Overviewof

StudyStrategy
PresentedtotheRCPAG
Feb17,2016

Outline
KeyElementsofStrategy
Scheduleand
Deliverables
PublicCommentPeriod
March2016Meetings

20160216

KeyElementsofStudyStrategy
1. SupportingStudies
2. WeightofEvidenceAnalysis
3. SharedVisionPlanning
4. IntegratedEnvironmentalResponseModel
5. SharedVisionModel
6. RegulationandWaterSupplyAlternatives
7.DecisionWorkshops
8.PeakingandPonding
20160216

1.SupportingStudies

20160216

SupportingStudies
Theobjectiveofthisrulecurveevaluationstudyistoprovideto
theIJCwithscientificallysupportedrecommendationsforthe
modificationorretentionofthe2000RainyandNamakan
LakesRulecurves.
2009PlanofStudy addressedgapsinknowledgeon
particularriskfactors:hydraulics,environmental,cultural
21Studiesfunded.Finalreportsonwebsite,severalnearingend

InternationalWatershedsInitiative(IWI)fundedstudies
4studies

NonIJCstudies

14studies,manybyUSGS/NPS/Universities

TotaltoDate: 39Studies
20160216

CategoriesofSupportingStudies
CategoriesofStudy:
Fishspawningandhabitat
Hydraulicsandhydrology
Bird,herpetile andmammalhabitatandbreeding
MacroinvertebratesandMussels
FloodingandIcedamage
Touristresorts
CulturalResources
WaterQuality,temperature

20160216

2.WeightofEvidence

20160216

WeightofEvidenceApproach
OriginalapproachconsideredforRuleCurveReview
Matrixofresultsfromallstudiesgivesanoverallviewof
thechangessince2000.
Benefit:
Reliesonactualdatafromstudies
Drawbacks:
Notallstudiesconsiderpre andpost2000
Notallstudiesseparateouthydrology
Doesnotallowconsiderationofotheroptions
20160216

WeightofEvidenceApproachExample

20160216

3.SharedVisionPlanning

20160216

10

SharedVisionPlanning
ApproachaddedbyIJCinDirectivetoexpandonWOE
Allowsconsiderationof1970,2000RuleCurvesin
comparisontootheralternativesforarangeofbasinwater
supplyconditions
ReliesonmanyofthesamestudiesasWOE,butnot
limitedtohistoricdata
Isthebasisforacomprehensive,participatoryand
transparentevaluationprocess

20160216

11

4.IntegratedEnvironmentResponseModel

20160216

12

IntegratedEnvironmentalResponseModel
Abletomodelthespatiallydistributedphysicalvariables
ofthesystem(e.g.,waterlevelsandwavesformainlakes,
flowsintheRainyRiver,currents,waterlevel,depth,etc.)
Abletosimulateoverperiodofyearsataquartermonth
timestep undervariousrulecurvealternativesandwater
supplies
Modelstheresponseofanumberofecologicalvariablesto
thesehydraulicconditionstobuildhabitatmodels.
Allowsforarankingofrulecurvesintermsoftheir
impactsonthedifferentcomponentsoftheecosystem.
20160216

13

IntegratedEnvironmentalResponseModel

20160216

14

IntegratedEnvironmentalResponseModel
Forthelakes,includesseveral1Dmodelstosimulate
effectofwaterlevelchangesonwildrice,commonloon
muskrat,andwalleye.
Morecomplex2Dmodelsweredevelopedforlakesto
quantifyhabitatareaforwildrice,cattails,submergedand
emergentplants,wetmeadows,shrubbyswampsaswellas
northernpikeandwalleyespawninggrounds.
ForRainyRiver,2Dmodelsforsturgeonandwalleye
basedonflowcharacteristics(e.g.bottomslope,shear
stress)
20160216

15

5.SharedVisionModel

20160216

16

SharedVisionModel
Designedto:
InterpretresultsfromtheIERM
Integrateresultsfromotherstudies
Developevaluationmetricsthatcanbeusedtocomparerule
curvealternatives

EachModelSimulationwill:
Producewaterlevelsandflowsforspecificwatersupplyand
rulecurvealternative
Automaticallyinterpretwaterlevelsandflowsagainstasetof
predefinedPerformanceIndicatorsand
HydrologicMetrics
20160216

17

SharedVisionModel
PerformanceIndicatorsandHydrologicMetrics
Predefined,basedonstudies,IERMoutput
Representaquantitative,sciencebasedunderstandingofthe
studyandmodelsubjects
Willformthebasisforcomparisonofdifferentrulecurve
alternativesundertheSVPapproach.
TheStudyBoardandTWGwillexaminetheresultsofall
supportingstudiesforpossiblePIsthatareamenabletobeing
integratedintotheSVMortheIERM,includingthoseusedinthe
WOEanalysis.
Incaseswheretherearenoexistingstudiestosupportthe
developmentofneededPIs,theStudyBoardwillattemptto
developtherequiredinformation.
20160216

18

HydrologicMetrics
Statisticsonmeasurablewaterdata
Examples:
Frequencyofwaterlevel>Emergencylevel
%oftimewithinRuleCurverange
FirstDraftofSVMwillfocussolelyon
HydrologicMetrics

20160216

19

PerformanceIndicators
Usedtoquantifynon
hydrologicoutcomesof
waterlevelsandflows
E.g.%ofyearswheregood
wildriceproduction
expected
Quantitativerelationship
betweenPIandwaterlevel
orflow

20160216

20

6.RegulationandWaterSupplyAlternatives
SVMwillallowforchoiceofRegulationAlternative
andWaterSupplysetforeachmodelrun.
RegulationAlternatives:
1970RC,2000RC
StateofNature
Atleast3otheralternatives

WaterSupplyAlternatives:
Historic,simulatedcurrent,possiblefutureclimate
20160216

21

WhatShouldaSharedVisionModelDo?

20160216

22

7.DecisionWorkshops
The mathematical relationships that tie water levels and
performance together are PI functions. For example, a PI
function for flood damages might be structured to return
zero damage for water elevations below a certain level,
and then incremental damages of ten thousand dollars per
inch above that level. If the baseline plan produced
$50,000 in flood damage, and an alternative could reduce
the peak level by two inches, the flooding damages for the
alternative would be $30,000 for that event, creating a net
benefit of $20,000. Not all PIs will be measured in dollars,
so for now the results of the PI calculations are referred to
as scores or results.

20160216

May 2017

23

The mathematical relationships that tie water levels and

performance together are PI functions. For example, a PI
function for flood damages might be structured to return
zero damage for water elevations below a certain level,
and then incremental damages of ten thousand dollars per
inch above that level. If the baseline plan produced
$50,000 in flood damage, and an alternative could reduce
the peak level by two inches, the flooding damages for the
alternative would be $30,000 for that event, creating a net
benefit of $20,000. Not all PIs will be measured in dollars,
so for now the results of the PI calculations are referred to
as scores or results.

20160216

May 2017

24

8.PeakingandPonding
Intradayfluctuationsinoutflowfrom
powerhousesinFortFrances/I.Fallstomaximize
valueofenergygenerated
GenerallynotaconcernforRainyLakelevels,but
mayhaveimpactonecologicalandproperty
interestsalonglowerRainyRiver
Subcommitteeexamining

20160216

25

7.ScheduleandDeliverables

20160216

26

StudyMilestones
February,2016 StartofPublicCommentPeriodforDraftStudy
Strategy
March2016 InternationalRainyLakeoftheWoodsWatershed
Forum StudyBoardpublicinformationmeetings,Practice
DecisionWorkshop
Summer2016 PublicMeetingsthroughoutbasin
Late2016 FurtherPracticeDecisionWorkshops,updates
March21,2017 DraftreportsubmittedtotheIJC
May31,2017 FinaldraftreportsubmittedtotheIJC;Public
hearingstobeheldasrequired
20160216

27

StudyStrategyPublicCommentPeriod
DraftStrategysoon
tobepublically
releasedbyIJC,
availableonwebsite
Willbeapublic
commentperiod,
normally30days

20160216

28

March2016MeetingsinInternationalFalls
TuesdayMarch8
1:002:00:RCPAG StudyBoardmeeting,R.R.CommunityCollege
2:004:30PracticeDecisionWorkshop:
StudyBoard,TWG,RCPAG,RAG,IRLWWB,alsobywebinar

Evening IJCPublicOpenHouse,6:308:00pm
WednesdayMarch9
WatershedForum SidemeetingsforStudyBoardwithstakeholders
ThursdayMarch10

WatershedForum 1pm:WaterLevelRegulationSession,
StudyBoardPresentation
20160216

29

20160216
30

FurtherInformation
http://ijc.org/en_/RNLRCSB

20160216
31