ClimateChangeImpactsonthe

Hudson

ArtDeGaetano
ProfessorandAssoc.Chair
Dept.ofEarthandAtmosphericScience,
DirectorNortheastRegionalClimateCenter

STEP4:
Highresolutionregionalclimateprojections

Tempfromglobalclimatemodel

Temperaturefromdownscaling

Seasonal
Projections
Temperature

Precipitation

23%

RegionalVariationinHeavy
Rain
16%
15%

67%

31%

3%
20%

ExtremeEventFrequency

SpatialVariationofDayswithSnowonGround19702000

DatesofCenterofVolumeRiverFlow

Drought

SHORT

MEDIUM

LONG

Storms

SeaLevelRise
TheIPCCmodelbasedapproach
locallandsubsidence
localrelativeoceanheight
globalthermalexpansion
meltwater

SeaLevelRise
Therapidicemeltscenarioreplacesthemodelbased
meltwatertermwithsealevelriserates(43+/4in/century)
observedduringpaleoclimateanalogues

Questions?

STEPONE:

FutureEmissionsfromHumanActivities
A1fi (higher)
continued dependence
on fossil fuels with
material-intensive
economy, ~970ppm by
2100

B1 (lower)
shift to alternative
energy sources with
service & informationfocused economy
~550ppm at 2100

STEP TWO:
Global Climate Modeling
Backcasttocompare
historicalsimulationswith
observedclimate.
Forecasttodevelopfuture
projectionsofchangesin
temperature,precipitation,
extremeevents,etc.

3differentclimatemodels

STEP 3:
Global Temperature Change
Likely
range:
1.1oC to
6.4oC
2oF to
11.5oF