Mitigating Effects of Global Population

Growth through Agricultural Technologies

Optimizing Food and Environmental Sustainability
The global population is currently rising by 75 million people per year and will grow 35%
by 2050.(1) While the challenges associated with population growth are complex, one
challenge to those in agriculture is clear: More people mean more families to feed and
fewer acres per capita from which to grow the food. Agricultural technologies are critical
to producing more food with less resources to meet the global demands of the future.
■ The current estimate of the global human population is 6.6 billion and by 2050 it is
expected to reach 8.9 billion people and peak at 9.1 billion by 2100.(2)
■ Estimated population of the
United States is today 304 World Population
million people and expected
to rise to 409 million by 2050,
a 35% increase.(2)
The world population has grown
by about four billion since the
beginning of the Green Revolution
in the 1940s, and most believe
that, without the Revolution,
there would be greater famine,
malnutrition and starvation.

Affluence and Consumption

■ As developing societies gain wealth their citizens demand higher protein foods.(3)
For example, in South Asia (Bangladesh, India and Pakistan) by 2050 consumption of milk
and vegetables is projected to increase by 70%, and meat, eggs and fish by 100%.(4)
“The cost of food rose almost 40% globally, according to UN Food and Agriculture
Organization and has continued to rise this year – is structural, meaning that prices will
not retreat to former levels. This is because newly wealthy consumers in countries such
as China and India, who can increasingly afford to improve their diets…”(5)

Convergence on Food Production

According to the UN’s food and agriculture program, 854 million people do not have sufficient
food for an active and healthy life.(6) With the global population slated to increase by 35% by
2050, the needs for enhanced food production capabilities will be challenged and impossible
without agricultural technologies.

American Farmers For The Advancement And Conservation Of Technology

A Safe, Affordable and Sustainable Food Supply Requires Technology.

www.itisafact.org
■ Variables having an impact on global food production

q q
Food Water & Land

q q
Wealth & New
Consumption Production Constraints

Climate Changes
q Food Safety
Concerns
Oil Prices & Biofuels

Earth’s Carrying Capacity

■ How many people can we support on Planet Earth? The ‘carrying capacity’ as it is defined
is “the maximum number of individuals of a given species that can be supported…on a
sustainable basis.”(7)
■ Changing Income Means Changing Needs. “Everyone wants to eat like an American on this
globe,” said Daniel W. Basse of the AgResource Company, a Chicago consultancy. “But if
they do, we’re going to need another two or three globes to grow it all.”(8)
■ Creating More with Less is Key. “We have surely overshot the carrying capacity of the
planet…data shows we are using the resources of about 1.25 earths right now. The gist of
it is all the ecological degradation that we see is proof that we have overshot the carrying
capacity of the planet.”(9)

Agricultural Technologies Mitigate Global Environmental Impact

In order for technologies to be part of the solution they must:
■ Be safe for humans, animals and the ecosystem
■ Be proven effective
■ Lessen the carbon footprint and impact on environment
■ Examples are:
> Hormones like beef implants and recombinant bovine somatotropin (rbST)– improves
animal efficiency.
> Genetically modified crops – developed for dry climates, resistance to disease,
increased human nutrition and eliminating some pesticide use.
> Conservation tillage to reduce trips across the field with equipment – saves soil
moisture, reduces soil erosion and improves carbon sequestration and crop yields.
“Responsible biotechnology is not our enemy; hunger and starvation are. Without adequate
food supplies at affordable prices, we cannot expect World health, prosperity, and peace.”(11)
Norman E. Barlaug and Jimmy Carter
References:
1) AAAS Atlas of Population & Environment. http://atlas.aaas.org
2) UN, (2004). World Population to 2300, Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, United Nations New York, NY
3) Gilland, B., (2002).World population and food supply, can food production keep pace with population growth in the next
half-century? Food Policy, 27, pgs 47-63
4) von Braun, J., (2007). The world food situation, new driving forces and required actions, International Food Policy Research
Institute, Washington DC.
5) Blas, J., & Wiggins, (2008). Expensive tastes rising costs force food up the political agenda, Financial Times, London England, March
18, 2008.
6) Ban Ki-moon, (2007). Un Secretary-General speech: Right to food must be a reality for all, UN News Service.
7) McConeghy, M., (2001). http://mmcconeghy.com/students/supcarryingcapacity.html
8) Streitfeld, D., (2008). A global need for grain that farms can’t fill. New York Times, Sunday March 9, 2008, pg.1
9) Feeney, J. C., (2008). The population explosion, why it matters now more than ever. Presentation at The Sustainable Mountain Living
series Facing the Limits: The 21st Century Challenges of Energy, Population, and Climate Change, March 18, 2008, Estes Park, CO.
10) Paarlberg, R., (2008). Starved for science, how biotechnology is being kept out of Africa, from the forward by E. Borlaug and Jimmy
Carter. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA., Pg. X AFACT-08-114