Linear

Simple Growth

20.00%
Amount 1st Diff
1.00
1.20
0.20
1.40
0.20
1.60
0.20
1.80
0.20
2.00
0.20
2.20
0.20
2.40
0.20
2.60
0.20
2.80
0.20
3.00
0.20

3.50
3.00
2.50
Amount

Time
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0

Fitting the "Curve"

Slope
Std Error
R^2
F Value
SSR

Linear Fitting
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
1
R Square
1
Adjusted R Square
1
Standard Error
5.1942E-16
Observations
11
ANOVA
df

SS

MS

F Significance F

Page 1

Using Linest
0.200
0.000
1.000
1.52E+32
4.400

Linear

Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1

1
4.4
9 2.4E-30
10
4.4

4.4 1.6E+31
3E-31

2E-137

Coefficients
Standard Error
t Stat P-value Lower 95%
1 2.9E-16 3E+15 8E-137
1
0.2
5E-17 4E+15 2E-137
0.2

Page 2

Upper 95%
1
0.2

Linear

Simple Growth
20.00%

10

12

Time
Amount

Using Linest
1.000
0.000
0.000
9.000
0.000

1st Diff

Highlight 5 rows plus number of

colums equal to the total number of
The array function returns the following values:
Intercept
(Note: for multiple regression the values are in the order reading right
to left starting with the intercept)
Std Error
Std Error of Est
df
SSE

Page 3

Quadratic

Quadratic Growth

Quadratic Growt
1st Diff

2nd Diff

0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00

0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20

14.00
12.00

10%

10.00
Amount

Time
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

10%
Amount
1.00
1.20
1.60
2.20
3.00
4.00
5.20
6.60
8.20
10.00
12.00

8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
0

4
Amount

Page 4

1st Diff

Quadratic

uadratic Growth
12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%
6

10

12

Time
1st Diff

2nd Diff

Page 5

Cubic

Cubic Growth

Cubic Growt
20%
Amount
1.00
1.60
3.80
8.80
17.80
32.00
52.60
80.80
117.80
164.80
223.00

1st Diff

2nd Diff

0.60
2.20
5.00
9.00
14.20
20.60
28.20
37.00
47.00
58.20

1.60
2.80
4.00
5.20
6.40
7.60
8.80
10.00
11.20

250.00

3rd Diff

20%

200.00
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20

150.00
Amount

Time
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

100.00

50.00

0.00
0

2
Amount

Page 6

4
1st Diff

Cubic

Cubic Growth
Cubic Growth
20.00%

25%
250.00
20%
Amount

200.00

15%

150.00
100.00
50.00
0.00

10%

5%

Amount

0%
4

10

12

Time
1st Diff

2nd Diff

3rd Diff

Page 7

Cubic

Cubic Growth
20.00%

10

15

Time
Amount

Series2

Page 8

Compound

Compound Growth

y=a(1+I)(^t)
Time
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

30%
Amount
1.00
1.30
1.69
2.20
2.86
3.71
4.83
6.27
8.16
10.60
13.79

1st Diff

2nd Diff

0.30
0.39
0.51
0.66
0.86
1.11
1.45
1.88
2.45
3.18

0.09
0.12
0.15
0.20
0.26
0.33
0.43
0.56
0.73

3rd Diff @LN(Amount)

0
0.2624
0.5247
0.03
0.7871
0.04
1.0495
0.05
1.3118
0.06
1.5742
0.08
1.8365
0.10
2.0989
0.13
2.3613
0.17
2.6236

16.00
14.00

30%

12.00
10.00
Amount

0.30

8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
0

Amount

Page 9

Compound

Compound Growth
35%

30%

30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

10

12

Time

1st Difference

2nd Diff

3rd Diff

Series4

Page 10

Compound Fit

Compound Growth (Semi Log)

Time Value
0 1.00000
1 1.76518
2 2.59258
3 2.83009
4 2.94917
5 5.70597
6 5.81607
7 8.58926
8 8.87155
9 16.26919
10 21.99407

ln(Value)
0.00000
0.56825
0.95265
1.04031
1.08152
1.74151
1.76063
2.15051
2.18285
2.78927
3.09077

Ln(Est) =
0.172+0.281T
ln(Estimated) Exp (Est)
0.17221
1.18792
0.45337
1.57361
0.73453
2.08451
1.01570
2.76129
1.29686
3.65780
1.57803
4.84538
1.85919
6.41854
2.14035
8.50245
2.42152 11.26294
2.70268 14.91969
2.98385 19.76368

exp(Intercept) =
Alternative:
Error
-0.1879
0.1916
0.5081
0.0688
-0.7086
0.8606
-0.6025
0.0868
-2.3914
1.3495
2.2304

25.0
20.0
Values

y=a(b)(^t)

15.0
10.0
5.0

Used the regression feature to do the following

0.0

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.9859
0.9721
0.9690
0.1666
11

ANOVA

Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
x1

df
1.0000
9.0000
10.0000

SS
8.6959
0.2498
8.9457

MS
8.6959
0.0278

F
Significance F
313.2437
0.0000

Coefficients
Standard Error t Statistic
P-value
Lower 95.00
Upper 95.00
0.1722
0.0940
1.8323
0.0968 -0.0404
0.3848
0.2812
0.0159
17.6987
0.0000
0.2452
0.3171

Page 11

Compound Fit

exp(x1) =

1.32467

exp(Intercept) = 1.18792
Alternative:
Estimate = 1.188(1.325)^t
1.18792
1.57361
2.08451
2.76129
Data
3.65780
4.84538
25.0
6.41854
8.50245
20.0
11.26294
14.91969
15.0
19.76368
10.0
5.0
0.0
0

10

15

Time
Actual

Est

Upper 95.00

Page 12

Log

Log
a>0 b>0

y=a + exp(bt)
a
1

Log Growth

2
2.221403
2.491825
2.822119
3.225541
3.718282
4.320117
5.0552
5.953032
7.049647
8.389056
10.02501
12.02318
14.46374
17.44465
21.08554
25.53253
30.9641
37.59823
45.70118
55.59815
67.68633
82.45087
100.4843
122.5104
149.4132

140

120

100

Amount

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

b
0.2

80

60

40

20

0
0

10

15
Time

Page 13

Log

Log Growth

20

25

30

Time

Page 14

ModLog

Modified Log
y=a - b exp(-gt)
a
20
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

b
5

a>0 b>0 g>0

g
0.2

15
15.90635
16.6484
17.25594
17.75336
18.1606
18.49403
18.76702
18.99052
19.17351
19.32332
19.44598
19.54641
19.62863
19.69595
19.75106
19.79619
19.83313
19.86338
19.88815
19.90842
19.92502
19.93861
19.94974
19.95885
19.96631

25

20

15

10

0
0

Page 15

10

15

ModLog

15

20

25

30

Page 16

Logistic

Logistic
y=a /(1 + b exp(-gt))
a
400
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

25
34.57121
47.34412
64.00956
85.12532
110.9075
141.0016
174.3372
209.1885
243.4894
275.2999
303.215
326.5483
345.2717
359.8097
370.8123
378.9788
384.9531
389.2775
392.3837
394.6025
396.1813
397.3014
398.0945
398.6553
399.0515

b
15

a>0 b>0 g>0

g
0.35
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0

Page 17

10

20

Logistic

20

30

Page 18

Gompertz

Gompertz
y=a*exp( - b exp(-gt))
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

a
40
0.013419
0.057213
0.187555
0.495785
1.098832
2.10822
3.594216
5.562812
7.954257
10.65989
13.54743
16.48505
19.35858
22.08041
24.59145
26.85852
28.86939
30.62735
32.14605
33.44537
34.54816
35.47807
36.25802
36.90934
37.4513
37.90094

b
8

a>0 b>0 g>0

g
0.2
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0

Page 19

10

20

Gompertz

30

Page 20

Fitting

Gompertz
y=a*exp( - b exp(-gt))a>0 b>0 g>0
0.00

0.00

a
b
Parameters-------->
0.00
0.00
Time
Actual Estimated Errors
0
0.0134
0.0000
0.00
1
0.8578
0.0000
0.74
2
2.1144
0.0000
4.47
3
0.7045
0.0000
0.50
4
1.4474
0.0000
2.09
5
3.7459
0.0000
14.03
6
7.7099
0.0000
59.44
7
8.4362
0.0000
71.17
8
12.6409
0.0000
159.79
9
15.8914
0.0000
252.54
10
20.6619
0.0000
426.92
11
23.6281
0.0000
558.29
12
24.9492
0.0000
622.46
13
24.2994
0.0000
590.46
14
38.3605
0.0000
1471.53
15
31.0265
0.0000
962.64
16
29.4591
0.0000
867.84
17
45.0139
0.0000
2026.25
18
46.6111
0.0000
2172.59
19
43.0402
0.0000
1852.46
20
50.6268
0.0000
2563.07
21
54.2022
0.0000
2937.88
22
53.6476
0.0000
2878.07
23
47.5499
0.0000
2261.00
24
47.0321
0.0000
2212.01
25
51.5343
0.0000
2655.78
Sum Error ^2 =
27624.02

Page 21

0.00 ===================>
g
0.00
60.0
Error Squared:
From Cell E33
50.0
27624.02
40.0
Values

Constraints =>

30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
0

To try the fit choose the solver function

minimize the error sum of squares in ce
while choosing the values for the param
d5..f5. These parameters are constraine
values in d3..f3.

Fitting

Try These

0.00

5.00

0.10
Data

10

15

20

25

30

Time
Actual

Fitted

ose the solver function and

or sum of squares in cell E33,
he values for the parameters in
ameters are constrained by the

Page 22