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Suyeon Jung
Professor Douglas Lemke
PL SC 014U/ Section 001
3 April 2015
Why South Korea and North Korea Did Not Agree to Sign Peace Treaty to End the Korean
War?
After a collapse of Japanese Empire at the end of the Second World War, Korea
became a divided country under two world-leading powers, the United States (noncommunist; democracy) and the Soviet Union (communism) (Millett, Korean War). The
Soviet Union ruled North Korea, which is above the 38th parallel, and the U.S took
responsibility of South Korea, below the 38th parallel. North Korea became communist under
the Soviets influence, and South Korea became democracy under the United States
influence. The United Nations tried to reunify Korea by calling for elections in 1947. The
Soviet Union, however, refused to comply and installed a communist regime in North Korea
and let Il Sung Kim to dictate the country. While North Korea became communist, South
Korea became democracy under the president Syngman Rhee (Millett, Korean War). Since
Korea was divided into two different countries based on different regime types, both dictator
Il sung Kim and President Syngman Rhee had a great desire of reunification of Korea under
their rule.
On June 25, 1950, Korean War began as North Korean army crossing the 38th parallel
as they received advice and a promise of support from Joseph Stalin, the dictator of the
Soviet Union (Millett, Korean War). North Koreas secret invasion was an incentive to
North Korean because while North Korean army was well-prepared and well-equipped, South
Korean army was not. Even so, North Koreas invasion of South Korea was a shock to the
United States, because the United States saw this invasion as an extension of the Cold war, a

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war between democracy and communism. President Truman said If we let Korea down, the
Soviets will keep right on going and swallow up one place after another (History.com,
Korean War).
Korean War started as a civil war, but it soon became international war including
world-leading powers. On the first day of the war, under the United States leadership the
United Nations Security Council believed that North Korea should stop fighting and
withdraw to the boarder along the 38th parallel as their priority as the alliances is preventing
war. North Korea ignored the United Nations warning, so the United Nations Security
Council passed a second resolution asking its member states to assist South Korea in
repelling the attack (Greenspan, 8 Things You Should Know About the Korean War). Then,
President Truman ordered General Douglas MacArthur, the commander in charge of the
Asian theater, a new set of war strategy: a war to liberate the North from the communists
(History.com, Korean War). A new strategy, a war to liberate the North from the
communists was successful. An amphibious assault at Inchon pushed the North Koreans out
of Seoul and even back to above the 38th parallel (History.com, Korean War). However, as
American troops pushed North Koreans toward the Yalu River, the border between North
Korea and China, China started to worry about defensing themselves.
Therefore, Chinese leader Mao Zedong saw this as armed aggression against Chinese
territory and sent troops to aid North Korea and defense China themselves by warning the
United States to stay away from the Yalu River, the boundary between North Korea and
China (History.com, Korean War/History.state.gov, The Korean War, 1950-1953).
President Truman and his advisers decided that they do not want China to be involved with
the Korean War because it would result in more casualties and make the Korean War to be
bloodier (History.state.gov, The Korean War, 1950-1953).

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In July 1951, President Truman and his military commanders started to have peace
talks at Panmunjom to end the Korean War. The fighting still continued along the 38th parallel
as negotiations took place. It was hard to sign armistice because both sides agreed to accept a
ceasefire that maintained the 38th parallel, but they could not agree on repatriation of
prisoners of war--the Chinese and the North Koreans agreed; the United States disagreed
(History.com, Korean War).
On July 27, 1953, after more than two years of negotiations, The United States,
China, North Korean and South Korea signed an armistice (History.state.gov, The Korean
War, 1950-1953). All of those countries involved in the Korean War agreed upon no
expansion on Korean War because they were aware such actions might trigger World War III.
Based on an armistice, there was a new border between North and South Korea was drawn,
which included Demilitarized the zone between the two nations (History.com, Korean
War). The peace keeping of the Korean War was peace enforcement, where the United
Nations played a significant role. The United Nations designed a military intervention to
impose public order by force with or without consent of hosts because the United Nations
believed that one of two sides must stop.
Korean war was extremely massive and bloody. During Korean War, there were
approximately five millions of people died. More than half of these casualties were civilians,
and it was about ten percent of Koreas pre-war population. This civilian to casualty ratio was
higher than both the Second World Wars and Vietnams. Korean War also took 40,000
American soldiers life away, and more than 100,000 soldiers were wounded (History.com,
Korean War).
As war is coercive bargaining war happens when there is a conflict over things
between two or more states values such as territory, policies, and regime type. Korean war
happened because of a conflict over territory and regime type. North Korean dictator Il Sung

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Kim wanted one united country, so he secretly planned invasion of South Korea. Even so,
North Korea enjoyed enthusiastic support of the Soviets and neither Soviet and North Korea
agreed to stay above 38th parallel. North Koreas invasion of South Korea was a private
information to South Korea, so when North Korea invaded South Korea, South Korean army
was not prepared, equipped and disciplined. Therefore, in the beginning of the Korean War,
South Korea struggled to defense them.
The Korean War can be observed as three different conflicts from three different
perspectives (Millett, Korean War). For North Korea and South Korea, the conflict of the
Korean War was a civil war, a conflict based on territory, regime, and policies. This conflict
between North Korea and South Korea did not have any hint of compromise for its future
(Millett, Korean War). North Korea was a coalition of three dictators Joseph Stalin, Mao
Zedong, and Il Sung Kim (Millett, Korean War). South Korea was affected by Westernstyle constitution and Christian-capitalist orientation and the support of the United States and
the United Nations (Millett, Korean War). From the broader perspective, as the continent of
Asia, the Korean War was a regional conflict over the Western power versus China and the
Soviet Union, Communist versus Nationalist (Millett, Korean War). The Korean War was
also competition between world-leading powers for the security reasons.
Theoretically, the Korean War can be analyzed through bargaining model. Bargaining
model highlights initiation, prosecution, termination, and consequences as a part of single
bargaining process (Reiter, Exploring the Bargaining Model of War, Perspectives on
Politics). Main actors in the Korean War are North Korea, South Korea, China, and the
United States. According to bargaining model North Korea is state A, South Korea is state B,
the United States is state C, and China is state D. In the beginning of the Korean War, the
status quo of the war was close to South Korea (State B) --North Koreas (State As) ideal
point-- because North Korea had stronger and well-prepared army (Reiter, Exploring the

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Bargaining Model of War, Perspectives on Politics). However, when the United States joined
Korean War to aid South Korea, the status quo shifted toward State A --State Bs and the
United States (State Cs) ideal point-- because allied with the United States was very helpful
not only to defend but also fight back. When the United States pushed North Korean army
above the 38th parallel even by the Yalu River, the boarder between North Korea and China,
China warned the United States to stay away from the boarder unless they want China to be
involved. The United Stated decided to stay away from the Yalu River, the boarder between
North Korean and China because the United States predict the outcome based on bargaining
model. Based on bargaining model, if China support North Korea then the status quo will
shift toward South Korea --State As and Chinas (State Ds) ideal point.
As consider about bargaining model, war costs, expected outcomes, and bargaining
range should be concerned (Reiter, Exploring the Bargaining Model of War, Perspectives on
Politics). After being a separated country, both North Korea and South Korea wanted the
reunification of Korea for a larger territory, but North Korea invaded South Korea because
they desired more to control a larger territory than South Korea. So, in the beginning of the
Korean War, both states started with an ideal point, which was reunification of Korea under
their control, and war costs for both sides was casualties. North Koreas expected outcome
was they would reunify this peninsula because while North Korea had strong army, South
Korea did not and have not prepared for the Korean War enough. Therefore, North Korea was
close to unifying the country until the United States and United Nations declared war against
North Korea and support South Korea. South Koreas expected outcome was that they will
lose the war because South Korean army was neither well-equipped and nor well-disciplined.
However, actors expected outcomes has been changed as alliances entered into the war. The
United States expected outcome of the Korean War was preventing South Korea from
becoming communist and victory of the war. As Chinese decided to aid North Korea, the U.S

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expected the war costs will be greater (However, Chinese did not support Chinese until the
U.S pushed Chinese army up by the Yalu river- the boarder between China and North Korea).
Last, bargaining range for both South Korean and North Korea was having larger territory
rather than remaining at the 38th parallel. Therefore, war was not preventable, because it is
really hard to meet status quo where neither of them want to challenge because their status
quo was having a larger territory than what they initially had (Reiter, Exploring the
Bargaining Model of War, Perspectives on Politics).
As consider bargaining model, there are some uncertainties that must be considered to
analyze the Korean War more specifically and more accurately (Reiter, Exploring the
Bargaining Model of War, Perspectives on Politics). First, North Koreas invasion of South
Korea was private information to South Korea because it was a secret invasion. Therefore,
this invasion resulted much more favorable outcome for North Korea because South Korea
did not expect this invasion. The other uncertainty is alliances. The Korean War started as a
civil war, but it became international, as the United States worried about this war could be an
extension of the Cold war. During the Korean War, every one expected both the Soviets and
Chinese will support North Korea because they are only few countries who are communists,
but Soviets did not help North Korea, and Chinese did not support North Korea until they
were scared that the Korean War could influence their territory as well when General
MacArthur pushed Chinese up to the Yalu river, the boarder between China and North Korea.
From 1945 to 1949, the Chinese civil war took place in China. In 1945, the Nationalist
Chiang Kai-shek and the Communist leader Mao Zedong met for a conversation based on the
formation of a post-war government in China. They both agreed on each others opinion such
as an importance of democracy and unified military, but the civil war outbroke due to the
mistrust on each other. Chinese Civil war ended with the victory of communist leader Mao
Zedong, the Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek moved to Taiwan with his military. Thus,

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Chinese could not help North Korea in the beginning of the Korean War because they still
struggled with aftermath of the Chinese civil war, and also the Nationalist Chinese leader
Chiang Kai-shek established an anticommunist government in Taiwan after defeated by the
dictator Mao Zedong in China. However, when General MacArthur aggressively pushed
North Korean army toward the boarder between North Korea and China, the Yalu River,
Chinese were threatened. Therefore, this threat to China was moved from Chinese status quo
that Chinese do not want to challenge, so Chinese eventually support North Korea to fight
against South Korea and the United States. As alliances joined Korean War by supporting
either side, the status quo shifted. Therefore, Both North Korea and South Korea, and their
alliances had peace talks try to end the Korea War, and when they met at the Panmunjom to
peace talk, it was hard to find an agreement upon the United States, China, North Korea, and
South Korea because there rationalities were different. Therefore, war-avoiding bargain could
not be reached.
After three years of a frustrating and violent war, the United States, China, North
Korea, and South Korea agreed to sign an armistice, stopping a war for the certain time
periods. In July 1953, all of the countries involved in the Korea War were ready to sign an
agreement to stop this war. The ceasefire was signed on July 27, and within that ceasefire a
new boarder between South Korea and North Korea was drawn. However, they all agreed
that they did not want to extend the Korean War to be World War III and did not want more
casualties, but they could not find the final peaceful settlement. Thus, it was only a ceasefire,
a temporary solution rather than a peace treaty because there were some disagreements
among participants. They all failed to find a peaceful final settlement for all the actors
involved in the conflict. Since they all failed to find a status quo, where none of those actors
want to challenge, so the Korean War was never ended.

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The Korean War is still ongoing international problem. There are tensions between
South Korea and North Korea, and North Korea has been threatening South Korea over and
over. However, the war is not going to take place easily based on bargaining theory because
North Korea does not want to challenge their ideal point because war cost is so huge. Both
North Korea and South Korea are aware of war costs, and they do not have strong interest,
which supposed to be more important than war costs to begin a war. Since both South Korea
and North Korea are rational actors, and their prior interest is not fighting each other, war is
not going to happen in the near future. Recently, North Korea has announced seven-day
nuclear war plan, which dictator Jong Un Kim stated that To capture the neighboring state,
the North Korean Army will need only seven days, which is the time period that would be
enough not to give the United States an opportunity to get involved in the conflict (Jeong,
Kim Jong-un Ordered a Plan for a 7-Day Asymmetric War: Officials). This seven-day
nuclear war plan might work as an incentive to North Korea, but North Korea is not
performing this proposal because it might affect international relationships negatively.
Therefore, it is clear to see bargaining theory plays a significant role within a war to expect
further actions by the actors.

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"Korean War." History.com. A&E Television Networks, 1 Jan. 2009. Web. 10 Mar. 2015.
<http://www.history.com/topics/korean-war>.
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10 Mar. 2015. <http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/armistice-ends-the-korean-war>.
"National Campaign to End the Korean War." National Campaign to End the Korean War.
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<http://www.endthekoreanwar.org/index.php?
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Greenspan, Jesse. "8 Things You Should Know About the Korean War."History.com. A&E
Television Networks, 26 July 2013. Web. 10 Mar. 2015. <http://www.history.com/news/8things-you-should-know-about-the-korean-war>.
Dan Reiter (2003). Exploring the Bargaining Model of War, Perspectives on Politics, 1, pg
27-43
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Jeong, Yong-Soo, and Myo-Ja Ser. "Kim Jong-un Ordered a Plan for a 7-day Asymmetric
War:officials." Korea JoongAng Daily 8 Jan. 2015. Korea JoongAng Daily. Web. 10 Mar.
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Millett, Allan. "The Korean War." The Korean War. Web. 12 Mar. 2015.
<http://www.gilderlehrman.org/history-by-era/postwar-politics-and-origins-coldwar/essays/korean-war>.
Millett, Allan. "Korean War | 1950-1953." Encyclopedia Britannica Online. Encyclopedia
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<http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/322419/Korean-War>.

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