The Future of Radio

- Le Radio en 2015 (2020)

Neuchâtel, Université, Aula des Jeunes Rives -

February 5, 2010.

Expert Perspectives and Future Scenarios for the Radio Media in 2015
Marko Ala-Fossi Brian O’Neill Helen Shaw
University of Tampere, Finland Dublin Institute of Technology, Ireland Dublin City University, Ireland
Stephen Lax Per Jauert Lars Nyre
University of Leeds, UK University of Aarhus, Denmark University of Bergen, Norway
 DRACE is an academic research group that specializes in studies of radio
and audio media.

 The radio medium is undergoing renewed challenges and significant

change in all markets. Digital radio technologies, mobile communications
and the internet have radically transformed the environment in which
radio, as traditionally conceived, operates.

 There is a widespread belief that radio must re-invent itself in the new
digital age to avoid a long term decline. If it does not go digital, it is
claimed, radio could become obsolete and lose younger audiences who
have become accustomed to a vast array of digital choices in their media
experiences.

 DRACE studies these changes with a variety of empirical methods,

conforming to the highest standards of international research in the field.

http://www.drace.org 2
Contemporary Radio – challenges and
significant change
 Convergence of technology and media platforms
through mobile communications and the Internet
 New generations of radio listeners has developed
new media habits
 The present situation of radio in Europe:
- tens of thousands of stations
- two hundred million listeners who spend
about three hours per day listening
 The long term future and viability of radio cannot
be taken for granted.

http://www.drace.org 3
Digital Radio in Europe
Technologies, Industries and Cultures

http://www.drace.org 4
Digital Radio in Europe: Technologies,
Industries and Cultures
 The aim of the book (forthcoming March 2010) is to
critically examine this process of change and re-
invention.

 Bringing radio into the digital era means more than

simply changing its mode of delivery into digital form.

 As audiences are aware from television’s

transformation in the digital era, major changes in the
medium have taken place in how television is produced,
how it is displayed and presented, and ultimately how
we as audiences use and value the medium.
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Possible digital broadcasting
systems for radio
 DAB Digital Audio Broadcasting 1995

 DAB+ [updated version] 2006

 DMB Digital Multimedia Broadcasting

2005
 DRM Digital Radio Mondiale 2001

 DRM+ [update for FM band] 2009?

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Possible digital broadcasting
systems for radio
 DVB-T Digital Video Broadcasting
[Terrestrial]
 (digital TV)
 DVB-H Digital Video Broadcasting
[Handheld]
 (mobile TV)

…
 IBOC i.e. HD Radio
 A proprietory system from the US
 ISDB-T
 Developed in Japan, will be used also in Brazil
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Multiplex = a bundle of audio channels
delivered over the same frequency channel
 DAB multiplex: 9 radio services

 DAB+ multiplex: 28 radio services

 DAB/DAB+ multiplex: 5 DAB services & 13

DAB+ services

Source: Prosch 2007

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Expert perspectives on the
present future of radio
 Data: 43 expert interviews between
05/2005-06/2006
 Ireland (3), UK (13), Denmark (6), Finland
(11) and Canada (10)
 Method: Qualitative content analysis
with a grounded approach
 Theoretical approach: Based on social
shaping of technology perspective and
diffusion of innovations theory

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How do you think people will
receive radio content in 2015?
 Most respondents believed in some kind of digital
terrestrial radio in their home countries
 DAB will be a strong option in the UK and Denmark,
but even there supplemented with DRM and DMB
 DVB-H was popular in Finland, while Canada might
have IBOC, DAB and satellite radio
 Most respondents believed that FM radio will still
remain significant both in Europe and Canada
 Internet-based radio and audio services will grow,
but the idea of satellite radio was rejected in Europe
 No consensus about the dominant European
way of delivering radio in 2015: on the
contrary, most believed that there will be
distinct national solutions
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Why the future of radio then
will be like that ->
 Differences in national regulation and frequency
administration will result fragmentary situation in
Europe
 Proprietary systems will not be tolerated, expensive
copyrights may prevent the use of certain systems
 The existing market penetration of FM radio means
that it will be around for a while
 DAB is an expensive and uneconomic system for
commercial and community stations
 DAB coverage patterns do not match with the needs
of commercial and community stations
 In Europe, DRM is the favorite secondary system –
also to supplement or even replace DAB
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What would be the content of
radio in 2015 ?
 Two main trends everywhere:
 Personalized / on-demand radio will grow
 Higher listener sovereignty: more specialized
options, no schedules - audio where and when you
want it
 More content will be produced by the audiences,
some may be non-edited
 Traditional broadcast / linear radio will
remain because of its strengths
 Mobility, easy access, real-time broadcasts,
localism, entertainment as well as traditional
journalistic and artistic audio programming
 However, different types of content may be linked
to different platforms

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"Digital Diversity" 14
Multimedia, on-demand and subscription "Multimedia Market"
services are gradually becoming as
15 important as traditional broadcast audio
33
22
19
5 27

25,6% 20,9%
8
18 43
41

2 4 38

23 26 24

6 16 Content consumption
42

Radio w ill become digital by using Digital radio w ill have a dominant
different technologies in different 35 Delivery technology design: a globally used technology or a
markets. No dominant design on a 21 combination of fully complementary
global level 31 technologies
40
12 32
17
34

37,2% 20 16,3%
13 10 7

29 25 39
1
37 30 11 9

3 Free broadcast delivery and linear / real-

time consumption of audio content is the
28 36 most important w ay to use both analog and
"Tow ers of Babel" digital radio. "DAB DReaM"
13

http://www.drace.org
World DMB & EBU digital radio
receiver profiles (09/2008)

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 radio 2.0 user generated content

dialogue

i - radio

e - radio

visibility

accessibility
Radio as we know it 15

http://www.drace.org
DRM + is a promising
candidate…

http://www.drace.org 16
… but still under development !

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How far are we .....?
Distribution of weekly listening to the 3
digital platforms in the UK

% All DAB Radio on Internet

digitals digital TV
platforms
2009 21.1 13.3 3.6 2.2
2008 18.7 11.3 3.2 2.2

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What is ahead of us ...2020?
• From flow to on demand
• From broadcasting to narrowcasting
• diversified content - “digital synergy radio”
----------------------
• From one-platform to multi-platform
• mobile media
• From one or two standards - to many
standards (multi standard radio sets)
• From passive listening to active choosing
• EPG’s: “Pandora” - www.last.fm

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...the future of radio is digital - but
which one - and when?

Thank you for your attention!

- on behalf of DRACE

pjauert@imv.au.dk

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