Add another header that reports todays date. The definition is
@f mt dat e( @t oday( ) , "mm/ dd/ yyyy") . Your Headers
window should resemble the image pictured below.

13. Click OK.
The Headers window closes and the graph displays on the
Forecast tabbed page.
14. In the next three exercises you will move and edit the
Header/Label Fonts, resize the graph, and move the legend
labels to get an output similar to the one pictured below.

Exercise 1 Moving and Editing the Graph
Header
In this exercise you will move and edit the graph header created in
the previous lesson.
1. Move the header, by using you left mouse button in a drag-
and-drop operation.
2. To edit the headers, double-click on the header. This action
displays the Headers window.
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Exercise 2 Resizing the Graph
1. Right-click on the graph.
2. Select Graph Move/Size.
Exercise 3 Moving the Legend and Axis
Labels
In this exercise you will move the legend and axis labels so your
graph is similar to the image pictured above.
1. Move the Legend and/or Axis Label by using your left mouse
button to drag-and-drop or highlight the item to move. Then
select Move from the shortcut click menu.
2. Modify the Legend/Axis Label fonts by right-clicking on the
label you wish to modify and selecting Font from the shortcut
menu.
Exercise 4 Editing the Lower Limit
In this exercise you will digitize a lower limit line to the points used
in the regression, and set limit points used in the regression to
those in a specified data range.
1. Select Edit > Limits > Lower.
2. Click to draw the line under the last declining portion of the
historical curve, as shown.

NOTE: When applying the
Lower Limit line, any data
points below and to the right
or left of the line are
excluded.
When drawing the line, the
right mouse click gives you
the options to add a point,
erase a point, erase all
points, or select Done.
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3. When the action is complete, right-click and select Done from
the shortcut menu.

Exercise 5 Creating and Saving a Case
The Case dialog enables you to create new Decline Curve
Analysis Cases. In this exercise you will create and save a case.
1. Select File > Cases. The Case window displays.

2. Click OK to save the case as Case1.
3. (Optional) You can save to another case using Save to
Different Case by selecting File > Save to Different Case.

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OFM stores this forecast against a group of wells. You must
now provide a name for this group so OFM can store it and
recall it at a later time.
If you do not suppress warning messages, OFM provides a
message to remind you that you must recall this group name
before the saved group forecast can be viewed in other
modules.
Lesson 3 Different Forecasting
Features
In this lesson you will work with different forecasting features.
1. Locate the Step toolbar at the top of the OFM main window.
2. Click Next. The BLUE_1:Ge_6 well displays.

3. Place a lower limit on the data as shown to exclude the first
and the last two data points. Right-click to select Limits >
Lower.
4. Select Done when finished.

The starting rate is set at Last Historical Rate, which may not
be very good with insufficient historical data and with the last
historical rate excluded.
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5. Select Edit > Scenario. The Current Scenario window
displays.

6. Select the Forecast tab and select Last Fit Rate from the Start
Rate list.
7. Click OK. The Current Scenario window closes. Save the
forecast (File > Save or click the Save button).

NOTE: The best-fit case for
historical regression is
Exponential. Excluding the
first few data points that are
not representative of the
wells decline behavior, the
best fit should be hyperbolic.
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8. Click Next. The forecast for BLUE_1:He_0 displays based
on the default case.

9. Place the lower limit as shown, right-click, and select Done.

10. Select Edit > Scenario. The Current Scenario window
displays for the current case (BLUE_1:He_0).
11. Select the Forecast tab, and select Last Historical Date from
the Start Time list.
12. Click OK. Save the forecast. The graph displays.

NOTE: The start time is at
the last date of the project. In
this case, you may want to
start forecasting from the last
historical date of the well.
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13. Click Next. The working forecast for BLUE_5:Sc_0
displays.

Even though it appears to be a good fit, and the forecast looks
acceptable, there are things that you can do to obtain a better
result.

14. Place a lower limit (and upper limit if needed) to rule out the
anomalous data points (noise), for example, at the beginning
of the production history.
Using Hyperbolic Fit Type
1. Locate the Historical Match section of the Properties pane.

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2. Set the Fit Type to Hyperbolic.
3. Set the b Value Method to User.
4. Set the User value to 0.6 (if you do not enter your own b-
value, OFM selects the best b-value to use Hyperbolic
regression).

5. Select Edit > Scenario and select the Forecast tab.
6. From the Start Rate list, select From Fit.

7. Click OK.

NOTE: In the Decline
Parameters Type list box,
the Historical Regression
option is selected. It means
that the forecast will be the
continuation of the historical
hyperbolic regression. You
can also select Hyperbolic in
the Decline Type list box,
and then enter the value of
0.6 for the b-value. The
result should be similar if you
enter a value for decline rate
that is close to the default
(calculated) decline case.

NOTE That the last historical
rate is already below the
economic limit. Thus there is
no default forecast on this
well. Still, you can
reasonably perform the
forecast on this well.
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8. Click Next. The forecast for GREEN_4:Ad_3BU displays.

.
9. Place a lower limit as shown in the image below.

10. Select Edit > Scenario, and select the Forecast tab.
11. Select Last Historical Date for Start Time.
12. Select From Fit for Start Rate.
13. From the Decline Parameters Type list field select
Exponential.
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14. From the Decline Parameters Rate list field select User
Defined and enter 0.01 for Decline Rate.

15. Click OK. The current scenario window closes, and you are
returned to the OFM main window.

16. Click Next. The forecast for GREEN_6:Li_1C displays.
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17. Place an upper limit as shown in the image below.

18. From the Properties pane, modify the following settings from
the History Match section.
19. Set the Fit Type value to Hyperbolic.
20. Set the b Value Method to Range.
21. Set the Minimum and Maximum values to 0.3 and 0.6,
respectively.
22. Click Next. The forecast for ORANGE_18:De_3 displays.
23. Place a lower limit, as shown in the image below.
24. Place an upper limit, as shown in the image below.

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Lesson 4 Change the Fit Type and
Edit the Scenario
In this lesson you will change the Fit Type and edit the scenario.
Changing the Fit Type and Editing the Scenario
1. From the Properties pane change the Fit Type to
Exponential.
2. Select Edit > Scenarios.
4. Select Last Historical Date for Start Time.
5. Select Last Fit Rate for Start Rate.
6. Click OK.

7. Save the forecast.
8. Click Next. The forecast for ORANGE_19:Ad_1A displays.

This well has a good history of production. As seen, the
decline trend from 1984 to 1994 could be identified as the
common trend of the well. Somewhere in 1996, a workover
was successfully completed with significant increase in
production afterwards. The decline trend after workover has
been different from the common trend. Further studies of this
completion indicate that the well would follow this current trend
for a short period and then return to the historical best-fit trend.
This will be a case to apply a multiple schedule forecast.
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9. Set the lower limit as shown in the image below.

10. Set the upper limit to exclude the points that constitute the
spike in late 1995, early 1996.
11. Select Edit > Scenario.
12. Select the Forecast tab. Specify the following:
Start Time: Months from End. Enter 0 in the adjoining field.
Start Rate: Last Historical Rate.
End Time: Months from Start. Enter 30 (months) in the
adjoining field.
End Rate: 1.
Decline Parameter Type: Exponential.
Rate: User Defined and 0.03 in the adjoining field.

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Lesson 5 Add a Schedule
In this lesson you will add a schedule.
Adding a Schedule
1. Click Add to add Schedule #2
2. Specify the following:
Start Time - Months from End. Enter 0 in the adjoining
field.
Start Rate - Previous.
End Time - Months from Start. Enter 30 in the adjoining
field.
End Rate - 1.
Decline Type - Historical Regression.
3. Click OK.
4. Click Next. The forecast for ORANGE_23:Li_1C displays.
Exercise 6 Creating a Forecast
1. Using what you have learned, do the forecast for this well.
The trend from mid-1994 to the last historical date could well
determine the wells behavior for forecasting.
Exercise 7 Using Exponential Fit Type
1. Click Next. The graph for ORANGE_26:Cl_3 displays.

For this well, the last historical rate is below the economic limit,
therefore, no default forecast can be carried out. The
production (decline) trend of this well is easily identified.
However, the forecast stops before the end of the forecast
period due to the forecast rate reaching economic limit first.
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2. Set the lower limit to exclude the first and the last production
data points as desired.
3. From the Properties pane, set the Fit Type to Exponential.
6. Select Last Fit Rate from the Start Rate list.
7. Click OK.

8. (Optional) If you select Best Fit from the Method choices, OFM
uses hyperbolic regression in this case. Still the forecast stops
before it reaches the time limit. Save the forecast.

9. Take a look at the legend. The Forecast Ended By field
reads Rate. That means the specified End Rate is met before
the forecast End Time.

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10. Click Next. The forecast for ORANGE_31:De_1 displays.

This well has produced consistently throughout its production
history. Somewhere in the second half of 1997, the well
experienced an increase in production, and the decline trend
for this well should follow this trend instead of the overall trend
that takes into account data points from previous production
periods.
11. Set the lower limit as shown in the image below.

13. Select the Forecast tab and enter 150 (to verify the well
reaches economic limit before the time limit) in the adjoining
field of Ending Time >Months from Start.
14. Click OK.

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Read the legend. The remaining reserve is about 31 Mbbl.
The value of EUR is about 347 Mbbl. The Forecast Ended By
field is Rate.

However, separate analyses suggest that the well has about
40 Mbbl in remaining reserve, or about 355 Mbbl in total
reserve. You can schedule reserve (or specify total reserve)
and ask OFM to adjust decline rate to reserve.
16. Select Edit > Scenario. Select the Forecast tab.
17. In the Schedule Reserves field enter 40.
18. In the Decline Parameters Rate field, select Calculate from
Reserves and Schedule Time.
19. Click OK. The forecast displays.

20. Edit the Scenario again. Clear the Schedule Reserves list
field.
21. In the Total Reserves field enter 355.
22. Click OK, and do not forget to read the legend to verify the
results. The graph displays.
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Study the production history of this well. The behavior from
mid-95 to mid-98, and the one from mid-99 on could well be
the trend for our forecast. However, there is a period of
anomaly (from mid-98 to mid-99) that needs to be addressed.
25. Set the lower limit to take into account the production period
from mid-95 to mid-98.
26. Select Edit > Scenario. Select the Forecast tab.
27. From the Start Time list, select Date, and then enter 19980630
in the adjoining field.
28. Set the Start Rate list to From Fit.
29. Select Possible from the Reserve Type list field.
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30. Select Months from Start from the End Time list, and enter 84
(including 2 years from mid-98 to the last historical date).

31. Click OK. The graph displays.
33. Click Next. The forecast for ORANGE_34:Ad_1A displays.
ORANGE_34:Ad_1A has short historical production data. The
limited data for this completion shows a sharp drop in
production, which may indicate this is a troubled well. The last
data point does not follow the generic trend, and it could be
incorrect if you decide to use the overall best fit (dictated by
the first five data points) or the partial fit through the last two
data points. It has been suggested that this well may be put on
production for a short period of time, be shut in to perform
corrective measures, and then put back on production
following the partially fitted trend (Decline Rate of about 0.05
M.e.). All these operations/parameters can be reflected in your
forecast estimation, using the multiple-schedule forecast
technique.
Adding Schedules
1. From the Properties pane, set the Fit Type to Hyperbolic.
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3. Select the Forecast tab. Notice that the well has about four
more months before reaching10 bbls/d, which is a fairly good
shut-in rate.
4. From the End Time drop-down list, select Date and enter
20001031 in the adjoining field. The End Rate and Reserve
Type are of insignificance in this example.

5. Click Add. Schedule #2 displays.
6. From the End Time drop-down list, verify Months from Start is
selected, and enter 6 (months) in the adjoining field.
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7. In the Oil Advanced Settings group box, check the Days Off
options and enter 31 (days) in the adjoining field.

8. Add Schedule #3.
9. From the Start Rate list, select Change By Percent and enter
300 (%) in the adjoining field.
10. From the End Time list, verify Months from Start is selected
and enter 50 (months) in the adjoining field.
11. Set the Reserve Type to Unproven. In the End Rate field enter
1 (bbl/d) as the desired limit.
12. In the Decline Parameters section of the dialog, from the
Type list field select Exponential.
13. In the Decline Parameters Rate field select User Defined and
enter 0.05 (M.e.) in the adjoining field.
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14. In Advanced Settings section, check Shut In Effect and enter
300 (%) in the adjoining field. Click OK.

Exercise 8 Using Shut-in activities
Experiment with other ways to simulate shut-in activities in this
well.
Exercise 9 Digitizing Points
In this exercise you will add digitized points to the graph.
1. Click Next. The forecast for ORANGE_34:Ad_3BU
displays.

This well has a very short and erratic production history.
Therefore, it is nearly impossible to determine a trend of any
kind. A different approach must be used to estimate the
forecast for this well. Studies show that this well has all the
same parameters as a nearby well, of which you know the
trend.
2. Select the graph and right-click. A shortcut menu displays.
Select Digitize Points, or from the Edit menu select Digitize
Points.
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Click the points where you believe the best-fit line should be
(For your reference, review the magenta points selected on
the graph - you may want to zoom in from the View menu).

3. Right-click and select Done. The best-fit line is redrawn. Reset
the zoom on the graph if needed. The graph redisplays.


This looks like a very reasonable forecast. The well has
excellent production trend but ask yourself why there are no
production data after August 1999. You may want to rule out
data points before the peak production (early time) to obtain a
better fit.
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6. Set a lower limit to rule out the first five data points. The best-fit
line should then be hyperbolic.

7. Select Edit > Scenario. The current scenario window for the
current case displays
9. Select Last Historical Date from Start Time drop-down list and
From Fit from Start Rate list.

10. Click OK.
11. The next three wells, the ORANGE_35:Ad_1A,
ORANGE_35:Ad_3BU, and ORANGE_36:Li_1C, all have
very brief and erratic production history.
Study those three wells and perform the forecasts for them.
Do not forget to save your forecasts when done.
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12. Select the last well from the filter list, RED_4:Cl_3 (you can do
it from the drop-down well list).

This well has good history, and there might have been a work
over near the end of 1986, which really revitalized its
production. Thus the trend should be determined from that
time on.
13. Set the lower limit and upper limit so the used points are as
shown below and save the forecast.

Question
The following question is for review and discussion:
Now that you have performed the forecasts on the selected wells,
how do you view the forecast results?
Lesson 6 Manual Match for
Empirical Solutions
OFM initially plots control points based on historical or digitized
data regression. Once a control point is moved, manual match
method is automatically activated and you have total control of
how the match should be performed. You have the ability to
interactively adjust the regression parameters by using the mouse
to change the shape and position of the fit curves.
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The manual match mode remains active until the match method is
changed to Auto in the Properties pane.

OFM Forecast performs historical regression automatically by
default when using empirical solutions.
Performing Historical Regression
1. Select Blue_5:Sc_0 from the Step pane.
2. To view Historical Regression results, click the Historical
Regression tab located at the base of the Forecast window.

On the Historical Regression results pane you can see that
the best fit for the historical data is hyperbolic decline with an
R-squared (R^2) value of 0.902190.
There are three data points (in blue color) on the historical fit
curve. These points are Control Points, which control the
shape and position of the fit curve during manual match
process. The control points are initially calculated using the
equation obtained from auto match. The number of control
points are determined by the decline type (or the relationship
between dependent and independent variables) and the
number of to-be-determined parameters. In the example
shown there are three control points, which are used to
determine initial flow rate (qi), b value and initial decline rate
(Di).

NOTE: There are constraints
in the manual matching
algorithm (i.e. constraints to
the movement of the control
points). For example, if the fit
type is set to exponential you
cannot move the control
points to make a hyperbolic
regression line.
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3. Select a control point and then drag it.
Take notice of the match method property on the property
pane is now set to Manual. During the manual match process
the parameters (qi, b, and Di) are calculated instantaneously
based on the control points and their position relative to the X-
and Y-axis as you drag and move them.

Review Questions
When setting up a forecast scenario, why do the variables
selected for association need to have the same units and
multipliers?
How can you improve a forecast result?
Discuss Hyperbolic and Exponential fit types for forecast
analysis.
What is the purpose of Control Points on a historical fit curve?

NOTE: You can also move
the fit curve by selecting it
and dragging it.
You can also move the
control point by positioning
the mouse over the control
point.
Both the fit curve and control
points can be manually
moved by selecting and
dragging.
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Summary
In this module you:
set up a forecast scenario
edited a graph
worked with different forecast features
changed the fit type
added a schedule
performed a Manual Match for Empirical Solutions.
In the next module, you will learn how to view a forecast in OFM.

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NOTES
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Module 2 Forecast
Even though you can generate forecasts from monthly, daily, or
even sporadic data, the forecast (rate) results in OFM are stored
in monthly frequency. By default, OFM activates four report tabs,
Historical Regression Report, Forecast Report, Summary
Report, and Database Forecast Report. You can close any of
these tabs from the View menu as desired or by selecting the
tabbed page and clicking the Close button.
Learning Objectives
In this section, you will be introduced to viewing the forecast. You
will successfully learn how to perform the following procedures
within this workflow:
use the output features
create and compare cases
use the auto decline feature.
Lesson 7 Output Features
In this lesson you will use various OFM output features. The next
steps assume that you are on the last well, RED_4:CI_3, and
have saved its forecast results to the database.

Forecast
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Exercise 10 Using Output Features
1. Select the Historical Regression tab and the following
displays.

This tabbed page enables you to read the information about
your (real) historical data and the fitted data, the fit equation,
and its correlation coefficient.
2. Drag the vertical scroll bar to view the portion of fitted rates.


This tabbed page enables you to read the forecast (decline)
equation, forecast rates and cumulative/reserves. Scroll down

NOTE: To anchor the
window, click the push-pin in
the upper right corner. The
vertical push-pin indicates
that the auto-hide feature is
turned off. Refer to the
image below.
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to see the rest of the report. If you have multiple scheduled
forecasts, each schedule has its own equation.
4. Select ORANGE_34:Ad_1A from the well name drop-down
list, select the Forecast tab (in the Output window). The
information pictured below displays.

5. Scroll down to see the rest of the report.
6. Select the Summary tab.
7. This tabbed page contains a summary of your forecast, per
schedule. Select RED_4:Cl_3 again from the well list (and
reselect the Summary tab).

8. Select the Database Forecast tab.
Remember that you may set up your forecast and keep
working on it without saving the result. OFM keeps a copy of
your working forecast, so you can compare and evaluate your
case. Once a forecast is saved to your database, two forecast
results display in this Database Forecast tab; one is of the
saved forecast, and the other one is of the work-in-progress
forecast.
9. Select the graph and right-click. A shortcut menu displays.
Select Limits > Reset.
Forecast
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10. Set a lower limit as shown.

This is our working forecast, which uses a hyperbolic
regression instead of an exponential regression in case1. The
working forecast results in higher forecast rates, especially
towards the end of the forecast period.
11. Click on the Database Forecast tab in the output window
(you may want to resize this window), scroll down and view
the result. The results shown are of the saved forecast
(case1).
Remember that the current forecast (working) is not saved yet;
so you cannot retrieve other information (equations,
correlation coefficient, etc.).
Lesson 8 Cases
In this lesson you will create and compare cases.
Exercise 11 Working with Cases
1. Select File > Save to Different Case. The Case dialog
displays.
2. Name the new case Case2. The rest of the fields are optional.

3. Click OK.

NOTE: Once you add a
new case to the database,
your working forecast is
defaulted to that new case
(but not saved until you do
so).
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4. Select the Database Forecast tab and scroll down. You can
see that the Database Forecast Rate and Volume now reflects
the information of Case2.
5. Select File > Cases. The Case window displays. You can see
that Case2 is checked (denoting the active case).

6. Click OK to close the window.
7. Now that you have more than one case saved to the
database, you can compare the results of those two cases.
Select Tools > Compare Cases. The Current Case, as
mentioned earlier, is the active case - Case2.
8. Select Case1 from the Compare Case drop-down list. Click
OK.
9. Select the Compare Cases pane (OFM automatically
activates this pane when you set up Compare Cases).
10. Scroll down to see the rest of the comparison report.
Lesson 9 Auto Decline
Another useful tool regarding basic forecasting is Auto Decline. If
you have a filter list that contains many wells and would like to set
up a baseline forecast case for all the wells in the list, you can do it
via Auto Decline. This feature is designed to give you a baseline,
and most of the time it will not yield the best forecast possible for
every well. You are strongly advised to check and modify (if
needed) every individual forecast afterwards.
Exercise 12 Using Auto Decline
1. Select Tools > Auto Decline.

TIP: To deactivate the
Compare Cases pane,
select Tools > Compare
Cases and select None from
the Compare list. When you
click the OK button, the
Compare pane disappears.
Forecast
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The Auto Decline window displays.

The table below lists the options that are available from this
dialog.
Cases Assigns the case name.
Default Scenario Restores the default values.
Scenario Manager Sets up the scenario.
Range Specifies the data range.

OFM also provides a Group By option that pre-groups data
before performing the forecast, a Save Results to Case
Option, a Plot to Printer option and a Pause after each
option.
2. Click OK.
Exercise 13 Using Auto Decline Feature
Experiment with this Auto Decline feature.
Exercise 14 Performing Forecast Analysis
Perform the forecast on gas phase for a well of your choice.
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Review Questions
Why should you keep a copy of your working forecast?
Why is it useful to compare cases?
What is the purpose of Auto Decline? What is the benefit of
this feature?
Summary
In this module you:
used the output features
created and compare cases
used the auto decline feature.
In the next module, you will learn about other forecasting
approaches used in OFM.

Forecast
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NOTES
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Module 3 Additional Forecasts
You previously used the Rate vs. Time Decline model to forecast
the rates and reserves. OFM also allows other common types of
forecasting approaches using other variables such as Water Cut,
Cumulative Production, and P/Z.
Learning Objectives
In this module you will spend some time working with two other
forecasting models: Water Cut vs. Cumulative Oil and P/Z vs.
Cumulative Gas. You will successfully learn how to perform the
following procedures within this workflow:
perform water-cut versus Cum.Oil analysis
use grid map tools.
Lesson 10 Water-Cut versus Cum.Oil
Analysis
In this lesson you will perform a Water Cut versus Cum.Oil
analysis.
Performing Water-Cut vs. Cum. Oil Analysis
1. Select ORANGE_32:Li_1C from the well list.
2. Select Edit > Scenario. The Current Scenario dialog
displays.
3. From the Variable Association section of the dialog, select
Water Cut for Phase/Analysis. Make sure you have Time set
to Date, Oil.Cum for Cum.Oil, and Water.Cut for Water Cut.

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4. Click OK. The graph displays.

Notice that since you did not specify the Limiting Water Cut,
OFM uses 95% water cut for the cutoff point. The actual
starting water cut is already higher than 95%, resulting in no
forecasting at all. Therefore, you need to specify the limiting
water cut. This is done using the Properties pane.
5. From the Properties pane locate the Forecast / Start WCUT
option and select Last Historical.
6. Locate the Forecast / End WCUT option and select Value. In
the new line that appears below, type in a value of 99. The
graph updates immediately.

7. Take a look at the Reserves and EUR. Since the starting
water cut is already high, there is not much that you can do.
Return to the Properties pane.
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8. Locate the Forecast / Start WCUT option, select Value and
enter 98 (%) in the new field below. The graph redisplays.

9. Exclude the early data from influencing the forecast by setting
up a lower limit on this curve as shown.

The graph refreshes.

Now that you know the value of EUR (~331 Mbbl) and
Remaining Reserve (~14 Mbbl), you can return to the
Scenario Editor and schedule your reserves accordingly.
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Exercise 15 Scheduling Your Reserves
1. Switch the phase back to Oil.
2. Schedule your reserves (Remaining or Total).
Lesson 11 P/Z vs. Cum.Gas Analysis
In most oil or gas fields, pressure data are not readily available.
For each individual well, you may find a scattered set of pressure
information, yet usually not enough to conduct an effective
analysis. Fortunately, many wells may belong to the same entity
(i.e., reservoir) and have comparable properties. With other
parameters being similar (relatively), you can assume that the
pressure data for these wells is also similar. OFM provides the
functionality of plotting discrete individual pressure points versus
grouped (combined) cumulative gas.
As the name suggests, you need pressure and gas production
data, as well as PVT information. In this lesson, you will create a
P/Z vs. Cum.Gas forecast to determine gas recoverables.
Creating a P/Z vs. Cu. Gas Forecast
1. Check the PVT information first. Select Database > PVT. The
PVT Entity Name dialog displays.

2. You should have at least one PVT profile (named Default) in
your PVT Entity Name list. Select an entity name and click
Edit. The Edit PVT Information dialog displays.
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3. Select the PVT Data tab.

4. Click OK.
5. Close the PVT Entity Name window.
6. The next thing to do is to load some pressure data into this
project. In this Demo2007 project, there is a field in
Monthlyprod table named Pressure. That is the field into which
you want to load pressure data. You will interactively add in
pressure data from the Data Editor.
7. From the Filter pane, click the Filter by Completion icon.
The Filter by Completion dialog displays.
8. Select GREEN_6:Li_1C, ORANGE_19:Ad_1A, and
RED_4:Cl_3 from the list. Click OK.
9. Click Next. Well GREEN_6:Li_1C displays.
10. Select Database > Data. The Select OFM Table to Edit
dialog displays.

NOTE: If the pressure data
already exist in a suitably
formatted file, you can use
the Data Loader to load the
data. In this case, revisit the
appropriate section of the
Introductory Manual for the
correct procedure.
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11. Select the Monthlyprod table from the table list.

12. Click OK.
13. In the Pressure column, enter the following:
2900 at 1/1/1981
2700 at 2/1/1982
2500 at 5/1/1983
2300 at 1/1/1985
2200 at 12/1/1985
2000 at 7/1/1989
1900 at 1/1/1992
14. Click away from the last cell.
15. Click Next to move to ORANGE_19:Ad_1A and enter the
following:
3500 at 1/1/1973
2800 at 8/1/1981
2650 at 3/1/1982
2400 at 11/1/1984
2100 at 3/1/1987
1850 at 11/1/1992
16. Click away from the last cell.
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17. Click Next to move to RED_4:Cl_3 and enter the following:
3000 at 4/1/1980
2500 at 1/1/1983
2000 at 3/1/1988
1900 at 7/1/1990
1800 at 11/1/1992
1700 at 4/1/1994
18. Click away and then close the editing window.
19. Select Group Data and then select Analysis > Forecast to
open a forecast window (if you do not already have one open).
21. Make the selections shown in the image below.

22. Click OK for the graph to be displayed.
Take a look at the graph; you can see all the individual wells
pressure points plotted together against the combined
cumulative gas production. Since you did not specify the initial,
current, and abandonment P/Z, OFM uses its default
(calculated) values there.

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You can now specify values for each of these parameters
through the Properties pane.
23. On the pane, first locate the History Match / Initial P/Z Option
line, and select Value. Enter a value of 4000 psi.
24. Now locate the Forecast / Start P/Z Option line, and type in a
Value of 1800 psi.
Note that either of these values may be left as a best fit by
selecting the From Fit option.
25. Finally, locate the End P/Z Option line, and type in a Value of
800 psi.

As with forecasting of the other phases or ratios, the automatic
historical regression fit can be manually adjusted by clicking on the
end (dark blue) points of the dark green line and manually
dragging to a new location or by grabbing the fit line and dragging/
shifting it to its new location. The calculated properties of the fit
and the accompanying forecast are updated continuously on
screen.
As soon as you use either of these options, the History Matching
method in the Properties pane changes from Auto to Manual. It
remains set to Manual until you reselect Auto from the Properties
pane.
Exercise 16 Performing Gas Forecasting
1. Return to the Forecast Scenario, switch the phase to gas,
and perform gas forecasting using the reserves obtained in
this lesson.
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2. Click Next to move to GREEN_6:Li_1C. The forecast graph
displays.

Exercise 17 Performing Additional Analyses
1. Perform P/Z vs. Cum.Gas, then Gas Rate vs. Time analyses
on the other two wells.
2. Save the results.
Review Questions
What information can you get from a Water-Cut vs. Cum. Oil
Analysis forecast?
What is the purpose of a P/Z vs. Cum.Gas forecast?
Summary
In this module you:
performed a Water cut versus Cum.Oil analysis
used grid map tools.
In the next module, you will learn about Fetkovich Type Curve
Analysis.
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NOTES
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Fetkovich Type Curve Analysis


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Module 4 Fetkovich Type Curve
Analysis
In the last module you used the empirical solution method to
forecast production. That method is based on a set of decline
equations, which also are fundamental for a more advanced
technique, Fetkovich Type Curve.
Fetkovich Type Curve Analysis uses a set of type curves
representing the typical performance of ideal (conventional) finite
radial (flow) reservoirs. Production data for the entity are plotted
against time on a dimensionless log-log scale. The plotted (real)
curve is then matched with one of the provided Fetkovich curves,
and the real entity can be referenced to the ideal curve.
The ideal Fetkovich log-log type curve analysis assumes that the
well rates decline after a period of pseudo-steady state, denoted
by a rather flat (constant) rate when it is plotted against time on a
log-log scale.

Technically, Fetkovich Type Curve Analysis (TCA) is designed for
late-time history matching and should not be applied to early-time
analysis. Users are required to reinitialize data (to the first point,
or close, where the rates start declining).
Learning Objectives
In this module, you will learn the basics of Fetkovich TCA
functionalities in OFM 2007. More advanced analytical skills
regarding this method will be addressed in the higher levels of
OFM training. You will successfully learn how to perform the
use Fetkovich TCA
perform Type Curve Match.

TIP: For more information
refer to the DCA equations
topic in the online help.
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Lesson 12 Fetkovich Type Curve
Analysis (Late-Time)
In this lesson you will perform a Fetkovich Type Curve analysis
and Type Curve Match.
Using Fetkovich Type Curve Analysis
1. Clear any previously applied filter. Expand the Well List node
in the Filter pane and select Prod_Wells98.txt.
3. Select BLUE_5:Sc_0 and open a Forecast window.
4. Add a new case named Case3 to the project.
5. Select Edit > Scenario, and the Current Scenario dialog
displays.
6. Associate the following on the Flow Model tabbed page.

NOTE: When you select
Fetkovich Type Curve from
the Solution list, the other
parameters in the Model
Description section of the
dialog are grayed out.
If you have dynamic (data
loaded into a table, e.g.,
monthly) pressure data and
want to use them, associate
the variable at the Flowing
Pressure list; otherwise you
can enter (static) pressure
values in the Pressure group
box.
Fetkovich analysis uses PVT
data in its algorithms. The
default PVT properties for
this project contain a value
for rock compressibility of
zero. This must be changed
(using Database >
PVT/Edit) to a more
appropriate value; otherwise
type curve matches fail. We
suggest a value of 0.000003
psi-1.
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7. Select the Parameters tab and accept the default parameters
to start history matching.

8. Click OK. The graph displays. (You will have to add the
header, resize the graph, legend to get the desired output.)

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9. Reinitialize your data by right-clicking on the graph. A shortcut
menu displays. Select Reinitialize.

10. Position your cursor at your desired data point and click to
highlight the point. Only the Time (x coordinate) value is
important here.
11. Right-click and select Reinitialize from the shortcut menu.

12. Click OK. Your data has been reinitialized.

NOTE: OFM may display a
dialog with a Reinitialize
Data Tip, as shown here.

TIP: You can also adjust the
data fitted curve (Dark
Green) by positioning the
cursor over that curve. When
a hand appears, click the
curve and drag it to your
desired location; then
release the mouse.
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13. Position your cursor over the real curve until the cursor
changes to a four-headed arrow, drag it and move it
(remember the initial point of the decline period) closer to the
displayed type curves.
14. Select Tools > Typecurve Match. OFM runs the matching
algorithm and returns the following:

16. Select the Parameters tab. Observe that after running the
matching algorithm, OFM returns the calculated results for the
b value and Permeability, Skin factor, Drainage area (if you
are performing both early- and late-time analysis).
17. Select the Flow Model tab and clear the Late-Time Only
checkbox (just an exercise).
18. Close the dialog and rerun the matching algorithm. The
program returns a set of parameters.
19. Clear b value and Permeability text boxes, check Skin factor
and enter 45 in the Estimates field, check Drainage Area and
enter 300 in the Estimates field.
20. Click OK.

NOTE: You may get a
failure message as the result
of this operation. In this case,
go back to the Scenario >
Parameters tab, adjust the
values of your matching
parameters, and rerun the
Typecurve Match
command. If you have any
questions, feel free to seek
help from your instructor.
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21. Select Tools > Typecurve Match. The new result returns.

23. Select the Parameters tab.
Based on the returned skin factor, you would have a good
idea of what the next estimate Skin factor should be.
Remember that you can vary all four parameters in your
matching criteria.
24. Enter the values provided in the table below.
Permeability 30 (md)
Skin Factor 60
Drainage area 700 (acre)
b value 0.3

25. Click OK. If required, re-initialize your data.
26. Select Tools > Typecurve Matching. The graph displays and
the results reported in the Legend box are different.

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27. Edit the Scenario. Select the Parameters tab and examine
the return values of the matching parameters.
Keep repeating the operation by supplying better estimates,
running history match, until you get a good match. Do not
forget, these parameters are really important. By changing the
values of Wellbore Radius, Net Pay, and Porosity, the
magnitude of your matching parameters is strongly affected.
For example, you can run the matching algorithm with this set
of parameters:

28. Sometimes you will get a matching failure message. One of
the reasons could be that it does not converge after a certain
number of iterations. Click on Matching Calculation Settings
and this window appears:

TIP: You can select to match
on production rate,
incremental production, or
cumulative production. You
can also specify the number
of iterations and the
tolerance.
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29. After running the matching algorithm, OFM returns the
calculated match parameters (which normally are different
than the estimates you entered). Click Update to use the
Results as Estimates for the next run, or click Revert for the
opposite.
Remember, the settings on your Forecast tab are of your
default setting (Current Scenario).
30. Select Tools > Forecast. OFM runs the forecast and displays
the forecast results.
31. Select Edit >Scenario.
32. Check the Late-Time Only box. This action disables the
pressure information. Click OK.
33. Move the real curve closer to the type curves, and then select
Tools > Typecurve Match. The result displays.

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34. Select Edit > Scenario and select the Parameters tab. You
can see in Late Time analysis, the only matching parameter
used is the b value.

After running Fetkovich Type Curve analysis (with and without
the Late Time Only option), your matching parameters can be
used back in Empirical Solution method to get a better decline
estimation.
Question
Examine the results in Step 30. What conclusion can you make?
Review Questions
When is it most appropriate to use Fetkovich Type Curve
analysis?
In a type curve match, which reservoir parameter settings
significantly affect your matching parameters?
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Summary
In this module you:
used Fetkovich TCA
performed Type Curve Match.
In the next module, you will learn how to forecast using Analytical
Transient Analysis.
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NOTES
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NOTES
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Analytical Transient Solutions


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Module 5 Analytical Transient
Solutions
Fetkovich Type Curve method uses a particular set of reservoir
parameters. The applicability of Fetkovich TCA is somewhat
limited. OFM allows you to specify different types of
reservoirs/formations, based on the phase and the technique that
you select to pursue. The Analytical Transient Solution handles a
variety of different parameter combinations. Fetkovich TCA can
then be considered a special case of the Analytical Transient
Solution.
The use of Analytical Transient Solution is very similar to
Fetkovich TCA, except that additional information is required
describing your reservoir. If you inaccurately specify these
reservoir parameters and/or matching criteria, you may get
questionable results.
Learning Objectives
In this section, you will learn to set up a basic forecast case using
Analytical Transient Analysis. (Advanced training on this topic is
addressed in other OFM courses.) You will then pull everything
that you have learned together to combine all three solutions to
perform the forecast on a well that does not have good production
data (The workflow could equally be applied to a well that has no
data). You will successfully learn how to perform the following
procedures within this workflow:
set up base forecast case
combine all three solutions.
Lesson 13 Analytical Transient
Solution
In this lesson you will set up a base forecast case.
Setting Up a Base Forecast Case Using
Analytical Transient Solution
1. Make sure that you have a forecast window opened. Select
BLUE_5:Sc_0 from the well list.
2. From the Properties pane verify that you are forecasting on
Oil phase.
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3. Select Analytical Transient Solution from the Solution list.

displays.
5. Select the Parameters tab.

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6. To be consistent with what you did in the Fetkovich TCA
lesson, enter the following values:
Wellbore Radius - 0.2 (ft)
Net Pay - 20 (ft)
Porosity - 0.3 (fraction)

7. Click OK.
8. If your curve has not been reinitialized (from the previous
exercise), do it now.
9. Select Tools > Typecurve Match.

Exercise 18 Comparing the Results
Compare this result with the one you obtained using Fetkovich
TCA previously. What kind of conclusion can you make? Note
the model description.
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1. Select Edit > Scenario and select the Parameters tab.
2. Examine the returned (matching) parameters:

3. Select the Flow Model tab. Enter the values shown.

NOTE: Depending on your
associated choice in the
Model Description, your next
choice (in that description)
and your match parameters
list change.
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4. Select the Parameters tab. Specify a Choked Fracture Skin
of 0.45 and a Fracture Conductivity of 500. Uncheck the
other parameters.
5. Click OK to display the graph. Re-initialize your data.
6. Move the real curve closer to the type curves (and the fitted
data curve) and select Tools > Typecurve Match.

7. Examine the results on the graph and legend box. Notice that
with your model description, you see more type curve
parameters such as Cr, Skinf, etc. Examine the results from
the Output Window and experiment with the match
parameters by different combinations and estimate values.
8. If needed, change the matching criteria (i.e. match on
cumulative rate instead of production rate, increase number of
iterations/tolerance). Always keep in mind that anything that
you change may affect the validity of your results.
Question
Compare these values (Step 2) with ones obtained from previous
Fetkovich TCA. With the formation parameters the same, model
description the same, what would possibly be the contributing
reason(s) for the differences (if any)?
Exercise 19 Performing an Analytical
Transient Analysis
Pick a well of your choice and perform Analytical Transient
Analysis on it. Save the result when you are satisfied with it.
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Lesson 14 Combine All Three
Solutions
This lesson demonstrates the capability of combining all three
types of solutions you have learned to forecast oil production on a
well that has a brief production history.

Combining Three Types of Solutions
1. Select BLUE_1:Ge_6 from the well list.
The (Empirical) forecast may display. Notice that with only a
few data points, a visual trend may be unreliable. Assuming
that you know the reservoir model and have formation
parameters available, you could start the forecast from a
different approach.
2. From the Properties pane select Empirical solution.
3. Change the Fit Type to Hyperbolic method.
4. Locate the b Value properties. Set the Method to User and
enter User value of 0.6.

NOTE: During this lesson,
you will probably encounter
Type Curve match failure
messages. It is due to either
incorrect parameter
specifications or the
algorithm not converging.
Remember that you can
specify your own Matching
Settings. If needed, change
the matching criteria (i.e.
match on cumulative rate
instead of production rate,
increase number of
iterations/tolerance). Always
keep in mind that anything
that you change may affect
the validity of your results.
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displays.
6. Select the Forecast tab and specify the following:

7. Click OK and the graph shows. You need to set limits to
obtain a meaningful decline. Review the sections on Setting
Limits and Digitizing Points as a guide.

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10. Select the Forecast tab and add Schedule #2.
11. For this schedule, use Analytical Transient Solution method
and specify the following on the Forecast tab.

12. Enter these values on the Parameters tab:

13. Click OK.
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16. Select the Forecast tab in the output window and find the
section for Schedule #2.
17. Select Edit >Scenario.
18. Change Schedule #2 to Empirical.
19. Click OK. The graph displays (both working and saved
forecasts).

21. Add Schedule #3.
22. On this schedule, use Fetkovich Type Curve.
23. Specify the following on the Forecast tab:
Start Time Months from End =0
Start Rate Previous
End Time Months from Start =36 months
Decline Type Exponential

NOTE: Pay attention to the
saved forecast (in Cyan),
you can distinguish the two
portions of the curve, with
different hyperbolic b values.
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Decline Rate User Defined =0.03
24. Click OK.
27. Click on the Forecast tab output window to view the result.
28. Switch back to Empirical to see the saved forecast.
Exercise 20 Performing a Forecast
Pick a well that does not have good production history (or one that
does not have production at all) and do the forecast.
1. Close the Forecast window.
2. Clear the filter and return to the Basemap.
Review Questions
Why would you use Analytical Transient Solution instead of
Fetkovich Type Curve Analysis?
Why is it necessary to set limits when you run a forecast
analysis?
Summary
In this module you:
combined all three solutions.
In the next module, you will learn how to retrieve results from your
forecast analysis in OFM.
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NOTES
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NOTES
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Retrieving Forecast Results


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Module 6 Retrieving Forecast
Results
Forecast information (reserves, rates, etc.) can be retrieved via
calculated variables and displayed/used in other modules such as
report, plot. In this module, you will create variables to return rates
on group and individual wells. You will then create variables to
return remaining reserves and estimated ultimate recoverables.
Use the forecast results saved in Case1.
Prerequisites
Knowledge of calculated variables, plotting, and reporting is a
prerequisite in this lesson. If you have any problems, refer to the
Online Help (or any training material that applies).
Learning Objectives
In this section, you will successfully learn how to perform the
create variables to return remaining reserves
estimate ultimate recoverables
use forecast result.
Lesson 15 Calculated Variables
In this lesson you will create calculated variables to return
remaining reserves.
Creating Calculated Variables
1. Create a calculated variable named FCST.OilonGroup to
retrieve forecast oil rates on a group of wells. The definition of
this variable is FCST. Oi l onGr oup = @For ecast ( dat e,
"oi l ", "Case1", "gr oup" ) .
2. Assign units to the variable accordingly.
3. Create a calculated variable named FCST.GroupofOil. This
variable adds individual forecasts (oil rates) together for a
group of wells. The definition of this variable is
FCST. Gr oupof Oi l = @For ecast ( dat e, oi l ,
Case1, sum ) .
4. Assign units to the variable accordingly.
5. Create a calculated variable named FCST.RemRes. This
variable retrieves (oil) Remaining Reserves for the selected
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entity (group/well) based on the specified case. The definition
is FCST. RemRes = @DcaResul t s( "oi l RES",
"Case1", 1 ) .
6. Assign units and a multiplier to the variable.
7. Create a calculated variable named FCST.EUR. This variable
retrieves (oil) Ultimate Recoverables for the selected entity
based on the specified case. The definition is FCST. EUR =
@DcaResul t s( "oi l EUR", "Case1", 1 ) .
8. Assign units and a multiplier to the variable.
9. Use these variables on the report first.
10. From the Forecasts pane, expand the Case1 node and locate
the name of the Group forecast you created earlier in the
Setting Up A Forecast Scenario section. Right-click on the
group name and select Load. OFM loads the saved group
forecast.
11. Select Analysis > Report to open a report window.
12. Select Edit > Report Parameters. The Edit Report dialog
displays.
13. In the Select section of the Edit Report dialog enter Date,
Monthlyprod.Oil, FCST.OilonGroup.

14. Click OK. The report displays.
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15. Select Edit > Report Parameters. The Edit Report window
displays. Add the FCST.GroupofOil variable to the report.

16. Click OK.
17. Use the Next and Previous buttons to navigate through all the
wells. As you can see, for individual wells the group and the
sum options are the same. Thus for individual wells, you can
even omit this last argument in the variable definition, i.e.,
@For ecast ( Dat e, Oi l , Case1 ) .
18. Add the other two variables (FCST.RemRes and FCST.EUR)
to the report.
19. Group the data to recover the group forecast results.
Constant values of Reserves and Recoverables are reported.
These values are the results of your forecast on the group, not
the sums of individual reserves and recoverables.
Exercise 21 Verifying Report Results
Open a Forecast window and verify the results (by comparing the
retrieved values on the report and the saved values on the
forecast).
1. Create a variable named FCST.OilRate. The definition is
FCST. Oi l Rat e = @For ecast ( Dat e, "Oi l ",
"Case1") .
2. Associate the unit properly to the above variable.
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3. Add FCST.OilRate to the report as shown below.

4. Click OK.
5. Scroll down to see the results.
Notice that if you omit the last argument, the @For ecast ( )
function takes the group option. (In other words, group is the
default option). If the variable has been created this way
(without the last argument), and you want to retrieve the
summed values, you can specify an OFM option from the
Tools > Settings menu.
6. Select Tools > Settings > Group. The Settings dialog
displays.
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7. Check the option to Sum individual well forecasts when
grouping wells.

8. Click OK. Regroup the wells and the report displays.
9. Verify the result. Reverse the operation (by clearing that group
option).
Exercise 22 Creating Variables to Retrieve
Data
1. Select a few wells and perform a forecast on gas phase.
2. Save them to another case.
3. Create variables to retrieve forecast gas rates, reserves, and
recoverables.
4. Select Analysis > Plot. The Edit Plot dialog displays.
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5. Add the following variables: Plot Oil.CalDay,
FCST.OilonGroup, and FCST.GroupofOil versus Date. Your
plot should look similar to the one pictured below.

6. Navigate through all the wells in the list and see their plots. On
individual wells, the two forecast variables are the same. You
should expect to see the forecast portion consistent (in trend)
to the historical portion. An example is shown below.

Exercise 23 Creating Bubble and Grid Maps
Create bubble map and grid map of oil RES and EUR.

NOTE: The @For ecast ( )
system function can only
retrieve rates.
The @DcaResul t s( )
system function retrieves
constants (i.e., forecast
parameters).
If you perform forecasts
using ratios or cuts and want
to retrieve those variables,
use the @DcaCal c( )
system function.
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Review Questions
What is the purpose of each of the following calculated
variables?
o FCST.OilonGroup
o FCST.GroupofOil
o FCST.RemRes
o FCST.EUR
Are the reported constant values of Reserves and
Recoverables the result of your forecast on the group, or the
sums of individual reserves and recoverables?
Summary
In this module you:
combined all three solutions.
You have completed the OilField Manager Forecast Analysis
training. Use what you have learned to successfully work within
OFM 2007.

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NOTES

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