Introduction:

Greece has fallen into a fiscal crisis. It is possible that the country will
not be able to pay back its debt, making the country default. The
consequence is that Greece has also fallen into an economic crisis.
Economic growth in the last decade has been very low. This crisis is
important becouse is the country in the worst situation in the
Eurozone, and is the first big crisis after the monetary and economic
European union. Economic collapse would probably create political
and economic problems, both in Greece and Europe, and there could
be a contagion effect.

The aim of this exercise is to analyse the stationariety of some

important Greek macroeconomic variables, through graphics and
tests. Data are annual series from 1970 to 2009.

• 1- Data preparation

Graphics:
a) GDP, market prices

2.50E+11

2.00E+11

1.50E+11

1.00E+11

5.00E+10

0.00E+00
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
GRCGDP
b)Net government interest payments, as a percentage of GDP

14

12

10

0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

GRCGNINTQ

c) Total disbursements, general government, as a percentage of GDP

 55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

GRCYPGTQ

The basic statistics for these series are:

GRCGDP GRCGNINTQ GRCYPGTQ

Mean 7.44E+10 4.798947 3.861.811
Median 4.01E+10 4.428871 4.143.531
Maximum 2.41E+11 12.07541 5.132.483
Minimum 1.11E+09 0.565292 2.312.106
Std. Dev. 7.85E+10 3.339192 8.172.885
Skewness 0.807969 0.472761 -0.632611
Kurtosis 2.296607 2.245357 1.965.491

Jarque-Bera 5.176695 2.439160 4.451.661

Probability 0.075144 0.295354 0.107978

Sum 2.98E+12 191.9579 1.544.725

Sum Sq. Dev. 2.40E+23 434.8578 2.605.046

Observations 40 40 40

We can see that we can not reject the nule hypothesis of normality (5%), so basic
inference can be applied.

We also see that the variance in each serie is rather high, compared with the mean
values, and this could be a sign of non-stationariety.
Correlograms:
A1) GDP, level:

A2) GDP, first difference:

A3) GDP, second difference:

B1)Net government interest payments, as a percentage of GDP, levels.

B2) Net governement interest payment, first difference.

C1)Total disbursements, general government, as a percentage of GDP, levels.

C2) Total disbursements, first difference.