SES

Year

Month

demand repair parts large

1972
1972
1972
1972
1972
1972
1972
1972
1972
1972
1972
1972
1973
1973
1973
1973
1973
1973
1973
1973
1973
1973
1973
1973
1974
1974
1974
1974
1974
1974
1974
1974
1974
1974
1974
1974
1975
1975
1975
1975
1975
1975
1975

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

954
765
867
940
913
1014
801
990
712
959
828
965
915
891
991
971
1129
1091
1195
1295
1046
1121
1033
1222
1199
1012
1404
1137
1421
1162
1639
1545
1420
1916
1491
1295
1764
1727
1654
1811
1520
1635
1984

0.1

0.5

0.9

954

954

954

935.1
928.29
929.461
927.8149
936.4334
922.8901
929.6011
907.841
912.9569
904.4612
910.5151
910.9636
908.9672
917.1705
922.5534
943.1981
957.9783
981.6804
1013.012
1016.311
1026.78
1027.402
1046.862
1062.076
1057.068
1091.761
1096.285
1128.757
1132.081
1182.773
1218.996
1239.096
1306.786
1325.208
1322.187
1366.368
1402.431
1427.588
1465.929
1471.337
1487.703

859.5
863.25
901.625
907.3125
960.6563
880.8281
935.4141
823.707
891.3535
859.6768
912.3384
913.6692
902.3346
946.6673
958.8336
1043.917
1067.458
1131.229
1213.115
1129.557
1125.279
1079.139
1150.57
1174.785
1093.392
1248.696
1192.848
1306.924
1234.462
1436.731
1490.866
1455.433
1685.716
1588.358
1441.679
1602.84
1664.92
1659.46
1735.23
1627.615
1631.307

783.9
858.69
931.869
914.8869
1004.089
821.3089
973.1309
738.1131
936.9113
838.8911
952.3891
918.7389
893.7739
981.2774
972.0277
1113.303
1093.23
1184.823
1283.982
1069.798
1115.88
1041.288
1203.929
1199.493
1030.749
1366.675
1159.967
1394.897
1185.29
1593.629
1549.863
1432.986
1867.699
1528.67
1318.367
1719.437
1726.244
1661.224
1796.022
1547.602
1626.26

1975
1975
1975
1975
1975
1976
1976
1976
1976
1976
1976
1976
1976
1976
1976
1976
1976
1977
1977
1977
1977
1977
1977
1977
1977
1977
1977
1977
1977

8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

1898
1853
2015
1709
1667
1625
1562
2121
1783
1474
1657
1746
1763
1517
1457
1388
1501
1227
1342
1666
2091
1629
1451
1727
1736
1952
1420
1345
842

1537.333
1573.399
1601.359
1642.723
1649.351
1651.116
1648.504
1639.854
1687.969
1697.472
1675.125
1673.312
1680.581
1688.823
1671.641
1650.176
1623.959
1611.663
1573.197
1550.077
1561.669
1614.602
1616.042
1599.538
1612.284
1624.656
1657.39
1633.651
1604.786

1807.654
1852.827
1852.913
1933.957
1821.478
1744.239
1684.62
1623.31
1872.155
1827.577
1650.789
1653.894
1699.947
1731.474
1624.237
1540.618
1464.309
1482.655
1354.827
1348.414
1507.207
1799.103
1714.052
1582.526
1654.763
1695.381
1823.691
1621.845
1483.423

1948.226
1903.023
1858.002
1999.3
1738.03
1674.103
1629.91
1568.791
2065.779
1811.278
1507.728
1642.073
1735.607
1760.261
1541.326
1465.433
1395.743
1490.474
1253.347
1333.135
1632.713
2045.171
1670.617
1472.962
1701.596
1732.56
1930.056
1471.006
1357.601

SES

Year

Month

demand repair parts large

2005

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

52.88
52.99
53.87
54.81
53.11
53.23
53.3
52.8
52.17

0.1

0.5

0.9

954

954

954

863.899
782.8961
710.0875
644.3897
585.2738
532.0764
484.1488

503.495
278.6825
166.7463
109.9281
81.57906
67.43953
60.11977

143.091
62.7921
55.60821
53.35982
53.24298
53.2943
52.84943

2006

2007

2008

10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1

52.55
52.57
52
53.74
53.88
54.08
54.01
53.63
53.95
54.16
53.82
53.92
53.99
53.69
53.41
54.92
54.96
55.23
56.42
55.57
55.08
54.79
55.2
56.57
56.56
56.32
56.93

440.9509
402.1108
367.1567
335.641
307.4509
282.0938
259.2925
238.7642
220.2508
203.6207
188.6746
175.1892
163.0623
152.155
142.3085
133.4187
125.5688
118.5079
112.1801
106.6041
101.5007
96.85864
92.65177
88.9066
85.67294
82.76164
80.11748

56.14488
54.34744
53.45872
52.72936
53.23468
53.55734
53.81867
53.91434
53.77217
53.86108
54.01054
53.91527
53.91764
53.95382
53.82191
53.61595
54.26798
54.61399
54.92199
55.671
55.6205
55.35025
55.07012
55.13506
55.85253
56.20627
56.26313

52.23794
52.51879
52.56488
52.05649
53.57165
53.84916
54.05692
54.01469
53.66847
53.92185
54.13618
53.85162
53.91316
53.98232
53.71923
53.44092
54.77209
54.94121
55.20112
56.29811
55.64281
55.13628
54.82463
55.16246
56.42925
56.54692
56.34269

ARRSES
Peramalan

954
916.2
906.36
913.088
913.030525057
978.99600003
963.325602309
975.401772136
888.744268686
936.018569518
889.705188263
931.409366102
926.407031588
914.58368553
945.261759667
947.847280522
949.513206382
1008.44381033
1117.8986726
1245.57047502
1086.20912593
1096.37725518
1075.26204793
1101.39969967
1138.98455092
1076.56609103
1130.21813664
1133.68020173
1281.8472681
1199.15124688
1385.18902071
1491.53823107
1440.0960535
1714.97880236
1547.16768375
1443.33318075
1478.70832266
1562.07628812
1604.96709704
1710.28060516
1595.37781179
1607.88987715

Galat

Galat
pemulusan

-189
-37.8
-49.2
-40.08
33.64
-25.336
-0.088
-20.2864
100.9695 3.964774989
-177.996 -32.42738002
26.6744 -20.60702447
-263.4018 -69.16597401
70.25573 -41.28163294
-108.0186 -54.62902026
75.29481 -28.64425386
-16.40937 -26.19727631
-35.40703 -28.03922736
76.41631 -7.148118997
25.73824 -0.570847131
181.1527 35.77386619
141.4868 56.91645168
186.5562 82.84439928
177.1013 101.6957849
-199.5705 41.44253292
34.79087 40.11220115
-63.37726 19.41430988
146.738 44.87903832
97.6003 55.42329072
-126.9846 18.94172239
327.4339 80.64015971
6.781863 65.86850044
287.3198
110.15876
-119.8473 64.15755438
439.8488 139.2957941
159.811 143.3988312
-71.53823 100.4114187
475.9039 175.5099243
-223.9788 95.61217895
-252.1677 26.05620641
320.6668 84.97832898
248.2917 117.6409986
91.92371 112.4975413
206.0329 131.2046136
-190.2806 66.90756987
39.62219 61.45049354
376.1101 124.3824194

BROWN
Galat
absolut
37.8
40.08
38.792
31.0512
45.03485
71.62708
62.63655
102.7896
96.28282
98.62997
93.96294
78.45222
69.84319
71.15781
62.0739
85.88966
97.00909
114.9185
127.3551
141.7982
120.3967
108.9928
116.5418
112.7535
115.5997
157.9666
127.7296
159.6477
151.6876
209.3198
199.418
173.8421
234.2545
232.1993
236.193
253.0878
252.1285
220.0876
217.2766
211.8774
177.4264
217.1631

nilai
alpha

Pemulusan
Tunggal

954
0.2
916.2
0.2
906.36
0.2
913.088
0.653124
913.0704
0.653321
933.25632
0.088038
906.805056
0.452725 923.4440448
0.328994 881.15523584
0.672889 896.72418867
0.428754 882.97935094
0.553879 899.38348075
0.304846 902.5067846
0.333926 900.20542768
0.40146 918.36434214
0.100454 928.89147372
0.009196 968.91317897
0.41651 993.33054318
0.586713 1033.6644345
0.720897 1085.9315476
0.798522 1077.9452381
0.292264 1086.5561905
0.333167 1075.8449524
0.178125 1105.0759619
0.38509 1123.8607695
0.491544 1101.4886156
0.163856 1161.9908925
0.510489 1156.992714
0.515687 1209.7941712
0.690012 1200.235337
0.422959 1287.9882696
0.665469 1339.3906157
0.719087 1355.5124925
0.577601 1467.609994
0.749228 1472.2879952
0.411768 1436.8303962
0.110317 1502.2643169
0.335766 1547.2114535
0.466591 1568.5691628
0.511149 1617.0553303
0.60386 1597.6442642
0.315784 1605.1154114
0.346344 1680.8923291

1738.15321142
1829.7071044
1844.59501055
1955.20398721
1778.01863749
1748.99073297
1736.99404922
1724.33403245
1831.71754667
1821.54918012
1772.0091278
1745.29357826
1745.52247518
1751.16438581
1684.11225261
1567.88851277
1451.51202846
1487.28693229
1330.01939746
1338.73636098
1566.88823776
1598.14655221
1610.33900866
1544.42187772
1577.35735281
1630.83353244
1775.7021557
1556.05523929
1526.6573914

Peramalan
52.88
52.902
53.0956
53.43848
53.372784
53.2694821944
53.287886164
52.9901140528

159.8468 131.4752932
23.2929 109.8388137
170.405 121.9520489
-246.204 48.32084164
-111.0186 16.45294582
-123.9907 -11.63578994
-174.994 -44.3074418
396.666 43.88724007
-48.71755 25.36628272
-347.5492 -49.21680984
-115.0091 -62.37527344
0.706422 -49.7589344
17.47752 -36.31164256
-234.1644 -75.88219121
-227.1123 -106.1282035
-179.8885 -120.8802653
49.48797 -86.80661797
-260.2869 -121.5026808
11.9806 -94.80602416
327.2636 -10.39209152
524.1118 96.50867923
30.85345 83.37763294
-159.339 34.83430462
182.5781 64.38306815
158.6426 83.23498396
321.1665 130.8212807
-355.7022 33.5165934
-211.0552 -15.39777314
-684.6574 -149.2496968
beta = 0,2

Galat

ARRSES
Galat
pemulusan

205.6999
169.2185
169.4558
184.8054
170.0481
160.8366
163.6681
210.2677
177.9576
211.8759
192.5026
154.1434
126.8102
148.281
164.0473
167.2155
143.67
166.9934
135.9908
174.2454
244.2187
201.5456
193.1043
190.9991
184.5278
211.8555
240.6248
234.7109
324.7002

0.57276 1724.3138633
0.639161 1750.0510906
0.649095 1803.0408725
0.719669 1784.232698
0.261469 1760.7861584
0.096755 1733.6289267
0.072345 1699.3031414
0.270715 1783.6425131
0.208721 1783.5140105
0.142541 1721.6112084
0.232291 1708.6889667
0.324023 1716.1511734
0.322809 1725.5209387
0.286346 1683.816751
0.511746 1638.4534008
0.646937 1588.3627206
0.722901 1570.8901765
0.604208 1502.1121412
0.72759 1470.089713
0.69715 1509.2717704
0.059641 1625.6174163
0.395173 1626.293933
0.413691 1591.2351464
0.180391 1618.3881171
0.337086 1641.9104937
0.45107 1703.928395
0.617502 1647.142716
0.13929 1586.7141728
0.065603 1437.7713382
alpha=0,2

BROWN
Galat
absolut

0.11
0.022
0.022
0.968
0.2112
0.2112
1.7144
0.51184 0.51184
-0.32848
0.343776 0.475168
-0.142784
0.246464 0.408691
0.030518 0.203274761 0.333057
-0.487886 0.065042576 0.364022
-0.820114 -0.11198875 0.455241

nilai
alpha

Pemulusan
Tunggal

954
0.2
773.798
0.2
629.8124
0.2
514.81192
0.2
422.471536
0.723483 348.6232288
0.603057 289.55858304
0.610331 242.20686643
0.178677 204.19949315

52.8435782259
52.7713582917
52.7007454062
52.4066068713
53.2110551417
53.2679789249
53.4946797814
53.7289985283
53.6752438248
53.8085674108
53.9998845785
53.8892368249
53.9036711248
53.9450453418
53.8145356951
53.7219311129
53.8460130349
54.3458034324
54.9217656317
56.0373251528
55.6462122424
55.3008289989
55.1188519818
55.1311506391
55.3847396679
55.9714283334
56.1953362424
56.6924310967

-0.293578 -0.148306645
-0.201358 -0.158916974
-0.700745 -0.267282661
1.333393 0.052852497
0.668945 0.176070969
0.812021 0.303260991
0.51532 0.345672836
-0.098999 0.256738563
0.274756 0.260342086
0.351433 0.278560186
-0.179885 0.186871233
0.030763 0.155649622
0.086329 0.141785472
-0.255045 0.06241931
-0.404536 -0.030971691
1.198069 0.214836424
1.113987 0.394666532
0.884197 0.49257254
1.498234 0.693704905
-0.467325 0.461498894
-0.566212 0.255956666
-0.510829 0.102599533
0.081148 0.09830923
1.438849 0.366417256
1.17526 0.528185872
0.348572 0.492263031
0.734664 0.540743176

0.422908
0.378598
0.443028
0.621101
0.63067
0.66694
0.636616
0.529092
0.478225
0.452867
0.39827
0.324769
0.277081
0.272674
0.299046
0.478851
0.605878
0.661542
0.82888
0.756569
0.718498
0.676964
0.557801
0.734011
0.822261
0.727523
0.728951

0.245999 173.86959452
0.350683 149.60967561
0.419751 130.08774049
0.603309 114.81819239
0.085095 102.63055391
0.279181 92.920443131
0.454705 85.138354505
0.542985 78.836683604
0.485243 73.859346883
0.544392 69.919477507
0.615104 66.699582005
0.469207 64.143665604
0.479263 62.112932483
0.511712 60.428345987
0.228916 59.024676789
0.103568 58.203741431
0.44865 57.554993145
0.651396 57.089994516
0.744583 56.955995613
0.836918 56.67879649
0.609989 56.359037192
0.356239 56.045229754
0.151558 55.876183803
0.176244 56.014947042
0.499199 56.123957634
0.642358 56.163166107
0.676629 56.316532886
0.74181

beta = 0,2

alpha=0,2

BROWN
Pemulusan
Ganda
954
946.44
938.424
933.3568
929.29952
930.09088
925.4337152
925.03578112
916.25967206
912.35257539
906.4779305
905.05904055
904.54858936
903.67995702
906.61683405
911.07176198
922.64004538
936.77814494
956.15540286
982.11063181
1001.2775531
1018.3332806
1029.8356149
1044.8836843
1060.6791014
1068.8410042
1087.4709819
1101.3753283
1123.0590969
1138.4943449
1168.3931298
1202.592627
1233.1766001
1280.0632789
1318.5082221
1342.172657
1374.190989
1408.7950819
1440.7498981
1476.0109845
1500.3376404
1521.2931946
1553.2130215

885.96
874.296
892.8192
896.8413
936.4218
888.1764
921.8523
846.0508
881.0958
859.4808
893.7079
900.465
896.7309
930.1119
946.7112
1015.186
1049.883
1111.173
1189.752
1154.613
1154.779
1121.854
1165.268
1187.042
1134.136
1236.511
1212.61
1296.529
1261.976
1407.583
1476.189
1477.848
1655.157
1626.068
1531.488
1630.338
1685.628
1696.388
1758.1
1694.951
1688.938
1808.572

-7.56
-8.016
-5.0672
-4.05728
0.79136
-4.657165
-0.397934
-8.776109
-3.907097
-5.874645
-1.41889
-0.510451
-0.868632
2.936877
4.454928
11.56828
14.1381
19.37726
25.95523
19.16692
17.05573
11.50233
15.04807
15.79542
8.161903
18.62998
13.90435
21.68377
15.43525
29.89878
34.1995
30.58397
46.88668
38.44494
23.66443
32.01833
34.60409
31.95482
35.26109
24.32666
20.95555
31.91983

Ramalan
m=1

878.4
866.28
887.752
892.784
937.2131
883.5192
921.4544
837.2747
877.1887
853.6061
892.289
899.9545
895.8623
933.0487
951.1661
1026.755
1064.021
1130.551
1215.708
1173.78
1171.835
1133.357
1180.316
1202.838
1142.298
1255.141
1226.514
1318.213
1277.412
1437.482
1510.388
1508.432
1702.043
1664.513
1555.153
1662.356
1720.232
1728.343
1793.361
1719.278
1709.893

1587.4331899
1619.95677
1656.5735905
1682.105412
1697.8415613
1704.9990344
1703.8598558
1719.8163872
1732.5559119
1730.3669712
1726.0313703
1724.0553309
1724.3484525
1716.2421122
1700.6843699
1678.22004
1656.7540673
1625.8256821
1594.6784883
1577.5971447
1587.201199
1595.0197458
1594.2628259
1599.0878842
1607.6524061
1626.9076039
1630.9546263
1622.1065356
1585.2394961

1861.195
1880.145
1949.508
1886.36
1823.731
1762.259
1694.746
1847.469
1834.472
1712.855
1691.347
1708.247
1726.693
1651.391
1576.222
1498.505
1485.026
1378.399
1345.501
1440.946
1664.034
1657.568
1588.207
1637.688
1676.169
1780.949
1663.331
1551.322
1290.303

BROWN
Pemulusan
a
Ganda
954
917.9596
860.33016
791.226512
717.4755168
643.7050592
572.87576397
506.74198446
446.2334862

629.6364
399.2946
238.3973
127.4676
53.5414
6.241402
-22.32825
-37.8345

34.22017
32.52358
36.61682
25.53182
15.73615
7.157473
-1.139179
15.95653
12.73952
-2.188941
-4.335601
-1.976039
0.293122
-8.10634
-15.55774
-22.46433
-21.46597
-30.92839
-31.14719
-17.08134
9.604054
7.818547
-0.75692
4.825058
8.564522
19.2552
4.047022
-8.848091
-36.86704

b
-36.0404
-57.62944
-69.10365
-73.751
-73.77046
-70.8293
-66.13378
-60.5085

1840.491
1895.415
1912.669
1986.125
1911.892
1839.467
1769.416
1693.607
1863.425
1847.212
1710.667
1687.011
1706.271
1726.987
1643.285
1560.665
1476.041
1463.56
1347.47
1314.354
1423.865
1673.638
1665.387
1587.451
1642.513
1684.733
1800.204
1667.378
1542.474
1253.436

Ramalan
m=1

593.596
341.6652
169.2937
53.71656
-20.22906
-64.58789
-88.46203

391.76070786
343.33050141
300.68194923
263.50919786
231.33346907
203.65086388
179.94836201
159.72602633
142.55269044
128.02604785
115.76075468
105.43733687
96.77245599
89.503633989
83.407842549
78.367022326
74.20461649
70.781692095
68.016552799
65.749001537
63.871008668
62.305852885
61.019919069
60.018924663
59.239931258
58.624578227
58.162969159

-44.02152
-44.11115
-40.50647
-33.87281
-26.07236
-17.80998
-9.671653
-2.052659
5.166003
11.81291
17.63841
22.84999
27.45341
31.35306
34.64151
38.04046
40.90537
43.3983
45.89544
47.60859
48.84707
49.78461
50.73245
52.01097
53.00798
53.70175
54.4701

-54.47278
-48.43021
-42.64855
-37.17275
-32.17573
-27.68261
-23.7025
-20.22234
-17.17334
-14.52664
-12.26529
-10.32342
-8.664881
-7.268822
-6.095791
-5.04082
-4.162406
-3.422924
-2.765139
-2.267551
-1.877993
-1.565156
-1.285934
-1.000994
-0.778993
-0.615353
-0.461609

-98.343
-98.4943
-92.54136
-83.15502
-71.04556
-58.24809
-45.49258
-33.37415
-22.27499
-12.00733
-2.713735
5.373116
12.52658
18.78853
24.08424
28.54572
32.99964
36.74296
39.97537
43.1303
45.34104
46.96907
48.21945
49.44651
51.00998
52.22899
53.0864

No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41

Nilai Aktual

954
765
867
940
913
1014
801
990
712
959
828
965
915
891
991
971
1129
1091
1195
1295
1046
1121
1033
1222
1199
1012
1404
1137
1421
1162
1639
1545
1420
1916
1491
1295
1764
1727
1654
1811
1520

0.2

954

ei

ei^2

-189
35721
935.1
-68.1
4637.61
928.29
11.71
137.1241
929.461 -16.461 270.964521
927.8149 86.1851 7427.87146
936.4334 -135.43341 18342.2085
922.8901 67.109931 4503.74284
929.6011 -217.60106 47350.2222
907.841 51.1590441 2617.24779
912.9569 -84.95686 7217.66811
904.4612 60.5388257 3664.94942
910.5151 4.48494316 20.1147151
910.9636 -19.963551 398.543375
908.9672 82.032804 6729.38092
917.1705 53.8295236 2897.61761
922.5534 206.446571 42620.1868
943.1981 147.801914 21845.4058
957.9783 237.021723 56179.297
981.6804 313.31955 98169.1407
1013.012 32.9875954 1088.18145
1016.311 104.688836 10959.7523
1026.78 6.21995225 38.687806
1027.402 194.597957 37868.3649
1046.862 152.138161 23146.0201
1062.076 -50.075655 2507.5712
1057.068 346.931911 120361.751
1091.761 45.2387196 2046.54175
1096.285 324.714848 105439.732
1128.757 33.2433629 1105.12118
1132.081 506.919027 256966.9
1182.773 362.227124 131208.489
1218.996 201.004412 40402.7735
1239.096 676.90397 458198.985
1306.786 184.213573 33934.6406
1325.208 -30.207784 912.510214
1322.187 441.812994 195198.722
1366.368 360.631695 130055.219
1402.431 251.568525 63286.723
1427.588 383.411673 147004.511
1465.929 54.0705056 2923.61958

0.5

954

SES
ei

ei^2

-189
35721
859.5
7.5
56.25
863.25
76.75
5890.5625
901.625 11.375 129.390625
907.3125 106.6875 11382.2227
960.6563 -159.65625 25490.1182
880.8281 109.171875 11918.4983
935.4141 -223.41406 49913.8433
823.707 135.292969 18304.1874
891.3535 -63.353516 4013.66794
859.6768 105.323242 11092.9853
912.3384 2.66162109 7.08422685
913.6692 -22.669189 513.89215
902.3346 88.6654053 7861.55409
946.6673 24.3327026 592.080418
958.8336 170.166351 28956.5871
1043.917 47.0831757 2216.82543
1067.458 127.541588 16266.8566
1131.229 163.770794 26820.8729
1213.115 -167.1146 27927.2906
1129.557 -8.5573015 73.2274093
1125.279 -92.278651 8515.34939
1079.139 142.860675 20409.1724
1150.57 48.4303373 2345.49757
1174.785 -162.78483 26498.9013
1093.392 310.607584 96477.0714
1248.696 -111.69621 12476.0428
1192.848 228.151896 52053.2877
1306.924 -144.92405 21002.9808
1234.462 404.537974 163650.972
1436.731 108.268987 11722.1735
1490.866 -70.865506 5021.92001
1455.433 460.567247 212122.189
1685.716 -194.71638 37914.4673
1588.358 -293.35819 86059.0266
1441.679 322.320906 103890.766
1602.84 124.160453 15415.8181
1664.92 -10.919774 119.241454
1659.46 151.540113 22964.4059
1735.23 -215.22994 46323.9285

42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

1635
1984
1898
1853
2015
1709
1667
1625
1562
2121
1783
1474
1657
1746
1763
1517
1457
1388
1501
1227
1342
1666
2091
1629
1451
1727
1736
1952
1420
1345
MSE

1471.337 163.663455 26785.7265

1487.703 496.29711 246310.821
1537.333 360.667399 130080.972
1573.399 279.600659 78176.5284
1601.359 413.640593 171098.54
1642.723 66.2765336 4392.5789
1649.351 17.6488802 311.482973
1651.116 -26.116008 682.045863
1648.504 -86.504407 7483.01243
1639.854 481.146034 231501.506
1687.969 95.0314303 9030.97275
1697.472 -223.47171 49939.6064
1675.125 -18.124541 328.499003
1673.312 72.6879127 5283.53265
1680.581 82.4191214 6792.91158
1688.823 -171.82279 29523.0714
1671.641 -214.64051 46070.5492
1650.176 -262.17646 68736.4964
1623.959 -122.95881 15118.87
1611.663 -384.66293 147965.572
1573.197 -231.19664 53451.8862
1550.077 115.923024 13438.1476
1561.669 529.330722 280191.013
1614.602 14.3976497 207.292316
1616.042 -165.04212 27238.8998
1599.538 127.462096 16246.586
1612.284 123.715887 15305.6206
1624.656 327.344298 107154.289
1657.39 -237.39013 56354.0747
1633.651 -288.65112 83319.4683
57913.22

1627.615 7.38502831 54.5386431

1631.307 352.692514 124392.01
1807.654 90.3462571 8162.44617
1852.827 0.17312854 0.02997349
1852.913 162.086564 26272.0543
1933.957 -224.95672 50605.5249
1821.478 -154.47836 23863.5634
1744.239 -119.23918 14217.9819
1684.62 -122.61959 15035.5638
1623.31 497.690205 247695.54
1872.155 -89.154897 7948.59574
1827.577 -353.57745 125017.012
1650.789 6.21127564 38.5799451
1653.894 92.1056378 8483.44852
1699.947 63.0528189 3975.65797
1731.474 -214.47359 45998.921
1624.237 -167.2368 27968.1457
1540.618 -152.6184 23292.3753
1464.309 36.6908012 1346.21489
1482.655 -255.6546 65359.2742
1354.827 -12.8273 164.539618
1348.414 317.58635 100861.09
1507.207 583.793175 340814.471
1799.103 -170.10341 28935.1709
1714.052 -263.05171 69196.2002
1582.526 144.474147 20872.7791
1654.763 81.2370734 6599.4621
1695.381 256.618537 65853.0734
1823.691 -403.69073 162966.207
1621.845 -276.84537 76643.3566
41753.8

0.9

954

ei

ei^2

-189
35721
783.9
83.1
6905.61
858.69
81.31
6611.3161
931.869 -18.869 356.039161
914.8869 99.1131 9823.40659
1004.089 -203.08869 41245.016
821.3089 168.691131 28456.6977
973.1309 -261.13089 68189.3401
738.1131 220.886911 48791.0276
936.9113 -108.91131 11861.6732
838.8911 126.108869 15903.4469
952.3891 -37.389113 1397.94578
918.7389 -27.738911 769.447201
893.7739 97.2261089 9452.91625
981.2774 -10.277389 105.624727
972.0277 156.972261 24640.2908
1113.303 -22.302774 497.413723
1093.23 101.769723 10357.0764
1184.823 110.176972 12138.9652
1283.982 -237.9823 56635.5764
1069.798 51.2017697 2621.62122
1115.88 -82.879823 6869.06507
1041.288 180.712018 32656.8333
1203.929 -4.9287982 24.293052
1199.493 -187.49288 35153.58
1030.749 373.250712 139316.094
1366.675 -229.67493 52750.5729
1159.967 261.032507 68137.9698
1394.897 -232.89675 54240.8958
1185.29 453.710325 205853.059
1593.629 -48.628967 2364.77648
1549.863 -129.8629 16864.372
1432.986 483.01371 233302.244
1867.699 -376.69863 141901.857
1528.67 -233.66986 54601.6048
1318.367 445.633014 198588.783
1719.437 7.56330137 57.2035276
1726.244 -72.24367 5219.14784
1661.224 149.775633 22432.7402
1796.022 -276.02244 76188.3856

ARRES

ei

ei^2

BROWN

ei

954
916.2
906.36
913.088
913.0305
978.996
963.3256
975.4018
888.7443
936.0186
889.7052
931.4094
926.407
914.5837
945.2618
947.8473
949.5132
1008.444
1117.899
1245.57
1086.209
1096.377
1075.262
1101.4
1138.985
1076.566
1130.218
1133.68
1281.847
1199.151
1385.189
1491.538
1440.096
1714.979
1547.168
1443.333
1478.708
1562.076
1604.967
1710.281

-189
-49.2
33.64
-0.088
100.9695
-177.996
26.6744
-263.4018
70.25573
-108.0186
75.29481
-16.40937
-35.40703
76.41631
25.73824
181.1527
141.4868
186.5562
177.1013
-199.5705
34.79087
-63.37726
146.738
97.6003
-126.9846
327.4339
6.781863
287.3198
-119.8473
439.8488
159.811
-71.53823
475.9039
-223.9788
-252.1677
320.6668
248.2917
91.92371
206.0329
-190.2806

35721
2420.64
1131.65
0.007744
10194.83
31682.58
711.5235
69380.49
4935.868
11668.01
5669.309
269.2673
1253.658
5839.453
662.457
32816.31
20018.51
34803.21
31364.88
39828.37
1210.405
4016.676
21532.03
9525.819
16125.08
107213
45.99367
82552.67
14363.37
193466.9
25539.55
5117.719
226484.6
50166.5
63588.54
102827.2
61648.76
8449.969
42449.56
36206.71

878.4
866.28
887.752
892.784
937.2131
883.5192
921.4544
837.2747
877.1887
853.6061
892.289
899.9545
895.8623
933.0487
951.1661
1026.755
1064.021
1130.551
1215.708
1173.78
1171.835
1133.357
1180.316
1202.838
1142.298
1255.141
1226.514
1318.213
1277.412
1437.482
1510.388
1508.432
1702.043
1664.513
1555.153
1662.356
1720.232
1728.343
1793.361

-11.4
73.72
25.248
121.216
-136.2131
106.4808
-209.4544
121.7253
-49.18871
111.3939
22.71097
-8.954529
95.13773
37.95127
177.8339
64.2454
130.979
164.4493
-169.7077
-52.77984
-138.8348
88.64338
18.68369
-190.8379
261.7019
-118.1408
194.4856
-156.213
361.5884
107.5178
-90.3881
407.5676
-211.0434
-369.5127
208.8474
64.64402
-66.23192
82.65676
-273.3608

1547.602 87.3977563 7638.36781

1626.26 357.739776 127977.747
1948.226 -50.226022 2522.65333
1903.023 -50.022602 2502.26074
1858.002 156.99774 24648.2903
1999.3 -290.30023 84274.2212
1738.03 -71.030023 5045.26411
1674.103 -49.103002 2411.10483
1629.91 -67.9103 4611.80888
1568.791 552.20897 304934.747
2065.779 -282.7791 79964.0211
1811.278 -337.27791 113756.389
1507.728 149.272209 22282.1924
1642.073 103.927221 10800.8672
1735.607 27.3927221 750.361223
1760.261 -243.26073 59175.7817
1541.326 -84.326073 7110.88655
1465.433 -77.432607 5995.80867
1395.743 105.256739 11078.9812
1490.474 -263.47433 69418.7205
1253.347 88.6525674 7859.27771
1333.135 332.865257 110799.279
1632.713 458.286526 210026.54
2045.171 -416.17135 173198.59
1670.617 -219.61713 48231.6859
1472.962 254.038287 64535.451
1701.596 34.4038287 1183.62343
1732.56 219.440383 48154.0816
1930.056 -510.05596 260157.084
1471.006 -126.0056 15877.4103
51798.98

1595.378
1607.89
1738.153
1829.707
1844.595
1955.204
1778.019
1748.991
1736.994
1724.334
1831.718
1821.549
1772.009
1745.294
1745.522
1751.164
1684.112
1567.889
1451.512
1487.287
1330.019
1338.736
1566.888
1598.147
1610.339
1544.422
1577.357
1630.834
1775.702
1556.055

39.62219
376.1101
159.8468
23.2929
170.405
-246.204
-111.0186
-123.9907
-174.994
396.666
-48.71755
-347.5492
-115.0091
0.706422
17.47752
-234.1644
-227.1123
-179.8885
49.48797
-260.2869
11.9806
327.2636
524.1118
30.85345
-159.339
182.5781
158.6426
321.1665
-355.7022
-211.0552

1569.918
141458.8
25551
542.559
29037.86
60616.4
12325.14
15373.7
30622.92
157343.9
2373.399
120790.4
13227.1
0.499032
305.4639
54832.96
51579.98
32359.88
2449.059
67749.29
143.5348
107101.5
274693.1
951.9352
25388.92
33334.77
25167.49
103147.9
126524
44544.31
42485.87

1719.278
1709.893
1840.491
1895.415
1912.669
1986.125
1911.892
1839.467
1769.416
1693.607
1863.425
1847.212
1710.667
1687.011
1706.271
1726.987
1643.285
1560.665
1476.041
1463.56
1347.47
1314.354
1423.865
1673.638
1665.387
1587.451
1642.513
1684.733
1800.204
1667.378

-84.27754
274.1068
57.50854
-42.41471
102.331
-277.125
-244.8918
-214.4669
-207.4163
427.3928
-80.42517
-373.2116
-53.6665
58.98904
56.72902
-209.9865
-186.285
-172.6647
24.95893
-236.5603
-5.470215
351.6463
667.1349
-44.63769
-214.3867
139.5495
93.48659
267.2669
-380.2044
-322.3778

ei^2

129.96
5434.638
637.4615
14693.32
18554.01
11338.15
43871.13
14817.05
2419.529
12408.6
515.7881
80.18358
9051.188
1440.299
31624.89
4127.472
17155.49
27043.56
28800.7
2785.712
19275.11
7857.648
349.0803
36419.09
68487.87
13957.24
37824.63
24402.51
130746.2
11560.08
8170.009
166111.4
44539.31
136539.6
43617.25
4178.85
4386.667
6832.139
74726.11

7102.704
75134.55
3307.232
1799.007
10471.64
76798.25
59972
45996.05
43021.52
182664.6
6468.208
139286.9
2880.094
3479.707
3218.182
44094.35
34702.12
29813.09
622.9481
55960.78
29.92325
123655.1
445069
1992.523
45961.64
19474.05
8739.743
71431.59
144555.4
103927.5
41122

No

Nilai Aktual

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43

954
765
867
940
913
1014
801
990
712
959
828
965
915
891
991
971
1129
1091
1195
1295
1046
1121
1033
1222
1199
1012
1404
1137
1421
1162
1639
1545
1420
1916
1491
1295
1764
1727
1654
1811
1520
1635
1984

SES
0.2

ei

|Pei |

0.5

ei

|Pei|

954
935.1
928.29
929.461
927.8149
936.4334
922.8901
929.6011
907.841
912.9569
904.4612
910.5151
910.9636
908.9672
917.1705
922.5534
943.1981
957.9783
981.6804
1013.012
1016.311
1026.78
1027.402
1046.862
1062.076
1057.068
1091.761
1096.285
1128.757
1132.081
1182.773
1218.996
1239.096
1306.786
1325.208
1322.187
1366.368
1402.431
1427.588
1465.929
1471.337
1487.703

-189
-68.1
11.71
-16.461
86.1851
-135.4334
67.10993
-217.6011
51.15904
-84.95686
60.53883
4.484943
-19.96355
82.0328
53.82952
206.4466
147.8019
237.0217
313.3196
32.9876
104.6888
6.219952
194.598
152.1382
-50.07565
346.9319
45.23872
324.7148
33.24336
506.919
362.2271
201.0044
676.904
184.2136
-30.20778
441.813
360.6317
251.5685
383.4117
54.07051
163.6635
496.2971

24.70588
7.854671
1.245745
1.802957
8.499517
16.90804
6.778781
30.56195
5.334624
10.26049
6.273453
0.490158
2.240578
8.27778
5.54372
18.28579
13.54738
19.83445
24.19456
3.15369
9.338879
0.602125
15.92455
12.68875
4.948187
24.71025
3.978779
22.85115
2.860875
30.92856
23.44512
14.15524
35.32902
12.35504
2.332647
25.04609
20.88197
15.20971
21.17127
3.55727
10.01
25.01498

954
859.5
863.25
901.625
907.3125
960.6563
880.8281
935.4141
823.707
891.3535
859.6768
912.3384
913.6692
902.3346
946.6673
958.8336
1043.917
1067.458
1131.229
1213.115
1129.557
1125.279
1079.139
1150.57
1174.785
1093.392
1248.696
1192.848
1306.924
1234.462
1436.731
1490.866
1455.433
1685.716
1588.358
1441.679
1602.84
1664.92
1659.46
1735.23
1627.615
1631.307

-189
7.5
76.75
11.375
106.6875
-159.6563
109.1719
-223.4141
135.293
-63.35352
105.3232
2.661621
-22.66919
88.66541
24.3327
170.1664
47.08318
127.5416
163.7708
-167.1146
-8.557302
-92.27865
142.8607
48.43034
-162.7848
310.6076
-111.6962
228.1519
-144.9241
404.538
108.269
-70.86551
460.5672
-194.7164
-293.3582
322.3209
124.1605
-10.91977
151.5401
-215.2299
7.385028
352.6925

24.70588
0.865052
8.164894
1.245893
10.52145
19.93212
11.02746
31.37838
14.10771
7.651391
10.91433
0.290888
2.544241
8.947064
2.505943
15.07231
4.315598
10.67294
12.64639
15.97654
0.763363
8.933074
11.69073
4.039227
16.08546
22.12305
9.823765
16.05573
12.47195
24.682
7.007701
4.990529
24.03796
13.05945
22.65314
18.27216
7.189372
0.660204
8.367759
14.15986
0.451684
17.77684

44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
MAPE

1898
1853
2015
1709
1667
1625
1562
2121
1783
1474
1657
1746
1763
1517
1457
1388
1501
1227
1342
1666
2091
1629
1451
1727
1736
1952
1420
1345

1537.333
1573.399
1601.359
1642.723
1649.351
1651.116
1648.504
1639.854
1687.969
1697.472
1675.125
1673.312
1680.581
1688.823
1671.641
1650.176
1623.959
1611.663
1573.197
1550.077
1561.669
1614.602
1616.042
1599.538
1612.284
1624.656
1657.39
1633.651

360.6674
279.6007
413.6406
66.27653
17.64888
-26.11601
-86.50441
481.146
95.03143
-223.4717
-18.12454
72.68791
82.41912
-171.8228
-214.6405
-262.1765
-122.9588
-384.6629
-231.1966
115.923
529.3307
14.39765
-165.0421
127.4621
123.7159
327.3443
-237.3901
-288.6511

19.0025
15.08908
20.52807
3.878089
1.058721
1.607139
5.538054
22.68487
5.329861
15.1609
1.093817
4.163111
4.674936
11.32649
14.73168
18.88879
8.191793
31.34987
17.22777
6.958165
25.31472
0.883834
11.37437
7.38055
7.126491
16.76969
16.71761
21.46105
12.69495

1807.654
1852.827
1852.913
1933.957
1821.478
1744.239
1684.62
1623.31
1872.155
1827.577
1650.789
1653.894
1699.947
1731.474
1624.237
1540.618
1464.309
1482.655
1354.827
1348.414
1507.207
1799.103
1714.052
1582.526
1654.763
1695.381
1823.691
1621.845

90.34626
0.173129
162.0866
-224.9567
-154.4784
-119.2392
-122.6196
497.6902
-89.1549
-353.5774
6.211276
92.10564
63.05282
-214.4736
-167.2368
-152.6184
36.6908
-255.6546
-12.8273
317.5864
583.7932
-170.1034
-263.0517
144.4741
81.23707
256.6185
-403.6907
-276.8454

4.760077
0.009343
8.043998
13.16306
9.266848
7.337796
7.850166
23.46488
5.000275
23.98762
0.374851
5.275237
3.57645
14.13801
11.47816
10.99556
2.444424
20.83575
0.955835
19.06281
27.91933
10.4422
18.12899
8.365614
4.679555
13.14644
28.42892
20.5833
11.46424

0.9

ei

|Pei|

954
783.9
858.69
931.869
914.8869
1004.089
821.3089
973.1309
738.1131
936.9113
838.8911
952.3891
918.7389
893.7739
981.2774
972.0277
1113.303
1093.23
1184.823
1283.982
1069.798
1115.88
1041.288
1203.929
1199.493
1030.749
1366.675
1159.967
1394.897
1185.29
1593.629
1549.863
1432.986
1867.699
1528.67
1318.367
1719.437
1726.244
1661.224
1796.022
1547.602
1626.26

-189
83.1
81.31
-18.869
99.1131
-203.0887
168.6911
-261.1309
220.8869
-108.9113
126.1089
-37.38911
-27.73891
97.22611
-10.27739
156.9723
-22.30277
101.7697
110.177
-237.9823
51.20177
-82.87982
180.712
-4.928798
-187.4929
373.2507
-229.6749
261.0325
-232.8967
453.7103
-48.62897
-129.8629
483.0137
-376.6986
-233.6699
445.633
7.563301
-72.24367
149.7756
-276.0224
87.39776
357.7398

24.70588
9.584775
8.65
2.066703
9.774467
25.35439
17.03951
36.67569
23.03305
13.15354
13.06828
4.086242
3.113234
9.810909
1.058433
13.90365
2.044251
8.516295
8.507874
22.75165
4.567508
8.023216
14.78822
0.411076
18.52696
26.58481
20.20008
18.36963
20.04275
27.68214
3.147506
9.145274
25.20948
25.26483
18.044
25.26264
0.437944
4.367816
8.270328
18.15937
5.345429
18.03124

ARRES

ei

|Pei|

BROWN

ei

954
916.2
906.36
913.088
913.0305
978.996
963.3256
975.4018
888.7443
936.0186
889.7052
931.4094
926.407
914.5837
945.2618
947.8473
949.5132
1008.444
1117.899
1245.57
1086.209
1096.377
1075.262
1101.4
1138.985
1076.566
1130.218
1133.68
1281.847
1199.151
1385.189
1491.538
1440.096
1714.979
1547.168
1443.333
1478.708
1562.076
1604.967
1710.281
1595.378
1607.89

-189
-49.2
33.64
-0.088
100.9695
-177.996
26.6744
-263.4018
70.25573
-108.0186
75.29481
-16.40937
-35.40703
76.41631
25.73824
181.1527
141.4868
186.5562
177.1013
-199.5705
34.79087
-63.37726
146.738
97.6003
-126.9846
327.4339
6.781863
287.3198
-119.8473
439.8488
159.811
-71.53823
475.9039
-223.9788
-252.1677
320.6668
248.2917
91.92371
206.0329
-190.2806
39.62219
376.1101

24.70588
5.67474
3.578723
0.009639
9.957542
22.22172
2.694384
36.99463
7.325937
13.04572
7.802571
1.793373
3.973853
7.711031
2.650694
16.04541
12.96854
15.6114
13.67578
19.0794
3.103557
6.135262
12.00802
8.140142
12.54788
23.3215
0.59647
20.21955
10.31388
26.83641
10.34375
5.037904
24.83841
15.02205
19.47241
18.17839
14.37705
5.557661
11.37675
12.51846
2.423375
18.95716

878.4
866.28
887.752
892.784
937.2131
883.5192
921.4544
837.2747
877.1887
853.6061
892.289
899.9545
895.8623
933.0487
951.1661
1026.755
1064.021
1130.551
1215.708
1173.78
1171.835
1133.357
1180.316
1202.838
1142.298
1255.141
1226.514
1318.213
1277.412
1437.482
1510.388
1508.432
1702.043
1664.513
1555.153
1662.356
1720.232
1728.343
1793.361
1719.278
1709.893

-11.4
73.72
25.248
121.216
-136.2131
106.4808
-209.4544
121.7253
-49.18871
111.3939
22.71097
-8.954529
95.13773
37.95127
177.8339
64.2454
130.979
164.4493
-169.7077
-52.77984
-138.8348
88.64338
18.68369
-190.8379
261.7019
-118.1408
194.4856
-156.213
361.5884
107.5178
-90.3881
407.5676
-211.0434
-369.5127
208.8474
64.64402
-66.23192
82.65676
-273.3608
-84.27754
274.1068

1948.226
1903.023
1858.002
1999.3
1738.03
1674.103
1629.91
1568.791
2065.779
1811.278
1507.728
1642.073
1735.607
1760.261
1541.326
1465.433
1395.743
1490.474
1253.347
1333.135
1632.713
2045.171
1670.617
1472.962
1701.596
1732.56
1930.056
1471.006

-50.22602
-50.0226
156.9977
-290.3002
-71.03002
-49.103
-67.9103
552.209
-282.7791
-337.2779
149.2722
103.9272
27.39272
-243.2607
-84.32607
-77.43261
105.2567
-263.4743
88.65257
332.8653
458.2865
-416.1713
-219.6171
254.0383
34.40383
219.4404
-510.056
-126.0056

2.64626
2.699547
7.791451
16.98656
4.260949
3.021723
4.34765
26.03531
15.85974
22.88181
9.008582
5.952304
1.553756
16.03564
5.787651
5.578718
7.012441
21.47305
6.606004
19.97991
21.9171
25.54766
15.13557
14.7098
1.981787
11.24182
35.91943
9.368446
13.11603

1738.153
1829.707
1844.595
1955.204
1778.019
1748.991
1736.994
1724.334
1831.718
1821.549
1772.009
1745.294
1745.522
1751.164
1684.112
1567.889
1451.512
1487.287
1330.019
1338.736
1566.888
1598.147
1610.339
1544.422
1577.357
1630.834
1775.702
1556.055

159.8468
23.2929
170.405
-246.204
-111.0186
-123.9907
-174.994
396.666
-48.71755
-347.5492
-115.0091
0.706422
17.47752
-234.1644
-227.1123
-179.8885
49.48797
-260.2869
11.9806
327.2636
524.1118
30.85345
-159.339
182.5781
158.6426
321.1665
-355.7022
-211.0552

8.421854
1.257037
8.456823
14.40632
6.659786
7.630199
11.2032
18.70184
2.732336
23.57864
6.940804
0.040459
0.991351
15.43602
15.58766
12.96027
3.297
21.21328
0.892742
19.64368
25.06512
1.894012
10.98132
10.57198
9.138401
16.4532
25.04945
15.69184
11.76777

1840.491
1895.415
1912.669
1986.125
1911.892
1839.467
1769.416
1693.607
1863.425
1847.212
1710.667
1687.011
1706.271
1726.987
1643.285
1560.665
1476.041
1463.56
1347.47
1314.354
1423.865
1673.638
1665.387
1587.451
1642.513
1684.733
1800.204
1667.378

57.50854
-42.41471
102.331
-277.125
-244.8918
-214.4669
-207.4163
427.3928
-80.42517
-373.2116
-53.6665
58.98904
56.72902
-209.9865
-186.285
-172.6647
24.95893
-236.5603
-5.470215
351.6463
667.1349
-44.63769
-214.3867
139.5495
93.48659
267.2669
-380.2044
-322.3778

|Pei|

1.314879
7.842553
2.765389
11.95424
17.00538
10.75563
29.41775
12.69294
5.940665
11.54341
2.482073
1.004998
9.600175
3.908473
15.75145
5.888671
10.96058
12.69879
16.22444
4.708282
13.43996
7.253959
1.558273
18.8575
18.63973
10.39057
13.68653
13.44346
22.06153
6.959081
6.365359
21.2718
14.15449
28.5338
11.83942
3.74314
4.004348
4.56415
17.98426
5.15459
13.81587

3.029955
2.288975
5.078462
16.21562
14.69057
13.19796
13.27889
20.15053
4.510666
25.31965
3.238775
3.378525
3.217755
13.84222
12.78552
12.43982
1.66282
19.27957
0.407617
21.10722
31.90507
2.74019
14.7751
8.080455
5.385172
13.69195
26.77496
23.96861
11.26607