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2011


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I.

2007-2009


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Rita Babihuga(2007)
Macroeconomic and Financial Soundness Indicators: An Empirical
Investigation

FSI(financial

Soundness

Indicator)-
SEM
.

JEL : E44, G21, G28


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Transition to a Market

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VII

Funding
Demand
3-6 months

up to 1 month
6-12 months

1-3 months
1-2 years

) 1

. A Puzzle of High Interest Rates in Mongolia


Loans

Elena Loukoianova(2010)

0%

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100%



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2011 03- 30-


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1999
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III.4 -
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3.
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DI)

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4

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2

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FSI
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4

2011-2020 ( SEM)
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0.4

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0.3

15%

0.2

10%

0.1
5%

0
0%

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001


( -14 )
()
( )

-5%
2000

2006Q2
2007Q1
2007Q4
2008Q3
2009Q2
2010Q1
2010Q4
2011Q3
2012Q2
2013Q1
2013Q4
2014Q3
2015Q2
2016Q1
2016Q4
2017Q3
2018Q2
2019Q1
2019Q4
2020Q3

-0.1

()

: SEM
5500 1500 2013
2018
.



40%

.
-
20
.

.

.

III.4 -

21

2011-2014 FSIs 20- ( SEM)


0.25

35000

0.2

30000
25000

0.15

20000

0.1
15000

0.05
10000

5000

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NPL
ROA
CRWA

2004Q1
2004Q3
2005Q1
2005Q3
2006Q1
2006Q3
2007Q1
2007Q3
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q1
2009Q3
2010Q1
2010Q3
2011Q1
2011Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3

2004Q1
2004Q3
2005Q1
2005Q3
2006Q1
2006Q3
2007Q1
2007Q3
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q1
2009Q3
2010Q1
2010Q3
2011Q1
2011Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3

NPL_Forecast
ROA_FORECAST
CRWA_FORECAST

20_FORECAST

: SEM

2014

- 2





.



.

22

IV. ,




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.
o


8,9%-
9,9%


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o

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2008-2009


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o


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.

SEM


.





.

23

24

IV.



.
,


.





.

,

.

25

VI. ,

Hodrick, Robert J. and Edward C. Prescott, 1997, Postwar U.S.


Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation, Journal of Money, Credit,
and Banking, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 116
Faal, Ebrima, 2005, GDP Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps
in Mexico, IMF Working Paper 05/93(Washington: International
Monetary Fund)
.-, 2007, -

)
, 2011, 2012

., 2010,

MPCM
., .-, ., 2010,

., ., 2010,

Babihuga Rita, 2007, Macroeconomics and Financial Soundness
Indicators IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary
Fund)
, -- , 2008-2009,

1,2,32-
IMF, 2004, Compilation Guide on Financial Soundness Indicators
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/fsi/eng/2004/guide/index.htm
Tsolmon Erdene, 2010, ngolian banking sector ERINA discussion
paper Bank of Mongolia

VI. ,

, 2008, :
,


, 2011, # #
., 2011

Batnaym Damdinsuren, 2009, Asset price bubbles and challenges to Central
banks Case of Mongolia
, 2010, ,

., 2011,

, 2011,

IMF, 2011, Global Financial Stability Report
Balakrishnan, Ravi, Stephan Danninger, Selim Elekdag, and Irina Tytell, 2009

The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging


Economies, IMF Working Paper No. 09/133 (Washington: International
Monetary Fund)
Demirguc-Kunt, A., and E. Detragiache, 1998a, The Determinants of Banking
Crises in Developing and Developed Countries, Staff Papers, International
Monetary Fund, Vol. 45, No. 1, pp. 81-109
Hoggarth, G, A. Logan, L. Zicchino, 2005, Macro Stress Tests of UK Banks, BIS
Paper No.22. (Bank of International Settlements, Working Paper Series)
, , Bloomberg, IMF, Metalsmarket, CNN,
Finance.Yahoo

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