KINH TE - PHAP LUAT CHAU AU

DONG CUR TR6N THj TRUdNG TRI CHINH QUOC T Hlf N NRV:
vi TH'VR CRC Vl'u TO RNH HUdNG
Ths. Nguyen Thi Vu Ha - Nguyen Thanh Hue
Trir&ng Dai hoc Kinh te - Dai hoc Qude gia Hd Noi
Su ra ddi cua ddng EUR dem da den hy
vgng ve mot cue tien te du manh de duy tri sir
can bang cua he thdng tai ehinh - tien te the
gidi, von le thugc qua muc vao ddng USD ke
tu sau hdi nghi Bretton Wood. Tuy nhien,
cuoc khiing hoang ng cdng chau Au hien nay
da khiln dilu nay bi nghi ngd. Vay tren thuc
tl, EUR CO vi the nhu the nao tren cac thi
trudng tai chinh qude te, dac biet la sau cude
khung hoang kinh te toan ciu nam 2007 2008 va vi thi cua ddng tien nay chiu sir chi
phii cua nhung ylu td nao? Bai vilt sau day
nhim muc dich tra Idi hai cau hdi neu tren.
L Vi the cua dong EUR tren cac thi
trudng tai chinh quoc te
Tren thi tru&ng ngogi hoi
K I tu khi chinh thue luu hanh din nay,
ding EUR luon chilm mot ty trgng khoang
37-38% tren thi trudng ngoai hdi va chi diing
vi tri thu hai sau ddla My. Cude khung
hoang tai chinh d My culi nam 2007 da
khiln cho ty trgng cua EUR tren thi trudng
ngoai hii tang len dang kl (hon 40% tu culi
nam 2007 din culi nam 2009). Gia tri cac
' Thj trudng t^i chinh cju6c it bao g6m: Thj trudmg
ngoai h6i, thj truemg tien t? qu6c tg, thi trufifng tin
dyng quoc te, thj tnrdmg trii phi^u qu6c xk vi thi
tnifmg churng khoin qu6c te.

giao dich cd lien quan den EUR khi quy ve

USD tang len ttr 1.232 ty USD nam 2007
din hon 1.556 ty USD nam 2010 (tuong
duomg vdi mGc tang la 26,3%)^. Tuy nhien
khiing hoang ng cdng d chau Au da khien
cho ty trgng cua ddng tien cua khu vuc nay
bi sut giam xudng dudi 40% (tinh den thang
4 nam 2010 la 39%).
Trong hoat ddng phai sinh lien quan den
trao doi ngoai hdi, vi the cua EUR va USD
ludn van dgng ngugc chieu nhau mot each rd
net. Cu thi la kl tii khi chinh thuc luu hanh
tren thi trudng, vi the cua dong EUR tien gan
sat nhat vdi vi the cua ddng USD, nhung
cang ve sau thi vi the cua hai ddng tien cang
each xa nhau theo chieu hudng ddng EUR
ngay cang giam dan vi the cua minh. Cu the
la vao nam 2001, ty trgng cua EUR chilm
hon 50% cac ddng tien trong giao dich ngoai
hoi phai sinh, nhung den nam 2009, con sd
nay chi con khoang 40%.
Ngugc lai vdi hoat ddng phai sinh lien
quan den trao ddi ngoai hoi, hoat dgng phai
sinh lien quan den lai suat ghi nhan mot sir
vugt len cua dong EUR. Ty le giao dich bang
ddng EUR la 39,1%, trong khi ty le cac giao
^ BIS, 2010, Foreign exchange and derivatives market
activity in April 2010.

46

NGHIEN COU CHAU AU EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N07 (130).2011

dich bang USD d miic la 34,1% (thap hon

5% so vdi EUR). Tuy nhien, gia tri cac giao
dich bang ddng USD cd xu hudng tang ke tu
nam 2000 trong khi gia tri cac giao dich bang
ddng EUR lai giam ddi chut vao nam 2007.
Gia tri giao dich bang Yen Nhat da giam dan

Ty trong cac
dong tien

2001

2004

2007

2010

(%)
Dola My

89.9

88.0

85.6

84.9

EUR

37.9

37.4

37.0

39.1

Yen Nhat

23.5

20.8

17.2

19.0

Bang Anh

13.0

18.5

14.9

12.9

sau khi tang len cao nhat vao dau 2007.

Khiing hoang tai chinh toan cau nam 20072008 da khien cho vi the cua ddng EUR cai
thien dan so vdi day vao nam 2007, tuy
nhien muc do tang ty trgng cua EUR trong
cac hoat ddng phai sinh lai suat cdn thap.

_ _
.....

Ty trgng c&c dong tien

giai do^n 2006 - 2009

USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

70
60
50
30
20,.-^;:^

Ngudn:

BIS,

2010,

Foreign

exchange

and

O Tai

derivatives market activity in April 2010.

Jan.

Jiuy

July

Jan.

July

Jaik.

Jvty

Ngudn: The international role of

the Euro. 2010.

* S6 lieu dugc \ky vio thang 4 hing nSm.

Ty trgng c^c d6ng tien trong

giao djch ngo^i lioi phai sinh
(%)

^~

USD
EUR
JPY
Cic dong tien khiic (die nirfrc piiit trign)
Ciic dong tien IcIiAc (cic nvtifc DPT)

""
^~~

Ty trpng cac dong tien.

trong ho^t dpng phai sinh
...
*.,,.
lai suat (%)

USD
EUR
JPY

C i c dong tiln Idiic (cic niriv pliit Irien)

C i c dong tiin khii (cic aain DPT)

70
60
50
40

'''

>.

, ^

.*...'

* ..." '

30
20 Y"

10
199

2001

2003

20QS

2007

2009

Ngudn: The international role of the Euro,

2010.

1999

2001

2003

Ngudn: The international

2010.

2003

2007

2009

role of the Euro,

^D0*ig ^(Jldl trin thi trttdng. tai

ehinh...

Tren thi trir&ng tiin t^ quoc te

Al

vdi USD xuong con 1 EUR = 1,4349 USD

Thi trudng tien te quIc tl giao djch chii

(20/12/2007) va 1 EUR = 1,4482 USD

ylu vdi 3 dong tien chinh la USD, EUR va

(21/01/2008)^ lam giam cac khoan tien gui

Yen Nhat, trong do USD chiem ty trgng Idn

bang EUR va tang cac khoan tiln gui bang

nhSt, xoay quanh miic tren 50% tir nam 1999

USD dii lai suat cac khoan tien giii bang EUR

den nam 2005. Din nam 2006, ty trgng USD

hip din hon so vdi cac khoan tien giii bing

tang dan, len miic cao nhat (60%) vao giai

USD.

doan cuoi nam 2007, dau nam 2008. Ngugc lai

vdi xu hudng do, ty trgng cua dong EUR tir
khi ra ddi den nam 2003 giii d miic 30%
nhung sau do giam dan va xuIng miic thap
nhat (20%) vao khoang culi nam 2007. Gia tri
cac khoan tien giii bSng Yen Nhat In djnh d
miic 5% trong suit khoang thdi gian tir 1999 2008 va c6 sir giam siit sau cuoc khung hoang
toan cau.

Tir cuoi nam 2008 den dau nam 2009,

khiing hoang kinh te bat dau bung no d My da
lam USD giam vi the so vdi EUR. Cu the la
trong giai doan nay, tren thj trudng tiln te, ty
trong cua USD da giam xuIng dudi miic 60%
trong khi ty trgng cua EUR da tang len miic
khoang 23%. Tuy nhien, kl tir culi nam 2009,
khi FED dua ra nhiing chinh sach hieu qua
giiip nIn kinh tl My phuc hIi trd lai va dau

Nguyen nhan ciia sir van dgng ngugc

hieu ve mot cuoc khung hoang ng cong chau

chilu trong ty le cac khoan tien giii dinh danh

Au ngay cang ro net da lam giam vi the cua

bang USD va EUR la do trong giai doan culi

EUR. Ty trgng cua EUR tren thj trudng nay

nam 2007, dSu nam 2008 EUR da giam gia so

vao cuoi nam 2009 chi con giii d miic 22%^.

http://www.ecb.int/stats/exchange/eurofxref/html/euro
fcref-praph-usd.en.html
" ECB (2008, 2009, 2010), The international role of
the EURO,
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/html/index.en.html

48

NGHIEN CQU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N07 (130).20n

Gia tr| cac khoan tien gui dirgrc dinh danh bang cac dong tien
So iirgng

Thi phan
(peicepCTgea; at oonstant eKcliaxie zates)

CUSD bflli<mi>

USD
EUR
JFY
o&er

USD
EtXR.
JFY

7,000

J
..-_ ^

6,000
5,000

4.000
3,000
2,000
1,000

i|||;![fU

ifllilli I

**-...

O
1999

2001

2003

2003

2007

2009

Ngudn: The international role of the EURO, 2010.

Tren thi trudng tin dung quoc te

Ke tir khi EUR ra ddi den nay, ty trgng
cac dong tien tren thj trudng cho vay kha on
dinh (ty trgng ciia USD xoay quanh mure 50%;
EUR xoay quanh miic 20% va Yen Nhat chilm
dudi 10%) trir mot sir bien dgng dang ke vao
nam 2006. Nam 2006, ty trgng USD tang len
khoang 55% trong khi ty trgng EUR va Yen

Nhat giam doi chiit. Dieu nay la do chi phi di

vay bing USD thSp hon so vdi chi phi di vay
bing EUR da thiic day viec di vay bing USD.
Chenh lech lai suat ciia cac khoan vay bang
USD va EUR nam 2006 theo ky han 1 thang, 3
thang, 6 thang va mot nam luon nam trong
khoang 1.6% din 2%.

Gia tri cac khoan cho vay qua bien gidi tinh theo cac dong tien
Sd lirgrng

Thi philn

CUSD billions)

Cperce^ilasei^ 34 coBstaaxt exchaOLSe rates)

USD
EUR
JPY

USD
EUR
JPY

otbjsr

8,000
7.000
6,000
S,000
4.000
3,000
2,000
1.000
0

8,000
7,000
6,000
3,000
4.000

111

I [I

3,000

ill

2,000
1.000

SO
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

80

ssis^

60

-^m ^
1

Ngudn: The international role of the Euro, 2010

30
20

fDeng l^Qldl triri thi tru'd^ng tai

49

ehinh...

Chenh lech lai suat cac khoan vay bing USD va EUR nam 2006

1thang i
5.09737 ,, 4 i 1 94319^^ ' ' , ' '.' 2.26
5.1988
3.08101
1.1,2
3 thSng
3.23614 ""' .9K''^f2.22<'
^6 th^ng '15.27789 ,^^,
3.4382
2.069
5.31296"
gl.nam '
Ngudn: http://www.econstats.com
Cuoc khiing hoang kinh tl My culi nam
2008 - diu nam 2009 da lam suy giam niem
tin cua cac ngan hang vao dong USD va hg
chuyen sang cho vay bang dong EUR. Tuy
nhien, vao cuoi nam 2009 khi ng cong chau Au
c6 dau hieu lam vao khiing hoang thi thi
trudng tin dung quIc tl lap tiic phan ling theo
chieu hudng ngugc lai. Ty trgng cua EUR tren
thi trudng nay tinh vao thang 12/2009 da giam
1.6% so vdi ciing ky nam trudc do^.
Tren thi trudng chiing khoan quoc te
Gia tri cua cac chung khoan ng^ djnh danh
bing EUR khong ngimg tang len kl tir khi no ra
ddi cho den nay (ngoai trir mot sir suy giam nam
2008 so vdi 2007 do anh hudng cua khung
hoang kinh tl toan cau). Ben canh do, ty trong
ciia EUR tren thi trudng nay cung tang, tir
khoang 20% (miic gin bing vdi Yen Nhat) vao
nam 1999 len hon 30% vao nam 2009 (trong khi
Yen Nhat chi chiem dudi 10%). Dilu nay cho
thay vi thi cua EUR da tang len so vdi khi mdi ra
ddi. Cung dl dang nhan thay, theo thdi gian,
EUR da thay thi Yen Nhat dl trd thanh ding
tien CO vj tri thii 2, sau USD.
Dilm dang luu y la nam 2005, ty trong cua
USD giam xudng miic thap nhit trong khi ty
trong ciia EUR tang len miic cao nhit va hai ty

lai suat cua cac trai philu ky han 5 nam va 2 nam

djnh danh bing EUR thap hon cac trai phieu
ciing ky han khac lan lugt la 11 % va 15%^.
Nam 2008, khi khiing hoang kinh tl dien
ra d My va c6 nguy co lan rgng ra toan cau,
FED da lien tuc cit giam lai suit va den thang
12/2008, lai suit cac chiing khoan ng dinh
danh bing USD ky han 2, 5 va 10 nam da giam
xuIng miic lan lugt la 0.89%, 1.5% va 2.18%,
trong khi cac chiing ng djnh danh bang EUR
ciing ky han lin lugt la 2.342%, 3.069% va
3.698%*. Lai suit cua cac churng khoan ng djnh
danh bing USD thap da thiic diy viec phat hanh
chiing khoan ng djnh danh bing EUR, tuy
nhien viec USD mit gia 2% so vdi EUR vao
culi nam 2008' lai ngan chan sir tang trudng
nay. Do do, tinh theo ty gia hien hanh, den culi
nam 2008, ty trgng ciia USD la 44.7%, tang nhe
(1.4%) so vdi cung ky nam 2007 trong khi ty
trgng cua EUR vSn giii" nguyen d muc 32.2%'".
DIU hieu vl cuoc khiing hoang ng cong
Hy Lap da khien cho culi nam 2009 ty trgng
cac chiing khoan ng djnh danh bing EUR giam
xuong miic 31.4% (giam 0.8% so vdi cuoi nam
2008) va tang ty trgng cac churng khoan ng djnh
danh bing USD len 45.8% (tang 1.1% so vdi
cuoinam 2008)".

trgng nay xIp xi nhau. Dieu nay la do nam 2005,

^ ECB (2008,2009,2010), sdd.
'Nt.
' ECB (2008, 2009,2010), sdd.
* Thj truemg churng khoin ng 1^ thj truemg m^ t^i do ' Gertrude Tumpel - Gugerell (2009), presentation
The Future of Reserve Currencies, ECB.
ding ti^n dugc dimg de djnh danh churng khoan
kh6ng phdi 14 ding tiln cua nude nguexi pMt hdnh turc '" ECB (2008,2009,2010), sdd.
"Nt.
..p
\k thi tnremg chi bao gIm cic giao dich qu6c ii.

50

NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N07 (130).2011

Ty trgng cac dong tien trong tone ngr quoc te

So lirgrng (nghin ty USD)

Thi phan
VSD
EUR

...-

iiiiiill
1999'

ajoi'

'2003

.-,

- ^

'u_

2005

1999

2001

!20O3

7001

200?

20QS

Ngudn: The international role of the EURO, 2010.

Diem dang luu y la nam 2005, ty trgng

cua USD giam xuong mire thap nhat trong khi ty
trgng cua EUR tang len miic cao nhat va hai ty
trong nay xap xi nhau. Dieu nay la do nam 2005,

nay. Do dd, tinh theo ty gia hien hanh, den cuoi

nam 2008, ty trgng cua USD la 44.7%, tang nhe
(1.4%) so vdi cung ky nam 2007 trong khi ty
trgng ciia EUR van giir nguyen d miirc 32.2%'^.

lai suat ciia cac trai phieu ky han 5 nam va 2 nam

DIU hieu ve cude khiing hoang ng cong

dinh danh bing EUR thip hon cac trai phieu

Hy Lap da khiln cho cuoi nam 2009 ty trgng

ciing ky han khac lin lugt la 11% va 15%'^.

cac chung khoan ng dinh danh bang EUR giam

xuIng muc 31.4% (giam 0.8% so vdi culi nam

Nam 2008, khi khung hoang kinh t l dien

2008) va tang ty trgng cac chiing khoan ng dinh

ra d My va co nguy co lan rgng ra toan cau,

danh bing USD len 45.8% (tang 1.1% so vdi

FED da lien tuc cat giam lai suit va den thang

culi nam 2008)'*.

12/2008, lai suit cac chimg khoan ng dinh

danh bing USD ky han 2, 5 va 10 nam da giam

Tren thi tru&ng trdi phieu quoc te

xuIng muc lin lugt la 0.89%, 1.5% va 2.18%,

Hoat dgng phat hanh trai phieu dinh

trong khi cac chiing ng dinh danh bang EUR

danh bing EUR tren thi trudng ng quoc te da

cung ky han lin lugt la 2.342%, 3.069% va

suy giam trong quy dau nam 2009 do cuoc

3.698%'^. Lai suit cua cac chiing khoan ng

dinh danh bing USD thip da thiic day viec phat
hanh churng khoan ng dinh danh bang EUR, tuy
nhien viec USD mit gia 2% so vdi EUR vao
culi nam 2008*'* lai ngan chan sir tang trudng
'^ ECB (2008,2009, 2010), sdd.
"Nt.
"* Gertrude Tumpel - Gugerell (2009), presentation
The Future of Reserve Currencies, ECB.

khung hoang da lam gia tang bien dgng tai

chinh toan ciu. Ting trai philu, ky philu dinh
danh bing EUR da giam xuIng miirc khoang
2.8 nghin ty vao quy diu tien cua nam 2009,
sau do khoi phuc len miic hon 3 nghin ty vao
nua sau ciia nam. Tren thuc te, phan Idn cac
trai philu, ky phieu dinh danh bing EUR dugc
" ECB (2008,2009, 2010), sdd.
'*Nt.

(Dang&atdl

trin thi trt^^tg

tai

ehinh...

phat hanh bdi cac thi chi tai chinh. Culi nam
2009, ty trgng ciia khu vuc nay xoay quanh
mire 69%. Miic dong gop nay Idn hon so vdi
mire dong gop cua no trong trai phieu, ky
phieu dinh danh bing USD va Yen Nhat (lin
lugt la 52% va 56%). Cung trong thdi gian
nay, ty trong cua khu vuc nha nude va cac to
chiic phi tai chinh trong phat hanh trai phieu,
ky phieu dinh danh bing EUR lin lugt la 6%
va 12%, thap hon miic dong gop cua no trong
phat hanh trai philu, ky philu dinh danh bing
Gia tri cac trai phieu quoc te dugrc djnh danh
bing EUR xet theo khu vuc phat hanh (Ty
USD)
(USD billions) C4c to chiic quoc tS
Cac thi chg t&i chinh
..ui fir Cac cong ty
. . . ^ ^ Cdc khu vvrc cong khac
oi Khu vvrc nhd nude

3,500
3,000

USD (lan lugt d mire 12% va 16%). Tuy

nhien, do dung lugng thi trudng trai phieu, ky
phieu ciia USD Idn hom so vdi EUR (4.7 nghin
ty so vdi 3.1 nghin ty) nen mac dii cac the che
tai chinh phat hanh trai phieu, ky phieu dinh
danh bang EUR d miic 69% (trong khi ty trgng
cua no trong phat hanh trai phieu, ky phieu
dinh danh bang USD thap hon la 52%) nen cac
to chiic nay van phat hanh mot lugng Idn hem
cac trai phieu, ky phieu dinh danh bang USD
trong hoat dong phat hanh ciia no.
Gia trj cac trai phieu quoc te dirgrc djnh danh
b i n g EUR xet theo khu v y c phat hanh (%, quy
IV nam 2009)
(percentages;
_ so
mtm od
' ^
__^^_^
, J,,

i i
i

3,500
2,500

2,000

2,000

1,500

1,500

1,000

jchu v^c nhd nudc

Cdc khu v^rc cong khdc
Cdc c6ng ty
Cdc the cha tai chinh
Cdc to chiic qu6c tS
Dung IiTQ^ng thj trirdrng (nghin tyS)

3,000

2,500

500

51

1,000

HIH

H..

500

0 .j;i;:itii;;::!!!{!ii>!)Mimn!ni|,n
0
20O3
2005
2007 2009
2001
1999
Sources: BIS and ECB calculations.
I) Includes public corporations, public banks and other public
financial institutions.

EUR

USD

JPY

Sources: BIS and ECB calculations.

I) Includes public corporations, public banks and other public
financial institutions.

Nguon: The international role of the Euro, 2010.

Trong dif trie ngogi hoi todn cau

cac quIc gia can thiep vao nen kinh te bang

each mua ban cac dong tien va no cung co moi

Du- trir ngoai hIi toan ciu khdng phai la

quan he mat thilt vdi can can thanh toan quoc

mot trong s i cac thi trudng tai chinh toan cau

tl. Do dd, ty trgng cac ding tien trong dir trCir

nhung viec xem xet tinh hinh sir dung dong

se phan anh ro net vi thi cua cac dong tien tren

EUR vdi vai tro la dong tiln du trir cung rat

cac thi trudng tai chinh toan ciu.

quan trgng. Dir trii ngoai hoi la phuomg tien de

52

NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N07 (130).20n

Ty trong cac ddng tien trong dur trCr ngoai hoi toan cau 1999 - 2008
S6 luyng (nghin ty USD)

Thj phan

USD I E H IJPY lOtlieraiireDcies Undisclosed

USD

EUR

-JPY
^70
60
50
40
30
20

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 i m Mi 2008

1n

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200? 200

Ngudn: The Future of Reserve Currencies, 2009.

So lieu tren cho thay USD la ddng tien

USD va EUR. Gia tri ddng EUR lien tuc tang

dugc dir trir nhieu nhat vdi ty trgng trong du

kl tir diu nam 2003, din culi nam 2003, EUR

trir ngoai hoi toan ciu tir 60% din 70%, dumg

da tang gia gin 20% so vdi USD [15]. Do do,

thii hai la dong EUR vdi ty le dao dgng tir 20 -

gia tri cac tai san dinh danh bang EUR va ty le

30%.

Ty trgng cua cac ddng tiln trong du trir

cua chiing trong du trii" toan ciu tang len.

ngoai hoi toan cau kha on dinh, ngoai trir sir

Ngugc lai vdi xu hudng do, ke tir dau nam

biln dong vao nam 2003 va 2005. Nam 2003,

2005, ding EUR lien tuc giam gia so vdi USD,

ty trong ciia USD trong dir trii ngoai hoi toan

tinh den culi nam 2005, EUR da giam gia 14%

cau giam ciing vdi do la sir gia tang ty trgng

so vdi USD [15]. Dilu nay lam cho gia tri cac

cua EUR. Nam 2005, ty trgng cua USD tang

tai san dinh danh bang EUR giam va gia tri cac

trd lai trong khi ty trgng cua EUR giam xudng.

tai san dinh danh bing USD tang len, dan den

Sir bien dgng dang chii y ve ty trgng cac dong

tang ty trgng ciia USD va giam ty trgng cua

tiln trong dir trir ngoai hdi tir nam 2003 din

EUR trong du trir ngoai hdi toan ciu.

nam 2005 dugc giai thich bdi hieu ling gia tn.

Mat khac, kl tir khi ra ddi cho din nay, ty

Sir thay doi trong ty gia USD/EUR da anh

trgng cua EUR trong du trii ngoai hIi toan cau

hudng den gia tri cac tai san dinh danh bing

da tang len trong khi ty trgng cua USD da

<I>&nq. ^(WQ. trin thi tnte^ng tai

53

ehinh.

giam doi chut. Dieu nay la do mot vai nguyen

dong EUR trong nhung nam gan day da tang

nhan nhu sau:

so vdi khi dong EUR bat dau chinh thiic dugc

* Thu nhdt, cac nude tren the gidi muon

dua vao sii dung. Mat khac, dong EUR dugc

phan tan rui ro va giam bdt sir phu thugc vao

sir dung nhilu nhat d cac nude EU khong phai

chinh sach tiln te ciia My. Nude di dau trong

la thanh vien Eurozone, sau do den khu vuc

phong trao nay la Lien bang Nga. Nude nay da

BIC My, trong khi do no dugc sir dung rat it d

tang ty trong ciia EUR trong ro tien te dugc sir

cac nude chau A - noi ding USD dugc sir

dung bdi Ngan hang Trung uong Nga tir 10% 20% vao thang 5 nam 2005, len lin lugt la
35%

(8/2005),

40%

(12/2005)

va 45%

(2/2007)'^

dung phi bien.

Nhu da noi d tren, ty trgng cua USD trong
dir trir ngoai hIi toan ciu khong ngimg suy

* Thic hai, tinh long cua cac tai san dinh

giam ke tir khi EUR ra ddi cho den nay. Cuoc

danh bing EUR da tang len dang kl. Mot cuoc

khiing hoang kinh tl My cang thiic diy xu

khao sat dugc thuc hien bdi Ngan hang Thanh

hudng nay. Ty trgng cua USD trong dir trii

toan Quoc tl (BIS) da dua ra kit qua la 74% cac

ngoai hIi toan cau tinh den cuoi nam 2008 la

Ngan hang Trung uong cho rang cac trai phieu

60.7% (giam 1.3% so vdi binh quan nam

dinh danh bing EUR cd tinh long cao, diing thir

2007)'' trong khi ty trong cua EUR cuoi nam

hai sau cac trai philu dinh danh bing U S D ' ^ DO

la ly do vi sao hg tin tudng sir dung cac tai san
dinh danh bing EUR trong du tru ngoai hIi ciia
minh.

2008 la 30% (tang 1.4% so vdi binh quan nam

2007)^. Ngay ca khi cuoc khiing hoang kinh tl
cua My din qua di va chau Au lam vao khiing
hoang ng, cac Ngan hang Trung uong van
khong tang ty trgng cua USD trong du trir

* Thif ba, cac giao dich sir dung ding

ngoai hIi cua minh. Thay vao do, tinh den cuoi

EUR da tang trong 10 nam trd lai day doi hoi

nam 2009, cac nude tilp tuc giam ty trong cua

cac Ngan hang Trung uong phai tich trii mot

USD xuIng miic 58.5%, giii nguyen ty trong

gia tri Idn hon cac tai san dinh danh bing EUR

cua EUR va tang ty trgng ciia cac ding tiln

trong du trii ngoai hIi cua minh.

(khong kl Yen Nhat) khac len 9.6% (diu nam

2008 miic nay la 7.8%)^'. Dilu nay la do trong

Nhin chung, tren cac thi trudng tai chinh

bii canh kinh tl toan ciu co nhilu biln dong,

toan ciu, ty le sir dung ding EUR vin thap

viec da dang hoa du trii ngoai hIi se giam bdt

hon so vdi USD. Tuy nhien, ty le su dung

riii ro cho cac nude.

" Ellas Papaioannou and Richard Portes (2008), The

international role of the euro: a status report, "Nt.
European Commission.
^' ECB (2008, 2009, 2010), sdd.
" ECB (2008, 2009,2010), sdd.

54

NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N07 (130).2011

Ty trgng cua khu virc Eurozone v i My trong tSng

GDP toan cau (theo PPP)
smices

100%
8OP/0

eop/o
40%
20%

0%
!.MUIKt,it;ftirit.MilMII M,HII I

euro area euro area Uiiited

(1997- {2001- States
2000) m i ) (mi2000)

United J ^
J ^
Stats (M7- QOOl(2001- 2000) 2006)
2006)

2. Cac yeu to anh hirdng den vj the

cua dong EUR

iKIuVTIcdTkigELR IM? IKIBC

va dong Yen la nhung dong tien dugc sir dung

rgng rai trong cac quan he kinh te quoc te,
trong dd quy md kinh tl tuomg duong vdi vi

Quy mo kinh te, do md ciia cua khu

the cac ddng tien.

vuc su dung dong EUR (Eurozone)

Ngoai quy md kinh te thi miic do md
Eurozone la mot khu vuc co quy mo kinh

cira cua khu vuc chau Au, My va Nhat Ban

te Idn (GDP theo ngang gia sire mua cua khu vuc

cung cho thay vi thi cua cac ding tiln nay tren

nay nam 2010 la 10.793,97 ty USD^^), dieu nay

cac thi trudng tai chinh qude tl. Do md cira

giai thich tai sao ngay tir khi mdi ra ddi ding

cua Eurozone trong thdi ky tir 2001 den 2007

EUR da dugc cac nude tren the gidi chip nhan

la gin 38%, tang 5% so vdi thdi ky tir 1997

va sii dung rgng rai. Tuy nhien, ddng EUR van

din 2000. Cung vdi xu hudng do, do md cua

ehua the thay the vai trd chu dao cua ddng USD

ciia My va Nhat Ban cung tang len dang ke

mot phan la do trong suot thdi ky tir 2002 din

(lin lugt la 25% va 23% trong thdi ky 2000 -

nay quy md kinh te ciia Eurozone con kem My.

2007). Tuy nhien, do md cua nen kinh te hai

Nam 2010, ty le dong gop ciia My,

nude nay vin thip hon so vdi Eurozone.

Eurozone va Nhat Ban lin lugt la 20,22%,

Nam 2009, gia tri xuit khiu cua

14,62% va 5,83%^^ Ba khu vuc nay da dong

Eurozone neu tinh ca ndi KhIi chilm 29,1%

gop gan 50% trong GDP toan cau. Dieu nay

tdng gia tn xuat khau toan cau, Idn hom rat

giai thich mot thuc tl la ddng USD, ddng EUR

nhieu so vdi My (8,6%.) va Nhat Ban (4,7%).

Neu khdng tinh gia tri thuong mai ndi KhIi, ty

^^ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics trgng xuat khau cua khu vuc nay trong gia trj
" Georges Pineau, (2010), The global use of the xuit khau toan cau vin Idn hon My gan 7% va
dollar and Euro, European Commission, tai lieu duac
lly
tu
trang
web Nhat Ban 12%.
http://www.ecb.int/pub/html/index.en.html

^ongl/Uai

trin thi trtt^ng tai

ehinh...

55

Toe dO tang tru&ng kinh te cua My, Eurozone va Nhat

Ban tir 2007 - 2010

8"

1
S -1
9"

S
i -2

^Eiiraarea
USA
-Japan

2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3

Ngudn: Annual report on the euro area, 2010.

Gia tri xuat khau cua cac nude
trong gia tri xuat khau toan cau
(khong bao gom thuotig mai noi
Khoi Eurozone)

Gia tri xuat khau cua cac nvdc

trong gia tri xuat khau toan cau
(bao gom thvo'ng mai noi Khoi
Eurozone)

17%

eurozone

I us'

us
57%

eurozone

I japan

japan

67%
I rest of the
world

rest of the
world

Ngudn: ECB.
Co thi thay ring do md ciia Idn ciia
Eurozone la mot trong nhiing ylu t l giiip cho
ding EUR dugc sii dung rgng rai trong thuomg
mai quIc tl. Yeu ciu su dung ding EUR trong
xuat nhap khau se din din mot loat cac hoat
dong tren cac thi trudng tai chinh ma mua ban
ngoai hoi va hoat dgng tai chinh phai sinh la
dien hinh. Do do, cac ngan hang cung se cin
d\f trii dong EUR trong du tr& ngoai hIi cua
minh dl can thiep vao thi trudng khi cin thilt.
Day la ly do lam cho ddng EUR dugc sii dung
ngay mot rgng rai hon.

trudng am ke tir cuoi nam 2008 cho den quy

IV 2009 va nam 2010 nen kinh te ciia cac nude
tang trudng duong trd lai. Trong do. My la
nude cd miic tang trudng trd lai nhanh va In
dinh nhat. Eurozone tang trudng tir tir va cham
hoi phuc hom so vdi My, con miirc tang trudng
ciia Nhat Ban giao dgng manh. D I thi cho thay
trong thdi gian nay khong co khu vuc nao co
miic do tang trudng nii bat. Dilu do cung
ding nghTa vdi viec Eurozone kho long vugt
My vl quy mo kinh tl trong ngin han va dong
USD vin se giii vumg vi the hang dau ciia no
trong nhung nam tilp theo.

Do anh hudng cua cuoc khiing hoang kinh

te toan ciu, tat ca cac nude deu co miic tang

Su dn dinh miic gid chung (Igm phdt)

ciia Eurozone

56

NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N07 (130).2011

*

>

vao nam 2009, nhung sau do da In dinh trd lai

vao nam 2010.

Mot dong tien cd the vuon den vi the

dong tiln quoc te tuc la dugc sir dung rgng rai
trong viec tich luy gia tri va su dung lam
phuong tien thanh toan thi nd phai co dugc
niem tin ciia ngudi nude ngoai ve tinh on dinh
cua no. Do do, su In dinh gia ca ciia Eurozone
dong mot vai tro dang ke trong viec quyet dinh
vi the ciia dong EUR.
Ke tir nam 2000 den nay, lam phat ciia
Eurozone luon giir d miic thip va on dinh, lam
phat trong giai doan tir nam 2000 den 2007
xoay quanh mire 2%. Do anh hudng ciia cuoc
khiing hoang tai chinh toan cau, lam phat ciia
khu vuc nay da dao dgng manh hon trudc, len
miic 4% vao nam 2008 va xuong miic dudi 0%

So vdi cac nude, Eurozone van la noi co

gia ca dn dinh nhat ca trudc va sau khung
hoang. Giai doan tir 2000 - 2007, chenh lech
giiia miic gia thap nhat va cao nhat d khu vuc
nay chi la 0,5% trong khi d My la hon 2% va d
Nhat khoang 1,5%. Giai doan tir 2008 - 2010,
mire dao dgng d My da len tdi 8% (gan 6%
nam 2008 va -2% nam 2009) va d Nhat Ban
cung la hon 4%.
Nhu vay, sir In dinh cua gia ca d cac
nude thanh vien giiip cho ddng EUR dugc tin
tudng sii dung rgng rai tren the gidi.

Gia ca tieu diing cua cac nvdc

United Kingdom

-Japan

/ijfc

6
4

- -f \ -mr - ^ \

-^KT

2000

2002

2004

-*- ^^i^y-W

I
"*

yf->..L

2006

2008

2010

Ngudn: World Statistics Day Contributions of central bank statistics in a global context, 2010.
Su phdt trien vd hgp nhat thi trudng
tdi chinh EU
Yeu to gop phan vao viec quyet dinh vi
the quoc te ciia mot ddng tien la sir phat trien
cua cac thi trudng tai chinh tai nude phat hanh
dong tien dd. Cac thi trudng tai chinh cua chau
Au neu on dinh, phat trien va hgp tac tot vdi
nhau se khien cho dong EUR nang cao dugc vi
the ciia minh. Hien nay, thi trudng tai chinh
Eurozone co tinh thanh khoan cao, dac biet la
cac trai phieu chinh phii bing dong EUR.

Cd khoang 74% cac ngan hang trung

uong xac nhan tinh thanh khoan cao cua trai
phieu dinh danh bing ddng EUR. Cac trai
phieu chinh phu dinh danh bing ding EUR co
tinh Idng cao thii hai sau cac trai phieu dinh
danh bing USD.
Ben canh dd, chi phi giao dich tren cac thi
trudng tai chinh khu vuc ciing giam dang ke. Chi
phi giao dich ngoai hdi gin nhu bing khdng. Chi
phi giao dich cd phieu va trai philu da giam lan
lugt 17% va 14% so vdi trudc day^".
' ECB (2008,2009,2010), sdd.

^e*tg

Sdtdl

trin thi tnOttg

tai

ehitih...

57

Tinh thanh khoan cua cac trai phieu chinh phu dinh danh bing cac dong tien
Tinh thanh khoan cua cac trai phieu chinh phii djnh danh
bang cac dong tien

100

50

Euzo

48

I I

Pound sterling Japanese Y e n

Aiistzalian
AcSiAx

Canadian
dollar

11

KZ dollar

S\%cdisli krona Danisli krone

Ngudn: RBS Reserve Management Trends 2008.

Mac dil thi trudng tai chinh Eurozone da
timg bude phat triln nhung hien nay thi trudng
nay van ehua phat trien sau rgng nhu thi
trudng tai chinh Hoa Ky. Thi trudng co philu
ciia khu vuc nay mdi chi bing mot nira cua thi
trudng CO philu d My^^. Ben canh do, tinh
thilu hgp nhat cua cac thi trudng d Eurozone
da lam giam miic do hap din ciia cac co phieu
dinh danh bing EUR so vdi USD. Cac chinh
phii d chau Au van dgc lap trong viec phat
hanh trai phieu va tu quylt dinh miic lai suat
din den lai suit trai philu chinh phu d cac
nude trong khu virc co sir chenh lech.
Chinh sir khac nhau vl he thing luat
phap, he thong thanh toan va he thing thul...
ciia cac quIc gia thanh vien da can trd sir phat
triln va hgp nhit thi trudng tai chinh toan khu
vuc. K I tir nam 1999, khu vuc nay da thilt lap
mot chuong trinh nhim hgp nhat thi trudng tai
chinh CO ten ggi la FSAP, nhung dh hoan thanh
chuong trinh nay cin cd mot thdi gian dai.
Lich sir cua dong tiin
Lich sii cua dong tiln cung la mot trong
nhirng yeu to anh hudng din vi thi quoc te cua
mOt dong tiln. Trong Hch sii, ding USD da
timg thay thi vi tri hang diu ciia Bang Anh
tren cac thi trudng toan ciu, nhung thdi ky sau
25

http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics

do Bang Anh van dugc sii dung kha rong rai.

Ly do la trong mot thdi gian dai, ngudi ta da
hinh thanh thdi quen sir dung Bang Anh trong
cac giao dich kinh tl. Thuc tl la nam 2004, gia
tri cua Bang Anh trong cac giao dich ngoai hoi
chiem den 16,9% trong ting gia tri giao dich
toan cau

26

Mat khac, kl tir sau Chiln tranh thi gidi

thir Hai, ngay cang co nhieu ngudi sii dung
dong USD. Dilu nay din din cac giao dich
bing USD trd nen de dang va it chi phi hom.
Cang CO nhilu nude sii dung ding USD trong
giao dich quoc tl thi chi phi giao dich bang
USD cang thip. Do do, mgt nude se do du
trong viec ngimg sir dung dong USD trong cac
giao dich quoc te ciia minh du co mong muon
su dung mot ding tiln Idiac, trir khi biet chac
chin ring cac quIc gia khac cung lam tuomg
tu. Day la ly do khiln cho vi tri cua ding USD
kho CO thi bi thay thi. Thdi gian kl tir khi
ding EUR dugc dua vao su dung chinh thiic
trong ITnh vuc tiln mat din nay ehua phai la
mot khoang thdi gian dai, trong khi USD da
chiem vi the dgc ton tir gin 60 nam nay. Do
do, EUR vin ehua thi trd thanh thach thiic Idn
dii vdi vi thi cua USD.

2*http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics

58

NGHIEN CCrU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N07 (1301.2011

Tinh hinh sir dyng dong USD & cac khu vifc tren the gidi (%)

U i . dollar invoicing sharein country exports

U.S. dollar invoicing share in country imports

|asashafetftiAaiin|iorts|

i Malaysia
Indonesia *PalJstai
I
Ukraine

Indonesia

, A * Thailand
M Korea

4j3Thailand
\M!t South

Australia*
Israel
&eece
U|iaiia ^ ^ h

aeece
iFrance

MAfrica

Netherlands
*frante*spj,in ^
Latvia
f Romania
le^ium ^IwCyiinE
,
. . ^ 1
Pojanl %oatia,
*5*embo.rg
\ ^
F
'
irk Sovakia

Turkey

iapai
" ^ i C y p m s W a UK j , ^
Estoiia Poland ,
CzechRepubiicij (Hungary FVIIM
Deimark
l&M^a
Sovenla

Estonb

Ngudn: The global use of the Dollar and Euro, 2010.

Co thi thiy cac nude thugc khu vuc EU

Nhu vay, dong EUR vin con kem lgi the

sii dung dong USD rat han che trong cac giao

so vdi ddng USD d mot vai ylu td nhu quy mo

dich ciia minh, trong khi cac nude d Idiu vuc

kinh t l cua Eurozone cdn kem so vdi My, thi

nhu chau A, Trung Ddng va My Latinh lai chu

trudng tai chinh d Eurozone ehua phat trien va

yeu sii dung dong USD. Diln hinh nhu Algeria

thilu tinh hgp nhat so vdi thi trudng tai chinh

su dung dong USD trong gan nhu hau hit cac

d My, thdi gian luu hanh cua EUR ehua lau.

hgp dong xuat khau, hay hon 80% hgp dong

Dilu nay giai thich tai sao EUR chi diing vi tri

nhap khiu cua Indonesia dugc thanh toan bing

thii hai sau USD.

USD. Dieu nay la do mot so nguyen nhan sau:

3. Vi the cua dong EUR trong tumig lai

Thir nhdt, a mot s i nude san phim xuat khau

san pham dugc dinh gia

Hien nay, ddng EUR dang phai doi mat

theo USD (trudng hgp Algeria - nude cung

vdi thach thiic rat Idn tir cude khiing hoang ng

cap dau thii 7 thi gidi); Thir hai, thdi quen su

cdng chau Au. Sau khung hoang kinh te toan

dung USD lam ding tiln chinh ffong thanh

cau nam 2008, nhieu nude thanh vien trong

toan quIc te (Han Quoc); Thii ba, miirc do ddla

khu vuc dong EUR da vi pham_ nghiem trgng

hoa cao trong mot so nIn kinh tl.

thoa thuan Masstricht - mot thda thuan vdi cac

chii yeu la dau md

dilu kien dam bao cho sir tin tai va on dinh

ciia ddng EUR.

^Deng^/ltU

trin thi trtOng

tai

ehinh...

59

Tham hut ngan sach va no- cong cua cac nude Eurozone 2001 - 2009
10,0

Budget deficit % Of GDP

10,0

PuWicdcbti^iofGDP

5,0

130
110

\ . Ireland

90

0.0

70

5,0

50
10,0
15,0 I

30
Greece ..jgQ
I

JQ

10

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Oa

Ngudn: European Commission.

Theo thoa thuan Masstricht, cac nude gia

khong con kha nang tra ng. Vi the cua dong

nhap khIi Eurozone phai co miic tham hut

EUR dang phai doi mat vdi thach thiic Idn nhat

ngan sach d miic dudi 3% GDP, nhung ty le

ke tir khi ra ddi, khi ma cuoc khung hoang ng

tham hut ngan sach va ng cong cua mot so

ehua dugc giai quylt diit dilm va co nguy co

nude thanh vien da tang dot biln ke tir nam

lan rong sang cac nude khac cua khu vuc do

2008. Nam 2009, miic tham hut ngan sach ciia

cac nen kinh te trong Khoi co lien quan mat

cac nude Y, B I Dao Nha, Tay Ban Nha, Ailen

thilt vdi nhau va hien tugng vay ng chong

va Hy Lap da dao dgng d muc tir 5% din 15%

cheo giira cac nude trong KhIi. Trudng hgp

GDP, trong dd Hy Lap la nude co miic tham

Tay Ban Nha la mot vi du ro net nhat. Nude

hut ngan sach Idn nhat (15% GDP). Ben canh

nay dang la chii ng Idn nhit ciia Bo Dao Nha.

do, nhilu nude da cd ty le ng cong vugt qua

Viec B I Dao Nha khong thi giai quylt dugc

miic 60% theo thoa thuan Masstricht. Cu the

ng nIn ding nghia vdi viec dat Tay Ban Nha

Hy Lap va Y la nude co ty le ng cong Idn nhit,

vao tinh trang bao dgng. Hien nay, cac nude

d miic 120% GDP, ty le ng cdng d Bo Dao

EU mdi chi dua ra nhiing giai phap mang tinh

Nha la 60% GDP va d Tay Ban Nha la gin

chit tam thdi dl khIng che khiing hoang, tuy

70% GDP (nam 2009).

nhien, cac van de cit loi cua KhIi - nguyen

nhan chinh gay ra khung hoang ehua dugc giai

Tinh den thdi dilm hien nay da cd ba

nude la Hy Lap, Ailen va Bo Dao Nha phai xin
vien tro tir ECB va IMF bdi cac quoc gia nay

quylt triet dk. Dilu nay anh hudng khong it tdi

tuomg lai dai ban ciia dong EUR.

60

NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N07 (130).2011

Trong boi canh tren, ding NDT dugc nhieu

ngudi xem nhu la ddng tien co kha nang thay the
vi tri thir 2 cua EUR nhu la mot bien phap tranh
sir le thugc qua mure vao My. Bdi le, trong thdi
gian gan day, Trung QuIc dang noi len nhu la
mot nIn kinh te co toe do tang trudng cao. Nam
2010, GDP tinh theo ngang gia siic mua ciia
Trung Quoc hon 10 nghin ty USD, ddng gop
13,267% trong GDP toan the gidi, chilm vi tri la
nen kinh tl Idn thir hai tren the gidi. Chinh phu
Trung Quoc ciing dang thuc hien nhirng bude de
dua NDT sir dung rgng rai trong cac quan he
kinh te quoc te. Thiir nhdt, Trung QuIc da ky vdi
nhieu nude tren the gidi ve viec sii dung dong
ban te cua moi nude lam phuong tien thanh toan
thay VI sir dung ddng USD hay mot ngoai te thii
3 khac. Thir hai, nude nay da ky hiep udc hoan
doi tien te vdi nhieu nude tren thi gidi. Ben canh
do, chinh phu nude nay cung thuc hien chuong
trinh thii nghiem sir dung Nhan dan te cho xuat
khau. Ngoai ra, Trung QuIc cung tim each nang
cao vi the cua minh trong IMF. Dau thang
9/2009, Trung QuIc mua trai philu IMF vdi gia
tri tuong duomg 50 ty USD (bing khoang 32 ty
SDR),27
Mac dil phai doi mat vdi thach thiic Idn tir
cuoc khung hoang chau Au, nhung xet nhiing
yeu to quylt dinh vi thi cua mot ddng tiln thi
ddng NDT hoan toan khong cd kha nang thay
thi EUR trong thdi gian tdi, bdi le NDT khong
cd dugc lgi thi nhu EUR. Vl phia ding EUR,
de dong tiln nay cd dugc sir phat triln bin
viing, Eurozone noi rieng va khu vuc EU ndi
^' http://tailieu.vn/xem-tai-lieu/bao-cao-vi-the-dongusd-qua-cac-giai-doan-tac-dong-doi-voi-viet-nam.336826.html

chung can phai dua ra dugc nhirng bien phap

khic phuc dugc nhirng diem yeu ciia Khoi, de
dam bao ring tinh trang tdi te hien nay se
khong tiep dien trong tuong lai. Ngay ca khi
khu vuc nay phat trien on dinh diing quy dao
ciia no, EUR vin can mot sd ylu tl cin thilt
de trd thanh ddi trgng ciia USD, do do vdi tinh
trang hien nay ciia khu vuc chau Au, dong tien
nay khong thi thach thirc vi tri ciia USD trong
tuong lai gan.
Tai lieu tham khao
1. BIS, 2010, Foreign exchange and
derivatives market activity in April 2010.
2. ECB (2008, 2009, 2010), The
international role of the EURO,
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/html/index.en.ht
ml
3. Elias Papaioannou and Richard Portes
(2008), The international role of the euro: a
status report, European Commission.
4. Georges Pineau, (2010), The global use
of the dollar and Euro, European Commission,
tai lieu dugc lay tir trang web
http://www.ecb.int^pub/html/index.en.html
5. Gertrude Tumpel - Gugerell (2009),
presentation The Future of Reserve
Currencies, ECB.
6. Kristin J.Forbes (2010), Underlying
determinants of global currency status.
7. http://tailieu.vn/xem-tai-lieu/bao-caovi-the-dong-usd-qua-cac-giai-doan-tac-dongdoi-voi-viet-nam-.336826.html
8.
http://www.ecb.int/stats/exchange/eurofxrefyht
ml/eurofxref-graph-usd.en.html
9.
http://www.economywatch.com/economicstatistics