Foster M cCollum W hite & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

Michigan 13th Congressional District Democratic Primary Election Polling Study conducted Exclusively for Fox 2 News

Automated Poll Methodology and Statistics Key Findings Aggregate and Cross Tabular Report

July 21 and 22, 2012

Conducted by Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B

Foster M cCollum W hite & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

Methodology
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Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B , a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely August 2012 primary election voters in the 13th congressional district to determine their voting and issue preferences on the Democratic Congressional nomination, the impact of losing congressional representation from Detroit and the impact of losing African American or minority congressional representation. This nine question automated poll survey was conducted on July 21 and July 22, 2012 A list-based sample of traditional Michigan high participation registered voters and voters that fit Michigan Presidential election patterns was used for this study. The majority of these voters have participated in a significant majority of the available primary and general election and odd year municipal and county elections in Michigan since their registration. Additionally, our call file does allow for random moderate and low participation voters to be included in the sample. Our call file was randomized to allow for the maximum participation range. An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the August Primary Election. Thirty-six thousand seven hundred and seventy-one (36,771) adults were called, and 643 respondents participated in the survey. The response rate for this survey was 1.77%. Our list-based sample pool was pre-weighted to the geographical regions and political participation regions and the congressional districts in Michigan. For reporting purposes, we will focus our findings on the following issue-based categories: A. Baseline for 13th congressional district Democratic primary nomination preference. B. Impact of potentially losing congressional representation from the city of Detroit. C. Impact of potentially losing African American or minority congressional representation from Michigan.

The margin of error for this polling sample is 3.84% with a confidence level of 95%. Our polling study produced sub-populations within each of the surveyed election contest. Results within the sub-populations will be reported with respect to the individual cross-tab and subpopulation group as it exist.

Foster M cCollum W hite & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

Key Findings Analysis

Our polling study reflects a strong likelihood for current Detroit congressman John Conyers to retain his congressional seat. In doing that, he would maintain representation from Detroit and Minority representation from Michigan. We ballot-tested all five candidates for the Michigan 13th Congressional District Democratic Primary. The winner of the Democratic primary in southeastern Michigan Congressional campaigns traditionally wins the November general election, so the Democratic primary is comparable to a general election contest. We found that Congressman Conyers has a significant lead over all five candidates, who also are elected officials themselves. Conyers leads State Senator Glenn Anderson 48.21% to 20.68%, a 27.53 point margin, with 22.24% of the respondents being undecided. The overall results for all five candidates are listed below: The 2012 Michigan 13th Congressional District Democratic Primary election will be held in August. Who are you most likely to vote for in the primary for US House of Representatives? (Current Democratic Congressman John Conyers): (State Senator Glenn Anderson): (State Senator Bert Johnson): (State Representative Shanelle Jackson): (Westland School Board member John Goci): (Undecided): 48.21% 20.68% 2.33% 4.51% 2.02% 22.24%

Foster M cCollum W hite & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

Despite heavy anti- incumbent sentiment across the country and within Michigan, Congressman Conyers is benefiting from a wide cross section of support outside of his traditional Detroit voting base. The respondent base is broad across demographic (50.39% African American and 49.61% non African American), union versus non union households (45.24% Union households versus 54.29% non union households) and geographical area (49.46% Detroit respondents and 50.54% other 11 represented cities respondents). While Senator Glenn Anderson is the strongest challenger to Congressman Conyers, to win, he would have to erase a huge margin in a limited amount of time. Our data findings do show two clear factors that are not hurting the top two contenders: Wayne-Westland school board member John Goci isnt impacting Senator Andersons support in the Western Wayne region and the other 11 cities in the 13th Congressional district. Goci only has 2.02% voter support across the district. State Representative Shanelle Jackson and State Senator Bert Johnson are not dividing the Detroit or African American voter base enough to defeat Congressman Conyers or help their candidacies. Both candidates are only receiving a combined 6.84% of support among respondents.

While Congressman Conyers voter support base is probably lower than expected for someone with his 48 years of electoral success, the findings suggest that the other candidates have not yet been successful in communicating a compelling reason as to why Conyers needs to be replaced. This may be due to a deficiency in campaign messaging and voter analytics strategy. Additionally, we tested the potential impact of losing Detroit-based and African American/Minority representation in Congress and its importance in the consideration of respondents. We found that maintaining Detroit based and African American/minority representation is critically important to the voters across the 13 th Congressional district. Seventy-two and fifty- nine hundredths percent (72.59%) of the respondents feel that it is important to maintain Detroit based representation in Congress while only 21.81% felt it was an unimportant consideration. We also found that 70.72% of the respondents feel that is important to maintain African American or Minority representation in Congress while only 24.45% felt that is was an unimportant consideration.

Foster M cCollum W hite & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

Beyond our aggregate data findings, we will highlight significant statistical findings per category from our cross tabulation data. The defined cross tabs that we will be reporting on include:
Age Gender Race/Ethnicity Religious affiliation Evangelical Christian, Catholic, Baptist, Non Evangelical Christian, Jewish, Muslim and other religious affiliations Voter Political Party Preference Democratic, Republican and Independent Union Household versus Non Union Household 13 th Congressional District Geographical Voter Regions (Western Wayne, Downriver, Near Detroit Suburbs, Detroit) Major 14 Wayne County Cities cluster Non Detroit Other 28 Wayne County Cities cluster Impact of potentially losing congressional representation from the city of Detroit question Impact of potentially losing African American or minority congressional representation from Michigan

FMWB deploys a pre-determined model for determining the scientific and statistical importance of a tabular variance. We use a Bivariate Analysis model to evaluate our tabular variance that is compared against the aggregate universe. We believe these categories will provide a solid data roadmap for the analysis of the 13 Congressional District election and the likelihood of retaining Congressman John Conyers and Detroit-based African American representation in Congress.
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A. Congressman John Conyers positive cross tabular results. Our findings reflect a broad range of support for Congressman Conyers across a majority of the cross tabular groups. In assessing voter support for Congressman Conyers, we conducted a deeper analysis of our cross tabulation groups to identify positive trending factors. While most of our cross tabulation groups are constant with our aggregate universe, we identified a number of significant variances. Congressman Conyers positive voter tabular variances are as follows:

Foster M cCollum W hite & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

Cross Tab Grouping Self identified Male Respondents Self identified Female Respondents Ages 18 to 30 Ages 31-50 Ages 51 to 65 Ages 66 & older Democrats Self identified African American Respondents Self identified Multi Racial American Respondents Self identified Evangelical Christian Respondents Self identified Baptist Respondents Self identified NonEvangelical Christian Respondents Self identified Other or Non religious affiliation Respondents Detroit region Respondents

John Conye rs 43.04%

Glenn Ande rson 26.16%

Undecided 22.36%

Shanelle Jackson 3.80%

Bert Johnson 2.11%

John Goci 2.53%

51.75%

17.50%

21.75%

5.00%

2.25%

1.75%

70.97% 39.19% 53.78% 43.81% 55.11% 68.94%

6.45% 22.97% 19.33% 22.74% 18.88% 4.04%

9.68% 25.68% 19.75% 24.41% 17.92% 17.70%

9.68% 8.11% 3.36% 4.01% 4.82% 5.28%

0% 1.35% 2.52% 2.68% 2.31% 3.11%

3.23% 2.70% 1.26% 2.34% 0.96% 0.62%

45.00%

5.00%

35.00%

7.50%

5.00%

2.50%

50.00%

16.67%

25.00%

4.76%

2.38%

1.19%

62.28%

7.89%

19.30%

5.70%

3.95%

0.88%

49.43%

20.69%

21.84%

3.45%

2.30%

2.30%

41.48%

26.47%

27.94%

4.41%

0%

0%

65.00%

1.88%

21.88%

7.81%

2.81%

0.63%

Foster M cCollum W hite & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

Downriver Region Respondents Self identified Union households Self identified Non-Union households Maintaining Detroit Representation is important Respondents Maintaining African American Representation is important Respondents Other 28 Wayne County Cities Respondents

57.14%

0%

33.33%

4.76%

0%

4.76%

52.41%

21.38%

17.93%

4.83%

1.38%

2.07%

44.96%

20.17%

25.36%

4.32%

3.17%

2.02%

62.45%

12.02%

16.74%

5.58%

2.36%

0.86%

62.56%

11.98%

16.96%

5.51%

2.20%

0.88%

43.55%

22.58%

26.61%

1.61%

4.03%

1.61%

Congressman Conyers strongest pockets of support are within the following groups: Self identified voters ages 18 to 30 years old. Self identified Democratic voters. African American voters. Self identified Baptist voters. City of Detroit voters. Downriver communities (Melvindale, Ecorse & River Rogue) voters. Voters who feel it is important to maintain Detroit and African American/Minority representation in Congress. The data suggests that Representative Jackson and Senator Johnson have not neither been able to either connect with voters that have been their base in past elections nor communicated a clear message to sway these voter bases away from Congressman Conyers. Many have noted that Congressman Conyers has had challenges over the past few years (Monica Conyers, use of congressional vehicle, ethics issues) and has not brought home federal investment in his district
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Foster M cCollum W hite & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

in ways that have improved the economics of the district or region. An additional factor that could have posed a problem for the incumbent was the fact that the non-Detroit African American community could react negatively to Detroit congressional representation because of the challenges within the City of Detroit. Despite these challenges, the data suggest that the areas of the electorate in which Conyers is over-performing may also be due to a lack of confidence in the other candidates. What is additionally surprising is the lack of impact that Senator Anderson is having on the City of Detroit, Union households and the other 28 city cluster group within the 13th Congressional district. Twenty and eleven hundredths percent (20.11%) of the Detroits most likely voter population for the Congressional district primary is non African American and Anderson is only receiving 1.88% of that vote. His campaign has missed a strong opportunity to capitalize on the diversity of the electorate in the City of Detroit. Additionally, Senator Anderson is underperforming with union households. Congressman Conyers is leading Senator Anderson among Union households by a margin of 52.41% to 21.38%, or 31.03 percentage points. Anderson is a former active UAW member, and support among union voters would be key to defeating Conyers. B. Senator Glenn Andersons positive cross tabular groupings: Our findings reflect some significant pockets of support for Senator Anderson within the cross tabular groups. Our data also finds opportunities that Senator Anderson must improve upon in order to increase his chances in the primary. In assessing voter support for Senator Anderson, we conducted a deeper analysis of our cross tabulation groups to identify additional positive trending factors. While most of our cross tabulation groups are consistent with our aggregate universe, we identified a number of significant variances. Andersons positive voter tabular variances are as follows: Cross Tab Grouping Self identified Republican Respondents Self identified Independents Respondents White Self identified Respondents John Conye rs 2.50% Glenn Ande rson 32.50% Undecided 52.50% Shanelle Jackson 2.50% Bert Johnson 0.00% John Goci 10.00%

28.40%

25.93%

33.33%

3.70%

3.70%

4.94%

22.22%

47.01%

23.50%

2.14%

1.28%

3.85%

Foster M cCollum W hite & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

Self Identified Catholic Respondents Western Wayne Region Respondents Maintaining Detroit Representation is not important Respondents Maintaining African American Representation is not important Respondents Major 14 Wayne County Cities Respondents

29.79%

41.13%

19.86%

2.84%

1.42%

4.96%

28.52%

43.64%

21.99%

1.03%

1.37%

3.44%

10.07%

46.04%

33.09%

1.44%

2.88%

6.47%

13.46%

46.15%

29.49%

1.92%

3.21%

5.77%

24.12%

49.75%

20.10%

1.01%

0.50%

4.52%

Senator Andersons strongest pockets of support are within the following groups: Self identified Catholic voters. White American voters. Major 14 cities cluster (Westland, Redford & Dearborn Heights) voters. Western Wayne Region communities (Westland, Redford, Dearborn Heights, Garden City, Inkster, Romulus & Wayne) voters. Voters who feel it is not important to maintain Detroit and African American/Minority representation in Congress. Despite Senator Andersons bases of support, the data suggests that he hasnt built a strong enough base to counter his deficiencies in Congressman Conyers larger voter bases. Senator Anderson has not achieved 50% in any of his favorable cross tabular groupings while Congressman Conyers has achieved over 50% support in 12 of his favorable cross tabular groupings. If Senator Anderson is to be more competitive, he needs to increase his margins in all of his favorable cross tabular groups and have a higher percentage of Republican and Independent voters skip their prima ry and vote in the Democratic primary. Republican self identified respondents were 6.25% of our

Foster M cCollum W hite & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

respondent universe, but are projected to constitute 27.73% of the 11 non-Detroit represented municipalities August primary votes. Senator Anderson must increase the interest of those voters to skip their primary and vote in the Democratic contest. C. Importance of maintaining Detroit based Congressional representation We asked respondents for their feelings on the impact of redistricting and the potential loss of an elected member of Congress from Detroit. The local, state and national implications would be tremendous if the largest community in Michigan and one of the 20 largest cities in America did not have an elected member of Congress from its borders. Detroit has also been rocked with political scandals, fiscal crisis and the need for State intervention in the operations of the City government and the school system. We wanted to determine if voters in the new 13th Congressional District felt that it would be important to keep elected congressional representation from the City of Detroit. The following question was asked: Question #2: Due to redistricting in Michigan it is possible that the City of Detroit will not have a resident as a member of Congress for the first time in Michigan history. Is it important to maintain elected congressional representation from the city of Detroit in the 13 th Congressional District?

(It is very important): (It is somewhat important): Total maintaining Detroit representation is important (It is somewhat unimportant): (It is very unimportant): Total maintaining Detroit representation is unimportant (Undecided on importance): (It does not matter):

57.79% 14.80% 72.59% 11.21% 10.59% 21.81% 4.83% 0.78%

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Foster M cCollum W hite & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

In assessing the impact of redistricting and the potential loss of an elected member of Congress from Detroit, we conducted a deeper analysis of our cross tabulation groups to identify additional positive and negative trending factors. While most of our cross tabulation groups are constant with our aggregate universe, we identified a number of significant variances. The positive voter tabular variances are as follows:
Positive over performing It is important tabular groupings

Cross Tab Grouping

Self identified Democratic Respondents Self identified African American Respondents Self identified Baptist Respondents Detroit region Respondents Maintaining African American Representation is important Respondents

Maintaining Detroit based representation in Congress IS important to respondent 80.31% 88.20% 83.77% 92.48% 90.53%

Maintaining Detroit based representation in Congress IS NOT important to respondent 14.86% 8.39% 11.84% 4.70% 6.83%

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Foster M cCollum W hite & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

The negative voter tabular variances are as follows:

Negative underperforming it is important and over performing it is not important tabular groupings

Cross Tab Grouping

Maintaining Detroit based representation in Congress IS important to respondent

Self identified Male Respondents (Underperforming) Respondents ages 66 years old and older (Underperforming) Republican Self Identified Respondents (Over performing) Self identified Independent Respondents (Underperforming) White American Respondents (Underperforming) Self identified Catholic Respondents (Underperforming) Western Wayne Region Respondents (Underperforming) Downriver Region Respondents (Underperforming) Maintaining African American Representation is important respondents (Over performing) Other 28 Cities cluster Respondents (Underperforming) Major 14 Cities cluster Respondents

67.80%

Maintaining Detroit based representation in Congress IS NOT important to respondent 27.12%

68.79%

23.15%

20.00%

67.50%

51.85%

41.98%

54.70%

37.61%

58.16%

35.46%

51.20%

41.24%

61.90%

23.81%

30.57%

64.33%

64.00%

28.00%

45.96%

45.45%

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Foster M cCollum W hite & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

D. Importance of maintaining African Ame rican or Minority Representation in Congress We asked respondents for their feelings regarding the impact of redistricting and the potential loss of African American or minority elected representation to Congress from Michigan. The local, state and national implications would be tremendous if the most diverse County in Michigan and Americas largest African American population as a percentage in a big city in America did not have an elected member of Congress who was African American or a person of color. We wanted to determine if voters in the new 13 th Congressional District felt that it would be important to keep African American or minority elected representation in Congress from Michigan. The following question was asked: Question #3: Due to redistricting in Michigan it is possible that Michigan will not have an African American or non-white Minority American as a member of the Michigan Congressional Delegation for the first time since 1954. Is it important to maintain African American or Minority representation from the 13th Congressional District?

(It is very important): (It is somewhat important): Total maintaining Minority representation is important (It is somewhat unimportant): (It is very unimportant): Total maintaining Minority representation is unimportant (Undecided on importance): (It does not matter):

52.96% 17.76% 70.72% 13.08% 11.37% 24.45% 3.74% 1.09%

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Foster M cCollum W hite & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

In assessing the impact of redistricting and the potential loss of African American or minority elected representation to Congress from Michigan, we conducted a deeper analysis of our cross tabulation groups to identify additional positive and negative trending factors. While most of our cross tabulation groups are constant with our aggregate universe, we identified a number of significant variances. The positive voter tabular variances are as follows:
Positive over performing It is important tabular groupings

Cross Tab Grouping

Self identified Democratic Respondents Self identified African Ame rican Respondents Self identified Baptist Respondents Detroit region Respondents Maintaining Detroit Representation is important Respondents

Maintaining African American or Minority re presentation in Congress IS important to respondent 78.57%

Maintaining African American or Minority representation in Congress IS NOT important to respondent 17.37%

85.71%

10.56%

82.89% 88.09% 88.02%

13.16% 8.78% 10.30%

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Foster M cCollum W hite & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

The negative voter tabular variances are as follows:

Negative underperforming it is important and over performing it is not important tabular groupings

Cross Tab Grouping

Self identified Male Respondents (Underperforming) Republican Self Identified Respondents (Over performing) Self identified Independent Respondents (Underperforming) White American Respondents (Underperforming) Self identified Catholic Respondents (Underperforming) Western Wayne Region Respondents (Underperforming) Downriver Region Respondents (Underperforming) Maintaining Detroit Representation is important Respondents (Over performing) Other 28 Cities cluster Respondents (Underperforming) Major 14 Cities cluster Respondents

Maintaining African American or Minority representation in Congress IS important to respondent 63.56%

Maintaining African American or Minority representation in Congress IS NOT important to respondent 31.36%

20.00%

70.00%

48.15%

45.68%

52.14%

43.16%

56.03%

41.84%

51.89%

42.27%

61.90%

28.57%

22.14%

72.14%

64.80%

29.60%

46.46%

46.46%

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Foster M cCollum W hite & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

Data Summary We believe that our findings have identified a picture of the 13 th Congressional district. Our data findings show Congressman John Conyers in a strong position to secure re-election for his 25th term. If there is a hope for anyone to defeat Congressman Conyers, it would be with State Senator Glenn Anderson. He is the only candidate that has a statistical opportunity to catch Congressman Conyers. It is a limited opportunity, but one that could occur, depending on the strategies of Anderson and Conyers over the next two weeks. For State Representative Shanelle Jackson, State Senator Bert Johnson and Wayne-Westland School Board member John Goci, the data findings suggest that they will not be able to be successful and are not in position to play the spoiler role for either of the two front runners.

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Foster M cCollum W hite & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

Data Analysis Statement The data has been separated analytically into cross tabulation results that are statistically significant with respect to Michigan Primary election cycle and the new 13 th Congressional District. Any sectional analysis within the aforementioned categories can be useful when inferring strengths and weaknesses and possible strategy. For the assessment of individual cross tabulation categories, we use a correlation coefficient model based on the Pearson r correlation, also called linear or productmoment correlation. Pearson correlation (hereafter called correlation), assumes that the two variables are measured on at least interval scales and it determines the extent to which values of the two variables are "proportional" to each other. The value of correlation (i.e., correlation coefficient) does not depend on the specific measurement units used. Our proportional model for correlating the statistical relevance of a geographical region, age grouping or congressional district is based on the random proportionality of our respondent pool to the specific proportionality of the groups weight to the aggregate model. The correlation coefficient (r) represents the linear relationship between these two variables (aggregate and cross tabular category). The aggregate 13th Congressional District sample size of 643 respondents has a 3.84% margin of error. Any review of the polling report can allow for the statistical relationship between the aggregate and cross tabulation margin of error for the reported clusters. The poll sample was pre weighted for gender and ethnicity based upon Foster McCollum White Baydoun Predictive Voter Behavior Analysis Model for historic primary election participation demographics throughout Wayne County and the new 13 th Congressional district represented municipalities. This poll was commissioned by Fox 2 News Detroit and conducted by Foster McCollum White Baydoun and not commissioned on behalf of or by any candidate or political organization. We strive to adhere to the principles and standards of the National Council on Public Polls in the gathering and reporting of polling data.

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