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AP Statistics Fiesta :: 2007-2008 :: Shubleka Name________________________

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Probability – Assessment I

Please present your neatly on a separate sheet. No calculators on this assessment.

Problem One

After all students have left the classroom, a statistics professor notices that four copies of the text were left
under desks. At the beginning of the next lecture, the professor distributes the four books at random to the
four students (1, 2, 3, and 4) who claim to have left books. One possible outcome is that 1 receives 2’s book,
2 receives 4’s book, 3 receives his or her own book, and 4 receives 1’s book. This outcome can be abbreviated
(2, 4, 3, 1).

1. List all the possible outcomes.


2. Which outcomes are contained in the event that exactly two of the books are returned to their
correct owners? Assuming equally likely outcomes, what is the probability of this event?
3. What is the probability that exactly one of the four students receives his or her own book?
4. What is the probability that exactly three receive their own book?
5. What is the probability that at least two of the four students receive their own books?

Problem Two

Suppose that a six-sided die is “loaded” so that any particular even-numbered face is twice as likely to be
observed as any particular odd-numbered face.

1. What are the probabilities of the six simple events?

2. What is the probability that the number showing is an odd number? At most 3?

3. Now suppose that that the die is “loaded” so that the probability of any simple outcome is
proportional to the number showing on the corresponding upturned face. What are the probabilities of
the six simple events? Calculate the probabilities of Part 2 for this die.

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