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Background Briefing: South China Sea: Chinas Trifecta Carlyle A. Thayer December 5, 2012

[client name deleted: My questions are: Q1- What factors influenced Chinas decision to cut the cable of Binh Minh 02? ANSWER: According to Mr. Do Van Hau, Chief Executive Officer of the Vietnam Oil and Gas Group, the November 30th cable cutting incident has now been determined to be an accident caused by Chinese fishing boats. This incident illustrates that local authorities in China are taking the lead in pursuing aggressive action against Vietnam and they encourage Chinese fishermen to disregard Vietnams laws and sovereignty. All Chinese vessels carry modern communications equipment and can easily coordinate their actions. They can also report to nearby Chinese paramilitary ships for assistance. In other words, the Chinese fishing vessels acted in such a brazen manner because they did not fear retaliation. Q2 - Is there any relation to neighbours' reaction to U line on passport recently? ANSWER: Three countries have been affected by Chinas issuance of a new passport with a map claiming territory under the sovereignty of India, Vietnam and the Philippines. India has issued its own stamp with a map including the territory China claims. Vietnam is issuing an entry visa on a separate page for holders of the new Chinese passport. The Philippines has lodged a diplomatic protest by delivering a Note Verbale to Chinese officials in Manila. Chinas map has no standing in international law and cannot be used to advance its claims to indisputable sovereignty over the East Sea. Q3 - Do you think that China now has big advantage on South China Sea, after the ASEAN Summit in Cambodia? Will this change when Brunei takes the chairmanship in 2013? ANSWER: China is in a position to play the role of spoiler by preventing ASEAN from reaching consensus on South China Sea issues. Chinese officials have privately chided ASEAN about its so-called consensus. Chinas vice foreign minister Fu Ying has strongly indicated that the South China Sea cannot be internationalised. She specifically told ASEAN ministers not to involve outside powers, not to take the matter to the UN or to give high-profile media interviews.

2 Brunei is wealthy and the Sultan is greater legitimacy in his country than Hun Sen in Cambodia. Brunei cannot be bought. It will adopt a professional and low-key approach and jealously protect ASEANa unity. Brunei will strive for consensus. The year 2013 will be more difficult for Chinese diplomacy with ASEAN because Indonesia will play a stronger role behind the scenes. Brunei has powerful external friends including the United States. Q4 - How do see China's plan to board foreign ships that illegally enter disputed areas in the South China Sea beginning Jan 1, 2013? And what should Vietnam do, on the sea, rather than through diplomatic means? ANSWER: If China exercises its powers only in the territorial sea surrounding Hainan Island it will be acting in accord with international law. Since China occupies the Paracels, most of the international community will not criticize Chinese actions in territorial waters surrounding these islands. But if China attempts to enforce its regulations in disputed waters in the East Sea, its actions could be viewed as an act of state piracy or if deadly force was used, as act of war. These are special extreme cases. So far the new regulations are the words of Hainan island provincial authorities. It is actions that speak louder than words. It depends on what actions Hainan authorities take, who is involved and where the actions take place. Vietnam needs to monitor Chinese actions carefully and provide appropriate escorts to Vietnamese ships entering into contested waters in the Spratly archipelago. Survey vessels like the Binh Minh 2 should always operate under Vietnam Marine Police escort.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea: Chinas Trifecta, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, December 5, 2012.