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R I S K I N D E N T I F I C AT I O N , R I S K
MEASUREMENT, RISK MAPPING
Syndicate 6
Syndicate 6
INTRODUCTION
General Motors was the worlds largest automaker
in 2001 with 15.1% market share. GM was founded
in 1908. GM had manufacturing operations in more
than 30 countries, and its vehicle were sold in
approximately 200 countries.
Eric Feldstein had three risk management decisions
to make: what to do about (i) GMs billion dollar
exposure to the Canadian dollar, (ii) GMs exposure
to the Argentinean peso in light of the expected
devaluation in the months ahead, and (iii) the
continuing strategic concern about fluctuations in
the Japanese yen, which figured so heavily into the
cost structures of some of GMs competitors.
Transactional Exposures
Debts and A/R
Affect income statement
Translational Exposures
Operational Exposures
OBJECTIVES
Risk Identification
Risk Measurement
Risk Mapping
COMPARISON
HEDGE RATIO
3.1%
Stronger
50%
3.1%
Weaker
3.1%
Stronger
75%
3.1%
Weaker
Commecial exposure
12-month rolling net receivables forecast (CAD)
-1,682
-1,682
-1,682
-1,682
-841
-841
-1,261
-1,261
841
841
1,261
1,261
-841
-841
-420
-420
-2,143
-2,143
-2,143
-2,143
-43.4
40.8
-43.4
40.8
17
-16
25.6
24
Exposure
Exp + Option
Exp + Forward
0
-500000
-1000000
-1500000
-2000000
Exchange
Rates
FORWARD OR OPTIONS?
Options: higher payoff when the CAD depreciates,
higher loss when the CAD apreciates.
Considering the volatility and the premium cost,
forward contracts are more desirable.
But, option contracts, in this case, are a more
flexible choice that cost GM only the premiums,
but can be easily traded in the market
Forward contracts, on the other hand, are a fixed
obligation locked in with a large notional amount.
ARGENTINEAN PESO
D E VA L U AT I O N R I S K
HEDGE IN 1- 6 MONTHS
COMPETITIVE
EXPOSURES
JPY CURRENCY RISK
30%
JPY devaluation
20%
30%
Sales elasticity
1.80%
1.80%
2
147600
147600
33%
49200
49200
10
11
12
13
Discount rate
Present value of loss (millions)
$ 5,966.67
293.56
20%
$1,467.80
YEN EXPOSURE
AFFILIATE EXPOSURE
GM
AFFILIAT AFFILIATE
SHAR
E
EXPOSURE
E
FUJI
GM Affiliate
Exposure
-1.5
20%
-0.30
ISUZU
-1.02
49%
-0.50
SUZUKI
-0.09
20%
-0.02
TOTAL
-0.82
1.47
Commercial
exposure
0.90
Affiliate
investment
exposure
-0.82
JPY bonds
exposure
-0.50
TOTAL
1.05
RISKS SCORE
No
Risk Type
Probability
1 CAD RISK
Transaction
2 ARS Risk
Translation
Default &
Devaluation
Competitive
risk/currency risk
3 JPY
Impact
Score
10
40
10
30
45
CONCLUSION
General Motor is a multinational company that closes with
global operation risks, such as transactional, translation and
economic
Hedging strategies will help GM to mitigate all risks that
appeared in global operation if GM does those strategies
correctly. Failure hedge may results a volatile cash flow and
makes losses in net income and shareholders equity
CAD transaction risk by using the 50% hedge ratio, the
currency exposure could gain higher profit but more volatile.
In contrast, by using the 75% hedge ratio, the currency
exposure possible gains lower profit but less volatile.
So that, higher hedge ratio may acquire less volatile with
more hedging cost.
CONCLUSION
Between option and forward contract, Forward
contract has beneficial gains that considered in
the volatility and the premium cost
In Argentina, to mitigate this devaluation risk, GM
could choose the shortest hedging process to
reduce the hedging cost (hedge in 6-12 month)
Base on risk mapping analysis, JPY and ARS has
low significant risk but its happen day by day. In
contrast, CAD has significant risk that seldom to
happen
RECOMMENDATION
Hedging shouldnt be interpreted as an all access
pass to risk-taking. It has to be fully responsible
GM should implement a strategy of paying its
employees and suppliers based on the real exchange
rate between Peso and Dollar, calculated by
comparing the PPPs of both countries.
It should also demand its receivables from the
Argentinean government instantly, in order to
convert them into USD before devaluation. If it is not
possible, it can enter into a forward contract with the
government at a predetermined exchange rate, in
order to partially offset its exposure.
RECOMMENDATION
Ongoing translational exposure will affect the
book value of assets and liabilities over a period
of time. They are largely affected by mediumterm volatility and should be hedged using oneyear forward contract.