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www.globalforecastingsolutions.com

www.forecastingnet.com

www.globalforecastingsolutions.com, 20-22 Wenlock Road, London N1 7GU, UK, tel: ++44-2076085679, email:
info@forecastingnet.com
______
Global Forecasting Solutions (GFS)
, ,

(forecasting & predictive analytics).
site
www.globalforecastingsolutions.com, Forecasting Net group LinkedIn.

1
Global Forecasting Solutions Ltd 2016

 -
-
.

Geert Hofstede: Power Distance (
), Individualism ( ), Masculinity
( ), Uncertainty avoidance (
), Long term orientation ( )
Indulgence ( ).
-
-
.

.
predictive analytics
(uncertainty acceptance)
, , ,

( individualism).
...

, :
,
,
,
,

.

(uncertainty avoidance)
.

, (uncertainty
avoidance), 1% ( 3%
) (opposite of Individualism)
0,7% ( 0,4%
). ,
,
, ,
/ 1%-3%
40-160
(
).

2
Global Forecasting Solutions Ltd 2016



.

Geert Hofstede.


.

Edward Burnett Tylor (1832-1917), :
, , ,
, ,


( ) ,
.


. ,
.

, ,
Geert Hofstede:

Power Distance ( )
Individualism ( )
Masculinity ( )
Uncertainty avoidance ( )
Long term orientation ( )
Indulgence ( )

1 62
88%
1 Geert Hofstede, http://www.geerthofstede.nl/dimension-data-matrix

3
Global Forecasting Solutions Ltd 2016

 77%
.

0 ( ) 100 ( )
:

1.

Hofstede,
.
(. Power Distance,
Individualism, Indulgence),

30 ,
.
.

4
Global Forecasting Solutions Ltd 2016

 2.
-
- 2
, :

Power distance: -, , , , -,

2 - 30% , 30%

5
Global Forecasting Solutions Ltd 2016

Individualism: -, , , , -,

Masculinity: -, , , , , ,
-
Un. avoid.: -, , , , -, ,

Long term or.: -, , , , , ,

Indulgence: -, , -, , ,

()
. World
Economic Outlook database .
(a)
(b)
,
1980-2007 .
2007
2008,
,
.

Predictive analytics
( )

.
- -
,
.
,
.

,
,
.

6
Global Forecasting Solutions Ltd 2016

 62
1
1980-2007 , , ,

(
1%).
1. ( ) 1980-2007

7
Global Forecasting Solutions Ltd 2016

 2. Maximum 3 19802007

2, ,
:

( 2.0%)
o Uncertainty acceptance ( Uncertainty avoidance)
o Thinking of we ( Individualism thinking of I)
(1.0-2.0%)
o
o ( Indulgence)
( 1.0%)
o ( Power distance)
o ( Masculinity)

4,
(
3):

3.
,
( ), :

: (-)
: (+)
: (+) (-) ,

: (+) (-)
: (-)
: (+) ,
: (+) , , (-)
,

3 : :

8
Global Forecasting Solutions Ltd 2016

: (+) , (-)

: (+) (-)
: (+) , , (-)

: (-)
: (+) (-) ,
,

9
Global Forecasting Solutions Ltd 2016

 4.

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Global Forecasting Solutions Ltd 2016


3. - 62

62

(uncertainty avoidance)
.
,
(uncertainty avoidance), 1%
( 3% )
(opposite of Individualism) 0,7%
( 0,4%
).
,

,
,
, /
1%-3%
40-160 (
).

11
Global Forecasting Solutions Ltd 2016

 -
: 62 (
) 1/3
.
, , -

- : , 62
(a) 77% (b) 88%
. (c)

62
(
- 62 ).
:
,
.

.
30 : (a)
,
(b)
(c)
,
2008,
.
:
.

, .
:
1980,
, ,
1990. (a) (b)

.
:

-
-
, ,
.

,

12
Global Forecasting Solutions Ltd 2016

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Global Forecasting Solutions Ltd 2016