-------------------------------------------BLS GLOSSARY-----------------------------------------Discouraged workers (Current Population Survey) Persons not in the labor force who want and are

available for a job and who have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months (or since the end of their last job if they held one within the past 12 months), but who are not currently looking because they believe there are no jobs available or there are none for which they would qualify. Employed persons (Current Population Survey) Persons 16 years and over in the civilian noninstitutional population who, during the reference week, (a) did any work at all (at least 1 hour) as paid employees; worked in their own business, profession, or on their own farm, or worked 15 hours or more as unpaid workers in an enterprise operated by a member of the family; and (b) all those who were not working but who had jobs or businesses from which they were temporarily absent because of vacation, illness, bad weather, childcare problems, maternity or paternity leave, labor-management dispute, job training, or other family or personal reasons, whether or not they were paid for the time off or were seeking other jobs. Each employed person is counted only once, even if he or she holds more than one job. Excluded are persons whose only activity consisted of work around their own house (painting, repairing, or own home housework) or volunteer work for religious, charitable, and other organizations. Labor force participation rate The labor force as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population.

Marginally attached workers (Current Population Survey) Persons not in the labor force who want and are available for work, and who have looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months (or since the end of their last job if they held one within the past 12 months), but were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Discouraged workers are a subset of the marginally attached. (See Discouraged workers.) Unemployed persons (Current Population Survey) Persons aged 16 years and older who had no employment during the reference week, were available for work, except for temporary illness, and had made specific efforts to find employment sometime during the 4-week period ending with the reference week. Persons who were waiting to be recalled to a job from which they had been laid off need not have been looking for work to be classified as unemployed. Unemployment rate The unemployment rate represents the number unemployed as a percent of the labor force. Note: Changes Dec 2011 to Jan 2012 NOT COUNTED AS UNEMPLOYED: Not in labor force 12/2011-01/20112 .... +1.572 Million Not in Labor Force, Want a Job Now 01/2012....+6.495 million Not in Labor Force, Searched For Work and Available .... +2.809 million

----------------http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/01/employment-trends-since1955.html------

Employment Trends Since 1955

Source: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/01/employment-trends-since1955.html

Reader Tim Wallace sent some comments and a nice chart in response to Nonfarm Payroll +200,000 ; Labor Force Drops Another 50,000 ; Those Not in Labor Force Rises by 194,000 ; Unemployment Rate 8.5%; Notes from Trim Tabs on the BLS Report

Wallace writes .... Hello Mish On today's labor report: Note how the labor force has flat lined for four years even though population growth has averaged 1.5 million for the past 55 years. From 1993 to 2007 population growth was 1.7 million per year! Thus, the labor force should not suddenly turn flat since retirements do not even come close to explaining the chart. Yet, suddenly the work force has just been frozen in time although the population continues on the same upward trend. The work force is literally one million smaller than during Bush's last year in office. This is statistically impossible, at least judging from historic trends. We also are still 5.6 million people below the employment number of the peak year in 2007. So, practically speaking we have approximately 11.6 million more people unemployed than in 2007. If we add the additional 6 million that should be counted as available for the labor force, the unemployment number at the U-3 level surges past 11% as you have said numerous times. Tim _______ Mishs Global Economic Trend Analysis _________________________ http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/01/nonfarm-payroll-200000-laborforce.html NOTE: Includes selected data from this blog post: BLS - Household survey data:

In the last year, the civilian population rose by 1,695,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 274,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 1,421,000. Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.

Table A-15 Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is. Distorted Statistics (See Table A-15, above) Given the total distortions of reality with respect to not counting people who allegedly dropped out of the work force, it is easy to misrepresent the headline numbers. Digging under the surface, the drop in the unemployment rate is nothing but a statistical mirage. The official unemployment rate is 8.5%. [Dec 2011} However, if you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6. While the "official" unemployment rate is an unacceptable 8.6%, U-6 is much higher at 15.6%. Both numbers would be way higher were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years. In the last year alone, the civilian population rose by 1,695,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 274,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 1,421,000. That puts a huge damper all all reported unemployment rate statistics. Things are much worse than the reported numbers would have you believe. The entire economic picture is on very thin ice given the clear slowdown in the global economy.

Obama Unemployment Magic Trick: Indefinitely Detain 4 Million People from Workforce - John Ransom 2/16/2012 Although theres little doubt that job creation is speeding up in the private sector, unemployment is not going down as widely touted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). In fact, its likely unchanged since the beginning of the recession because the government is deliberately undercounting the workforce to make unemployment appear to go down. Missing in the latest labor report are at least 1.2 million job seekers who have been added to the civilian population over the last year but not to the work force, thereby artificially deflating the unemployment rate.

Chart by Zero Hedge:

BLS is undercounting the workforce by lowering the Labor Force Participations rates

They are missing in part because the BLS no longer counts people who have been unemployed for so long that they have stopped looking for work. Since 1994 the BLS has discontinued the practice of counting the long-term discouraged workers from the workforce. If a worker stops looking for work after a period of time, they are no longer counted in the workforce. That means that government has created a system whereby the longer a jobs recession continues, the less reliable the unemployment numbers become- to the advantage of the government. In December of 2010 there were just shy of 239 million workers in the civilian pool available to the work force. In the last year, that number has risen by 1.6 million to 240.5 million people. At the same time, the officially-counted workforce as used by the BLS has risen by only 274,000 workers. At a participation rate of 64 percent, that number should be closer to 1.1 million workers. Indeed, over the last year, the participation rate has also dropped from 64.3 percent to 64 percent. In other words, fewer people from the available population are counted as available to the workforce, thereby decreasing unemployment numbers. In making an apples-to-apples comparison with a year ago, the country should have about 1.2 million more workers in the workforce than the BLS currently calculates. If one accounts for those extra workers, top line unemployment is at 9 percent. But thats not the end of the deception. Since the beginning of the recession labor participation rates have gone down from an average of 65.8 percent since 1980 as calculated by Zero Hedge to 64 percent, a rate not seen since the

early 1980s. Indeed the persistency of this jobs recession is shown in the precipitous decline in the labor participation rates regardless of where the official unemployment rate has stood. Just using the average participation rate of 65.8 percent since 1980 supplied by Zero Hedge, there are 4.4 million workers missing from the work force. Zero Hedge predicts that if the BLS keeps dropping the workforce number at the current rate, unemployment will hit zero just prior to the general election no matter how many jobs Obama saves. It won't surprise anyone that as of December, the real implied unemployment rate was 11.4% basically where it has been ever since 2009 - and at 2.9% delta to reported, represents the widest divergence to reported data since the early 1980s. And because we know this will be the next question, extending this lunacy, America will officially have no unemployed, when the Labor Force Participation rate hits 58.5%, which should be just before the presidential election. If you can give Obama a Nobel Peace Prize for a non-existent peace, you should also consider an Oscar award for a movie yet to made. If there were a remake of Dr. Strangelove today, thered be no better subject than the Obama administrations deconstructionist assault on truth. The sad thing is that so many people are willing accomplices in that assault. For this administration, lying is a state of mind; supplying guns to drug traffickers is a noble act; killing healthcare is saving healthcare; ignoring entitlement reform is preserving entitlements; ignoring laws on immigration, recess appointments, detention of Americans, wiretaps, declarations of war, are all the constitutional prerogatives of the great constitutional law-giver and professor-in-chief, Dr. Strangelove or; How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Obama. It would be hilarious, except its not a Hollywood movie. Obamas made it the truth. Or whatever truth means now.

The Truth Behind the January Jobs Report by Tierra Warren The economy added 243,000 jobs in January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Thats 108,000 more than the forecast of 135,000. As a result, the unemployment rate fell from 8.5 percent to 8.3 percent, the lowest level since February 2009.

For the last three months, job creation has averaged 201,000 a month, a sign that a labor market recovery may be truly underway. Unemployment fell equally for both men and women, and private employers hired 257,000 more people. The service sector alone added 176,000 jobs. Great news, right? Unfortunately, this growth comes despite, not because of, the stimulus policies Congress has enacted. The two-month payroll tax cut extension didnt create employment, for example, because employers see the tax change as temporary. The labor force participation rate shows no sign of improving. Revisions to the population estimates show that only 63.7 percent of adult Americans are active in the labor force (either employed or looking for a job). This is the lowest since 1983, a time when far fewer women worked. This is a worrying trend. Demographic factors caused labor force participation to peak in 2000 and gradually declineas the baby boomers aged and started to retire, their labor force participation fell. Since the recession began, however, participation rates plunged by 2.3 percentage pointsa drop that demographic factors do not explain. http://links.heritage.org/ct/7787834:11078241654:m:1:160953388:EC2D2E8252C21889813F53 9D46C5A560:r Heritage Foundation economists Rea Hederman and James Sherk point out some disturbing news buried in the jobs report: many people have simply stopped looking for work. (See second report below) This phenomenon, Hederman and Sherk go on to explain, reduces the measured unemployment rate because individuals who arent looking for work arent counted as unemployed.

Alan Krueger White Houses New Top Economist: Unemployment Benefits Are Not Stimulus Heritage 8/29/2011
Princeton University economist Alan Krueger, who will replace Austan Goolsbee as the White Houses chief economic advisor, is likely to provide a voice inside the administration for more-aggressive government action to bring down unemployment and, particularly, to address long-term joblessness, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. But will Kruegers recommendations jive with the presidents apparent economic and political agenda? Krueger co-authored a paper for the Handbook of Public Economics in 2002 that seems to undercut the economic argument for extending unemployment benefits. The paper found that those benefits tend to increase the
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length of unemployment by discouraging the search for a new job, and may actually encourage layoffs. Conversely, the paper also found that unemployed persons who are ineligible for benefits search harder for a job and are therefore unemployed for less time ... Liberal economic theory holds that additional government handouts will stimulate consumer demand, create economic activity, and therefore lead to greater employment as businesses take in more revenue. While Krueger did not examine the direct effect of unemployment benefits on economic growth, the 2002 NBER paper did conclude that such benefits do not alleviate, and may very well exacerbate unemployment. The empirical work on unemployment insurance (UI) and workers compensation (WC) insurance finds that the programs tend to increase the length of time employees spend out of work, the abstract of Kruegers paper states. The papers examination of others work on unemployment benefits finds that the main labor supply effect of UI is to lengthen unemployment spells.

Heritage Employment Report January Jobs By Rea Hederman, Jr. and James Sherk The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in January, the economy added 243,000 jobs108,000 more than the consensus forecast of 135,000. As a result, the unemployment rate fell from 8.5 percent to 8.3 percent, the lowest level since February 2009. For the last three months, job creation has averaged 201,000 a month, a sign that the labor market recovery may be truly underway. Unfortunately, many fiscal policies enacted by Congress have generated little job growth. A two-month extension of the payroll tax cut does little to create employment, because the duration of the tax change is seen as temporary. Even worse, businesses have the added uncertainty of the expiration of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, which will constrain hiring. The January Report The American labor market had a strong month in January. The unemployment rate fell from 8.5 percent to 8.3 percent as many Americans were able to find work. The unemployment rate for adult men fell to 7.7 percent, the first time it has been under 8 percent since January 2011. This matches the unemployment rate of women, which fell from 7.9 to 7.7 percent.

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The establishment survey had very good news, with 243,000 new jobs being created and upwards revisions of 60,000 for the two previous months. The number of hours worked also increased from 33.7 to 33.8 hours, and wages increased by 2 cents an hour. This is solid evidence of a strengthening labor market as more workers were added and existing workers worked more. Private-sector job growth was 257,000 and was widespread. Manufacturing (50,000) and construction (21,000) had solid growth for the second straight month. The service sector (176,000) was led by professional business services (70,000) and health care (29,700). Temporary services (20,100) had a solid month. Government (14,000) shed jobs mostly at the local level (11,000) and federal level (6,000). Dropping Out of the Labor Force The jobs report does contain some disturbing news: The labor force participation rate shows no sign of improving. Revisions to the population estimates show that only 63.7 percent of adult Americans are active in the labor force (either employed or looking for a job). This is the lowest since 1983, a time when far fewer women worked. This is a worrying trend. Demographic factors caused labor force participation to peak in 2000 and gradually declineas the baby boomers aged and started to retire, their labor force participation fell. Since the recession began, however, participation rates plunged by 2.3 percentage pointsa drop that demographic factors do not explain.[1]

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This phenomenon reduces the measured unemployment rate, because individuals who are not looking for work do not count as unemployed. The Congressional
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Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the unemployment rate would be 1.25 points higher if labor force participation had not unexpectedly declined.[2] CBO estimates that while the participation rate will stabilize in the near future, it will continue to decline as boomers retire. The unemployment rate does not reflect this labor market weakness. Impact of Uncertainty The January report gives hope that the long-awaited labor market recovery is well underway. Unfortunately, many fiscal decisions in Washington have been made that have not helped the labor market. In December, Congress extended a reduction in the payroll tax for two months as a way to stimulate job growth. A oneyear extension, much less a two-month extension, does nothing for job growth, as companies are forward-looking. There is evidence that companies are more concerned about the looming expiration of the 2001 and 2003 tax bills instead of yet another short-term tax measure. Temporary tax cuts do little to increase economic growth instead of more permanent tax measures. Researchers regularly ask small businesses what the single greatest problem they face is. In January, almost twice as many said the tax or regulatory burden (41 percent) as did poor sales (23 percent).[3] Congress can do little to improve business sales, but it directly controls taxes and regulations. Congress can encourage businesses to expand and hire by creating a favorable business climate. Congress should not raise taxesespecially not on entrepreneursand should streamline or eliminate unnecessary regulations. A Steady but Weak Recovery The January report is one of the strongest reports since last spring. Even better news is that there is now a three-month trend of job growth exceeding 150,000 jobs. It looks like the labor market recovery is strengthening. Unfortunately, the recovery is still too weak for where it should be in this business cycle. Congress should make permanent the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts as a way to bolster hiring and economic growth. Rea S. Hederman, Jr. , is Assistant Director of and Research Fellow in the Center for Data Analysis, and James Sherk is Senior Policy Analyst in Labor Economics in the Center, at The Heritage Foundation. (NOTE: Job growth of 150,000 inadequate. Need 250,000 per month to meet net demands of growing population.) The January Jobs Are Statistical Artifacts - Foreign Policy Journal 2/7/2012 by Paul Craig Roberts February 7, 2012 Last Friday the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in the first month of this new year 243,000 jobs were created and the unemployment rate (U.3) fell to 8.3 percent. This good news is a mirage. It is due to faulty seasonal adjustments and to

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the BLS birth/death model. In a prolonged downturn, seasonal adjustments and the birth/death model produce nonexistent employment. The unadjusted data (NOTE: Gallup uses RAW DATA) show a rise in the unemployment rate. The birth/death model, which estimates the net effect of jobs lost from business failures and jobs created by new start-ups was designed for a normal growing economy, not for a prolonged downturn four years old. Statistician John Williams (shadowstats.com) reports that the BLS adds an average of 48,000 new jobs per month to the payroll employment report based on the birth/death model even though the economy has not come out of the deep recession. In other words, over the course of a year, the birth/death model adds about 580,000 jobs to the reported jobs numbers. End of year benchmark revisions quietly take the nonexistent jobs out of the totals, but these revisions do not receive headlines and pass largely unnoticed. The reported January jobs gains are contradicted by other official reports. For example, The January payroll jobs report shows 50,000 new jobs in manufacturing, but according to the recently released 4th quarter GDP, 81% of the reported growth consisted of undesired inventory accumulation. Normally, companies produce for sales not for inventories. Why would manufacturers be hiring people to produce goods for undesired inventories? Most of the new reported January jobs are in services. The January jobs report has 24,500 new jobs in wholesale and retail trade and 13,100 in transportation and warehousing. However the data shows that inflation-corrected real retail sales are down. Why does it take more people to sell fewer goods? The other remaining sizable components of the January jobs number are: professional and technical services (30,000), administrative and waste services (36,700), health care and social assistance (29,700), and leisure and hospitality (44,000) of which the largest component is food services and drinking places (32,800). The leisure, waitresses and bartender employment numbers seen high for January. Perhaps it was an excellent ski month in the US. However, accommodation (hotels) does not support this conclusion as accommodation lost 3,900 jobs. The BLS reports 21,000 new jobs in construction. However, the housing report says that housing starts dropped more than forecast in December, falling 4.1 percent. Why does it take more construction workers to produce fewer houses? Building permits, a proxy for future construction, were little changed. As the adjusted data produce phantom jobs and employment, the BLS should headline the raw unadjusted data. With so many discouraged workers unable to find jobs, dropping discouraged workers out of the measure of unemployment seriously understates the true magnitude of the unemployment problem. If Americans were aware of the double-digit unemployment rate, would they be as tolerant of Washingtons multi-trillion dollar wars? Would Obama be facing a tougher re-election campaign? Would Republicans be pushing to reduce the federal budget deficit at the expense of the social safety net? The phony data serve many interests, but not those of the American people

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MORNING BELL Job Growth should be stronger 2/3/2012

... But

what do all these numbers mean? Let's put today's job report into context using the President's own words -- promises that weren't mentioned in the President's State of the Union address. In January 2009, President Obama's advisers produced a chart projecting that with the President's economic plan, the unemployment rate would plummet to levels much lower than those we're seeing today. And the President pledged that if his trillion-dollar stimulus plan were enacted, unemployment never would rise above 8 percent -- a promise that has been broken every month since the stimulus became law ...

Little Room for New Workers-Churn rate-WSJ

As Risk-Averse Employees Stay Put, Job Opportunities Aren't Opening Up By BEN CASSELMAN The U.S. job market is finally growing stronger by almost every key measure, except one: Not enough people are quitting. A humming economy usually means a high rate of "churn" in the work force: employees voluntarily leaving one job for another in search of higher pay and new challenges. One worker's exit from a job opens the way for someone else to jump on to the ladder. But through the recent recession and recovery, that churning process has slowed and shows little sign of picking up. New data released Tuesday showed fewer than two million Americans quit their jobs in December, compared with about three million a month, on average, before the recession. "People aren't willing to take a chance and take a new job and create an opportunity for someone else," said Lawrence Katz, an economics professor at Harvard University. Quitting is a critical element of a flexible labor market, freeing up jobs that can be taken by new graduates, unemployed workers or employees of other companieswhose departures, in turn, create job openings. When people cease to change jobs, the system grinds to a halt. Churn, like other labor-market indicators, has recovered more slowly after the most recent recession than after the previous downturn. Quits bottomed out about a year and a half after the end of the 2001 recession, the first for which government statistics were available, and then rose sharply. The 2007-2009 recession was longer and deeper, but more than 2 years after it ended, the quit rate has yet to rebound significantly. Today's uncertain economy has made Jon Rossi reluctant to quit his job as a corporate information-technology manager. Mr. Rossi, 37 years old, last year launched a side project, StartupDenver, which runs job fairs and other events for technology companies in the Denver area. He would like to work full time on the project, which he hopes to expand to other cities. But Mr. Rossi said he worries about being able to find another job if his business fails. So for now, he is staying put. "I'm just a little risk-averse, unsure of a lot of things in the economy," Mr. Rossi said.

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Companies also have become wary of taking risks. Doug Tibbetts, chief executive of sports-apparel maker Boathouse Sports, said hiring is always risky, especially at the managerial level. So these days, when someone leaves the Philadelphia-based company, Mr. Tibbetts said his first question is, "Can we fill these roles with existing personnel?" Even when he does decide to fill a job, Mr. Tibbetts said, he goes slowly, to save a few months' salary. If a sales staffer leaves in the spring, for example, Boathouse will try to wait until the end of the slow summer season before filling the position. Quitting, hiring and firing are all part of churnjob turnover that, unlike layoffs or expansions, doesn't change the long-term size of a company. Churn makes up a huge part of the job market's daily turnover. A recent paper by researchers at Stanford University and the Bureau of Labor Statistics found that during the 2007-2009 recession, 80% of the reduction in hiring was associated with lower levels of churn, rather than with a decline in job creation. Churn plays an important role as a sort of economic lubricant, helping to move workers into jobs where they are a good fit, and ultimately reallocating the best workers to the best companies, improving economic efficiency. The U.S. has long had high levels of job turnover relative to other developed nations, which economists consider an important advantage. Even before the recession, however, there were signs that job turnover was slowing in the U.S. Economists aren't sure why, although the reason may be partly demographic; people tend to change jobs more frequently when they are young, so as the population ages, churn is likely to decline. Reflecting the long-term decline in labor-market turnover, the quit rate never reached its prerecession high following the 2001 downturn. Steven Davis, an economist with the University of Chicago, said it isn't clear what the long-term consequences of reduced churn will be. But in the short run, it makes it harder for the unemployed to find jobs, he said. "For workers who are unemployed, if there's less churning of jobs, it's harder to get on the merry-go-round," Mr. Davis said. "There's just fewer openings arising." {More, see U.S. Companies See Opportunities at Home} There are signs that as the economy improves, both companies and workers are becoming more willing to take risks. Private employers posted more job openings in December than any month since 2008. The number of quits fell slightly in December from November, but rose from a year earlier for the 13th consecutive month. A month ago, Leslie McCarroll quit her job as a pharmaceutical-sales representative in Reno, Nev., to launch a fitness magazine. Ms. McCarroll, a 38-year-old single mother, said friends warned her about leaving a steady job in a part of the country still reeling from the housing meltdown. "They'd say, 'You better have something as a backup. It's not a good time to quit your job,' " Ms. McCarroll said.

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But Ms. McCarroll wanted to teach her 10-year-old son about following dreams, and she decided there would always be reasons to wait. Besides, she said, the economy needs risk-takers. "This is not just self-serving. We are stimulating the economy," Ms. McCarroll said. "We are hopefully creating jobs." Write to Ben Casselman at ben.casselman@wsj.com

Record 1.2 M out of labor force submitted by Tyler Durden 02/03/2012 Rush Stack of Stuff

A month ago, we joked when we said that for Obama to get the unemployment rate to negative by election time, all he has to do is to crush the labor force participation rate to about 55%. Looks like the good folks at the BLS heard us: it appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million. No, that's not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month! So as the labor force increased from 153.9 million to 154.4 million, the non institutional population increased by 242.3 million meaning, those not in the labor force (Note: Labor Participation Rate) surged from 86.7 million to 87.9 million (NOTE: drop is 1.177 million.) . Which means that the civilian labor force (Labor participation rate: 63.7%)tumbled to a fresh 30 year low of 63.7% as the BLS is seriously planning on eliminating nearly half of the available labor pool from the unemployment calculation. As for the quality of jobs, as withholding taxes roll over Year over year, it can only mean that the US is replacing high paying FIRE jobs with low paying construction and manufacturing. So much for the improvement. Chart below shows it all - that jump is not a fat finger!

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And Labor Force Participation:

This is the largest absolute jump in 'Persons Not In Labor Force' on record...and biggest percentage jump in 30 years.

Gallup Economy February 17, 2012 U.S. Unemployment Increases in Mid-February Underemployment also up, to 19.0% by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist PRINCETON, NJ -- The U.S. unemployment rate, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 9.0% in mid-February, up from 8.6% for January. The midmonth reading normally reflects what the U.S. government reports for the entire month, and is up from 8.3% in mid-January.

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Gallup's mid-month unemployment reading, based on the 30 days ending Feb. 15, serves as a preliminary estimate of the U.S. government report, and suggests the Bureau of Labor Statistics will likely report on the first Friday of March that its seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased in February. Gallup found that unemployment decreased to 8.3% in its mid-January report, and suggested that the U.S. unemployment rate the BLS reported for January would decline. Gallup also finds 10.0% of U.S. employees in mid-February are working part time but want full-time work, essentially the same as in January. The mid-February reading means the percentage of Americans who can only find part-time work remains close to its high since Gallup began measuring employment status in January 2010.

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Underemployment, a measure that combines the percentage of workers who are unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work, is 19.0% in midFebruary.(Note: this is higher than BLS total unemployed rate (U-6), which is 15.1) This is higher than the 18.7% recorded for January, and is up significantly compared with January's mid-month reading of 18.1%. -

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Looking Ahead to the Government's Unemployment Report The U.S. government in early March will report its February unemployment rate. That rate will be based on mid-month conditions. Therefore, Gallup's mid-month unemployment reading, based on data collected through the 15th of the month, normally provides a good basis on which to estimate the direction of the government's unemployment rate for the month. In mid-January, Gallup results suggested the unemployment rate would decline, consistent with the government's positive January jobs report of Feb. 3. Seasonal forces typically cause unadjusted unemployment rates to increase at this time of year. In this regard, some of the sharp increase Gallup finds in unemployment and underemployment may result from seasonal factors. Although the government seasonally adjusts the U.S. unemployment rate, and the workforce participation rate could decline -- both of which could drive down its unemployment rate -- it still seems likely that the BLS will report an increase in the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate for February. Regardless of what the government reports, Gallup's unemployment and underemployment measures show a sharp deterioration in job market conditions since mid-January. This is consistent with a similar decline in Gallup's Job Creation Index to +13 in the second week of February, from +16 for January. It is also consistent with an economy that continues to struggle with modest growth, particularly as gas prices surge. Further, it suggests that it is premature to assume the condition of the economy will not remain a major issue for Americans both financially and politically in 2012. (i.e., overall unemployment is getting WORSE!).

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Gallup.com reports results from these indexes in daily, weekly, and monthly averages and in Gallup.com stories. Complete trend data are always available to view and export in the following charts: Daily: Employment, Economic Confidence and Job Creation, Consumer Spending Weekly: Employment, Economic Confidence, Job Creation, Consumer Spending Read more about Gallup's economic measures. View our economic release schedule. Survey Methods Gallup classifies American workers as underemployed if they are either unemployed or working part time but wanting full-time work. The findings reflect more than 18,000 phone interviews with U.S. adults aged 18 and older in the workforce, collected over a 30-day period. Gallup's results are not seasonally adjusted and are ahead of government reports by approximately two weeks. Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking from Jan. 17, 2012, to Feb. 15, 2012, with a random sample of 18,630 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is 1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanishspeaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are
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based on the March 2011 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. For more details on Gallup's polling methodology, visit www.gallup.com

The Congressional Budget Office: ... The official unemployment rate excludes those individuals who would like to work but have not searched for a job in the past four weeks as well as those who are working part-time but would prefer full-time work; if those people were counted among the unemployed, the unemployment rate in January 2012 would have been about 15 percent. [U6=15.1Table A-15]Compounding the problem of high unemployment, the share of unemployed people looking for work for more than six monthsreferred to as the long-term unemployedtopped 40 percent in December 2009 for the first time since 1948, when such data began to be collected; it has remained above that level ever since.

PICKET: Gallup shows U.S. unemployment at 9% By Kerry Picket February 14, 2012, 06:38AM
Gallup released new information on Monday showing that the unemployment rate has managed to creep back up to 9.0 percent. (NOTE: In March Gallup will report 9.0% as the February unemployment rate.) Gallup gathers daily unemployment information of U.S. adults in the workforce, ages 18 and older, who are underemployed, unemployed, and employed fulltime for an employer. (NOTE: BLS reports data for adults, ages 16 and older.) However, unlike the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report that the administration cites, Gallup's data are raw numbers numbers and not packaged with seasonal adjustments. With seasonal adjustments, BLS shows the unemployment rate at 8.3 percent. (NOTE: Workers in the Not in Work Force category, although not employed, are not counted as unemployed. Many of them because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Januarys shift of 1.2 million unemployed workers into the not in labor force category was the major cause for the decline in unemployment rate.) Gallup also shows the underemployment rate is at 19.2%. Those who are underemployed, according to Gallup, are individuals who "are employed part time, but want to work full time, or they are unemployed."

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