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Keynote Speaker & Authors

Lowell Dittmer
1971
Asian Survey

SinoSoviet Normalization and Its International ImplicationsChinas Quest for

National IdentitySouth Asias Nuclear Crisis

1986

Issues and StudiesChinese

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VI

Political Science Review

11 National Bureau of Asia

Research 1995

1991

15
Semi-Presidentialism and Democracy2011 Robert
Elgie Sophia Moestrup In Search of Chinas Development Model:
Beyond the Beijing Consensus2011 S. Philip Hsu Suisheng Zhao
2012

1991

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VII

Issues & Studies

China Aktuell

1992

1989

1911-1916

vs.
GATT/WTO

1995

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VIII

Governance of
Biodiversity Conservation in China and Taiwan
The Taiwan China Connection: Democracy and Development Across
the Taiwan Straits Centrally-Administered Municipalities:
Locomotives of National Development
The China JournalAsian SurveyJournal of Contemporary China

1999

Social Science QuarterlyIssues & Studies

SSCITSSCI CSSCI

2001

1988

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IX

Routledge Asian Ethnicity

20 Civilization,
National and Modernity in East Asia 15

2007

Issues & Studies

1989

International
Studies QuarterlySecurity StudiesIssues and StudiesJournal of Conflict
Resolution

1996

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Party PoliticsJournal of DemocracyElectoral Studies

China QuarterlyJournal of East Asian StudiesIssues & Studies

2003-2005
2002

1986

1993

Cross-Strait
at the Turn- ing PointIs There a Greater China Identity? Rethinking New
International Order in East Asia

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Preface

1998

2009

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II

101 7 16

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Preface

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IV

Lowell Dittmer
Analyzing the
Tai- wan Strait Tangle

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Contents

............................................................................

............................................................................ III
............................................................. V

Analyzing the Taiwan Strait Tangle

......................................................
....................................................................
....................................................................

1
2
5
12

15

............................................................ 15
......................................................... 17
......................................................... 20
......................................................... 24
..................................... 26

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ii

29

31

.................................................................... 31
.............................................. 32
.......................... 38
........................................ 46
.............................................. 50
.................................................................... 55

61

.................................................................... 61
.............................................. 64

................................................
...............................
....................................................................

67
77
82

87

............................. 87
............................................................... 89
............................................................... 100
.................................................................... 111

115

.................................................................... 115

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iii

.............................................. 116
.............................................. 117
.......................... 119
........................................ 124
.................................. 126
.................................................................... 135

141

143

.................................................................... 143

............................... 143
............................... 146
.................................. 147
........................................ 150
..................................... 156
.................................................................... 159

167

.................................................................... 167

............................... 168
................................................ 175
........................................... 177
.............. 191

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iv

203

................................................ 203
............................................................ 205
...................................................... 209
................................................ 212
........................................ 218

225

.................................................................... 225
............................................................... 226
............................................................... 229
......................................................... 235
............................................................ 236
.................................................................... 241

247

.................................................................... 247
............................................................... 253
.............................................. 255

.................................. 267

............................... 272
.............................................. 274

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283

................................................ 283
.................................. 285
.............................................. 290
.......................... 298
.................................................................... 305

311

313

.................................................................... 313
...................................................... 313
..................................... 320
......................................................... 324
............................................................ 332

.............. 336

345

.................................................................... 345

................................................ 346
................................................... 346
................................................... 347
..................................... 349

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vi

..................................... 355
1999 2009 ..................... 357
....................... 359
.................................................................... 360

365

.................................................................... 365
.......................... 367
.................................. 371
.................................................................... 377

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Tables and Figures

5-1

....................................... 121

5-2

................... 130

5-3

9-1

.......... 131

19922008.......................................... 240

9-2

19942008 .... 243

10-1

............................................ 256

10-2

............................................ 258

10-3

............................................ 259

10-4

............................................ 259

10-5

............................................ 260

10-6

............................................ 261

10-7

............................................ 262

10-8

.......................................... 263

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viii

10-9

.................................... 268

10-10 ......................... 270

10-11 .................................... 271
10-12

........................... 272

10-13 .............................. 274

11-1

.............................. 289

11-2

11-3

................... 293

11-4

................... 294

11-5

......................... 295

11-6

.............................. 296

11-7

................................. 297

11-8

12-1

............................................... 334

13-1

................................. 349

13-2

............................................... 350

13-3

...................... 351

13-4

................... 352

13-5

.............................. 353

13-6

................................. 353

............................................ 291

........................... 300

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ix

2-1

.................................................. 33

5-1

......................... 129

5-2

................ 134

7-1

1994 2011

7-2

7-3

7-4

7-5

8-1

......................... 218

9-1

VAR

13-1

................................. 354

..... 179

1994 2011 ............................................. 182

1994 2011 ............................................. 185
1994 2011 ............................................. 187
1994 2011 ............................................. 189

................................ 235

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Analyzing the Taiwan Strait Tangle

Lowell Dittmer

20

1980

1950

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1949 1971

1954 1955 1958

30

1960

1971 1979

1979

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1980

1989 1991
1958

1992

1995
1996

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1990

2005 3

2008

ECFAECFA

1991 1994

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1958 1996

98% Han Chinese 2%

70% 14% 2% 14%

future of nation preference

1992 2008 12

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2008

2008 2012

1980

1990

1990

1990

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1980 1990

2010 1,200
30% 14%
970 FDI
70% IT
1

Ma, 2009

100

70% GDP

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1991 2
GDP 2002 4

GDP
1991 60
1987 37.1% GDP
4.7% 1996 22.5% GDP 3.1% 2000
GDP 3%

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balancing
bandwagoning

deferenceacknowledgment

2005 4

new course

2003

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10

Richard ArmitageColin
Powell

one-China policy

1990 deadlock game

prisoners dilemma game

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11

romantic triangle
mnage trois
Nash equilibrium

wingpivot

A B C
C A A
B C

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12

Venn diagram

60

1980
1990 2000

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13

Ma, Ying-jeou. 2009. An Economic Powers Blueprint for Future Success.

Taiwan Journal, April 2: http://taiwanjournal.nat.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=49504
&CtNode=436 (accessed July 3, 2009).

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16

1999

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17

13

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18

1949

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19

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20

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