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1951 ,
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1.1.1

199

199

18.9

47.3

4.0

4.7

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

194.

324.

550.

646.

832.

817.

925.

1018.

1115.

1240.

1479.

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2524.

3172.

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45.2

62.2

91.5

135.

180.

208.

258.

284.7

309.5

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543.6

639.2

797.1

858.2

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, , - /1990-2007/
1.2.1

1990

4,410.30

3,176.70

1,233.60

0.1

1991

5,193.50

3,426.30

1,767.20

45.9

0.9

1992

9,394.50

8,314.70

1,079.80

80

0.9

1993

60,862.70

36,862.70

24,000.00

3,031.30

1994

81,476.60

51,376.60

30,100.00

2,825.20

3.5

1995

125,223.70

82,513.70

42,710.00

4,380.00

3.5

1996

170,500.80

88,075.60

82,425.20

8,700.60

5.1

1997

221,183.50

107,883.50

113,300.00

19,773.90

8.9

1998

277,646.40

178,066.40

99,580.00

15,826.10

5.7

1999

327,388.80

181,199.70

146,189.10

42,600.00

13

2000

309,007.80

140,970.90

168,036.90

59,619.20

19.3

2001

297,337.80

96,432.30

200,905.50

62,500.00

21

2002

353,296.90

143,017.30

210,279.60

77,926.60

22.1

2003

490,390.40

216,269.90

274,129.50

146,311.60

29.8

2004

588,292.70

347,779.80

240,513.00

107,475.50

18.3

2005

716,329.80

321,835.50

394,494.20

219,726.20

30.7

2006

881,358.20

417,021.60

464,336.60

341,728.00

38.8

2007

1,157,095.80

667,711.60

489,384.30

379,336.40

32.8

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1.2.2

- (%)

1991

18,909.60

27.5

18.1

9.3

0.2

1992

47,298.00

19.9

17.6

2.3

0.2

1993

194,835.90

31.2

18.9

12.3

1.6

1994

324,400.70

25.1

15.8

9.3

0.9

1995

550,253.70

22.8

15

7.8

0.8

1996

646,559.30

26.4

13.6

12.7

1.3

1997

832,635.60

26.6

13

13.6

2.4

1998

817,393.40

34

21.8

12.2

1.9

1999

925,345.80

35.4

19.6

15.8

4.6

2000

1,172,698.50

26.4

12

14.3

5.1

2001

1,283,146.40

23.2

7.5

15.7

4.9

2002

1,413,032.40

25

10.1

14.9

5.5

2003

1,660,364.70

29.5

13

16.5

8.8

2004

2,152,094.90

27.3

16.2

11.2

2005

2,779,578.30

25.8

11.6

14.2

7.9

2006

3,714,952.90

23.7

11.2

12.5

9.2

2007

4,557,512.10

25.4

14.7

10.7

8.3

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1.2.2- 12.6-
,

.

1.2.3

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

14.3678
1997

16.08551
1998

18.70974
1999

20.52381
2000

20.52381
2001

19.73013
2002

20.31024
2003

20.5683

20.84186

21.21494

21.89774

21.84606

21.34775

20.84327

: . , , 2008
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2007-2021

813

809

832.3

870.8

926.5

950.5

968.3

1010

1024

1126

1297

1566

1031.3

1138.1

1259.3

1340.4

1424.9

1597.1

2046.9

2606.9

3141.3

4450.2

8491.4

13079.1

27492.4

32000 43045
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1.3

10853 16957
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54
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3

36.7
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240.8
329.3
26.5
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27.7
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27.9
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925.3
258
27.9
3.6

817.4
208
25.4
3.9

832.6
180.3
21.6
4.6

2021

792.6

1088.2

646.5
135.2
20.9
4.8

550.2
91.5
16.6
6

2015

765.1

840

5161.3 9557.9 2010

769.6

1157.1 4557.5 2007

767.6

858.2 3172.4 2006

797.1 2524.3 2005

639.2 1945.6 2004

543.6 1479.7 2003

2002

309.5 1115.6 2001

284.7 1018.8 2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

716.8

1.2.4

: . , , 2008
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23

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24

www.zaluu.com
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:

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:
1992-2000 , , ( )-
2.1

,

,

1992
1655502
1993
1584156
1994
1631338
1995
1699161
1996
1747008
1997
1822383
1998
1909739
1999
2004471
2000
2030430
:

25

806
765.4
759.8
767.6
769.6
765.1
792.6
813.6
809

13442.8
44773.7
68010.4
149150
181082
214947
274335
323448
293775

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com
2.1- .
2.1.1

1992 1655501.5

LN(K/L)

x2

21.46475 7.91924426

1993 1584155.7 765.4

44773.7 7.63516357 4.06897762

31.06731 16.5565789

1994 1631338.3 759.8

68010.4 7.67185604 4.49436067 34.480088 20.1992779

1995 1699160.6 767.6

149150 7.70237616 5.26943768 40.587191 27.7669735

1996 1747007.7 769.6

181082

1997 1822383.3 765.1

214947 7.77564916 5.63814208 43.840215 31.7886461

1998 1909739.4 792.6

274335 7.78715867 5.84678659 45.529855 34.1849134

1999 2004471.4 813.6

323448

2000 2030430.2

293775 7.82795933 5.89476985 46.144019 34.7483116

16084188

809

13442.8

y*x

7.6275308 2.81411518

806

LN(Y/L)

7.7275441 5.46083324

42.19883 29.8206997

7.8094221 5.98532572 46.741935

35.824124

7049 1562964 69.5646599 45.4727486 352.05419 238.808769

1.5 :

26

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com
2000-2007 , , ( )-
2.2

,

,

2000
2030430
2001
2090383
2002
2189320
2003
2342674
2004
2591593
2005
2779578
2006
3017426
2007
3325893
:

809
832.3
870.8
926.5
950.5
968.3
1009.9
1024.1

293775
279006
337957
532227
661016
844455
1199884
1703775

2.2- .
2.2.1

2000 2030430.2

LN(Y/L)

LN(K/L)

y*x

x2

809 293774.8 7.82795933 5.894769849 46.14401866 34.74831158

2001 2090382.9 832.3 279005.5 7.82866486 5.814793821 45.52207206 33.81182718

2002 2189320.3 870.8

337957 7.82968936 5.961261618 46.67482666 35.53664008

2003 2342674.1 926.5 532227.4 7.83538957 6.353412075 49.78145869 40.36584499

2004 2591592.8 950.5 661016.2 7.91079506 6.544545465 51.77255796 42.83107534
2005 2779578.3 968.3 844454.9 7.96226783 6.770904653 53.91175628 45.84514982
2006 3017425.8

1010

1199884 8.00230805 7.080129098 56.65737406 50.12822805

2007 3325892.6

1024

1703775 8.08567919 7.416787537 59.96976465 55.00873737

7391

5852095 63.2827532 51.83660412

20367297

27

410.433829 338.2758144

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

1992-2007 , , ( )-
2.3

1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

,

,

1655502
1584156
1631338
1699161
1747008
1822383
1909739
2004471
2030430
1283146
1413032
1660365
2152095
2779578
3714953
4599542

28

806
765.4
759.8
767.6
769.6
765.1
792.6
813.6
809
832.3
870.8
926.5
950.5
968.3
1009.9
1024.1

13442.8
44773.7
68010.4
149150
181082
214947
274335
323448
293775
279006
337957
532227
661016
844455
1199884
1703775

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com
2.3- .
2.3.1

LN(Y/L)

LN(K/L)

x2

1992 1655501.5

806

1993 1584155.7

765.4

44773.7 7.63516357 4.068977619 31.06730968 16.55657887

1994 1631338.3

759.8

68010.4 7.67185604 4.494360673 34.48008807 20.19927786

1995 1699160.6

767.6 149149.8 7.70237616 5.269437685 40.58719119 27.76697351

1996 1747007.7

769.6 181081.8

1997 1822383.3

765.1 214947.4 7.77564916 5.638142082 43.84021476 31.78864613

1998 1909739.4

792.6

1999 2004471.4

813.6 323448.3

2000 2030430.2

13442.8

y*x

7.6275308 2.814115183 21.46475023 7.919244264

7.7275441 5.460833243 42.19882969

29.8206997

274335 7.78715867 5.846786586 45.52985485 34.18491338

7.8094221 5.985325721 46.74193495 35.82412399

809 293774.8 7.82795933 5.894769849 46.14401866 34.74831158

2001 1283146.4

832.3 279005.5 7.34063279 5.814793821

42.6842662 33.81182718

2002 1413032.4

870.8

44.0646698 35.53664008

2003 1660364.7

926.5 532227.4 7.49113379 6.353412075 47.59425987 40.36584499

2004 2152094.8

950.5 661016.2 7.72496409 6.544545465

2005 2779578.3

968.3 844454.9 7.96226783 6.770904653 53.91175628 45.84514982

337957 7.39183626 5.961261618

50.5563787 42.83107534

2006 3714952.9 1009.9

1199884 8.21026996 7.080129098 58.12977127 50.12822805

2007 4599541.5 1024.1

1703775 8.40989773 7.416787537 62.37442464 55.00873737

7121284 124.095662 91.41458291 711.3697188 542.3362721

33686899

13631

29

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

2. ,

:

.
, .
.

(3)
(3)

(3.1)
(3.1) EViews 5

:
:
Dependent Variable: LOG(Y)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/27/09 Time: 00:51
Sample (adjusted): 1993 2007
Included observations: 15 after adjustments
Weighting series: 1/SQR(U1^2)
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
LOG(KL)
LOG(Y(-1))

4.196484
0.070650
0.408412

1.134848
0.026103
0.165107

3.697840
2.706526
2.473629

0.0030
0.0191
0.0293

Weighted Statistics

30

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.968625
0.963396
0.006941
0.000578
54.94415
1.138066

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

7.724005
17.30976
-6.925887
-6.784277
185.2373
0.000000

Unweighted Statistics
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Durbin-Watson stat

0.541203
0.464737
0.203806
0.748151

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid

Obs

Actual

Fitted

Residual

1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

7.63516
7.67186
7.70238
7.72754
7.77565
7.78716
7.80942
7.82796
7.34063
7.39184
7.49113
7.72496
7.96227
8.21027
8.40990

7.59913
7.63230
7.70205
7.72804
7.75084
7.78523
7.79972
7.80241
7.80433
7.61565
7.66427
7.71833
7.82982
7.94858
8.07365

0.03603
0.03955
0.00033
-0.00049
0.02481
0.00193
0.00970
0.02555
-0.46370
-0.22381
-0.17313
0.00664
0.13245
0.26169
0.33624

Residual Plot
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|*
|
|
|
|
|
|

.*
.*
*
*
.*
*
*
.*
.
* .
* .
*
. *
.
*
.
*

7.764542
0.278570
0.498443

1992-2000
2000-2007
1992-2007

31

|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

, ,

1992-2007

:
1992-2000 :
: 2.1.1

2000-2007 :
: 2.1.2

32

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com
1992-2007 :
: 2.1.3

. , .
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1975-1989
1992-2007

33

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34

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3- :
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.
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, I- .
E=E(I) I . I E . U I
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Y
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I
Y[(1+ ) 1]*
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dt =

T =

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I
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K

ln(1

I
I
Y [(1 + ) 1]
K

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T =

1
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(4.9) U>1 I <E . (4.7), (4.9)-

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(4.10)
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36

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.
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=1/40 0,025
1.

/1975-1989/

Y = 1.21 K 0.57 L0.43 -

(4.10)
. / -4 /
2. /1992-2007/ -

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