Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Argentina
Perspectivas
Javier Finkman Economista Jefe, Amrica del Sur (ex Brazil) HSBC Bank Argentina S.A. +54 11 4344 8144 javier.r.finkman@hsbc.com.ar
Agosto 2012
View HSBC Global Research at: http://www.research.hsbc.com Disclosures and Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it Issuer of report: HSBC Bank Argentina S.A..
El mundo
Recortamos el crecimiento a 8% (de 8.4%) para 2012 y 8.5% (de 8.8%) para 2013
50pbs por encima del consenso
Dos interpretaciones
Estructural: cualquier intento de hacer poltica contra-cclica termina en ms inflacin Cclica: HSBC
Por qu creci?
Aumento rpido en la productividad del trabajo
La desaceleracin es consecuencia de
La cada en la demanda externa La persistencia del efecto del ajuste de 2011
Argentina
Desventajas
Complica el manejo de la poltica cambiaria: ciclos de apreciacin En teora es impopular pero
Es slo un problema macro (tipo de cambio) pero no de distribucin del ingreso ya que los salarios y la jubilacin mnima subieron en trminos reales Es relativamente estable Las memorias de la hper-recesin son mucho ms fuertes que las de la hper-inflacin
Aunque los indicadores lderes an no lo confirman pero la liquidez atrapada y el crdito barato deberan empujar la demanda y la base de comparacin, 2H11, es baja
Mejora en 2013
Sper cosecha La recuperacin del crecimiento potencial en Brasil
EMAE (INDEC)
Source: INDEC, OJ Ferreres
IGA (Ferreres)
10
12% 8% 4% 0% -4% Labour demand index (UTDT) Formal employ ment, priv ate sector (RHS) y-o-y %
11
El empleo est rezagado a la actividad => no hay mejora a la vista El indicador lder de empleo de la UTDT no muestra rebote an 1/3 de las empresas tiene las vacantes congeladas (SEL consultores) 1/3 suspendi personal o lo est estudiando (SEL consultores)
y-o-y %
12
Jan-10 May -10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May -11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May -12 Peso loans
Source: BCRA.
Peso deposits
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RITMO DE DEVALUACION
(diferencias entre mm de 5 das hbiles del tipo de cambio respecto a la mm del perodo anterior, anualizadas)
36 32 28 24 y-o-y % 20 16 12 8 4 0 Jan-09 Sep-09 May -10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May -12 Prov incial estimates for headline CPI Priv ate estimates for food and bev erages CPI
Fuente: Direcciones de estadstica provinciales, Inflacionverdadera.com
17,0% 15,0% 13,0% 11,0% 9,0% 7,0% 5,0% 3,0% 1,0% -1,0%
0 -1 ug -1 ct O 0 27
-A 27
27
ec D
0 -1 27
1 bFe
1 -A 27
-1 pr
1 -J 27
un
11 2
-1 ug A 7-
ct -O 27
1 -1 -D 27
1 -1 ec
27
1 bFe
2 -A 27
-1 pr
2 -J 27
un
12 2
2 -1 ug -A 7
Fuente: Bloomberg
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4.4000
4.2000
4.0000
3.8000 03/01/11 03/03/11 03/05/11 03/07/11 03/09/11 03/11/11 03/01/12 03/03/12 03/05/12 03/07/12 Tipo de cambio
Source: BCRA
15
16
Ajuste "blue"
Dlar
Dic-01
Dic-02
Dic-03
Dic-04
Dic-05
Dic-06
Dic-07
Dic-08
Dic-09
Dic-10
Fuente: EMPIRIA
Dic-11
26 Acc 12 months - USD bn 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 Jan- Jul-08 Jan- Jul-09 Jan- Jul-10 Jan- Jul-11 Jan08 09 Trade Balance
Source: INDEC.
Imports -RHS-
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Oferta Bza comercial Prstamos comerciales Prstamos financieros Inversin extranjera IFIS y Bilaterales (inc/BCRA) Demanda Dolarizacin Servicios Intereses y rentas Utilidades y dividendos Otros (inc depos en US$) Saldo Variac reservas
Fuente: EMPIRIA
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-3.268
19
Oferta Bza comercial Prstamos comerciales Prstamos financieros Inversin extranjera IFIS y Bilaterales (inc/BCRA) Demanda Dolarizacin Servicios Intereses y rentas Utilidades y dividendos Otros (inc depos en US$) Saldo Variac reservas
Fuente: EMPIRIA
-5.815
-3.247
5.304
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El tipo de cambio mltiple como opcin de poltica desde el punto de vista del hacedor
Ventajas
Retrica: depreciar sin decirlo Poltica industrial Sistema fuertemente administrado (discrecionalidad sobre reglas) Permite capturar rentas extraordinarias sin modificaciones impositivas y sin coparticipacin
Desventajas
Desafo de implementacin (similar al de una depreciacin ms rpida)
Nivel objetivo Disponibilidad de reservas para asegurar credibilidad del nuevo rgimen
Traspaso a precios
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El balance primario reportado ya en dficit Excluyendo los ingresos cuasi-fiscales, el dficit ya est por encima de 1% del PBI
Balance fiscal, ingresos y gasto pblico
4 3 2 %G D 1 0 -1 -2 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 20 10 0 50 40 30 %y-o-y, 3ma
22
4%
3.1%
0.2%
3.2%
0.4%
3% 2.3% 2%
3.3%
1.5%
3.0% 2.7%
1.7%
0.6%
0.8%
0.3%
1.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% -0.3% -0.8% 0.4%
1%
0.7% 0.4% -0.4%
-1.3%
-1%
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La deuda no es un problema
Currency Needs (excluding public sector holdings) Principal Interest GDP warrant Treasury primary deficit Funding to Provinces Sources Public sector Treasury assets Central Bank Transfers of past earnings Short-term lending Reserves ANSES - Portfolio earnings w/o sovereign bonds Banco Nacion Multilaterals Funding gap Total funding gap Memo: Currency Total primary balance BCRA transfer of past earnings ANSES Sovereign bonds Others Treasury balance Total debt obligations Principal Interest GDP warrant 2012 2013 Local Foreign Local Foreign 0,9 5,6 1,7 3,2 3,3 4,7 3,1 4,5 0,2 0,2 -4,0 -2,3 7,5 4,0 2,8 0,7 10,9 5,1 3,1 2,8 7,1 4,8 2,3 7,3 4,2 3,0 2012 2013 Local Foreign Local Foreign 8,5 9,1 5,2 5,5 0,8 5,1 0,1 4,2 1,6 1,3 1,7 1,2 0,7 2,8 4,0 2,3 1,3 1,1 8,0 9,6 5,6 2,0 8,0 7,8 5,6 0,0 2,0 5,1 7,8 4,9 1,7 3,2 3,4 1,7 7,8 0,2 0,2 0,8 0,5 1,8 2,0 0,5 -0,5 -0,4 3,5 0,0 3,1
El financiamiento no es un problema
La reforma de la carta orgnica del BCRA permite el acceso a mayor financiamiento (10% de la recaudacin en los ltimos 12 meses) Baja carga de la deuda Despus de 2012 no hay pagos significativos en dlares hasta 2015 (si no se paga el cupn PBI)
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Inflacin
Alta pero manejable
Dlar
Se depreciar (casi) lo necesario para que el TCR no se deteriore mucho ms
Salarios
Menores aumentos en trminos reales
Empleo
Dinmica dbil
Tasas
En alza
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26
27
El riesgo en 2013
BCRA: FINANCIAMIENTO AL TESORO
140.000
4% PBI
4,8% PBI
1,3% PBI
28
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Disclaimer
* Legal entities as at 8 August 2012 UAE HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai; HK The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Hong Kong; TW HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited; 'CA' HSBC Bank Canada, Toronto; HSBC Bank, Paris Branch; HSBC France; DE HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG, Dsseldorf; 000 HSBC Bank (RR), Moscow; IN HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited, Mumbai; JP HSBC Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo; EG HSBC Securities Egypt SAE, Cairo; CN HSBC Investment Bank Asia Limited, Beijing Representative Office; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Securities Branch; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Branch; HSBC Securities (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd, Johannesburg; HSBC Bank plc, London, Madrid, Milan, Stockholm, Tel Aviv; US HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, New York; HSBC Yatirim Menkul Degerler AS, Istanbul; HSBC Mxico, SA, Institucin de Banca Mltiple, Grupo Financiero HSBC; HSBC Bank Brasil SA Banco Mltiplo; HSBC Bank Australia Limited; HSBC Bank Argentina SA; HSBC Saudi Arabia Limited; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, New Zealand Branch incorporated in Hong Kong SAR Emisor del reporte HSBC Bank Argentina S.A. Bouchard 680 Piso 11 Buenos Aires, Argentina. Telfono: + 54 11 4320-2800 Fax: + 54 11 4331-5999 Website: www.hsbc.com.ar
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