Interim Manpower Survey

International Shipping Federation

Interim Manpower Survey

In 2005, ISF and BIMCO conducted a comprehensive manpower update for the worldwide supply and demand of seafarers. A full update will be conducted in 2010. In the summer of 2008, we reached the mid-point between the 2005 update and the proposed 2010 update. The ISF Manning and Training Committee agreed that it was an appropriate time for ISF to conduct a mini survey in order to gain an approximate feel for any changes which have taken place regarding manpower supply and recruitment since the last full update was conducted. Survey results from ISF member national associations are not scientic, but nevertheless provide a snapshot of the current situation.

ISF/BIMCO Surveys - a history

The rst study, conducted in 1990, helped to encourage improved recruitment levels and government initiatives to promote training. It also focused attention on manpower issues and the inherent danger of serious shortages of competent ofcers, providing the impetus for the revision of the IMO Convention on Standards of Training, Certication and Watchkeeping for Seafarers (STCW) in 1995. The survey was updated in 1995. It showed a 4% global shortage of ofcers and an oversupply of ratings. Neither were as severe as predicted, principally due to a slower expansion of the world eet. Nevertheless, training initiatives appeared to peak in 1993 and then tailed off, indicating the shortage would not be compensated by new entrants. In 2000, the survey continued to show a 4% shortage of ofcers and a surplus of ratings. A prediction was made that unless changes were implemented this shortage would worsen to 12% by 2010. The report suggested that recruitment was improving, but needed to accelerate. The average age of senior ofcers was also of concern as it indicated that many OECD ofcers retired earlier than expected at the age of 50, and were not being replaced by seafarers from the Indian sub-continent or the Far East. The last BIMCO/ISF Study conducted in 2005 predicted a shortfall of 10,000 ofcers (2% of the total workforce). It also stated that there was a signicant overall surplus of ratings, although doubts existed as to how many were available for international service. While the shortfall of ofcers was smaller than estimated in 2000, certain sectors of the industry have experienced very severe shortages, and the continuing growth of the world eet, combined with work pressures on crews, indicated that demand for qualied seafarers would continue to increase over the next decade. This demand would only be met if the increase in levels of recruitment and training were maintained and wastage rates reduced.

2005 manpower update

Supply Ofcers Ratings 466,000 721,000 Demand 476,000 586,000 Balance -10,000 135,000

Summary of Results
The following results are based on replies to a questionnaire sent to ISF national shipowner associations during the summer of 2008. It requested information on, amongst other issues, how the situation concerning national seafarers supply/demand had changed since the last major manpower update was conducted in 2005. 24 responses were received from:- Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Chile, Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Isle Of Man, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Pakistan, Philippines, Sweden, United Kingdom and the USA.

1 Has the supply of the national seafarers increased, decreased or stayed the same compared to the situation in 2005?

2 Has your demand for national seafarers increased, decreased or stayed the same compared to the situation at the end of 2005?

16.67 Increased 25 Increased

41.67 75

37.50 Decreased 58.33 Decreased

16.67 12.50

45.83 Stayed more or less the same 0 %

Ofcers

16.67 10 20 30 40 50 60 %

Stayed more or less the same

41.67 12.50 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Ratings

Ofcers

Ratings

58.3% of respondents believed that the supply of ofcers had decreased, whilst 25% believed it had increased, and the remainder felt supply had stayed the same. At the same time, demand for ofcers had increased for 75% of respondents. 37.5% of respondents believed that the supply of ratings had decreased whilst 16.7% believed it had increased, and the remainder felt supply had stayed the same. At the same time, demand for ratings had also increased for 42% of respondents.

3 At the current time (i.e. early 2008) is there a surplus or a shortage of national seafarers or does supply equal demand?

4 If there is a shortage of Ofcers at the current time, in which particular grades are there shortages amongst your national seafarer population?
No officer shortages 4.17 50.00 87.50 70.83 45.83 75.00 54.17 0 % 20 40 60 80 100

16.67

Serious shortage

50 33.33

Junior engineers
37.5

Moderate shortage

Second engineers Chief engineers

Large surplus

4.17

Moderate Surplus
45.83 12.5

Junior deck officers Chief officers

Supply more or less equals demand 0 %

Ofcers

Masters
20 30 40 50

10

Ratings

50% of respondents stated that there was a serious shortage of ofcers and 37.5% stated they believed there was a moderate shortage, the remaining 12.5% believe that supply more or less equaled demand. 17% of respondents stated that there was a serious shortage of ratings and 33% stated they believed there was a moderate shortage. The vast majority of respondees reported difculties in recruiting Second Engineers (87.5%). There was also a major problem in recruiting Chief Ofcers (75%) and Chief Engineers (71%).

5 Do you think the average age of your national Ofcers has increased, decreased or stayed the same since the end of 2005?
70.83 Increased 20.83 58.33 4.17 Decreased 4.17 Stayed more or less the same 25.00 62.50 29.17 16.67

Problems identied by Members were:

O

There is an insufcient number of applicants of the required quality. There is insufcient funding on a national basis. With respect to national ofcer cadets there are an insufcient number of berths available on board ships, and particularly training berths.

O O

In addition the following comments were received from ISF members which reected the different challenges faced:
O

No response 8.33 0 %
all Ofcers

10

20

30

40 %

50

60

70

80

Insufcient number of applicants of required quality (a key concern). Awareness needs to be raised to attract youngsters interest in a career at sea. Particular problems in the recruitment of engineering cadets. Shortage of engineers of all ranks, with a high age prole. Registered training organisations have limited course places due to teaching staff shortages. Insufcient long-term recruitment planning amongst companies. High turnover of the employees within the industry.

junior ofcers

senior ofcers

There is a perception that the average age of ofcers on board ship has increased, with 58% of respondents reporting a rise in the average age for all ofcers. This upward trend is particularly marked in the case of senior ofcers, with 71% of respondents reporting an increase. In contrast, the average age of junior ofcers is believed to have changed very little since the end of 2005; 63% of respondents reported that the average age of this group had stayed more or less the same.

6 percentage of ISF Members reporting changes in cadet recruitment levels since 2005

Stayed the same National Cadet entries

50

Decreased

12.5

Increased

37.5

0 %

10

20

30

40

50

37.5% of members had increased the number of cadet entrants while 50% maintained the same numbers. More needs to be done to increase further the number of cadet entrants. However it was encouraging to note that 62.5% of members believed that the numbers of cadets engaged in 2009 would increase.

Conclusion
These results are based on expert opinions rather than on actual numbers of seafarers. They only concern national seafarers and do not take account of seafarers residing in one country but working in the industry of another. Nevertheless, this update provides useful expert opinions from those close to the manpower situation. The following conclusions may be drawn:O

There is evidence that the surplus of Ratings is gradually reducing, as demand has increased and it is conceived there is no longer a large surplus. The age prole of Ofcers and particularly Senior Ofcers has increased, which will cause a problem when these individuals choose to retire. It is evident that this shortage of Senior Ofcers is of concern.

Recruitment problems are mainly attributable to a lack of awareness of a seafaring career, inability to attract quality applicants and limited training berths.

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Established in 1909, the International Shipping Federation (ISF) is the international employers organisation for the shipping industry. Its interests include labour affairs, manpower and training, and seafarers welfare issues. ISF membership comprises of national shipowners associations from 31 countries. ISF, with its national shipowner association members from Eastern and Western Europe, the Indian Sub-Continent, the Asia/Pacic Region, the Middle East and North, Central and South America, provides a unique forum for employers to co-ordinate effectively and inuence events on maritime human resources issues.

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