p=[ ]

t=[ ]
net=newff(minmax(p), [30 1], {'tansig','purelin'},'trainlm');
BobotAwal_Input = net.IW{1,1}
BobotAwal_Bias_Input = net.b{1,1}
BobotAwal_Lapisan=net.LW{2,1}
BobotAwal_Bias_Lapisan=net.b{2,1}
net.trainParam.epochs=1000;
net.trainParam.goal=1e-3;
net.trainParam.lr=0.1;
net.trainParam.show=100;
net=train(net,p,t);
y=sim(net,p)
x=xlsread('consump1.xlsx','sheet1','A1:A89');
p=x'
y=xlsread('consump1.xlsx','sheet1','A2:A90');
t=y'
net=newff(minmax(p), [13 1], {'tansig','purelin'},'trainlm');
BobotAwal_Input = net.IW{1,1}
BobotAwal_Bias_Input = net.b{1,1}
BobotAwal_Lapisan=net.LW{2,1}
BobotAwal_Bias_Lapisan=net.b{2,1}
net.trainParam.epochs=1000;
net.trainParam.goal=1e-3;
net.trainParam.lr=0.1;
net.trainParam.show=100;
net=train(net,p,t);
y=sim(net,p)
y
m=xlsread('consump1.xlsx','sheet1','A90:A113');
pn=m'
n=xlsread('consump1.xlsx','sheet1','A91:A114');
tn=n'
net=newff(minmax(pn), [13 1], {'tansig','purelin'},'trainlm');
BobotAwal_Input = net.IW{1,1}
BobotAwal_Bias_Input = net.b{1,1}
BobotAwal_Lapisan=net.LW{2,1}
BobotAwal_Bias_Lapisan=net.b{2,1}
net.trainParam.epochs=1000;
net.trainParam.goal=1e-3;
net.trainParam.lr=0.1;
net.trainParam.show=100;
net=train(net,pn,tn);
y=sim(net,pn)
y'
yn=postmnmx(yn,mint,maxt);
E=tn-yn;
MSE=mse(E)
mape=[abs(((tn-yn)./tn).*100)];
MAPE=sum(mape)/24

bobot_1=[-0.6848
0.8315
0.5844
bobot_2=0.3115;

0.9412
0.9143
0.9190];

-0.0292

0.6006

-0.7162

net=newff(minmax(pn), [4 1], {'tansig','purelin'},'trainlm');

BobotAwal_Inputs = net.IW{1,1}
BobotAwal_Bias_Inputs = net.b{1,1}
BobotAwal_Lapisans=BobotAwal_Lapisan
BobotAwal_Bias_Lapisans=BobotAwal_Bias_Lapisan
net.trainParam.epochs=1000;
net.trainParam.goal=1e-3;
net.trainParam.lr=0.1;
net.trainParam.show=100;
net=train(net,pn,tn);
y=sim(net,pn)
x=xlsread('ariane.xlsx','sheet1','A1:A52');
p=x'
y=xlsread('ariane.xlsx','sheet1','A2:A53');
t=y'
m=xlsread('ariane.xlsx','sheet1','A54:A65');
pn=m'
n=xlsread('ariane.xlsx','sheet1','A55:A66');
tn=n'
net=newff(minmax(p), [4 1], {'tansig','purelin'},'trainlm');
net.trainParam.epochs=1000;
net.trainParam.goal=1e-3;
net.trainParam.lr=0.1;
net.trainParam.show=100;
net=train(net,p,t);
y=sim(net,p)

net=newff(minmax(pn), [30 1], {'tansig','purelin'},'trainlm');

BobotAwal_Input = net.IW{1,1}
BobotAwal_Bias_Input = net.b{1,1}
BobotAwal_Lapisan=net.LW{2,1}
BobotAwal_Bias_Lapisan=net.b{2,1}
net.trainParam.epochs=1000;
net.trainParam.goal=1e-3;
net.trainParam.lr=0.1;

-0.1565

net.trainParam.show=100;
net=train(net,pn,tn);
yt=sim(net,pn)
[p,t]= poststd (pn, meanp, stdp, tn, meant, stdt)
[pn,minp,maxp,tn,mint,maxt] = premnmx(p,t);
net=newff(minmax(pn), [30 1], {'tansig','purelin'},'trainlm');
net.trainParam.epochs=1000;
net.trainParam.goal=1e-3;
net.trainParam.lr=0.1;
net.trainParam.show=100;
net=train(net,pn,tn);

Selain itu, model ARIMA tidak dapat memodelkan time series yang non
linier (Zhang, 2003).

BobotAkhir_Input = net.IW{1,1}
BobotAkhir_Bias_Input = net.b{1,1}
BobotAkhir_Lapisan=net.LW{2,1}
BobotAkhir_Bias_Lapisan=net.b{2,1}
BobotAkhir_Input = net.IW{1,1}
BobotAkhir_Bias_Input = net.b{1,1}
BobotAkhir_Lapisan=net.LW{2,1}
BobotAkhir_Bias_Lapisan=net.b{2,1}
vji=BobotAwal_Input;
vj0=BobotAwal_Bias_Input
wkj=BobotAwal_Lapisan
wk0=BobotAwal_Bias_Lapisan

vji=net.IW{1,1}
vj0=net.b{1,1}
wkj=net.LW{2,1}
wk0=net.b{2,1}
vji=vji';
xi=0.792817971854712;
znet1=(xi*vji(:,1))
znet2=(xi*vji(:,2))
znet3=(xi*vji(:,3))
znet4=(xi*vji(:,4))
znet5=(xi*vji(:,5))
znet6=(xi*vji(:,6))
znet7=(xi*vji(:,7))
znet8=(xi*vji(:,8))

znet9=(xi*vji(:,9))
znet10=(xi*vji(:,10))
znet11=(xi*vji(:,11))
znet12=(xi*vji(:,12))
znet13=(xi*vji(:,13))
z1=(1-exp(-znet1))/(1+exp(-znet1))
z2=(1-exp(-znet2))/(1+exp(-znet2))
z3=(1-exp(-znet3))/(1+exp(-znet3))
z4=(1-exp(-znet4))/(1+exp(-znet4))
z5=(1-exp(-znet5))/(1+exp(-znet5))
z6=(1-exp(-znet6))/(1+exp(-znet6))
z7=(1-exp(-znet7))/(1+exp(-znet7))
z8=(1-exp(-znet8))/(1+exp(-znet8))
z9=(1-exp(-znet9))/(1+exp(-znet9))
z10=(1-exp(-znet10))/(1+exp(-znet10))
z11=(1-exp(-znet11))/(1+exp(-znet11))
z12=(1-exp(-znet12))/(1+exp(-znet12))
z13=(1-exp(-znet13))/(1+exp(-znet13))
A1=(wkj(:,1)*z1)
A2=(wkj(:,2)*z2)
A3=(wkj(:,3)*z3)
A4=(wkj(:,4)*z4)
A5=(wkj(:,5)*z5)
A6=(wkj(:,6)*z6)
A7=(wkj(:,7)*z7)
A8=(wkj(:,8)*z8)
A9=(wkj(:,9)*z9)
A10=(wkj(:,10)*z10)
A11=(wkj(:,11)*z11)
A12=(wkj(:,12)*z12)
A13=(wkj(:,13)*z13)
A14=A1+A2+A3+A4+A5+A6+A7+A8+A9+A10+A11+A12+A13
ynet=wk0+A14;
yk=ynet

z1=(1-exp(znet1))/(1+exp(znet1))