HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING

Micro – level aspects

Presented By,
Femin Francis
3rd Semester
MBA@JMC
 Human Resource Planning

“Through planning management strives to have

the right number and right kind of people at
the right places at the right time, doing things
which results in both the organization and the
individual receiving maximum long-run
benefit”.
 Micro level aspect of HRP

At micro level or organizational level, HRP is

more influenced by technology changes,
organizational restructuring, skill &
competency gap, strategic objectives, trade
union pressure, lead time for manpower
procurement etc. Micro level issues are
controllable by the organization.
 HRP at micro level include

I. HR demand Forecasting Techniques

II. Analysis of Manpower Supply
III. Manpower planning Models
 I. HR demand Forecasting Techniques
A. Delphi technique:-
It is a group process to achieve a consensus forecast. This
method calls for selection of experts either from within or
outside the organization. There will be a coordinator who
circulates questionnaire to each expert in the group.
Group members are not allowed to communicate each
other. Group members then write their observations.
Coordinator then edits these observations & develops a
new questionnaire & give it to group members. They
answer it. The process continues till the coordinator is
able to synthesize from the opinion of experts.
 I. HR demand Forecasting Techniques

B. Nominal group method:-

Like Delphi method, nominal group method also
involves a panel of experts. Under nominal group
method the members are given the opportunity to
discuss among themselves. The coordinator
assumes the role of a facilitator, allowing the experts
to sit together to discuss their ideas & records are
made on a flip chart. The process therefore affords
creativity & facilitates scientific group consensus.
 I. HR demand Forecasting Techniques

C. Time series analysis:-

Employment data over a time period are used under
this method as the basis for manpower forecast.
However mere projecting the past into the future
without considering endogenous & exogenous
changes will increase the forecasting errors-either
under forecasting or over forecasting manpower
requirement. When we use time period we have to
consider trend, cyclical effects, seasonality,
step(sudden change), random fluctuations etc.
 II. Analysis of Manpower Supply

A. Wastage analysis:-
Wastage is severance from the organization
which include voluntary retirement,
retirement, resignation, death & dismissal.
Wastage decreases with the increase of length
of service, skill exercises & age of employee.
Wastage of manpower is more in female
employees than male employees.
 II. Analysis of Manpower Supply
Various techniques of wastage analysis are:-
(a) Labour turnover index =
No. of employees leaving 100
Avg. no. of employees employed
(b) Stability index =
(No. of employees with more than 1 year
service now.) 100
total employed 1 year ago
 II. Analysis of Manpower Supply
Various techniques of wastage analysis are:-
(c) Cohort analysis:-
Considers length of service which is an important
variable in wastage analysis. This therefore
eliminates the defect of labour turnover index.
(d) Census analysis:-Collects information about:-
1.No. of employees at the beginning of census
2.No. of employees at end of census
3.No. of leavers during the period of census.
 II. Analysis of Manpower Supply

B. Skills Inventory
Skills inventory containing various information
about individuals and their suitability for
different jobs. It includes name of the
employee and a listing of job related skills,
training and/or experience which would prove
useful in a future assignment.
 III. Manpower planning Models

A. Markov models:- The basic assumption of this

model is that an employee in a particular grade or a
status group has a fixed chance of promotion in a
given year, independent of vacancy. The central
equation is n(t+1)=n(t)P+R(t+1)r where n(t)=no. of
employees in each status group, P=matrix of
transition probabilities between each of status
group, r=vector of probabilities of a recruit starting
in particular status group, R(t)=no. of new recruits
at time ‘t’.
 III. Manpower planning Models

B. Renewal models:-
This model is issued to predict the various
flows in the organization when size of the
stocks is fixed in advance.
L(T) = f(t) +(t) L(T-t) dt
Where f(t) = frequency by length of service or
leaving
L(T) = leaving rate at time T
 III. Manpower planning Models

C. Cambridge model:-
Evaranuz developed it in 1975. This model
concentrates on steady–state age distribution
i.e., staff distribution by age, which remained
unchanged year to year. Steady state is a
stable equilibrium. Thus if the system is
affected i.e., if it goes beyond equilibrium it
will tend to return it.
 III. Manpower planning Models

D. Simulation:-
Involves four phases.
a. Definition of the problem & statement of
objectives.
b. Construction of an appropriate model
c. Experimentation with the model constructed
d. Evaluation of the results of simulation
 III. Manpower planning Models

E. Replacement Theory:- A replacement is called for

whenever new equipment offers more efficient or
economical service than the old existing one. For
e.g.:- the old equipment might fail & work no more
or is worn out & needs higher expenditure on its
maintenance. The problem in such situations is to
determine the best policy to be adopted w.r.t.
replacement of the equipment. The replacement
theory provides answer to this question in terms of
optimal replacement model.
 CONCLUSION

HRP process considers both macro & micro

level issues. The problem of human resource
planning is not unique for Indian
organizations. Without proper HRP,
organizations would continue to make
manpower redundancy decisions on short
term operational results.