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Landslides - Journal of the Japan Landslide Society

Vol . 45, No . 1 2008 , May , pp . 1-12, Original article

Discriminant analysis for landslides caused by the

Niigata heavy rainfall in July and the Mid


Niigata Prefecture Earthquake in October

Junko IWAHASHI, Hiromitsu YAMAGISHI, Izumi KAMIYA and Hiroshi P. SATO

Abstract
Discriminant analyses were done using -m grid data for slope angle, precipitation, peak ground acceleration, geology, curvature, geological structure, and slope aspect of affected areas by the heavy rainfall in July and the Mid Niigata Prefecture
Earthquake in October to explain occurrence of landslides. Amount of contribution to landslides was estimated by discriminant
for each parameter. The results are as follows. The slope angle is an important contribution factor, but in the case of the heavyrainfall, the precipitation contributes to landslides more than the slope angle. Remarkable differences of the contribution were observed in mud-rich turbidites of the Nishiyama stage and the Uonuma formation between the raindriven failures and the
earthquake-driven failures. The curvature showed larger contribution to the rain-driven failures than the earthquake-driven failures. The geology and geological structure showed large contribution to large landslides by the earthquake, and the slope aspect
displays regional differences.
Key words : the July

heavy rainfall, the Mid Niigata Prefecture Earthquake, landslide, GIS, discriminant analysis, slope
angle

m
GIS

GIS

GIS

Carrara et al.,

Guzzetti et al.,

Iwahashi et al.,

GIS

Yam-

agishi et al.,

Chigira and Yagi

corresponding author

Geographical Survey Institute

Tsukuba

JAPAN
Kitasato

Niigata University

J. of the Jpn. Landslide Soc., Vol.45, No.1

1 (2008)

Yamagishi et al

GISMAP TERRAIN

Yamagishi et al

mDEM

m
m

Yamagishi et al.,

mDEM
ArcGISESRISLOPE
SLOPE


Fig
Study areas and their surroundings

J. of the Jpn. Landslide Soc., Vol.45, No.1

2 (2008)


Fig
The grid percentage of landslides to the slope gradient

km

mm

Fig
Daily precipitation on July
,

mm

mm

cms

cms

J. of the Jpn. Landslide Soc., Vol.45, No.1

3 (2008)



Fig
The grid percentage of landslides to the daily precipitation

Fig
The grid percentage of landslides to the peak ground acceleration estimated by Suetomi,

slopes over degrees only

Ar-

cGIS

ArcGIS

Zevenbergen and Thorne

J. of the Jpn. Landslide Soc., Vol.45, No.1

4 (2008)



Fig
The grid percentage of small landslides to the curvatureslopes overdegrees only

yesno

dip

dip

dip

ArcGIS

dip

J. of the Jpn. Landslide Soc., Vol.45, No.1

5 (2008)


Table Legends for the geological data in contrast with

scaled geological maps





 

 


Items used to the discriminant analysis

J. of the Jpn. Landslide Soc., Vol.45, No.1

6 (2008)

Fig
Distribution of Miocene to Pleistocene sedimentary rocks, fold axes and faultscompiled from Ko

, Takeuchi et al .,
bayashi et al .,

DipGIS
IDWInverse Distance Weighted

Fig
Estimated geological structureslopes over degrees of Miocene to Pleistocene sedimentary
rocks only

dip

Yamagishi et al.,

dip

dip

km

dip

dip

Pike and Sobieszczhk

J. of the Jpn. Landslide Soc., Vol.45, No.1

7 (2008)

Fig
The grid percentage of landslides to the slope aspect

SPSSSPSS Inc.

J. of the Jpn. Landslide Soc., Vol.45, No.1

8 (2008)

the Mid Niigata Prefecture EarthquakeYamakoshi area


small landslide
Discriminant
function
coefficient

Geological structure
Slope aspect

Decrease in hit rate


Discriminant
without the variable Rank
function
coefficient
whole
landslide

null

null




Tochio area

Decrease in hit rate


Discriminant
without the variable Rank
function
coefficient
whole
landslide




Izumozaki area

Decrease in hit rate


Discriminant
without the variable Rank
function
coefficient
whole
landslide




whole

landslide

null

null

null

null

null

null

null

null

null

null

null

null

null
null

null
null
null

null

null

null
null

null

null

null

null
null
null

null

null
null
null
null
null
null
null

null
null

Hit rate for the whole

Hit rate for landslides

F. : formation, S. : stage null : excluded variables by the stepwise method

Decrease in hit rate


without the variable Rank





Slope gradient
Peak ground acceleration
Daily precipitation
Plan curvature
Profile curvature

Absolute value of plan curvature

Absolute value of profile curvature


Miyama S.sandrich
Uonuma F.sandrich
Uonuma F.
silt

Haizume F.
sandy siltstone
Nishiyama S.sandstone

Nishiyama S.
sandrich turbidite

Nishiyama S.
sandy siltstone

Nishiyama S.
mudrich turbidite

Nishiyama S.
massive mudstone
Siiya S.sandstone

Siiya S.
sandrich turbidite

Siiya S.
massive mudstone
Horizontal dip
Daylighting dip
Parallel dip
Hangnail dip
dip

Infacing dip
dip

Infacing dip
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW

the

Niigata heavy rainfallsmall landslide

large landslidescarp

Geology

9 (2008)

Continuous-valued variables

J. of the Jpn. Landslide Soc., Vol.45, No.1


Table Standardized canonical discriminant function coefficients and ranks for contribution for each variable

dip

dip

dip

dip

J. of the Jpn. Landslide Soc., Vol.45, No.1

10 (2008)

dip

DEMDEM

J. of the Jpn. Landslide Soc., Vol.45, No.1

11 (2008)

Carrara, A., Cardinali, M., Detti, R., Guzzetti, F., Pasqui, V.,
Reichenbach, P.

GIS techniques and statistical models in evaluating landslide hazard. Earth Surface Process and
landforms,, pp.

.
Chigira, M., Yagi, H.

Geological and geomorphological


characteristics of landslides triggered by the

Mid Niigata prefecture earthquake in Japan.Eingineering Geology,


, pp.
.
Guzzetti, A., Carrara, A., Cardinali, M., Reichenbach, P.
Landslide hazard evaluation : a review of current techniques

and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy.Geomorphology,, pp.

GIS

pp

Iwahashi, J., Watanabe, S., Furuya, T.

Landform analysis
of slope movements using DEM in Higashikubiki area, Japan.
Computers & Geosciences,
, pp.

pp

Vol

No

pp

pp

pp

Vol

No
pp

pp

Bpp

Vol

No
pp

Vol

No
pp.

pp

Pike, R. J., Sobieszczyk, S.

Soil slip/debris flow localized


by site attributes and wind-driven rain in the San Francisco
Bay region storm of January

. Geomorphologyin press
.

pp

Vol

No
pp

NEWS

pp

pp

pp

Ver

no

pp

GIS
Vol

No
pp

Yamagishi, H., Ayalew, L., Watanabe, N., Marui, H. and Kawabe,


H.

Landslides induced by the July


,

heavy
rainfall in Mid Niigata Region.

pp

pp

Yamagishi, H., Takayama, T., and Iwahashi, J.

Landslides
and landscape change induced by heavy rainfall and intensive earthquake in Mid-Niigata, Japan : GIS analyses and interpretation of aerial photographs. In Marui, H. et aled
Disaster Mitigation of Debris Flows Slope Failures and
Landslides vol
Proceeding of the INTERPREVENT International Symposium September
,

in Niigata, Japanpp.

pp

Vol

No
pp

Zevenbergen, L.W., Thorne, C.R.

Quantitative analysis of
land surface topography. Earth Surface Process and Landforms,
, pp.

J. of the Jpn. Landslide Soc., Vol.45, No.1

12 (2008)

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