You are on page 1of 8

An Analysis of the Probability of Survival and Age Distribution of passengers aboard the Titanic and their dependence on various

factors

Fig. 2 Box plot for non survivors and survivors

The Random Variable of interest is age. Let X1 denotes age of survivors and X2 denotes the age of non-survivors. To answer -value of 0.05). Further to the above assumptions, we assume that the CDFs of X 1 and X2 have same shape. This allows us to apply the wilcoxons rank sum test. From the calculated p-value for Wilcoxon rank sum test (0.19), there is not enough evidence against Ho (Ho: X1 is stochastically equal to X2).

Fig 3: ECDF for non survivors and survivors

But from the histograms and ECDF 5+ to 15, 15+ to 30, 30+ to 45, 45+ to 60, and 60+. Now, we do a chi-square test to see if survivors and non-survivors have a homogeneous distribution across these age categories. We get a p-value of 5.47710-6, which supports our belief that there is a difference in age distributions of survivors and non-survivors. Now, since the sample size of survivors is 313, and that of non-survivors is 443, we can do a z-test on problem of proportion for each age category separately, null hypotheses being

0-5; Survivors= tailed tests were done wherever null was refuted. On performing Z tests, we get the following p values, and thus the adjoining conclusions:Age Category 0 to 5 5+ to 15 15+ to 30 30+ to 45 45+ to 60 60+ 45-60; Survivors = 45-60; Non-Survivors 60+; Survivors < 60+; Non-Survivors P value Conclusion 0-5; Survivors >0-5; Non-Survivors

I.

(a) Is there a signicant dierence in Age distribution between male survivors and male non survivors?

. We use the same approach of dividing the population into age categories to find out if there is a dependence of survival probability on age category as done in part (1), the only difference being that here the two samples come from Male. Chi-square p value of 1.47e-11 implies population of male survivors and non-survivors is not homogeneous with respect to age categories. Thus, we go ahead with 6 separate Z tests, one for each age category. Null hypotheses being as follows:0-5; Male_Survivors= 0-5; Male_Non-Survivors 5-15; Male_Survivors = 60+; Male_Survivors = 60+; Male_Non-Survivors We began with two tailed tests and single tailed tests were done wherever null was refuted. On performing Z tests, we get the following p values, and thus the adjoining conclusions:Age

The test

p-values

for

Lilliefors

0.0001661670

0.12109238

(Kolmogorov-Smirnov) normality

Shapiro-Francia normality test

0.0077707718

0.11744076

The p-values for all the tests for the two samples suggest that the samples of survivors are not normal, whereas that of non survivors follow normal distribution (at assumed -value of 0.05). This clearly suggests that the distributions are not same. However, to reinforce on this, we do a Kolmogorov Smirnov two sample test. This also suggests that the two samples come from different distributions (p value = 0.01326) implying there is a significant difference in age distributions of female survivors and dead. We use the same approach of dividing the population into age categories to find out if there is a dependence of 30-45; Female_Survivors = 30-45; Female_Non-Survivors 45-60; Female_Survivors = 45-60; Female_Non-Survivors 60+; Female_Survivors = 60+; Female_Non-Survivors We began with two tailed tests and single tailed tests were done wherever null was refuted. On performing Z tests, we get the following p values, and thus the adjoining conclusions:Age Category 0 to 5 5+ to 15 15+ to 30 30+ to 45 45+ to 60 60+ 0.666 60+; Female_Survivors = 60+; Female_Non-Survivors P value Conclusion

The above analysis suggests that there is a significant difference in age distribution between female survivors and female non-survivors.

II. Remark on how Age affected the Survival Probability of a passenger on board

the Titanic, based on consolidations of your findings in 1 and 2 above. The findings in 1 and 2 above suggest that females had higher survival probability than their counterparts. Given that the boarders are males, infants and teenagers had higher survival probability; however, age group of 15 to 30 and above 60 years had less survival probability. Given that the boarders are females, age group of 45 to 60 had higher survival probability. Possible reasons could have been that females and kids were given preference in going on life boats, old could have thought of sacrificing their lives for the young.

IV. Is there a signicant dierence in Survival Probability between the two genders?

Ho: No difference in the survival probability of the two genders viz. male and female Ha: Significant difference in the survival probability of the two genders viz. male and female (Two-sided)

Data: The below table displays the problems data:Survivor Males Females Total 142 308 450 Non-Survivor 709 154 863 Total 851 462 1313

Test adopted for testing the hypothesis: Since its a problem of proportion and we would like to compare the survival probabilities of male and female, we can use the following tests: 1. Fishers exact test 2. Z-test

Fishers exact test is more powerful test in this case but we can also do a Z-test as the sample size is large.

Conclusion: On the basis of Z-test we conclude that there is a significant difference in the survival probability of the two genders.

We have the following data:Survivors Passenger Class I Passenger Class II Passenger Class III 193 119 138 Non-Survivors 129 161 573

The p-value of 2.210-16 suggests that there is enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis (at -value of 0.05). It can be said that there is a significant difference between population distributions across passenger classes. We further break the data to compare different classes. We did single-tailed Fishers test by taking sets of two classes at a time. This helped us find which passenger class had better

chance of survival. It was observed that the survival probability is highest for Class I followed by Class II with Class III having the lowest probability for survival.

The above conclusion agrees with the common knowledge that passengers in first class had the first option to mount the lifeboats. Passengers in third class were the last to mount the lifeboats.

VI. Is there a signicant dierence in Survival Probability between the two genders even after taking the effect of Passenger Class into Account?

We make three 22 contingency tables corresponding to each class, and do Fishers test as follows:Class I Male Female Survivors 59 134 Non Survivors 120 9

We did a two sided Fishers test which yielded a p value of less than 2.2e-16, i.e., there is a significant difference in Survival Probability between the two genders for class1. So, we did a one-sided fishers test We did a two sided Fishers test which yielded a p-value of less than 2.2e-16, i.e., there is a significant difference in Survival Probability between the two genders for Class II. So, we did a one-sided

Class III

Survivors

Non Survivors

441

Female

80

132

We did a two sided Fishers test which yielded a p value of less than 2.2e-16, i.e., there is a significant difference in Survival Probability between the two genders for class2. So, we did a one-sided fishers test with alternate hypothesis being that males survival probability is less than that of

You might also like