Division of Economic and Financial Studies Business Department A WORKBOOKLET IN THE ELEMENTS OF DEMOGRAPHY (VERSION 2) by NJ. PARR FARHAT YUSUFPreface This text has been prepared with the needs of students of “DEM127 :Elements of Demography”, a short, introductory, undergraduate unit taught at Macquarie University, in mind. The text consists of a set of exercises designed to test the student’s comprehension of the basic demographic definitions, measures and techniques, described in Chapters 1-6 and 8 of Demographic Techniques by Pollard, A.H., Farhat Yusuf and Pollard G.N. (1990), and a set of solutions to these exercises. We hope demography students, particularly those who enrol in “Elements of Demography” at Macquarie University, will use such exercises as a part of their preparation for tutorials, class tests and examinations! Nick Parr Farhat Yusuf Macquarie University January 1999EXERCISES 1. Sources of Demographic Data 1. In most countries there are three major sources of demographic data: census (C), vital registration (V) and sample surveys (S). Indicate the source from which the following data could be obtained in Australia by placing a letter C, V or S by the side of the data item. (a) The number of Lebanon-born Australian women on 6/8/1996 (b) The unemployment rate for Lebanese-born Australian women in June 1994 (© The number of births to Lebanon-born Australian women in 1996 2. The de-jure population of Australia at the 1986 census (30th June) was 16,018,400, The numbers of live births, deaths, permanent or long-term arrivals and permanent or long-term departures in the calendar years from 1986 to 1991 inclusive are given in the following table: Year Births Deaths Arrivals Departures 1986. 243,408 114,981 196,680 92,440 1987 243,959 117,321 221,620 97,770 1988 246,193 119,866 253,860 104,760 1989 250,853 124,232 238,050 120,040 1990 262,648 120,062 234,050 137,470 1991 257,247 119,146 237,230 143,710 (i Estimate the resident population of Australia on 30.6.1991, stating clearly any assumptions you make (i) Compare the relative importance of natural increase and net migration as components of population growth in Australia over the period 1986-1991 3. In the 1991 census the de facto population count of the Gold Coast was 15% higher than the de jure population count. Briefly explain why. 4, Write down a balancing equation accounting for the changes in each of the following population subgroups: (j) the number of Italy-born persons living in Australia i) the number of never married males living in AustraliaCc ales Feales 2. Basic Demographic Measures 1. Given below are four population pyramids (A-D). Match them against the following four population titles and justify your choices. Peru 1980 Philippines-born living in Australia in 1993 De facto couples in Australia in 1991 New South Wales 1993 A Malas Tovales Males Tevales 1 te ft tee2. Given below are four population pyramids (A-D). Match them against the following four population titles and justify your choices Australia 1995 Settler Arrivals in Australia in 1994-95 Hong Kong-born in Australia in 1994 Poland-bom in Australia in 1993 Hales Females B Hales Fenales Ke Penal kis pois tals Teles6 a 5-3 ia i §- 9 4-4 8-H H- i BB a: 5-3 - i §- 4 ag 3. Given below ar four population titles an tify your choices. Australia 1993 Full-time workers in Australia 1993 Part-time workers in Australia 1993 Convict arrivals to New South Wales 1816-1822 tales Tenales ay G- 6 5-3 - 4 §- 4 4-4 B- ne 5-3 a- 4 h- 8 fa- if a 9 a- 4 a tales Fenles i 50 a: Males opulation pyramids (A-D). Match them against the following Females Females4. The estimated population of Australia (in thousands) distributed by age and sex for 6.8.1991 is given in the following table: Age Number | Number of of Males | Females (000s) __| (000s) 0-4 652.3 619.4 5-14 1,290.7 1,223.1 15-24 [1,405.9 [1,354.9 25-34 | 1,416.5 | 1,408.9) 35-44 [1,319.4 | 1,303.3 45-54 960.3 915.8. 35-64 734.1 7287 65-84 792.0 | 1,004.4 854 44.2 110.0 (i) Represent the data in the form of a population pyramid Gi) For Australia on 6.8.1991 calculate the sex ratio the child-woman ratio the dependency ratio 5. The numbers of women (in millions) aged between 15 and 45 and age-specific fertility rates for females for China in 1987 are as follows Age (x) ‘Number of Women Aged x | ASFR on 30/6/1987 (per 1000 women) 15-24 123 Gi 25-34 80 139 35-44 60 21 Female age-specific fertility rates for other ages are zero. Calculate the number of births and the general fertility rate for China in 1987. 6, In 1986 the crude death rate for Melbourne was 9.6 per 1000 population, and 2.90 percent of all deaths were at age under | year. There were 62,400 births during 1986 giving a crude birth rate of 19.2 per 1000 population. Calculate the infant mortality rate for Melbourne in 1986.rate per 1000 women tween the 250 200 [f* B - 150 soo Lom 50 WA i8, The estimated numbers (in thousands) of males and of females and labour force participation rates (per cent) for Australia in June 1991 are as follows: ‘Age () Number of [Number of | LabourForce ] Labour Force Males (000s) _| Females (000s) | Participation _| Participation Aged x Aged x Rate for Males | Rate for (%) Females (%) 0-14 1963, 1863, 0.0 0.0 15-19 665 632, 52.7 30.1 20-24 736 713 85.8 733 25-34 1413, 1409 93.5 65.5 35-44 1336 1333 93.2 70.2 45-54 1053 1007 88.3 65.4 55-59 384 375 70.1 46.6 60-64 356 358 46.6 146 65+ 836 lia 8.3 2.4 For Australia in June 1991 calculate: (i) the sex ratio of the population il) the sex ratio of the labour force ii) the sex ratio of persons not in the labour force (iv) the dependency ratio 9, Ina population the total number of females aged 20-24 is 200,000, and, of these, the number in employment is 150,000 and the number unemployed and actively seeking work is 25,000, calculate the labour force participation rate for females aged 20-24. 10. The estimated population of Australia increased from 7.6 million in mid 1947 to 17.5 million in mid 1993. Calculate the average annual growth rate for Australia for the 1947-1993 period. 11, On 30/6/1991 Victoria’s population was estimated to be 4.4 million people and to be growing at an annual rate of 1.1%. Queensland’s population was estimated to be 3.0 million people and to be growing at a rate of 2.2% per annum. If Victoria's population continues to grow at 1.1% per annum and Queensland’s population continues to grow at 2.2% per annum, in which year will Queensland's population equal Victoria’s in size?12, The estimated population of New South Wales on 30.6.1993 was 6.0 million people. If New South Wales population grows continuously at 1.2% per annum until 30.6.1998 and at 1% per annum thereafter, in which year will it reach 7 million? 13. The population of Indonesia on 30.6.1990 was 179.4 million persons. Assuming the average annual population growth rate between 1.1.1987 and 30.6.1990 was 1.9% per annum, estimate Indonesia’s population on 1/1/1987. 14, How many years will it take a population growing at 1.2% per annum to: () double in size? Gi) triple in size? 103. Life Tables and Stationary Populations 1. Ina life table which of the following would be expected to have the smallest value? @)iqo ) ipo (um @) gio (©) spiro imo 2. Ina life table which one of the following would be expected to have the smallest value and why? (@)lo- Lo (b) Lo - (©) bo-h 3. Which of the following are true (a) & is always greater in value than &, (b) 10Px = sPx + sPrvs (©) sLao = Inv@20 - laoers + sdaokas (d) lx is always greater than or equal in value to iL 4, Fill in the blanks in the following excerpt from a complete life table for Australian males: be ade 10x. ibe Tx & 100,000 | 2,593 | 02593 [98,185 _| 6,989,384 97,407 | 165 97,307 [6,891,199 | 70.75 97,242 [101 [00104 [97,192 69.86 (00080_| 97,102 _| 6,696,700 | 68.94 97,063 | __ 65 _| .00067__| 97,031 _| 6,599,598 | 67.99 al@|a]e)s]-]o)* 96,941 30 | 00052 | 96,916 | 6,405,597 | 66.085. Using the life table in question 4, calculate: ( life expectancy at birth for a male i) the probability a new born male will die in his first year of life i) the probability a male will survive from birth to his second birthday (iv) the probability a male aged 2 years exactly will survive the next four years (v) the probability two males both aged 2 exactly will survive the next four years (vi) the probability a male aged 2 last birthday will survive the next four years (vii) the expected age at death of a male aged 2 exactly (viii) the proportion of the life table population aged under 4 (ix) the life table crude death rate (X) the life table crude birth rate Gd) pr (aii) Ty 6. Fill in the blanks in the following excerpt from an abridged life table (radix 1, = 100,000) for Norwegian males: x im ae Ge Dx ae T & 40 96,566 769 00796 99204 480,908 | 3,680,505 | 38.1 45 1,071 01118 476,308 | 3,199,597 | 33.4 50 94,726 1,725 98179 _| 469,318 | 2,723,289 355 93,001 02908 97092, 2,253,971 | 24.2 60 90,297 4,618 05114 94886 439,940 | 1,795,726 | 19.9 65 85,679 7,813 09119 90881 408,863 70 77,866 12,202 15671 84329 358,825 946,923 | 12.2 75 80 47,735_| 47,735 1.0000 00000 304,600| 6.4 7. Using the life table in question 6, calculate: (@ the probability a male aged exactly 50 will die in the next 5 years Gi) the proportion of males aged 40-44 last birthday who will survive the next five years (iii) the proportion of males aged 40-44 last birthday who will survive the next ten years (Gv) the proportion of males aged over 40 who survive the next five years (¥) the probability that a male aged 60 exactly and a male aged 65 exactly both will die in the next five years (vi) the probability a new born male will survive to at least age 80 (vii) the median age at death 24, Measures of Fertility 1. If two populations have identical values for age-specific fertility rates, which of the following measures of fertility also must have identical values: (a) crude birth rate (b) general fertility rate (0) total fertility rate 2. For Australia in 1988 the sex ratio at birth is 105 males per 100 females and age- specific fertility rates (per woman) are as follows: ‘Age ‘ASFR (per woman) 15-19 0.02 20-24 0.09 25-29 [0.14 30-34 0.09 35-39 0.03 40-44 0.01 45-49 0.00 Calculate the total fertility rate and the gross reproduction rate for Australia in 1988, B3. The estimated age-sex distributions of the Philippines-born, Viet Nam-born and Australia-born populations of Australia for 30.6,1993 given in the following table: Age (&) ‘Number Aged x (in thousands) Philippines-bom ‘Viet Nam-bom, Australia-born Males Females | Males Females | Males Females O-4 0.83 0.85 0.43 0.36 647.68 615.21 59 2.90 2.77 158 1.49 607.62. 577.83, 10-14 3.66 3.46 4.78 435 579.43 549.06 15-19) 3.20 3.10 833 7.87 577.43 549.16 20-24 2.32 3.14 8.98 8.55 615.70 594.45 25-29 2.45 5.72 937 8.16 525.92 516.96 30:34 3.41 8.69 10.68 8.95 536.46 534.45 35-39 3.67 9.17 9.54 9.17 486.21 485.68 40-44 3.13 71.75 5.89 3.97 440.89 439.68 45-49 181 4.16 3.22 2.88 378.45 377.42 50-59 137 2.96 3.81 4.22 521.79 533.51 60+ 1.62 3.35 4.02 4.87 836.17 1100.60 For these three birthplace groups the distributions of births by age of mother, and some T, values from the life table (Io = 100,000) which describes the mortality of women in each of the three birthplace groups are presented in the following tables: ‘Age of Mother Number of Births Philippines-born | Viet Nam-born Australia-bom 15-19 37 90 1714 20-24 296 696 41,576 25-29) 815 1,258. 66,293, 30-34 923 1,228 54,778 35.39) 545, 651 17.444 40-46 123 163 2,495. xt 15 [6,344,227 20 | 5,851,191 25 | 5,359,316 30 | 4,868,649 35_| 4,379,285 40__| 3,891,689 45 | 3,406,894 The sex ratio at birth for each group is 105 males per 100 females For each of the three country of birth groups calculate: @ the crude birth rate il) the general fertility rate Gi) the total fertility rate Gv) the gross reproduction rate (v) the net reproduction rate Which of these measures of fertility are affected by the differences in the age-sex distribution of the three birthplace groups and how? 44, For Indonesia in 1991 the percentage of the total female population in each of the reproductive age groups, age-specific fertility rates for females and estimates of the probabilities for females surviving from birth to the reproductive age groups are as follows: ‘Age (3) Percentage of Female | ASFR (per 1000 Estimated Probability Population Aged x | women) of a Female (%) Surviving From Birth tox 15-19 109 7 0.92 20-24 92 162 0.91 25:29, 88 157 0.90 3034 13 IT 0.89 35.39 62 B 0.88 40-44 43 23 0.87 45-49 47 7 0.86 ‘The sex ratio at birth in Indonesia is 105 males per 100 females and the sex ratio for the total population is 98 males per 100 females. For Indonesia in 1991 calculate: @ the total fertility rate (ii) the gross reproduction rate (iii) the net reproduction rate (iv) the ger eral fertility rate () the crude birth rate 5. For Population A age-specific fertility rates are as follows: ‘Age 'ASFR (per 1000 women) 15-24 TAS 25-34 | 100.54 35-44 63.85 45-49 0.00 Assuming given below are from the life table for females: x Ie 0 100,000 20 98,500 30 98,000 40 97,280 For the Population A estimate: (i) the total fertility rate Gi) the gross reproduction rate Gii) the net reproduction rate 15 the sex ratio at birth was 105 males per 100 females and that the values5. Measures of Mortality 1. For Australia in 1993 which one of the following statements is true: (a) Infant deaths from exogenous causes outnumber those from endogenous causes and neonatal deaths outnumber postneonatal deaths (b) Infant deaths from endogenous causes outnumber those from exogenous causes and neonatal deaths outnumber postneonatal deaths (©) Infant deaths from exogenous causes outnumber those from endogenous causes and postneonatal deaths outnumber neonatal deaths (@) Infant deaths from endogenous causes outnumber those from exogenous causes and postneonatal deaths outnumber neonatal deaths 2. The numbers (in thousands) of single Australian males aged 15+ and of married Australian males and numbers of deaths to single males and to married males by age in 1994 are given in the following table: [Age ‘Number of Males (000s) Number of Deaths Never Married | Married Never Married_[ Married 15-24 ne 77 1301 4l 25-34 651.9 711.0 1,200 442 35-44 224.3 1,018.3 882, 114 45-54 94.5 910.9 721 2,480, 35-64 55.0 617.6 1,131 5,452 65-74 43.5 478.9 2,960, 17,845, 15% 22.9 220.7 2,050 17,249 For single males aged 15+ and for married males calculate (@ the crude death rate i) using married males as the standard population, the directly standardised death rate (iii) using married males as the standard population, the indirectly standardised death rate Explain why single males have the lower crude death rate but the higher standardised death rates. 163. Age-specific death rates for the Aboriginal for the Non-Aboriginal populations of South Australia in 1981 and the percentage of the total (Aboriginal and non- Aboriginal) population of South Australia in each age group are as follows ‘Age (x) ASDR, (per 1000) | ASDR, (per 1000) | Percentage of Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal | South Australian Population Population Population Aged x o-4 47 28 7 5-14 04 03 14 15-24 13 10 14 25-44 25 13. 27 45-64 15.0 88 24 65+ 67.4 54.7 14 Using the total population of South Australia as the standard population, calculate directly standardised death rates for the Aboriginal population of South Australia and for the non-Aboriginal population of South Australia. ”6. Population Estimates and Projections 1. The following table shows the number of females (in thousands) in Australia on 30,6.1986 in some age groups and projected numbers of females in Australia in 1991 for some of these age groups ‘Age | Number of Femates in 1986 (0005) [ Projected Number of Femates in 1991 (000s) 0-4 319.7 59) 365.1 37E5 10-14 | 698.0 15-19 644.1 627.0 20-24 [633.1 612.6 35.29 | 648.7 652.0 3034 [618.1 6470 35-39 612.1 615.9 40-44 | 48.6 608.5 45-49 | 399.1 4178 30-54 [349.1 35.59 60-64 | 3582 Ina 65-6) | 298.2 ox [655.2 ‘The projection assumes © there is no migration between 1986 and 1991 ‘© the sex ratio at birth remains constant between 1986 and 1991 at 105 males per 100 females ‘© mortality rates for females between 1986 and 1991 are described by the 1981 Australian life table for females, The ,L,, column of this life table is given in the following table: x [ale 0 _| 495,259 S| 494,251 To [493,780 15 | 2,452,538 40 | 484,705 45_| 479,875 30__| 472,169 35__| 460,382 60 | 442,607 65__| 415,737 70__|_375,241 75__| 760,973 ‘© age-specific fertility rates remain constant at 1986 levels. These are as follows: ‘Age | ASFR (per woman) 15-19 | 0.02 20-24 | 0.09 25-29 | 0.14 30-34 [0.09 35.39 | 0.03, 4044 [001 45-49 [0.00 18(® Calculate the numbers of females in 1986 and the projected numbers of females in 1991 in the remaining age groups (i.e. fill in the blanks). (ii) The Australian Bureau of Statistics intercensal estimates of the population of Australia for 30.6.1991 are presented below. Briefly explain how and why the official estimates of the 1991 population of Australia to differ from the projections in part (i). ‘Age "ABS Estimates of Number of Females in 1991 (000s) o4 619.0 59 620.4 10-18 603.1 15-19 664.6 20-24 689.1 25-29 696.8 30-34) TLS 3539) 664.2 40-44 639.0 45-89 302.7 30-54 405.5 35-59 345.4 60-64 333.1 65-69 348.5 70+ Ris 2. The following data are for China in 1990, ‘Age Number of | Age-specific] Age (x) T Females in Rate of (from 1990 1990 (millions) | Female-child female life Fertility (per table) woman) O14 150.1 0 0 7,213,035 15-29, 170.7 0.05212 15 5,771,247 30-44 112.4 0.00956. 30 4,348,278 45-59 64.6 o 45, 2,953,149. 60+ 50.9 oO 60 1,624,831 Total 348.7 75 533,975, (® project the female population to the year 2005 assuming fertility and mortality will remain constant at 1990 levels and there will be no migration in and out of China. Gi) briefly explain why your projection shows the female population of China increasing even though it is assumed fertility will be below replacement level 3. Between 30,6,1974 and 30.6.1984 the estimated population of Liberia rose from 1.50 million to 2.15 million. Estimate the population of Liberia on 1.1.1981, stating clearly any assumptions you make.SOLUTIONS 1. Sources of Demographic Data 1. (a) Census (©) Survey (©) Vital registration 2. (i) Assuming one half of the births, deaths, arrivals and departures in a calendar year occur between Ist January and 30th June, Estimated population on 30.6.1991 = 17,260,256 (ii) Year Natural Net Migration Increase 1986 128,427 104,240 1987 126,638 123,850 1988 126,327 149,100 1989 126,621 118,010 1990 142,586 96,580 1991 138,101 93,520 ‘Natural increase accounted for 52.8% of population growth between 30,6,1986 and 30.6,1991 and net migration the remaining 47.2%. Both natural increase and net migration were significant sources of population growth, with natural increase being slightly the larger component, In 1988 net migration actually was the larger component of growth, Net migration fluctuated more from year to year than did natural increase. Thus changes in population growth from year to year were mostly due to changes in net migration. 3. The de facto count includes all persons in an area on census night. The de jure count is of persons usually resident in an area. The many tourists and other short-term visitors to the Gold Coast would be included in the de facto count but not in the de jure count for that area. 4.) P= Po-D+1-E where P, denotes the numberof Italy-born persons in Australia at time t denotes the number of deaths to Ttaly-born persons living in Australia between O and t 1 denotes the number of Italy-born persons arriving in Australia between O and t E denotes the number of Italy-born persons departing from Australia between 0 and t (i) P,= Py +B-D+1-E-M where P, denotes the number of never married males in Australia at time t BB denotes the number of male births in Australia between 0 and t D denotes the number of deaths to never married males in Australia between 0 and t I denotes the number of never married males ariving in Australia between O and t E denotes the number of never married males departing from Australia between 0 and t M denotes the number of first marriages of males between 0 and t 202. Basic Demographic Measures 1, Pyramid A represents members of De Facto couples in Australia in 1993. The shape of this pyramid indicates the population it represents consists mostly of young adults, and contains no persons under 15 years of age. In this population the average age of males is higher than that for females. Members of de facto couples are usually young, adults, Males in de facto relationships on average are slightly older than their females counterparts. Pyramid B represents Philippines-born persons living in Australia in 1993. Pyramid B represents a population in which there are many more females than males. A clear majority of Philippines-born persons Australia is female. This reflects that many more Filipino females than Filipino males migrate to Australia as spouses. Pyramid C represents Peru in 1980. Pyramid C represents a population in which fertility levels and mortality levels have been high. Peru, like most other less developed countries, has experienced relatively high levels of fertility and mortality. Pyramid D represents New South Wales in 1993. The shape of pyramid D indicates the population it represents has had low levels of fertility and mortality in recent years ‘New South Wales has experienced such low levels of fertility and mortality in recent years. 2. Pyramid A represents Hong Kong-born persons in Australia in 1994. The shape of this pyramid indicates a population in which the largest numbers are in the late teens, early 20s and in the mid-adult ages. In the mid-adult ages the number of females is, noticeably greater than the number of males. Numbers in the young child ages are very low in this population. In the Hong Kong-born population of Australia, numbers in the late teens and early 20 are large, partly because of student movements from Hong Kong to Australia. The number of Hong Kong-born persons in the mid-adult ages is relatively large, reflecting the young ages of migrants at arrival and that most movements from Hong Kong to Australia occurred relatively recently (late “80s and early ‘90s). The number of Hong Kong-born females in the mid-adult ages is noticeably larger than the number of males because of male breadwinners returning to work in Hong Kong. The number of Hong Kong-born young children in Australia is low because of low fertility in Hong Kong in recent years and because the children born to Hong Kong-born migrants whilst in Australia are Australia-born, and not Hong Kong-born. Pyramid B represents settler arrivals in Australia in 1994-95. Pyramid B represents a population persons in the young adult ages and early childhood ages are more numerous than persons in other age groups. Migrants to Australia are most commonly in the young adult or the early child ages. Pyramid C represents Australia in 1993, The shape of this pyramid indicates the population it represents has had low levels of fertility and mortality in recent year. Australia has experienced low levels of fertility and mortality. 21Pyramid D represents the Poland-born population of Australia in 1993. Pyramid D represents a population with a large bulge in numbers in the 65-74 age range and a smaller bulge in numbers in the 35-44 age range, Much of the migration from Poland to Australia occurred in the period just after the end of World War II. The only other period since World War I in which numbers of migrants from Poland to Australia ‘were significant was in the early 1980s. Many of the post-war Polish migrants who arrived in Australia as young adults are in the 65-74 age range in 1993, and many of the Polish migrants who arrived in Australia in the early 1980s as young adults are in the 35-44 age range in 1993. 3. Pyramid A represents Australia in 1993, The shape of this pyramid indicates the population it represents has had low levels of fertility and mortality in recent year Australia has experienced low levels of fertility and mortality, Pyramid B represents part-time workers in Australia in 1993. Pyramid B represents a population in which all members are aged over 15, most being in the working ages, and in which a clear majority is female. A clear majority of part-time workers in Australia is female and all part-time workers are over 15. Pyramid C represents full-time workers in Australia in 1993. Pyramid B represents a population in which all members are aged over 15, most being in the labour force ages, and in which a clear majority is male, A clear majority of full-time workers in Australia is male and all full-time workers are over 15 Pyramid D represents convict arrivals in New South Wales 1816-1822. Pyramid D represents a population in which the overwhelming majority of the population is male and in which most are in the young adult ages, The population contains a few persons aged under 15. Convicts arriving in New South Wales were mostly male and mostly young adults. A few were under 15 years of age 2Population: falas 100 females ‘hildren per 1000 wo 27. Graph A represents ASFRs for Malawi in 1992, The n-shape of this graph is a common feature of graphs of female ASFRs. Graph A indicates very high levels of fertility. Along with most other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, in the early 1990s Malawi experienced very high fertility rates. Graph B represents ASFRs for Australia in 1961, Graph B indicates moderately high levels of fertility and a fairly early age pattern of childbearing, Such a pattern of fertility was found in Australia in the early 1960s during the latter stages of the post-war baby boom. Graph C represents ASFRs for Australia in 1990, Graph C indicates low levels of fertility and a late age pattern of childbearing. Such a pattern of fertility was found in Australia in the early 1990s. Graph D represents ASDRs for Australia in 1990. Graph D shows very low values throughout the 15-49 age range. Mortality rates for females in developed countries such as Australia took such values during the early 1990s. 8. (i) sex ratio of population = 99.3 males per 100 females (ii) sex ratio of labour force = 137.5 males per 100 females (iil) sex ratio of persons not in the labour force = 72.6 males per 100 females (iv) dependency ratio - ‘number not in 15-64 age range to number in 15-64 age range = 49.1 per 100 number not in labour force to number in labour force = 103.9 per 100 9, Labour force participation rate for females aged 20-24 = 87.5%. 10, Average annual growth rate = 1.8 percent per annum, 11. In the year 2026. 12, In the year 2007 13. Estimate population of Indonesia on 1.1.1987 = 167.9 million 14, (57.8 years Gi) 91.6 years, 243. Life Tables and Stationary Populations 1.@ 2. (b) because the distribution of deaths in the first year of life by age at death is heavily skewed towards the lower end of the 0-1 age range. Hence the number of person years lived in this interval will be closer to ly than to lo 3. (©) and (4) are true. he ide 1s Le Ty. & 100,000 | 2,593 | 02593 [98,185 _| 6,989,384 | 69.89 97,407 | 165 | .00169 | 97,307_| 6,891,199 | 70.75, 97,242 | 101 | 00104 | 97,192 _| 6,793,892 | 69.86 97,141 |__78 | .00080_| 97,102 | 6,696,700 | 68.94 97,063 | 65 | .00067_| 97,031 | 6,599,598 | 67.99 96,998 | 57__ | .00059_| 96,970 _| 6,502,567 | 67.04 ale]=Je)e]—le]x |= 96,941 | 50 | .00052_[ 96,916 | 6,405,597 | 66.08 5. (i) &) = 69.89 years Gi) 10 = 0.02593 (ii) loly = 0.97242 (iv) l/h, = 0.99690 (¥) (l/h)? = 0.99382 (assuming their mortality risks are independent) (vi) Le/iL2 = 0.99716 (vii) &; + 2 = 71.86 years (viii) (To - Ts) To = 0.055768 (ix) 1000*l9/To = 14.3 deaths per 1000 population (x) 1423 births per 1000 population (xi) Ip = 0.99831 (xii) Te - Ls = 6,308,681 256. x E ate ocean [eae |r Ts ee 40 96,566 769 00796. 99204 _| 480,908 | 3,680,505 | 38.1 45 95,797 1,071 01118 98882 476,308 | 3,199,597 | 33.4 50, 94,726 1,725 01821, 98179 469,318 | 2,723,289 | 28.7 55 93,001 2,704 02908 97092 __| 458,245 | 2,253,971 | 24.2 60 90,297 4,618 05114 94886 | 439,940 | 1,795,726 | 19.9 65 85,679 7,813 09119, 90881 408,863 | 1,355,786 | 15.8 70 77,866 12,202 15671 84329 | 358,825 946,923 | 12.2 cH 65,664 17,929 27304 .72696 283,498 588,098 | 9.0 80 47,735 _| 47,735. 1.0000 00000 _| 304,600 304,600 | 6.4 7. @ sdso/lso = 0.01821 (ii) sLas/sLao = 0.99043 Gil) SLso/sLo = 0.97590 (iv) Tas/Tuo = 0.86934 (v) (sdeo/leo)*(sdes/les) = 0.00466 (assuming their mortality risks are independent) (vi) lno/lp = 0.47735 (vii) between 75 and 80 (79.37 if linear interpolation is used) 64. Measures of Fertility 1. ©) only 2. TFR = 1.90 births per woman GRR = 0.927 daughters per woman 3 ‘Measure Philippines-born | Viet Nam-born ‘Australia-born CBR (per 1000) _[ 32.27 29.87 14.26 GFR (per 1000) __| 73.44 83.95 62.27 TFR 2.18 241 1.82 GRR 1.07 1.18 0.89 NRR 1.04 115 087 ‘ASFR (per 1000 women) ‘Age Philippines-bom | Viet Nam-born Australia-born 15-19 18.39 11.43 21.33 20-24 94.26 81.40 69.94 25-29 142.48 154.17 128.24 30-34 106.21 137.21 102.49 35-39 59.43 70.99 35.92 40-44 15.87 27.30 5.67 ‘The CBR and GER are affected by differences in age structure. That the Philippines- born and Viet Nam-born have higher a CBR than the Australia-born reflects not only their having higher ASFRs but also that females of reproductive age form much higher proportions of the populations of these two migrant groups. The CBR for the Philippines-born is higher than that for the Viet Nam-born, even though the TFR for the Philippines-born is lower, because females of reproductive age form a larger proportion of the Philippines-born population. The values of the GFRs reflect not only the values of ASFRs but also the distributions of women within the reproductive ages. Thus, for example, the GFR for the Philippines-born is lowered by a high proportions of women of reproductive age being in the 35-39 and 40-44 age groups, groups with relatively low ASFRs. 24, () TER = 3.03 births per woman i) GRR = 1.48 daughters per woman Gil) NRR = 1.33 (iv) GER = 107.94 births per 1000 women aged 15-44 (or 98.07 births per 1000 women aged 15-49) (v) CBR = 25.46 births per 1000 women 5.) TER = 2.3584 births per woman Gil) GRR = 1.1504 daughters per woman ii) NRR = 1.1269 285. Measures of Mortality 1. (b) 2 Single Males Married Males CDR Ger 1000) 4.26 11.08 Directly SDR (per 1000) _| 19.20 11.08 Indirectly SDR (per 1000) | 20.45 11.08 ‘ASDR (per 1000) ‘Age Single Males Married Males 15-24 1.00 0.57 25-34 1.84 0.62 35-44 3.93 1.09 45-54 7.63 2.72 55-64 20.56, 8.83, 65-74 68.05 37.26 75+ 89.52, 78.16 Single males have a lower CDR than married males because of the age structure differences between the two groups: smaller proportions of single males are in the high mortality older ages and larger proportions of single males in the low mortality young adult ages. The differences in standardised death rates reflect only the differences in the ASDRs of the two groups and are unaffected by differences in the proportions in the different age groups of the single male and married male populations. Thus single males have the higher standardised death rates. Higher mortality of single males may be due to those with high mortality risks being less likely to marry or to marriage reducing mortality risks 3. SDR for Aboriginal population = 14.28 deaths per 1000 population SDR for Non-Aboriginal population = 10.50 deaths per 1000 population 296. Population Estimates and Projections 1.@ “Age Number of Females in 1986] Projected Number of Females in (000s) 1991 (000s) 04 579.7 S812 59 365.1 3785 10-14 628.0 364.6 1519 644.1 627.0 20-24 633.1 42.6 25.29 648.7 632.0 30-34 618.1 647.0 35-39 612.1 615.9 40-14 482.6 608.5 45-49 399.1 4778 30-54 349.1 392.7 35-59 302.6 ‘3404 60-64 358.2 348.6 65-69 298.2 3365 70% 655.2 708.0 Gi) For each age group for the number of females in the intercensal estimate is greater than the projected number of females. The discrepancies tend to be greatest for the young adult ages and the childhood ages. The causes of the discrepancies between the age distributions of the estimated and projected female populations are the differences between the age-specific fertility rates, the survivorship ratios for females, the sex ratio at birth and the numbers of net migrants by age that were measured for the 1986-1991 period and the values of these variables used in the projection. Of these differences, the most significant are the differences in net migration by age: the projection assumes zero migration whilst immigration statistics show that Australia had high levels of net immigration during this period. This accounts for the lower projected female population. The most common ages for Australian immigrants are the young adult and childhood ages. Hence, extent of the underestimation of numbers by the projection tended to be greater for these groups. Actual survivorship ratios for the 1986-1991 period were higher than those assumed in the projection (mortality rates for females declined between 1981 and 1991. However, because in absolute terms the change in the survivorship ratios was, slight (most SRs were close to 1 in 1981) the importance of the underestimation of survivorship ratios as a source of error in the projection is fairly slight. Changes in ASERs during the projection period were slight and, hence were not a major source of error. The underestimation of numbers of women in the reproductive ages in 1991, caused by the underestimation of migration and survivorship, is a source of error in the projection of the 0-4 age group. 302.@ ‘Age Number of | Projected Females in | Number of 1990 (millions) | Females in 2005 (millions) 0-14 150.1 1447 15-29) 170.7 148.1 30-44 112.4 167.4 45-59 64.6 107.0 60+ 50.9 69.8 Total 348.7 637.0 i) The female population is projected to increase even though below replacement fertility is assumed to prevail throughout the projection period because the proportion of the female population in the reproductive ages (15-44) will remain high (higher than the proportions in the female life table population) throughout the projection period and the proportion of females in the high mortality ages (60+) will remain low (lower than the proportion in the life table population) throughout the projection period 3, Assuming population grows exponentially at the average annual rate of growth for the period 30.6.1974-30.6.1984 (3.6%), estimated population on 1.1.81 is 1.90 million persons. 31