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Julia Castaneda
Philosophy 25
11-28-15

Analyzing Public Opinion Surveys

First off a public opinion poll is a survey of public opinion from a specific sample of
people. These Opinion polls are mainly designed to represent the opinions of a population by
asking the participants a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within
confidence intervals. Although many of these public opinion surveys claim to be formal
inductive arguments, we must carefully analyze the results of the survey in order to trust it. There
are various ways to distinguish a strong inductive argument from a weak inductive argument. For
example, a strong survey should have a good method of selecting the sample population.
Preferably, random method of selection because this gives the best results and usually strays
away from biased outcomes by giving all individuals of the population an equal chance of being
selected as subject. Other important factors of a strong public survey are, a high confidence level
that is set at 95% or higher and a low error margin which is determined by a high sample number
(Critical Thinking 10th ed., 2012). So with that being said, I will be analyzing two public option
surveys and distinguishing wether the survey is a strong or a weak survey based upon what I
have learned about analyzing inductive arguments in chapter 10 of the Critical Thinking text
book. First I will analyze the stronger survey and second I will analyze the weaker survey.

For the stronger of the two surveys I chose to analyze, the property in question; which is
the question being asked of the respondents , is wether they , we're pessimistic or optimistic on
the future of greater new orleans after the disasters that hurricane Katrina caused the city

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(Kaiser Family Foundation, New Orleans Surveys 2006, 2008, 2010). The sample size for this
survey consisted of 1,517 adults. (Kaiser Family Foundation, New Orlean Surveys, 2006, 2008,
2010). Considering the sample size is over 1000 it is generally large enough to avoid hastiness.
Furthermore, the sample population was taken from adults ages 18 and older residing in New
Orleans, Louisiana. The target population in the survey was the adults in the city of New Orleans
who experienced the devastations of hurricane Katrina. Of the Respondents from 2015, 764 of
them were african americans and the other 574 were whites. The methodology in selecting the
sample for this survey was the method of random selection. SSRS and Kaiser Family
Foundation researchers collaborated on sample design for the survey. They conducted 705
surveys via landline or telephone, and 812 cell phone surveys were carried out in English and
Spanish (Kaiser Family Foundation, New Orlean Surveys, 2006, 2008, 2010). The cell phone
surveys were carried out by calling participants who's numbers consisted of greater new orleans
area codes and the landline surveys consisted of randomly generated phone numbers in New
Orleans. These numbers were provided by the Marketing System Group. To check that the
respondents were within geographic eligibility, they were asked to give information such as their
addresses. Next to ensure no bias, with in the sample for the landline calls, respondents were
selected by asking for the adult male or female living in the household who had the most recent
birthday (Kaiser Family Foundation, New Orlean Surveys, 2006, 2008, 2010). Lastly to
maximize the surveys amount of respondents they called at different times of the day and
different days of the week, and they allowed respondents to call back when they could. Also
respondents who did not want to participate due to concerns on cell phone charges were offered
money to complete the survey. So in the end this survey had a great methodology in selecting the
sample there were hardly any areas for biased as defined in chapter 10 of the ,Critical Thinking

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text book to creep into the sample because the survey was well conducted and accounted for
many factors that could have created biased results. On that note, on a scale of 1-10, 1 being the
weakest and 10 being the strongest, I consider this public opinion survey to be a 8 because they
had a precise method of random selection and the sample size was large enough to avoid
hastiness. The target population in the survey was the adults in the city of New Orleans who
experienced the devastations of hurricane Katrina.

On the other hand , for the weaker of the two public opinion polls, the property in
question, is wether they think drugs to treat an overdose should only be available with a
prescription, based on their political Party ID, such as democrats, republicans, and independents
(Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll, 2015). The sample size for this survey consists
of 1,352 adults. The sample size from this survey is large enough to avoid hastiness because
according to the text book, Critical Thinking 10th ed., it states a sample size larger then 1000
is large enough to statistically represent any sized population. The sample population was taken
from all adults ages 18 and older living in the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii. The
methodology in selecting the sample was a method of random selection. They randomly called
representatives through landlines and cells phones to carry out the survey. 540 surveys were
carried out though land lines and 812 surveys were carried out through cell phones in both
English and Spanish language, under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates
International (Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll, 2015). In the landline surveys,
respondents were selected by asking for the youngest adult male or female currently at home and
for the cell phone survey, the interview was carried out with the adult who answered the phone.
Next, the target population of this public survey is the adults living in the united states. Lastly, on

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a scale of 1 through 10 with 1 being the weakest and 10 being the strongest I would rate this
public poll as a 6 because of their methodology compared to the first survey. I see an opportunity
for biased to creep into the sample because the landline survey is asking for the youngest
member in the house hold and this could lead to results that are the options of mostly the young
adults rather then both the opinions of the young adult and older adults. This survey was not
conducted as well as the first one I mentioned above. Also this survey had a slightly lower
sample number which resulted in a little bit higher of an error margin compared to the first
survey.

Overall, both public surveys used the method of random selection which is a strength for
both, but the main difference between the two surveys is that one allowed for some possible
biased to creep in because although the second survey used the method of random selection
when calling respondents on the landline they were initially asking for the youngest adult in the
house hold not giving other possibly older adults in the house holds an opportunity to give their
opinion. So in conclusion when analyzing the two surveys based on the stronger argument, the
public opinion poll based on Hurricane Katrina is the strongest with the least possibility for
biased or untrue results.

Works Cited
Moore, and Parker. Critical Thinking. 10th ed. N.p.: McGraw Hill, 2012. Print.

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New Orleans Ten Years After The Storm, Section 1: New Orleans Residents Are Optimistic And
Rate Recovery Efforts Positively Report 8763. Kaiser Family Foundation, 10 Aug. 2015.
Web. 01 Dec. 2015.
Kaiser Health Tracking Poll: November 2015. Kaiser Family Foundation, 24 Nov. 2015. Web.