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.


.
26

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.
, ,
.
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1982 Goodyear
.
1982
:

1981

$83
1312
1270
85
2750
2230
213
$5194

$72
1204
1514
67
2857
2264
233
$5354

1174
1037
525

1330
1158
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2457
$5194

$8689
6756
1300
19
652
191
213
$248

$239
1754
2588
5325
3794
73.933
$3.35
1.40
35
7239

2375
$5354

Goodyear Tire & Rubber ( $-)

.


.

. Goodyear- :
+

=
+ +
1037
=

= .30
1037 + 2457

:
+ .

1037
=

= .42
2457

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.


.
.

.

.
-

5194 - 2457
=

= .53
5194

. :
.

1 .

.
.


()
. Goodyear- :
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652 + 239
=

= 4.7
191

. .

.

.

.


.
.

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.
(EBITt+1 EBIT t)
=
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.
.
.

.
.


.

.
.




.

2750 1174
=

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=

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1174

.
:
.
.

.
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.
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2750 - 1270

=1.3
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.
:
+

83
=

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1174

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=
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.

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.)

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.

8689
=

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=

= 1.6
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-
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=

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8689

6756
=

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.


.

=

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(1312 + 1204) 2
53

=
8689 365

.

.

.
-

=

652 - 213
=

= .083 (8.3%)
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=

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.

.
.
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. .



.


.
.


. Goodyear :

1.40

= 0.42
3.35

16.2
.
.
,
.


.
.
= 1 -
-
=

.
- =
-
=

= .58 x .103 = .060 (6%)

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Goodyear- 10.3%-
6% .

. :

.

. 4
.


.

35
=

= 10.4
3.35

.
4
.

:
DIV1
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2.
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. Goodyear- :

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=

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35

DIV1
=

=r-g
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.



. Goodyear- :
-
-

35
=

= 1.06
2457 73.933

. Goodyear-
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.
Tobins q

,
Tobins q- .
Goodyear- :

q=

5325
=

= .74
7239

10

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. q

.

.

. Goodyear

.
Tobin- q 1-
1
. 1-
.

.

. q

. 25-2 .
q
.

.

Benchmark-

.
. : 25-2
1982
.
Goodyear-

. Goodyear

. 1982

28 . 1982

94 . Goodyear-

Goodyear-
.
HIGH qs

LOW qs

11

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com
Avon Products
8.53
Cone Mills
Polaroid
6.42
Holly Sugar
Xerox
5.52
Federal Paper Board
Searle
5.27
National Steel
MMM
4.87
Graniteville
Schering-Plough
4.30
Publicker Industries
IBM
4.21
Medusa Corp.
Coca-Cola
4.21
Lowenstein
Smithkline
4.19
U.S.Steel
Eli Lilly
4.02
Dan River
25-2 Tobins q- 1960-1977.

.45
.50
.52
.53
.55
.59
.60
.61
.62
.67

. 25-3 3-

. .
GOODYEAR

1982

1982

1977-1981

:

-

.30
.53
4.7

.37
.58
4.0

.31
.55
2.6

:


-

()

.30
2.3
1.3
.07
67

.28
2.1
1.0
.06
64

.23
1.9
1.1
.25
75

1.6
5.6
5.1
4.9
53
8.3
10.3

1.6
5.7
5.1
4.2
51
7.9
9.7

1.3
5.5
2.6
5.2
56
3.5
0.6

:


(%-)

t
(%-)
(%-)

- :
10.4
5.7
-

4.0
7.8
4.1

1.1
.5
0.7
-
Tobins q
.74
-
.64
25-3 Goodyear

.


.
12

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

, .

-


-

0.35
0.16
1.61
0.90
0.96
0.04
6.53
0.04
0.09
0.58

0.35
0.15
1.56
0.82
1.94
0.03
9.18
0.05
0.13
0.44

0.36
0.14
1.59
0.66
0.77
0.11
3.44
0.09
0.19
0.39

0.39
0.15
1.91
1.16
1.17
0.03
8.62
0.04
0.05
0.76

0.37
0.20
1.81
1.40
1.43
0.05
12.75
0.07
0.14
0.40

.053
0.14
1.66
0.85
1.04
-0.02
6.16
-0.02
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0.28
0.22
1.65
0.93
1.26
0.04
4.73
0.05
0.12
0.46

0.43
0.21
1.73
0.79
2.42
0.03
8.35
0.07
0.11
0.43

25-4 1982

25-4 Dun and Bradstreet Robert Moris

1.0
.8
-.6
-.4
-.3
-.1
-.3
-.1

1.0
-.6
-.6
-.5
-.2
-.4
-.1

1.0
.3
.3
.1
.9
.6

1.0
.7
.2
.2
.0

1.0
.5
.3
.1

1.0
.1
.1

1.0
.8

1.0

--
-

--

.
25-5

9 .
,


.
.

13

www.zaluu.com
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.1
.1
.2
-.4
.0
-.2
.2
-
25-5 1975

.3

1.0

25-2
25-1 Goodyear- 10
. Goodyear-
? Goodyear

. 25-6 Goodyear- 27

.
25-1 Goodyear- -

.
.
: 1978, 1980,
1982 ?

14

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

-




-
-

25-6

-
(%)
45
37
35
34
33
31
29
27
23
22
22
20
16
15
13
12
5
27

- (%)
10
42
52
26
28
49
27
5
12
29
9
16
20
1
31
15
51
18

Goodyear-


.
Goodyear-

.



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.
.

.
.

. 12

.

15

www.zaluu.com
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6
.

2 .
.

.


.


.

.
.


.
( )
.

.
.


. :

,
.
.

16

www.zaluu.com
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.

.
1- 1000 300$-
6 .
6%- 6
3001.06=318$- .
18$-
. .

.
.
3
.

.
.

.


.

.
25-3

.

.
.
W.Beaver 79

.

.
.
.

17

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com
25-2

.
28
.

9
.


.
.

.
Beaver, Kettler, Scholes
.

1%-

1%-
.
25-7


.
Rosenberg, Marathe

.

18

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

19

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

Moody- yardstick .

.
.
J. Horrigan 257
.

25-7

1947 1956
.44
.23
-.49
-.06
.27
-.13

1957 1965

.23
.22
-.29
-.16
.01
.05

.
. J.Horrigan

Moody- 58%- .
25-4


. ,
, ,
.
.
1.
.
2. .

.
3. .
4. Benchmark-

.

, ,
.

20

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.
3 .

,


.

21

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

26-

.

.

.
10

.
.
.

.
.

,
.

.


.


.

.
26-1

: Burmah-
1974 12 Burmah Oil
.
Burmah- .

.

22

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com
1960- Burmah
British Petroleum
. 1974 Burmah
,
, British
Petroleum- .
Burmah
. British Petroleum-
. 1974 Chase Manhattan
420
. Burmah

Signal Corporation-
. Burmah

.
24
.
1974
.
.
1929
. 10 British
Petroleum- 49%- .
Burmah- British
Petroleum . Burmah

.
.

British Petroleum-
. 1,5
.
British Petroleum- Burmah-
. Burmah- 30%

. Burmah
1973 1974
1974 5 .
Middle Eastern crude oil- 1973
.
. 12
75%- . 1974 12 Bussiness
week
, Burmah- .
Burmah .
.

23

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com


. Burmah-


.
.
Burmah British Petroleum-
.
2,3 78
British Petroeum- , Burmah- 650
, 75
.
Burmah
.

Burmah
.
.

. Burmah
420 BP-

.

. Burmah-
- ,

. .

.
.
Burmah-
.
1.
.
.
2.
. .
Burmah-
.


.

24

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?
Burmah-
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?
.
:
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2.

3. ,

4. ,
.
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12 .
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, .
2.

.
3.
,
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25

www.zaluu.com
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4
.
4.

4
.

. 1978 3
757
767 2
.
26-2

.
.

.

.

,

.
.

.

(
, ,
) .

,
,
.

26

www.zaluu.com
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.
.

.

.

.

. ,

.

.

.

.

. . 1970-

.
.

.

2

2
.

.
.
,
.
.
Data Resources, Inc

27

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com
Chase Econometrics-
.
.

.

,
. :

.

.
,
,
.
.


.
.
. .
.
. Brealey and
Myers- 3 .

.
.
.
10- .
. 10
.

10 .

. :
16
.

.
.

28

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

.
.
.

.

.
20
.
3
.

.
,
.
.


.
26-3


.

.

.
,
.


.

Executive Fruits-
26-1 1983 Executive Fruits
.
10% 400
9%- 90
. 60%-
.

29

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com


. 64
.
40%- .
1984 Executive Fruits-
.
1983 30
.
.
9%, 60%-

30%-
.

(REV)
(CGS)

(INT)

50% (TAX)
(NET)

2160
1944
216
36
180
90
90

(NET)
(DEP)

(D)
(SI)

90
80
170
0
64
234

(NWC)
(INV)
(DIV)

40
140
54
234

(NWC)
(FA)


(D)
(E)

1983
200
800
1000

1982
160
740
900

+40
+60
+100

400
600

400
500

0
+100

30

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com
1000
900

26-1 Excutive Fruit 1983

+100

26-
.
23 111000

404000
.

(REV)
(CGS)

(INT)

50% (TAX)
(NET)

2808
2527
281
59
222
111
111

(NET)
(DEP)

(D)
(SI)

(NWC)
(INV)
(DIV)


1983

260
(NWC)
1040
(FA)
1300


(D)

655.6

(+30%)

(+23%)

111
104
215
255.6
0
470.6
60
344
66.6
470.6

(+30%)

1982
200
800
1000

+60
+240
+300

400

+255.6

31

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com
644.4
600
(E)
1300.0
1000

26-2 Excutive Fruit 1984

+44.4
+300.0

Executive Fruits
255600
. 50
4,8
. (
231:59=4,9)
26-2 .
4
. (
25-30 ),
( 1983 54
) .

.
26-3 Executive Fruits- 15
. 26-1 26-2-
. 6 Executive
Fruits-
.
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)

(12)
(13)
(14)
(15)

REV=
CGS=a1REV
INT= a2D
(a2= )
TAX= a3(REV-CGS-INT)
(a3= )
NET=REV-CGS-INT-TAX
( )

DEP=a4FA
( )
D=NWC+INV+DIV-NET-DEP-SI
SI=
( )
NWC=NWC-NWC(-1)
INV=DEP+FA(-1)
( )
DIV= a5NET
(a5=
)

NWC=a6REV
FA=a7REV
( )
D=D+D(-1)
E=E(-1)+NET-DIV+SI
( )

: 1 8
, . 2, 12, 13
,
,
. (3) , (4)

32

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com
, (6) , (11)
.
8 :
(REV), (SI) 1- 7
7 . 5 26.2-
60%-
. 5 =0,6 .
26.4
REV, SI 1- 7 26.2
.
.

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)

(12)
(13)
(14)
(15)
26-4

REV= =2808
CGS=0.9 REV=0.9(2808)=2527
INT=0.09D=0.09(655.6)=59
TAX= 0.5(REV-CGS-INT)=0.5(2808-2527-59)=111
NET=REV-CGS-INT-TAX=2808-2527-59-111=111

(a1=0.9)
(a2=0.09)
(a3=0.5)

DEP=0.1 FA=0.1(1040)=104
(a4=0.1)
D=NWC+INV+DIV-NET-DEP-SI
=60+344+66.6-111-104-0=255.6
SI= 0
NWC=NWC-NWC(-1) =260-200=60
INV=DEP+FA(-1) =104+1040-800=344
(a5=0.6)
DIV= 0.6NET=0.6(111)=66.6

NWC=0.093REV=0.093(2808)=260
FA=0.37REV=0.37(2808)=1040
D=D+D(-1) =255.6+400=655.6
E=E(-1)+NET-DIV+SI=600+111-66.6+0=644.4

(a6=0.093)
(a7=0.37)

Executive Fruits- .


.
.


.

.
,
, .

33

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com
Executive Fruits-
.

?

.
.
.
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.
.

.
Brealey and Myers-

.

.

.

.
26-4

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..

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34

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1.
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2.

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5
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35

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com


.
= ( )
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:
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.
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36

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x=0.8+y
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40%- .
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37

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DIV SI
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SI-
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100

.
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.
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38

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.

.
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20% .
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y0.4x1+0.2 x2
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.
.


. 5 .
1 -5
.

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39

www.zaluu.com
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:

-0.1 x1+0.12x2
+c1y1++c2y2++c5y5
+a1DIV1++a2DIV2++a5DIV5
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DIV 0
DIV2DIV1
DIV3DIV2
DIV4DIV3
DIV5DIV4

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40

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0 .
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10% .

:

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41

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y0.4x
x+DIV0.5+y+SI
x=1, y=0.4, DIV=0 SI=0.1

100000$- .
:

(x1)
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19
.

42

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27-



.
2 . 1-
. 2-

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.
: 60 50 50
20 .
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.
20 1-
3- .
.
20

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5. 10
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43

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27-1

45.2
41.5
231.7
289.4
50.0
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.
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