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18
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18.1
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18.1 1993 12 31 Gillette
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18.2 Gillette 1993 .
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18.3 Gillette 1993
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18.3
Gillette
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18.2. -
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. 1974 1981 2000
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George Foster, Chris Olsen Terry Shevlin Earnings releases, Anomalies, and Behavior
Returns
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18.1
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18.3. (ROE)
ROE
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18.4 Nodett-
(
$-)
EBIT
( $-)
ROA
(% )
(
$-)
ROE
(% )
80
100
120
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10
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5
10
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3
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18.5 ROE
Nodett
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($-)
($-)
ROE
(%)
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5
10
15
3
6
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3
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4.08
7.08
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6.8
11.8
, EBIT,
ROA
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Nodett Somdett ROA Somdett- ROE
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ROE, ROA-
5.
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5
18.1
EBIT - (1 )(EBIT )
ROE = =
=
=
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18.4
ROE-
ROE- ,
ROE- .
. ROE- Du
pont .
18.6
ROE
Nodett
Somdett
Nodett
Somdett
Nodett
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(1)
(2)
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EBIT
EBIT/
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.6
.6
1.000
0.360
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.0625
0.800
0.800
1.000
1.667
1.000
0.600
EBIT
EBIT
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1.000
1.0001.000
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0.680
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.1000
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.6
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0.787
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1.667
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1.134
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1.200
1.000
1.667
1.000
1.311
ROE- :
ROE =
(1)
(2) (3)
(4)
(5)
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3 4 . EBIT/
ROA- .
3-
(ROS) . ROS
$ . Nodett- ROS 0.10
10%, 0.0625 6.25%, 0.125 12.5% .
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ROE-
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IB
( 18.6- 2, 5 ). Nodett-
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ROS ATO-
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18.7
ROS ATO-
ROS
ATO
ROA
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0.02
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5.0
0.5
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ROS ATO
. , , Wal-Mart-
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: 2: 1- Mordett 18.6 .
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18.8- Growth
Industries, Inc (GI) 191, 192 193
.
GI 193 0.303
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,
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GI- 193 144 .
216 259.2 .
237.6 [(216
+ 259.2 )/2]. GI- 193
144 / 237.6 = 0.606 . , 193
0.606
.
191, 192 193
191
0.606
192
0.606
193
0.606
193
0.700
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GI-
.
. ,
( )
( ) .
18.8 Growth Industries- , 191-193 ( $)
190
191
192
193
$100,000
$120,000
$144,000
55,000
66,000
79,200
15,000
18,000
21,600
15,000
18,000
21,600
30,000
10,500
19,500
7,800
11,700
36,000
19,095
16,905
6,762
10,143
43,200
34,391
8,809
3,524
5,285
$50,000
60,000
72,000
86,400
25,000
75,000
30,000
90,000
36,000
108,000
43,200
129,600
150,000
180,000
216,000
259,200
$300,000
$30,000
45,000
$360,000
$36,000
87,300
$432,000
$43,200
141,957
$518,400
$51,840
214,432
75,000
75,000
75,000
75,000
( )
( 40%)
( )
(197 8%-
)
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.
( ).
.
191 GI- ( ) 40
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)/2]. 0.485 (40$ / 82.5$ ). 192
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(36 + 87.3) = 1.4686 .
191
1.46
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P/B
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P/B
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18.9 P/B ROE Plowback
Plowback (b)
ROE
0
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10%
12%
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P/B 1.0
ROE . ROE
ROE
.
Clayman7 1976- 1980 ROE 19.05%
29
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7.09% ROE 39
.
1981 1985
11.3%-
.
7
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.
ROA- GI2- ROE
. GI- 191 2.117
193 2.723
0.650- 0.204 , 1.376- 0.556
.
18.10 Growth Industries Inc
19X1
19X2
19X3
(1)
(2)
ROE
/EBIT
7.51%
6.08
3.03
8.64%
.6
.6
.6
.6
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.470
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.800
(3)
EBIT/
(ROS)
(4)
/
(ATO)
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30
30
30%
.303
.303
.303
.400
18.10 ()
(5)
19X1
19X2
19X3
ROE
(6)
(2)X(5)
7.51%
6.08
3.03
8.64%
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ROA
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P/E
P/B
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9.09
9.09
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8
6
4
8
0.58
0.35
0.12
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GI- 20%- ,
.
ROA .
.
193 , ,
20% ROA- 9.09% . (
$34,391,000 $ 6 ,
$ 141,957,000.)
18.11- GI-
. 18.8-
. GI-
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191 $12,700,000 193 $6,725,000
. ,
.
(
) 19X0 $150,000,000 193 $259,200,000
.
.
GI-
.
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.
,
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.
18.11 Growth industries- ( $-)
191
192
193
$ 11,700
15,000
(5,000)
(15,000)
6,000
$ 12,700
$ 10,143
18,000
(6,000)
(18,000)
7,200
$ 11,343
$ 5,285
21,600
(7,200)
(21,600)
8,640
$ 6,725
$(54,000)
$(64,800)
$
0
$ 54,657
$ 12,000
$
0
$ 72,475
$ 14.400
+
+ ()
+ ()
+
$(45,000)
**
***
*
**
$
0
$ 42,300
$ 10.000
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***
. Plowback
1.0 .
.
1995
1992
$ 253.7
411.9
517.6
4,857.9
6,679.3
2,233.3
$ 239.0
375.6
403.1
3,459.7
4,537.0
2,347.3
IBX- ROE- ? ,
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18.6
.
.
(GAAP)-
.
.
First Boston
1987
10-
First Boston-
.
, ,
. 1985 , , WarnerLambert
-
3-
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$3.12 1986
40%- ,
1984 .
.
,
,
First Boston-
59 . ?
.
Standard & Poor-
First
Boston- Park Avenue
.
:
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,
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Bhopal-
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S & P
$4.05
$3.05
.
.
,
.
. , Business
Week Corporate Scoreboard-
,
. S & P-
Dan Mayper S & P
.
.
.
, S & P
:
,, ,
1987 .
,
S & PS&P
. : Capital Cities/ABC
1986
Alcoa
$2.52
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$120.82
Affiliated Publ 4.08
0.16
First Boston
3.12
0.59
, S & P
Merrill Lynch
3.58
1.52
$24.26
Union Carbide 1.76
2.17
.
Marc
: S & P , Gerstein
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. S & P
: Business Week .
1988. McGraw-Hill, Inc.1988 4
11 .
,
.
.
.
GAAP
.
,
.
.
: LIFO (
) FIFO ( ).
.
Generic Product Inc (GPI) 1
.
1.
LIFO
,
.
FIFO
.
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$1 .
10 .
LIFO 1
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$1.10-
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$1.1
. FIFO LIFO
.
LIFO (
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10
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10
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//
( )
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FIFO .
FIFO
.
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.
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GNP .
capital consumption allowance (CCA
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.
.
.
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10%- . $1
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4% . $0.6
$10
, $0.4
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$0.6
. $0.6
.
.
.
5: ABC XYZ
. ABC
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, XYZ . XYZ FIFO .
, ?
.
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.
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. -
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.
Daimler-Benz AG (Mercedes Benz- ) 1993
- .
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1993
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.
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Speidell Bavishi8
.
18.2- P/E-
. .
Lawrence S. Speidell Vinod Bavishi GAAP :
, , 1112 , 1992, 58-66
9
W.C. Norby
, 3-4 , 1983
8
1980 33-
(FASB 33).
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.
FASB 33
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.
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Daimler
,
7
,
Richard Breedon
. Breeden-
Daimler Benz
.
3 24 Daimler
.
Daimler
,
.
.
,
.
. Daimler
.
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-
.
Daimler 1992
DM4 ($2.5
)- .
. Daimler,
,
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Daimler-
.
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20
30
40
50
60
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1976 10:
.
-
.
:
.
.
.:
10
Money Masters (New York: Harper & Row, 1987)- John Train
,
.
30
20% .1950-
. 1973-1974
. 1976 100 S & P
- 10%
.
.
// .
2 : Standard &
Poors Value Line
.
1.
.
.
2. ROE
. ROE .
ROE
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3. ROE
. :
ROE =
4. /
,
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, .
6. ROE
ROE
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,
:
Cottle, S.: R.Murray; and F. Block, Graham Dodd- .
-, McGraw Hill8 1988
d.
5. : *
a. X
b. X X
/
c. + +
d. +
i.
ii.
iii. b
iv. b d
6. Seattle 1991
( 18
18B). **
*
1988 CFA-
www.zaluu.com
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. Copyright 1988. The Institute of Chartered Financial Analysis Charlottesvillem
VA All right reserved.
1987 CFA-
. Copyright 1988. The Institute of Chartered Financial Analysis Charlottesvillem
VA All right reserved.
**
18A Seattle . .
12 31 ( )
, $10- , 4
3 2,680,000
, 8%, $25-
, 1 600,000
a)
b)
c)
d)
1990
1991
6.2
6.6
20.8
15.0
77.0
251.2
1.4
356.6
181.4
6.2
$ 544.2
93.2
286.0
1.8
402.6
215.6
9.8
$ 628.0
$ 143.2
13.0
12.0
18.8
10.8
$ 197.8
86.4
140.8
$ 425.0
$ 161.0
14.4
16.6
22.6
9.8
$ 224.4
107.0
165.8
$ 497.2
26.8
30.0
15.0
15.0
26.4
51.0
119.2
$ 544.2
27.0
58.8
130.8
$ 628.0
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e)
f)
18
$ 1,166.6
12.8
1,179.4
$ 912.0
43.6
118.4
16.2
1,090.2
$
89.2
19.2
$
70.0
1991
$ 1,207.6
15.6
1,223.2
$ 961.2
48.6
128.8
19.8
1,158.4
$
64.8
10.4
$
54.4
1988 CFA-
. Copyright 1988. The Institute of Chartered Financial Analysis Charlottesvillem
VA All right reserved.
1987 CFA-
. Copyright 1988. The Institute of Chartered Financial Analysis Charlottesvillem
VA All right reserved.
9. Philips Morris
.
Marlboro, Benson & Hedges, Kraft, Kool-Aid, Jell-O, Miller, Maxwell
House .
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,
.
Philips Morris
.
18C Chicago Refrigerator Inc- , 12 31-
( $)
1990
1991
1$- 1
550.000 829.000
25 $- , 10% 25.000
. 20.000
18.000
683
1,490
1,415
15
3,603
325
3,599
2,423
13
6,360
1,066
1,541
123
$ 4,792
157
$ 8,058
$ -38
485
588
576
34
1,721
122
81
$ 1,924
550
500
450
1,368
$ 2,868
$ 4,792
875
116
933
472
586
963
3,945
179
131
$ 4,255
829
450
575
1,949
$ 3,803
$ 8,058
Philips Morris
.
- .
www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com
- Philip Morris
.
, .
18D Chicago Refrigerator Inc. . 12
31 ( $-)
1990
$ 7,570
261
7,831
$ 4,850
1,531
22
6,403
$ 1,428
28
$
800
1991
$ 12,065
345
12,410
$ 8,048
2,025
78
10,151
$ 2,259
994
$ 1,265
Philip Morris
(
.)
. ,
.
.
Philip Morris LIFO
.
Goodwill 40
. 1991 1
FAS106 (
)
. 1991
1.854 $ . 18. G
.
a. Du Pont Philip Morris- 1981, 1991
.
.
b. - 1981 1991
ROE .
c. 1981 Philip Morris-
(ROE x b) . 1981-1991
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www.zaluu.com
20.4%. 19811991
?
18E Philip Morris 12 31-
(
)
1990
1991
3.1
2.9
3.3
--
38.5
125.6
.7
$ 170.8
46.6
143.0
.9
$ 193.8
$ 90.7
3.1
$ 264.6
$ 107.8
4.9
$ 306.5
$ 71.6
6.5
6.0
9.4
5.4
$ 98.9
$ 43.2
70.4
$ 212.5
$ 81.7
6.0
8.3
11.3
4.9
$ 112.2
$ 53.5
82.9
$ 248.6
13.4
13.2
25.5
52.1
$ 264.6
15.0
13.5
29.4
57.9
$ 306.5
10$- 2
1340.000 1500.000
www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com
d.
18F
Atlas , 12
31 ( $ -)
1990
$ 583.3
6.4
589.7
456.0
21.8
59.2
8.1
545.1
44.6
9.6
$ 35.0
1991
$ 603.8
2.8
606.6
475.6
24.3
64.4
9.9
574.2
32.4
5.2
$ 27.2
www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com
Philip Morris:
()
S&P 500 :
1990
1981
$ 56,458
25,612
8,394
$ 22,452
13,830
$ 8,622
1,651
$ 6,971
3,044
$ 3,927
$ 4.24
$ 1.91
$ 10,866
5,253
2,580
$ 3,053
1,741
$ 1,312
232
$ 1,080
420
$
660
$ 0.66
$ 0.25
$ 12,594
9,946
18,624
6,220
$ 47,384
$ 11,824
14,213
1,803
7,032
12,512
$ 47,384
$ 3,733
3,583
634
1,230
$ 9,180
$ 1,936
3,499
455
56
3,234
$ 9,180
920
$ 80.250
1.003
$ 6.125
417.09
16.29
161.08
122.55
15.36
109.43
www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com
b.
c.
d.
18H
1992
1995
$ 542
38
3
3
32
13
19
$ 41
245
123
16
159
$ 979
76
9
0
67
37
30
$ 70
291
157
0
220
16.
__________________ .
a.
b.
c.
d.
17.
? ( )
.
b.
c.
d.
18. Du Pont
.
www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com
18 H
a. 1992 1995
.
ROE- 1992 1995
b. 1992 1995 ROE-