Introduction to Natural Disasters

Introduction
1
INTRODUCTION
DISASTER
A disaster (from Middle French desastre, from Old Italian disastro, from the Greek pejorative prefix dis- bad + aster star) is the impact of a natural or man-made hazards that negatively affects society or environment. The word disaster's root is from astrology: this implies that when the stars are in a bad position, a bad event will happen. Disasters occur when hazards strike in vulnerable areas. Hazards that occur in areas with low vulnerability do not result in a disaster; as is the case in uninhabited regions. It is often argued that all disasters are man-made, because human actions before the strike of the hazard can prevent it developing into a disaster. Hazards are routinely divided into natural or man-made, although complex disasters, where there is no single root cause, are more common in developing countries. A specific disaster may spawn a secondary disaster that increases the impact. A classic example is an earthquake that causes a tsunami, resulting in coastal flooding. What is Disaster? Disaster is a sudden, calamitous event bringing great damage, loss, destruction and devastation to life and property. The damage caused by disasters is immeasurable and varies with the geographical location, climate and the type of the earth surface/degree of vulnerability. This influences the mental, socio-economic, political and cultural state of the affected area.
Natural Disaster Management
Introduction
Generally, disaster has the following effects in the concerned areas: 1. It completely disrupts the normal day to day life. 2. It negatively influences the emergency systems. 3. Normal needs and processes like food, shelter, health, etc. are affected and deteriorate depending on the intensity and severity of the disaster. It may also be termed as "a serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected society to cope using its own resources." Thus, a disaster may have the following main features: Unpredictability Unfamiliarity Speed Urgency Uncertainty Threat Thus, in simple terms we can define disaster as a hazard causing heavy loss to life, property and livelihood. E.g. a cyclone killing 10,000 lives and a crop loss of one crore can be termed as disaster. Types of Disaster Generally, disasters are of two typesNatural and Manmade. Based on the devastation, these are further classified into major/minor natural disaster and major/minor man-made disasters. Some of the disasters are listed below:
Heat waves Mud slides Storm
Major Minor
Man-made Disasters Setting of fires Epidemic Deforestation Pollution due to prawn cultivation Chemical pollution Wars Man-made Disasters Road/ train accidents, riots Food poisoning Industrial disaster/ crisis Environmental pollution
Risk Risk is a measure of the expected losses due to a hazardous event of a particular magnitude occurring in a given area over a specific time period. Risk is a function of the probability of particular occurrences and the losses each would cause. The level of risk depends on: Nature of the Hazard Vulnerability of the elements which are affected Economic value of those elements Vulnerability It is defined as "the extent to which a community, structure, service, and/or geographic area is likely to be damaged or disrupted by the impact of particular hazard, on account of their nature, construction and proximity to hazardous terrain or a disaster prone area". Hazards Hazards are defined as "Phenomena that pose a threat to people, structures, or economic assets and which may cause a disaster. They could be either man-made or naturally occurring
Major
Natural Disasters Flood Cyclone Drought Earthquake
Minor Natural Disasters Cold wave Thunderstorms
Introduction
in our environment." The extent of damage in a disaster depends on: 1. The impact, intensity and characteristics of the phenomenon and 2. How people, environment and infrastructures are affected by that phenomenon
NATURAL DISASTERS
developing countries to suffer very often from various natural disasters, namely drought, flood, cyclone, earthquake, landslide, forest fire, hail storm, locust, volcanic eruption, etc. Which strike causing a devastating impact on human life, economy and environment. Though it is almost impossible to fully recoup the damage caused by the disasters, it is possible to: (i) minimize the potential risks by developing early warning strategies (ii) prepare and implement developmental plans to provide resilience to such disasters (iii) mobilize resources including communication and telemedicinal services, and (iv) to help in rehabilitation and post-disaster reconstruction. Space technology plays a crucial role in efficient mitigation of disasters. While communication satellites help in disaster warning, relief mobilization and telemedicinal support, earth observation satellites provide required database for pre-disaster preparedness programmes, disaster response, monitoring activities and post-disaster damage assessment, and reconstruction, and rehabilitation. The chapter describes the role of space technology in evolving a suitable strategy for disaster preparedness and operational framework for their monitoring, assessment and mitigation, identifies gap areas and recommends appropriate strategies for disaster mitigation vis-a-vis likely developments in space and ground segments. Introduction of Disaster Management Various disasters like earthquake, landslides, volcanic eruptions, fires, flood and cyclones are natural hazards that kill thousands of people and destroy billions of dollars of habitat and property each year. The rapid growth of the world's population and its increased concentration often in hazardous environment has escalated both the frequency and severity of natural disasters. With the tropical climate and unstable land forms, coupled with deforestation, unplanned growth proliferation non-engineered constructions which make the
A natural disaster is the consequence of when a potential natural hazard becomes a physical event (e.g. volcanic eruption, earthquake, landslide) and this interacts with human activities. Human vulnerability, caused by the lack of planning, lack of appropriate emergency management or the event being unexpected, leads to financial, structural, and human losses. The resulting loss depends on the capacity of the population to support or resist the disaster, their resilience. This understanding is concentrated in the formulation: disasters occur when hazards meet vulnerability. A natural hazard will hence never result in a natural disaster in areas without vulnerability, e.g. strong earthquakes in uninhabited areas. The term natural has consequently been disputed because the events simply are not hazards or disasters without human involvement. The degree of potential loss can also depend on the nature of the hazard itself, ranging from a single lightening strike, which threatens a very small area, to impact events, which have the potential to end civilization. Man-made Hazards Disasters having an element of human intent, negligence, error or the ones involving the failure of a system are called man-made disasters. Man-made hazards are in turn categorised as technological or sociological. Technological hazards are results of failure of technology, such as engineering failures, transport accidents or environmental disasters. Sociological hazards have a strong human motive, such as crime, stampedes, riots and war. With the tropical climate and unstable landforms, coupled with high population density, poverty, illiteracy and lack of adequate infrastructure, India is one of the most vulnerable
Introduction
disaster-prone areas mere vulnerable, tardy communication, poor or no budgetary allocation for disaster prevention, developing countries suffer more or less chronically by natural disasters. Asia tops the list of casualties due to natural disasters. Among various natural hazards, earthquakes, landslides, floods and cyclones are the major disasters adversely affecting very large areas and population in the Indian subcontinent. These natural disasters are of (i) geophysical origin such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, land slides and (ii) climatic origin such as drought, flood, cyclone, locust, forest fire. Though it may not be feasible to control nature and to stop the development of natural phenomena but the efforts could be made to avoid disasters and alleviate their effects on human lives, infrastructure and property. Rising frequency, amplitude and number of natural disasters and attendant problem coupled with loss of human lives prompted the General Assembly of the United Nations to proclaim 1990s as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) through a resolution 44/236 of December 22, 1989 to focus on all issues related to natural disaster reduction. In spite of IDNDR, there had been a string of major disaster throughout the decade. Nevertheless, by establishing the rich disaster management related traditions and by spreading public awareness the IDNDR provided required stimulus for disaster reduction. It is almost impossible to prevent the occurrence of natural disasters and their damages. However it is possible to reduce the impact of disasters by adopting suitable disaster mitigation strategies. The disaster mitigation works mainly address the following: (i) minimise the potential risks by developing disaster early warning strategies, (ii) prepare and implement developmental plans to provide resilience to such disasters, (iii) mobilise resources including communication and telemedicinal services and
(iv) to help in rehabilitation and post-disaster reduction. Disaster management on the other hand involves: (a) pre-disaster planning, preparedness, monitoring including relief management capability, (b) prediction and early warning, (c) damage assessment and relief management. Disaster reduction is a systematic work which involves with different regions, different professions and different scientific fields, and has become an important measure for human, society and nature sustainable development. Role of Space Technology Space systems from their vantage position have unambiguously demonstrated their capability in providing vital information and services for disaster management. The Earth Observation satellites provide comprehensive, synoptic and multi temporal coverage of large areas in real time and at frequent intervals and 'thus'have become valuable for continuous monitoring of atmospheric as well as surface parameters related to natural disasters (Table-1). Geo-stationary satellites provide continuous and synoptic observations over large areas on weather including cyclonemonitoring. Polar orbiting satellites have the advantage of providing much higher resolution imageries, even though at low temporal frequency, which could be used for detailed monitoring, damage assessment and long-term relief management. The vast capabilities of communication satellites are available for timely dissemination of early warning and real-time coordination of relief operations. The advent of Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSAT) and Ultra Small Aperture Terminals (USAT) and phasedarray antennae have enhanced the capability further by offering low cost, viable technological solutions towards management and mitigation of disasters. Satellite communications capabilitiesfixed and mobile are vital for effective communication, especially in data collection, distress alerting, and position location and coordinating relief operations in the field. In addition, Search
Introduction
and Rescue satellites provide capabilities such as position determination facilities onboard which could be useful in a variety of land, sea and air distress situations.
In the private sector, emergency management is sometimes referred to as business continuity management. Emergency Management is one of a number of terms which, since the end of the Cold War, have largely replaced Civil defence, whose original focus was protecting civilians from military attack. Modern thinking focuses on a more general intent to protect the civilian population in times of peace as well as in times of war. Another current term, Civil Protection is widely used within the European Union and refers to government-approved systems and resources whose task is to protect the civilian population, primarily in the event of natural and human-made disasters. Within EU countries the term Crisis Management emphasises the political and security dimension rather than measures to satisfy the immediate needs of the civilian population. Phases and Professional Activities The nature of emergency management is highly dependent on economic and social conditions local to the emergency, or disaster. This is true to the extent that some disaster relief experts such as Fred Cuny have noted that in a sense the only real disasters are economic. Experts, such as Cuny, have long noted that the cycle of emergency management must include long-term work on infrastructure, public awareness, and even human justice issues. This is particularly important in developing nations. The process of emergency management involves four phases: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery.
Table 1. Applications of Space Remote Sensing in Disaster Management

Disaster Earthquakes Prevention Mapping geological lineaments land use To po graphic and land use maps To po graphic and land use maps Land use maps Flood plain maps; land use maps Land use and land cover maps Preparedness (Warning) Geodynamic measurements ofstrain accumulation Relief
Locate stricken areas, map damage

Mapping lava flows, ash falls and lahars, map
Volcanic eruptions
Detec tio n/measurement of gaseo us emissio ns
Landslides
Rainfall, slo pe stability
damage Mapping slide area
Flash floods Major floods Storm surge Hurricanes Tornadoes Drought
Lo c al rainfall measurements Regional rainfall;evapotranspiration Sea state; ocean surface wind velocities Synop tic w eather fo rec asts Nowcasts; local weather Local weather observations Lo ng ranged c limate mod els
Map flood damage

Map extent of floods
Map extent of damage Map extent of damage Map amount, extent of damage
Monitoring vegetative biomass;
Emergency management (or disaster management) is the discipline of dealing with and avoiding risks. It is a discipline that involves preparing, supporting, and rebuilding society when natural or human-made disasters occur. In general, any Emergency management is the continuous process by which all individuals, groups, and communities manage hazards in an effort to avoid or ameliorate the impact of disasters resulting from the hazards. Actions taken depend in part on perceptions of risk of those exposed. Effective emergency management relies on thorough integration of emergency plans at all levels of government and non-government involvement. Activities at each level (individual, group, community) affect the other levels. It is common to place the responsibility for governmental emergency management with the institutions for civil defence or within the conventional structure of the emergency services.
A graphic representation of the four phases in emergency management.
10
Introduction
11
Mitigation Mitigation efforts attempt to prevent hazards from developing into disasters altogether, or to reduce the effects of disasters when they occur. The mitigation phase differs from the other phases because it focuses on long-term measures for reducing or eliminating risk. The implementation of mitigation strategies can be considered a part of the recovery process if applied after a disaster occurs. However, even if applied as part of recovery efforts, actions that reduce or eliminate risk over time are still considered mitigation efforts. Mitigative measures can be structural or non-structural. Structural measures use technological solutions, like flood levees. Non-structural measures include legislation, land-use planning (e.g. the designation of nonessential land like parks to be used as flood zones), and insurance. Mitigation is the most cost-efficient method for reducing the impact of hazards. However, mitigation is not always suitable and structural mitigation in particular may have adverse effects on the ecosystem. A precursor activity to the mitigation is the identification of risks. Physical risk assessment refers to the process of identifying and evaluating hazards. In risk assessment, various hazards (e.g. earthquakes, floods, riots) within a certain area are identified. Each hazard poses a risk to the population within the area assessed. The hazard-specific risk (Rh) combines both the probability and the level of impact of a specific hazard. The equation below gives that the hazard times the population vulnerability to that hazard produce a risk. Catastrophe modelling tools are used to support the calculation. The higher the risk, the more urgent that the hazard specific vulnerabilities are targeted by mitigation and preparedness efforts. However, if there is no vulnerability there will be no risk, e.g. an earthquake occurring in a desert where nobody lives. Rh = H Vh Preparedness In the preparedness phase, emergency managers develop plans of action for when the disaster strikes. Common preparedness measures include the:
communication plans with easily understandable terminology and chain of command; development and practice of multi-agency coordination and incident command; proper maintenance and training of emergency services; development and exercise of emergency population warning methods combined with emergency shelters and evacuation plans; stockpiling, inventory, and maintenance of supplies and equipment. An efficient preparedness measure is an emergency operations centre (EOC) combined with a practised region-wide doctrine for managing emergencies. Another preparedness measure is to develop a volunteer response capability among civilian population. Since, volunteer response is not as predictable and plannable as professional response, volunteers are most effectively deployed on the periphery of an emergency. Response The response phase includes the mobilization of the necessary emergency services and first responders in the disaster area. This is likely to include a first wave of core emergency services, such as fire-fighters, police and ambulance crews. They may be supported by a number of secondary emergency services, such as specialist rescue teams. In addition volunteers and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) such as the local Red Cross branch or St. John Ambulance may provide immediate practical assistance, from first aid provision to providing tea and coffee. A well rehearsed emergency plan developed as part of the preparedness phase enables efficient coordination of rescue efforts. Emergency plan rehearsal is essential to achieve optimal output with limited resources. In the response phase, medical assets will be used in accordance with the appropriate triage of the affected victims. Where required, search and rescue efforts commence at an early stage. Depending on injuries sustained by the victim, outside temperature, and victim access to air and water, the vast majority of those affected by a disaster will die within 72
12
Introduction
13
hours after impact. Individuals are often compelled to volunteer directly after a disaster. Volunteers can be both a help and a hindrance to emergency management and other relief agencies. A spontaneous, unaffiliated volunteer can harm recovery efforts. Whereas volunteers under the direction of an organizing agency, such as the Caritas Network, can provide solutions to the long term effects of a disaster. Recovery The aim of the recovery phase is to restore the affected area to its previous state. It differs from the response phase in its focus; recovery efforts are concerned with issues and decisions that must be made after immediate needs are addressed. Recovery efforts are primarily concerned with actions that involve rebuilding destroyed property, re-employment, and the repair of other essential infrastructure. An important aspect of effective recovery efforts is taking advantage of a 'window of opportunity' for the implementation of mitigative measures that might otherwise be unpopular. Citizens of the affected area are more likely to accept more mitigative changes when a recent disaster is in fresh memory. In the United States, the National Response Plan dictates how the resources provided by the Homeland Security Act of 2002 will be used in recovery efforts. It is the Federal government that often provides the most technical and financial assistance for recovery efforts in the United States.
PHASES AND PERSONAL ACTIVITIES
identified risks are a common measure. Personal structural mitigation in earthquake prone areas include installation of an Earthquake Valve to instantly shut off the natural gas supply to your property, seismic retrofits of property and the securing of items inside the building to enhance household seismic safety such as the mounting of furniture, refrigerators, water heaters and breakables to the walls, and the addition of cabinet latches. In flood prone areas houses can be built on poles, like in much of southern Asia. In areas prone to prolonged electricity black-outs a generator would be an example of an optimal structural mitigation measure. The construction of storm cellars and fallout shelters are further examples of personal mitigative actions. Preparedness On the contrary to mitigation activities which are aimed at preventing a disaster from occurring, personal preparedness are targeted on preparing activities to be taken when a disaster occurs, i.e. planning. Preparedness measures can take many forms. Examples include the construction of shelters, warning devices, back-up lifeline services (e.g. power, water, sewage), and rehearsing an evacuation plan. Two simple measures prepare you for either sitting out the event or evacuating. For evacuation, a disaster supplies kit should be prepared and for sheltering purposes a stockpile of supplies. Response The response phase of an emergency may commence with a search and rescue phase. However, in all cases the focus will be on fulfilling the basic needs of the affected population on a humanitarian basis. This assistance may be provided by national and/or international agencies and organisations. Effective coordination of disaster assistance is often crucial particularly when many organisations respond and local emergency management agency (LEMA) capacity may be overstretched and diminished by the disaster itself. On a personal level the response can take the shape either of a home confinement or an evacuation. In a home confinement scenario a family should be prepared to fend for themselves in
Mitigation Personal mitigation is mainly about knowing and avoiding unnecessary risks. This includes an assessment of possible risks to personal/family health and to personal property. An example of personal non-structural mitigation would be to avoid buying property that is exposed to hazards, e.g. in a flood plain, in areas of subsidence or landslides. Homeowners may not be aware of their home being exposed to a hazard until it strikes. Real estate agents may not come forward with such information. However, specialists can be hired to conduct risk assessment surveys. Insurance covering the most prominent
14
Introduction
15
their home for many days without any form of outside support. In an evacuation scenario, a family evacuates by an automobile (or other mode of transportation) with the maximum amount of supplies, including a tent for shelter. The scenario could also include equipment for evacuation on foot with at least three days of supplies and rain-tight bedding a tarpaulin and a bedroll of blankets is the minimum. Recovery The recovery phase starts when the immediate threat to human life has subsided. In the reconstruction it is recommended to reconsider the location or construction material of the property. In long term disasters the most extreme home confinement scenarios like war, famine and severe epidemics last up to a year. In this situation the recovery will take place inside the home. Planners for these events usually buy bulk foods and appropriate storage and preparation equipment, and eat the food as part of normal life. A simple balanced diet can be constructed from vitamin pills, wholemeal wheat, beans, dried milk, corn, and cooking oil. One should add vegetables, fruits, spices and meats, both prepared and fresh-gardened, when possible. As a Profession Emergency managers are trained in a wide variety of disciplines that support them through out the emergency lifecycle. Professional emergency managers can focus on government and community preparedness (Continuity of Operations/Continuity of Government Planning), or private business preparedness (Business Continuity Management Planning). Training is provided by local, state, federal and private organizations. It ranges from public information and media relations to high-level incident command and tactical skills such as studying a terrorist bombing site or controlling an emergency scene. In the past, the field of emergency management has been limited to mostly men from a military or first responder background. Currently, the field is as diverse as any with many experts from a variety of backgrounds with no military or first
responder history at all. Educational opportunities are increasing for those seeking undergraduate and graduate degrees in emergency management or a related field. Professional accreditation standards are increasing as well. Such professional certificates as the Certified Emergency Manager (CEM) and Certified Business Continuity Professional (CBCP) are becoming more common place as the need for high professional standards is recognized and accepted by the emergency management community especially in the United States. Tools Continuity feature of emergency management resulted in a new concept Emergency Management Information Systems (EMIS) in recent years. For continuity and interoperability between the emergency management stakeholders, EMIS support the emergency management process by providing an infrastructure that integrates emergency plans at all levels of government/non-government involvement and by utilizing the management of all related resources (including human resource and other resources) for all four phases of emergencies.
INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATIONS
Red Cross/Red Crescent National Red Cross/Red Crescent societies often have pivotal roles in responding to emergencies. Additionally, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC, or "The Federation") may deploy assessment teams to the affected country. They specialise in the recovery component of the emergency management framework. United Nations Within the United Nations system responsibility for emergency response rests with the Resident Coordinator within the affected country. However, in practice international response will be coordinated, if requested by the affected country's government, by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN-OCHA), by deploying a UN Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC) team.
16
Introduction
17
NATIONAL ORGANISATIONS
Australia Australia has the federal government agency Emergency Management Australia (EMA) as the key federal coordinating and advisory body for emergency management. Each state has their own State Emergency Service. The Emergency Call Service provides a national emergency telephone number to state Police, Fire and Ambulance services. Arrangements in place for state and federal cooperation. Canada Public Safety Canada is Canada's national emergency management agency. Each province has a mandate to set up their Emergency Management Organizations. PSC also coordinates and supports the efforts of federal organizations ensuring national security and the safety of Canadians. They also work with other levels of government, first responders, community groups, the private sector (operators of critical infrastructure) and other nations. PSC's work is based on a wide range of policies and legislation. Through the Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Act which defines the powers, duties and functions of PSEPC are outlined. Other acts are specific to fields such as corrections, emergency management, law enforcement, and national security. Germany In Germany the Federal Government controls the German Katastrophenschutz (disaster relief) or Zivilschutz (civil defence) programmes. Particularly the German fire department and the Technisches Hilfswerk (Federal Agency for Technical Relief, THW) are part of these programmes. Also the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) can be deployed for disaster relief operations. New Zealand In New Zealand the Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency Management has statutory authority for controlling any state of emergency declared by central government. Local government
bodies such as city and regional councils have their own emergency management agencies to control localised states of emergency, but these all defer to the MCDEM in the event of a national state of emergency. The Wellington Emergency Management Office utilize a building that has been purpose built with its own water, electricity, communications and sewerage facilities to ensure operations in the event of an emergency or disaster. Russia In Russia the Ministry of Extraordinary Situations (EMERCOM) is engaged in fire fighting, Civil Defence, Search and Rescue, rescue services after natural and human-made disasters. United Kingdom The United Kingdom adjusted its focus on emergency management following the 2000 UK fuel protests, severe UK flooding in the same year and the 2001 UK foot and mouth crisis. This resulted in the creation of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 which legislated the responsibilities of all category one responders regarding an emergency response. The United Kingdom's management of the CCA is through the Civil Contingencies Secretariat through regional disaster centres and at the local authority level. Disaster Management training is generally conducted at the local level by the organisations involved in any response. This is consolidated through professional courses that can be undertaken at the Emergency Planning College. Furthermore diplomas and undergraduate qualifications can be gained throughout the countrythe first course of this type was carried out by Coventry University in 1994. The UK's largest ever emergency exercise was carried out on 20 May 2007 near Belfast, Northern Ireland, and involved the scenario of a plane crash landing at Belfast International Airport. Staff from five hospitals and three airports participated in the drill, and almost 150 international observers assessed its effectiveness.
18
Introduction
19
United States Under the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is lead agency for emergency management. The HAZUS software package developed by FEMA is central in the risk assessment process in the country. The United States and its territories are covered by one of ten regions for FEMA's emergency management purposes. Tribal, state, county and local governments develop emergency management programmes/departments and operate hierarchically within each region. Emergencies are managed at the most-local level possible, utilizing mutual aid agreements with adjacent jurisdictions. If the emergency is terrorist related or if declared an "Incident of National Significance", the Secretary of Homeland Security will initiate the National Response Plan (NRP). Under this plan the involvement of federal resources will be made possible, integrating in with the local, county, state, or tribal entities. Management will continue to be handled at the lowest possible level utilizing the National Incident Management System (NIMS). The Citizen Corps is an organization of volunteer service programmes, administered locally and coordinated nationally by DHS, which seek to mitigate disaster and prepare the population for emergency response through public education, training, and outreach. Community Emergency Response Teams are a Citizen Corps programme focused on disaster preparedness and teaching basic disaster response skills. These volunteer teams are utilized to provide emergency support when disaster overwhelms the conventional emergency services.
OCCURRENCE OF DISASTERS
the disaster, their resilience. This understanding is concentrated in the formulation: "disasters occur when hazards meet vulnerability". A natural hazard will hence never result in a natural disaster in areas without vulnerability, e.g. strong earthquakes in uninhabited areas. The term natural has consequently been disputed because the events simply are not hazards or disasters without human involvement. The degree of potential loss can also depend on the nature of the hazard itself, ranging from a single lightning strike, which threatens a very small area, to impact events, which have the potential to end civilization. For lists of natural disasters, see the list of disasters or the list of deadliest natural disasters.
Natural Hazards : A natural hazard is a situation which has the potential to create an event that has an effect on people. They result from natural processes in the environment and some natural hazards are relatedearthquakes can result in tsunamis, drought can lead directly to famine and disease, and so on.
GEOLOGICAL
A natural disaster is the consequence of a natural hazard (e.g. volcanic eruption, earthquake, landslide) which moves from potential in to an active phase, and as a result affects human activities. Human vulnerability, caused by the lack of planning or lack of appropriate emergency management, leads to financial, structural, and human losses. The resulting loss depends on the capacity of the population to support or resist
Avalanche : An avalanche is a geophysical hazard involving a slide of a large snow (or rock) mass down a mountainside, caused when a buildup of snow is released down a slope, it is one of the major dangers faced in the mountains in winter. An avalanche is an example of a gravity current consisting of granular material. In an avalanche, lots of material or mixtures of different types of material fall or slide rapidly under the force of gravity. Avalanches are often classified by what they are made of. Notable avalanches include: The 1970 Ancash earthquake The 1954 Blons avalanche The 1999 Galtr Avalanche The 2002 Kolka-Karmadon rock ice slide The 1910 Wellington avalanche
Earthquake An earthquake is a phenomenon that results from and is powered by the sudden release of stored energy that radiates
20
Introduction
21
seismic waves. At the Earth's surface, earthquakes may manifest themselves by a shaking or displacement of the ground and sometimes tsunamis. 90% of all earthquakesand 81% of the largestoccur around the 40,000km long Pacific Ring of Fire, which roughly bounds the Pacific Plate. Many earthquakes happen each day, few of which are large enough to cause significant damage. Some of the most significant earthquakes in recent times include: The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, the second largest earthquake in recorded history, registering a moment magnitude of 9.3. The huge tsunamis triggered by this earthquake cost the lives of at least 229,000 people. The 2005 Kashmir earthquake, which cost 79,000 lives in Pakistan. The 7.7 magnitude July 2006 Java earthquake, which also triggered tsunamis. Lahar A Lahar is a type of natural disaster closely related to a volcanic eruption, and involves a large amount of material, including mud, rock, and ash sliding down the side of the volcano at a rapid pace. These flows can destroy entire towns in seconds and kill thousands of people. The Tangiwai disaster is an excellent example, as is the one which killed an estimated 23,000 people in Armero, Colombia, during the 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz.
Sinkholes : A localized depression in the surface topography, usually caused by the collapse of a subterranean structure, such as a cave. Although rare, large sinkholes that develop suddenly in populated areas can lead to the collapse of buildings and other structures. Volcanic Eruption : A volcanic eruption is the point in which a volcano is active and releases its power, and the eruptions come in many forms. They range from daily small eruptions which occur in places like Kilauea in Hawaii, or extremely infrequent super-volcano eruptions (where the volcano expels at least 1,000 cubic kilometers of material) in places like Lake Taupo, 26,500 years ago, or Yellowstone Caldera, which has the potenetial to become a super-volcano in the near geological future.
Some eruptions form pyroclastic flows, which are hightemperature clouds of ash and steam that can trial down mountainsides at speed exceeding an airliner. According to the Toba catastrophe theory, 70 to 75 thousand years ago, a super volcanic event at Lake Toba reduced the human population to 10,000 or even 1,000 breeding pairs, creating a bottleneck in human evolution.
HYDROLOGICAL
Landslides and Mudflows : A landslide is a disaster closely related to an avalanche, but instead of occurring with snow, it occurs involving actual elements of the ground, including rocks, trees, parts of houses, and anything else which may happen to be swept up.
Landslides can be caused by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, or general instability in the surrounding land. Mudslides, or mud flows, are a special case of landslides, in which heavy rainfall causes loose soil on steep terrain to collapse and slide downwards (see also Lahar); these occur with some regularity in parts of California after periods of heavy rain.
Flood : Prolonged rainfall from a storm, including thunderstorms, rapid melting of large amounts of snow, or rivers which swell from excess precipitation upstream and cause widespread damage to areas downstream, or less frequently the bursting of man-made dams or levees. The Huang He (Yellow River) in China floods particularly often. The Great Flood of 1931 caused between 800,000 and 4,000,000 deaths. The Great Flood of 1993 was one of the most costly floods in US history. The 1998 Yangtze River Floods, also in China, left 14 million people homeless. The 2000 Mozambique flood covered much of the country for three weeks, resulting in thousands of deaths, and leaving the country devastated for years afterward.
22
Introduction
23
Tropical cyclones can result in extensive flooding, as happened with: Typhoon Nina, striking China in 1975, Tropical Storm Allison, which struck Houston, Texas in 2001, and Hurricane Katrina, which left most of New Orleans under water in the year 2005. Limnic Eruption Also referred to as a lake overturn, a limnic eruption is a rare type of natural disaster in which CO2 suddenly erupts from deep lake water, posing the threat of suffocating wildlife, livestock and humans. Such an eruption may also cause tsunamis in the lake as the rising CO2 displaces water. Scientists believe landslides, volcanic activity, or explosions can trigger such an eruption. To date, only two limnic eruptions have been observed and recorded: In 1984, in Cameroon, a limnic eruption in Lake Monoun caused the deaths of 37 nearby residents At nearby Lake Nyos in 1986 a much larger eruption killed between 1,700 and 1,800 people by asphyxiation. Maelstrom A large tidal whirlpool. The largest known maelstrom is Moskstraumen off the Lofoten islands in Norway. Powerful whirlpools have killed unlucky seafarers, but their power tends to be exaggerated in fiction. Maelstroms can reach speeds of 20-40km/h. Seiche : A seiche is a standing wave in an enclosed or partially enclosed body of water. Seiches and seiche-related phenomena have been observed on lakes, reservoirs, bays and seas. The key requirement for formation of a seiche is that the body of water be at least partially bounded, allowing natural phenomena to form a standing wave.
phenomena. A megatsunami is an informal term used to describe very large tsunamis. They are a highly local effect, either occurring on shores extremely close to the origin of a tsunami, or in deep, narrow inlets. The largest waves are caused by very large landslides, such as a collapsing island, into a body of water. The highest Tsunami ever recorded was estimated to be of 524m (1742 ft.) vertical run-up on July 10, 1958,in Lituya Bay, Alaska.
CLIMATIC
Blizzard : A severe winter storm condition characterized by low temperatures, strong winds, and heavy blowing snow. Significant blizzards in the United States include: The Great Blizzard of 1888 The Schoolhouse Blizzard earlier the same year The Armistice Day Blizzard in 1940 The Storm of the Century in 1993
Drought An abnormally dry period when there is not enough water to support agricultural, urban or environmental water needs. Extended droughts can result in deaths by starvation or disease, and can result in wildfires. Well-known historical droughts include: 1900 India, killing between 250,000 and 3.25 million. 1921-22, Soviet Union, in which 250,000 to 5 million perished from starvation due to drought. 1928-30, northwest China, resulting in over 3 million deaths by famine. 1936 and 1941, Sichuan Province, China, resulting in 5 million and 2.5 million deaths respectively. As of 2006, western Australia has been under drought conditions for five to ten years. The drought is beginning to affect urban populations for the first time. Also in 2006, Sichuan Province, China experienced its worst drought in modern times, with nearly 8 million people and over 7 million cattle facing water shortages. Scientists warn that global warming may result in more extensive drought in coming years.
Tsunami : A tsunami is a wave of water caused by the displacement of a body of water. Tsunami can be caused by undersea earthquakes as in the 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake, or by landslides such as the one which occurred at Lituya Bay, Alaska. Meteotsunamis are caused by meteorological
24
Introduction
25
Hailstorm A hailstorm is a natural disaster where a thunderstorm produces numerous hailstones which damage the location in which they fall. Hailstorms can be especially devastating to farm fields, ruining crops and damaging equipment. A particularly damaging hailstorm hit Munich, Germany on August 31, 1986, felling thousands of trees and causing millions of dollars in insurance claims. Heat Wave A heat wave is a disaster characterized by heat which is considered extreme and unusual in the area in which it occurs. Heat waves are rare and require specific combinations of weather events to take place, and may include temperature inversions, katabatic winds, or other phenomena. The worst heat wave in recent history was the European Heat Wave of 2003. There is also the potential for longer term events causing global warming, including stadial events (the opposite to glacial 'ice age' events), or through human induced climatic warming. Hurricanes, Tropical Cyclones and Typhoons Hurricane, tropical cyclone, and typhoon are different names for the same phenomenon: a cyclonic storm system that forms over the oceans. It is caused by evaporated water that comes off of the ocean and becomes a storm. The Coriolis Effect causes the storms to spin, and a hurricane is declared when this spinning mass of storms attains a wind speed greater than 74 mph. Hurricane is used for these phenomena in the Atlantic Ocean, tropical cyclone in the Indian, typhoon in the eastern Pacific. The deadliest hurricane ever was the 1970 Bhola cyclone; the deadliest Atlantic hurricane was the Great Hurricane of 1780, which devastated Martinique, St. Eustatius and Barbados. Another notable hurricane is Hurricane Katrina, which devastated the Gulf Coast of the United States in 2005. Ice Age (Glacial Event) An ice age is a geologic period, but could also be viewed in the light of a catastrophic natural disaster, since in an ice age,
the climate all over the world would change and places which were once considered habitable would then be too cold to permanently inhabit. A side effect of an ice age could possibly be a famine, caused by a worldwide drought. Ice Storm An ice storm is a particular weather event in which precipitation falls as ice, due to atmosphere conditions. Tornado A tornado is a natural disaster resulting from a thunderstorm. Tornadoes are violent, rotating columns of air which can blow at speeds between 50 and 300 mph, and possibly higher. Tornadoes can occur one at a time, or can occur in large tornado outbreaks along squall lines or in other large areas of thunderstorm development. Waterspouts are tornadoes occurring over tropical waters in light rain conditions.
FIRE
Wildfire An uncontrolled fire burning in wildland areas. Common causes include lightning and drought but wildfires may also be started by human negligence or arson. They can be a threat to those in rural areas and also wildlife. Wildfires can also produce ember attacks, where floating embers set fire to buildings at a distance from the fire itself.
HEALTH AND DISEASE
Epidemic An outbreak of a contractible disease that spreads at a rapid rate through a human population. A pandemic is an epidemic whose spread is global. There have been many epidemics throughout history. In the last hundred years, significant pandemics include: The 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, killing an estimated 50 million people worldwide. The 1957-58 Asian flu pandemic, which killed an estimated 1 million people.
26
Introduction
27
The 1968-69 Hong Kong flu pandemic. The 2002-3 SARS pandemic. The AIDS epidemic, beginning in 1959. Other diseases that spread more slowly, but are still considered to be global health emergencies by the WHO include: XDR TB, a strain of tuberculosis that is extensively resistant to drug treatments. Malaria, which kills an estimated 1.5 million people each year. Ebola hemorrhagic fever, which has claimed hundreds of victim in Africa in several outbreaks. Famine A social and economic crisis that is commonly accompanied by widespread malnutrition, starvation, epidemic disease and increased mortality. Although some famines occuror are aggravatedby natural factors, it can and often is a result of economic or military policy that deprives people of the food that they require to survive. In modern times, famine has hit Sub-Saharan Africa the hardest, although the number of victims of modern famines is much smaller than the number of people killed by the Asian famines of the 20th century.
SPACE
normal. It is theorized that these releases of radiation could cause a widespread failure of communications technology across the globe. The exact implications of such a failure are unknown. Further studies are being carried out. Some known solar flares include: An X20 event on August 16, 1989. A similar flare on April 2, 2001. The most powerful flare ever recorded, on November 4, 2003, estimated at between X40 and X45. The most powerful flare in the past 500 years is believed to have occurred in September 1859. International Campaigns In 2000, the United Nations launched the International Early Warning Programme to address the underlying causes of vulnerability and to build disaster-resilient communities by promoting increased awareness of the importance of disaster reduction as an integral component of sustainable development, with the goal of reducing human, social, economic and environmental losses due to hazards of all kinds (UN/ ISDR, 2000). Earthquake Facts & Statistics
Fact Sheet 01: Frequency of Occurrence of Earthquakes

Descriptor
Great Major Strong Moderate Light Minor Very Minor
Impact Event An impact event is a natural disaster in which an extraterrestrial piece of rock or other material collides with the Earth. The exact consequences of a direct Earth impact would vary greatly with size of the colliding object, although in cases of medium to large impacts short-term climate change and a general failure of agriculture. An example would be the Tunguska event. Solar Flare A solar flare is a phenomenon where the sun suddenly releases a great amount of solar radiation, much more than
Magnitude
8 and higher 77.9 66.9 55.9 44.9 33.9 22.9
Average Annually
1 17 134 1319 13,000 (estimated) 130,000 (estimated) 1,300,000 (estimated)
Based on observations since 1900. Based on observations since 1990.
28
Introduction
7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. Rat Islands, Alaska 1965 02 04 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 51.21 51.56 28.5 44.9 -5.05 -28.55
29 178.50 -175.39 96.5 149.6 131.62 -70.50
Fact Sheet 02: Year-wise description of Earthquakes

Number of Earthquakes Worldwide for 20002005. Located by the US Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center Magnitude
8.0 to 9.9 7.0 to 7.9 6.0 to 6.9 5.0 to 5.9 4.0 to 4.9
Andrean of Islands, Alaska 1957 03 09 AssamTibet Kuril Islands Banda Sea, Indonesia Chile-Argentina Border 1950 08 15 1963 10 13 1938 02 01 1922 11 11
2000
1 14 158 1345 8045
2001
1 15 126 1243 8084
2002
0 13 130 1218 8584
2003
1 14 140 1203 8462
2004
2 14 140 1509
2005
1 9 116 1307
10894 10264
Contd.... Magnitude
3.0 to 3.9 2.0 to 2.9 1.0 to 1.9 0.1 to 0.9 No Magnitude Total
Fact Sheet 05: List of Some Significant Earthquakes in India

Date
1819 Jun 16 1869 Jan 10 1885 May 30 1897 Jun 12 1905 Apr. 04 1918 Jul 08 1930 Jul 02 1934 Jan 15 1941 Jun 26 1943 Oct 23 1950 Aug 15 1956 Jul 21 1967 Dec 10 1975 Jan 19 1988 Aug 06 1988 Aug 21 1991 Oct 20 1993 Sep 30 1997 May 22 1999 Mar 29 2001 Jan 26
2000
4784 3758 1026 5 3120 22256
2001
6151 4162 944 1 2938 23534 21357
2002
7005 6419 1137 10 2937 27454 1685
2003
7624 7727 2506 134 3608
2004
7937 6317 1344 103 2939
2005
5782 3249 20 0 642
Epicenter Location Lat(Deg N) Long (Deg E)

23.6 25 34.1 26 32.3 24.5 25.8 26.6 12.4 26.8 28.5 23.3 17.37 32.38 25.13 26.72 30.75 18.07 23.08 30.41 23.40 68.6 93 74.6 91 76.3 91.0 90.2 86.8 92.5 94.0 96.7 7.0 73.75 78.49 95.15 86.63 78.86 76.62 80.06 79.42 70.28 Kutch, Gujarat
Magnitude
8.0 7.5 7.0 8.7 8.0 7.6 7.1 8.3 8.1 7.2 8.5 7.0 6.5 6.2 6.6 6.4 6.6 6.3 6.0 6.8 6.9
Near Cachar, Assam Sopor, J&K Shillongp lateau Kangra, H.P Srimangal, Assam Dhubri, Assam Bihar-Nepal border Andaman Islands Assam Arunachal PradeshChina Border Anjar, Gujarat Koyna, Maharashtra Kinnaur, Hp Manipur-Myanmar Border Bihar-Nepal Border Uttarkashi, Up Hills LaturOsmanabad, Maharashtra Jabalpur, MP Chamoli, UP Bhuj, Gujarat
31419 * 31199* 21390 33819 284010 1957
Estimated Deaths 231
Fact Sheet 03: Largest Earthquakes in the World Since 1900

Location Date UTC Magnitude Coordinates Reference
1. 2. 3.
Chile Prince William Sound, Alaska
1960 05 22 1964 03 28
9.5 9.2
-38.24 61.02
-73.05 -147.65
Off the West Coast of Northern Sumatra 2004 12 26 Kamchatka Off the Coast of Ecuador 1952 11 04 1906 01 31
9.0 9.0 8.8 8.7
3.30 52.76 1.0 2.08
95.78 160.06 -81.5 97.01
4. 5. 6.
Northern Sumatra, Indonesia 2005 03 28
Fact Sheet 04: Largest and Deadliest Earthquakes by Year 19902005

Year
2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 03/25 8.1 0 Balleny Islands Region 09/20 7.7 2,297 Taiwan 08/17 05/30 11/16 8.0 2 New Ireland Region, 06/04 P.N.G. 7.9 7.6 6.6 06/23 8.4 138 Near Coast of Peru 01/26 7.7 11/03 7.9 0 Central Alaska 03/25 6.1 1,000 20,023 103 17,118 4,000 09/25 8.3 0 Hokkaido, Japan Region 12/26 6.6 31,000 12/26 9.0 283,106 Off West Coast of Northern Sumatra 12/26 9.0 283,106 03/28 8.7 1,313 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia 03/28 8.7 1,313
30
Largest Earthquakes Date Magnitude Fatalities Region
Deadliest Earthquake Date Magnitude Fatalities Region

Northern Sumatra, Indonesia Off West Coast of Northern Sumatra Southeastern Iran Hindu Kush Region, Afghanistan India Southern Sumatera, Indonesia Turkey AfghanistanTajikistan Border Region 1,572 Northern Iran
1997
10/14 12/05
7.8 7.8
0 0
South of Fiji Islands 05/10 7.3 Near East Coast of Kamchatka
Contd...
Year
1996 02/17 8.2
Largest Earthquakes Date Magnitude Fatalities Region

166 Irian Jaya Region Indonesia
Deadliest Earthquake Date Magnitude Fatalities Region

02/03 6.6 322 Yunnan, China
Introduction
1995
07/30 10/09
8.0 8.0 10/04 8.3
3 49 11
Near Coast of Northern Chile 01/16 Near Coast of Jalisco Mexico Kuril Islands 06/20 6.8
6.9
5,530
Kobe, Japan
1994 1993
795 08/08 7.8 0 South of Mariana Islands 1992 12/12 7.8 2,519 Flores Region, Indonesia 1991 04/22 12/22 1990 07/16 7.6 7.6 7.7 75 0 1,621 Costa Rica Kuril Islands Luzon, Philippine Islands 06/20 7.4 50,000 10/19 6.8 2,000 12/12 7.8 2,519 09129 6.2 9,748
Colombia India
Flores Region, Indonesia Northern India
Iran
31
32
Introduction
33
EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS
Question: During an Earthquake (EQ), should you head for the doorway? Answer: Yes, only if you live in an old, unreinforced adobe. In modern homes, doorways are no stronger than any other parts of the house and usually have doors that will swing and can injure you. You are safer practicing the duck, cover, and hold under a sturdy piece of furniture. Question: What emergency supplies do I need? Answer: 1. Fire extinguisher. 2. Adequate supplies of medications that you or family members are taking. 3. Crescent and pipe wrenches to turn off gas and water supplies. 4. First-aid kit and handbook. 5. Flashlights with extra bulbs and batteries. 6. Portable radio with extra batteries. 7. Water for each family member for at least 3 days (allow at least 1 gallon per person per day) and purification tablets or chlorine bleach to purify drinking water from other sources. 8. Canned and package foods, enough for several days and MECHANICAL can opener. Extra food for pets if necessary. 9. Camp stove or barbecue to cook on outdoors (store fuel out of the reach of children). 10. Waterproof, heavy-duty plastic bags for waste disposal. Question: How can I plan ahead for an Earthquake? Answer: 1. Make sure each member of your family knows what to do no matter where they are when EQs occur: Establish a meeting place where you can all reunite afterward. Find out about EQ plans developed by children's school or day care.
2.
3. 4. 5.
Remember transportation may be disrupted; keep some emergency suppliesfood, liquids, and comfortable shoes, for exampleat work. Know where you gas, electric and water main shutoffs are and how to turn them off if there is a leak or electrical short. Make sure older members of the family can shut off utilities. Locate your nearest fire and police stations and emergency medical facility. Talk to your neighborshow could they help you, or you them after an EQ. Take Red Cross First Aid and CPR Training Course.
Question: What should I do during an EQ? Answer: 1. If you are indoorsstay there! (Get under a desk or table and hang on to it, or move into a hallway or get against an inside wall. Stay clear of windows, fireplaces, and heavy furniture or appliances. Get out of the kitchen, which is a dangerous place (things can fall on you). Do not run downstairs or rush outside while the building is shaking or while there is danger of falling and hurting yourself or being hit by falling glass or debris. 2. If you are outsideget into the open, away from building, power lines, chimneys, and anything else that might fall on you. 3. If you are drivingstop, but carefully. Move your car as far out of traffic as possible. Do not stop on or under a bridge or overpass or under trees, light posts, power lines, or signs. Stay inside your car until the shaking stops. When you resume driving watch for breaks in the pavement, fallen rocks, and bumps in the road at bridge approaches. 4. If you are in a mountainous areawatch out for falling rock, landslides, trees, and other debris that could be loosened by quakes.
34
Introduction
35
Question: Things not to do during an EQ? Answer: 1. Do not turn on the gas again if you turned it off; let the gas company do it. 2. Do not use matches, lighters, camp stoves or barbecues, electrical equipment, appliances until you are sure there are no gas leaks. They may create a spark that could ignite leaking gas and cause an explosion and fire. 3. Do not use your telephone, except for a medical or fire emergency. You could tie up the lines needed for emergency response. If the phone doesn't work send someone for help. 4. Do not expect firefighters, police or paramedics to help you. They may not be available. Question: What can I expect in my house when an EQ occurs? How do I identify it? What can be done? Answer: The contents of your home may be damaged and can be dangerous: 1. Shaking can make light fixtures fall, refrigerators and other large items move across the floor, and bookcases and television sets topple over. Identify: Look around your house for things that could fall or move. 2. Ask yourself if your cupboard doors fly open (allowing dishes to shatter on the floor) What Can Be Done: You can install door latches, braces and fasteners to fix most of these hazards yourself. Question: What do I do after an earthquake? Answer: 1. Wear sturdy shoes to avoid injury from broken glass and debris. Expect aftershocks. 2. Check for injuries (if a person is bleeding, put direct pressure on the wound, use clean gauze or cloth if available; If a person is not breathing administer CPR; Do not attempt to move seriously injured persons unless they are in further danger of injury; cover injured persons
with blankets to keep warm; seek medical help for serious injuries. 3. Check for hazards (Fire hazardsput out fires in your home or neighbourhood immediately, call for help; Gas leaksshut off main gas valve only if you suspect a leak because of broken pipes or odour; Damaged electrical wiringShut off power at the control box if there is any danger to house wiring; Downed or damaged utility linesdo not touch downed power lines or any objects in contact with them; spillsclean up any spilled medicines, drugs, or other harmful materials such as bleach, lye, gas; downed or damaged chimneys Approach with cautiondon't use damaged chimney (it could start fire or let poisonous gases into your house; fallen itemsbeware of items tumbling off shelves when you open doors of closets and cupboards; (4) check food and water suppliesDo not eat or drink anything from open containers near shattered glass; If power is off, plan meals to use up foods that will spoil quickly or frozen foods (food in the freezer should be good for at least a couple of days; Don't light your kitchen stove if you suspect a gas leak; Use BBQ or camp stoves, outdoors only for emergency cooking; If your water is off you can drink supplies from water heaters, melted ice cubes or canned vegetables (Avoid drinking water from swimming pools or especially spasit may have too many chemicals in it to be safe).
Question: What are the steps to EQ safety/awareness? Answer: 1. Estimate what EQ of what sizes are likely to occur (geology). 2. Given the EQ size we then estimate what the shaking will be (seismology). 3. Given the shaking, we estimate the response of different types of buildings (EQ engineering). Only with all these steps can we take steps as society to enact bldg. codes and retrofitting programmes to make our community safer.
36
Introduction
37
Question: What are part of the earthquake Supplies and Equipment Checklist? Answer: When organizing supplies for an earthquake, remember that you need to get to them after an earthquake has turned your house into mess. Store supplies in an easy to find location that has a minimal chance of being buried under falling objects. If you are short on space, a large trashcan makes an excellent storage container. If you live in an apartment, the container can be hidden under a decorative tablecloth. Earthquakes can happen at any time. Are you prepared right now? Have you rotated your food supplies in the last six months? If not, make time on your calendar. Do it now! Work Gloves.
Ax/Maul (min. 6 lb.). Shovel (flat head and pointed). Broom. Hammer and Nails. Screwdrivers. Crowbar or Claw Tool (36" or Longer). Plastic Sheeting Rolls (4 Mil. IO' X 25'). Plastic Garbage Bags (Heavy Duty, 30 Gal. or Larger). Small and Large Plastic Bags. Coils of Rope 1/4", 1/2", 3/4" (25'50'). Coil of Wire. Tent (Family or Tube Type). Tarp (PVC or Canvas, Minimum Two, 8' X IO'). Sleeping Bags, Blanket, or Space Blanket. Cheese Cloth (To Strain Particles From Water). CASH MONEY (Small Denominations & Coin). Dry Food. Water. Clothing. Walking Shoes and Socks Local Road Map.
Fire Extinguisher (We recommend a dry chemical type with a minimum size rating of 2A-IOBC, with an earthquake restraining strap, a hose type nozzle, and a metal head). Compass. Flashlight With Batteries, Chemical Light Sticks and Matches, In Waterproof Container. Small Radio (Battery Powered Portable). Entertainment PackFamily Photos, Notebooks, Literature, and Games.
Question: What are the sanitation supplies one needs to carry during the EQ? Answer: 1. Plastic Bagsheavy duty garbage can size and smaller zip-lock types 2. Powdered Chlorine Lime(proper storage is required, it is an oxidizer and it is corrosive) 3. Portable Camp Toilet with Chemicals 4. Tissue Paper 5. Handi-wipes, Wet-N-Drys, etc. for water free cleanup 6. Toilet SuppliesTowelettes, Shampoo, Toothpaste, Deodorant, Sanitary Napkins, Etc. 7. Insect Sprays Question: What are the structural precautions one can take while constructing house to avoid the risk of EQ? Answer:
38
Introduction
39
Strengthen the connections between ceilings, walls and floors using the appropriate hardware (image at right). Inspect all exposed framing in garages, basements, porches and patio covers. Strengthen this where necessary. Brick and Masonry Facades: Check all brick, masonry and stone facades to make sure they are securely attached to your home. Consult a structural engineer for advice on how to do this.
Homes that have been framed in wood are generally quite resistant to earthquake damage. Watching tall trees in a strong windstorm demonstrates this resistance. It is unlikely that conventionally-frame houses will collapse. This is the case only if the home remains on its foundations and the roof, ceiling and walls remain connected.
Chimneys: One of the most common types of damage suffered in earthquakes is a toppled chimney. This becomes extremely dangerous when bricks penetrate the roof and fall to the rooms below.
Foundation: The majority of residential structural damage is caused by homes sliding off their foundations during major earthquakes. Check your house and garage for foundation bolts. These bolts secure the wood structure to the concrete foundation. They are placed approximately six feet apart along the sill plate and should look like the one illustrated.
Check the chimney for loose mortar, flue or bricks. Reinforce the ceiling surrounding the chimney with 3/ 4" plywood nailed to the beams. This will provide protection from failing bricks that might break through the roof.
Using a hammer drill and a carbide bit, drill a hole through the sill plate into the foundation. Place these holes every six feet. Drop a 1/2" 8" expansion bolt into the holes and finish by tightening the nut and washer.
Windows: Inspect all large plate glass windows to make sure they are safety glass. Consider adding a safety film to all windows. This does not prevent the window from breaking, but it does keep the glass from falling and injuring loved ones.
Cripple Walls: Inspect the vertical studs that extend from the foundation to the first floor of your home. These are called cripple walls. If they are exposed on the inside, they could buckle in the severe ground motion that accompanies many large earthquakes. Strengthen the cripple walls by nailing plywood sheeting to the vertical studs. Inspect the garage for exposed cripple walls. This is particularly important if the garage is supporting living quarters.
40
Introduction
41
Mobile Homes: It is relatively easy for a mobile home to be thrown off its supports during an earthquake; even those that produce relatively minor shaking. Leave the wheels on the coach to limit its fall. Check the undercarriage to make sure that it has been securely tied to the foundation. Tie doublewide mobile homes together. The two halves generally are of different weights. Because of this, they move differently in an earthquake and can easily pull apart. Seismic bracing systems are commercially available. Be sure that any system you are interested in has been CSA (Canadian Standards Association) certified and inspected by the appropriate local authorities. Question: What should one do when people comeback home from the disaster? Answer: Returning home after a major disaster can be both dangerous and difficult. Do not return home until authorities have indicated that it is safe to do so.
Remember that it takes a long time to recover from a disaster. Take your time and pace yourself. Plan a reasonable amount of activity each day. Include children in clean up and recovery activities. Watch for signs of stress in yourself and family members. If you can't shake feelings of despair, get professional help. While life will not be the same as before the disaster happened, you can and will recover. The behaviour of your pets may change after an emergency. Normally quiet and friendly pets may become aggressive or defensive. Watch animals closely. If after a disaster you have to leave town, take your pet with you. Pets are unlikely to survive on their own. Try to stay at home and avoid driving to keep roads clear for emergency workers. If you have appropriate insurance, call your agent. Take pictures of damages. Keep good records of repair and cleaning costs.
Before entering a damaged building: Put on a sturdy shoes and work gloves for protection against glass or other debris. Check exterior, roof and chimney for structural damage. Stay away from fallen or damaged electrical wires. They could still be alive. Do not carry lanterns or torches that could start a fire. If you have any doubts about safety, have your home inspected by a professional before entering. Keep a battery operated radio with you to hear any emergency updates
Upon Entering: Check for injured or trapped persons. Give first aid where appropriate. Do not move seriously injured persons unless they are in immediate danger of further injury. Call for help. Extinguish all open flames. Until phone service is fully restored, use the phone only for a life-threatening emergency. Check utilities and appliances: Check Gas Supply: If you smell, gas or hear a blowing or hissing sound, open a window and quickly leave the building. Turn off the gas at the outside main valve if you can, and call the gas company from a neighbour's home. If you turn off the gas for any reason, a professional must turn it back on. Check Electricity: If you see sparks, broken or frayed wires, or if you smell hot insulation, turn off the electricity at the main fuse box or circuit breaker; call an electrician first for advice. Check Sewage and Water Lines: If you suspect sewage lines are damaged, avoid using the toilets and call a plumber. If water pipes are damaged, contact the water company and avoid using water from the tap. You can obtain safe water by melting ice cubes.
42
Introduction
43
Checking Electrical Appliances If any of the electrical appliances are wet, turn off the main power switch in the house. Unplug the appliance, dry it out, then reconnect it and turn off the main power switch back on. If fuses or circuits blow when the electrical power is restored, turn off the main power switch again and inspect for short circuits in the home wiring or appliances. Call a professional if the problem continues to occur.
Cleaning Up: Clean up spilled medicines, bleaches, gasoline, or other flammable liquids. Try to protect your home from further damage. Open windows and doors. Patch holes. Clean and disinfect everything that got wet. The mud left behind by floodwaters can contain sewage and chemicals. If your basement is flooded, pump it out gradually (about one-third of the water per day) to avoid damage. The walls may collapse and the floor may buckle if the basement is pumped out while the surrounding ground is still waterlogged. Throw out food, cosmetics and medicines that have come into contact with floodwaters.
Seismic Zonation map of a country is a guide to the seismic status of a region and its susceptibility to earthquakes. India has been divided into five zones with respect to severity of earthquakes. Of these, zone v is seismically the most active where earthquakes of magnitude 8 or more could occur recent strong motion observations around the world have revolutionized thinking on the design of engineering structures, placing emphasis also on the characteristics of the structures themselves it should be realized that in the case of shield type earthquakes, historic data are insufficient to define zones because recurrence intervals are much longer than the recorded human history this may often give a false sense of security. Occurrence of the damaging earthquake at Latur, falling in zone I is a typical example of this situation.
What Causes Earthquakes: Information about Faults, Plate Tectonics and Earth Structure. Question: What is an earthquake and what causes them to happen? Answer: An earthquake is caused by a sudden slip on a fault. Stresses in the earth's outer layer push the sides of the fault together. Stress builds up and the rocks slips suddenly, releasing energy in waves that travel through the earth's crust and cause the shaking that we feel during an earthquake. An EQ occurs when plates grind and scrape against each other. In California there are two plates the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate. The Pacific Plate consists of most of the Pacific Ocean floor and the California Coast line.
The North American Plate comprises most the North American Continent and parts of the Atlantic Ocean floor. These are primary boundaries between these two plates is the San Andreas Fault. The San Andreas Fault is more than 650 miles long and extends to depths of at least 10 miles. Many other smaller faults like the Hayward (Northern California) and the San Jacinto (Southern California) branch from and join the San Andreas Fault Zone. The Pacific Plate grinds northwestward past the North American Plate at a rate of about two inches per year. Parts of the San Andreas Fault system adapt to this movement by constant "creep" resulting in many tiny shocks and a few moderate earth tremors. In other areas where creep is NOT constant, strain can build up for hundreds of years, producing great EQs when it finally releases.
Question: Can we cause earthquakes? Is there any way to prevent earthquakes? Answer: Earthquakes induced by human activity have been documented in a few locations in the United States, Japan, and Canada. The cause was injection of fluids into deep wells for waste disposal and secondary recovery of oil, and the use of reservoirs for water supplies. Most of these earthquakes were minor. The largest and most widely known resulted from fluid injection at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal near Denver,
44
Introduction
45
Colorado. In 1967, an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 followed a series of smaller earthquakes. Injection had been discontinued at the site in the previous year once the link between the fluid injection and the earlier series of earthquakes was established. (Nicholson, Craig and Wesson, R.L., 1990, Earthquake Hazard Associated with Deep Well InjectionA Report to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1951, 74 p.) Other human activities, even nuclear detonations, have not been linked to earthquake activity. Energy from nuclear blasts dissipates quickly along the Earth's surface. Earthquakes are part of a global tectonic process that generally occurs well beyond the influence or control of humans. The focus (point of origin) of earthquakes is typically tens to hundreds of miles underground. The scale and force necessary to produce earthquakes are well beyond our daily lives. We cannot prevent earthquakes; however, we can significantly mitigate their effects by identifying hazards, building safer structures, and providing education on earthquake safety.
water rose near the surface. The earth is divided into four main layers: the inner core, outer core, mantle, and crust. The core is composed mostly of iron (Fe) and is so hot that the outer core is molten, with about 10% sulfur (S). The inner core is under such extreme pressure that it remains solid. Most of the Earth's mass is in the mantle, which is composed of iron (Fe), magnesium (Mg), aluminum (Al), silicon (Si), and oxygen (O) silicate compounds. At over 1000 degrees C, the mantle is solid but can deform slowly in a plastic manner. The crust is much thinner than any of the other layers, and is composed of the least dense calcium (Ca) and sodium (Na) aluminum-silicate minerals. Being relatively cold, the crust is rocky and brittle, so it can fracture in earthquakes.
Question: What do we know about the interior of the Earth? Answer:
Question: What are plate tectonics? Answer: Plate tectonics are the continual slow movement of the tectonic plates, the outermost part of the earth. This motion is what causes earthquakes and volcanoes and has created most of the spectacular scenery around the world. Question: What is a fault and what are the different types? Answer: A fault is a fracture or zone of fractures between two blocks of rock. Faults allow the blocks to move relative to each other. This movement may occur rapidly, in the form of an earthquakeor may occur slowly, in the form of creep. Faults may range in length from a few millimeters to thousands of kilometers. Most faults produce repeated displacements over geologic time. During an earthquake, the rock on one side of the fault suddenly slips with respect to the other. The fault surface can be horizontal or vertical or some arbitrary angle in between.
Earth scientists use the angle of the fault with respect to the surface (known as the dip) and the direction of slip along the fault to classify faults. Faults, which move along the direction of the dip plane, are dip-slip faults and described as either normal or reverse, depending on their motion. Faults that move horizontally are known as strike-slip faults and are classified as either right-lateral or left-lateral. Faults, which
Five billion years ago a massive conglomeration of space materials formed the Earth. The heat energy released by this event melted the entire planet, and it is still cooling off today. Denser materials like iron (Fe) sank into the core of the Earth, while lighter silicates (Si), other oxygen (O) compounds, and
46
Introduction
47
show both dip-slip and strike-slip motion are known as obliqueslip faults. The following definitions are adapted from The Earth by Press and Siever. Normal fault- a dip-slip fault in which the block above the fault has moved downward relative to the block below. This type of faulting occurs in response to extension and is often observed in the Western United States Basin and Range Province and along oceanic ridge systems. Thrust fault- a dip-slip fault in which the upper block, above the fault plane, moves up and over the lower block. This type of faulting is common in areas of compression, such as regions where one plate is being sub ducted under another as in Japan. When the dip angle is shallow, a reverse fault is often described as a thrust fault. Strike-slip faulta fault on which the two blocks slide past one another. The San Andreas Fault is an example of a right lateral fault. A left-lateral strike-slip fault is one on which the displacement of the far block is to the left when viewed from either side. A right-lateral strike-slip fault is one on which the displacement of the far block is to the right when viewed from either side. Question: At what depth do earthquakes occur?
Question: How do we know a fault exists? Answer: 1. if the EQ left surface evidence, such as surface ruptures or fault scarps (cliffs made by EQs). 2. if a large EQ has broken the fault since we began instrumental recordings in 1932. 3. if the faults produces small EQs that we can record with the denser seismographic network established in the 1970s. Question: Where can I go to see the fault? Answer: The closest fault depends on where you live. Some earthquakes produce spectacular fault scarps, and others are completely buried beneath the surface. Sometimes you may not even know that you are looking at a fault scarp. Question: What does an earthquake feel like? Answer: Generally, during an earthquake you first will feel a swaying or small jerking motion, then a slight pause, followed by a more intense rolling or jerking motion. The duration of the shaking you feel depends on the earthquake's magnitude, your distance from the epicenter, and the geology of the ground under your feet. Shaking at a site with soft sediments, for example, can last 3 times as long as shaking at a stable bedrock site such as one composed of granite.
If the site is in a building, then the height of the building and type of material it is constructed from are also factors. For minor earthquakes, ground shaking usually lasts only a few seconds. Strong shaking from a major earthquake usually lasts less than one minute. For example, shaking in the 1989 magnitude 7.1 Loma Prieta (San Francisco) earthquake lasted 15 seconds; for the 1906 magnitude 8.3 San Francisco earthquakes it lasted about 40 seconds. Shaking for the 1964 magnitude 9.2 Alaska earthquakes, however, lasted three minutes.
Answer: Earthquakes occur in the crust or upper mantle, which ranges from the earth's surface to about 800 kilometers deep (about 500 miles). Question: What is "surface rupture" in an earthquake? Answer: Surface rupture occurs when movement on a fault deep within the earth breaks through to the surface. NOT ALL earthquakes result in surface rupture. Question: What is the relationship between faults and earthquakes? What happens to a fault when an earthquake occurs? Answer: Earthquakes occur on faultsstrike-slip earthquakes occur on strike-slip faults, normal earthquakes occur on normal faults, and thrust earthquakes occur on thrust or reverse faults. When an earthquake occurs on one of these faults, the rock on one side of the fault slips with respect to the other. The fault surface can be vertical, horizontal, or at some angle to the surface of the earth. The slip direction can also be at any angle.
Question: Foreshocks, aftershockswhat is the difference? Answer: "Foreshock" and "aftershock" are relative terms. Foreshocks are earthquakes, which precede larger earthquakes
48
Introduction
49
in the same location. Aftershocks are smaller earthquakes, which occur in the same general area during the days to years following a larger event or "mainshock", defined as within 1-2 fault lengths away and during the period of time before the background seismicity level has resumed. As a general rule, aftershocks represent minor readjustments along the portion of a fault that slipped at the time of the main shock. The frequency of these aftershocks decreases with time. Historically, deep earthquakes (>30km) are much less likely to be followed by aftershocks than shallow earthquakes.
Question: Can you prevent large earthquakes by making lots of small ones, or by "lubricating" the fault with water? Answer: Seismologists have observed that for every magnitude 6 earthquake there are 10 of magnitude 5, 100 of magnitude 4, 1,000 of magnitude 3, and so forth as the events get smaller and smaller. This sounds like a lot of small earthquakes, but there are never enough small ones to eliminate the occasional large event.
It would take 32 magnitudes 5's, 1000 magnitude 4's, and 32,000 magnitude 3's to equal the energy of one magnitude 6 event. So, even though we always record many more small events than large ones, there are never enough to eliminate the need for the occasional large earthquake. As for "lubricating" faults with water or some other substance, injecting high-pressure fluids deep into the ground is known to be able to trigger earthquakes to occur sooner than would have been the case without the injection. However, this would be a dangerous pursuit in any populated area, as one might trigger a damaging earthquake.
Question: Two earthquakes occurred on the same day. Are they related? Answer: Often, people wonder if an earthquake in Alaska may have triggered an earthquake in California; or if an earthquake in Chile is related to an earthquake that occurred a week later in Mexico. Over these distances, the answer is no. Even the Earth's rocky crust is not rigid enough to transfer stress fields efficiently over thousands of miles. Question: Can you predict earthquakes? Answer: No. Neither the USGS nor Caltech nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. They do not know how, and they do not expect to know how any time in the near future. However based on scientific data, probabilities can be calculated for potential future earthquakes. For example, scientists estimate that over the next 30 years the probability of a major EQ occurring in the San Francisco Bay area is 67% and 60% in Southern California. Question: Can animals predict earthquakes? Answer: Changes in animal behaviour cannot be used to predict earthquakes. Even though there have been documented cases of unusual animal behaviour prior to earthquakes, a reproducible connection between a specific behaviour and the occurrence of an earthquake has not been made.
Animals change their behaviour for many reasons and given that an earthquake can shake millions of people, it is likely that a few of their pets will, by chance, be acting strangely before an earthquake.
Question: Can some people sense that an earthquake is about to happen? (Earthquake sensitive)? Answer: There is no scientific explanation for the symptoms some people claim to have preceding an earthquake, and more often than not there is no earthquake following the symptoms. Question: Is there earthquake weather? Answer: In the 4th Century B.C., Aristotle proposed that earthquakes were caused by winds trapped in subterranean caves. Small tremors were thought to have been caused by air pushing on the cavern roofs, and large ones by the air breaking the surface.
This theory lead to a belief in earthquake weather, that because a large amount of air was trapped underground, the weather would be hot and calm before an earthquake. A later theory stated that earthquakes occurred in calm, cloudy conditions, and were usually preceded by strong winds, fireballs, and meteors.
50
Introduction
51
However, there is no connection between weather and earthquakes. They are the result of geologic processes within the earth and can happen in any weather and at any time during the year. Earthquakes originate miles underground. Wind, precipitation, temperature, and barometric pressure changes affect only the surface and shallow subsurface of the Earth. Earthquakes are focused at depths well out of the reach of weather, and the forces that cause earthquakes are much larger than the weather forces. Earthquakes occur in all types of weather, in all climate zones, in all seasons of the year, and at any time of day. Sometimes, we are asked: "Do earthquakes change the weather in any way? Earthquakes themselves do not cause weather to change. Earthquakes, however, are a part of global tectonics, a process that often changes the elevation of the land and its morphology. Tectonics can cause inland areas to become coastal or vice versa. Changes significant to alter the climate occur over millions of years, however, and after many earthquakes.
Question: Are there more earthquakes in the morning/ in the evening/at a certain time of the month? Answer: Earthquakes are equally as likely to occur at any time of the day or month or year. The factors that vary between the time of the day, month, or year do not affect the forces in the earth that cause earthquakes. Question: Can the position of the moon or the planets affect seismicity? Answer: The moon, sun, and other planets have an influence on the earth in the form of perturbations to the gravitational field. The relative amount of influence is proportional to the objects mass, and inversely proportional to the square of its distance from the earth. No significant correlations have been identified between the rate of earthquake occurrence and the semi-diurnal tides when using large earthquake catalogs. There have, however, been some small but significant correlations reported between the semi-diurnal tides and the rate of occurrence of aftershocks in some volcanic regions, such as Mammoth Lakes.
Question: Can the ground open up during an earthquake? Answer: Shallow crevasses can form during earthquake induced landslides, lateral spreads, or other types of ground failures. Faults, however, do not open up during an earthquake. Movement occurs along the plane of a fault, not perpendicular to it. If faults opened up, no earthquake would occur because there would be no friction to lock them together. Question: Why are we having so many earthquakes? Has earthquake activity been increasing? Does this mean a big one is going to hit? We haven't had any earthquakes in a long time; does this mean that the pressure is building up and there will be a big one? Answer: Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant throughout this century and, according to our records; have actually seemed to decrease in recent years. A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications.
In 1931, there were about 350 stations operating in the world; today, there are more that 4,000 stations and the data now comes in rapidly from these stations by telex, computer and satellite. This increase in the number of stations and the more timely receipt of data has allowed us and other seismological centres to locate many small earthquakes which were undetected in earlier years, and we are able to locate earthquakes more rapidly. The NEIC now locates about 12,000 to 14,000 earthquakes each year or approximately 35 per day. Also, because of the improvements in communications and the increased interest in natural disasters, the public now learns about more earthquakes. According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 18 major earthquakes (7.07.9) and one great earthquake
52
Disaster Risk Management Policy
53
(8.0 or above) in any given year. However, let us take a look at what has happened in the past 32 years, from 1969 through 2001, so far. Our records show that 1992, and 1995-1997 were the only years that we have reached or exceeded the long-term average number of major earthquakes since 1971. In 1970 and in 1971 we had 20 and 19 major earthquakes, respectively, but in other years, the total was in many cases well below the 18 per year, which we may expect based on the long-term average. A temporal increase in earthquake activity does not mean that a large earthquake is about to happen. Similarly, quiescence, or the lack of seismicity, does not mean a large earthquake is going to happen.
2
DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT POLICY
Introduction This Disaster Risk Management Policy has been developed in the context of an increase in the number and seriousness of disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean, and the awareness that disasters have significant bearing on the economic and social development of most countries in the region, affecting disproportionately the poorest countries and people. This policy, which emphasizes risk reduction, is intended to improve the institutional and policy framework of the Bank to support disaster risk management in order to help protect the socioeconomic development of borrowing member countries and improve the effectiveness of the Bank's assistance. A proactive stance to reduce the toll of disasters in the region requires a comprehensive approach with an emphasis on actions taken before a hazard results in a disaster rather than on post disaster recovery. This approach seeks to make disaster risk prevention an integral part of governance. It involves the following set of activities: risk analysis to identify the types and magnitude of potential impacts faced by member countries and that affect development investments; prevention and mitigation measures to address the structural and nonstructural sources of vulnerability; financial protection and risk transfer to spread financial risks over time and among different actors; emergency preparedness and response to enhance a country's readiness to cope quickly and effectively with an emergency; and post-disaster rehabilitation and
Question: Do earthquakes cause volcanoes? Answer: No, there are different earth processes responsible for volcanoes. Earthquakes may occur in an area before, during, and after a volcanic eruption, but they are the result of the active forces connected with the eruption, and not the cause of volcanic activity.
54
55
reconstruction to support effective recovery, and to safeguard against future disasters. The Bank recognizes that adequate institutional capacities and a meaningful participation of civil society are particularly important to manage risks related to natural hazards at the regional, national and local levels and for the successful achievement of this policy's objectives. The Bank will make an additional effort to take into account: the incentive structures and competing priorities influencing investment decisions for disaster risk management by national, regional or local governments; the increased role of private sector investment and public/private sector partnerships; improvements in the quality of and access to information through research and new technologies; the growing importance of regional and global challenges and opportunities, and the need for inter-agency coordination for effective action. The Bank acknowledges that development processes such as rapid urbanization and environmental degradation may influence vulnerability to natural hazards and that vulnerability is often gender and poverty specific. Objectives The purpose of the Bank's disaster risk management policy is to guide the Bank's efforts to assist its borrowers in reducing risks emanating from natural hazards and in managing disasters, in order to support the attainment of their social and economic development goals.
Areas of Coverage The Disaster Risk Management Policy applies to the InterAmerican Development Bank (IDB), in both its public and private sector activities, and to the Multilateral Investment Fund (MIF). Activities and instruments subject to this policy include the development and implementation of country strategies and country programme dialogues, financial and nonfinancial products, public and private sector operations, financial intermediation, and relevant aspects of the Bank's project procurement practices. This policy provides two lines of action addressing: (i) the prevention and mitigation of disasters that occur as a result of natural hazards, through programming and proactive project work at regional, national and local levels; and (ii) post disaster response to the impacts of natural hazard events, and physical damage (such as structural collapse and explosions) resulting from technological accidents or other types of disasters resulting from human activity. With respect to natural hazards, this policy covers the range of events from low frequency/high consequence hazards to high frequency/low consequence hazards. High consequence hazards typically result in a "declared" disaster that exceeds the coping ability of the affected country or community using its own resources. When high frequency/low consequence hazards (such as frequent floods, forest fires or droughts) are poorly managed they can have significant cumulative impacts on a country's efforts to reduce poverty and attain social equity objectives, as well as on its economic development. The Bank does not have a comparative advantage in the area of humanitarian assistance. Such assistance should only be addressed through emergency technical cooperations (as described in Directive B-3) or through non-IDB sources. Key Definitions "Disaster," as used in this policy, refers to a serious disruption of the functioning of a society, community or project causing widespread or serious human, material, economic or
The policy has two interrelated specific objectives: (i) To strengthen the Bank's effectiveness in supporting its borrowers to systematically manage risks related to natural hazards by identifying these risks, reducing vulnerability and by preventing and mitigating related disasters before they occur; and (ii) To facilitate rapid and appropriate assistance by the Bank to its borrowing member countries in response to disasters in an effort to efficiently revitalize their development efforts and avoid rebuilding vulnerability. (iii) Scope.
56
57
environmental losses, which exceed the coping ability of the affected society, community or project using its own resources. "Natural hazard" refers to natural processes or phenomena affecting the biosphere that may constitute a damaging event. Such hazards include: earthquakes, windstorms, hurricanes, landslides, tidal waves, volcanic eruptions, floods, frosts, forest fires and drought, or a combination thereof. Hazards emanating from climatic variations such as those linked to the El Nino phenomenons are covered by this policy. "Vulnerability" is a condition determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards. "Disaster risk management" is the systematic process that integrates risk identification, mitigation and transfer, as well as disaster preparedness to reduce the impacts of future disasters. It incorporates emergency response, rehabilitation and reconstruction to lessen the impacts of current disasters while avoiding rebuilding vulnerability. Areas outside the Present Policy The prevention and mitigation of disasters caused by social and political violence (also referred to as conflict-driven disasters) will be treated separately from this policy since the planning and application of policies, strategies and measures that identify and reduce risks associated with these events are very different than those necessary to prevent and mitigate natural hazards. The prevention of technological hazards will be managed as part of the Bank's regular project design and implementation process in accordance with applicable sector policies. Bank activities to address and revert environmental degradation, which may be an underlying reason for increased vulnerability to natural hazards and in some case increased hazards, will be managed through the Bank's Environment and Safeguards Compliance Policy, which also provides safeguards to ensure that all Bank operations and activities are environmentally sustainable. Epidemics and pandemics such as HIV/AIDS are outside the policy scope. These are covered
by the Bank's Public Health Policy. Lending operations to address financial emergencies are treated through the Bank's Emergency Lending Guidelines. Risk management related to the Bank's personnel and installations is covered in the Bank's Business Continuity Plan.
Directives The following directives provide the principles that the Bank will follow to manage disaster risk related to programming and project work in both the public and private sectors, and the Bank's response to a disaster.
Risk Management through Programming and Operations
Programming Dialogue with borrowing member countries. The Bank will seek to include the discussion on proactive disaster risk management in the dialogue agenda with borrowing member countries. The Bank will give due consideration to vulnerability associated with natural hazards and risk management in relation to the priority areas of intervention discussed and agreed with the borrowers for the development of country and regional strategies, and operational programmes.
The Bank will identify countries according to their level of exposure to natural hazards based on existing indicators and Bank experience. For countries that are highly exposed to natural hazards the Bank will identify their potential vulnerability as a major development challenge and propose a country level disaster risk assessment. When the assessments identify that potentially important disruptions in the country's social and economic development could be caused by disasters resulting from natural hazards, the Bank will encourage the inclusion of disaster risk management activities in the country strategy and operational programme agreed with the borrower. These may include policy reforms, and specific institutional strengthening and land use planning activities, measures of financial protection such as through risk transfer, and investment projects conducive to reducing vulnerability at the national, regional and municipal levels.
58
59
Where the natural hazards may affect more than one country, the Bank will encourage regional approach within the existing programming framework. The Bank will promote the use of the Disaster Prevention Sector Facility and the Disaster Prevention Fund described in Section V of this policy and other means it offers to finance the recommended actions resulting from the assessment process. Risk and Project Viability Identification and reduction of project risk. Bank-financed public and private sector projects will include the necessary measures to reduce disaster risk to acceptable levels as determined by the Bank on the basis of generally accepted standards and practices. The Bank will not finance projects that, according to its analysis, would increase the threat of loss of human life, significant human injuries, severe economic disruption or significant property damage related to natural hazards. During the project preparation process project teams will identify if the projects have high exposure to natural hazards or show high potential to exacerbate risk. The findings will be reported to the Bank through the social and environmental project screening and classification process. Project teams should consider the risk of exposure to natural hazards by taking into account the projected distribution in frequency, duration and intensity of hazard events in the geographic area affecting the project. Project teams will carry out a natural hazard risk assessment for projects that are found to be highly exposed to natural hazards or to have a high potential to exacerbate risk. Special care should be taken to assess risk for projects that are located in areas that are highly prone to disasters as well as sectors such as housing, energy, water and sanitation, infrastructure, industrial and agricultural development, and critical health and education installations, as applicable. In the analysis of risk and project viability, consideration should be given to both structural and non-structural mitigation measures. This includes specific attention to the capacity of the
relevant national institutions to enforce proper design and construction standards and of the financial provisions for proper maintenance of physical assets commensurate with the foreseen risk. When significant risks due to natural hazard are identified at any time throughout the project preparation process, appropriate measures should be taken to establish the viability of the project, including the protection of population and investments affected by Bank financed activities. Alternative prevention and mitigation measures that decrease vulnerability must be analyzed and included in project design and implementation as applicable. These measures should include safety and contingency planning to protect human health and economic assets. Expert opinion and adherence to international standards should be sought, where reasonably necessary. In the case of physical assets, the Bank will require that, at the time of project preparation, the borrower establish protocols to carry out periodic safety evaluations (during construction as well as during the operating life of the project) and appropriate maintenance of the project equipment and works, in accordance with generally accepted industry norms under the circumstances. The Bank's social and environmental project screening and classification process will evaluate the steps taken by project teams to identify and reduce natural hazard risk. Post Disaster Operations In order to provide timely assistance at different stages after a disaster, the Bank may employ special procedures for processing and reformulating loans to streamline preparation and expedite execution, including the Bank's Special Procurement Procedures for Emergency Situations. Loan Reformulation Redirecting resources from existing loans. The Bank may approve the reformulation of existing loans in execution in response to disasters if: (i) a state of emergency or disaster has been officially declared by the government; (ii) the impact of the loan reformulation has been estimated taking into account the intended uses and project objectives of the loan or loans
60
61
to be reformulated relative to the new proposed use of the funds, thereby creating the conditions for more informed decisions on the part of the approving authorities; (iii) adequate transparency and sufficient mechanisms for monitoring, auditing and reporting the use of the redirected funds is in place, while taking into account the need of a timely response given the nature of the situation; and (iv) a significant share of the redirected funds will be earmarked to reduce the borrower's vulnerability to future disasters and improve the country's capacity for comprehensive disaster risk management. Reconstruction Avoiding rebuilding vulnerability. Operations that finance rehabilitation and reconstruction after a disaster require special precautions to avoid rebuilding or increasing vulnerability. These include the precautions mentioned in A-2, as well as correcting deficiencies in risk management policies and institutional capacity as reflected in A-1. A significant share of the new investment will be earmarked to reduce vulnerability to future disasters and improve the country's capacity for comprehensive disaster risk management. Particular attention must be given to lessons learned from recent hazard events. The Bank will not assume that pre-disaster conditions persist in whole or in part in the affected area. Disaster risk assessment of the reconstruction project should be carried out taking into account the specifics of the area, the sector and the infrastructure concerned, as well as the current environmental, social and economic situation and any changes in the affected area as a result of the disaster. Humanitarian Assistance Limited Bank role. Humanitarian assistance with Bank funding may be granted only if a state of emergency or disaster has been officially declared by the government. This funding will be provided only through emergency technical cooperations, to be implemented during or immediately after a disaster. The resources should be administered by international or local aid organizations specialized in humanitarian assistance. The
Bank's representative, in coordination with the government of the beneficiary country, is responsible for identifying the aid organizations that will receive the funding and administer the assistance. In the event that the Bank enters into a future agreement to administer resources provided by outside sources that include humanitarian assistance among the activities eligible for financing, this assistance should be designed in a manner that is consistent with the principles set out in the present policy. Policy Implementation This policy enters into effect three months after its approval by the Board of Executive Directors. This will allow sufficient time to implement administrative changes and procedures within the institution. The policy will apply to operations that enter the Bank's pipeline after the date the policy enters into effect. To support this policy, Bank management will issue specific guidelines on how to apply the policy's principles and each of its directives. The guidelines may be updated by management from time to time as necessary to reflect lessons learned and emerging good practices. The guidelines and the companion paper to this policy will include a complete list of definitions. The Bank will use its standard procedures including those of the environmental classification and screening process for monitoring performance and evaluating compliance with the directives set out in this policy. The Bank will have an independent evaluation carried out three years after the policy enters into effect, to assess its impact on Bank activities, particularly concerning the integration of disaster risk management in the programming process as outlined in A-1 and disaster risk management in the project cycle as outlined in A-2. The Bank will publicly report its experience with the implementation of this policy and the achievement of its objectives. The Bank has several specialized instruments at its disposal that contribute to the implementation of this policy. These instruments may be used to assist its borrowing member
62
63
countries in managing disaster risk, in addition to the Bank's regular lending and technical cooperation mechanisms. They include, interalia, the Disaster Prevention Sector Facility, the Disaster Prevention Fund and the Multidonor Disaster Prevention Trust Fund that provide financing for the identification, prevention or mitigation of risk, and preparation for disasters. Instruments for post disaster operations include the Immediate Response Facility (link), the Emergency Technical Cooperation (link), and the Special Procurement Procedures for Emergency Situations (link). The Bank will review existing instruments and may establish new mechanisms to increase its efficiency and effectiveness. The policy cannot specifically encompass all circumstances, and consequently, it is conceivable that departures from one or more of the directives in the policy may need to be considered. In such circumstances, proposals advocating a departure in either programming activities or in project development and execution must demonstrate the exceptional characteristics of the situation that justify the departure. Project proposals with deviations from the policy should include the measures to mitigate the associated effects and formally request any specific exceptions to the policy. Relation to Other Policies This policy will supersede OP-704 on Natural and Unexpected Disasters. This policy will be implemented in a manner that is consistent with all relevant Bank policies and strategies. Operational departments currently states that the country strategy process is considered initiated once an Annotated Outline, Issues Paper or Policy Dialogue Paper has been created). Terminology: Basic terms of Disaster Risk Reduction The ISDR Secretariat presents these basic definitions on disaster risk reduction in order to promote a common understanding on this subject, for use by the public, authorities and practitioners. The terms are based on a broad consideration of different international sources. This is a continuing effort to be reflected in future reviews, responding to a need expressed
in several international venues, regional discussions and national commentary. Feedback from specialists and other practitioners to improve these definitions will be most welcome. Acceptable Risk The level of loss a society or community considers acceptable given existing social, economic, political, cultural, technical and environmental conditions. In engineering terms, acceptable risk is also used to assess structural and non-structural measures undertaken to reduce possible damage at a level which does not harm people and property, according to codes or "accepted practice" based, among other issues, on a known probability of hazard. Biological Hazard Processes of organic origin or those conveyed by biological vectors, including exposure to pathogenic micro-organisms, toxins and bioactive substances, which may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation. Examples of biological hazards: outbreaks of epidemic diseases, plant or animal contagion, insect plagues and extensive infestations. Building Codes Ordinances and regulations controlling the design, construction, materials, alteration and occupancy of any structure to insure human safety and welfare. Building codes include both technical and functional standards. Capacity A combination of all the strengths and resources available within a community, society or organization that can reduce the level of risk, or the effects of a disaster. Capacity may include physical, institutional, social or economic means as well as skilled personal or collective attributes such as leadership and management. Capacity may also be described as capability. Capacity Building Efforts aimed to develop human skills or societal infrastructures within a community or organization needed to
64
65
reduce the level of risk. In extended understanding, capacity building also includes development of institutional, financial, political and other resources, such as technology at different levels and sectors of the society. Climate Change The climate of a place or region is changed if over an extended period (typically decades or longer) there is a statistically significant change in measurements of either the mean state or variability of the climate for that place or region. Changes in climate may be due to natural processes or to persistent anthropogenic changes in atmosphere or in land use. Note that the definition of climate change used in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is more restricted, as it includes only those changes which are attributable directly or indirectly to human activity. Coping Capacity The means by which people or organizations use available resources and abilities to face adverse consequences that could lead to a disaster. In general, this involves managing resources, both in normal times as well as during crises or adverse conditions. The strengthening of coping capacities usually builds resilience to withstand the effects of natural and human-induced hazards. Counter Measures All measures taken to counter and reduce disaster risk. They most commonly refer to engineering (structural) measures but can also include non-structural measures and tools designed and employed to avoid or limit the adverse impact of natural hazards and related environmental and technological disasters. Disaster A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources. A disaster is a function of the risk process. It results from the combination
of hazards, conditions of vulnerability and insufficient capacity or measures to reduce the potential negative consequences of risk. Disaster Risk Management The systematic process of using administrative decisions, organization, operational skills and capacities to implement policies, strategies and coping capacities of the society and communities to lessen the impacts of natural hazards and related environmental and technological disasters. This comprises all forms of activities, including structural and nonstructural measures to avoid (prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) adverse effects of hazards. Disaster Risk Reduction (Disaster Reduction) The conceptual framework of elements considered with the possibilities to minimize vulnerabilities and disaster risks throughout a society, to avoid (prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) the adverse impacts of hazards, within the broad context of sustainable development. The disaster risk reduction framework is composed of the following fields of action, as described in ISDR's publication 2002 "Living with Risk: a global review of disaster reduction initiatives", page 23: Risk awareness and assessment including hazard analysis and vulnerability/capacity analysis; Knowledge development including education, training, research and information; Public commitment and institutional frameworks, including organisational, policy, legislation and community action; Application of measures including environmental management, land-use and urban planning, protection of critical facilities, application of science and technology, partnership and networking, and financial instruments; Early warning systems including forecasting, dissemination of warnings, preparedness measures and reaction capacities.
66
67
Early Warning The provision of timely and effective information, through identified institutions, that allows individuals exposed to a hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective response. Early warning systems include a chain of concerns, namely: understanding and mapping the hazard; monitoring and forecasting impending events; processing and disseminating understandable warnings to political authorities and the population, and undertaking appropriate and timely actions in response to the warnings. Ecosystem A complex set of relationships of living organisms functioning as a unit and interacting with their physical environment. The boundaries of what could be called an ecosystem are somewhat arbitrary, depending on the focus of interest or study. Thus the extent of an ecosystem may range from very small spatial scales to, ultimately, the entire Earth (IPCC, 2001). El Nino-southern Oscillation (ENSO) A complex interaction of the tropical Pacific Ocean and the global atmosphere that results in irregularly occurring episodes of changed ocean and weather patterns in many parts of the world, often with significant impacts, such as altered marine habitats, rainfall changes, floods, droughts, and changes in storm patterns. The El Nino part of ENSO refers to the well-above-average ocean temperatures along the coasts of Ecuador, Peru and northern Chile and across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, while the Southern Oscillation refers to the associated global patterns of changed atmospheric pressure and rainfall. La Nina is approximately the opposite condition to El Nino. Each El Nino or La Nina episode usually lasts for several seasons. Emergency Management The organization and management of resources and responsibilities for dealing with all aspects of emergencies, in
particularly preparedness, response and rehabilitation. Emergency management involves plans, structures and arrangements established to engage the normal endeavours of government, voluntary and private agencies in a comprehensive and coordinated way to respond to the whole spectrum of emergency needs. This is also known as disaster management. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Studies undertaken in order to assess the effect on a specified environment of the introduction of any new factor, which may upset the current ecological balance. EIA is a policy making tool that serves to provide evidence and analysis of environmental impacts of activities from conception to decision-making. It is utilised extensively in national programming and for international development assistance projects. An EIA must include a detailed risk assessment and provide alternatives solutions or options. Environmental Degradation The reduction of the capacity of the environment to meet social and ecological objectives, and needs. Potential effects are varied and may contribute to an increase in vulnerability and the frequency and intensity of natural hazards.
Some Examples: Land degradation, deforestation, desertification, wildland fires, loss of biodiversity, land, water and air pollution, climate change, sea level rise and ozone depletion.
Forecast Definite statement or statistical estimate of the occurrence of a future event (UNESCO, WMO). This term is used with different meanings in different disciplines. Geological Hazard Natural earth processes or phenomena that may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation. Geological hazard includes internal earth processes or tectonic origin, such as
68
69
earthquakes, geological fault activity, tsunamis, volcanic activity and emissions as well as external processes such as mass movements: landslides, rockslides, rock falls or avalanches, surfaces collapses, expansive soils and debris or mud flows. Geological hazards can be single, sequential or combined in their origin and effects. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Analysis that combine relational databases with spatial interpretation and outputs often in form of maps. A more elaborate definition is that of computer programmes for capturing, storing, checking, integrating, analysing and displaying data about the earth that is spatially referenced. Geographical information systems are increasingly being utilised for hazard and vulnerability mapping and analysis, as well as for the application of disaster risk management measures. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) A gas, such as water-vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), that absorbs and re-emits infrared radiation, warming the earth's surface and contributing to climate change (UNEP, 1998). Hazard A potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity that may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation. Hazards can include latent conditions that may represent future threats and can have different origins: natural (geological, hydrometeorological and biological) or induced by human processes (environmental degradation and technological hazards). Hazards can be single, sequential or combined in their origin and effects. Each hazard is characterised by its location, intensity, frequency and probability. Hazard Analysis Identification, studies and monitoring of any hazard to determine its potential, origin, characteristics and behaviour.
Hydrometeorological Hazards Natural processes or phenomena of atmospheric, hydrological or oceanographic nature, which may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation. Hydrometeorological hazards include: floods, debris and mud floods; tropical cyclones, storm surges, thunder/hailstorms, rain and wind storms, blizzards and other severe storms; drought, desertification, wildland fires, temperature extremes, sand or dust storms; permafrost and snow or ice avalanches. Hydrometeorological hazards can be single, sequential or combined in their origin and effects.
LA NINA
Land-use Planning Branch of physical and socio-economic planning that determines the means and assesses the values or limitations of various options in which land is to be utilized, with the corresponding effects on different segments of the population or interests of a community taken into account in resulting decisions. Land-use planning involves studies and mapping, analysis of environmental and hazard data, formulation of alternative land-use decisions and design of a long-range plan for different geographical and administrative scales. Land-use planning can help to mitigate disasters and reduce risks by discouraging high-density settlements and construction of key installations in hazard-prone areas, control of population density and expansion, and in the siting of service routes for transport, power, water, sewage and other critical facilities. Mitigation Structural and non-structural measures undertaken to limit the adverse impact of natural hazards, environmental degradation and technological hazards. Natural Hazards Natural processes or phenomena occurring in the biosphere that may constitute a damaging event. Natural hazards can
70
71
be classified by origin namely: geological, hydrometeorological or biological. Hazardous events can vary in magnitude or intensity, frequency, duration, area of extent, speed of onset, spatial dispersion and temporal spacing. Preparedness Activities and measures taken in advance to ensure effective response to the impact of hazards, including the issuance of timely and effective early warnings and the temporary evacuation of people and property from threatened locations. Prevention Activities to provide outright avoidance of the adverse impact of hazards and means to minimize related environmental, technological and biological disasters. Depending on social and technical feasibility and cost/benefit considerations, investing in preventive measures is justified in areas frequently affected by disasters. In the context of public awareness and education, related to disaster risk reduction changing attitudes and behaviour contribute to promoting a "culture of prevention". Public Awareness The processes of informing the general population, increasing levels of consciousness about risks and how people can act to reduce their exposure to hazards. This is particularly important for public officials in fulfilling their responsibilities to save lives and property in the event of a disaster. Public awareness activities foster changes in behaviour leading towards a culture of risk reduction. This involves public information, dissemination, education, radio or television broadcasts, use of printed media, as well as, the establishment of information centres and networks and community and participation actions. Public Information Information, facts and knowledge provided or learned as a result of research or study, available to be disseminated to the public. Recovery Decisions and actions taken after a disaster with a view to restoring or improving the pre-disaster living conditions of the
stricken community, while encouraging and facilitating necessary adjustments to reduce disaster risk. Recovery (rehabilitation and reconstruction) affords an opportunity to develop and apply disaster risk reduction measures. Relief/Response The provision of assistance or intervention during or immediately after a disaster to meet the life preservation and basic subsistence needs of those people affected. It can be of an immediate, short-term, or protracted duration. Resilience/Resilient The capacity of a system, community or society potentially exposed to hazards to adapt, by resisting or changing in order to reach and maintain an acceptable level of functioning and structure. This is determined by the degree to which the social system is capable of organizing itself to increase its capacity for learning from past disasters for better future protection and to improve risk reduction measures. Retrofitting (or Upgrading) Reinforcement of structures to become more resistant and resilient to the forces of natural hazards. Retrofitting involves consideration of changes in the mass, stiffness, damping, load path and ductility of materials, as well as radical changes such as the introduction of energy absorbing dampers and base isolation systems. Examples of retrofitting includes the consideration of wind loading to strengthen and minimize the wind force, or in earthquake prone areas, the strengthening of structures. Risk The probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses (deaths, injuries, property, livelihoods, economic activity disrupted or environment damaged) resulting from interactions between natural or human-induced hazards and vulnerable conditions. Conventionally Risk is Expressed by the Notation Risk = Hazards Vulnerability. Some disciplines also include the concept of exposure to refer particularly to the
72
73
physical aspects of vulnerability. Beyond expressing a possibility of physical harm, it is crucial to recognize that risks are inherent or can be created or exist within social systems. It is important to consider the social contexts in which risks occur and that people therefore do not necessarily share the same perceptions of risk and their underlying causes. Risk Assessment/Analysis A methodology to determine the nature and extent of risk by analysing potential hazards and evaluating existing conditions of vulnerability that could pose a potential threat or harm to people, property, livelihoods and the environment on which they depend. The process of conducting a risk assessment is based on a review of both the technical features of hazards such as their location, intensity, frequency and probability; and also the analysis of the physical, social, economic and environmental dimensions of vulnerability and exposure, while taking particular account of the coping capabilities pertinent to the risk scenarios. Structural/Non-structural Measures Structural measures refer to any physical construction to reduce or avoid possible impacts of hazards, which include engineering measures and construction of hazard-resistant and protective structures and infrastructure. Non-structural measures refer to policies, awareness, knowledge development, public commitment, and methods and operating practices, including participatory mechanisms and the provision of information, which can reduce risk and related impacts. Sustainable Development Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. It contains within it two key concepts: the concept of "needs", in particular the essential needs of the world's poor, to which overriding priority should be given; and the idea of limitations
imposed by the state of technology and social organization on the environment's ability to meet present and the future needs. (Brundtland Commission, 1987). Sustainable development is based on socio-cultural development, political stability and decorum, economic growth and ecosystem protection, which all relate to disaster risk reduction. Technological Hazards Danger originating from technological or industrial accidents, dangerous procedures, infrastructure failures or certain human activities, which may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation.
Some Examples: Industrial pollution, nuclear activities and radioactivity, toxic wastes, dam failures; transport, industrial or technological accidents (explosions, fires, spills).
Vulnerability The conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards. For positive factors, which increase the ability of people to cope with hazards, see definition of capacity. Wildland Fire Any fire occurring in vegetation areas regardless of ignition sources, damages or benefits. People Protection
No Security Unless you are Prepared for a Time of Need: A time of need is when the unexpected happens. The present international situations do not exclude the possibility of Japan being subjected to armed attacks or large-scale terrorist attacks. The fire services' responsibility is to start rescue activities in the shortest possible time as a partner that is close to residents by going straight to the scene. To save as many lives as possible in a disaster stricken area, which may extend over quite a large territory, it is necessary to act immediately.
74
75
We are required to conduct speedy and smooth operations to convey a warning notice precisely and securely, guide people beyond prefectural borders for safe evacuation, and inject the sufficient quantity of materials and equipment necessary for rescue or fire-fighting operations. Development of a legal system steadfast in handling national crisis and a system to mitigate damage from an armed attack (People Protection Law). The People Protection Law was legislated and promulgated in June 2004. Under the law, the national government is now obligated to develop a full security system for the entire country to ensure people's safety, including the proper and prompt implementation of measures to protect people, using its own initiative and employing every available resource including its organization and functions. Fire and Disaster Management Agency will take charge of liaison and coordination with autonomous bodies in addition to notification of warnings and evacuation instructions, recommendation in guiding people beyond prefectural borders for evacuation, and for personal safety information gathering and provision. Having established two offices, the People Protection Office and the People Protection Management Office, to fulfil these responsibilities, Fire and Disaster Management Agency will continue to enhance organizations essential for the implementation of measures to protect people in the future. Enhancement of Autonomous Body Capabilities It is autonomous bodies that play important roles in conveying alarms, providing evacuation instructions and giving guidance to people, and carrying out fire fighting and rescue operations in a disaster caused by an armed attack or a largescale terrorist attack. For this reason, Fire and Disaster Management Agency provides support to establish effective organizations at autonomous body levels, gives education and training to their personnel, and deploys and builds up the necessary inventories of materials and equipment.
Matters related to Fire and Disaster Management in the People Protection Law
Tasks of Fire Services Fire services must protect the lives and properties of citizens from fires by armed attacks by using its facilities and members and prevent and minimize the damage from armed attacks. Guiding Evacuees City or village mayor must guide evacuees to a safe place by commanding city employees, chief of fire defence headquarters, chief of Volunteer Fire Corps, etc. City employees, fire department members and members of Volunteer Fire Corps may issue necessary warnings or instructions. Fire service personnel may prohibit people's access to a dangerous place and conduct evacuation or other necessary measures (in case there is no policeman at the site.) Finder's Obligation to Inform Those who find symptoms of disaster by armed attacks shall report to city mayor, village mayor, fire service personnel, policemen, etc. Instructions of the Director General of the Fire and Disaster Management Agency Instruction to Governor Instructions to mayors of cities and villages Instruction related to support Securing safety related to fire and disaster management
Under the Mission of Protecting People's Lives from Terrorism Fire and Disaster Management Agency requested the prefectural governments to check and enhance their risk management systems and improve their arrangements for vigilance as a measure against terrorism with the present Iraq situation in mind. Further, it has developed cooperative arrangements with the police and the self-defence force as it
76
77
is essential to enhance cooperation between the fire defence organizations in implementing adequate measures to control terrorist attacks. Considering the NBC (nuclear, biological, and chemical hazard) model proposed by the national government for cooperation of the relevant organs for controlling terrorist attacks, Fire and Disaster Management Agency has requested that prefectural governments develop specific programmes to ensure their functionality according to the distribution of responsibility and activities suiting the local conditions. Following this request, the prefectural governments are making efforts to coordinate and enhance cooperation with the relevant organs with emphasis on relatively large fire defence headquarters by organizing joint drills with a view to terrorist attacks involving NBC. Development of Materials and Equipment to Control Terrorist Attacks involving NBC To act promptly against a terrorist attack involving NBC, while ensuring the safety of firefighters, special materials and equipment for personal protection and hazard detection will become necessary. Fire and Disaster Management Agency is rendering support, for example by means of loaning free of charge pressurized chemical protection garments, mobile detectors for biological hazards, etc., to regional fire defence headquarters to ensure smooth deployment of the necessary materials and equipment to the regions needing them for the purpose of enhancing their ability to control disasters from NBC terrorism. Further, it has developed an NBC terrorism manual targeting the fire service personnel and members of Volunteer Fire Corps throughout the country and distributed it to the fire stations and Volunteer Fire Corps in the country. In the Fire and Disaster Management College, trainees are given education and training specifically addressing NBC terrorism to improve fire service personnel' skills in this aspect.
Fire Services Fire and Disaster Management Agency links about 1,600 fire departments and about 3,200 branch stations throughout the country as a network. Practical fire-fighting activity must always consider emerging risks to ensure its effectiveness when applied to fires and disasters expected to grow in their complexity and diversity in the future. In enhancing fire-fighting ability at regional levels, it is important to improve the skills of fire service personnel employed in fire defence headquarters, etc., and deploy state-of-the-art materials and equipment. In addition, the Fire and Disaster Management Agency intends to continue its effort to improve the working environment so that fire service personnel may perform their duties safely and efficiently, and it will also endeavour to develop and improve the comprehensive firefighting ability in each region centring on permanent fire defence forces and Volunteer Fire Corps. Over 1 million fire service personnel working on the fire fighting fronts in the country. Permanent fire defence forces mean fire departments and branch stations operated under cities, towns, and villages, which employ dedicated personnel for fire services. Permanent fire defence forces of the country consist of about 1,55,000 fire service personnel and 10 to 100 firemen are deployed to each fire station according to the actual conditions of the area. Such a large number of fire service professionals covering the entire country as a network are keeping their watchful eyes on our society, ensuring people's safety 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. In each city, town, and village, there are people devoting themselves to fire services as a members of Volunteer Fire Corps. Volunteer Fire Corps encompass about 928,000 members who have other professions for a living. Volunteer Fire Corps were born from necessity and have developed to date according to the respective communities' needs. It is the Fire and Disaster Management Agency's responsibility to improve the environment to facilitate the full utilization of the abilities of the roughly 1 million fire service personnel and members of
78
79
Volunteer Fire Corps working on fronts across the country. Further, to enhance fire-fighting capability on the regional level, the Agency is promoting research into the forms of fire services desired by residents and their suitability for each city, town, or village while promoting the deployment of materials and equipment including high-performance fire-fighting vehicles such as fire engines and chemical fire engines. Timely, adequate action to control the 60,000 fires that occur in a year. Everybody has seen in his/her life a red fire engine hurrying to the site blowing its siren loudly. While fire-fighting vehicles include various types, such as fire engines, ladder trucks, and rescue vehicles to name a few, the mobilized firefighters are also assigned various roles. There are firefighters engaged in direct fire-fighting activities using water hoses and impulse guns, those giving first aid to the injured and transporting them to hospitals, and those engaged exclusively in life-saving activity. At a fire site, a large number of fire-fighters with speciality skills are playing their roles in a smooth, organized manner, fulfilling the respective tasks assigned to them. Fire and Disaster Management Agency is constructing a system to ensure safer, surer fire-fighting activity including the production of a behavioural manual that considers every possibility at a fire site, for which one will never find any parallels. Stern Drill Simulating a Fire Site Fire-fighters participate in drills as part of their routine, which simulate the conditions exactly the same as those of actual fire sites, except that the fire is controlled for the purpose of training. Wearing a full outfit, such as a protection garment and a respirator, an ordinary person would find it difficult to do anything due to its weight. Wearing a personal outfit weighing around 30kg and holding a water hose, a firefighter climbs a ladder. In some cases, he runs around wearing the same outfit and holding a dummy weighing as much as a heavy adult man. At a fire site, fire-fighters can never stop working for their own reasons. Since they know their usual training may determine the life or death of a person in need of help on a fire site, they undertake training very seriously. Fire and Disaster
Management Agency supports such fire-fighters' enthusiasm for improvement of their skills with various measures. Fire Services The number of Volunteer Fire Corps established in cities, towns, and villages of the country is about 3,600, and approximately 928,000 members devote themselves to fire services in their respective communities, while they have their own occupations for a living. Their courageous act to fight against disaster is based solely on their resolution to protect their communities on their own and their sense of responsibility to live up to people's trust in them. Members of Volunteer Fire Corps are working for communities to protect people's lives and property through fire-fighting activities when a fire occurs, lifesaving and rescue activity, patrolling and guidance for evacuation in a natural disaster, such as an earthquake, storm, or flood, fully utilizing their knowledge of and skills in fire fighting and disaster preventing activities acquired as members of Volunteer Fire Corps. In addition to physical training when not on call, they shoulder a variety of roles including the organization of firstaid classes, fire prevention instruction to residents, special lookout patrols, and public relations activities. Members of Volunteer Fire Corps as fire fighting and disaster preventing leaders of residents who also shoulder the roles that would otherwise be performed by a fire department in the remote islands and the towns and villages in mountains that have no fire departments. Also, in the areas where permanent fire defence forces are available, they play an imperative role, ensuring good communication with residents through preventive activities when not on call and functioning as fire fighting and rescue forces taking advantage of readily available manpower in a time of need. The mobility of Volunteer Fire Corps members, who are familiar with the geography and individual residents of the area, has made a great contribution in many a serious disaster, preventing further disaster and saving local residents. Volunteer
80
81
Fire Corps are increasing their importance under improving cooperation between them and fire departments as well as other autonomous disaster preventing organizations led by local residents. To support such activities conducted by Volunteer Fire Corps, Fire and Disaster Management Agency is providing people with disaster prevention education using the Internet and acting to encourage people to participate in Volunteer Fire Corps through PR in mail magazines, in addition to the promotion of improvement in activity environments and machinery and equipment of Volunteer Fire Corps. A Shining Volunteer Spiritin the Case of the Tokachi Offshore Earthquake In 2003, the Tokachi offshore earthquake occurred. It caused damage to Hokkaido and an extensive area surrounding it including part of the Tohoku region. It was quite a severe earthquake recording tremors registering seismic intensity of 6 minus twice in one day. As soon as the earthquake occurred, a number of Volunteer Fire Corps members began their work to remove debris or check the safety of elderly people living alone. Further, it was reported that 7,000 members of Volunteer Fire Corps in total were out in the field to look out for tsunamis, search for missing people, guide residents to safe refuges, guard against secondary disaster, cover the ground to prevent landslides and restore collapsed houses. The image of Volunteer Fire Corps is set deeply in local residents' minds as a strong spiritual support that guards their safety. Expectation for Female Members of Volunteer Fire Corps Activity More than 10,000 female members of Volunteer Fire Corps are now actively working nationwide. It is true that the changing social conditions have opened the way for utilization of women's abilities in society as an effective means to activate organizations and fulfil communities' increasing needs in the country. There is another reason that fire services involve services of high public necessity best performed with women's
affectionate, considerate minds, such as disaster prevention guidance given to ordinary homes, calls for elderly people living alone for disaster preventing instructions, guidance to spread first-aid knowledge and skills, and so on. For this reason, female members of Volunteer Fire Corps, who were very few in the initial stage, have increased steadily in number. For example, in 2002, Matsuyama city of Ehime prefecture recruited 62 female members of Volunteer Fire Corps, who give first-aid guidance to the handicapped utilizing the visual and auditory senses by mastering sign language, and their attentive performance is highly valued. Activity to improve communication with or enlighten people through web sites and newsletters is also a suitable task for female members of Volunteer Fire Corps. The number of Volunteer Fire Corps female members increased by about 8,000 for the last several years and they are expected to play more roles in the future. Desire to Spread Good Activities Invented Locally Volunteer Fire Corps continue to promote various activities contributing to the communities' disaster prevention programmes, maintaining close relations with towns when not on call, or in a time of need. Fire and Disaster Management Agency, therefore, endeavours to convey information on local Volunteer Fire Corps' innovative activities to people throughout the country. This is done because the Agency thinks that if many people learn of the actual achievements of these activities, it will become a great influence on the disaster prevention efforts of these communities. The Agency intends to continue various supportive measures to foster members of Volunteer Fire Corps' motivation such as the introduction of the activities of Volunteer Fire Corps' to the public through the Agency's web sites and other media and the institutionalization of a system to commend exemplary Volunteer Fire Corps in the name of the Commissioner of the Fire and Disaster Management Agency. First-aid, Rescue Operations
We want to save the lives that can be saved.
82
83
The required period of time for an ambulance to arrive at the site from an initial call in a fire department (119) is about 6 min. Would the result be different if first aid were performed during this period? Or, what if advanced first aid that is currently banned by law was given by Emergency Life-Saving Technician that rushes to the scene? The minutes required to transport a person to a hospital are precious for saving life. We are promoting the institutional improvement and provide support to improve the life saving rate. Quick action determines life or death. Present pre-hospital care conditions in Japan. The number of emergency call-outs in Japan was about 4.56 million in 2002 including call-outs using helicopters (3.6% increase from the previous year). The number of persons transported by ambulance is 12,482 a day on average. This means that ambulance teams go out once every 6.9 seconds. The number of persons transported by ambulance was about 4.33 million, which means that every 1 in 29 individuals was transported to a hospital by an ambulance team. This number is expected to increase in the future, so it is not an exaggeration to say that the first aid during the period from initial call at a home to arrival at the hospital might determine the destiny of a severely injured or sick person. "A life saving chain system" for saving previous lives is a must. The starting point for such a chain is to form a system where a chain of activities from initial call to first-aid, transport and hospital for a severely injured or sick person are conducted quickly and smoothly. To promote building of such a system, Fire and Disaster Management Agency is encouraging the establishment of a higher medical control system for advanced rescue activities, such as an improvement in emergency treatment skills of rescue team members and cooperation with medical institutions. At the same time, we will promote the planned deployments of the emergency rescue equipment necessary for providing advanced first aid.
Improvement of Emergency Life-Saving Technician Programme and its Effect

If a moving ambulance is a kind of general hospital, more persons might be saved. Or, even if it is difficult for it to be a general hospital, what if it has functions for sending electrocardiogram or X-ray data of severely injured or sick persons to medical doctors? In the near future, such a medical system might become a reality. The present concerns are how to transport severely injured or sick persons to a medical institution as soon as possible while improving the pre-hospital care that is provided. When transporting a severely injured or sick person, only an Emergency Life-Saving Technician can perform the approved advanced emergency care. If the range of pre-hospital emergency care were expanded, it is estimated that the precious lives of more than 1,000 persons a year could be saved. Currently, about 13,000 ambulance team members out of about 58,000 have been qualified as Emergency Life-Saving Technicians. The emergency life saving technician programme was introduced in 1991 to improve the approved first aid given at the rescue site and transport by ambulance and the range of approved treatments by rescue team members was expanded. They have produced great advancements in life saving for patients with cardiac and respiratory arrests as well as further developments in other areas of advanced life saving activities. And due to some expanding of the range of emergency care they can give, more improvement can be expected. The clearest improvement is an approval of electrical shock treatment since April 2003. Although only about one year has passed, many precious lives have actually been saved. At the same time, an additional new treatment for supplying oxygen by inserting a tube into the trachea via the mouth will be approved starting July 2004, and cardiac treatment, which is helpful in restoring the heartbeat, will be approved starting April 2006. However, it goes without saying that it is necessary for Emergency Life-Saving Technicians to update their medical knowledge and know-how to operate this medical equipment.
84
85
First-aid, Rescue Operations Considering that the average time of ambulance arrival on site is about 6 minutes and that 50% of the victims die in about 3 minutes after cardiac arrest, the first aid made by bystanders (persons who happen to be present at the site) is thought to be a very important key for life saving. Thus, there is no doubt that many lives can be saved if skills and knowledge of first aid were widely acquired by the general public. Fire and Disaster Management Agency established the " Implementation manual on promotion activities to diffuse and enlighten first-aid" in March 1993. According to these procedures, Fire and Disaster Management Agency is implementing improved practical guidance so that even ordinary people can perform cardiopulmonary resuscitation for a person after cardiac arrest. The number of students attending the lecture was around 250,000 in 1994, but it has gradually increased and exceeded 1.02 million during 2002. Currently, it is popular to learn certain first aid skills at local fire stations.
Special Rescue Teams are Reliable in an Emergency It is a member of a rescue team who first grabs the hand of a person who needs help. People who need help are those who remained on an island in a swollen river, are in distress on a mountain with a help sign, or who are confined in an automobile in an accident. Rescue team members are professionals who rush to dangerous disaster sites where people who need help are in critical condition, and then bring the distressed persons out alive. It is a professional team with courage that undertakes rescue activities in any dangerous situation, such as fires, traffic accidents, explosions, drownings, natural disasters, and distress in the mountains. A rescue team consists of two groups one that has been given advanced special instruction and training required for rescue activities, and one that has rescue vehicles full of supplies and equipment. Special rescue teams numbering 1,493 are deployed at 859 fire defence headquarters with a total number of team members of about 24,000.
It is a duty to deploy a special rescue team in cities with a population of 100,000 or more. Rescue activities have become more complex and diversified recently, and the supplies and equipment special rescue teams require have become more sophisticated and specialized. In view of this, the Fire and Disaster Management Agency is preparing a subsidy for local governments to purchase these. Special Hard Training for Rescue Teams Hard training of rescue teams is performed in a deep diving pool using an aqualung and on a single rope at a dizzying height. A wide range of strenuous activities that simulate various emergency situations are conducted to facilitate the first priority of saving life. Rescue activities require an immediate and appropriate response to save victims in various conditions and a variety of circumstances. It goes without saying that the skills and instincts of rescue team members as specialists will determine the destiny of people's lives. A rescue team consists of selected firefighters who are brave, in good physical condition, and have excellent
Innovative life saving item: [AED (Automated External Defibrillator)] If a person collapses due to a heart problem, the cause is usually ventricular fibrillation, which, in many cases, results in a poor condition where the heart cannot supply blood to the entire body. In this situation, the most effective treatment is defibrillation (electrical shock) treatment to stimulate the cardiac muscle. Originally, only a medical doctor was allowed to perform this treatment, but Emergency Life-Saving Technicians have now been approved to perform this treatment, which now saves many lives.
Now we can say that the AED is quite useful for performing defibrillation (electrical shock). In many countries, such as the United States, many AED are deployed in public locations, such as airports. As it can be easily operated by following the audio instructions after turning the device on, any ordinary person can use it. Also in Japan, the restrictions are revised to make it available for use.
86
87
judgement. In order to be qualified, they must pass strenuous testing, so the rescue team members in their orange uniforms are well respected by other firefighters.
FIRE PREVENTION
Wish to Protect People from Present Danger What is more difficult than extinguishing a fire is preventing a fire from occurring. The Kabukicho building fire which occurred in Shinjuku ward, took as many as 44 precious lives. In order to minimize the damage caused by fire, the Fire and Disaster Management Agency is actively promoting the review of fireprevention equipment, etc. and the reformation of fire control standards. In residential fires, the number of elderly people who fail to escape and lose their lives is increasing yearly. It is our urgent task to precisely analyze the state of damage caused by fire, to install fire-prevention equipment, and to adopt measures for fire control, which minimize damage. Prevent FireIn the Worst Case, Minimize the Damage The Kabukicho building fire in Shinjuku, which occurred in September 2001, has exposed the reality that anyone can be a victim in everyday life. As many as 44 casualties in a relatively small building resulted from the careless management of the building, such as no fire door closing and no working automatic fire alarm systems. As for the staircases, which were the only lifeline, large amounts of various inflammable materials were placed on them, which caused the fire to spread rapidly. To prepare for an emergency in buildings such as the outbreak of fire, the Fire Defence Law stipulates " Standards for fire-prevention equipment and others," encouraging smooth operation of initial fire extinguishing, alarming, evacuating, and fire fighting, which minimize damage, and " Standards for fire control" for the drawing up of a fire defence plan, execution of fire drills, management of capacity venue, and other measures in preparation for the outbreak of fire, etc. led by fire marshals. Regulations have no meaning when they are not observed even if they are defined. It was a distressing fire that left bitter feelings in all persons related to fire protecting activities.
Taking this fire of Shinjuku, Kabuki-cho building as a trigger, on-site inspections were implemented simultaneously nationwide. To cope with this serious problem, the Fire and Disaster Management Agency has promoted the development of laws for correction of violations and carried out thorough measures for correction. As a result of the revised laws, the number of violations was reduced to about 45% in June 2003, then to about 36% at the year-end on December 31. Hereafter, the Fire and Disaster Management Agency will make more plans for measures for correcting violations and implement the laws for fire prevention, placing maximum priority on human life. Determined to Correct Violations and Sealing Off of Escape Routes Fire and Disaster Management Agency will back up the duties of the concerned fire defence organizations for the correction of violations in the days ahead, aiming to reduce the violation rate. It will strictly perform on-site inspections, and maintains the policy that strict law enforcement will be applied if any violation is not corrected. It takes all necessary painstaking effort for earlier correction of violations, such as extensive education of the staff of the Violation Correction Support Centre and promoting the effective utilization of a violation database. Promoting Preparedness Against Home Fires It is quite natural that we smoke once in a while, heat a room using a stove and use a small kitchen range for cooking in our daily life in a house or building. The use of " fire" is indispensable for our daily life. If we cannot use " fire," we feel very inconvenienced. If we are careless in using " fire", on the other hand, it may start a fire, which damages or harms people and buildings. The number of building fires is about 30,000 a year and 60% of the fires are house fires and 90% of deaths are due to house fires. Looking at the causes of house fires we see that the top one is cigarettes, followed by stoves and then small kitchen ranges. We can see from this data that a fire starts very near to us.
88
89
The number of deaths caused by house fires exceeded 1,000 in 2003. This is the worst record in 17 years since 1986. More than half of the deaths are people who are older than 65. We need to take urgent measures to cope with the arrival of an aging society. Considering the results of " A survey on fire fighting and rescue" conducted by the Cabinet Office in 2003, which covers the effects of residential smoke alarm systems and measures taken in Europe, the Fire and Disaster Management Agency has been promoting the development of laws to strengthen measures for preventing house fires and the Fire Service Law was revised by the Diet in 2004. The Agency will promote measures to realize a safe and secure life including promoting development of low-cost and handy home fire alarm devices. Research and Development of Scientific Technologies for Fire Prevention It is not possible to fully implement countermeasures for fires without understanding what causes them. Today, fires may occur in unexpected places due to a complexity of reasons. Preventing fires, mitigating damage, and identifying causes are not possible without the latest scientific technologies. As the centre of research and development of new fire-fighting technologies, National Research Institute of Fire and Disaster, an independent governmental body, shoulders this responsibility as the only research institute for fire and disaster in Japan. It performs research on issues socially and politically required placing full importance on the defined time limit as well as continuously conducting basic research. Research with overriding priority to be achieved within these five years are " Promotion of utilizing information technologies against fire and disaster," " Security for the weak such as older people, etc.," " Advanced technologies to support fire-fighting activities," and " Safety evaluation of dangerous materials and handling facilities." As for basic research, " Combustion phenomena of materials," And " Basic theory and application method of technologies for fire fighting," are being continuously promoted. In order to make efficient progress in this research, various activities, such as cooperative research
among industries, governmental institutions, and universities as well as international exchanges, are being implemented. Safe Use of Fuel Cells Next generation automobiles will no longer require gasoline. The leading alternative technology could be fuel cells. A fuel cell, which generates electrical power through a chemical reaction of hydrogen and oxygen, is an environmentally friendly energy source that generates less vibration and noise, and produces only water as a by-product. Strong focus worldwide is being placed on fuel cell technology, and in Japan it is expected to play a key role in stimulating the economy since the country has few natural energy resources. The government has the policy to prepare the infrastructure required to successfully introduce fuel cell technologies by 2005. Fire and Disaster Management Agency is now studying issues from the viewpoint of regulations and security. The first is the issue of extinguishing facilities to cope with fire accidents of cars equipped with fuel cells, which might occur in underground parking areas, etc. The second is the safety standard when the fuel cells are introduced in residences. The last one is the safety standard when a hydrogen supply station is installed adjacent to conventional gasoline stations. Fire and Disaster Management Agency is aiming to encourage a resolution to these issues at an early stage, in order to make use of fuel cells for people's daily life.
Utilizing the Power of Private Enterprise for Fire PreventionPromotion Programme for Scientific Fire and Disaster Prevention Technologies In order to efficiently cope with disasters, such as fire fighting, under the urban and specialized conditions faced today, the relevant agencies should make use of advanced scientific technologies much more than before.
Specifically, advanced activities for fire fighting and ambulance, rescue service, development of information systems, and promotion of environmental preservation, etc., are the main focus of recent interest. In order to mix and make use of advanced scientific technologies comprehensively, the entire
90
91
society, including private companies and universities, should cooperate more fully. For this purpose, the Fire and Disaster Management Agency has founded the " Promotion Programme for Fire and Disaster Prevention Technologies," an effective research fund programme for prevention of fire and disaster in making full use of the technological capability of the private sector. In order to resolve the difficult issues currently faced, the programme solicits universities, research institutes, and private companies for broad research themes. The programme seeks to identify excellent themes for sponsorship. In FY2003, applications for 131 themes were received, and of these, 16 were selected for their excellence.
the tank. Fire services had expected and were prepared for a fire of this type as a possible fire caused by an earthquake. In fact, the Tomakomai Fire Defence headquarters, the jurisdiction of which the fire broke out in, fought against it and successfully put it out. On the 28th, however, another fire broke out from a separate naphtha storage tank (33,000kl). It was caused because the floating roof lid of the tank sank and volatile naphtha was exposed to air, and resulted in a total fire. With reinforcements sent from within Hokkaido and Emergency Fire Response Teams mobilized, 91 fire-fighting teams consisting of 298 fire-fighters in total engaged themselves in fire-fighting operations, divided into forces to carry out their respective assignments, such as the direct fire-fighting operation, an operation to prevent the spread of the fire to other tanks, an operation to transport foam extinguishing agents to the site, etc., and continued their urgent efforts. The fire, however, continued burning for about 44 hours until 6:55 A.M. on the 30th, when it was finally put out. In recent years, there have been a number of serious accidents, including fires and explosions that have occurred at industrial establishments of representative major Japanese businesses. Fire and leakage accidents at facilities handling dangerous materials registered a record high with 540 cases in 2000 and today remain at that level. The year 2003, however, turned out to be the worst year ever with frequent large-scale industrial disasters, which included the above-mentioned petroleum tank fire in Hokkaido, a fire at Exxon Mobil in Nagoya, and the complete incineration of the tire plant at Bridgestone's Tochigi factory. Such a large-scale fire at an industrial establishment, once started, can result in a serious, fatal accident, and will take tremendous time and effort to put out. Further, nobody can deny that it causes a huge amount of damage to corporate assets, threaten people's lives in the surrounding neighbourhood, and has a significant impact on society. Fire and Disaster Management Agency has started its effort to address this problem in cooperation with the relevant government departments to improve the present situation for fire defence, disaster prevention and industrial security points of view and
Water mist fire extinguisher to reduce the damage caused by conventional sprinklers Water mist is a new type of fire extinguisher that only requires one-half to one-third as much water as a conventional sprinkler while maintaining the same level of extinguishing capability. It is expected to replace halon as a new environmentally friendly extinguisher. Because it causes less property damage than a conventional sprinkler and is easy to install even in areas with a short water supply, it could be widely used in ceilings as well as for fire hose nozzles. There are still many unknown factors relating to the fire extinguishing principles of water mist sprinklers, so further study and stepby-step developments are planned for this technology. Challenge of reducing frequent industrial disasters Safe society, which must not be a vulnerable one. We will not stop making efforts until the world where we can prevent every calamity before it actually happens is realized. Industrial disasters can have a grave impact on neighbouring residents' lives A petroleum tank fire started at the Hokkaido refinery of Idemitsu Kosan after the occurrence of the Tokachi offshore earthquake on September 26, 2003. The fire triggered a big social anxiety in addition to extremely difficult fire-fighting activities. In the beginning, a fire started from the ring area of a crude oil storage tank (33,000kl). This was attributable to crude oil leaking from the perimeter of the floating roof lid of
92
93
is developing measures aimed at stopping such industrial disasters.
Action plan for industrial disaster prevention calling for unified efforts by the relevant authorities and industry
Fire and Disaster Management Agency intends to develop an action plan to prevent dangerous material-induced accidents for the prevention of industrial disaster, which can develop into a serious disaster, and promote disaster-preventing measures calling for unified efforts by the government and the private sector. It clarifies requisite items for implementation by corporations, associations and various industrial establishments. More specifically, it states clearly the responsibility of a corporations top management for ensuring safety and that safety should be given priority in corporate activity. It also calls for actions on the part of corporations to perfect necessary arrangements for ensuring safety, implement measures to identify risks and mitigate possible damage, and disclose information necessary for smooth fire-fighting activity. Further the Fire and Disaster Management Agency has enhanced cooperation with regional authorities such as prefectural fire defence organizations to develop systems realizing faster fire-fighting operations. In FY2004, it will launch the lock cooperation conference for dangerous material-induced accident prevention to reinforce government-industry cooperation at regional levels. With this, integrated administration to ensure security of dangerous materials across the national and regional governments will be put in place. Introduction of a Large-capacity Foam Spraying System A large-capacity foam spray system is a firefighting system that can discharge an over 10,000 litres per minute. In comparison with the 3,000 litre per minute discharged from a large fire engine for elevated point fire fighting, its superiority in capacity is obvious. It may be more adequate to describe it as a capacity corresponding to any large fire engines for elevated point fire fighting to convey its image correctly. Presently, the introduction of a large-capacity foam spraying system is being considered to improve the ability to fight complex petroleum
disasters because of the lesson learned in a petroleum tank accident in Hokkaido. Fire and Disaster Management Agency has undertaken this project by first revising the Petroleum Complex Disaster Prevention Act. Presently, the Agency is studying the most effective measures for utilizing a largecapacity foam spray system.
As the pivot of disaster control, preparing for the" unpredictable" and " sudden crises"
The Fire, Disaster and Risk Management Centre is the Fire and Disaster Management Agency's operation command room for disaster control established within the Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Tele-communications. With an information network developed to link it permanently with the Japan Meteorological Agency and prefectural/municipal fire defence headquarters, it is the place where the disaster control headquarters placed under the command of the Commissioner of Fire and Disaster Management Agency is established and Fire and Disaster Management Agency's personnel promptly gather as soon as a large-scale disaster takes place. Utilizing advanced means of information gathering including the fire and disaster management radio, local satellite communication network, helicopter TV transmission system, etc., it will assess the states of a disaster-stricken area accurately. Then, utilizing the Fire and Disaster Management Agency's information analysis functions, such as disaster management information, extensive area cooperation support, Emergency Fire Response Teams movement information and petroleum complex local information management systems, it will issue commands calling for prompt, adequate countermeasures. The raging energy of a large-scale disaster can devastate everything, including lives and property. To practice fire-fighting and rescue operations leaving nothing to be regretted later and fulfil the responsibilities as a command tower, the Fire and Disaster Management Agency always tries to prepare for unpredictable situations by faithfully conducting exercising drills simulating real disaster situations. This is to learn by experience the strain the members would be exposed to in an actual disaster control operation,
94
95
while providing important feedback for improvement, such as those concerning the functionality of fire defence forces and the need for revision of the relevant laws, which are not identifiable through mere desk planning. Drills simulating the imminent great Tokai earthquake are performed not only at the Fire and Disaster Management Agency but also at various other government departments that are concerned with disaster control. Fire Services Today and in the Past The history of fire services in Japan dates back to the Edo era. Then society had fire defence organizations such as Machibikeshi, known for the famous 48 teams named after the letters of the Japanese alphabet, Daimyoubikeshi and Joubikeshi, each engaged in fire services. Joubikeshi among them was, so to speak, the origin of today's permanent fire defence forces, which could be mobilized immediately upon the outbreak of a fire. On the other hand, Machibikeshi, which was closely related to each community, was rather similar to today's Volunteer Fire Corps as its members had their own professions for a living such as being a scaffolding man. To search for the counterpart of Daimyoubikeshi in today's fire defence organizations, it may correspond to fire-fighting teams organized by big businesses with special facilities such as a petroleum complex, as they protected Edo Castle and the mansions of feudal lords. Red Pages in the Hello Page Telephone Directory Did you know about the red pages provided inside the front cover of a Hello Page telephone directory distributed to each home? They are edited on a regional basis in the country with the cooperation of Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation (NTT) and show clearly where you should evacuate when a disaster breaks out. They contain useful disaster prevention information including what you should do first when a disaster breaks out, what you should do in your usual life to ensure smooth evacuation, etc. Red pages are the pages you should consult in a time of need. Please keep in mind to rip out the pages from the telephone directory and put them in your pocket at a critical moment.
Fire and Disaster Management Helicopters Utilized Fully for Multiple Purposes Helicopters have been utilized for rescue operations in mountains and floods as well as life saving operations, and the need for their use is expected to grow in the future. This is because they will play important roles in an extensive area cooperation system mobilized in possible large-scale disasters and special disasters, such as NBC terrorism. They can get near a disaster-stricken area for disaster information gathering from above and transport materials and equipment for disaster control operations even if transportation networks on the ground are devastated. Fire and Disaster Management Agency is providing active support to promote the deployment of fire and disaster management helicopters and the development of manuals for their effective utilization.
ADVANCED PLANS THAT WORK
Managing the DisasterSystems and Strategies to Consider No business regrets having a solid business continuity and disaster management plan once a disasters strike. However, the token business continuity plans are worthless in actual disasters. It is worth the time and the costs to do the planning right. A means of accounting for and contacting staff, visitors and anyone on site in the event of a major incident should be included in the disaster management plan. Emergency damage assessment, identifying shelters, assembly, travel, and relocation policies should be devised, agreed upon and communicated. Emergency ManagementCommand and Control A crisis command and control centre needs to be established immediately when disaster strikes. Information is critical, and a good plan has thought through the implementation of communications to the control centre. In the event of a major disaster, key staff and personal should know what to do, and what tasks the company is relying on them to complete. When communicating these emergency tasks, succession planning and natural attrition should be considered and addressed. Do not overlook communications and public relations when
96
97
developing your company's disaster management strategies. Cover media management thoroughly with employees. Everyone should know and understand the media policy for the company, and procedures to follow. Disaster management should also include a plan for contacting suppliers, business partners, or other key relationships, keeping them informed and reassured. It is also important to require that key suppliers also have effective (according to industry standards) BC management in place. Some companies have found it helpful to segment their management plans for a disaster. A few ideas for segmenting are below: Initial response Medium to longer-term response Handover from crisis management Recovery phase (people, assets, IT, etc.) Virtual recovery Physical recovery Regional recovery National recovery International recovery Suppliers plans and contractual obligations Outsourcer plans and contractual obligations A Successful Business Continuity PlanManagement Before the Disaster Successful BC management disaster planning does not end. To ensure a viable ongoing BC management plan, the BC manager should continue to update and audit the plan, as the company grows and policies change. TestingThe Disaster Plan It is also important to have ongoing training and awareness of the disaster management plan. When possible, it is good to 'exercise' the plan. Have a trial run. Find the flaws before the disaster. Proper management of the business continuity and disaster management plan is not an isolated function. It should
involve all critical functions of the company. Many companies have found it helpful to have an interactive exercise testing readiness and response for the most likely disaster scenarios. This seems to clearly point out the new issues, which can be addressed and updated in the business continuity plan. Business Continuity ThinkingChanging the Corporate Culture Corporations should strive to integrate the need for business continuity and disaster managing within their business processes and management culture. Successful BC programmes educate and reassure all staff. BCM and disaster planning should be a required part of any proposals for capital expenditures, or new projects within the company. Many corporations have found it helpful to develop the awareness and build the culture by considering BC issuesmanagement and planningin annual performance reviews. Testing and RetestingThe BC Plan The plan should be exercised, verified and updated at least twice a year. It should also consider time of day, special circumstances, community events, and varying levels of impact. The revelations from these exercises should be included and considered in future BC updates. Effective Disaster ControlNecessary Dynamic in Today's Corporations Disaster management is the newest hurdle top managers face in running successful companies today. Managing a disaster is so vital that entire business industries have been created around critical planning. Instilling leadership qualities and a disaster management plan is part of the human capital management dynamic of today's corporation.
DISASTER RECOVERYRESUMING NORMAL OPERATIONS
Planning Reduces RisksLessons Impact Every business in vulnerable. None are immune to the many and serious incidents which can prevent the normal course of business. The potential causes are many... fire, flood,
98
Rescue Methods in Disasters
99
computer malfunctions, accidents, terrorism, the list is endless. Disaster recovery (DR.) is designed to help reduce the impact to the company should the worst occur. Pre-disaster planning makes recovering from the unthinkable possible. If the company fails to plan for possible disasters, they plan to fail. It is simple. Having a disaster recovery plan (DRP) is a fundamental responsibility of every company. Developing the plan need not be overly time consuming and complicated. However, it is the most important thing in the company armoury should a disastrous event take place. It is what everyone will turn to the minute disaster strikes. No company wants to ever have to be in a position to test the disaster plan; however, having a good plan in place can be the difference between the loss of the company and it's recovery. It is vital that a recovery plan is understandable, and workable and well-thought out enough to guide everyone through the crisis. Anything less is worthless. The disaster plan should contemplate disk recovery, data recovery and hard drive recovery. Raid Data Recovery PlansThe Key to Simplicity Business continuity and Data Recovery. plans do not have to be as complicated as we try to make them. In fact, it shouldn't be complicated at all. If you have a business continuity and disaster recovery plan now, and it is too complicated to understand, imagine how difficult it will be to actually use in the event of an emergency. Toss it and start over. The first rule is that the plan must be easily understood. Software is AvailableA Simple Template is a Good Place to Start Many options are on the market today to guide companies through the process of developing their disaster recovery plan. The BCP Generator is one of them. It is an interactive WORD based application that easily guides the planning team through the process of developing the disaster plan for recovery. It provides comprehensive templates and guidelines that recover all functions required in the recovery process.
3
RESCUE METHODS IN DISASTERS
Artificial respiration is the act of providing air for a person who is not breathing or is not making sufficient respiratory effort on their own. This is achieved through manual insufflation of the lungs either by the rescuer blowing in to the patient's lungs, or by using a mechanical device to do so. This method of insufflation has been proved more effective than methods which involve mechanical manipulation of the patients chest or arms, such as the Silvester method. It is also known as Expired Air Resuscitation (EAR), Expired Air Ventilation (EAV), mouth-to-mouth resuscitation or colloquially the kiss of life. Artificial respiration is a part of most protocols for performing cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) making it an essential skill for first aid. In some situations, artificial respiration is also performed separately, for instance in near-drowning and opiate overdoses. The performance of artificial respiration in its own is now limited in most protocols to health professionals, whereas lay first aiders are advised to undertake full CPR in any case where the patient is not breathing sufficiently.
INSUFFLATIONS
Insufflation, also known as 'rescue breaths' or 'ventilations', is the act of mechanically forcing air into a patient's respiratory system. This can be achieved via a number of methods, which will depend on the situation and equipment available. All methods require good airway management to perform, which ensures that the method is effective. These methods include:
100
101
Mouth to Mouth: This involves the rescuer making a seal between their mouth and the patient's mouth and 'blowing', in order to pass air in to the patient's body. Mouth to Nose: In some instances, the rescuer may need or wish to form a seal with the patient's nose. Typical reasons for this include maxillofacial injuries, performing the procedure in water or the remains of vomit in the mouth. Mouth to Mouth and Nose: Used on infants (usually up to around 1 year old), as this forms the most effective seal. Mouth to Mask: Most organisations recommend the use of some sort of barrier between rescuer and patient to reduce cross infection risk. One popular type is the 'pocket mask'. This may be able to provide higher tidal volumes than a Bag Valve Mask. Bag Valve Mask (BVM): This is a simple device manually operated by the rescuer, which involves squeezing a bag in order to expel air in to the patient. Mechanical Resuscitator: An electric unit designed to breathe for the patient.
Adjuncts to Insufflation Most training organisations recommend that in any of the methods involving mouth to patient, that a protective barrier is used, in order to minimise the possibility of cross infection (in either direction). Barriers available include pocket masks and keyring-sized face shields. These barriers are an example of Personal Protective Equipment to guard the face against splashing, spraying or splattering of blood or other potentially infectious materials. These barriers should provide a one-way filter valve which lets the air from the rescuer deliver to the patient while any substances from the patient (e.g. vomit, blood) cannot reach the rescuer. Many adjuncts are single use, though if they are multi use, after use of the adjunct, the mask must be cleaned and autoclaved and the filter replaced. The CPR mask is the preferred method of ventilating a patient when only one rescuer is available. Many feature 18mm inlets to support supplemental oxygen, which increases the oxygen being delivered from the
approximate 17% available in the air to around 40-50%. Tracheal intubation is often used for short term mechanical ventilation. A tube is inserted through the nose (nasotracheal intubation) or mouth (orotracheal intubation) and advanced into the trachea. In most cases tubes with inflatable cuffs are used for protection against leakage and aspiration. Intubation with a cuffed tube is thought to provide the best protection against aspiration. Tracheal tubes inevitably cause pain and coughing. Therefore, unless a patient is unconscious or anesthetized for other reasons, sedative drugs are usually given to provide tolerance of the tube. Other disadvantages of tracheal intubation include damage to the mucosal lining of the nasopharynx or oropharynx and subglottic stenosis. In an emergency a Cricothyrotomy can be used by health care professionals, where an airway is inserted through a surgical opening in the cricothyroid membrane. This is similar to a tracheostomy but a cricothyrotomy is reserved for emergency access. This is usually only used when there is a complete blockage of the pharynx or there is massive maxillofacial injury, preventing other adjunts being used. Efficiency of Mouth to Patient Insufflation Normal atmospheric air contains approximately 21% oxygen when created in. After gaseous exchange has taken place in the lungs, with waste products (notably carbon dioxide being removed, the air being exhaled by humans normally contains around 17% oxygen. This means that the human body utilises only around 19% of the oxygen inhaled, leaving over 80% of the oxygen available in the exhalatory breath. This means that there is more than enough residual oxygen to be used in the lungs of the patient, which then crosses the cell membrane to form oxyhaemoglobin. Oxygen The efficiency of artificial respiration can be greatly increased by the simultaneous use of oxygen therapy. The amount of oxygen available to the patient in mouth to mouth is around 16%. If this is done through a pocket mask with an oxygen flow, this increases to 40% oxygen.
102
103
If a Bag Valve Mask or mechanical respirator is used with an oxygen supply, this rises to 99% oxygen. The greater the oxygen concentration, the more efficient the gaseous exchange will be in the lungs.
CARDIOPULMONARY RESUSCITATION
Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is an emergency medical procedure for a victim of cardiac arrest or, in some circumstances, respiratory arrest. CPR is performed in hospitals, or in the community by laypersons or by emergency response professionals. CPR consists of artificial blood circulation and artificial respiration (i.e. chest compressions and lung ventilation). CPR is generally continued, usually in the presence of advanced life support, until the patient regains a heart beat (called "return of spontaneous circulation" or "ROSC") or is declared dead. CPR is unlikely to restart the heart, but rather its purpose is to maintain a flow of oxygenated blood to the brain and the heart, thereby delaying tissue death and extending the brief window of opportunity for a successful resuscitation without permanent brain damage. Defibrillation and advanced life support are usually needed to restart the heart. History CPR has been known in theory, if not practice, for many hundreds or even thousands of years; some claim it is described in the Bible, discerning a superficial similarity to CPR in a passage from the Books of Kings (II 4:34), wherein the Hebrew prophet Elisha warms a dead boy's body and "places his mouth over his". In the 19th century, doctor H. R. Silvester described a method (The Silvester Method) of artificial respiration in which the patient is laid on their back, and their arms are raised above their head to aid inhalation and then pressed against their chest to aid exhalation. The procedure is repeated sixteen times per minute. This type of artificial respiration is occasionally seen in films made in the early part of the 20th century. A second technique, called the Holger Neilson technique, described in the first edition of the Boy Scout Handbook in the
United States in 1911, described a form of artificial respiration where the person was laid on their front, with their head to the side, and a process of lifting their arms and pressing on their back was utilized, essentially the Silvester Method with the patient flipped over. This form is seen well into the 1950s (it is used in an episode of Lassie during the Jeff Miller era), and was often used, sometimes for comedic effect, in theatrical cartoons of the time. This method would continue to be shown, for historical purposes, side-by-side with modern CPR in the Boy Scout Handbook until its ninth edition in 1979. However it wasn't until the middle of the 20th century that the wider medical community started to recognise and promote it as a key part of resuscitation following cardiac arrest. Peter Safar wrote the book ABC of resuscitation in 1957. In the U.S., it was first promoted as a technique for the public to learn in the 1970s. Use in Cardiac Arrest The medical term for the condition in which a person's heart has stopped is cardiac arrest (also referred to as cardiorespiratory arrest). CPR is used on patients in cardiac arrest in order to oxygenate the blood and maintain a cardiac output to keep vital organs alive. Blood circulation and oxygenation are absolute requirements in transporting oxygen to the tissues. The brain may sustain damage after blood flow has been stopped for about four minutes and irreversible damage after about seven minutes. If blood flow ceases for 1 or 2 hours, the cells of the body die unless they get an adequately gradual bloodflow, (provided by cooling and gradual warming, rarely, in nature [such as in a cold stream of water] or by an advanced medical team). Because of that CPR is generally only effective if performed within 7 minutes of the stoppage of blood flow. The heart also rapidly loses the ability to maintain a normal rhythm. Low body temperatures as sometimes seen in drowning prolong the time the brain survives. Following cardiac arrest, effective CPR enables enough oxygen to reach the brain to delay brain death, and allows the heart to remain responsive to defibrillation attempts.
104
105
If the patient still has a pulse, but is not breathing, this is called respiratory arrest and artificial respiration is more appropriate. However, since people often have difficulty detecting a pulse, CPR may be used in both cases, especially when taught as first aid. First Aid CPR is part of the chain of survival, which includes early access (to emergency medical services), early CPR, early defibrillation, and early advanced care. Some first aid trainers also advocate the performance of CPR as part of the choking protocol, if all else has failed. Sudden cardiac arrest is a leading cause of death, happening to approximately one in 8000 people per annum outside a hospital setting in the USA. CPR can double or triple the victim's chances of survival when commenced immediately (see 'effectiveness' below). According to United States 'Annals of Emergency Medicine', only 25% of victims of a witnessed cardiac arrest are administered CPR by a bystander, with a further 33% receiving some CPR as a result of dispatcher instructions. This leaves 41% of victims receiving no CPR prior to the arrival of the emergency medical services. Rapid access to defibrillation is also vital. The most common cause of cardiac arrest outside of a hospital is ventricular fibrillation (VF), a potentially fatal arrhythmia that is usually (but not always) caused by a heart attack and is responsive to defibrillation. Other causes of cardiac arrest include drowning, drug overdose, poisoning, electrocution. First Aid Training CPR is taught to the general public in order to increase the chance to CPR being performed in the crucial few minutes before emergency personnel are available. Simple training is the goal of the 2005 guidelines to maximise the prospect that CPR will be performed successfully. CPR is a practical skill and needs professional instruction followed up by regular practice on a resuscitation mannequin to gain and maintain full competency. In most CPR classes, a simple mnemonic is used to aid memory of the clinical approach to the unconscious patient and
CPR. The most common one used worldwide is ABC which stands for Airway, Breathing and Circulation. This may be built upon with extra information (and letters) and can reach complicated levels such as AcBCDEEEFG, explained further in the main article ABC (medical). CPR skills are not confined to medical professionals, but are regularly taught to members of the public. Widespread knowledge of CPR has a community benefit, as CPR must be applied quickly after a patients heart has stopped. Early CPR in the community is essential to the prevention of brain damage during a cardiac arrest and increases the chance of survival. CPR maintains the blood flow and perfusion to the brain, buying time until a defibrillator and professional medical help arrives. It is considered best to obtain training in CPR before a medical emergency occurs, although some modern ambulance dispatchers will talk an untrained lay rescuer through the process over the phone, whilst the crew is en-route. For the most effective results, hands-on training should be given by an expert. This will enable the person to perform CPR more safely and more effectively. Most organisations advocate regular retraining, in order to keep practice in the skills, and to ensure that the person is up to date with the latest guidelines, which change periodically based on the outputs from governing bodies. First aid training, including CPR is often provided by a community organisation or charity (with or without a fee), with international providers including the Red Cross and St. John Ambulance, or more local providers such as St. Andrew's Ambulance Association in Scotland or the American Heart Association in the United States. There are also many commercial organisations who will train people for a fee. Training is often provided or paid for by employers who wish, or are required by law, to have trained first aiders on site. Guidelines In 2005, new CPR guidelines were published by the International Resuscitation Councils, agreed at the 2005 International Consensus Conference on Cardiopulmonary
106
107
Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care Science. The primary goal of these changes was to simplify CPR for lay rescuers and healthcare providers alike, to maximise the potential for early resuscitation. The important changes for 2005 were: A universal compression-ventilation ratio (30:2) recommended for all single rescuers of infant (less than one year old), child (1 year old to puberty), and adult (puberty and above) victims (excluding newborns). The primary difference between the age groups is that with adults the rescuer uses two hands for the chest compressions, while with children it is only one, and with infants only two fingers (pointer and middle fingers). Whilst this simplification has been introduced, it has not been universally accepted, and especially amongst healthcare professionals, protocols may still vary. The removal of the emphasis on lay rescuers assessing for pulse or signs of circulation for an unresponsive adult victim, instead taking the absence of normal breathing as the key indicator for commencing CPR. The removal of the protocol in which lay rescuers provide rescue breathing without chest compressions for an adult victim, with all cases such as these being subject to CPR. Research has shown that lay personnel cannot accurately detect a pulse in about 40% of cases and cannot accurately discern the absence of pulse in about 10%, the pulse check step has been removed from the CPR procedure completely for lay persons and de-emphasized for healthcare professionals.
PREVALENCE AND EFFECTIVENESS
CPR is performed correctly. There is a clear correlation between age and the chance of CPR being commenced, with younger people being far more likely to have CPR attempted on them prior to the arrival of emergency medical services. It was also found that CPR was more commonly given by a bystander in public, than when an arrest occurred in the patient's home, although health care professionals are responsible for more than half of out-of-hospital resuscitation attempts. This is supported by further research, which suggests that people with no connection to the victim are more likely to perform CPR than a member of their family. There is also a correlation between the cause of arrest and the likelihood of bystander CPR being initiated. Lay persons are most likely to give CPR to younger cardiac arrest victims in a public place when it has a medical cause; victims in arrest from trauma, exsanguination or intoxication are less likely to receive CPR. Chance of Getting CPR in Time CPR is only likely to be effective if commenced within 6 minutes after the blood flow stops, because permanent brain cell damage occurs when fresh blood infuses the cells after that time, since the cells of the brain become dormant in as little as 4-6 minutes in an oxygen deprived environment and the cells are unable to survive the reintroduction of oxygen in a traditional resuscitation. Research using cardioplegic blood infusion resulted in a 79.4% survival rate with cardiac arrest intervals of 7243 minutes, traditional methods achieve a 15% survival rate in this scenario, by comparison. New research is currently needed to determine what role CPR, electroshock, and new advanced gradual resuscitation techniques will have with this new knowledge. A notable exception is cardiac arrest occurring in conjunction with exposure to very cold temperatures. Hypothermia seems to protect the victim by slowing down metabolic and physiologic processes, greatly decreasing the tissues' need for oxygen. There are cases where CPR, defibrillation, and advanced warming
Chance of Getting CPR Various studies suggest that in out of home cardiac arrest, bystanders, lay persons or family members attempt CPR in between 14% and 45% of the time, with a median of 32%. This indicates that around 1/3 of out-of-home arrests have a CPR attempt made on them. However, the effectiveness of this CPR is variable, and the studies suggest only around half of bystander
108
109
techniques have revived victims after substantial periods of hypothermia. Chance of Surviving Used alone, CPR will result in few complete recoveries, and those that do survive often develop serious complications. Estimates vary, but many organizations stress that CPR does not "bring anyone back," it simply preserves the body for defibrillation and advanced life support. However, in the case of "non-shockable" rhythms such as Pulseless Electrical Activity (PEA), defibrillation is not indicated, and the importance of CPR rises. On average, only 5%-10% of people who receive CPR survive. The purpose of CPR is not to "start" the heart, but rather to circulate oxygenated blood, and keep the brain alive until advanced care (especially defibrillation) can be initiated. As many of these patients may have a pulse that is impalpable by the layperson rescuer, the current consensus is to perform CPR on a patient that is not breathing. A pulse check is not required in basic CPR since it is so often missed when present, or even felt when absent, even by health care professionals. Studies have shown the importance of immediate CPR followed by defibrillation within 3-5 minutes of sudden VF cardiac arrest improve survival. In cities such as Seattle where CPR training is widespread and defibrillation by EMS personnel follows quickly, the survival rate is about 30 percent. In cities such as New York City, without those advantages, the survival rate is only 1-2 percent.
Type of Arrest
Witnessed In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Unwitnessed In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Bystander Cardiocerebral Resuscitation Bystander Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation No Bystander CPR (Ambulance CPR) Defibrillation within 3-5 minutes
ALTERNATIVE METHODS
Cardiocerebral Resuscitation The International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation (ILCOR) approach described above has been challenged in recent years by advocates for Cardiocerebral Resuscitation (CCR). CCR is simply chest compressions without artificial respiration. The ventilation component of CPR has been a topic of major controversy over the past decade. In March 2007, a Japanese study in the medical journal The Lancet presented strong evidence that compressing the chest, not MTM ventilation, is the key to helping someone recover from cardiac arrest. The CCR method is championed by the University of Arizona's Sarver Heart Centre, and a recent study by the university, claims a 300% greater success rate over standard CPR. The exceptions were in the case of drowning or drug overdose. The method of delivering chest compressions remains the same, as does the rate (100 per minute), but the rescuer delivers only the compression element which, the University of Arizona claims, keeps the bloodflow moving without the interruption caused by insufflations. An editorial by Gordon Ewy MD (a proponent of CCR) in the same issue of The Lancet calls for an interim revision of the AHA/ILCOR Guidelines based on the results of the Japanese study, but the next scheduled revision of the Guidelines is not until 2010. The initial response of the AHA was that no interim change is necessary. Self-CPR A form of "self-CPR" termed "Cough CPR" may help a person maintain blood flow to the brain during a heart attack while waiting for medical help to arrive and has been used in a hospital emergency room in cases where "standard CPR" was contraindicated. "Cough CPR" was the subject of a hoax chain e-mail entitled "How to Survive a Heart Attack When Alone" which wrongly cited "Via-Health Rochester General Hospital" as the source of
ROSC
48% 21% 40% 40% 15% 74%
Survival
22% 1% 6% 4% 2% 30%
110
111
the technique. Rochester General Hospital has denied any connection with the technique. Rapid coughing has been used in hospitals for brief periods of cardiac arrhythmia on monitored patients. One researcher has recommended that it be taught broadly to the public. However, "cough CPR" cannot be used outside the hospital because the first symptom of cardiac arrest is unconsciousness in which case coughing is impossible. Further, the vast majority of people suffering chest pain from a heart attack will not be in cardiac arrest and CPR is not needed. In these cases attempting "cough CPR" will increase the workload on the heart and may be harmful. When coughing is used on trained and monitored patients in hospitals, it has only been shown to be effective for 90 seconds. The American Heart Association (AHA) and other resuscitation bodies, do not endorse "Cough CPR", which it terms a misnomer as it is not a form of resuscitation. The AHA does recognize a limited legitimate use of the coughing technique: "This coughing technique to maintain blood flow during brief arrhythmias has been useful in the hospital, particularly during cardiac catheterization. In such cases the patients ECG is monitored continuously, and a physician is present." Place in Film and Television CPR is often severely misrepresented in movies and television as being highly effective in resuscitating a person who is not breathing and has no circulation. A 1996 study published in the New England Journal of Medicine showed that CPR success rates in television shows was 75%. It is important to note that CPR techniques portrayed on television and in film are purposely incorrect. Actors performing simulated CPR will keep their elbows bent, to prevent force from reaching the fictional victim's heart. As well as causing significant local trauma, in theory performing CPR on healthy persons may disrupt heart rhythms, and may cause cardiac arrest.
Application on Animals It is entirely feasible to perform CPR on animals like cats and dogs. The principles and practices are virtually identical to CPR for humans. One is cautioned to only perform CPR on unconscious animals to avoid the risk of being bitten.
OCCLUSIVE DRESSING
An occlusive dressing is an air and watertight trauma dressing used in first aid. These dressings are generally made with a waxy coating so as to provide a total seal, and as a result do not have the absorbent properties of gauze pads. They are typically used to treat open, or "sucking," chest wounds to alleviate or prevent a tension pneumothorax (serious complications of a collapsed lung). They are also used in conjunction with a moist sterile dressing for intestinal eviceration. Occlussive dressings come in various forms, including Vaseline Gauze, which sticks to the skin surrounding the wound using vaseline. If you do not have a commercial occlusive dressing available and suspect that a patient has a "sucking" chest wound (sucking at wound site, respiratory distress, decreased breath sounds on one side of chest), a piece of plastic or the side of a plastic bag can be placed over the wound and taped to the chest on 3 sides, leaving one side open as a "flutter valve" to allow for exhalation. Whether the seal is taped on 3 or 4 sides varies by jurisdiction. Check with your state laws or medical director in EMS services to determine how your area handles occlusive dressings. They can also be used to enhance the penetration and absorption of topically-applied medications, such as ointments and creams. Furthermore, they may be used in vivo acute toxicity tests of dermal irritation and sensitisation. The test animal is shaved and the test material is applied to the skin and wrapped in an occlusive material. The skin is then exposed after 23 hours and an assessment for redness and oedema is made. Recovery Position The recovery position is a first aid technique recommended for assisting people who are unconscious, or nearly so, but are still breathing. It is frequently taught as part of classes in CPR
112
113
(cardiopulmonary resuscitation) or first aid. When an unconscious person is lying face upwards, there are two main risks factors which can lead to suffocation: The tongue can fall to the back of the throat, due to loss of muscular control. The back of the tongue then obstructs the airway. Fluids, possibly blood but particularly vomit, can collect in the back of the throat, causing the person to drown. When a person is lying face up, the esophagus tilts down slightly from the stomach towards the throat. This, combined with loss of muscular control, can lead to the stomach contents flowing into the throat, called passive regurgitation. As well as obstructing the airway, fluid which collects in the back of the throat can also then flow down into the lungs; stomach acid can attack the inner lining of the lungs and cause a condition known as aspiration pneumonia. Many fatalities occur where the original injury or illness which caused unconsciousness is not itself inherently fatal, but where the unconscious person suffocates for one of these reasons. This is a common cause of death following unconsciousness due to excessive consumption of alcohol. To a limited extent, it is possible to protect against risks to the airway from the tongue by tilting the head back and lifting the jaw. However, an unconscious person will not remain in this position unless held constantly, and crucially it does not safeguard against risks due to fluids. If the person is placed in the recovery position, the action of gravity will both keep the tongue from obstructing the airway and also allow any fluids to drain. Also the chest is raised above the ground, which helps to make breathing easier. When to Use the Recovery Position? The recovery position is recommended for unconscious people, those who are too inebriated to assure their own continued breathing, victims of drowning, and also for victims of suspected poisoning (who are liable to become unconscious). It is suitable for any unconscious person who does not need CPR.
Putting a Victim in the Recovery Position Before using the Recovery Position, perform the preliminary first aid steps. First assess whether the scene is safe for the rescuer. If not, leave. Assess whether the victim is Alert, Breathing and has Circulation (ABCs). If the victim is alert and an adult, obtain consent before performing first aid. For children, attempt to obtain consent from a parent, guardian, or other responsible caregiver. If the victim is not alert, and is not breathing, check for a pulse. If there is no pulse, perform cardiopulmonary resuscitation. If there is circulation, perform Rescue breathing. The initial assessment should be done quickly, in a minute or less. Next, alert trained emergency medical personnel. Call the emergency telephone number or other emergency services. If No Spinal or Neck Injury is Indicated The correct position is called the "lateral recovery position." Start with the victim laying on the back and with the legs straight out. Kneel on one side of the victim, facing the victim. Move the arm closest to you so it is perpendicular to the body, with the elbow flexed (perpendicular). Move the farthest arm across the body so that the hand is resting across the torso. Bend the leg farthest from you so the knee is elevated. Reach inside the knee to pull the thigh toward you. Use the other arm to pull the shoulder that is farthest from you. Roll the body toward you. Leave the upper leg in a flexed position to stabilize the body. Victims who are left in this position for long periods may experience nerve compression. Still, that is usually a more desirable outcome for the victim than choking to death. If Spinal or Neck Injuries are Possible When the injury is apparently the result of an accidental fall, collision or other trauma, the risk of spinal or neck injuries should be assumed. Normally, only trained medical personnel should attempt to move a victim with neck or spinal injuries. Such movements run the risk of causing permanent paralysis or other injuries. Movement of spinal-injured victims should be minimized. Such victims should only be moved to a recovery position when it is necessary to drain vomit from the airway.
114
115
In such instances, the correct position is called the "HAINES modified recovery position." HAINES is a portmanteau of High Arm IN Endangered Spine. In this modification, one of the patient's arms is raised above the head (in full abduction) to support the head and neck. There is less neck movement (and less degree of lateral angulation) than when the lateral recovery position is used, and, therefore, HAINES use carries less risk of spinal-cord damage. First Aider Notes If an individual has suffered a fall or injuries that suggest damage to the spine, as a FIRST AIDER ONLY your priority is to keep the airway open. If breathing, then leave them in the position you found them. If Breathing has stopped, regardless of possible injury to the person, perform your standard checks. DR., ABC Danger, Response, Airway, Breathing, Circulation. Then move them into the recovery position to open the air way. If they do not start breathing, begin CPR. If they begin to breath, keep them in that position. First Aider Priorities. 1 Breathing, every thing else comes second. 2 Get Help, your are the stop gap that keeps them alive until they get to the Hospital.
Additional note for pregnant victims

A pregnant woman should always rest on her left side, as laying on the right side may cause the uterus to compress the Inferior vena cava, possibly resulting in death.
scale and at a much faster pace than are supported by methods and means for solving ordinary problems. IT provides capabilities that can help people grasp the dynamic realities of a disaster more clearly and help them formulate better decisions more quickly. And IT can help keep better track of the myriad details involved in all phases of disaster management. The committee concluded that IT has as-yetunrealized potential to improve how communities, the nation, and the global community handle disasters. Briefings to the committee suggested that some progress is being made in using IT to enhance disaster management. Presentations made at its June 2005 workshop, additional briefings to the committee, and reports on responses to recent disasters indicated, however, that disaster management organizations have not fully exploited many of today's technology opportunities. This situation stands in contrast to the considerable success enjoyed by some sectors such as financial services and transportation in adopting new IT technologies routinely and aggressively. This report describes both short and long-term opportunities to enhance responsiveness and increase resilience by applying IT to disaster management. As in other sectors, successful use of IT involves multiple factors-making smarter use of existing technologies, creating opportunities to develop and adopt new technologies, and evolving organizational practices to best employ those technologies. Accordingly, this report also examines mechanisms to facilitate the development and effective use of IT. Short-Term Opportunities to Use IT Although the committee believes that investment in IT research and development (R&D) for disaster management should be guided in the long run by a comprehensive, stakeholder-driven roadmap (see below), it also sees opportunities for short-term investment in a number of specific areas that would yield significant benefits. The committee heard of many instances in which responders were able to make use of readily available technology-either provided by their organizations or acquired personally-that proved valuable during a disaster. The network effects associated with many of these technologies can create a critical mass of
Additional note for victims with torso wounds.

A victim with torso wounds should be placed with the wounds closest to the ground to minimize the possibility of blood affecting both lungs, resulting in asphyxiation.
USING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AS A POINT OF LEVERAGE
The challenge of disaster management is reducing the harm disasters cause to society, the economy, and the lives of individuals and communities. That task requires disaster managers to reduce uncertainty, to calculate and compare costs and benefits, and to manage resources, often on a much larger
116
117
users that provides a potential point of interoperability and cooperation across agencies. For example, ad hoc use of 802.11x wireless capabilities in laptops carried by some first responders, peer-to-peer use of Land Mobile Radio System (LMRS) radios, and use of Family Radio Service/General Mobile Radio Service "walkie-talkies" all can help to provide communications even when the communications infrastructure is damaged. Such technology options may already be in the hands of users but may not be deployed in disasters because policies and procedures for their use are not in place.
capability for network-centric warfare that are also relevant to disaster management. To make the sort of IT-enabled progress in disaster management that is envisioned in this report, the disaster management community should also devote significant attention and investment to a long-term research programme. A number of agencies could play a role in developing and implementing such a programme. The directly relevant mission of the Department of Homeland Security's (DHS's) Science and Technology Directorate is "to protect the homeland by providing Federal and local officials with state-of-the-art technology and other resources." Other agencies have relevant capabilities in terms of IT and disaster-related research programmes, modalities, constituencies, and existing connections with particular research communities, including the National Science Foundation (NSF), the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), DARPA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the research laboratories of the armed services. In a number of federal programmes, multiple agencies work jointly to tackle broad problems. One possible model for such an inter-agency programme is the Earthquake Hazard Reduction Programme, in which NIST has a lead role and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), FEMA, and NSF are participants. Similarly, for disaster management, a lead agency (logically DHS) could provide a clear single point of responsibility, coordinate activities, report on progress, and so forth; the lead agency would not be responsible for all aspects of execution, which would fall to all of the participating agencies and their contractors and grantees. R&D activities also need to be well coupled to the parts of DHS that are responsible for mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery activities to ensure that requirements are grounded in operational needs and to ensure that solutions can be transferred into federal operations and the parts of DHS responsible for developing policy to ensure that technological and organizational questions are considered together.
Other examples of "low-hanging fruit" include the following: Use of sensors, wikis (editable Web sites), blogs, and data-mining tools to capture, analyze, and share lessons learned from operational experiences; Use of database, Web, and call centre technologies to establish a service to provide information about available equipment, material, volunteers, and volunteer organizations; Use of planning, scheduling, task allocation, and resource management tools to help in formulating disaster management plans and tracking execution of the plans and to ensure timely recognition of problems and associated follow-up decision making; and Use of deployable cell phone technology to rapidly establish stand-alone communications capabilities for use in disasters where local infrastructure is damaged. To exploit such short-term opportunities involves identifying them, establishing policies and procedures for their use, and providing training to users. In government mission areas such as defence and energy, a research infrastructure has been built over decades to ensure long-term, mission-driven scientific and engineering advances-an effort that has included a long history of investments in IT. The Department of Defence, for example, funds a mix of shorter- and longer-term R&D carried out through the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and the service laboratories as in-house, university-based, and contract research. These investments are aimed at building a variety of capabilities, such as the military's transition to a
Key IT-Enabled Capabilities More robust, interoperable, and priority-sensitive communications. Disaster management requires robust,
118
119
priority-sensitive communications systems capable of supporting interoperation with other systems. Providing these requires communication networks that are more resilient to disruption than today's commercial networks, that can last longer without utility power, that can expand capacity to meet emergency needs, that can autonomously reconfigure themselves, that can handle the range of communication needs and environmental conditions that arise in disasters, that have well-defined points of interoperability, and that are able to distinguish between and properly prioritize communications. Better situational awareness and common operating picture. Situational awareness is the ability for actors in a disaster-from national coordinators to emergency responders to the general public-to have information about an incident, to understand what that information means in the context of the situation and their goals, and to project patterns and trends. The common operating picture is a shared understanding of a situation by a group of people who need to act together to achieve common goals. The aim is to improve a person's ability to do his or her job more effectively. Improved decision support and resource tracking and allocation. Whereas situation awareness provides decision makers with information relevant to their tasks and goals, decision support focuses on assisting them in formulating prospective actions-helping them understand and assess characteristics and consequences of alternative courses of action and follow-up on decisions, closing the feedback loop from decision to result. Greater organizational agility for disaster management. The use of IT has enabled and driven changes to organizational structures and processes (e.g., more distributed decision making). Agility is at a premium in disasters because no one type of organization or group of organizations is always best suited for the variety of problems that arise. Related issues with significant IT implications include building rapport among people who
do not share a history of cooperation and more quickly integrating the operations of multiple organizations. Better engagement of the public by (1) supplying information and (2) making use of information and resources that members of the public can supply. Although IT is used today to alert and inform the public before, during, and after a disaster, more use could be made of new communications modalities, and information could be better tailored and targeted to the needs of particular population. More attention should be paid to the information and resources held by the public because members of the public collectively have a richer view of a disaster situation, may possess increasingly sophisticated technology to capture and communicate information, and are an important source of volunteers, supplies, and equipment. One important factor is how to engage the entire population, given the existence of groups with cultural and language differences and other special needs. Enhanced infrastructure survivability and continuity of societal functions. Large disasters upset physical infrastructure, such as the electric grid, transportation, and health care-as well as IT systems. IT infrastructures themselves need to be more resilient; IT can also improve the survivability and speed the recovery of other infrastructure by providing better information about the status of systems and advance warning of impending failures. Finally, IT can facilitate the continuity of disrupted societal functions by providing new tools for reconnecting families, friends, organizations, and communities. Disaster Management Various disasters like earthquake, landslides, volcanic eruptions, fires, flood and cyclones are natural hazards that kill thousands of people and destroy billions of dollars of habitat and property each year. The rapid growth of the world's population and its increased concentration often in hazardous environment has escalated both the frequency and severity of
120
121
natural disasters. With the tropical climate and unstable land forms, coupled with deforestation, unplanned growth proliferation non-engineered constructions which make the disaster-prone areas mere vulnerable, tardy communication, poor or no budgetary allocation for disaster prevention, developing countries suffer more or less chronically by natural disasters. Asia tops the list of casualties due to natural disaster. Among various natural hazards, earthquakes, landslides, floods and cyclones are the major disasters adversely affecting very large areas and population in the Indian subcontinent. These natural disasters are of (i) geophysical origin such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, land slides and (ii) climatic origin such as drought, flood, cyclone, locust, forest fire. Though it may not be feasible to control nature and to stop the development of natural phenomena but the efforts could be made to avoid disasters and alleviate their effects on human lives, infrastructure and property. Rising frequency, amplitude and number of natural disasters and attendant problem coupled with loss of human lives prompted the General Assembly of the United Nations to proclaim 1990s as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) through a resolution 44/236 of December 22, 1989 to focus on all issues related to natural disaster reduction. In spite of IDNDR, there had been a string of major disaster throughout the decade. Nevertheless, by establishing the rich disaster management related traditions and by spreading public awareness the IDNDR provided required stimulus for disaster reduction. It is almost impossible to prevent the occurrence of natural disasters and their damages. However it is possible to reduce the impact of disasters by adopting suitable disaster mitigation strategies. The disaster mitigation works mainly address the following: (i) minimise the potential risks by developing disaster early warning strategies, (ii) prepare and implement developmental plans to provide resilience to such disasters, (iii) mobilise resources including communication and telemedicinal services and (iv) to help in rehabilitation and post-disaster reduction.
Disaster management on the other hand involves: (i) pre-disaster planning, preparedness, monitoring including relief management capability. (ii) prediction and early warning. (iii) damage assessment and relief management. Disaster reduction is a systematic work which involves with different regions, different professions and different scientific fields, and has become an important measure for human, society and nature sustainable development. Role of Space Technology Space systems from their vantage position have unambiguously demonstrated their capability in providing vital information and services for disaster management.The Earth Observation satellites provide comprehensive, synoptic and multi temporal coverage of large areas in real time and at frequent intervals and 'thus'have become valuable for continuous monitoring of atmospheric as well as surface parameters related to natural disasters. Geo-stationary satellites provide continuous and synoptic observations over large areas on weather including cyclone-monitoring. Polar orbiting satellites have the advantage of providing much higher resolution imageries, even though at low temporal frequency, which could be used for detailed monitoring, damage assessment and long-term relief management. The vast capabilities of communication satellites are available for timely dissemination of early warning and real-time coordination of relief operations. The advent of Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSAT) and Ultra Small Aperture Terminals (USAT) and phasedarray antennae have enhanced the capability further by offering low cost, viable technological solutions towards management and mitigation of disasters. Satellite communications capabilitiesfixed and mobile are vital for effective communication, especially in data collection, distress alerting, and position location and coordinating relief operations in the field. In addition, Search and Rescue satellites provide capabilities such as position determination facilities onboard which could be useful in a variety of land, sea and air distress situations.
122
Losses of Natural Disasters
123
are injured. Homes, office buildings, shopping centres, highways, and other physical facilities are destroyed. El Nino Caused Natural Disasters of 1997-1998 A recent series of weather disasters were caused by the record largest El Nino of 1997-1998, an event to which several intense storms across the United States were attributed. The term El Nino ("the child" or "the Christ child") refers to a warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Through history, this pool of warm surface water periodically appeared off coastal Ecuador, Peru, and Chile near Christmas. The tremendous amount of energy contained within this water has the ability to disrupt atmospheric patterns throughout the region and across the planet. The El Nino which developed in the eastern tropical Pacific during the summer of 1997, and lasted through much of 1998, was exceptionally warm and ultimately "blamed'' for several weather-related disasters in the United States during that period. As forecasted when the El Nino developed during JuneAugust 1997, California was assaulted by a series of coastal storms and heavy rains causing floods, numerous landslides, and damages to the state's valuable agriculture, with losses totaling nearly $1 billion statewide. Florida, Texas, and other southern states were struck by a large number of severe storms and numerous tornadoes. Tornadoes led to more than 60 deaths, and El Nino-caused losses in Florida exceeded $500 million. A record early snowstorm swept across the High Plains in October 1997, and severe ice storms struck the Northeast in January 1998, creating losses in excess of $300 million and 28 deaths. The effects of El Nino on storm activity occurred from September 1997 through April 1998. The property insurance industry identified 15 catastrophes (events each causing greater than $25 million) during the 8-month period ending in May 1998, when El Nino's influence on the weather had largely ended. The total insured losses by these catastrophes reached $1.7 billion. Even after the storm activity ended, more damages occurred. Widespread fires broke out in Florida during June, fueled by a heavy growth of underbrush caused by the unusually heavy El Nino-caused winter rains. FEMA relief payments
4
LOSSES OF NATURAL DISASTERS
The United States has experienced natural disasters since the nation's founding over 200 years ago. During the 1980's and 1990's the United States experienced numerous, expensive-and frequently deadly-natural disasters. These disasters and their impacts have become part of our history: the drought in the central United States in 1988, Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and the Northridge California earthquake of 1994 were the nation's three most costly to date. Through the course of this committee's study, the nation experienced a severe ice storm in the northeast United States, devastating floods along the Rio Grande and in southeast Texas, heavy rains and landslides in southern California, a five-week succession of wildfires in Florida, a severe drought in south and east Texas, and three major hurricanes which impacted the southeastern United States. The committee also conducted its study during the fabled El Nino of 1997-1998. This warming of surface water in the central and South Pacific and attendant effects on global weather patterns was-rightly or wrongly-blamed for many of the nation's and planet's weather-related hazards during this period, and ''some forecasters have warned the nation to brace itself for much more expensive disasters in the future" (Larson, 1998). A Brief Introduction to their Effects Anyone who has lived through a major hurricane or an earthquake does not have to be told of a natural disaster's destructive impacts. People are often killed and many others
124
125
reached $300 million by the end of March 1998 and 18 presidentially declared disasters occurred from the fall of 1997 through April 1998, and all were partly attributed to El Nino's influence on the atmosphere. El Nino events have become stronger and more frequent since 1980, certainly one reason for the increased losses from weather-related natural disasters over the past 15 years. In true megadisasters-such as the Northridge earthquake in California or Hurricane Andrew in Florida-the destruction can severely interrupt work, traffic, and the daily routine of a large area for months and, to some extent, years after the event. Experts in the field of disaster cost estimation use various terms to describe the effects of disasters, not always consistently. It is therefore important to define at the outset how these terms are used in this report: The impacts of a disaster is the broadest term, and includes both market-based and nonmarket effects. For example, market-based impacts include destruction to property and a reduction in income and sales. No market effects include environmental consequences and psychological effects suffered by individuals involved in a disaster. In principle, individual impacts can be either negative or positive, though obviously the impacts of disasters are predominantly undesirable. The loss of disasters represents market-based negative economic impacts. These consist of direct losses that result from the physical destruction of buildings, crops, and natural resources and indirect losses that represent the consequences of that destruction, such as temporary unemployment and business interruption. The costs of disasters, as the term is conventionally used, typically refers to cash payouts by insurers and governments to reimburse some (and in certain cases all) of the losses suffered by individuals and businesses. Losses suffered by those who are uninsured, those whose losses do not make them eligible for insurance payments,
and those who do not receive government relief should be counted in any complete compilation of the impacts of a disaster-but these losses are not included as "costs," as that term is used in this report. The damages caused by disasters refer to physical destruction, measured by physical indicators, such as the numbers of deaths and injuries or the number of buildings destroyed. When valued in monetary terms, damages become direct losses. The formal charge to this committee was to "identify the cost components that, when combined, would most accurately reflect the total cost of a natural disaster event. To the extent possible, the committee will identify the relative importance of the components for accurate characterization of an individual event and the significance of the different components across the spectrum of hazards. The committee will also suggest possible sources for accurate cost information, regardless of whether data are generally available from these sources at present." Given the formal distinction made between losses and costs, the committee felt that its deliberations and report should focus upon the losses and human impacts of natural disasters (which include costs), rather than the costs alone. One important request of this committee was to identify those data, which should be consistently collected in compiling estimates of a natural disaster's impact. The committee felt that these data should include not only the cash payouts from governments and insurance companies (costs), but also a wider range of impacts. This report concentrates on how best to measure the economic losses in disasters, as they are either the most easily measured or the best understood. Nonetheless, it was recognized that noneconomic consequences of disasters, such as environmental impacts, can be very important and, in some instances, may exceed direct economic losses. Studies of the impacts of natural disasters vary in their coverage of losses. Some measure only direct losses whereas
126
127
others purport to include indirect losses. Despite the difficulty of comparing different loss estimates, it is useful to be aware of the significant impacts disasters-especially megadisasterscan have. Based on available studies, Table 1 summarizes the four most expensive natural disasters in recent American history.
Table 2: Ten Costliest Natural Catastrophes, Ranked By Insurance Claims Paid

Month/Year
August 1992 January 1994 September 1989 October 1995 March 1993 October 1991 September 1996 September 1992 May 1995 October 1989
Catastrophe
Estimated insured loss ($ Millions)
Table 1: The Four Most Expensive Natural Disasters in the United States (in current dollars at the time of the disaster)
Year Event
1988 1992 1993 1994
a
Reported Loss Source

$39 $30 $19 $44 billion billion billion billion Riebsame et al., 1991 Pielke, 1995 Changnon, 1996 Eguchi et al., 1998
Droughts Hurricane Andrew Midwest floods Northridge earthquake
Direct and indirect losses combined. Other estimates refer only to direct losses.
Hurricane Andrew: wind, 15,500 flooding, tornadoes Northridge, California, earthquake 12,500 Hurricane Hugo 4,195 Hurricane Opal 2,100 20-state winter storm 1,750 Oakland, California fire 1,700 Hurricane Fran 1,600 Hurricane Iniki 1,600 Texas and New Mexico, Wind, 1,135 hail, flooding Loma Prieta, California earthquake 960
Table 1 is interesting, not only because of the magnitude of the costs of these large disasters, but also because it highlights their diverse nature: no single type of disaster dominates the list. It bears emphasis that the loss estimates illustrated in Table 1 should be viewed as best guesses, for there is no official disaster cost accounting system in the United States. What information we have must be compiled from different studies that use different estimation techniques and raw data sources. In addition, although insured property losses tend to be estimated reasonably well, there is much greater uncertainty about uninsured losses, which can be substantial. This point is underscored in Table 1, which shows the top disasters ranked by their property insurance claims. Notice that on this list Hurricane Andrew ranks first and Northridge second. Neither the 1993 Midwest floods nor the 1988 drought even make the list because most of the losses in those events were not privately insured or were indirect.
Note: Dollar losses are stated in the year of the event. Source: Insurance Information Institute, 1998.
The United States has borne significant costs not just from the major events shown in Tables 1 and 2 but also from the combination of the hundreds of smaller natural disasters that occur every year. Catastrophes in the United States are identified, tracked, and reported by Property Claims Services (PCS), an insurance industry organization specializing in the property insurance business. PCS is best known for its work in catastrophes and is recognized internationally as the singular source of information concerning insured damage resulting from most major natural disasters in the United States. PCS also serves as the property insurance industry's liaison with federal and state government officials, consumer organizations, and the media regarding insurance issues associated with catastrophes. Property Claims Services was originally a division of the National Board of Fire Underwriters, which initiated the catastrophe identification system in 1949. This system was developed to address the insurers' needs to quantify the impact
128
129
of catastrophes on insurance coverages. As more Americans bought homes and moved to suburban areas after World War II, there was little information about severe weather events across the country. Since 1949, PCS has identified over 1,200 catastrophes affecting U.S. insurers. PCS currently identifies a catastrophe as an event, which causes $25 million, or more in insured, direct property damage, and affects a significant number of property owners. This threshold has been adjusted through time: when PCS was founded in 1949, $1 million of insured, direct property damage constituted a catastrophe, in 1983 it was revised to $5 million, and was revised for a third time in 1997 to $25 million. For those events that exceeded the PCS definition of a catastrophe, the costs have increased as follows: 933 major events resulted in costs of $22 billion from 1949 to 1988; 312 major events resulted in costs of $79 billion from 1989 to 1997 (Kunreuther and Roth, 1998). The causes of the mounting costs of disasters in the United States will continue to be debated. But certainly a major contributing factor has been the increased exposure of property and human beings to disasters. The nation's population has grown significantly since World War II, and more people than ever before live and work in disaster-prone areas-especially coastlines, floodplains, and seismically active regions. Various forms of economic development have also driven up the costs of natural disasters. For example, the destruction of wetlands, the clearing of forests for a range of human activities, and the paving of roads and parking lots all have increased the peaks of runoff from heavy rainfall. Furthermore, greater wealth means we simply have more to lose in disasters. Policymakers and citizens should be aware of these trends as they make decisions, which affect the location of future housing and business developments. These societal trends help explain predictions of continuing increases in the losses from future natural hazards. Why Loss Estimates Matter Who should care about disaster loss estimates, and why? There are several reasons, which matter to different
constituencies. The federal government has a strong interest, on behalf of taxpayers, in accurate and comprehensive direct loss data. Largely through the Federal Emergency Management Agency, but also through several other agencies, the federal government covers a substantial portion of disaster-induced losses that are suffered by local and state governments, as well as by individuals and businesses that are otherwise privately uninsured. Figures 1-2 and 1-3 provide data on federal government payouts from 1988 to 1997 and 1986 to 1997. As these figures demonstrate, FEMA provides only part of the federal disaster assistance effort. Other key federal agencies with disaster assistance programmes include the Small Business Administration (SBA), U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), U.S. Department of Interior (DOI), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), National Weather Service (NWS), Department of Energy (DOE), and Department of Labour (DOL). Although extreme geophysical events cannot be avoided, their impacts can be reduced by government policies, or hazard mitigation initiatives such as reinforcing structures to enable them to better withstand the shock of an earthquake, elevating structures to reduce flood damages, land use planning to decrease structural exposures to natural hazards, and other measures. Because mitigation can be costly, however, it is important for policymakers at all levels of government also to be aware of the total losses of disasters-and ideally of the extent to which those losses can be reduced by various mitigation strategiesso that cost-effective mitigation strategies can be designed and implemented. The same is also true for the private sector, where costeffective mitigation measures can and should be used to reduce losses in future disasters. Policymakers should have an interest in accurate direct loss data for reasons that extend beyond mitigation. At this writing, Congress is considering proposals to establish a federal reinsurance programme to support the private sector's supply
130
131
of homeowners insurance for claims related to natural disasters (although critics of these proposals argue, among other things, that the expansion of reinsurance capacity in recent years makes federal intervention less necessary). If such a programme is enacted, historical loss data will be essential both to potential buyers and the government (as the seller of the reinsurance, a type of insurance the government makes available to insurers to help protect them in the event of catastrophic events) so that all parties can be informed when bidding for or negotiating reinsurance contracts. An understanding of losses and their growth has been the basis for enacting foresighted legislation. Ex post analysis of the 1993 Mississippi floods, for example, led to needed revisions in crop insurance, flood insurance premiums, as well as broader programmatic changes in flood insurance. Insurers clearly have a commercial interest in accurate data on costs covered under their policies: claims for property damage and related economic costs and for loss of life and injuries. Insurers also maintain their own payout data in order to operate their businesses. But to set actuarially sound rates, each insurer needs comprehensive data on payouts made by all insurers. Historical claims data must be combined with models that project the probabilities of future events over a range of possible magnitudes-as uncertain as these probabilities are-so that insurers can estimate expected future payouts. State insurance regulators must know and be able to project disaster related costs in order to properly regulate or monitor insurance premiums. Individuals and businesses have an interest in knowing the costs and losses of different types of disasters to help inform decisions about insurance, mitigation, and government policies for compensation of victims. As mentioned, however, there is no comprehensive disaster loss information available from either public or private sources. Imagine if that were the case for statistics about the overall U.S. economy: no indicators of national or regional unemployment, output, or inflation. Policymakers would be
severely hampered in their efforts at setting sound economic and monetary policies. Private actors in the economy would not know whether it was in their interest to increase or reduce their investments, consumption, or other economic activities. Finally, researchers and experts in disaster loss estimation could benefit enormously from having a standardized database of losses and other impact information that would permit them to improve their models that estimate both direct and indirect losses of disasters. Such improvements, in turn, would assist policymakers in designing cost-effective mitigation policies by simulating benefits and costs of alternative policies. Fortunately, some cost data for natural disasters are collected in the public and private sectors. So do insurance companies. But data are not now generally available for uninsured and indirect losses. More broadly, there is no comprehensive and reasonably accurate database that pulls all of the relevant information together in a way that can be easily accessed and used by a variety of professionals. In making this observation, we do not mean to suggest that the federal government should create a database containing loss information for every adverse natural event. Instead, the objective should be to compile data on disasters that cross some threshold. Who Bears the Loss? It is important not only to assemble the total losses of disasters but also to apportion those losses among all those who bear them-at least initially. Citizens and policymakers should know to what extent the losses are privately borne, especially through insurance, and what portion is paid by local, state, and federal governments. From the national taxpayer perspective, policies should aim to internalize to the maximum extent the losses of disastersthat is, induce individuals, businesses, and local and state governments to recognize and accept responsibility to purchase insurance (or to establish the functional equivalent of selfinsurance pools) or mitigate such losses rather than to have the federal government come in after the fact and pay for the expense of reconstruction and cleanup.
132
133
But of course there are limits to the losses insurers bear. For example, although the typical homeowners' insurance policy covers damages to the physical structure of a home, some policies may not cover the entire replacement cost (unless such protection is specifically purchased). Homeowners' policies also may cover some, but not all, of the contents of a residence. In addition, private homeowners' insurance typically does not cover flood loss (flood insurance must be purchased separately through the National Flood Insurance Programme, managed by FEMA), and it may not cover earthquake damage unless specifically purchased (and even then, coverage may be limited). A common dilemma that disaster managers and policymakers face involves the issue of extending federal financial assistance to homeowners who refuse (or who are unable to do so due to low income) to adequately insure their property against disasters, despite warnings or previous experience with the same type of disaster. Extending federal assistance to those who did not insure and are financially capable of doing so discourages the purchase of insurance and the adoption of appropriate mitigation measures. Starting in the late 1980's, FEMA received a regular annual appropriation of $320 million to cover the costs of its relief efforts. For fiscal year 1999, Congress reduced this figure to $308 million. FEMA's regular annual appropriations, however, seldom cover all the costs of federal disaster relief it is responsible for paying in a single fiscal year. Table 3 lists the ten costliest disasters measured by FEMA relief payments. Clearly, the sums shown in the table have greatly exceeded FEMA's relatively meager annual appropriations. FEMA has been able to make its payments only by receiving supplemental appropriations at various times. Until the Northridge earthquake, these supplementals were treated as emergencies for budget purposes and simply added to the deficit. Beginning with the Northridge earthquake supplemental request, Congress required all disaster supplementals (for FEMA and other federal agencies) to be offset with cuts in expenditures elsewhere.
1994 1992 1989 1993 1989 1996 1995 1994 1997 1996
Table 3 Top Ten Disasters Requiring FEMA Assistance (Through Mid-1998)

Event Amount of Assistance (in millions of dollars)
5,997 1,772
Northridge, California, earthquake Hurricane Andrew (Florida, Louisiana)
Hurricane Hugo (North Carolina, South Carolina, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands) 1,318 Midwest floods Loma Prieta, California, earthquake Hurricane Fran (Eastern states) Hurricane Marilyn (Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands) Tropical Storm Alberto (Alabama, Florida, Georgia) Upper Midwest floods (Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota) Mid-Atlantic and northeast floods 425 366 l,147 837 560 524 438
Source: FEMA, 1998.
The table excludes Hurricane Georges because payout data were not available at the time the report was prepared. The doller figures are in nominal terms (and thus have not been adjusted for inflation). It is important to keep in mind that the federal government is not the only level of government involved in providing disaster assistance. Local and state governments also shoulder significant responsibility for managing emergencies. Federal agencies, particularly FEMA, stimulate and guide emergency planning efforts, furnish substantial response and recovery funding, coordinate response efforts after (and sometimes before) a governor secures help from the president, and fund many disaster mitigation endeavours. In addition, significant costs are borne by volunteer disaster relief organizations, which are important sources of loss data.
134
135
COMMITTEES OF NATURAL DISASTERS
This committee was requested to identify the cost components that, when combined, would most accurately reflect the total cost of a natural disaster event. The committee thus identified the data it felt should be consistently used in compiling accurate loss estimates. The committee acknowledged that many of the losses in natural disasters are intangible and difficult to quantify, such as personal anguish, the loss of family treasures, and the disruption of family and work routines. Indeed, these losses may sometimes be greater than the losses of direct physical destruction. Despite the importance of such losses, however, the great difficulties in objectively measuring them make their use in consistent and accurate loss estimations problematic. The committee's recommendations for those data to be used in compiling accurate loss estimates thus focus on direct losses, as they are easier to objectively measure. This chapter is devoted to direct loss measurement and those direct loss data, which should be included in loss estimates. It is useful to distinguish between the physical destruction caused by natural disasters to human beings and property, which is the subject of the current chapter, and the consequences of that destruction, considered in the next chapter. In economic terms, physical destruction may be thought of as a loss in asset value (and is often referred to as the direct loss from the event), whereas the consequences of that destruction may be considered to be the loss of income and/or production and impacts on the environment that cannot be readily stated in monetary terms (all of which are included among a disaster's indirect impacts). So-called direct losses in turn consist of two more refined types of losses. Primary direct losses are those resulting from the immediate destruction caused by the event, such as shake damage from an earthquake or water and wind damage from a hurricane. Secondary direct losses are those additional impacts resulting from follow-on physical destruction, such as
fire following an earthquake (due perhaps to breaks in gas lines) or additional water damage to unrepaired structures from rain following a hurricane (as happened after Hurricane Andrew). A third important distinction is the difference between reimbursed and unreimbursed losses from natural disasters. Reimbursed losses-referred to in this report as the ''costs" of a natural disaster-include loss claims that are paid by private insurers or local, state, and federal governments. In contrast, unreimbursed losses are the uncompensated impacts that victims must bear. Different types of disasters tend to produce different proportions of reimbursed and unreimbursed losses. For example, a larger fraction of the total losses from earthquakes typically is unreimbursed-primarily because many consumers and businesses choose not to purchase insurance coverage and secondarily because insurance policies for these disasters typically contain large deductibles-than is the case for hurricanes and other windstorms. It cannot be emphasized too strongly that policymakers concerned with devising effective mitigation measures must take account of all losses, whether reimbursed or unreimbursed. Some natural disasters trigger the expenditure of additional resources devoted to mitigating future disasters. For example, presidentially declared disasters generally trigger FEMA expenditures on mitigation, provided they are matched to some degree (with some exceptions) by state and/or local governments. In the balance of this chapter, we address three central questions: What information about the destruction caused by natural disasters should ideally be collected and reported? What data about the destructive impacts of natural disasters are actually collected and reported? What steps need to be taken to ensure that all of the relevant information about the destruction due to natural disasters is collected and reported consistently?
136
137
Data Relating to Physical Destruction: The Ideal Researchers seem never to have enough data. But collecting information is costly for those who must supply it as well as for those who must compile, organize, and distribute it. The challenge for policymakers interested in obtaining comprehensive and accurate data on the direct costs of natural disasters is to balance the benefits of allowing many constituencies (including the government) access to the information against the costs imposed on others (and the government) in attempting to collect and distribute it. In principle, the desired data should be collected in a disaggregated form across several dimensions. Once collected, the data can be reaggregated and reported in multiple ways, depending on the purposes for which they may be used. Whatever data are compiled should ideally be categorized by type of disaster so that insurers, citizens, and policymakers can be informed of the relative severities and costs of the various events. In our judgment, these should be classified as hurricanes, floods (caused by events other than hurricanes), earthquakes, wildfires, landslides, volcanic eruptions, drought, winter storms, windstorms, hail, tornadoes, and all other events with losses above a certain threshold. Different kinds of disasters entail different types of losses and it is important in both the private and public sectors to be aware of these impacts. Similarly, all cost and loss data should be coded by the state(s) and, if possible, by county and zip code where the losses occur in order to identify where mitigation measures may be most necessary. In addition, statespecific data will be essential if the federal government is authorized to offer disaster related reinsurance to the private market, because it is possible that some coverage may be offered on a state or regional basis. For each major event (or annually by type of event, as the case may be), efforts should be made to collect and report data for both the type of damage caused, and which parties initially bear the losses (we stress the
term "initially" because some losses are eventually passed forward to consumers). Natural disasters generally result in the following categories of destruction: to property (structures, contents, and transportation vehicles) with different types of owners (individual residences, businesses, and government-owned infrastructure); to agricultural products (crops and livestock); and to people (injuries and death, life insurance payouts, and medical treatment expenses). In addition, disasters require expenditures for response and cleanup and temporary living expenses of displaced people. These losses are absorbed by insurers, governments, businesses, individuals, and nongovernmental organizations (such as charities and relief agencies). As a practical matter, some loss data that are now collected do not (and indeed cannot) distinguish between primary and secondary impacts. But conceptually the distinction is important. As an example, the roofs of homes blown off by hurricanes (a primary impact) will be covered by homeowners' insurance. A well-constructed home, whose roof stays attached during a hurricane, but is damaged by rising water (a secondary impact), is not covered unless the homeowner carries flood insurance. If the roof is blown off, it may be difficult to distinguish which caused the damage first-the roof being dislodged or the rising water. The definition of a "major" natural disaster (for which loss data are to be compiled) should be consistent. One definition would include all events that the president certifies as a "major disaster" under the Stafford Act (and thus whose victims become eligible for disaster assistance provided through FEMA), as well as events in which costs rise above a certain dollar threshold (such as the $25 million now used by PCS). The Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (P.L. 93-288, as amended) is the core statute under which federal emergency management is conducted. The Stafford Act authorizes the president to issue major
138
139
disaster or emergency declarations, sets broad eligibility criteria, and specifies the type of assistance the president may authorize. There necessarily is some element of judgment required in deciding at what point to cut off the cumulating claims following a specific event or whether to treat a series of events-such as several days of heavy rainfall or an earthquake followed by several aftershocks-as a single event for purposes of satisfying the dollar threshold. Rather than offer specific recommendations for this problem, we suggest that the agencies we recommend be charged with additional data collection responsibilities (described later in this chapter) strive to ensure that the methods used for different types of disasters are consistent. Measuring precisely the losses of natural disasters takes time. In the case of earthquakes, many victims may not know for weeks or months the extent of the damage their homes or businesses have suffered. Initial loss estimates may thus understate actual losses, potentially by wide margins. For example, it was several months after the 1994 Northridge earthquake until many building owners realized that their buildings required major renovation. Ultimately, privately insured damages from that earthquake, initially estimated at $2.5 billion, exceeded $10 billion. Any comprehensive loss database should therefore be held open to reflect revised data (just as economic data are now revised, often years later, to take account of new information and methods of estimation). Ideally, not only should detailed loss data be collected for all major disasters, but an attempt should also be made to gather as much historical data as are available. The more complete the database, the greater use it will be to all potential users-in government and in the private sector. Direct-Impact Data: The Reality The reality is short of the ideal. The types of loss data that are currently collected, at least by some organizations (private
or public), are reviewed below. We do so by identifying the sources of the data, classified by parties that bear those losses. Insurance Claims Disaster-induced losses typically are reimbursed to some extent by insurance companies. Many people who die in a natural disaster may have life insurance; others who are injured may carry medical insurance. In principle, these claims data are kept by the policyholders' insurance companies. As a practical matter, however, it is not clear to what extent these companies identify claims that are disaster related. The situation is clearer for disaster-related property damage. The most comprehensive database of insurance claims payments for property damage is the one compiled by Property Claims Services for catastrophe-triggered events. PCS has collected these data since 1949, using a dollar cost threshold to determine whether an event qualifies as a major disaster. If so, each event is assigned a number and claims for it are updated as they come in. As mentioned, the PCS threshold was initially $1 million and has twice been revised upward (to $5 million in 1983 and to $25 million in 1997). By these criteria, PCS has collected data on approximately 1,200 catastrophes. If PCS used a common threshold for the entire period since 1949-such as the 1997 cutoff of $25 million, adjusted backward in prior years for inflation-the total number of catastrophes in the PCS database would be somewhat lower. The PCS database is the most comprehensive one available for insured losses generated by natural disasters. One useful feature of the data is that they are maintained separately for each major event, by state. A drawback, however, is that the data combine rather than disaggregate losses to property, contents, business interruption and additional living expenses of individuals and families. Another drawback is that the PCS database does not include damage due to floods, and it combines cost data for wind and hailstorms and tornadoes. Separately, the Institute for Business and Home Safety (IBHS) in 1994 began to compile more disaggregated catastrophe claims information, using the PCS dollar cost thresholds. The
140
141
IBHS database compiles actual paid losses of large insurers who account for most of the property-casualty market. Estimates are then made (using market shares) of the claims paid by other, smaller insurers. The IBHS database has the advantage of breaking down damages suffered by businesses and individuals, to buildings and their contents, and by location (state, county, and zip code). Neither PCS nor IBHS maintains data on insured claims paid to individuals for injuries and deaths. In principle, these data are available from medical and life insurers, but to this committee's knowledge, no systematic effort has been made by any organization, public or private, to assemble it. We recommend that the agency charged with assembling the loss data make use of the PCS and IBHS databases. To the extent the agencies find these sources of information inadequate, we recommend that the federal government work with relevant insurance trade associations and with state insurance commissioners (either with their trade association, the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, or the commissioners of individual states) to obtain data suitable for federal purposes. Since the data sought would be aggregated across insurers, it should not run up against the confidentiality concerns of insurers. The state insurance commissioners in particular should have an interest in cooperating with the federal government in a data collection effort, as they have direct responsibility for overseeing both the rates and the solvency of the insurers who do business in their states. In that capacity, they also have the legal means to compel production of the data. Working with the federal government to standardize data requests would ease the burdens on insurers while providing the government and the public with the information in the most suitable form. One interesting complication with losses to insurers should be noted. In a worst case, some disasters could be large enough that they force the bankruptcy of one or more insurers (as was the case with Hurricane Andrew). In that event, claims on insurers would appear to exceed the losses that the industry
actually bears. In fact, this is not likely to be the case. States have guaranty funds, which pay claims of failed insurers. These funds typically are financed by post-event assessments on other, surviving insurers doing business in the state. As a result, the insurance industry as a whole is almost certainly likely to bear all of the claims on it even though individual insurers might be forced into insolvency. Losses to Government All branches of government-federal, state, and local and tribal-bear losses associated with natural disasters, which fall into four categories. First, the largest costs are disaster payments made to individuals and businesses by the various governments, primarily agencies of the federal government. The main source of federal disaster aid is FEMA, which provides grants to individuals, states, and local governments suffering damage due to presidentially declared disasters. When the president declares an area eligible for disaster assistance, FEMA makes money available to the states, which normally is conditioned on state matches of 25 percent of the total. The president may waive all or part of the state match, which often occurs in especially large disasters (as was the case in Hurricane Andrew and the Mississippi floods). FEMA can distribute, however, only the funds that are made available to it by the Congress through the appropriations process. In recent years, FEMA's disaster payments have significantly exceeded the agency's annual appropriation for such assistance (which, as noted in the first chapter, for the past several years has been $320 million, but in fiscal year 1999 was lowered to $308 million). The additional funds have been provided through supplemental appropriations, which until 1995 were added to the overall federal budget without offsets (reductions in other expenditures) in other federal programmes. Since then, Congress has required cuts in appropriations of other agencies to pay for supplemental disaster aid. FEMA maintains current and historical data on the assistance it pays, by event, by state, and by type of aid: for
142
143
infrastructure damage, payments to individuals for property damage, and payments to individuals for adjustment (temporary housing, unemployment, inspections, crisis counseling, and legal services). In addition, FEMA separately maintains data on grants and contracts for mitigation of hazards. FEMA does not, however, maintain data on private-sector costs arising from disasters. The Small Business Administration (SBA) is another important source of disaster aid, providing low-interest (between 4-8 percent) loans to credit worthy businesses and individuals (approximately 60 percent of disaster victims who apply) who have suffered property damage from a disaster. The SBA currently compiles its lending data by event and by type of property (and could, if given the resources, aggregate the assistance by type of disaster). The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) also offers lending assistance to farmers and ranchers for losses to crops and livestock due to disasters declared by the president or governors. It is important to note that the true costs of federal loan programmes are not measured by the total amount of loans disbursed, but instead by the present value of the interest subsidies on those loans. Second, governments bear damage-related losses to the buildings and infrastructure they own. To a significant extent, the federal government assumes much of the costs that otherwise would be borne by the states and localities. For example, damaged buildings owned by state and local governments (and certain nonprofit organizations) are eligible for compensation by FEMA if the disasters are large enough to merit a presidential declaration. The Federal Highway Administration (FHA) compensates states for up to 90 percent of the costs associated with the repair of roads if a disaster is declared either by the president or the state's governor. In addition, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) provides funds for repair of damaged housing and public facilities through its regular Community Development Block Grant programme (some portion of whose
grants some localities use for disaster recovery) or, in the event of large disasters, through supplemental appropriations granted by Congress. The federal government also bears the losses of damages to property that it owns directly. Obvious examples include damaged federal buildings and facilities. Less known but often significant are damages caused by drought, fires, and floods to federally owned land and forests. For example, the Mississippi floods of 1993 caused $143 million in damages to federal facilities (Changnon, 1996b). Third, all levels of government bear costs in responding to disasters, although for major disasters FEMA compensates local and state governments for their response and cleanup. In addition, FEMA reimburses the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) for post-disaster counseling (although HHS provides a modest amount of health care assistance out of its own budget). And perhaps the largest response costs are those that fall on the Department of Interior, which typically spends several hundred million dollars a year fighting fires. Finally, the federal government operates two major insurance programmes that offer coverage-and thus make payouts-for certain disaster-induced damages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture provides insurance covering crop losses from a range of weather-related impacts (e.g., drought, flood, hail, excess moisture), and losses due to insects. The department collects data on loss payouts by type of crop but not by type of disaster. Meanwhile, the National Flood Insurance Programme (NFIP), provides flood insurance to businesses and individuals in flood-prone areas. The NFIP includes three essential components: risk identification, hazard mitigation, and insurance. While the authority for the NFIP rests with FEMA, effective integration of these three components requires cooperation between the federal, state, and local governments and the private property insurance sector (Pasterick, 1998). By definition, the losses
144
145
from this programme are well identified with a single type of disaster (although it is not clear if the data on flood losses can be broken out by type of loss-that is, to structures, personal property, and the like). The growth in the costs of natural disasters during the 1990's-both to the private sector and to the government-suggests that federal, state, and local governments should adopt a more systematic approach to data collection for their disaster costs. Such a database would be useful for several reasons: A comprehensive data base and accompanying report would inform policymakers in both the executive and legislative branches, as well as the broader public, how sizable these losses probably are and clarify which government agencies actually deliver disaster-related aid and services. In addition, this information is critical for developing and implementing cost-effective ways to mitigate the losses of natural disasters. Comprehensive data on the federal government's spending on disasters would assist both the executive and legislative branches in budgeting and planning for disaster-related expenditures. The committee recognizes that members of each branch have incentives not to budget all such expenditures in advance, as there are political gains from appearing to take concrete actions in the immediate aftermath of a disaster, such as proposing and voting on large disaster relief supplementals (additional items in the federal budget). However, the short-run political gains have economic consequences: the supplementals require offsetting cuts in other programmes in midyear, as has been the case since the Northridge supplemental considered by Congress in 1995. Offsets randomly interrupt the functioning of other parts of the federal government, delaying the delivery of services and potentially adding to the cost of implementing or developing government programmes. The availability of a comprehensive data base, with suitable historical data, might enable policymakers to smooth out disaster-related costs by
budgeting them at actuarially appropriate levels, with any surpluses banked in a reserve to be drawn down in years when actual payouts are larger than anticipated. But even small steps toward better planning, short of establishing a single or multiple disaster accounts in the appropriations process, cannot be taken until and unless the information is compiled. Assembling the federal government's disaster cash payouts data can also be usefully compared to the tally of losses absorbed by the private sector (insured and self-insured). Such a comparison would reveal the relative financial burdens of the government and the private sector in connection with disasters. It might also encourage greater use of insurance rather than reliance on taxpayer-supported government expenditures. As it is, the prospect that they might receive some disaster aid reduces the incentive of individuals and businesses to purchase insurance to cover such expenses. What many uninsured individuals and businesses may not realize is that although they may well receive some compensation from the federal government if they are victims of a major disaster, the federal aid is unlikely to be as generous or promptly paid as it would be if the individuals opted to purchase insurance. To the extent individuals and businesses in areas subject to catastrophic hazards are informed of the limits of federal aid for disasters, it is possible that some who now are uninsured, perhaps out of ignorance, will buy insurance, modify existing structures to better withstand disaster impacts, or otherwise internalize risks that the government (and taxpayers) now carry. Losses to Businesses To the extent businesses have insurance for property damage, their covered losses are included in the losses borne by insurance companies. Nonetheless, because insurance policies carry deductibles, even insured commercial operations suffer some losses, whereas businesses that self-insure for natural disasters absorb all of the losses themselves.
146
147
Business losses are, for all practical purposes, not covered by government disaster programmes (though both homeowners and businesses can write off their uninsured losses for tax purposes). To be sure, the Small Business Administration and the U.S. Department of Agriculture provide loans for reconstruction, but a loan is still a loan, not a grant. Even businesses that qualify for federal lending assistance eventually bear the full losses themselves. In 1993 the flooded railroads in the Midwest experienced uninsured losses of $169 million (Changnon, 1996a). In principle, insurers who pay claims made by businesses have the data to compute the total amounts of deductibles that their commercial clients must absorb, but no organization currently compiles that information. In addition, some federal agencies may have data on their disaster-related loans that could permit estimates to be made of the losses incurred by businesses that qualify for federal loans (although these data may not be disaggregated by kind of disaster, location, or type of damage-that is, to structures or contents). To the committee's knowledge, there is no organization that maintains data on disaster-related losses absorbed by businesses that self-insure. Losses to Individuals Finally, many individuals also self-insure some or all of their losses from disasters, although the extent of reinsurance varies by type of disaster. According to information supplied by a PCS representative, roughly 95 percent of buildings damaged by hurricanes are typically insured, whereas only about 10-15 percent of all California homes are covered by earthquake insurance. Similarly, most potential victims of flood damage do not purchase insurance through the National Flood Insurance Programme. For example, in the 1993 Mississippi River flooding these numbers were disturbingly low: ''in the counties and communities affected, it is estimated that no more than 10 percent of insurable properties had flood insurance coverage" (Wright, 1996). As with businesses, even insured individuals
carry deductibles on their policies. Other individuals may receive some federal aid, which may or may not fully compensate their property losses and temporary expenses. And still other individuals and their families may suffer losses but receive no compensation from either private or public sources. For example, a 1997-winter storm caused $25 million of uninsured losses to property owners in Lincoln, Nebraska, and a 1996 snowstorm in Cleveland caused homeowners $5 million in uninsured losses. Again, in principle, insurance companies-property-casualty and medical-should be able to compute or estimate the total amounts of their deductibles for given events or types of disasters. Similarly, it should be possible for FEMA and/or other government agencies that now provide disaster aid to individuals to ascertain their total property damages. In practice, none of these data on self-insured losses absorbed by individuals are systematically compiled by any organization. The same is true with respect to losses suffered by individuals who do not qualify for or who do not seek either private insurance payments or government assistance. Even more important than the monetary damages suffered by individuals in disasters are the injuries and fatalities that often occur. Through the National Weather Service (NWS), the federal government currently collects comprehensive data on injuries and fatalities in all weather-related events, however small. These data are provided to FEMA. As valuable as it is, the NWS data set contains two shortcomings for purposes of this report: it excludes fatalities and injuries from earthquakes and other geohazards, and it is not clear if the data on disasters below some dollar loss threshold can be easily separated from the larger disasters that, in our view, should be the primary focus of a comprehensive federal disaster data collection effort. Standardizing Loss Estimates In addition to the lack of a comprehensive database, there exists no standardized estimation technique or framework for compiling loss estimates from individual disasters. Most
148

Food claims 0.096
149 FEMA Flood Insurance Administration, reported in Rappaport, 1993. Swenson, 1993. GAO, 1993; for DOE and USACE expenses during recovery.
estimates are ad hoc, consisting of those losses that were significant in a particular event. As a result, the range of loss estimates of a natural disaster tends to vary widely, sometimes as much as 10-fold. Table 2 is an example of one framework used in compiling a loss estimate for Hurricane Andrew. This estimate, like all others, is not standardized, and different groups and individuals compiled their own, unique loss estimates from Hurricane Andrew. There is a range of loss estimates following a disaster, but no official estimate (or official scorekeeper).
Red Cross Defense Department
0.070 1.412
Source: Pielke, 1995.
The lack of a consistent framework for loss estimation makes it difficult to accurately compare the losses of natural disaster events to one another. For example, did Hurricane Georges actually cause less damage than Hurricane Hugo or was the loss estimation framework simply different? And of the varying estimates of losses, which one is to be consistently used? Clearly, the lack of a standard framework makes it extremely difficult to accurately identify trends in natural disaster losses. Moreover, this inability makes it more difficult for the federal government to identify which disaster mitigation policies represent the more cost-effective options. In an effort to help standardize the data used in estimating the direct losses in natural disasters, we suggest the framework shown in Table 3. This table could be refined by distributing it to parties affected by disasters and asking them for input regarding additional items to be included. If used consistently, this framework should allow the federal government to begin to compile more consistent loss estimates, better understand trends in losses, and ultimately provide a basis for better decisions in hazard mitigation policy. The committee recommends that this framework be applied to all of the various types of hazards identified earlier in this chapter. In compiling data for loss estimates, it is generally recommended that losses be calculated as the cost required to restore buildings and structures to their pre-disaster condition.
Table 2. Current Dollar Estimates of $30 Billion in Damages Directly Related to Hurricane Andrew in South Florida.
Type of Loss Amount (billions of dollars)
16.5
Sources and Notes
Common insured private property
Uninsured homes Federal disaster package
0.35 6.5
Sheets, 1994; includes homes, mobile homes, commercial and industrial properties and their contents, boats, autos, farm equipment and structures, etc. Miami Herald, 16 February 1993, reported in Rappaport, 1993. Anderson et al., 1992; represents 90% of $7.2 billion package (the rest went to Louisiana). Filkins, 1994; tax revenue shortfall. Rappaport, 1993. Tanfani, 1992; Miami only. Rappaport, 1993. McNair, 1992a,b. Fatsis, 1992. Rappaport, 1993; includes state request for cleanup and repair of parks, marinas, beaches, and reefs. Rappaport, 1993.
Public infrastructure State County City Schools Agriculture Damages Lost sales Environment
0.050 0.287 0.060 1.0 1.04 0.48 2.124
Aircraft
0.02
150
151
Different hazards naturally affect structures, infrastructure, and people differently. Use of the framework proposed in Table 3 should promote a more systematic compilation of the types of losses associated with different disasters.
a. Ideally, losses of federal, state, and local and tribal governments should be separately collected and recorded. b Includes costs of added police protection immediately after the event. c. Includes expenditures of charities such as the Red Cross. Recommendations
Table 3: Sample Data on Direct Impacts per Each "Major" Event (dollar amounts should be entered in each cell in the table, except for human losses)
Who Initially Bears The Loss
Type of Loss Insurers Government Business Individuals NGO
Property: Government Structures Contents Business Structures Contents Residential Structures Contents Landscapes Autos, boats and planes Infrastructure: Utilities Transportation Agricultural products: Crops Livestock Human losses: Deaths Injuries Cleanup and response costs Adjustment costs, temporary living aid
We recommend the following steps be taken: Recommendation 1: One agency of the federal government should be made responsible for compiling a comprehensive data base containing the losses of natural disasters, adhering to the structure outlined in Table 3 wherever it is feasible. The committee believes that the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) within the U.S. Department of Commerce, in consultation with FEMA and other federal agencies involved in natural disaster preparedness, response, and mitigation activities, is best suited for this purpose.
The U.S. Department of Commerce is a logical agency to carry out this assignment because two of its major components already have related responsibilities: the National Weather Service compiles loss estimates for all weather-related disasters and the Bureau of Economic Analysis regularly compiles and reports data on the nation's economic performance, an activity closely related to collecting and reporting data on the economic impacts of natural disasters. Along with the Census Bureau and STAT-USA, BEA is part of the Commerce Department's Economics and Statistics Administration. BEA's mission is to produce and disseminate accurate, timely, and relevant statistics that provide government, businesses, households, and individuals with a comprehensive, up-to-date picture of economic activity. BEA's national, regional, and international economic accounts present basic information on key issues such as U.S. economic growth, regional economic development, and the nation's position in the world economy. The BEA develops its figures of economic performance in a setting relatively free of political bias and vested interests. For all these reasons, it appears to be the agency most capable of compiling consistent disaster loss estimates to the nation.
Note: If possible, direct primary and secondary losses should be tabulated separately.
152
153
In compiling its loss estimates on earthquakes in particular, the U.S. Department of Commerce should draw on the data supplied by state, local, and regional governments that use the HAZUS (Hazards, U.S.) earthquake loss estimation tools developed by the National Institute of Building Sciences for FEMA. The data bases, tools (e.g., GIS), and engineering and technical knowledge used in the HAZUS model for earthquake loss estimation appear to be applicable to estimating losses from major hurricanes. As such, Commerce should explore with FEMA the prospects for extending the HAZUS model to cover loss estimation from major hurricanes. The U.S. Department of Commerce might also find it useful to solicit comments on Table 3 and specifically should request interested parties to identify types of loss data that could be collected at reasonable cost following a major disaster. Similarly, the U.S. Department of Commerce could make use of simulation models such as the HAZUS model used by FEM. It is worth noting that a programme for the collection of accurate natural disaster loss data must proceed on various time scales. That is, some post disaster information tends to dissipate rapidly, requiring a rapid response with professional expertise. Other loss information can take a long time to stabilize, requiring a long-term commitment to data collection. Finally, any agency charged with the additional data collection responsibilities recommended here should be given an appropriate level of resources to do the job effectively. FEMA and the National Institute of Building Safety (NIBS) have developed an earthquake loss estimation methodology entitled HAZUS (Hazards, U.S.). This software programme was developed to help provide a standardized methodology for estimating the losses associated with earthquakes. FEMA began work on HAZUS in October 1992 and released the programme in the spring of 1997. HAZUS uses mathematical formulas and information about building stock, local geology and the location and size of potential earthquakes, economic data, and other information to estimate losses from potential earthquakes. HAZUS a geographic information system (GIS) to map and display ground shaking
the patterns of building damage, and local demographic information. Given a hypothetical earthquake event, HAZUS estimates (among other things) the violence of ground shaking, the number of buildings damaged, the number of casualties, and the estimated cost of repairing projected damage and other effects. Not only can HAZUS be used to estimate local impacts, it can be used to compare seismic risks across regions throughout the continental United States. HAZUS aims to provide local, state, and regional officials information to plan for earthquakes, mitigate against future losses, and prepare for emergency response and recovery. In addition, HAZUS may be used to prepare a quick loss estimate following an earthquake or to provide the basis to assess the nationwide risk of losses from earthquakes.
Recommendation 2: The agency charged with the overall data collection should obtain insured paid claims data from available sources, such as PCS and IBHS.
In addition, the agency should work with relevant trade associations, especially the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC), to obtain any additional data that may be useful. The NAIC could be instrumental in achieving consensus among state regulators to induce regulated insurance companies to provide the appropriate data. The agency charged with data collection should do its best to avoid double counting losses reported by different sources.
Recommendation 3: The agency charged with data collection responsibilities must also strive to collect data on losses incurred by uninsured individuals, businesses, and governments that are not otherwise reimbursed by disaster aid from some other level of government (typically the federal government).
Several avenues for estimating the disaster losses absorbed by the uninsured should be explored, including: (1) post-event sampling (for very large disasters); (2) extrapolations from other data bases, such as the data compiled by the SBA from loan applicants who presumably are not insured or not well-insured;
154
155
(3) data compiled by insurers and commercial sources of insurance data (such as PCS) that may indicate the amounts of deductibles absorbed by individuals and businesses who do receive insurance payments; and (4) extrapolations from insured claims data.
insurance payments). Furthermore, to provide some perspective on current and future loss estimates, it would be extremely helpful if these data were assembled for some historical period. The results could be published in OMB's Analytical Perspectives that accompanies the annual budget. To carry out such an exercise it would be necessary for OMB (working with FEMA and the federal agency charged with the more comprehensive data collection effort) to develop a standardized definition of what events to include in the database. One obvious defining characteristic could be dollar loss above a certain threshold, as determined by a preliminary assessment of direct losses (for example, by using loss estimation models such as HAZUS). In this connection, the relevant agencies should explore with organizations that currently maintain insurance claims data the feasibility of using different dollar cost thresholds than the ones they may currently be using (such as the $25 million per-event threshold now employed by PCS) for purposes of determining which events should be included in the data base. It may also be appropriate to add human losses to the defining criteria. The committee recognizes that because it may not be possible, or practical in light of the costs, to require all agencies immediately to work with a standardized definition. Accordingly, the use of any agreed upon definition should be phased in over some reasonable period. Once the standard becomes effective, it should not be costly for agencies to organize their data around it. If modest resources were appropriated, it would also be useful for the agencies to reorganize their historical cost data to be consistent, to the extent possible, with the new definitions so policymakers would have sufficient data from the past to make long-term projections.
Recommendation 4: The federal agency charged with the overall data collection effort should encourage and work with states and localities to collect disaster-related data.
Such data need not be reported to the federal government after every disaster but could be reported annually. Congress could amend the Stafford Act to require such reporting as a condition for states and localities to receive federal disaster aid in the future, although such a requirement could be viewed as an unfunded mandate and thus subject to further analysis before being implemented. In addition, it is not clear if the federal government has the legal authority to audit any cost data submitted by the states and localities. This hurdle might be overcome, however, if the National Emergency Management Association (NEMA) developed ways to collect the data from the individual states. FEMA should work with NEMA to bring this result about.
Recommendation 5: The Office of Management and Budget, in consultation with FEMA, should develop annual, comprehensive estimates of the payouts for all disaster costs incurred by federal agencies.
As outlined above, these costs at the very least should be broken down into four categories: compensation payments to individuals and businesses (including the estimated subsidy cost of any loans designed to help cover disaster-related expenses); response costs; losses to government-owned infrastructure (including both state and local costs that are reimbursed by the federal government and damage to federally owned facilities and property); and payouts from federal insurance programmes (with annual premium receipts being shown separately). It would also be useful if the data in each category were disaggregated by type of event and loss (such as losses to buildings, other infrastructure, and compensation for lost income, in the case of disaster-related unemployment
Recommendation 6: An effort should be made to collect loss data for direct primary and secondary losses separately.
Secondary losses can be significantly affected by the availability and effectiveness of emergency response measures. Separate data on secondary losses can help policymakers to assess existing response measures, in design and in practice, and to develop improvements in the future.
156
157
INDIRECT LOSSES OF NATURAL DISASTERS
Indirect losses of natural disasters, or losses resulting from the consequences of physical destruction, have not been measured, studied, and modeled to the same extent as direct losses (the monetized losses of physical destruction). Recent unprecedented business interruption losses-$6.5 billion in Northridge (Gordon and Richardson, 1995) and a staggering $100 billion of interruption losses in the 1995 Kobe earthquake-have focused attention on the need for more intensive scientific study and measurement of these indirect losses. Evidence to date suggests that the proportion of indirect impacts increases in larger disasters, and thus may constitute a larger fraction of total losses and damage in large disasters than in smaller disasters (Gordon and Richardson, 1995 and Toyoda, 1997). By their nature, indirect losses are harder to measure than losses stemming directly from physical damage. For example, a ruptured power line is readily observed and the cost of its repair evaluated. Far less obvious are losses such as those of industries that are forced to close down because they lack critical power supplies, firms with power that lose business because suppliers or buyers lacked power, and firms that lose business because employees of firms affected by the power outage have reduced incomes and consequently spent less. Compared to a natural disaster's direct effects, indirect losses are more difficult to identify and measure, and are generally spread over a much wider area. Additionally, there are almost no programmes or processes in place to draw upon in measuring indirect losses. Two exceptions to this observation are business interruption insurance and unemployment insurance. The usefulness of these data are limited, as many firms do not carry business interruption insurance, and that many indirect effects may not qualify for reimbursement under such insurance. Similarly, unemployment insurance data do not adequately reflect employment and income losses that may occur in the wake of a natural disaster. For many, proving eligibility can be troublesome; for others, the key impact is not
unemployment per se but reduced work and income that does not qualify for programme assistance. In both situations, the coverage problem is exacerbated by the complexity of extracting the information from existing sources. Business interruption reimbursements may be lumped with other types of insurance payments. In the case of unemployment insurance, it may be difficult to separate claims attributable to the disaster and claims that would have arisen as a consequence of typical business and economic cycles. Limited available sources of data and the often high cost of primary data collection have led to attempts to measure indirect losses using statistical models of the type that have long been utilized for economic forecasting and economic impact analysis. A modeling approach is also potentially able to project expected future outcomes over a period of years, and estimate indirect losses associated with a particular actual event. The forward-looking capability is critical for developing simulation models for planning mitigation and emergency responses. Recent studies evaluating model-based estimates suggest that the models designed for traditional economic forecasting and impact analysis do not accurately estimate indirect effects that occur in the wake of a natural disaster. These models must be substantially revised in order to be reliable in estimating indirect effects. Prospects of their long-run cost-effectiveness compared with primary data collection helps justify the research and testing necessary to make the needed revisions. This chapter identifies types of indirect effects and critiques current methods of measuring indirect losses, particularly existing modeling methodologies. It also describes ways in which models can be more usefully employed to generate reasonable estimates of indirect losses. Our recommendations cumulatively constitute an agenda that addresses the current lack of information on indirect effects of natural disasters. As we believe that the Bureau of Economic Analysis could best assume responsibility for the collection of data on direct losses, we conclude that the BEA should also be charged with implementing the recommendations outlined in this chapter. Many of these recommendations call for new studies, surveys, and research.
158
159
Our knowledge of the losses exacted by natural disasters in the United States is fragmented and woefully incomplete. If significant strides are to be made in reducing those losses, sufficient funding will be required to support the studies and research described in this report. Types of Indirect Losses In the short-term, disasters can produce indirect losses and gains. Losses include: Induced losses in sales, wages, and/or profits due to loss of function. The inability to operate may derive from either direct physical damage to commercial structures or from infrastructure failure. Input/output losses to firms forward-linked or backwardlinked in production to businesses closed as a result of direct physical damage or infrastructure failure. Slowdowns or shutdowns are induced by reductions in demands for inputs and supplies of outputs from damaged firms. Spending reductions from the income losses triggered by firm closures or cutbacks-so-called multiplier, or ripple, effects. Employees of the firms experiencing reduced production and sales suffer income losses and subsequently curtail their own expenditures, initiating a new round of firm cutbacks. In addition, disasters may generate short-term gains from: Changes in future production, employment, and income and/or changes in these flows outside the damaged area (and the ripple effects thereof). Current production outside the immediate area of impact or future production within the affected region may compensate for initial disaster-induced losses. Income gains outside the impact area to owners of commodities inflated in price by disaster-induced shortages. Both agricultural commodities lost in a disaster and construction materials demanded during reconstruction are particularly likely to generate these windfall profits outside the region.
Positive economic stimuli of jobs and production generated from cleaning up and rebuilding and the multiplier effect of those increases. Disasters also have longer-term indirect impacts: altered migration flows, changes in development and housing values resulting from changes in insurance costs, reduced consumption (if borrowing occurred to repair and replace damaged structures and goods), and altered government expenditures that derive from new patterns of migration and development. From a very broad temporal and spatial perspective, the net indirect economic impacts of disasters may be zero. Though, this may seem counter-intuitive, measured over the entire economy, the negative and positive effects may cancel out. Still, precisely because the winners and losers are different groups of individuals and businesses, redistributional indirect impacts of disasters are not zero. These are three key reasons for identifying and measuring indirect impacts of disasters: (1) to inform plans for assistance to disaster victims; (2) to value mitigation measures; and, (3) to plan emergency response programmes. Indirect losses of concern to (1) and (3) are losses that occur in the immediate region of impact near the time of the event. To the extent that mitigation costs are to be borne primarily by persons and firms in the immediate area of potential impact, then region-specific net loss savings are the pertinent impacts. Even if the mitigation is federally funded, region-specific savings may still be more relevant than total savings. Assuming federal aid to immediate victims continues, there is a legitimate societal interest in preventing those immediate losses. The valuation of mitigation measures should logically include long-run regional impacts (like the delayed responses to nationwide drought in the 1930s and 1950s), but the substantial passage of time between disaster and impact renders measurement of these phenomena particularly formidable.
Recommendation 1: Measurement, study and modeling of indirect losses of natural disasters should concentrate on those losses that occur in the region of impact near the time of the event. The geographic boundaries and the time horizon
160
161
over which the measurement of indirect losses should occur need to be defined and standardized. Current Methods Two methods of ex post measurement of indirect flow losses have been identified by Brookshire et al. (1997). The first relies upon surveys of businesses and households (primary data), and the second utilizes secondary data such as tabulations of insurance claims, small business loans, and other forms of disaster relief. In fact, however, there are no mechanisms to systematically ensure that surveys are conducted, nor is there a standard survey format. As a result, no database exists that would allow the calibration of sophisticated simulation models of indirect losses to study low-probability events with potentially very large indirect losses. The lack of such a database has in turn inhibited development of simple, rule-of-thumb relationships that might permit efficient estimation of indirect losses for many purposes.
should be conducted. This study would test proposed methods using the primary survey data collected pursuant to Recommendation 3. Recommendations 3 and 3 address necessary measurement of indirect losses after natural disasters. However, ex post measurement by itself does not directly address the three primary purposes noted above for quantifying indirect effects. Determining appropriate amounts of resources for victims of disasters cannot wait until after a disaster (when a survey might be conducted). Valuing mitigation requires estimation of expected loss savings over time. Measurement of actual losses from one particular event contributes only limited information for that purpose. Finally, planning emergency response necessarily must precede a disaster. These ex ante approaches require a modeling methodology that permits forecasting (or simulation) of indirect losses. Standard regional economic forecasting or impact models have been used to "predict" indirect losses of natural disasters. These include input-output (I-O) impact models (e.g., Rose and Benavides, 1997; NIBS, 1997; Boisevert, 1992; Cochrane, 1997), computable general equilibrium models (Brookshire and McKee, 1992; Boisevert, 1995), and simultaneous equation econometric models (Ellison et al., 1984; Guimares et al., 1993; West and Lenze, 1994). The evidence to date suggests that such models appear to overstate both indirect regional economic losses from natural disasters and indirect regional economic gains from reconstruction. For example, using historical analogies to other earthquakes, Kimbell and Bolton (1994) estimated that reconstruction following the Northridge earthquake would add 20,000 jobs to the Los Angeles economy over four quarters. This estimate is far below the 270,000-job gain predicted by Cochrane et al. (1996) for the entire rebuilding period (i.e., approximately 3 years) using an input-output methodology. Actual data for the Los Angeles area following the earthquake are not consistent with such a large positive impact (Bolton and Kimbell, 1995). Similarly, West (1996), analyzed regional econometric model simulations of the impact of Hurricane Andrew published in
Recommendation 2: The agency charged with collecting the direct loss data should commission surveys for the collection of detailed indirect economic loss data from recent disasters, and establish a programme for consistently collecting such data on future disasters until a secondary methodology for ''standard" disasters can be validated. Once an adequate indirect loss database is established, such survey data should be collected for all future disasters that have initial total losses (based on model projections) that exceed $10 billion (in 1998 dollars).
Because survey data collection is relatively expensive, even when the survey has a narrowly limited time and location, it would be desirable to develop a method based on secondary data to use in ex post estimation of indirect losses for most natural disasters. Initially, however, it is necessary to build a data bank of estimated losses from primary survey data to validate the indirect methods. Once an adequate database has been established, continued surveys of major events are essential to better understand the significance of indirect losses in larger disasters.
Recommendation 3: A study to validate alternative techniques for estimating indirect losses from secondary data
162
163
West and Lenze (1994) and concluded they were clearly too high, not by a whole order of magnitude, but perhaps by 70 to 85 percent. The core of the problem with statistically based regional models is that the historical relationships embodied in these models are likely to be disrupted in a natural disaster. Temporary or emergency measures taken after disasters are not characteristic of usual socioeconomic conditions, and are therefore not reflected in the model. Economic resiliency can be expected from changes in historical regional production functions, changes in historical purchase and sale patterns, temporary reassignment of labour from outside the area, increased overtime of labour in shortage, and temporary housing arrangements (such as doubling up with relatives or residing in a hotel). In short, regional economic models have been developed over time primarily to forecast future economic conditions or to estimate the effects of a permanent change (e.g., the opening or closing of a manufacturing plant). The abruptness, impermanence, and often-unprecedented intensity of a natural disaster does not fit the event pattern upon which most regional economic models are based. The models are thus inappropriate for simulating natural disaster losses. There has been relatively little analysis on how to modify these models in order to increase their accuracy for disaster loss analysis. Secondary regional data currently available on sales, employment, wages, and income following natural disasters provide an opportunity to test possible model modifications, but this testing has not been systematically undertaken.
Optimal Methods The study suggested in Recommendation 4 would provide an important component of a model system for measuring indirect economic flow effects. But to use such a model for planning emergency response and valuing mitigation activities, one needs a microsimulation model to generate a timeline of regional commercial/industrial closures (or cutbacks) that trigger indirect losses. A microsimulation model simulates the behaviour of individual units, such as businesses or households. It contains a set of rules that define the behaviour of each unit (the rules may be probabilistic). The model provides information on an exogenous event (such as a natural disaster), allows the individual unit to respond, and then aggregates the results from those units to estimate the impacts on the economy, the market, or industries and businesses. The model may also provide iterative feedback to the individual units. The type of microsimulation model we envision, focused on specific buildings and structures, has five major components: 1. a regional data base; 2. an event-to-loss mapping capability; 3. an emergency infrastructure repair response algorithm; 4. a private commercial/industrial repair response algorithm; and 5. a residential reconstruction algorithm. Data and techniques available for developing these five components differ, and the need to fill in critical information and methodological gaps leads to the remaining recommendations of this section. The first component of the suggested microsimulation model, a regional database, should contain a fully geocoded inventory of structures and infrastructure capable of identifying commercial/industrial closures from specific structure and lifeline (roads, water, and electricity) losses. Critical documented aspects of each structure include: typical input-output linkages to the regional economy; potential substitutes from outside the regional economy for traditional regional input-output linkages; infrastructure critical and feasible for bringing employees to
Recommendation 4: A study to test regional economic model modifications for disaster loss analysis should be conducted. Such a study would utilize secondary regional data currently available on sales, employment, wages, and income following natural disasters.
This recommendation focuses on efficiently using currently available secondary data, a critical first round of work that logically precedes collection of new primary data for supporting such model-based approaches.
164
165
work; in the case of retailing and service establishments, infrastructure critical and feasible for bringing customers to other places of business; numbers of employees and wages of employee; and profit income in the region. Much of the data on firm location, employment, and wages are currently available from reports already required by the federal-state cooperative programme on unemployment insurance. Considerable study has also been done on modeling building and lifeline performance in natural disasters. The missing links are how lifeline losses and building losses determine closures. Kiremidjian et al. (1997) estimated the effects of water system loss on Palo Alto, California, for two scenario events. These studies illustrate the importance of lifeline availability for economic functionality, but there are no comprehensive models that systematically relate these phenomena. Similarly lacking is research on the role of building damage in determining indirect losses. Some survey data on lifeline resiliency have been collected. Several years ago, the Disaster Research Center (DRC) of the University of Delaware conducted an extensive survey of businesses in the Memphis region. Specific questions were asked regarding the degree of dependency on different lifeline services and the amount of time that each business could operate without full service. This information needs to be extended beyond lifelines and to other parts of the United States to better understand regional resiliency to natural disasters.
determining indirect losses are to be effective. Accurate estimation of indirect losses requires clear knowledge of the levels of direct damage and business resiliency. We now consider the remaining features of the suggested microsimulation model. The second module would ideally determine which commercial/industrial closures would occur due to direct damage to buildings, loss of lifelines to businesses, and loss of lifelines critical for transporting employees and/or customers. The model's third element would determine how long these losses of functionality occur. This depends on the timeline for infrastructure repair. The fourth part of the model characterizes private commercial/industrial repair response. Repair time is critical to implementing the ideal model's third and fourth modules (Chang et al., 1996; Shinozuka et al., 1997; Shinozuka et al., 1998). However, this parameter is one of the more uncertain parameters in the modeling process. There are many ways in which a damaged lifeline can be repaired. Thus, in the best cases outages may last only a few minutes or hours (Lopez et al., 1994); but in the worst, interruptions can last several months, as after the 1995 Kobe earthquake (Takada and Ueno, 1995). Experience teaches us that such losses are initially, primarily a function of restoration time, but then tend to increase exponentially as restoration time is extended. Similarly, there are very limited data on length of time to recover full use of a commercial/industrial building. The Applied Technology Council (1985) provides heuristic estimates used in NIBS (1997) and Kiremidjian et al. (1997). However, there are no formal simulation models of restoration that parallel simulation models of physical damage. Restoration depends not just on physical damage but also on the capacity of the construction industry and the ability to move needed materials and labour to the disaster area.
Recommendation 5: A range of businesses in different regions of the United States should be surveyed to determine their resiliency to: (1) physical building damage (including feasibility of short-term relocation); (2) loss of infrastructure and utilities (roads, bridges, electricity, water, gas), and; (3) loss of traditional suppliers and markets. Results should be verified by statistical methods (to examine consistency of results by nature of business and size of business) and engineering methods (to determine process-determined lifeline needs). Such a survey is critical if existing models of physical damages for
Recommendation 6: A formal restoration model that utilizes available technical and economic data and is consistent with observations from actual natural disasters should be developed. Development of such a model may well uncover additional data needs. These likely would relate to physical and
166
167
economic aspects of the construction industry and could be incorporated into questionnaires for existing surveys of construction firms. The second, third, and fourth modules of the suggested microsimulation model jointly determine a timeline of regional commercial/industrial closures (or cutbacks) that trigger indirect losses. Wage and profit income lost from closures are estimated from data in the regional database. Broader measurement of indirect losses must also include a fifth component, residential reconstruction. This module translates damage to residential structures into a reconstruction/rebuilding profile, which depends upon: (1) residential damage; (2) available funds for rebuilding; (3) any "Jacuzzi" effects (enhancing the original structure beyond reconstruction); and, (4) decisions to abandon totally destroyed structures and migrate from the region. Given income and reconstruction flows simulated in the microsimulation model, the modified regional impact model can be used to simulate multiplier or ripple effects. Given an actual disaster, the system can forecast indirect losses for purposes of planning regional aid. Equally important, it should be used in the context of a probability distribution of disasters to evaluate mitigation proposals and to improve the efficiency of emergency response efforts.
Poor knowledge of the resulting economic losses hinders implementation of effective disaster mitigation policies and emergency response programmes. Better loss estimates would benefit federal, state, and local governments, insurers, scientists and researchers, and private citizens (both as taxpayers and insurance purchasers). It is clear that data on economic losses of natural disasters to the nation are incomplete and spread widely across the public and private sectors. Information on both direct and indirect costs is lacking. If data on uninsured direct losses are limited, our understanding of indirect losses is even more incomplete. These indirect losses are clearly difficult to identify and measure. However, in large disasters they may be significant and, within the immediately affected regions, potentially greater than the direct losses due to physical destruction, especially in large disasters. Losses Versus Costs In generating a national indicator of disaster damage, the focus should be upon the losses resulting from disasters, rather than costs. Losses encompass a broader set of damages than costs. Losses include direct physical destruction to property, infrastructure, and crops, plus indirect losses that are the consequence of disasters, such as temporary unemployment and lost business. Costs typically refer only to cash payouts from insurers and governments. The term "losses," as defined above, better portrays the true economic impacts of disasters. Direct Losses One step toward producing more complete loss estimates would be to assign one agency of the federal government to compile a comprehensive data base identifying the direct costs of natural disasters, as well as the individuals and groups who bear these costs. These data should be collected for each natural disaster exceeding a given dollar loss threshold. The U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis appears to have the capabilities to compile such a database, with considerable input and assistance from FEMA and other relevant federal agencies. Whatever agency is selected should
Recommendation 7: Research should be conducted on linking a comprehensive indirect loss model to a probabilistic physical damage catastrophe model, for purposes of evaluating mitigation and improving the efficiency of emergency response programmes.
In sum, the recommendations outlined in this chapter suggest a mix of primary data collection, more intensive use of available secondary data, and development of new modeling techniques that will permit significant, cost-effective improvement in measurement and prediction of indirect losses.
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
This report has explained the gaps in our knowledge of natural disaster losses and why these gaps should be filled.
168
169
be given sufficient resources to accomplish this assignment. The recommended loss estimate database would be compiled from many sources, including organizations such as Property Claims Services and the Institute for Business and Home Safety (which compile data on paid insurance claims) and other federal, state, and local agencies. The assistance of relevant professional associations, such as the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, should be enlisted to obtain other relevant data. A synthesis report containing data on disaster losses should be published periodically, preferably annually. One way the federal government might make sure it receives at least the state and local data is by amending the Stafford Act, requiring the data to be submitted as a condition for future federal disaster aid. A related recommendation is for the federal Office of Management and Budget, with advice from FEMA, to develop annual, comprehensive estimates of the payouts for the direct losses (due directly physical damage) made by federal agencies. These data should be divided into at least four categories: 1. compensation payments to individuals and businesses (including subsidies on loans to help cover disasterrelated expenses); 2. response costs; 3. losses to government-owned infrastructure (including state and local costs that are reimbursed by the federal government); and, 4. payouts from federal disaster insurance programmes (with annual premiums shown separately). These data should be assembled for some historic period in order to provide information of trends of disaster losses and payouts. Such an effort is critical if the federal government and policymakers are to better plan for future disaster-related expenditures, including mitigation programmes and activities. The largest current gap in direct loss data involves uninsured losses borne by businesses and individuals. These data might be obtained through post-event sampling (in large disasters) and extrapolating these losses from other databases. Data from
loan applicants to the SBA's disaster relief programme or data from insurers like PCS would indicate the deductibles paid by insured businesses and individuals. Indirect Losses Indirect losses in natural disasters stem from the consequences of physical damage (direct losses). Physical damages in disasters typically initiate events that alter economic flows. Businesses may be disrupted after a disaster due to damaged infrastructure (power, water, transportation, communications), and many workers may be temporarily unemployed. These indirect losses have not been studied or measured as closely as direct losses, largely because they are notoriously difficult to identify and accurately measure. Due to the limited sources of indirect loss data, statistical models are often used to compile indirect loss estimates. Though these models may help address problems due to a lack of available data, they must become more reliable if they are to be used as guides in setting mitigation and other hazardrelated policies. If this is to occur, however, accurate, firsthand (primary) data on indirect losses must be available for model calibration and validation. The recommended data collection and coordination programme should thus also include surveys for the collection of detailed primary data on indirect economic losses from recent disasters (again, sufficient resources for this effort must be budgeted). Once a sufficiently reliable database of these indirect losses has been generated, the agency should continue to collect indirect loss data on large disasters-those with model estimates of greater than $10 billion in losses. While the indirect loss database is being constructed, efforts toward more effective uses of secondary data (data generated for purposes other than indirect loss estimation, such as unemployment insurance payouts) should be continued. We thus recommend that an assessment of methods for estimating indirect losses with secondary data be conducted. It is important to understand the timing of economic disruptions that trigger indirect losses in order to plan for
170
171
efficient emergency responses and to assess the costeffectiveness of alternate mitigation strategies. The committee recommends that a microsimulation model be developed to create a timeline of regional commercial and industrial closures. Other models that should be devised include a formal restoration model and a comprehensive indirect loss model. Moving Towards Better Knowledge of Disaster Losses The lack of accurate information on these losses is a barrier to more effective hazard mitigation. As a step toward improving mitigation programmes, efforts at centralizing these data and compiling better loss estimates must be strengthened. The federal government and private sector should combine their knowledge and data in providing better estimates of direct losses. The federal government must mount and back a significant data collection and research effort if better estimates of losses due to disasters are to be compiled, especially indirect losses. With a strong commitment, this could be accomplished within the next ten years. Until relatively accurate estimates are available, the true economic losses in natural disasters will remain poorly understood and the benefits of disaster mitigation activities only imprecisely evaluated. Environmental Impacts of Natural Disasters It is recognized that many significant nonmarket effects result from natural disasters, including environmental impacts. Though our committee had a keen interest in these topics, it became clear that these impacts-though often significant-did not fit easily with this study's main report and conclusions for the following reasons: (1) not all disasters result in significant ecosystem impacts (e.g., many earthquakes have but minor impacts on ecosystems); (2) some extreme events have positive impacts on ecosystems (e.g., floods can help rejuvenate floodplain vegetation and are important drivers of many ecological processes in floodplains); and, (3) these impacts are mainly nonmarket and are exceptionally difficult to quantify and/or monetize. Though there are emerging efforts in quantifying and monetizing ecosystem services (e.g., Costanza, 1997), they are in their infancy and are not yet widely accepted.
Though no specific recommendations regarding how environmental costs should be incorporated in loss estimates we provide here, we encourage policymakers in the relevant executive branch agencies to devote more attention and perhaps research to these issues. It is important in assessing environmental impacts to distinguish between impacts of disasters on the natural environment from those on the humanmade landscape environment. As mentioned, events that societies label as natural ''disasters" may also have beneficial ecological consequences. However, these benefits tend to only manifest themselves months or years after an extreme event (e.g., rejuvenation of a coniferous forest months and/or years after fires), or are often not readily apparent (e.g., recharging of groundwater stocks after a flood). These benefits to ecological systems are of course typically overshadowed by immediate, negative impacts on societies and structures; hence, the use of the term natural "disasters." Background Principles Three principles apply to the assessment of the costs and benefits of extreme geophysical events to the nation's ecological systems. First, although the more tangible, quantifiable damages of extreme events to infrastructure and economies may be difficult to calculate precisely, the costs to and benefits for natural ecosystems-even from such apparently straightforward impacts as numbers of fish killed or trees destroyed-are even less tangible and may be nearly impossible to quantify precisely. Moreover, even if the physical effects can be measured, the monetary values of those impacts cannot be stated with precision. Second, existing ecological systems have already adapted in many respects to the forces created by extreme events, such as floods or droughts. This process is lengthy, extending over thousands of years and involving the evolution of species and complex physical systems. The effects of geophysical extremes often are not undesirable. For example, major natural disturbances, such as fires or floods, rejuvenate old forests. The critical factors are the frequency, intensity, and extent of natural
172
173
disturbances. If disturbances occur too frequently and over large areas, then only pioneering, short-lived, and opportunistic species survive. If disturbances occur too infrequently, then slower-growing, superior competitors for light, water, and nutrients replace the pioneers. Maximum diversity is maintained by an intermediate level of disturbance, so that patches of pioneers and superior competitors alike occur within the landscape. All of this suggests that attempts to eliminate natural disturbances (rather than attempts to mitigate their adverse impacts) can be counterproductive and in some cases, as in the 1927 and 1993 floods on the Mississippi River and the Yellowstone fires in 1988, can make a disaster worse. Third, precisely because many disasters are indeed "natural," they often produce mixed outcomes for the environment: benefits to some parts of the natural system and losses to others. For example, some thinning of tree branches caused by high winds or ice accumulations from winter storms can allow for subsequent stronger tree development, and studies of the 1993 flood in the Midwest revealed major ecological benefits in the immersed floodplains. To the average human observer, floodplain forests appear to change scarcely at all from year to year, and therefore the death of trees during or after a major flood seems catastrophic. However, the diversity of vegetation on the floodplain is a product of disturbances, such as major fires, droughts, and floods that occur very infrequently in terms of a human life span. Without droughts, floodplains would not get dry enough to burn, and fire-intolerant species would crowd out the wet prairies and trees. Even the most extreme geophysical events are thus not necessarily damaging to ecosystems, and in some circumstances can bring great benefits. Furthermore, the effects take months and years after the disturbance to assess, suggesting that immediate ecological or environmental accountings are prone to error. Finally, as was outlined in the report, it is useful to assess the impacts of natural disasters by type of disasters. Because of their great spatial extent and longevity, major floods and
droughts generally create the greatest environmental impacts, whereas earthquakes, hurricanes, thunderstorms, and winter storms cover less territory and their effects on the ecosystem are less pervasive and long-lasting. Below, we briefly review some case studies to illustrate the diverse environmental impacts of different categories of disasters, and the difficulties in precisely quantifying and monetizing these impacts. Floods Major floods create myriad effects on river-floodplain ecosystems. During periods of low flow, typically in midsummer, the rivers occupy channels. During rainy seasons, rivers spill into their floodplains, recharging the surrounding wetlands, forests, and lakes with fresh supplies of water, nutrients, and sediments. During great floods, floodplains do not merely store water, but become part of the flowing river itself, conveying water slowly downstream through the forests and marshes. Plant and animal species have adapted over time to exploit, tolerate, or escape seasonal floodpulses and exceptional great floods. The combination of the flood-adapted animals and plants, the seasonal flows and great floods, the river and its channels, and the complex patchwork of floodplain habitats constitute the dynamic and phenomenally productive river-floodplain ecosystem. Large river-floodplain ecosystems provide valuable hydrological and ecological services and functions, such as flood storage and conveyance; the maintenance of biodiversity; retention, recycling, and conversion of potentially polluting nutrients into useful biomass; production of fish, wildlife, and forests; and the provisions of corridors for migratory fish and wildlife. Annual floodpulses help regulate and maintain these ecosystems by promoting exchanges of water, sediment, nutrients, and organisms between the rivers and their floodplains. Moreover, infrequent great floods and droughts help maintain habitat and species diversity (Sparks, 1996). Flood of 1993. Though the record flood of 1993 in the Upper Midwest was an economic disaster, it was a boon to many plants and animals that lived in and along the Missouri and Upper Mississippi Rivers. Even the few species that appear to
174
175
have been harmed by the flood, such as some trees, may benefit in the long term. Any harm that did occur may have been more the result of human factors rather than the flood itself, including failure of human-made levees, excessive loading of rivers and the Gulf of Mexico with herbicides and agricultural fertilizers, widespread dispersal of introduced pests, and the excessive drawdown of the Mississippi River after the flood. It is not surprising that the flood of 1993 had both positive and negative effects on the river-floodplain ecosystems. Many mobile organisms have adapted to exploit such seasonal floods. For example, the flood benefited fish that spawned on the inundated floodplain, and wading birds in turn exploited the huge crop of young fish. In contrast, long-lived, stationary organisms, such as trees, were severely stressed or died as a result of the exceptionally long period of inundation. And yet the outcome for trees was not all bad. Many seedlings cannot germinate or grow in the shade of mature trees, so old forests were rejuvenated when mature trees died because of the 1993 flood. Every component of the river-floodplain ecosystem, from the bottom to the top of the food chain, responded to the exceptional flood of 1993. At the shallow margins of the flood, nutrients were apparently released from newly flooded soils, stimulating phytoplankton. Aquatic insects likewise concentrated in the shallow water, perhaps consuming either the plankton or the remains of flooded terrestrial vegetation. Submergent aquatic plants grew in areas where the flood did not persist too long so they could reach sunlight. Where the flood rose higher and lasted longer, submersed aquatic plants virtually disappeared. About 52 species of fishes, representing 15 families, spawned on the floodplain during the flood (Maher, 1995). The abundant juvenile fish became food for larger fish and fish-eating birds, such as herons and egrets. The flood also took a heavy toll on trees, the longest-living organisms in the floodplain. The 1993 flood caused a serious economic and environmental pest, the zebra mussel, to wash from the Upper Illinois River downstream into the lower Illinois and the Mississippi. In the process, zebra mussel larvae were carried far back into the floodplain and upstream into tributaries that were backed up by the mainstream rivers. Another potential
pest was introduced when a fish farm on a tributary of the Mississippi flooded and Asian black carp escaped. The carp is able to consume endangered native mussels and clams and competes with the native fish and ducks that already consume zebra mussels. The flood moved tremendous amounts of water to the Gulf of Mexico. Through erosion and flooding of agricultural soils throughout the Midwest, the floodwaters picked up vast quantities of various chemicals, including some from flooded industries along the rivers. Substantial quantities of these agricultural (and other) chemicals were transported into the streams and rivers, either as dissolved matter or in suspension, and into the floodplains. This polluted water infiltrated floodplains and contaminated ground water aquifers. There was an immense discharge of freshwater to the Gulf of Mexico during the summer of 1993. The delivery of this water and its dissolved and suspended materials affected the ecosystem of the Gulf of Mexico. Discharges of herbicides and nitrates to the Gulf of Mexico were substantially higher in 1993 than in prior years, stimulating plankton blooms. When the plankton died and sank, the decaying organic matter used up oxygen in the bottom layer of water, lowering oxygen levels over an area of 6,000 square miles (the so-called "dead zone") and threatening valuable fisheries. The total amount of atrazine delivered to the Gulf of Mexico by the Mississippi River from April to August 1993 was 1.2 million pounds, up about 25 percent from loads delivered during 1992. One million tons of nitrate-nitrogen were discharged to the Gulf of Mexico from April to August 1993, a value 37 percent larger than loads for 1992 (Goolsby et al., 1993). In summary, the flood of 1993 exacerbated two preexisting environmental problems related to human activity. First, it facilitated the spread of a serious economic and environmental pest, the European zebra mussel, that accidentally had previously been introduced to the St. Lawrence-Great Lakes drainage by transoceanic ships (and facilitated other introduced pests, such as the Asian tiger mosquito). Second, nutrient loading of the Gulf of Mexico was substantially increased by the flood,
176
177
and the summer "dead zone" in the Gulf consequently expanded, with potential detrimental impacts on the largest fishery in the United States. At the same time, the 1993 flood also vividly demonstrates the complexity and uncertainty over the range of positive and negative impacts upon floodplain ecosystems, as well as the overwhelming task of trying to distill precise figures for the full costs and benefits of an extreme geophysical event. Droughts Unlike floods, droughts generally damage ecological systems and yield few offsetting benefits. In fact, the most subtle and enduring impacts of droughts occur in the environment. The cumulative stress on wetlands, wildlife, forests, ground water, and soils cannot be measured accurately, and many effects occur slowly and over a period of years, making them extremely difficult to quantify. The problems generated by droughts begin with changes in the quantity and quality of water available in the hydrologic system. Drought damages both plant and animal species by depriving them of food and water, increasing their susceptibility to disease, and increasing their vulnerability to predation. As with floods, droughts produce a loss of biodiversity, and often increase erosion of dried soils when rain eventually comes. Droughts also degrade water quality, shifting salt concentration, pH levels and dissolved oxygen, while increasing water temperatures. Even air quality is diminished because of increased dust and pollutants. Droughts also lead to more wildfires, while adversely changing salinity levels in coastal estuaries and reducing the flushing of pollutants. Drought of 1988. The best documentation of environmental damages from a drought came from studies of the 1988 drought, which affected large portions of the United States. This event caused enormous reductions in streamflows in two major drought-affected regions. Plans to divert additional water from the Great Lakes to enhance the record low flows of the Upper Mississippi River system were halted by environmental concerns over the potential impacts of lowered water levels on the lakes (Changnon, 1989).
Many streams were unable to handle industrial discharges and agricultural pollution, greatly limiting water quality and the use of water. Water supplies dropped to seriously low levels in the southeast United States, where many uses of river waters, including hydropower generation and navigation on major rivers, had to be curtailed. Saltwater intrusion up the Mississippi River beyond New Orleans was so severe that underwater sills were built to halt the intrusion. The 1988 drought led to 68,000 wildfires that burned 5.1 million acres of federal forestland. Fire-fighting costs alone amounted to $300 million. The best-known fires were those in Yellowstone National Park, which captured national attention. The dry conditions in areas adjacent to the fires greatly reduced the number of tree seedlings, with mortality of 40 percent of the trees planted in the 10 years prior to 1988, including 150 million pine seedlings. The drought led to increased insect attacks on commercial forests, and 5.7 billion board feet of lumber were lost because of pine bark beetles. The total loss to U.S. forests was estimated at $5 billion (Riebsame et al., 1991). The 1988 drought also caused sizable but unmeasured losses of fish, waterfowl, and wildlife. High water temperatures in bays along the East Coast caused an increase in oyster diseases, resulting in a 1988 harvest of 375 million bushels, the lowest on record for Chesapeake Bay (Avery, 1988; Changnon et al., 1996). Finally, the high temperatures associated with the 1988 drought had profound effects on human health. Several thousands of deaths were attributed directly or indirectly related to the high temperatures. Many of these deaths occurred in the large urban areas of the central and eastern United States. Municipal governments responded by establishing cooling centres. Not surprisingly, a comprehensive study of the environmental impacts of the 1988 drought concluded that there were "no winners" in the ecosystems (Riebsame et al., 1991). Hurricanes and Tropical Storms Hurricanes and tropical storms create environmental damages within paths that vary from 50 to 150 miles in width. The environmental consequences largely consist of damages to
178
179
trees and underbrush in the storm path. At the same time, the long-term ecosystem damages of these storms are uncertain. To be sure, during coastal storms in particular there is often significant erosion of shores and beaches. In the long run, however, nature generally has adapted to these events, so the extent of negative impacts of these events is not clear. Severe Local Storms Severe local thunderstorms-such as a major tornado striking Wichita or a thunderstorm producing large hailstorms in Dallasare often labelled as natural disasters due to the attendant looses of life and economic losses, but in general these events are localized. They are not events that create serious, largescale damages to the natural ecosystem. Nonetheless, it is possible that the cumulative environmental impacts of severe storms over a period as short as a year can be significant. Broad areas can suffer from numerous forest fires triggered by cloudto-ground lightning. High winds and hail cause localized damages to plants and forests, although the total losses are considered to be relatively minor on a regional or national scale. Heavy rains that lead to flash floods also can be environmentally damaging, at least locally. They increase soil erosion rates, and if they occur in mountainous areas the resulting flood can create massive damages to ecosystems in narrow mountain valleys. Earthquakes Although the dominant losses from earthquakes are to structures and potentially to humans, these events can also result in adverse environmental consequences. Examples include flora and fauna damaged by the shocks and shifts in land surfaces, as well as alterations in local hydrologic systems. For example, the famed New Madrid earthquake in the central United States in the 19th century changed the course of the Mississippi River and created a cutoff lake. In the most affected areas, trees, shrubs, land cover, and habitats can also be destroyed. There are currently no estimates of the environmental or ecosystem losses from earthquakes (although the national, long-term impact is probably not great).
High Winds Strong and persistent synoptic scale (nonstorm) high winds can sweep over large areas and cause damage to trees and plants. High winds can also help promote large-scale fires, typically in dry western areas. Recent wind-driven fire catastrophes in California accounted for insured property losses of $1.5 billion in October 1992, rated as the third largest fire loss in the nation's history (III, 1993). Major brushfires enhanced by strong winds occurred in California in October 1993 and again in November 1993, together causing $815 million in insured property losses (III, 1995). These huge, wind-driven fires consumed all underbrush, ground cover, and trees over hundreds of square miles, but there is no known report documenting the value of these losses to the natural or landscape environments. High winds and waves caused by severe extratropical cyclones damage beaches and shoreline ecosystems. This is a problem mainly along the East Coast when strong "Nor'easters" strike along shores ranging from 500 to 1,000 miles in length and in the Great Lakes, where winter storms create waves that severely erode beaches. However, these shoreline effects also can be viewed as an inherent part of nature to which coastal ecosystems have adapted. Summary Although natural disasters are by definition undesirable for humans, they often carry several ecological benefits. Floods are a prime example of the mixed economic and environmental effects. At the other extreme, droughts not only produce economic damage, but virtually all of their environmental impacts are also undesirable. There are only limited quantitative data of the environmental costs of natural disasters. Relatively little effort by the private sector, academics and scientists, or the government has gone into this activity. Nonetheless, such studies as have been conducted reveal that numerous environmental problems caused by natural disasters often have significant consequences for ecosystems, and eventually people, societies, and economies. Thus, even though these environmental impacts may not readily translate into monetized losses (or gains) their
180
181
importance strongly suggests they should be considered by governments, academia, and the private sector in the study and design of hazard mitigation and land use policies.
COPING WITH DISASTERS THROUGH EFFECTIVE INTERORGANIZATIONAL NETWORKS
With very low advanced readiness on the part of civil administration, the disaster of January 26, 2001 was a moment of reckoning for administration, civil society and international community. If we appear to be critical of ourselves in this narrative, it is only to dispense with niceties and sharpen the lessons that we could learn from this experience. We would also like to highlight some of the positive steps taken by various actors, which could be incorporated, in the future strategies. But the overall tone is likely to be very critical and this should not retract us from the admirable and extremely enthusiastic response from various actors in coping with the disaster. We do regret that we have not learnt many lessons even now. In part one of the chapter we describe the insights from the coping strategies adopted by various administrative agencies and the issues arising therefrom. The issues for the research are identified in part two. Insights from the Coping Strategies While army and air force rose to the occasion immediately, the civil administration took time. Irony can be imagined from the fact that Swiss rescue team was here at the airport with sniffer dogs and other relief equipments within 24 hours but our authorities could not clear the baggage for many more hours. There is no justification for not having a drill in each crucial infrastructural office to devise immediate course of action with sole purpose of saving lives, ensuring communication, security of vital installations and coordination of the support systems. Such a drill had apparently never taken place. We did not have even a list of cranes or other equipments with clear arrangements to move them at short notice to deal with huge concrete slabs, which had fallen from the damaged buildings. Even the hand tools including hammers were not around. People were trying to rescue the buried injured people manually
to begin with, before fire brigade department could cope with so many calls from so many directions. The control room set up by the municipal corporation slowly started coordinating with army and air force once the scale of disaster in Kutchh became apparent. The VIP visits were a great nuisance because most leaders in our country have not learnt to be humble, practical and professional at such moments. They somehow could not insist on doing away with protocol and providing support rather than withdrawing it from more deserving segments of society. Even the telephone numbers of crucial relief organs were not available at one place. There were some very responsible young officers who realize the enormity of the problem, developed immediate rapport with the defense officials and started cutting the red tape taking far more responsibility than their rank permitted. These people were saving the day. There was not a single mobile operation theatre though army relief camp at Anjar and a few other places was activated immediately. The transportation was another source of major concern with one bridge to Kutchh damaged and the other under heavy strain without any discipline about the priority for vehicles carrying life saving drugs or equipments. Every vehicle was in the same queue. The helicopters that manage traffic flow during the Republic Day Parade could have been moved to manage the transportation along the life line road to Kutchhh. Vehicles were stranded for four-five hours and sometime more. The disaster tourists made the matter worse. The railways tried to move heavy equipments but for some reason, the flow of wagons to and from the source points to the destination was not as expeditious as was necessary. Perhaps the civic administration did not give them the requisite information. a. Communication : Soon after the earthquake, there was a shock and immediate eruption of civil society initiatives to do whatever they could do. Some groups started collecting information to find out what was the scale of damage so that they could identify the role for themselves. The media took note of the crisis and flashed it around the world. However, the authorities were
182
183
informed after a lag of few hours because of snag in the lines of communication between he IMD Chief and Prime Minister who was at the Republic Day Parade. These were crucial two hours, which could have helped in shaping the quality and quantity of immediate relief. As we will notice later, the communication bottlenecks were the most crucial in preventing many more lives being saved. b. Telecommunication: The lines of communication were disturbed in Kutchh causing tremendous stress on the relief agencies. We tried to mobilize ham radio operators from around the country and learnt later that they were at least 500 such operators within Gujarat. The list of these people is available today at www.sristi.org/ dmis.html, a disaster management information system site put together by SRISTI(Society for Research and Initiatives for Sustainable Technologies and Institutions) as a voluntary contribution. But, on that day, such information was not available. Some volunteers had immediately set up the facility at Gandhinagar and later in Kutchh to improve communications. The Telecom department tried to activate the telephone service fast including some of the cellular service operators but this remained a major bottleneck for the first week or so. c. Transport: The transportation arrangements for Kutchh were in disarray and the large number of vehicles coming with relief materials from different states did not know where to go and who to contact. As mentioned earlier, the regulation of traffic, prioritization of movement, stoppage of unnecessary private vehicles (even if wellintentioned) and ensuring close monitoring were necessary. We are not sure that such a thing would happen if disaster of that scale were to occur again. We do not need to give evidence of lack of preparedness even today. Railways: Lot of relief material and people were coming through railways who were providing help to the extent possible. However, special warehouses, information
booth to guide volunteers and direct materials were missing. Similarly, movement of heavy machinery as well as concrete cutters and other such equipments was hampered in the first few days. We do not have adequate information and therefore are unable to appreciate fully the constraints under which they had to work. However, a system is needed to immediately organize the movement of materials needed for urgent relief in coordination with the civic administration. d. GIS based Communication Network : For routing various supplies to the critical locations and ensuring that no discrimination takes place, no needy village or location is left out and prioritization is need based rather than influence based, GIS linked inventory and logistics support system should be in place. We should know what alternative routes exist to go to any major coordination center in case the main routes are damaged. It should also be possible to track supplies to various locations and get feedback from the users on the same. In Kutchh, perhaps because of security concerns, despite our best efforts, we could not get the GIS maps linked with supply chain software that our students and faculty developed for Relief Commissioner in Bhuj. e. Logistics (transportation, warehouse, supply chain management software and hardware, inventory management systems, sourcing database) : January end is a cold period and tents and woolens were needed urgently. The contact information of different tent suppliers was not easily available. The supplier at Kumbha Mela when contacted was not willing to help because of some pending bills of past. International supplies of course were coming. Despite the fact that air force station in Bhuj had suffered heavy causalities, they were on the job day and night. But, the need of their families were not attended to as promptly as should have been the case, given the fact that the officers and soldiers were giving priority to their service to the society rather than the need of their families. Our worry is that
184
185
even after year and a half of the recent disaster, our preparedness has not improved a great deal in this regard as well. f. Warehouses: One of the major problems that many voluntary organizations as well as government faced was proper warehousing facilities for rescue and relief materials. Medicines were lying under sun in open in Bhuj. We had converted a big hall in our campus to provide support to citizen's initiative-a conglomerate of about 200 NGOs. However, we also did not have facilities for proper storage of medicines. g. Monitoring of Supplies: After several days, two check posts were set up on the two main routes to Kutchh to help direct the supplies coming from unknown places. However, these check posts did not receive indents from various locations so as to guide the trucks to right destinations. The result was that too much was reaching at some locations while nothing much was reached at other locations. h. Medical Help: The doctors from Ahmedabad and other locations had moved immediately to set up camps in the affected regions but sourcing of supplies were becoming a constraint. In the absence of sterilized conditions, in many places first aid was provided by doctors not trained in orthopedic assistance. We recall a moment when oxygen cylinders were required and by the time we could locate and arrange them, it was too late. The ability of civil society network as well as public institutions to pool their inventories was very limited. There were some NGOs who were very keen to maintain their own control over distribution of resources, even if it meant inefficiency in ensuring right medical help to the needy people. Large number of companies manufacturing drugs were very much willing to provide medicine at short notice besides the devises required for fractures, bandages, etc. Christian Medical College, Ludhiana and their associates were very helpful to bring mobile medical units to provide high quality service.
Temporary x-ray facilities were limited in the first few days. The nurses were particularly in short supply though doctors were abundantly available. i. Disaster Management Information Database: The details of the online DMIS developed by SRISTI and IIMACORE are available in annexure one and two. It may suffice to state here that on 26 January 2002, around the time when it was launched, we felt that a great deal had not still been learnt. This workshop would go a long way if it could bring in a sense of urgency in giving a wake up call to our unusually lethargic bureaucratic system. The basic information on communication, health, transport, warehouse, machinery, sanitation, drinking water, electrical systems, roads and bridges, etc., with clearly identified nodal points responsible for emergency relief must be available all over the country on the web as well as in printed form in public libraries. We should also have a list of volunteers who would be willing to move at a short notice within their locality, district, state or country to provide help in various regard. The offer of help in terms of infrastructure such as warehouse, transportation, medical equipments, cranes, concrete cutters, etc., can also be registered in such databases. Every six months, a confirmation letter/mail ought to go to everybody who has volunteered to revalidate their offer and also enable them to modify their offer. The support from the civil society is most invaluable. At this moment, such a database has not been built anywhere in the country except for a small initiative at SRISTI. The advertisements will have to be issued and public media will have to be mobilized for seeking volunteers for DMIS. Our goal should be to reduce level of deaths in such emergencies from 20000 to may be two or three. This is what the current level is in many disaster prone developed countries. The DMIS had focused on developing database, logistic support, identifying technological needs, self-reliance at community level, communication infrastructure, emergency preparedness and forecasting (see Annexure two).
186
187
LESSONS LEARNT RESEARCH
AND
ISSUES
FOR
FURTHER
a. The first lessons that we have to learn with great regret is that we don't seem to learn easily. The experience of Latur had not taught us much. The problem is not with the intention of policy makers and administrative leaders but with the total lack of concern for institutionalizing learning pedagogies. For instance, we requested GSDMA (Gujarat State Disaster Management Agency) and UNDP to record the experience of NGO workers and officials about the problems they faced in first few days. But, it could not be done. Not only that, most of the experience notes prepared afterwards dealt more with what had been done rather than with what could not be done. It is useful to learn from best practices, on the ground innovations, and sporadic initiatives that people took to solve the problems. In one case, there was a serious situation because of the way concrete slabs had fallen. A person well-connected politically had his mother trapped inside, but nobody had the courage to go in and rescue the lady because of the precarious nature of the building. Despite lot of throwing around of weight, nothing was happening. Finally, a young officer offered to go in to locate the lady's condition and assess the strategy to bring her out. Only after that other people would venture to help. Such events are not unusual but a mechanism to record such initiatives and explore better technologies to assess the strength of the structures might reduce the reliance on individual valor. CSIR under the leadership of Dr.R.A.Mashelkar had offered immediate help of all his labs for whatever assistance we needed. Within 24 hours, structural engineers were mobilized from all over the country to assist local authorities in assessing which buildings to completely pull down and which ones to be left for repairs. Likewise, many other labs helped by sending ready to eat food mixtures and providing assistance in other matters. How to mobilize such help in disasters should be institutionalized and
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.
g.
a database of such experts whether from institutions or from civil society, as suggested in DMIS would come handy on such occasions. The role of NGOs such as Kutch Nav Nirman Abhiyan, Citizen's Initiative, Gantar, Gram Swarajya Sangh, etc., was very praiseworthy. It is useful to incorporate such organizations in the disaster management preparedness drill. The transaction costs of such organizations are much lesser and the response time is much faster. A network of such organizations should be part of the National Disaster Management Network. Even today we are not prepared much better to deal with disasters than we were year and a half ago. The DMIS may be operationalized to include equipments and all other resources from private, public and NGO sectors with the contact information for emergency use. Mobile operation theatres, x-ray machines and other such facilities should be available in a manner that these can be readily mobilized at the site of disaster. The communication infrastructure, particularly ham radio operators, satellite phones, and internet connections are very weak in many rural areas. The building of ham radio network (mobile as well as stationery) should be a priority. The database of existing ham radio operators can also be enriched at DMIS platform or any other such platforms. The use of radio and television (more of the former) could be very effective. Despite our suggestions, even the instructions for constructing earthquake proof houses were not broadcast adequately so long and the results are obvious. The transportation bottlenecks are to be expected. Need for air regulation of surface transport could not be organized despite our appeals. It is surprising that such a simple thing should be so difficult to organize. The army and the air force played pivotal role in saving lives, rescue injured, provide medical assistance, organize logistics, and boost the morale of society in distress. It should be possible to build similar motivational levels among the members of civil society trained for the
188
Disaster Management Information System
189
purpose. May be a National Disaster Management Corps could be developed or be evolved through NCC /Home Guard Network. The coordination between defense and civil administration was also sometimes strained because of weak administrative preparedness. Line of command in such matters could be made more precise and functional. h. There is no substitute to communities being prepared to deal with disasters on their own through self-defense mechanisms. WE need to develop manuals, FAQs and other self help material for the purpose. Sristi.org/ DMIS.html does provide some links to such information available internationally but we need to develop such material for our own cultural contexts. i. State administration has to be geared to deal with such disasters all over the country. They have the authority and also the information such as revenue maps, transport networks, communication infrastructure and above all the authority to make things happen. Given the scale of disaster, unlike the movement of defense forces, state administration faced difficulties in putting revenue machinery in place in the affected region quickly. We have to increase the capacity of state administration as well. There are several more lessons for building interorganisational networks to cope with disasters that have not been mentioned here. Suffice to state that a learning network requires periodic exchanges and willingness to recognize one's own limits and appreciate strength of others. This also requires a collaborative attitude. Thanks to the positive outlook in Gujarat, cooperation was much easy to organize. I remember a remark of a student of NID from Orissa. She asked as to why when there was a super cyclone in her state, the response of Central Government, civil society and international community was not that good or efficient. Perhaps the web of commercial network Gujarat has spawned all over the country and the world contributed to a much wider response. The inefficiency in relief and rehabilitation to the extent still existing thus becomes less excusable.
5
DISASTER MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEM
Introduction Natural disasters impart lessons at a very high cost of life and property. But if those lessons do not lead to learning and knowledge generation then it is a very heavy cost to bear. This lack of learning from the past hurts most at the recurrence of disasters. The earthquake in Gujarat (26th January 2001, an earthquake of 7.9 magnitude on Richter scale struck Gujarat, India, with its epicentre in Kutch, causing destruction of three towns and death of more than 20,000 people) and the subsequent chaos was an indicator of how crucial disaster planning is to manage relief and rehabilitation during disasters. SRISTI participated in the relief and rehabilitation work in Kutch. But the relief work suffered immensely due to lack of information and proper planning. When we tried to get answers to important questions that were cropping up-for instance, whether there exists a database on the distribution of available resources and expertise with individuals, institutions and corporations-all we got in response was a blank. This pointed to the urgent necessity of building a system for disaster mitigation and for documenting experiences of individuals and organisations, which might act as a knowledge resource and help in better coordination in case of future disasters. The Disaster Management Information System Thus, SRISTI initiated an effort to build a "Disaster Management Information System". Through this initiative we
190
191
are trying to develop a database-driven information system for Disaster Management Authorities (DMA) in various states, NGOs and other organisations. We appealed to NGOs, relief workers, DMAs and individuals to share their experiences and volunteer services and resources to the online database maintained at our website. The database currently contains more than a thousand volunteers who have offered to volunteer their services and resources in time of emergency. About 700 organisations and institutions are also listed on the site, besides other resources and web links. The DMIS is a wholly voluntary activity run with contributions in terms of time and services by SRISTI volunteers, NGOs and above all civil society institutions across the world. All the information shared with us is accessible to all, except where the volunteer has chosen to limit accessibility only to the relevant authorities. SRISTI focused on developing a template for disaster management comprising: (a) Database: on various resources, skills, and services required for relief at times of emergencies on short notice. This database would have information on resources such as safety equipment, oxygen cylinders, transport, medicines, earthmovers and various other equipment, their location, quantity, owner organisation etc, and communication information of experts, doctors, engineers and other people required to deal with emergencies. (b) Logistics: creating systems for logistics, inventory control mechanisms, network support, information access with appropriate usage of technology. These systems could be integrated with GIS (Geographical Information System) and could be made accessible on Kiosks, Wide Area Networks as well as on the Internet. GIS maps would also help better routing of supplies and relief material right up to a village. (c) Technological Needs: Equipment and accessories required, and the know-how for it, should be accessible during an emergency. Technical needs could be anything
from fire fighting, debris removal, rescue, maintaining communications etc. While developing an effective disaster mitigation strategy, a whole range of technical questions, regarding buildings, cutting concrete slabs, fire fighting, rescue and relief, have to be answered. Technical know-how, equipment and expertise requirement need to be identified and the logistics of making it accessible need to developed. (d) Self Reliance: Communities should prepare their own disaster mitigation plan and warning systems. Drills need to be organised to keep communities prepared for dealing with emergency situations. Each individual asking oneself how prepared he or she is in the event of a disaster is a step towards getting ready to meet eventualities, at the individual, family and community levels. Lesser damage has taken place in situations where communities came together to help each other. Therefore the lessons that communities can impart about self-help need to be put together. Communities need to themselves identify people who could coordinate relief. In short, self-reliance is the key. (e) Communication Infrastructure: Coordination is crucial for effective relief. An effective communication infrastructure, which has layered communication systems, such that not everything collapses simultaneously, needs to be in place. Communication failures may lead to severe problems in coordinating relief activities while effective communication could save many lives. When the conventional communication infrastructure fails, wireless communication systems such as ham radios may be helpful in setting up helplines. Hence it is necessary while evolving an effective communication strategy to put in place systems and support networks which would continue to work if and when the principal network goes down. We would also have to create an information dissemination system and develop mechanisms for capacity building in the community to maintain such systems, which could have
192
193
more of human interface than technology, such as community notice boards. (f) Emergency Preparedness: Information for emergency preparedness and cautions should be accessible to the local community. Manuals related to emergency preparedness of possible disasters identified for a region need to be prepared and made available to the local community. Drills need to be organised to keep society prepared for dealing with emergencies. Such drills are also required for DMAs (Disaster Management Authorities) and emergency response units of hospitals, medical institutions, the Police, the Army, public transport units etc. (g) Forecasting: Accurate forecasting of natural disasters is not possible but identification and awareness of calamityprone areas is. Wherever possible, disasters, which can be anticipated over time or space, need to be looked into. National forecasting and Early Warning Systems (EWS) should be developed and information on disasters should be accessible to people on public/ mass communication media from time to time. Channels need to be built to make this information available to remotely located communities as well.
The Solution The DMIS is trying to build resources and create an information and knowledge bank for individuals, professionals, researchers, organisations, Disaster Management Authorities, institutions throughout the world. Some of the listed resources and services are: Volunteers databank (Services & Resources) Search Databases Volunteering services & resources online Experiences databank, experiences shared by individuals and organisations on disaster mitigation, relief and rehabilitation Read Experiences of disaster relief & rehabilitation Share your experiences online
Resources: Databases (Earthquake, Cyclone, Floods, Drought) Web Links (Education, training, projects, health, software) Disaster Management Authorities in India Organisations for Disaster Management in the world International Networking of Relief Support Organisations United Nations Organisations International Donor Organisations for disaster relief & rehabilitation Asian & Regional Organisations National Organisations of countries for disaster relief & rehabilitation Organisations involved in disaster relief & rehabilitation in Gujarat Papers & Publications (Papers, Journals, Books, Reports, other articles) Events & News on Disasters Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness (News, Workshops, Conferences, Meetings, Seminars) DMIS mailing list DMIS discussion forum Disaster mitigation and emergency preparedness in the event of disasters (earthquakes, cyclones, floods, drought, fires, volcanoes, landslides). What to do and tips for trauma management Disaster management tool kit, to face emergencies Disaster forecasting and warning (earthquakes, cyclones, floods, drought, others)
DISASTER RECOVERY AND BUSINESS CONTINUITY AUDITING
Disaster recovery and business continuity refers to an organization's ability to recover from a disaster and/or unexpected event and resume or continue operations.
194
195
Organizations should have a plan in place (usually referred to as a "Disaster Recovery Plan", or "Business Continuity Plan") that outlines how this will be accomplished. The key to successful disaster recovery is to have a plan (emergency plan, disaster recovery plan, continuity plan) well before disaster ever strikes. When conducting an audit of a disaster recovery plan several factors should be considered. These are described below. Written Disaster Recovery Plan with Continual Updating To be effective the plan must be written, must be understandable, and must be accessible to those who need it when they need it. Because of the constant changes that occur in the modern business environment, a plan should be updated frequently to deal with new and existing threats as they develop. The auditor needs to determine if procedures stated in the plan to achieve these ends are actually used in practice. This can be accomplished through: Direct observation of procedures Examination of the disaster recovery plan Inquiries of personnel Testing of processes for reasonableness and validity Designated Hot Site or Cold Site A hot/cold site is a location that an organization can move to after a disaster if the current facility is unusable. The difference between the two is that a hot site is fully equipped to resume operations while a cold site does not have that capability. There is also what is referred to as a warm site which has the capability to resume some, but not all operations. The decision a company makes when determining what type of site to establish depends on a cost-benefit analysis and the needs of the individual organization. The plan should also spell out how relocation to a new facility is to be conducted. A company should have occasional tests and conduct trials to verify the viability and effectiveness of the plan and to determine if any deficiencies exist and how they can be dealt with. An audit of a company Disaster Recovery Plan should primarily
look into the probability that operations of the organization can be sustained at the level that is assumed in the plan, as well as the ability of the entity to actually establish operations at the site. The auditor should: Examine and test the procedures involved Conduct outside research relating to Disaster recovery Determine reasonable standards relating to implementation Tour, examine, and research the outside facility. Ability to Recover Data and Systems The continual backing up of data and systems can help minimize the impact of threats. Even so, the plan should also include information on how best to recover any data that has not been copied. Controls and protections should be in place to ensure that data is not damaged, altered, or destroyed during this process. Information technology experts and procedures need to be identified that can accomplish this endeavor. Vendor manuals can also assist in determining how best to proceed. Processes for Frequent Backup of Systems and Data The auditor should determine if these processes are effective and are actually being implemented by personnel. This can be accomplished through: Direct observation of the processes Analyzing and researching the equipment used Conducting computer assisted audit techniques and tests Examination of paper and paperless records Tests and Drills of Disaster Procedures Practice drills should be conducted periodically to determine how effective the plan is and to determine what changes may be necessary. The auditor's primary concern here is verifying that these drills are being conducted properly and that problems uncovered during these drills are addressed and procedures
196
197
designed to deal with these potential deficiencies are implemented and tested to determine their effectiveness. Data and System Backups Stored Offsite The auditor can verify this through paper and paperless documentation and actual physical observation. Testing of the backups and procedures should be done to confirm data integrity and effective processes. The security of the storage site also needs to be confirmed. Appointed Disaster Recovery Committee and Chairperson The entity needs to appoint individuals responsible for designing and implementing the plan when needed. Generally, this consists of a team headed by a project manager, with a deputy manager who has the capability to take over the responsibilities if needed. The qualities needed for this position vary depending upon the organization. The qualities of the project manager generally include: Good leadership abilities Strong knowledge of company business Strong knowledge of management processes Experience and knowledge in Information technology and security Good project management skills Other members of the team need to have a clear understanding and ability to perform the requisite procedures. An auditor needs to examine and assess the project and deputy project manager's training, experience, and abilities as well as to analyze the capabilities of the team members to complete assigned tasks and that more than one individual is trained and capable of doing a particular function. Tests and inquiries of personnel can help achieve this objective. Visibly Listed Emergency Telephone Numbers The auditor can verify through direct observation that emergency telephone numbers are listed and easily accessible in the event of a disaster.
Insurance The auditor should determine the adequacy of the company's insurance coverage (particularly property and casualty insurance) through a review of the company's insurance policies and other research. Among the items that the auditor needs to verify are: the scope of the policy (including any stated exclusions), that the amount of coverage is sufficient to cover the organization's needs, and that the policy is current and in force. The auditor should also ascertain, through a review of the ratings assigned by independent rating agencies, that the insurance company or companies providing the coverage have the financial viability to cover the losses in the event of a disaster. Procedures Allowing Effective Communication Management and the recovery team should have Disaster Recovery Procedures] which allow for effective communication. This can be accomplished by making sure contact information is easily accessible and drills conducted test communication abilities. Procedures should include nontechnological as well as technological methodologies in case of power or system failures. Communications between the organization and outside individuals and organizations also need to be taken into account when designing the plan. Procedures to test this communication ability generally mirror those of the organization itself. The auditor should evaluate these procedures and assumptions to determine if they are reasonable and likely to be effective. An auditor evaluation can be accomplished through: Testing of procedures An inquiry of all employees Comparisons to other company plans and industry standards Examination of company manuals and other written procedures
198
199
Updated System Confirmation
and
Operation
Documentation
Mission Statement This should clearly identify what the purpose and goals of the Disaster Recovery Plan are. The mission statement can also help the auditor obtain a better understanding of the organization's environment. An auditor should examine this to determine what the objectives, priorities, and goals of the plan are: Both Manual and Automated Procedures in Place Procedures in place to accomplish the needed objectives should take into account the possibility of power failures or other situations in which technology cannot be utilized. The plan should indicate what procedures to be used in this situation and should also include information on storage of flashlights and candles, as well as additional safety procedures in case of gas leaks, fires or other phenomena. Trial runs should be conducted to test the procedures' effectiveness and viability. The auditor should: Examine and test procedures for reasonableness Make inquiries on personnel Conduct outside research Contractual companies Agreements with External Agencies/
Adequate records need to be retained by the organization. The auditor should physically examine records, billings, and contracts to verify this. Outside research such as contacting vendors may also be conducted to determine the reasonableness of management's assertions. Emergency Procedures Procedures for the stocking of food and water, capabilities of administering CPR/first aid, and dealing with family emergencies should be clearly written and tested. This can generally be accomplished by the company through good training programs and a clear definition of job responsibilities. The auditor can verify this is accomplished through: Inquires of personnel Physical observation Examination of training records and any certifications Backup of Key Personnel Positions Clearly written policies and specific communication with employees should be used to substantiate this. There must also be confirmation that the personnel backups can actually do the duties assigned to them in an event of an emergency. Periodic training can also help alleviate this. This training should include updates to existing job positions and testing to confirm proficiency. The auditor needs to verify that: Policies are being enforced Testing is effective Training is adequate. Hardware and Software Vendor List Copies of this should be periodically updated and stored on and off site, as well as being accessible by those who require them. An auditor should test the procedures used to meet this objective and determine their effectiveness.
The plan needs to take into account the extent of its responsibilities to other entities and their ability to make those commitments in lieu of a major event. Are their clauses in contracts that minimize against any legal liability for lack of performance in the event of disaster or any other unusual circumstance? Agreements pertaining to establishing support and assisting with recovery for the entity should also be outlined. The auditor should: Examine the reasonableness of the plan Determine whether it takes all factors into account Verify the contracts and agreements through documentation and outside research In conducting the audit, the individual or team should make use of various other procedures and processes to achieve
200
201
the objectives of the audit. These objectives should be clearly stated in the audit plan.
SATELLITE TECHNOLOGY FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT
India has been traditionally vulnerable to natural disasters like cyclone, drought, floods, earthquakes, forest fires, landslides on account its unique geographical position, climate and geological setting, Each year disasters account for loss of millions of rupees in terms of social and community assets besides economic losses that are both immediate as well as long term in nature. Disaster management is a typically multi-disciplinary endeavour, requiring many types of data with spatial and temporal attributes that should be made available to key players in the right format for decision-making In recent years, the focus of disaster management community is increasingly moving on to more effective utilization of emerging technologies such as remote sensing, Geographic Information System, and Satellite Communication, enabling to prepare for and mitigate potential impacts. Several critical inputs are required in order to take preventive measures through vulnerability analysis, hazard zonation and prior risk assessment at regional and local levels. The volume of information needed for natural disasters far exceeds the capacity to deal with them manually. Information derived from GIS and Remote Sensed satellite imagery plays an important role in disaster management and crisis prevention. Their effective application depends not solely on technical specifications, but is influenced by factors such as data collection, processing and distribution, capacity building, institutional development and information sharing. In this context contemporary technology such as GIS, GPS, database, Internet etc will play an important role. Indian space infrastructure consisting of Indian Remote sensing satellites & INSAT system, is uniquely placed to provide services related to Disaster watch, Warning dissemination, Data collection, Monitoring and damage assessment, Vulnerability mapping, Communication support etc The recent tsunami disaster in the Indian Ocean demonstrated the extent that space technologies can contribute to emergency response and disaster reduction.
The use of such technologies has been proven useful in the risk assessment, mitigation and preparedness phases of disaster management. It is imperative that recent technological advances be fully harnessed to aid the disaster managers towards reducing loss of life and property. Disaster information involves more than just data and several interconnecting steps are typically required to generate the type of action-oriented products that are needed by the disaster management community. The exact steps taken depend on the disaster phase and how time critical the need is. Technology support required for disaster management fall in the category of observations, data collection, networking, communication, warning dissemination, service delivery mechanisms, GIS databases, expert analysis systems, information resources etc. However, there are several technological challenges constraining their effective utilization down the line at community level. This paper highlights the potential of these technologies for disaster management and state of art of application of these technologies at Decision Support Centre, (DSC), which is established at National Remote Sensing Agency under Disaster Management Support Programme, Department of Space, Govt. of India. The use of satellite remote sensing data for generation of information on the six natural disasters Flood, cyclone, Drought, Forest fires, Landslides and Earthquakes are addressed here and the dissemination of the value added information to the end users through the network connectivity is discussed.
MAXIMIZING USE OF SPACE-BASED OBSERVING PLATFORMS FOR CRITICAL APPLICATIONS
As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensor web for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes.
202
203
In reality, there is little analysis available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning, security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensor web concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensor web should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensor web can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the loss of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting together to address such colossal problems. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a prerequisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomena's. This paper examines various sensor web options and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing potential natural hazards information to the decision makers in the most expeditious manner so they can prepare themselves to mitigate potential risks to human life, livestock and property.
MAINSTREAMING EARTH DECISION SUPPORT FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT IN MESOAMERICA THROUGH THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE REGIONAL VISUALIZATION AND MONITORING SYSTEM (SERVIR)
The Regional Visualization and Monitoring System for Mesoamerica (SERVIR, in Spanish) has been established at the Water Center for the Humid Tropics for Latin America and the Caribbean (CATHALAC). SERVIR utilizes NASA data, technologies, and products to collect, archive, process, model and distribute raster and vector data. SERVIR implements decisions support tools fpr climate change, disaster management, land planning, terrestrial carbon stocks, forest fires monitoring, water resources and coastal zone management. This presentation will discuss SERVIR program efforts to enhance the capacity of the Mesoamerican disaster management community. Topics will include the implementation of a text message fire alert system, distribution of weather and climate prediction models, advanced visualization of real-time weather data, and the development of a Natural Disasters Atlas under the auspices of the Plan Puebla Panama Initiative. Discussion will focus on existing data and analysis gaps in the region, the consequences this has for the disaster management community, and how the SERVIR program will address these.
DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH RESOLUTION POPULATION DYNAMICS MODEL FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT
The unanticipated occurrences of most natural and technological disasters put a large number of people at risk. The lack of efficient advanced warning systems compels emergency responders to quickly assess the extent of the inflicted destruction and the magnitude of impacts on human population. Disaster preparedness aims at assessing population at risk based upon scenario driven modeling and simulation of disasters. Geospatial information has been clearly recognized as the common element in all preparedness, response, and recovery activities as it enhances situational awareness and analysis leading to improved information communication, sharing, and decision making.
204
205
High resolution population distribution data is nucleus to the essential geospatial information for disaster management. Commonly available data from Census has traditionally been the exclusive source for population information. However, typical Census data is constrained both in space and time and fails to capture the obvious dynamic behavior of population as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant negative consequence on the fidelity of event based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. Given the spatial (where) and temporal (when) uncertainty of disasters, the static nature of Census data is largely a paralyzing factor in disaster impact assessment approaches. From a spatial perspective, Census data is limited by Census accounting units (such as blocks), there often is great uncertainty about spatial distribution of residents within those accounting units. This is particularly appropriate in suburban and rural areas, where the population is dispersed to a greater degree than urban areas. From a temporal perspective, Census counts represent "residential" or "nighttime" population and its usage in a daytime event simulation is illogical. Because of this uncertainty, there is significant potential to misclassify people with respect to their location from, for example pollution sources, and consequently it becomes challenging to determine if certain sub-populations are actually more likely than others to get differential environmental exposure. For example, in the US, the source for population data is the US Census Bureau, which reports population counts by census blocks (smallest polygonal unit), block groups (aggregated blocks), and tracts (aggregated block groups). At the highest resolution (block level), a uniform population distribution is assumed and the population values are typically an attribute of the block (polygon) centroids. Similarly, population values for block groups and tracts are reported at the centroids of the block group and tract polygons. In geospatial analyses, these points are used to represent the population of a census polygon. For example, calculation of travel time to health care providers considers these centroids as the starting points for
travel. For exposure and risk analyses, these centroids often serve as "receptor" points for calculating exposure or dosage from any dispersed agent. In common practice, census data are intersected with buffers of influence (such as polygons representing disaster impact zones) using two primary to quantify population at risk: a. count the entire population (if the centroid is inside the buffer) or zero population (if the centroid is outside the buffer) b. an area weighted population accounting approach (based on the ratio of the areas of the polygon included in and excluded from the buffer). These limitations, to a large degree, can be overcome by developing population data with a finer resolution in both space and time at sub-Census levels. Geodemographic data at such scales will represent a more realistic non-uniform distribution of population. Using an innovative approach with Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has made significant progress towards solving this problem (Bhaduri et al., 2002; Dobson et al., 2000). ORNL, as part of its LandScan global population project, has developed a high resolution population distribution model (LandScan Global) for the entire world. At its finest resolution, the global model is spatially resolved at 30 arc seconds per cell. LandScan is the finest global population data ever produced and is 2400 times more spatially refined than the previous standard. As an expansion to global LandScan, ORNL is currently developing a very high-resolution (90m cell) population distribution data (LandScan USA) for the US. At this resolution population distribution data includes nighttime (residential) as well as daytime distributions. The LandScan population distribution model is a multilayered dasymetric spatial modeling approach, which is also referred to as smart interpolation technique. It collects best available census counts (usually at sub-province level) for each country, calculates a "likelihood" coefficient for each cell, and
206
207
applies the coefficients to the census counts which are employed as control totals for appropriate areas. For LandScan USA, census blocks serve as the polygonal unit control population. Census blocks are divided into finer grid cells (90m) and then each is evaluated for the likelihood of being populated based on a number of relevant spatial characteristics (including land cover, slope, proximity to roads, and nighttime lights). Criticality of such spatial indicators from remotely sensed data has been well recognized (Elvidge et al., 1997; Sutton et al., 1997). The total population for that block is then allocated to each cell weighted to the calculated likelihood (population coefficient) of being populated. Large volumes of satellite derived spatial data including land cover and nighttime lights are used in developing LandScan databases and verification and validation (V&V) of the population model. Locating daytime populations requires not only census data, but also other socio-economic data including places of work, journey to work, and other mobility factors such as daytime business and cultural attractions/populated places datasets. The combination of both residential and daytime populations will provide significant enhancements to geospatial applications ranging from homeland security to socioenvironmental studies. This discussion will describe ongoing development of the computational framework for spatial data integration and modeling framework for LandScan. A large number of disparate and misaligned spatial data sets are spatio-temporally correlated and integrated in the modeling framework to understand, model, validate, and visualize dynamics of population. Discussions will cover development of algorithms to utilize population infrastructure datasets (such as residences, business locations, academic institutions, correctional facilities, and public offices) along with behavioral or mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. In addition, we will discuss development and integration of transportation, physical and behavioral science computational
algorithms; the integration of these models that address different scales and different time frames; and the development of dynamic optimization routines to take advantage of real-time data from sensor networks. We will also demonstrate utilization of such high resolution population distribution data within an integrated modeling and simulation framework of a transportation network creation model, a demographic model generator, and a traffic simulation model to enhance the fidelity of an evacuation model. Satellite Data Management Acquisition Planner for Disaster
In this paper, we present a semi-automated tool that enables optimum utilization of satellite resources for disaster management. Satellite data plays an important role in disaster management due to it's synoptic coverage and coverage by overhead imaging of those areas which are inaccessible during disasters. Data is also used in different phases of disaster management like monitoring, analysis and rescue operations. A number of satellites/sensors varying in resolution and revisit capabilities and operating in different parts of the electromagnetic spectrum are available for managing different types of disasters. This gives rise to multiple observation opportunities of a given area by various satellites differing in resolution, extent of area covered and date of coverage. In order to use satellite imagery for disaster management, the first step is to obtain best possible and most suitable data. Space agencies provide highest priority for covering disaster affected areas. Satellite data users can decide their data requirements using satellite reference charts and other software utilities. Currently, to determine imaging opportunities of multiple satellites, different packages and methods have to be used. Each agency comes with it's own user interface and output formats. The sequence of steps to be followed can also vary greatly. A number of satellites are available to the disaster manager for analysis. Many packages are specific to a set of satellites. SPA, provided by Radarsat International (RSI) is specific to
208
209
RADARSAT. DESCW provided by Eurimage caters to a set of satellites and allows one to know whether the area is covered on a specific date. A software like IDRS provided by ISRO can be used to decide coverage of the area of interest by Indian Remote Sensing satellites. Satellite coverage charts along with path calendars help deciding dates of coverage. This interactive process varies across packages and the whole sequence has to be followed each time (like entering area of interests, time period etc.). In a time critical application like disaster management, this step of determining suitable data to order is currently time consuming. To know available options, it requires technical expertise in the use of different packages which may or may not be available. The outputs from different packages have to then be compared and a decision has to be made about which data to acquire. This is again manual and may change from person to person. All this can now be done by any person without the technical expertise of the packages in a matter of a few minutes by the Data Acquisition Planner application. With its easy to use Graphical User Interface(GUI), it can be used by anyone. This application determines which data is available for a disaster based on it's location, extent and time. It then identifies which data is most appropriate among the available data for a particular disaster at that time. Suitability is calculated based on a number of factors including disaster type, type of data required, resolution and other parameters like date and extent of coverage. Different properties desired in the satellite imagery that make it suitable for different disasters are given by experts in their respective domains. These include type of data, resolution and viewing angles. In addition, weights are given to different properties of the imaging opportunity like date of coverage, resolution, viewing angle and extent of coverage. These weights are also decided by experts. User inputs geographical location, extent, type of disaster and the time period for which data is to be acquired. Imaging opportunities are determined for multiple satellites. Based on the properties of the imaging opportunity and weights given
to each of the factors, percentage of suitability is calculated for each opportunity. Opportunities are then displayed in order of suitability. At this stage, the user can choose the most suitable or override it for a particular scenario. Outputs can be stored in a convenient format. Filling the appropriate order forms and sending can also be automated. Data ordered can be stored in a database for future retrieval. The map output can be exported and used to generate reports. Orbit prediction is based on orbital information in Two Line Element Sets (TLE) format. This tool has the following advantages. The user can determine most suitable data without having proficiency in the use of multiple packages. All imaging opportunities are available on a common platform. Their spatial extent can also be visualized on a common background map. Also, the technical expertise of a few experts is made available to more people. This tool gives the most suitable data to be acquired and does it in a few minutes. This in turn leads to better analysis and will be more beneficial for the management of the disaster. In case of multiple disasters, optimization techniques are used to decide which satellite data is more suitable for each disaster location. This is a light-weight application with a very user-friendly graphical user interface. It is developed using Visual Basic and a GIS library. It can be used on any windows platform.
THE UNIQUE PROTOTYPE REMOTE SENSING DATA INTEGRATION SYSTEM CEOP FOR THE ATMOSPHERIC STUDIES
Monitoring the earth and atmosphere from space is an important task. Remote sensing from space satellites enables uniform and periodic monitoring. The unique international programme Coordinated Enhanced Observation Period (CEOP) is having the capability of providing the key elements for energy and water cycle observing system studies. An integrated energy and water cycle observational system brought together the capabilities of both satellites based and ground based (remote and in-situ) observing systems for the period 2001 to 2004. These observing systems would support research activities dealing with the role of the atmospheric energy and water cycle
210
Role of the Corporate Sector
211
in climate, and prediction systems through the specifications of initial and boundary conditions. This study explains the capability of following different types observations namely: (1) sub-surface-soil profiles (2) surface-stand meteorological radiation parameters (3) near surface-flux tower (4) atmospheric profiles-rawinsonde, profiles etc. These CEOP data components are necessary to integrate observations based on coordination among field science groups, space agencies, and numerical weather prediction centers in the local, regional and global scales. This CEOP data set is a unique tool, which is accessible through web, collective, coordinated information, as readily available, comparable with other sources. The accomplishments of CEOP-I called (a) global versus regional products, (b) desired assimilation output, (c) interval and length of free-running forecasts, (d) operational versus reanalysis data are also explained. Few atmospheric disasters have been presented in this study for the Asian region. These studies present the following spaces-based future plan. The importance of 10-year implementation plan for Earth Observation adopted at the third earth observation summit to archive the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), International efforts to comprehensive monitor the Earth by integrating various satellites, in-situ measurements, and models are gaining importance. As a contribution to GEOSS, the Global Change Observation Mission (GCOM) to perform climate change observations succeeding the observations of Midori-II and Aqua. GCOM will consist of two different types of satellites over three consecutive generations and will establish a continuous long-term data record. The GCOM mission will complement the worldwide operational Earth observation missions, including NPOESS from United States, and the European mission METOP also explained. The promising microwave radiometer constellation for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) is presented.
6
ROLE OF THE CORPORATE SECTOR
INTRODUCTION
Unlike the bounty of nature, its fury is a great leveler. Natural disasters affect everyone alike although the nature of impact varies from region to region and sector to sector with the coping capacity of an individual sector being the differentiating factor. The catastrophic fallout of natural disasters on the community and the people is very well documented by now. At the same time, it is their impact on the existence, survival and viability of the economic muscle of a nation, community and region, i.e. the corporate sector, which also merits equally focused attention. The critical and catalytic role the corporate sector can play in mainstreaming disaster management into not only its own functioning but also in other sectors and among the community is now being appreciated and duly recognized as an inalienable part of corporate social responsibility. India has been traditionally vulnerable to natural disasters on account of its unique geo-climatic conditions. In view of India's high vulnerability profile, the recurrent phenomena of a range of geophysical as well as hydro-meteorological hazards impact millions across the country leaving behind a trail of heavy loss of lives, property and livelihoods. In many areas of the country, disaster losses tend to outweigh the development gains. The economic and social costs on account of losses caused by natural disasters continue to mount year after year as disasters occur with unfailing regularity encompassing every
212
213
segment of national life including the industrial and corporate sector. Traditionally, India had been 'reactive' in its approach towards disasters - with precious resources being spent on relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts. Today, after considerable and meticulous planning and a concerted effort, a paradigm shift in the approach of the Government departments and agencies as well as of other stakeholders including the community, the corporate sector and others has been brought about for building holistic capabilities for disaster management. The focus has shifted to a balanced approach including predisaster aspects such as disaster prevention, mitigation and preparedness since it is felt that appropriate mitigation measures can substantially, if not wholly, reduce the heavy toll of lives and property, the dissipation of developmental, industrial and infrastructural gains and the hard-earned socio-economic infrastructure. For long, the corporate sector had been viewed as a separate entity perennially ranged at the other end of the spectrum vis-vis the society. Over the past few decades, this perception has undergone a complete metamorphosis and the existence of corporate sector is today intimately intertwined with the safety and well-being of the society. Rather the community today is the very raison d'etre of its being. It is the crux lending credence and substance to the world view of the corporates. The corporate sector and the society are being seen as complementary to each other - heavily dependent upon each other for mutual existence and prosperity. The high vulnerability profile of India also enhances the susceptibility of the corporate sector to multiple disasters and impacts it similarly. The rising ferocity and magnitude of natural disasters and the expanding human and economic infrastructure over the last few decades has led to a greater exposure of the same to hazards of nature. The only way of safeguarding the precious physical infrastructure is to integrate disaster prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures into them. While hazards belong to nature and cannot be wished away, the risks can definitely be reduced and the vulnerabilities can definitely be tackled - and this belongs to us.
The involvement and association of the corporate sector with national risk reduction and risk management initiatives and with dissemination of appropriate and practical structural and non-structural disaster prevention and mitigation measures necessary for their safe and disaster-free functioning has been accorded priority as part of a strategy to systematically mainstream holistic disaster management into the functioning of the corporate sector. The ever-expanding extent, sweep and scale of natural disasters has made it imperative for the corporate sector to initiate and integrate disaster risk prevention and mitigation measures in all facets of their functioning and operations with the objective of safeguarding the painstakingly built industrial assets from the impact of natural disasters. During the last decade, the frequency and fury of disaster occurrences in different parts of the country has imposed a colossal economic cost in terms of financial losses, disruption in industrial activities, retardation of expansion and growth plans and dissipation of investment and precious resources on rebuilding the same assets and infrastructure to make the operations sustainable. It is an 'encounter' of the worst kind with the dice firmly loaded against the human and physical infrastructure. Today, the corporate sector has become an inalienable part of our socio-economic and national life and a vibrant industry is not only better placed to make itself sustainable but can also act as a composite foil to the governmental efforts at holistic disaster management. Recognizing the importance of integrating the corporate sector and their nodal organizations in disaster prevention, mitigation and preparedness agenda, the National Disaster Management Framework drawn up by the Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India envisages "involvement of corporate sector in awareness generation and disaster preparedness and mitigation planning" through sensitization, training and co-opting of the corporate sector and their nodal bodies in planning process and response mechanisms. Similarly, the GoI- UNDP Disaster Risk Management Programme also entails promotion of partnerships with the private sector in
214
215
awareness generation and sensitization leading to development of disaster risk management plans. The recent major disasters have clearly indicated the need for interweaving of disaster risk reduction and management concerns in order to minimize the losses- both human and economic. This underscores the necessity of involvement of all stakeholders, from the Government, at all levels, to Community Based Organizations, international and national organizations, the community and, of course, the corporate sector.
THE ROLE OF CORPORATE SECTOR
In keeping with the paradigm shift in its approach to disaster management brought about by the Government of India and the recurring phenomenon of natural disasters impacting all sectors of socio-economic life, including the corporate sector, and inflicting heavy economic losses, focused attention has been given to risk mitigation endeavors to systematically reduce the vulnerabilities. The new approach stems from the premise that development in any sector, more so in the corporate world, cannot be sustainable and viable unless risk reduction and mitigation measures are built into the development processes and that investments in mitigation are much more cost-effective than expenditure on relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction. Recognizing the gargantuan proportions of the challenge posed by recurring incidence of natural catastrophes, association and involvement of corporate sector and their representative nodal organizations for initiating disaster risk management measures has been considered as integral to success of disaster management initiatives. The corporates in every country have always played a major role in post-disaster relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts in the affected regions. In India, the contribution of the corporate sector has been notable especially in the aftermath of the devastating super-cyclone in Orissa in 1999 and the Bhuj earthquake (Gujarat) in 2001. The industrial and corporate organizations like the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), the PHD Chambers of Commerce and
Industry and other industry and area-specific manufacturers and traders associations have been in the forefront of providing much-needed succor to the affected populace for ameliorating their sufferings. The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), with a direct membership base of nearly five thousand industrial and corporate houses and an indirect associate membership of around fifty thousand companies from 283 national and regional sectoral associations, was the first industry organization to constitute a Disaster Management Committee in May 2001 as part of its corporate set-up to advise and assist its member industries in initiating disaster risk reduction steps to insulate industrial establishments, infrastructure and processes from the vagaries and damaging potential of natural and man-made (industrial/technological) disasters. CII had undertaken extensive relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction work in the aftermath of Orissa supercyclone and Bhuj ".. [Business has] responsibility to itself, to its customers, workers, shareholders and the community. every enterprise, no matter how large or small, must, if it is to enjoy confidence and respect seek actively to discharge its responsibilities in all directions.. and not to one or two groups, such as shareholders and workers, at the expense of community and consumer. Business must be just and humane, as well as efficient and dynamic." - Shri Lal Bahadur Shastri, Prime Minister of India in 1965 Earthquake - adopting villages and contributing to the reconstruction of social and community assets. Apart form addressing natural disasters, CII has established an Environment Management Division (EMD) involved in research and propagation of environmentally sound industrial systems and processes. It has been deeply involved in advising and developing systems and methodologies for safer and disasterfree handling of chemicals and other hazardous substances in production processes and procedures. The EMD has also been assisting the industries in development and implementation of on-site and off-site disaster management plans for ushering into an environment friendly
216
217
industrial scenario, especially in the light of experience of the Bhopal Gas Tragedy. In addition, many area-specific industrial and commercial associations have also been contributing towards the well-being of the community around them by adopting socioeconomic practices aimed at improving the living conditions and generally benefiting the people at large. For example, the Ankleshwar Environment Preservation Society in Ankleshwar, Gujarat along with Ankleshwar Industrial Association has set up joint effluent treatment plants for medium and small-scale industries in the industrial belt with predominantly chemical industries and has also taken up disposal and treatment of solid and hazardous waste generated by industries and the cities with their own expertise and finance. Industries at Ankleshwar have shown that through a proactive and collaborative approach, environmental problems can be addressed in a constructive manner. The corporate sector possesses huge resources - human, material, technical and financial - and has significant presence in every region in the country. It also works and interacts with the community very closely and has an important stake in the well-being and prosperity of the community as its own progress and viability is largely dependent upon a resilient and safe community. The accountability of the corporate sector in terms of its Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) has also increased as the value and reputation of a company is being increasingly adjudged by its social behavior and by its contribution to the economic well-being and development of the communities in which it operates. However, in keeping with the change in focus to the predisaster aspects of prevention, mitigation and preparedness to mount an allround assault on vulnerabilities and building of capacities at all levels, a lot of emphasis has been laid on integrating the disaster risk reduction and risk management aspects into the functioning and processes of industries. With a view to achieve this objective, active collaboration with representative industrial organizations like the CII, FICCI etc. is being forged for assessing and meeting the needs of corporates to have their assets and infrastructure analyzed from the point
of view of retrofitting of existing structures and ensuring safety of upcoming industrial assets and establishments against the vagaries of nature. The strategic framework envisages involvement of corporate bodies in entire gamut of issues connected with integrating disaster management concerns in the developmental efforts of the private sector - with a specific emphasis on pre-disaster aspects. Moreover, the corporate sector organizations have linkages with other similar organizations in different countries and regularly exchange and supplement each others' information and resources in times of need. It is, therefore, imperative for the success of initiatives in the area of disaster risk management that corporate sector organizations and their networks are associated with different facets of disaster management.
CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) permeates every aspect of the functioning of corporate sector. The corporates always look for ways and means to enhance the brand value of their company and their products. It is in this context that corporate social responsibility makes good business sense. It is a business strategy that works. Nowadays, the value and reputation of a company are increasingly being seen as its most valuable assets for retaining the loyalty and trust of the public to ensure a bright and sustainable future. The business corporations, because of their high visibility, are being adjudged not merely on the basis of their bottom lines but also on their social behavior. By integrating CSR into its business strategy as a core value, the corporates not only make a significant contribution to a better society but are also recognized for doing so. This has obvious benefits for the company. In fact, enormous rewards are there both for the business/industrial community as well as the society. The companies are motivated to achieve profitability, sustainable growth and human progress by placing corporate social responsibility in the mainstream of their business practice. As part of their corporate social responsibility, the companies are encouraged to conduct business responsibly by contributing
218
219
to the economic health and development of communities in which they operate; create healthy and safe working conditions to attract and retain a quality workforce; manage risk more efficiently and minimize the negative impact of its activities on the environment and its resources; be accountable to all stakeholders through dialogue and transparency regarding economic, social and environmental impacts of business activities; operate a good governance structure and uphold the highest standards and ethics while conducting business. The corporate sector is an integral part of the society. As a member of the community, it is its responsibility to contribute to sustainable development and to integrate social and environmental concerns in its business operations as well as in its interaction with other stakeholders. It can play a leading role in supporting and building the knowledge, capacity and skills of the community in comprehensive risk-based disaster management activities ranging from prevention, mitigation and preparedness to response and recovery. It can offer human and financial resources and can also be a precious source of technical knowhow, as for example in the case of identification and research on technological solutions to prepare for and respond to natural disasters. In addition, the recovery of the community cannot be complete if the business community itself is seriously affected as disasters can have serious negative fall-out on the corporate sector. For them to acquire capacity in disaster risk management would also entail protection of their employees and dependents. Corporate sectors' cooperation in reducing people's vulnerabilities to natural disasters would also help it in protecting its market catchment areas. In the aftermath of a catastrophe, the resources of the community are more likely to be utilized in protecting and rebuilding livelihoods rather in acquiring goods and services offered by the corporate sector. Thus, their involvement in minimizing the impact of a natural event or in facilitating speedy and sustainable recovery should be viewed as a form of investment in protecting and securing its own "sources of livelihood".
As an inalienable part of its CSR, the corporate sector can play an essential role in leading and supporting the community in comprehensive risk management activities and in mobilizing human and financial resources as well as materials for utilization during a disaster situation. In addition to this, the corporate sector can be a precious source of technical knowledge, as for example in the case of identification and research on technological solutions to prepare for and respond to natural disasters. On the whole, corporate sector has the potential for strengthening and promoting its own safety and protection against natural catastrophes as well as in assisting the community at large in reducing its vulnerability to disasters.
INDIA INC.' RESPONSE - CONTRIBUTION TO TSUNAMI DISASTER RELIEF AND REHABILITATION ENDEAVOR
The President of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has invoked the corporate sectors' social responsibility and appealed for liberal contributions and support to the relief and rehabilitation efforts in the aftermath of the Tsunami tragedy. The gargantuan scale of death and devastation in its wake across countries has been unprecedented. The CII has set up "Tsunami Relief Fund" and has activated helpline offices in Delhi, Chennai and Hyderabad. It has also set up an Outreach Inc. office in Virginia, USA to mobilize resources. The Confederation is in touch with the Central and State (Provincial) Governments and is collecting feedback on the extent of damage and the immediate requirements of the affected people. Considering the tsunamic proportions of the tragedy and an acute shortage of drinking water especially in the island areas as well as in Tamil Nadu, CII has operationalized four easyto- use water treatment plants, courtesy a member industry of the CII, in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands to provide clean drinking water to the affected people. Light trucks, generators, pumps and other industrial equipment has also been sent. CII has also deputed volunteers to manage distribution of relief materials through its warehouses.
220
221
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF DISASTERS ON CORPORATE SECTOR
At the global level, nearly 700 major catastrophes take place every year affecting billions in different countries. The disasters periodically visit the same geographical regions and set the development clock back by decades. It is similar to taking two steps forward and one step backwards. In some countries, this equation even gets reversed. The repeated occurrence of natural catastrophes undermines the economic viability of the communities as well as the corporate sector further impoverishing the impoverished and sapping the very soul. It is estimated that 28 developing countries, including India, suffered direct losses of over 1billion USD each during the past twenty years. In respect of some countries, it amounts to an erosion of over 1% of their annual GDP. In India, the natural disasters eroded 2% of the GDP during 1996-2001 and consumed 12% of the Government revenue during the same period. On an average, the disasters have been affecting nearly six million people annually in India and over six percent of the population is directly hit. In addition, the natural disasters pose a major threat to economic development in India as disaster-loss figures are rapidly increasing. For example, during 1965-1980, the losses were to the tune of 2.9 billion USD while during 19811995, the same increased to 13.4 billion USD. However, this was overtopped in six years during 1996-2001 with loss figures touching 13.8 billion USD. The table below shows the catastrophe losses in India during the period in million USDs. The compounded losses suffered by the industries including direct, indirect and secondary losses are colossal and virtually incalculable. At the global level too, the basic disaster frequency and the losses imposed by them are steadily mounting as evidenced by the table below:A study reveals that forty three (43%) percent of the industries experiencing a disaster never re-open and twenty nine (29%) percent close for good within two years even if they mobilize resources to restart operations.
The increasing incidence, frequency and severity of natural catastrophes has resulted in steadily mounting monetary losses, as per the table given below:amounting to Rupees 100 crore and Gujarat State Fertilizer Corporation's output was disrupted to the tune of 2,000 tonnes per day. The wind lifted the heavy cranes and machinery and twisted the transmission towers.
THE ORISSA SUPER-CYCLONE, 1999
The Orissa Super-Cyclone in 1999 inflicted a cumulative loss of nearly 1,000 crores on the industrial sector. The major industries like the Paradeep Port, Oswal Fertilizers and CESCO suffered heavy losses. A large number of industrial units remained inundated for days together. During 1990s, there were three times more incidents of natural disasters and eight times increase in disaster costs as compared to the 1960s. The three major natural disasters in recent years to have caused massive losses to the industries and the corporates have been the Gujarat Cyclone of 1998, the Orissa Super-Cyclone of 1999 and the Bhuj Earthquake of 2001. The Gujarat Cyclone, 1998 The Gujarat Cyclone of 1998 with two landfalls and a wind velocity between 170-200 kmph, ripped through the industrial heart of Gujarat and inflicted an economic loss of nearly Rupees 2,500 crores. The Kandla Port, gateway to the granaries of north India and the industrial belt of west and north India, and neighboring facilities suffered extensive damage and a loss of nearly 600 crores. The corporate sector including Reliance Industries' Jamnagar oil refinery suffered losses. The Bhuj Earthquake (Gujarat), 2001 However, it was during Bhuj Earthquake, 2001 that the need for a comprehensive strategy and planning targeted at safeguarding the industrial and lifeline infrastructure was underscored. The earthquake caused nearly ten thousand industrial units to go out of production as it struck the industrial heartland of the State. The total economic loss was assessed
222
223
at over Rupees five thousand crores. The entire spectrum of industries including the lifeline structures like bridges, roads, power, rail network telecommunication, air control towers and aerodromes suffered damages and hampered restoration and rehabilitation activities. The performance of lifeline and industrial structures left much to be desired and underlined the need to integrate risk reduction and mitigation measures while planning and settingup industrial units. It is estimated that nearly ten thousand industrial units went out of production at the hands of the earthquake and an overwhelming majority of the remaining ones operated at only fifty percept of their output capacity. The economic loss on account of disruption of industrial and commercial activity for over a month is pegged at more than rupees two thousand crores. The earthquake eroded nearly two percent of the GDP of the State of Gujarat - one of the most industrially advanced States in the country. Industrial and Chemical Disasters In addition to the onslaught of natural disasters casting a long shadow over the viability of the economic sector, susceptibility to industrial and chemical hazards also poses a major threat to the healthy and safe functioning of corporate sector. The industries employ many production processes involving a wide range of chemicals and hazardous raw materials, intermediates, waste and final products. These disasters, though normally caused by irresponsible handling of hazardous substances or due to their improper and unauthorized use or due to inadequate attention to maintenance of manufacturing processes, have the potential to substantially undermine the very functioning of industries in the region in the aftermath of any untoward incident since such incidents have widespread ramifications and long-term impact on the society and environment. Between 1970 and 1990, about 180 severe industrial accidents occurred worldwide, leading to the release of various chemical compounds into the environment and killed nearly
eight thousand people, injured more than twenty thousand and led to hundreds of evacuations involving thousands of people. The scenario becomes scary and horrendous if one takes into account the generational and genetic impact on the community for years to come. The Bhopal Gas Tragedy of 1984, involving a sudden release of about 30 tonnes of methyl isocynate (MIC) at the Union Carbide plant due to poor safety management practices, poor early warning systems and lack of community preparedness led to death of nearly three thousand people, caused severe health and respiratory problems and birth of deformed and still-born children. It is estimated that the incident caused damages varying between USD 30 million to as high as USD 3 billion. The deleterious effects of the tragedy can still be felt even after twenty years. It is the world's worst industrial and chemical disaster. Toxic gas leakage from the poorly maintained and understaffed plant has rendered over one hundred twenty thousand people chronically ill. The safety systems designed to prevent such a disaster at the plant had been shut down to save money. The survivors, denied adequate compensation, suffer from debilitating illnesses and the heavily polluted site of the plant has not been cleaned up and poisonous chemicals continue to seep into the ground water further compounding the misery of the residents. The victims and sufferers of the tragedy are bearing the brunt of the after-effects of gas leakage. The Bhopal Gas Tragedy has highlighted the responsibilities of units handling hazardous substances including development of on-site and off-site emergency plans, notifying the authorities and the community around about the processes and materials used, their storage, handling and transportation and the possible hazards emanating there from and the requisite precautionary measures. However, even after the worst chemical tragedy, forty two major industrial disasters have taken place since then taking a toll of over two hundred fifty persons in India and exposure to hazardous materials and wastes to explosives in metal scrap
224
225
continues unabated. In spite of numerous environmental and regulatory laws, the chemical and hazardous industries continue to generate and discharge tonnes of potentially dangerous wastes every day, posing a grave danger to people's health, lives and environment. In spite of stupendous human and economic cost of natural phenomena in myriad forms resulting in breakdown of support infrastructure and services compounding loss and trauma of the affected, the factors aggravating these continue to multiply introducing newer hazards and accentuating the vulnerabilities of human and industrial infrastructure. The situation is leading to an enhanced expenditure on emergency response and relief and diversion of developmental resources as reinvestment in restoration of socio-economic infrastructure. It has impeded and retarded industrial growth leading to a fall in industrial production and revenues generated there from. The corporate sector as well as the community has to depend increasingly upon external borrowings to meet its immediate needs and to make the industrial units operational. The natural as well as man-made disasters cast a tremendous social, human and developmental cost with a major impact on the overall human development indices and industrial growth, stability and prosperity in the affected regions. It is only through adoption and integration of comprehensive disaster risk reduction and mitigation measures that the long shadow of the deleterious impact of natural and industrial/ chemical catastrophes can be contained. The Confederation of Indian Industry and the National Disaster Management Framework Working in tandem with the Framework developed by the Ministry of Home Affairs envisioning strengthening and development of capacities at all levels for holistic disaster risk management and sustainable development, the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has up scaled the scope of its association with the national disaster management agenda and has emerged as the flag-bearer of initiatives for integrating the same into the functioning of the corporate sector.
Extending its support in the area of disaster management since 1999 especially in disaster response, rehabilitation and reconstruction, CII has partnered with the Government initiatives and development organizations like the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) for effective implementation of disaster risk reduction activities and has been regularly organizing summits and symposiums to promote the same. The "Public-Private-People (PPP) Partnership for Natural Disaster Risk Management" is the off-shoot of these initiatives. In order to vest its initiatives vis--vis disaster management for corporate sector and the community a greater depth and substance and in consultation with the Ministry of Home Affairs, the CII has delineated a sustained programme of action to deepen and strengthen its work addressing the entire socioeconomic sector. It is intended to minimize the impact of natural and man-made disasters and to preclude disruption of economic activity impeding achievement of national developmental goals. The joint work plan evolved with the Ministry of Home Affairs primarily entails association of CII in the entire gamut of issues connected with integrating disaster management concerns in the developmental efforts of the private sector. The broad identified themes are -
Awareness Generation: (i) To make people aware of their vulnerabilities and the need for prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures. (ii) Preparation of a booklet containing information on various hazards and the steps to be taken for mitigating the same by CEOs of industries. (iii) Co-opting CII as a member of the Steering Committee for Mass Media Campaign. (iv) Sponsoring awareness generation capsules in print and electronic media.
For awareness generation, a booklet has been designed and developed targeted at the CEOs for inducing a culture of safety and risk management. CII will shortly disseminate the same
226
227
to its member industries. CII has also been co-opted as a member of the Steering Committee for Mass Media Campaign. The slogans/ messages developed by the Ministry of Home Affairs have been sent to member industries for printing on corporate stationery and utilizing them for initiating awareness generation activities through other mediums.
Training: (i) Training of industrial personnel, nearby community and volunteers in disaster management. (ii) Development of training modules and identification of Master Trainers. (iii) Linking the trained personnel with the Disaster Management Teams under the District Administration.
The process of development of training modules has already been initiated and the training of industrial personnel is commencing shortly to develop capacities in different facets of disaster management vis--vis industries. Under the programme initiative, some industries have already started conducting mock-drills jointly with the district administration. Such mockdrills have been conducted in Kochi (Kerala), New Delhi, Ankleshwar and Vadodara (Gujarat) and many other places to test and enhance the capabilities for an efficacious response during an emergency. Mock Drills: Conducting mock-drills at regular intervals to enhance preparedness levels and linkages with the District Administration and other Emergency Support Functions (ESF) departments/ agencies, especially targeted at chemical, mining and pharmaceutical sectors. Development of on-site and off-site Disaster Management Plans as per the guidelines issued by the Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoE&F). The development of onsite and off-site plans has also been initiated by industries in consultation with the district administration. At some places, these plans have already been formulated and shared with the administration for linking with the District DM Plans. The process of development of on-site and off-site DM plans entails identification of the hazards to which the industry, the
neighboring areas and the region is susceptible; estimation of vulnerable zones using credible worst case scenarios; enumeration of characteristics of socio-economic conditions of human population viz. number, concentration, health conditions, social infrastructure and support systems in the vulnerable areas; listing of critical facilities in these areas; analysis of risks posed by each industry based on readily available information on the likelihood of severity of consequences; prioritization of industries on the basis of estimated risks; ranking of risks; compilation of information on community safeguards, response capabilities and previous accident records; assessing probability of occurrence of disasters; enumeration of resources available within the premises, in the neighborhood and likely to be mobilized along with their sources to meet the eventualities likely to occur; conducting mock-drills to test the viability of the DM plan etc. In Gujarat Province, the Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation and the Gujarat State Petronet Limited have welldeveloped on-site and off-site DM plans. Similarly, the Ankleshwar Industrial Association has been assisting its member industries in development of on-site plans and conducting mock-drills. In Delhi, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited, Indian Oil Limited and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited have well developed on-site and off-site plan and have also conducted mockdrills in tandem with the local administration. Preparation of on-site and off-site DM plans by the industries helps the industry to establish necessary linkages with the authorities and the community. It is also a mutually beneficial arrangement as it enables the industry to summon immediate help in case of an emergency within its premises. The corporates view it as an logical extension of the principle of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) as earning the confidence and trust of the community goes a long way in forging strong ties with the community and enhances the viability of the industry. Preparation of inventory of resources, machinery, equipments and man-power available with the private sector for mobilization in the event of an emergency for being uploaded
228
229
on the India Disaster Resource Network (IDRN). Inventorization of resources is a pre-requisite for mounting a speedy and effective disaster response. An on-line web-enable resource inventory has been developed and commissioned to capture the resources in terms of specialized equipments, machinery, manpower etc. in the India Disaster Resource Inventory (IDRN). The webenabled inventory IDRN already has more than eighty thousand records of resources available with Government machinery at the Central and Provincial (State) levels across 550 districts in the country. In order to ensure corporate sector contribution to a speedy and effective disaster response, a module has been developed embedded in the IDRN for the contribution of corporate sector towards national endeavors for mounting a timely response. CII would list the manufacturers of specialized equipments. The CII module, embedded in the national portal, would also facilitate networking with and between CII members through independent access to enter resource details directly to the database. The system requires on-line registration of each CII member to be endorsed by CII office on-line before data entry is undertaken. The process of entering the records has already been initiated by the industries. A proto-type of the IDRN 'Home Page' is reproduced below -Sensitization programmes for building a mindset of safety and mitigation among industries and industrial personnel through State Chapters of Confederation of Indian Industry. As per the work plan, a number of sensitization programmes have already been conducted in different provinces (states) in association with the State Government authorities and the Ministry of Home Affairs and over one thousand five hundred senior functionaries and personnel from industries across the country have been sensitized to induce a mindset of disaster risk reduction and mitigation. These sensitization programs have been conducted in New Delhi, Chennai, Coimbatore, Jamshedpur, Bhubaneswar, Guwahati, Dimapur, Agartala, Jallandhar, Amritsar and a few more are in the offing. The sensitization programmes have primarily concentrated on informing the industries about the hazards and the risks
keeping in mind the vulnerability profile of the country; the requisite structural and non-structural mitigation measures necessary to protect industrial assets and infrastructure against earthquakes, cyclones, floods and others; the need to make the manufacturing processes and procedures inherently safe especially against chemical and fire hazards; importance of developing on-site and off-site disaster management plans and establishing linkages with the district administration as also about the role of corporate sector in overall disaster risk reduction and mitigation initiatives. Organization of an annual event to promote Public-PrivatePartnership and to facilitate technology transfer and information exchange in the field of disaster management with other institutions, organizations and corporate sector bodies within and outside the country. The CII launched the 'India Partnership Forum' in February, 2001 in New Delhi in partnership with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) to promote and strengthen multistakeholder dialogue on Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) issues and a common understanding of good corporate citizenship particularly through evolution of a common code. The Forum also seeks to promote and pilot new and innovative initiatives in corporate partnership for development. Over hundred companies across various sizes and sectors have confirmed their interest in the adoption and implementation of the IPF Social Code. This initiative towards mainstreaming CSR in the business excellence model has supported future efforts at integrating CSR into corporate functioning. Consultations on disaster management and preparedness with the private sector to sensitize them have also been held. In Kochi (Kerala), a mock-drill was conducted in Kochi Refineries Limited (KRL) in association with District Administration, Ernakulam District Crisis Management Group and the National Safety Council. The drill also involved the Fire Department, Police, Municipal authorities, Hospitals and other departments/agencies mandated to provide emergency support to judge the efficacy of the disaster management plan.
230
231
The mock-drill was on a probabilistic scenario of "leakage of LPG from a flange pipe connecting one of the LPG spheres due to an earthquake" with a view to test the District Emergency Plan; to monitor the response of various authorities; the promptness of personnel and to find the lacunae and suitable modifications to the plan. A pre-mock drill meeting was held the previous day and objectives of the exercise were set. The observers, drawn from different industries, are posted at important points to make a record of messages etc. The enactment of the scenario was started with announcement of an earthquake at 0900 hrs. and detection of leakage in LPG storage sphere. The Fire Station is alerted, fire emergency procedure is activated. At 0930 hrs. the situation worsens and leak spreads and the on-site emergency plan is activated. By 1000 hrs. the leak spreads outside the premises of KRL and the Police control Room is informed. The veracity of the Report is reconfirmed and the District authorities are informed. The Collector activates the off-site DM plan and assumes charge as District Emergency Coordinator (DEC) and sets up Control Room. The movement of traffic is restricted and concerned departments are informed. Local control room is set at the site and information is passed along with coordination of operations. The Police, District Fire Officer, Industries Department, District Medical Officer and other Government functionaries are also informed. Around 1130 hrs. the leak is plugged and the emergency is declared over. The important observations arising out of the mock-drill were as follows: Communication failure was noticed with high time lag between passing of messages. Plan to be updated regularly with changed telephone numbers. Delay in calling Fire Services leading to delay in rescue and lifting of casualties from the site. Telecommunication is a major problem during an emergency and alternate communication network needs to be established at the local control room.
Training of Police and other departments on importance of Disaster Management Plans. Delay in response time.
RISK TRANSFER MECHANISMS
Apart from disaster risk management measures to arrest the spiraling cost of disasters and their wider socio-economic import, a nascent beginning has also been made in India towards addressing them through risk transfer mechanisms. One of the major mechanisms for risk transfer is the insurance sector and the proposed instrument is the insurancelinked savings-cumloan- cum-subsidy scheme. The logic behind cross-sectoral risk transfers being that the transferor takes on the risk as a part or consequence of its core business and his incentive being that the cost of transferring or hedging the risk is calculated to be lower than the cost of retaining it. However, insurance in India is yet to receive due recognition as a socio-economic issue with the result that the insurance market in India, both life and non-life, has not been able to fulfill its potential and achieve higher penetration levels. The cover for natural disasters is today considered as part of the cover against the fire hazard. The need of the hour is to view disaster insurance as a step towards disaster preparedness. In some countries, a typical insurance strategy for catastrophic risk allows insurance against "layers" of risk up to 100 to 500 years with the underlying rationale being that losses up to certain limit can probably be sustained without major difficulties whereas for rarer but more catastrophic events risk transfer needs to be undertaken. Under the sensitization programmes for the corporate sector, a capsule on risk transfer mechanisms is also included to familiarize them about these through a representative of one of the prominent insurance companies. It is well known that most industries would lose critical operational capability after an 'encounter' with a natural catastrophe. Each risk is evaluated and ranked according to its probability and severity and the strategy is to purchase insurance in order to transfer the financial risk. However while going in for
232
233
insurance, the company should make sure that the insurance company is financially stable with a long-term commitment; review risk financing options yearly; prepare early and be proactive for insurance renewals and underwriters and appraise the market realities viz. higher deductibles, sizeable premium increases and limitations. The overall benefit of the strategy being that the mechanism is an enabling instrument allowing for exchange of uncertainty of financial risk for the certainty of a premium. It indicates an acceptance of the risk and shows that the sector is aware of the hazards it is exposed to and is expected to protect itself against. In view of the same, it wishes to lower the impact and the probability of occurrence. The strategy helps in business continuity planning since it has taken care of the impact of risks and helps remove or reduce the cause or source of threat and exposure to a considerable extent. Catastrophe insurance helps in more ways than one - it helps in removal of the cause, reduction of the severity of the event, mitigation of consequences and their impact and facilitates internal-external-social funding interface. Currently, there are two funding mechanisms in India for relief and rehabilitation efforts - the Calamity Relief Fund (CRF) and the National Calamity Contingency Fund (NCCF). This mechanism is reviewed by the Finance Commission every five years and makes recommendations regarding division of tax and non-tax revenues between the Central and the State Governments. The size of CRF is determined after taking into account the expenditure on relief and rehabilitation over the past ten years. The Central Government contributes 75% of the revenues while the States contribute the remaining 25% of the corpus. However, where the calamity is of proportions beyond the capacity of the concerned State Government, they can seek assistance under the NCCF - a fund created at the Central level. For the period 2001-2005, the Finance Commission has allocated roughly Rupees ten thousand crores for the CRF. In view of the increasing basic disaster frequency and the rapidly mounting disaster-related monetary losses, the
insurance sector can provide the requisite risk transfer instruments. However, the private insurance market is struggling to meet the challenge due to low penetration levels. India's general insurance market is at a nascent stage and is considerably underdeveloped in spite of the fact that it has a huge potential. Yet the catastrophe insurance purchasing is insufficient as major insurers do not have accurate up-to-date accumulation data. In the Bhuj earthquake, insurable losses were more than USD 2 million whereas the actual losses were around USD 16 million. It is well known that natural disasters pose a threat to India's development and a formal risk management strategy incorporating risk transfer mechanisms is required. The States could be advised to prepare such strategies with fiscal incentives and technical support. The government could also make insurance mandatory at least for those taking out mortgages. At the same time, disaster funding strategies need to be based on probabilistic determinations of loss potentials and funding gaps and where possible should use private risk financing markets. Since loss potentials vary across regions, this should determine the urgency of risk transfer mechanisms. The system of insurance should be accessible to all including the rural and the poor alike. It should compensate for catastrophic income losses to protect consumption and debt repayment capacity and the private sector should be able to extend the same with little or no government subsidy. As long as the instrument is voluntary and unsubsidized, it will only be purchased when it is a less expensive and more effective alternative to existing risk management strategies. Accordingly, adequate insurance protection must be made available especially in high-risk areas to low and moderateincome house owners. It is imperative that the cost of disasters is minimized through strong mitigation measures and these must include apart from governments, the business sector and the insurance industry. Deductibles, co-insurance and surcharges are all ways of ensuring insurance protection. Moreover, any insurance programme must strategically aim to dissuade location of industries and buildings in high-risk areas
234
235
and the pricing mechanism should be as per the level of risk and exposure. In high-risk areas, a pooling together of multiple catastrophe risks would also promote coverage. In the Province (State) of Gujarat, the Gujarat State Disaster Management Authority (GSDMA) has launched a Housing Insurance Programme seeking to address monitoring and implementation of recovery programmes and long-term disaster management planning. Under it, more than two hundred thousand households, newly constructed after the earthquake, were insured for ten years against fourteen types of risks including natural hazards and humaninduced accidents. Over twenty one hundred thousand houses reconstructed were insured to mitigate the effects of disasters through risk sharing mechanisms. The Standard Fire and Special Perils Policy (SFSP) was launched with a one-time premium of rupees 360/- (three hundred sixty rupees) to cover risks for a period of ten years up to a value of rupees one hundred thousand. It was made mandatory for all reconstruction programs. Apart from the above-mentioned Government of Gujarat model of obtaining group insurance for the community, the Municipalities and Development Corporations can add a small levy to the property tax to utilize the same for buying insurance against catastrophes. The Group Housing Cooperative Societies in urban areas can be authorized to recover insurance premiums along with maintenance charges. In addition, all lending financial institutions, banks and housing loan corporations must cause insurance to be obtained compulsorily against catastrophes. At the same time, all house building societies and organizations like Urban Development Authorities, City Development Authorities etc. associated with construction and development projects must be mandated to insure against catastrophes. Taking a cue from the experience in community insurance in Gujarat, it would be in fitness of things to explore the possibility of group insurance for the corporate sector on the basis of a cluster of industries in an industrial estate or industrial zone. This will help generate awareness on the issue of securing the industrial assets and adopting a common approach to
disasters. In view of the underdeveloped nature of India's insurance market, the need is to increase penetration and to optimize catastrophe risk capacity. With shift in approach towards disasters, insurance can and should feature as a means of durable finance. It is a principal tool for hedging against financial loss to make the damage suffered bearable at an affordable minimal premium. "Insurance is a potentially important mitigation measure in disaster-prone areas as it brings quality in the infrastructure & consciousness and a culture of safety by its insistence on following building codes, norms, guidelines, quality materials in construction etc. Disaster insurance mostly works under the premise of 'higher the risk higher the premium, lesser the risk lesser the premium', thus creating awareness towards vulnerable areas and motivating people to settle in relatively safer areas." - Extract from a Chapter on 'Disaster Management - The Development Perspective' in the Tenth Five Year Plan Document by the Planning Commission of India [2002-2007]
THE ROAD AHEAD
In view of the imperative need to meet the gigantic challenge posed by natural hazards, the successes achieved, the experience garnered and the onerous task ahead to secure safety and disaster-free functioning of the corporate sector in the larger interests of the nation and the people, the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has decided to up scale and deepen its engagement with integration of disaster management agenda into the corporate sector functioning to minimize losses and prevent disruption of economic activity hampering achievement of developmental goals. In this context, CII is expanding the scope of its activities in association with the Ministry of Home Affairs and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) to facilitate sustainable economic growth through disaster risk reduction and mitigation. This envisages an entire gamut of issues connected with mainstreaming disaster management concerns
236
237
in the developmental efforts at all levels and across a spectrum of sectors. The main themes to be addressed are Ensuring that existing and upcoming industrial assets and infrastructure are disaster-resistant. Ensuring proper citing of industrial establishments considering hazard parameters. Making industrial processes and procedures inherently safe. Ensuring that transportation, storage, handling and usage of chemicals and other hazardous raw materials does not pose a threat to the nearby areas and environment. Development of on-site and off-site DM plans by industries in association with the District Administration. Conducting mock-drills at regular intervals to determine the efficacy of the DM plans. Preparation of inventory of corporate resources and uploading them on the IDRN - India Disaster Resource Network. Large-scale association with awareness generation initiatives aimed at building the knowledge, attitude and skills of the common people for a safer habitat. To move away from relief-centric approach to a proactive assault on vulnerabilities through risk management measures and capacity building of industrial personnel. Assessment and retrofitting of existing industrial infrastructure. Training of a core team of Structural Engineers for advising member industries on requisite mitigation measures in association with the Ministry of Home Affairs. Mainstreaming private sector participation in disaster management. Establishing linkages between private sector and the community.
Networking knowledge on best practices and tools for effective disaster management. Development and implementation of appropriate risk transfer mechanisms. In addition, it is also proposed to secure active participation of corporate sector in risk mapping of the area hosting the industry and in training and capacity building of the community in its disaster preparedness activities. It is also envisaged to create an industry-led voluntary force for search and rescue and first-aid etc. Given the destructive potential of man-made disasters, the activities will also aim at addressing the needs and concerns relating to management of man-made and industrial disasters. This envisages a regular interaction and involvement of the Ministry of Environment and Forests and other institutions associated with research and study of chemical and industrial hazards. A deeper engagement with such organizations and institutions has already been initiated and the process is being intensified to make it more substantive. Development and enforcement of an appropriate technolegal regime is another dimension receiving greater attention. It involves examining and reviewing the existing building bylaws and codes, the town and country planning acts and development control rules etc. to bring them in tune with disaster risk perceptions and mitigation needs. The enforcement of techno-legal regime and its application during the stages of building permit, supervision, completion certificate, occupancy permit and the annual renewal certificate is being done and efforts are being made to undertake training and capacity building of local bodies. It is also proposed to make it mandatory for an engineer/architect to undergo a capsule course in EQ engineering and their association/ certification of the structure is also being made essential. In addition, the techno-financial regime is also sought to be put into place with the provision that all building constructions by public, private, corporate, cooperative, community, joint and individual sectors receiving funds from any source must adopt techno-financial regime without exception. The financial institutions and banks must insist on
238
239
disaster-resistant construction and incorporation of disasterresistant features as a precondition for providing loans or grants for projects. A provision is also proposed to be made for inspection and periodic audit and renewal certificate to move towards an enhanced and voluntary compliance. Even the fixation of insurance premium is also proposed to be linked to the incorporation of disaster-resistant features at the construction stage itself. The establishment of a sound technofinancial regime would facilitate mainstreaming disaster risk management into all aspects of corporate and industrial sectors. Sustainable Development To many business executives, the concept of sustainable development and business remain abstract and quite simply do not go together. But the perception is being rapidly reversed and it is now being widely accepted with the recognition of linkages between protecting a corporates capital base and the natural resources. It is becoming an accepted practice to integrate sustainable development into the planning and measurement systems of business enterprises. Sustainable development for corporates would entail adopting and implementing business approaches which meet the needs of the industry and its stakeholders while at the same time protecting, sustaining and enhancing the human and natural resources for the future. It means that economic development must while satisfying the needs of the enterprise protect the community by ensuring that the natural and human resources are not exploited to their detriment. There is an umbilical bond between sustainable development and disaster risk management and the business organizations are recognizing it so. Integration of risk management measures has to be an all-pervasive activity by the corporates across the industrial spectrum and must not remain a one-off activity. It would seek minimization of expenditure on rehabilitation and reconstruction to obviate dissipation of precious developmental resources and help interweave a culture of safety and preparedness in every walk of national life and more so in the corporate sector so that the development efforts are both socially safe and commercially viable and sustainable. The need is to
bring about a change in perceptions, attitudes, pre-conceived notions and mindsets among the corporate sector about the way the things are approached now. The challenge posed by the issue of sustainable development has been engaging the mind and thought of the international community and the need to achieve equitable and balanced socioeconomic development has been acutely felt. Sustainable development envisions integration of economic and social development with environment protection as interdependent and mutually reinforcing pillars. The overarching objective being to change the existing unsustainable patterns of production and consumption. The World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) defines sustainable development as "development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs." The Johannesburg Plan of Implementation has made a fervent plea to the private sector to improve efficiency, alter existing production patterns and consciously move towards sustainable use of natural resources for all-round development. It also calls for sound management of chemicals throughout their life cycle and of hazardous wastes for sustainable development so as to ensure that use and production of chemicals causes minimum adverse effects on human health and environment through scientific risk management measures. The sine qua non for safe and sustainable development is promotion of corporate social responsibility and accountability, strengthening of public-private-partnerships and continuous attention to improvements in corporate sector practices and processes. For the corporate sector, it is imperative to usher into not only sustainable but also safer development for which harmonization of socio-economic and environment concerns is a must. A multi-hazard approach addressing the disaster management concerns in the corporate sector and the corporates in turn complementing the disaster management endeavors at all levels will ensure a strong and concerted attack on our vulnerabilities.
240
241
Green Business Centre CII has launched a CII-Sohrabji Godrej Green Business Centre in association with the Government of Andhra Pradesh and the Godrej corporate house in March 2000 as a Centre of Excellence for energy efficiency, environment, water conservation and use of recycled products and renewable energy. In addition to making the business profitable, the activities seek to contribute towards sustainable development and a healthy economy. The objective being to make the world a better place to live in by providing world-class 'green' services. The Center is involved in promoting 'green' concepts leading to higher efficiency, equitable growth and sustainable development. In order to achieve the lowest specific energy consumption levels in the world, tools like benchmarking with international norms and identification of ways and means to achieve the same are promoted. It facilitates construction of 'green buildings' viz. a place which is environmentally responsible, profitable and a healthy place to live and work in. The 'Green Audit' presents an opportunity for better utilization of raw materials, consumables, water, energy at every stage of the manufacturing process. A Technology Centre provides a platform to showcase and demonstrate innovative 'green' products and technologies. The Green Business Incubation entails handholding of entrepreneurs to develop green products/technologies tillthey reach the stage of commercialization. It envisions futuristic business opportunities depending on how 'green' the business is since it can leverage access to local and international markets, reduction of manufacturing costs and improving profitability and attract environmentally conscious customers.
CONCLUSION
help pooling of resources but would also facilitate exchange of information and expertise across sectors, learn from each others' experience and best practices. The objective of disaster management initiatives is to consciously move towards strengthening the national capabilities in accordance with the status acquired by India as a selfsufficient and selfrespecting nation well-positioned to mount an effective and substantive disaster response and to take care of the concerns vis--vis disaster management across different sectors. In the aftermath of the recent tsunami crisis too, the response of the government, the civil society, the voluntary organizations and the corporate sector has been exemplary in spite of the geographical constraints and the extent and sweep of operations and has earned appreciation from the international community. The governmental efforts have received commendable support from individuals, organizations, the corporate sector and the society at large. The crisis has brought out the best in our society and the entire nation has risen as one entity to meet the grim challenge posed by this unprecedented catastrophe of gigantic proportions through voluntary and meaningful contribution from every stakeholder. However, effective disaster management is a long-drawn battle against the formidable forces of nature and necessitates devising a comprehensive strategy and work plan based on the lessons learned and experiences gained from every disaster. The shortcomings and gaps need to be addressed and successes built upon. The Government of India as well as other stakeholders including the corporate sector have reaffirmed their commitment and resolve to achieve the objective of moving towards a disaster resilient and safe nation. The task is arduous and the challenge ominous. However, the roadmap is well-defined and clear. No effort will be spared and no constraint would be allowed to impede the progress towards creating a safe and disaster-free nation and the challenge thrown by successive disasters will be converted into an opportunity for further strengthening disaster risk management measures.
Disaster Management being an all-encompassing and multidisciplinary activity spanning across all sectors of development, a coordinated action in conjunction with all stakeholders including the corporate sector is a sine qua non for overcoming the vulnerabilities and minimizing the risks. It will not only
242
The Developmental Perspective
243
7
THE DEVELOPMENTAL PERSPECTIVE
Five Year Plan documents have, historically, not included consideration of issues relating to the management and mitigation of natural disasters. The traditional perception has been limited to the idea of "calamity relief", which is seen essentially as a non-plan item of expenditure. However, the impact of major disasters cannot be mitigated by the provision of immediate relief alone, which is the primary focus of calamity relief efforts. Disasters can have devastating effects on the economy; they cause huge human and economic losses, and can significantly set back development efforts of a region or a State. Two recent disasters, the Orissa Cyclone and the Gujarat Earthquake, are cases in point. With the kind of economic losses and developmental setbacks that the country has been suffering year after year, the development process needs to be sensitive towards disaster prevention and mitigation aspects. There is thus need to look at disasters from a development perspective as well. Further, although disaster management is not generally associated with plan financing, there are in fact a number of plan schemes in operation, such as for drought proofing, afforestation, drinking water, etc., which deal with the prevention and mitigation of the impact of natural disasters. External assistance for post-disaster reconstruction and streamlining of management structures also is a part of the Plan. A specific, centrally sponsored scheme on disaster management also exists. The Plan thus already has a defined
role in dealing with the subject. Recently, expert bodies have dwelt on the role of the Planning Commission and the use of plan funds in the context of disaster management. Suggestions have been made in this regard by the Eleventh Finance Commission, and also the High Powered Committee on Disaster Management. An approach on planning for safe development needs to be set out in the light of these suggestions. This chapter reflects the considerations outlined above. It briefly outlines the global context and the Indian experience of disasters, sets out the institutional and financial arrangements for disaster management and the response towards these in the country, looks at directions for improvement, and concludes with a strategy to facilitate planning for safe national development in the Tenth Plan period. The Global Context There has been an increase in the number of natural disasters over the past years, and with it, increasing losses on account of urbanisation and population growth, as a result of which the impact of natural disasters is now felt to a larger extent. According to the United Nations, in 2001 alone, natural disasters of medium to high range caused at least 25,000 deaths around the world, more than double the previous year, and economic losses of around US $ 36 billion. These figures would be much higher, if the consequences of the many smaller and unrecorded disasters that cause significant losses at the local community level were to be taken into account. Devastations in the aftermath of powerful earthquakes that struck Gujarat, El Salvador and Peru; floods that ravaged many countries in Africa, Asia and elsewhere; droughts that plagued Central Asia including Afghanistan, Africa and Central America; the cyclone in Madagascar and Orissa; and floods in Bolivia are global events in recent memory. However, what is disturbing is the knowledge that these trends of destruction and devastation are on the rise instead of being kept in check. Natural disasters are not bound by political boundaries and have no social or economic considerations. They are borderless
244
245
as they affect both developing and developed countries. They are also merciless, and as such the vulnerable tend to suffer more at the impact of natural disasters. For example, the developing countries are much more seriously affected in terms of the loss of lives, hardship borne by population and the percentage of their GNP lost. Since 1991, two-third of the victims of natural disasters were from developing countries, while just 2 per cent were from highly developed nations. Those living in developing countries and especially those with limited resources tend to be more adversely affected. With the alarming rise in the natural disasters and vulnerability per se, the world community is strengthening its efforts to cope with it. As a number of the most vulnerable regions are in India, natural disaster management has emerged as a high priority for the country. Going beyond the historical focus on relief and rehabilitation after the event, we now have to look ahead and plan for disaster preparedness and mitigation, in order that the periodic shocks to our development efforts are minimized. The Indian Experience Regional Vulnerabilities: Physical vulnerability relates to the physical location of people, their proximity to the hazard zone and standards of safety maintained to counter the effects. For instance, some people are vulnerable to flood only because they live in a flood prone area. Physical vulnerability also relates to the technical capacity of buildings and structures to resist the forces acting upon them during a hazard event. The extent to which a population is affected by a calamity does not purely lie in the physical components of vulnerability, but is contextual also to the prevailing social and economic conditions and its consequential effect on human activities within a given society. Research in areas affected by earthquakes indicates that single parent families, women, handicapped people, children and the aged are particularly vulnerable social groups. The geophysical setting with unplanned and inadequate developmental activity is a cause for increased losses during disasters. In the case of India, the contribution of over-population to high population density, which in turn results in escalating losses, deserves to be noted. This factor sometimes tends to be
as important as physical vulnerability attributed to geography and infrastructure alone. The continent of Asia is particularly vulnerable to disaster strikes. Between the years 1991 to 2000 Asia has accounted for 83 per cent of the population affected by disasters globally. While the number of people affected in the rest of the world were 1,11,159, in Asia the number was 5,54,439.Within Asia, 24 per cent of deaths due to disasters occur in India, on account of its size, population and vulnerability. Floods and high winds account for 60 per cent of all disasters in India. While substantial progress has been made in other sectors of human development, there is need to do more towards mitigating the effect of disasters. Many parts of the Indian sub-continent are susceptible to different types of disasters owing to the unique topographic and climatic characteristics. About 54 per cent of the subcontinent's landmass is vulnerable to earthquakes while about 4 crore hectares is vulnerable to periodic floods. The decade 1990-2000, has been one of very high disaster losses within the country, losses in the Orissa Cyclone in 1999, and later, the Gujarat Earthquake in 2001 alone amount to several thousand crore of Rupees, while the total expenditure on relief and reconstruction in Gujarat alone has been to the tune of Rs 11,500 crore. Similarly, the country has suffered four major earthquakes in the span of last fifty years along with a series of moderate intensity earthquakes that have occurred at regular intervals. Since 1988, six earthquakes have struck different parts of the country. These caused considerable human and property losses. Disasters lead to enormous economic losses that are both immediate as well as long term in nature and demand additional revenues. Also, as an immediate fall-out, disasters reduce revenues from the affected region due to lower levels of economic activity leading to loss of direct and indirect taxes. In addition, unplanned budgetary allocation to disaster recovery can hamper development interventions and lead to unmet developmental targets. Disasters may also reduce availability of new investment, further constricting the growth of the region. Besides, additional
246
247
pressures may be imposed on finances of the government through investments in relief and rehabilitation work. In the recent earthquake in Gujarat, more than 14,000 lives were lost, ten lakh houses were damaged and the asset loss has been indicated to be worth 15,000 crore. Tables 7.2 to 7.5 give an indication of the magnitude of the damage and losses incurred by the country in recent natural disasters. The dimensions of the damage, as evident in the tables and the diagram 7.1 emphasise the point that natural disasters cause major setbacks to development and it is the poorest and the weakest that are the most vulnerable to disasters. Given the high frequency with which one or the other part of the country suffers due to disasters, mitigating the impact of disasters must be an integral component of our development planning and be part of our poverty reduction strategy. Institutional Arrangements The country with its federal system of Government has specific roles for the Central and State Governments. However, the subject of disaster management does not specifically find mention in any of the three lists in the 7th Schedule of the Indian Constitution, where subjects under the Central and State Governments as also subjects that come under both are specified. On the legal front, there is no enactment either of the Central or of any State Government to deal with the management of disasters of various types in a comprehensive manner. The country has an integrated administrative machinery for management of disasters at the National, State, District and Sub-District levels. The basic responsibility of undertaking rescue, relief and rehabilitation measures in the event of natural disasters, as at present, is that of the State Governments concerned. The Central Government supplements the efforts of the States by providing financial and logistic support.
(i) the gravity of a natural disaster; (ii) the scale of the relief operation necessary; and (iii) the requirements of Central assistance for augmenting financial resources and logistic support at the disposal of the State Government. The Contingency Action Plan (CAP) identifies initiatives required to be taken by various Central Ministries and Public Departments in the wake of natural calamities. It sets down the procedures and determines the focal points in the administrative machinery to facilitate launching of relief and rescue operations without delay. The Ministry of Home Affairs is the nodal Ministry for coordination of relief and response and overall natural disaster management, and the Department of Agriculture & Cooperation is the nodal Ministry for drought management. Other Ministries are assigned the responsibility of providing emergency support in case of disasters that fall in their purview. The following decision-making and standing bodies are responsible for disaster management at the Central level: o Union Cabinet, headed by the Prime Minister. o Empowered Group of Ministers, headed by the Deputy Prime Minister o National Crisis Management Committee (NCMC), under the chairmanship of the Cabinet Secretary. o Crisis Management Group (CMG): under the chairmanship of the Central Relief Commissioner comprising senior officers from the various Ministries and other concerned Departments which reviews contingency plans, measures required for dealing with a natural disaster, and co-ordinates the activities of the Central Ministries and the State Governments in relation to disaster preparedness response and relief. o Technical Organizations, such as the Indian Meteorological Department (cyclone/earthquake), Central Water Commission (floods), Building Material and Technology Promotion Council (construction laws), (norms), Defence Research & Development Organization
Central Level: The dimensions of response at the level of the Central Government are determined in accordance with the existing policy of financing relief expenditure and keeping in view the factors like:
248
249
(nuclear/biological), Directorate General Civil Defence provide specific technical support to coordination of disaster response and management functions. o The setting up of a National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) is being contemplated by the Ministry of Home Affairs as the proposed apex structure within the government for the purpose. Amongst other major organizational initiatives, it is proposed to: (a) establish a specialised and earmarked response team for dealing with nuclear/biological/ chemical disasters; (b) establish search and rescue teams in each State; (c) strengthen communication systems in the North Eastern Region.
The 73rd and 74th constitutional amendments recognise Panchayati Raj Institutions as 'Institutions of self- government'. The amendment has also laid down necessary guidelines for the structure of their composition, powers, functions, devolution of finances, regular holding of elections and reservation of seats for weaker sections including women. These local bodies can be effective instruments in tackling disasters through early warning system, relief distribution, providing shelter to the victims, medical assistance etc. Other than the national, state, district and local levels, there are various institutional stakeholders who are involved in disaster management at various levels in the country. These include the police and para-military forces, civil defence and home-guards, fire services, ex-servicemen, nongovernment organisations (NGOs), public and private sector enterprises, media and HAM operators, all of whom have important roles to play.
State Government The responsibility to cope with natural disasters is essentially that of the State Government. The role of the Central Government is supportive in terms of supplementation of physical and financial resources. The Chief Secretary of the State heads a state level committee which is in overall charge of the relief operations in the State and the Relief Commissioners who are in charge of the relief and rehabilitation measures in the wake of natural disasters in their States function under the overall direction and control of the state level committee. In many states, Secretary, Department of Revenue, is also incharge of relief. State Governments usually have relief manuals and the districts have their contingency plan that is updated from time to time. District and Local Level: The district administration is the focal point for implementation of all governmental plans and activities. The actual day-to-day function of administering relief is the responsibility of the Collector/ District Magistrate/ Deputy Commissioner who exercises coordinating and supervising powers over all departments at the district level. Though it may not be a common phenomenon, there exists by and large in districts also a district level relief committee consisting of officials and non- officials.
Armed Forces
The Indian Armed Forces are supposed to be called upon to intervene and take on specific tasks only when the situation is beyond the capability of civil administration. In practice, the Armed Forces are the core of the government's response capacity and tend to be the first responders of the Government of India in a major disaster. Due to their ability to organize action in adverse ground and the resources and capabilities at their disposal, the Armed Forces have historically played a major role in emergency support functions such as communications, search and rescue operations, health and medical facilities, transportation, power, food and civil supplies, public works and engineering, especially in the immediate aftermath of disaster. Disaster management plans should incorporate the role expected of them so that the procedure for deploying them is smooth and quick.
External Linkages
The Government of India is a member of various international organisations in the field of disaster response and relief. While, as a policy, no requests for assistance or appeals
250
251
are made to the international community in the event of a disaster, assistance offered suo moto is accepted. Linkages exist with the following organisations: (a) UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA), which has been made responsible by UN General Assembly mandate for all international disaster response. (b) United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), responsible for mitigation and prevention aspects of disaster management. (c) UN Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC) System. Streamlining Institutional Arrangements for Disaster Response Institutional arrangements for disaster response are the heart of disaster management systems. There is no dearth of personnel, both civilian and military, experienced in handling situations arising out of natural disasters. However, there certainly is a pressing need for improvement and strengthening of existing institutional arrangements and systems in this regard to make the initial response to a disaster more effective and professional. Most of the resources and expertise needed already exist with the Government. What needs to be streamlined is how they should be integrated, trained and deployed. Some of the areas where improvement is urgently needed are: (a) Integrated planning for disasters, including the integration of relevant Armed Forces formations into disaster management planning at all levels from District to State and Central Government. (b) Setting up of a modern, permanent national command centre or operations room, with redundant communications and data links to all State capitals. The national command centre or operations room needs to be manned on a 24-hour basis by professionals to cater for instant integrated response. There needs to be a properly equipped operations room at the State level as well.
(c) Establishment of a national stand by, quick reaction team composed of experienced professionals, both military and civilian, drawn from Central and State Government staff to respond immediately by flying in a matter of hours an experienced response team to the locations when a disaster strikes. This team can be organized and run professionally on the same lines as the United Nations Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC) teams. (d) Creation of urban search and rescue capacity at all levels, by establishing a fully equipped Search and Rescue unit, as part of the fire service in all State capitals, with trained staff and modern equipment such as thermal imagers, acoustic detection devices etc. This is of immediate relevance since a major weakness exposed in the Gujarat earthquake was a lack of specialised urban search and rescue capability in India. e) Media policy geared to handling the growing phenomenon of real time television reporting, which generates enormous political pressures on a government to respond rapidly and efficiently. This needs attention since the effect is going to increase, not decrease in future. (f) Closer interface with and better understanding of the international system for disaster response, and putting in place, systems for dealing with international assistance once it comes in e.g., customs, immigration, foreign policy implications etc. A greater appreciation is needed of the speed and automation of modern international response to a natural disaster. Closer interaction is required between the Ministry of External Affairs and the relevant international agencies concerned with disaster response. (g) Standard procedures for dealing with domestic humanitarian and relief assistance from nongovernment sources. Procedures and systems need to be set out to avoid confusion and ensure best utilisation of the assistance being offered, just as in the case of systems for international assistance.
252
253
(h) Modern unified legislation for disaster management. In view of the current division of responsibilities between the State and Central Government into state, central and concurrent lists, there is a need to create a body of legislation dealing with response to natural disasters and other emergencies, clearly delineating responsibilities and powers of each entity and specifying what powers or actions would need to be triggered on declaration of a disaster by the Government of India or a State Government. This legislation should also incorporate the current legislation dealing with chemical emergencies that has been created by the Ministry of Environment so that all emergencies are dealt with under one law. The legislation should include clear definitions of what constitutes a disaster at a national level.
FINANCIAL ARRANGEMENTS
Financing of Relief Expenditures: The policy arrangements for meeting relief expenditure related to natural disasters are, by and large, based on the recommendations of successive finance commissions. The two main windows presently open for meeting such expenditures are the Calamity Relief Fund (CRF) and National Calamity Contingency Fund (NCCF). The Calamity Relief Fund is used for meeting the expenditure for providing immediate relief to the victims of cyclone, drought, earthquake, fire, flood and hailstorm.
Expenditure on restoration of damaged capital works should ordinarily be met from the normal budgetary heads, except when it is to be incurred as part of providing immediate relief, such as restoration of drinking water sources or provision of shelters etc., or restoration of communication links for facilitating relief operations. The amount of annual contribution to the CRF of each State for each of the financial years 200001 to 2004-05 is as indicated by the Finance Commission. Of the total contribution indicated, the Government of India contributes 75 per cent of the total yearly allocation in the form of a non-plan grant, and the balance amount is contributed by the State Government concerned. A total of Rs. 11,007.59 crore
was provided for the Calamity Relief Fund from 2000-05. Pursuant to the recommendations of the Eleventh Finance Commission, apart from the CRF, a National Calamity Contingency Fund (NCCF) Scheme came into force with effect from the financial year 2000-01 and would be operative till the end of the financial year 2004-05. NCCF is intended to cover natural calamities like cyclone, drought, earthquake, fire, flood and hailstorm, which are considered to be of severe nature requiring expenditure by the State Government in excess of the balances available in its own Calamity Relief Fund. The assistance from NCCF is available only for immediate relief and rehabilitation. Any reconstruction of assets or restoration of damaged capital should be financed through re-allocation of Plan funds. There is need for defining the arrangements in this regard. The initial corpus of the National Fund is Rs.500 crore, provided by the Government of India. This fund is required to be recouped by levy of special surcharge for a limited period on central taxes. An amount of about Rs.2,300 crore has already been released to States from NCCF. A list of items and norms of expenditure for assistance chargeable to CRF/NCCF in the wake of natural calamities is prescribed in detail from time to time.
Financing of Disaster Management Through Five Year Plans Although not specifically addressed in Five Year Plan documents in the past, the Government of India has a long history of using funds from the Plan for mitigating natural disasters. Funds are provided under Plan schemes i.e., various schemes of Government of India, such as for drinking water, employment generation, inputs for agriculture and flood control measures etc. There are also facilities for rescheduling shortterm loans taken for agriculture purposes upon certification by the District/ State administration. Central Government's assets/ infrastructure are to be repaired/rectified by the respective Ministry/Department of Government of India. Besides this, at the occurrence of a calamity of great magnitude, funds flow from donors, both local and international, for relief and rehabilitation, and in few cases for long-term preparedness/
254
255
preventive measures. Funds for the latter purposes are also available from multilateral funding agencies such as the World Bank. These form part of the State Plan. There are also a number of important ongoing schemes that specifically help reduce disaster vulnerability. Some of these are: Integrated Wasteland Development Programme (IWDP), Drought Prone Area Programme (DPAP), Desert Development Programme (DDP), Flood Control Programmes, National Afforestation & Ecodevelopment Programme (NA&ED), Accelerated Rural Water Supply Programme (ARWSP), Crop Insurance, Sampurn Grameen Rozgar Yojana (SGRY), Food for Work etc. Initiatives Proposed by Various Bodies Regarding Financing Under the Plan References have recently been made to the role of the Plan in disaster management by the High Power Committee (HPC) on Disaster Management, as well as by the Eleventh Finance Commission. The HPC was constituted in 1999 and submitted its Report in October 2001. The HPC took an overview of all recent disasters (natural as well as manmade) in the country and identified common response and preparedness mechanisms on the basis of a series of consultations with a number of government, non-government, national and international agencies and media organisations. An important recommendation of the Committee was that at least 10 per cent of plan funds at the national, state and district levels be earmarked and apportioned for schemes which specifically address areas such as prevention, reduction, preparedness and mitigation of disasters. The Eleventh Finance Commission too paid detailed attention to the issue of disaster management and, in its chapter on calamity relief, came out with a number of recommendations, of which the following have a direct bearing on the Plan: (a) Expenditure on restoration of infrastructure and other capital assets, except those that are intrinsically connected with relief operations and connectivity with the affected area and population, should be met from the plan funds on priority basis. (b) Medium and long-term measures be devised by the concerned Ministries of the Government of India, the
State Governments and the Planning Commission to reduce, and if possible, eliminate, the occurrences of these calamities by undertaking developmental works. (c) The Planning Commission, in consultation with the State Governments and concerned Ministries, should be able to identify works of a capital nature to prevent the recurrence of specific calamities. These works may be funded under the Plan. Planning for Safe National Development Development programmes that go into promoting development at the local level have been left to the general exercise of planning. Measures need also to be taken to integrate disaster mitigation efforts at the local level with the general exercise of planning, and a more supportive environment created for initiatives towards managing of disasters at all levels: national, state, district and local. The future blue-print for disaster management in India rests on the premise that in today's society while hazards, both natural or otherwise, are inevitable, the disasters that follow need not be so and the society can be prepared to cope with them effectively whenever they occur. The need of the hour is to chalk out a multi-pronged strategy for total risk management, comprising prevention, preparedness, response and recovery on the one hand, and initiate development efforts aimed towards risk reduction and mitigation, on the other. Only then can we look forward to "sustainable development." Disaster Prevention And Preparedness Information and Research Network Measures
Disaster prevention is intrinsically linked to preventive planning. Some of the important steps in this regard are: (a) Introduction of a comprehensive process of vulnerability analysis and objective risk assessment. (b) Building a robust and sound information database: A comprehensive database of the land use, demography, infrastructure developed at the national, state and local levels along with current information on climate, weather and man-made structures is crucial in planning, warning
256
257
and assessment of disasters. In addition, resource inventories of governmental and nongovernmental systems including personnel and equipment help in efficient mobilisation and optimisation of response measures. (c) Creating state-of-the-art infrastructure: The entire disaster mitigation game plan must necessarily be anchored to frontline research and development in a holistic mode. State-of-the art technologies available worldwide need to be made available in India for upgradation of the disaster management system; at the same time, dedicated research activities should be encouraged, in all frontier areas related to disasters like biological, space applications, information technology, nuclear radiation etc., for a continuous flow of high quality basic information for sound disaster management planning, (d) Establishing Linkages between all knowledge- based institutions: A National Disaster Knowledge Network, tuned to the felt needs of a multitude of users like disaster managers, decision makers, community etc., must be developed as the network of networks to cover natural, manmade and biological disasters in all their varied dimensions,
Capacity Building, Training & Education Personnel involved in the exercise have to draw upon knowledge of best practices and resources available to them. Information and training on ways to better respond to and mitigate disasters to the responders go a long way in building the capacity and resilience of the country to reduce and prevent disasters. Training is an integral part of capacity building as trained personnel respond much better to different disasters and appreciate the need for preventive measures. The directions in this regard are: (a) The multi-sectoral and multi-hazard prevention based approach to disaster management requires specific professional inputs. Professional training in disaster management should be built into the existing pedagogic
research and education. Specialised courses for disaster management may be developed by universities and professional teaching institutions, and disaster management should be treated as a distinct academic and professional discipline, something that the American education system has done successfully. In addition to separate diploma/degree courses in disaster management, the subject needs to be discussed and taught as a specific component in professional and specialised courses like medicine, nursing, engineering, environmental sciences, architecture, and town and country planning. (b) The focus towards preventive disaster management and development of a national ethos of prevention calls for an awareness generation at all levels. An appropriate component of disaster awareness at the school level will help increase awareness among children and, in many cases, parents and other family members through these children. Curriculum development with a focus towards dissemination of disaster related information on a sustained basis, covering junior, middle and high schools may be worked out by the different school boards in the country. (c) Training facilities for government personnel involved in disaster management are conducted at the national level by the National Centre for Disaster Management (NCDM) at the Indian Institute of Public Administration, in New Delhi which functions as the nodal institution in the country for training, research and documentation of disasters. At the State level, disaster management cells operating within the State Administrative Training Institutes (ATIs) provide the necessary training. Presently, 24 ATIs have dedicated faculties. There is a need for strengthening specialised training, including training of personnel in disaster response. (d) Capacity building should not be limited to professionals and personnel involved in disaster management but should also focus on building the knowledge, attitude and skills of a community to cope with the effects of
258
259
disasters. Identification and training of volunteers from the community towards first response measures as well as mitigation measures is an urgent imperative. A programme of periodic drills should be introduced in vulnerable areas to enable prompt and appropriate community response in the event of a disaster, which can help save valuable lives. Capacity building for effective disaster management therefore needs to be grounded and linked to the community and local level responders on the one hand and also to the institutional mechanism of the State and the Nation on the other.
as also an effort from the government machinery to buttress and support popular initiatives.
Community Level Initiatives The goal of any disaster management initiative is to build a disaster resistant/resilient community equipped with safer living and sustainable livelihoods to serve its own development purposes. The community is also the first responder in any disaster situation, thereby emphasising the need for community level initiatives in managing disasters. To encourage such initiatives, the following are required: (a) Creating awareness through disaster education and training and information dissemination are necessary steps for empowering the community to cope with disasters. (b) Community based approach followed by most NGOs and Community Based Organisations (CBOs) should be incorporated in the disaster management system as an effective vehicle of community participation. (c) Within a vulnerable community, there exist groups that are more vulnerable like women and children, aged and infirm and physically challenged people who need special care and attention especially during disaster situations. Efforts are required for identifying such vulnerable groups and providing special assistance in terms of evacuation, relief, aid and medical attention to them in disaster situations. Management of disasters should therefore be an interface between a community effort to mitigate and prevent disasters
Strengthening of Plan Activities Given the pervasive nature of disasters and the widespread havoc caused by some of them, planned expenditure on disaster mitigation and prevention measures in addition to the CRF is required. The Central Sector Scheme of Natural Disaster Management Programmes has been implemented since 199394 by the Department of Agriculture and Co-operation with the objective to focus on disaster preparedness with emphasis on mitigation and preparedness measures for enhanced capability to reduce the adverse impact of disasters. The major activities undertaken within this scheme include the setting up of the National Centre for Disaster Management (NCDM) at the Indian Institute of Public Administration, creation of 24 disaster management faculties in 23 states, research and consultancy services, documentation of major disaster events and forging regional cooperation. The Eighth Plan allocation of Rs 6.30 crore for this scheme was increased to Rs. 16.32 crore in the Ninth Plan. Within this scheme, NCDM has conducted over 50 training programmes, training more than 1000 people, while 24 disaster management centres with dedicated faculty have been established in the states. Over 4000 people have been trained at the State level. In addition, some important publications and audio-visual training modules have been prepared and documentation of disaster events has been done.
Though limited in scope and outlays, the Scheme has made an impact on the training and research activities in the country. Creation of faculties in disaster management in all 28 states is proposed to be taken up in the Tenth Plan in addition to community mobilisation, human resource development, establishment of Control Rooms and forging international cooperation in disaster management. There is also an urgent need for strengthening the disaster management pedagogy by creating disaster management faculties in universities, rural development institutes and other organisations of premier research. Sustainability is the key word in the development process. Development activities that do not consider the disaster
260
Bibliography
261
loss perspective fail to be sustainable. The compounded costs of disasters relating to loss of life, loss of assets, economic activities, and cost of reconstruction of not only assets but of lives can scarcely be borne by any community or nation. Therefore, all development schemes in vulnerable areas should include a disaster mitigation analysis, whereby the feasibility of a project is assessed with respect to vulnerability of the area and the mitigation measures required for sustainability. Environmental protection, afforestation programmes, pollution control, construction of earthquake resistant structures etc., should therefore have high priority within the plans. The aim of a mitigation strategy is to reduce losses in the event of a future occurrence of a hazard. Structural mitigation may comprise construction of individual disaster resistant structures like retrofitted or earthquake-resistant buildings or creation of structures whose function is primarily disaster protection like flood control structures, dykes, levees, infiltration dams etc. Mitigation measures on individual structures can be achieved by design standards, building codes and performance specifications. Building codes, critical front-line defence for achieving stronger engineered structures, need to be drawn up in accordance with the vulnerability of the area and implemented through appropriate techno-legal measures. Mitigation measures need to be considered in land use and site planning activities. Constructions in hazardous areas like flood plains or steep soft slopes are more vulnerable to disasters. Necessary mitigation measures need to be built into the design and costing of development projects. Insurance is a potentially important mitigation measure in disaster-prone areas as it brings quality in the infrastructure & consciousness and a culture of safety by its insistence on following building codes, norms, guidelines, quality materials in construction etc. Disaster insurance mostly works under the premise of 'higher the risk higher the premium, lesser the risk lesser the premium', thus creating awareness towards vulnerable areas and motivating people to settle in relatively safer areas.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Ben Wisner : At Risk, Natural Hazards, Peoples Vulnerability, and Disasters, London, Routledge, 1994. Brian Lesser : Disaster Preparedness and Recovery: Photographic Materials, American Archivist, Winter, 1983. Cronon, William :Uncommon Ground: Toward Reinventing Nature, New York, WW Norton and Co., 1995. Davis, Mike : Ecology of Fear, New York, Metropolitan Books, 1998. Dufka, Corrine : The Mexico City Earthquake Disaster, Social Casework: The Journal of Contemporary Social Work, 1988. Fox, Lisa L. : Management Strategies for Disaster Preparedness, Chicago, American Library Association, 1989. Greene, Mott : Natural Knowledge in Preclassical Antiquity, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1992. Hadfield, Peter : Sixty Seconds that Will Change the World: The Coming Tokyo Earthquake, Boston, C.E. Tutle, Co., 1992. Jane A. Bullock : Introduction to Emergency Management, Amsterdam, Butterworth-Heinemann, 2003. John D. : The Last Great Subsistence Crisis in the Western World, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1977. Jones S. : Building an Emergency Plan: A Guide for Museums and other Cultural Institutions, Getty Conservation Institute, Los Angeles, 1999 Jordan, William : The Great Famine, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1996. Kahn, Miriam B. : Disaster Response and Planning for Libraries, Chicago, American Library Association, 1998. Keyes K.E. : Emergency Management for Records and Information Programs, ARMA International, Kansas, 1997.
262
Index
263
Laskin, David : Braving the Elements: The Stormy History of American Weather, New York, Doubleday, 1996. McPhee, John : The Control of Nature, New York, Farrar, Straus, Giroux, 1989. Norris, Debra Hess : Disaster Recovery: Salvaging Photograph Collections, Philadelphia, PA, 1998. Odum, Howard T. : Environment, Power and Society, New York, Wiley-Interscience, 1971. Quarantelli, E.L. : What is a DisasterPerspectives on the Question, New York, Routledge, 1998. Robert A. : Insurance for Libraries: Part I and Insurance for Libraries: Part II, Conservation Administration News, 1994. Saffady, William : Managing Vital Electronic Records, ARMA International, Kansas, 1992. Stephen Reyna : The Political Economy of African Famine, Philadelphia, Gordon and Breach Science Publishers, 1991 Stommel, Elizabeth : Volcano Weather: The Story of 1816, The Year Without a Summer, Newport, Seven Seas Press, 1983. Thomas A. : Integrated Pest Management for Libraries, IFLA Publications 40/41, Munich, K. G. Saur Verlag, 1987. Varley, Anne : Disaster, Development Environments, New York, J. Wiley, 1994. Walker, Bridget : Women and Emergencies, Oxford, Oxfam, l994. Watson, Lyall : Earthwork: Essays on the Edge of Natural History, London, Hodder and Stoughton, 1956. Webster, Noah : A Brief History of Epidemic and Pestilential Diseases, with the Principle Phenomena of the Physical World which Proceed and Accompany Them, Hartford, Hudson and Goodwin, 1799. Worster, Donald : Dust Bowl: The Southern Plains in the 1930s, New York, Oxford University Press, 1979. Zenaida, D. : Women and Children During Disaster: Vulnerabilities and Capacities, Elaine Enarson and Betty Hearn Morrow, 1995.
INDEX
A
Achievement, 54, 61, 225, 235. Applications, 8, 90, 201, 202, 206, 256. Arrangements, 16, 67, 75, 92, 162, 180, 182, 243, 246, 250, 252, 253. 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 71, 79, 80, 90, 91, 94, 117, 119, 122, 124, 126, 127, 129, 132, 133, 134, 135, 138, 146, 152, 153, 156, 161, 165, 178, 181, 187, 189, 193, 214, 215, 221, 222, 230, 233, 234, 242, 245, 246, 247, 251, 252, 253, 260.
C
Committees, 134. Communication, 5, 6, 7, 11, 79, 81, 93, 118, 120, 121, 180, 181, 182, 183, 185, 187, 188, 190, 191, 192, 197, 198, 200, 201, 203, 230, 248, 252. Construction, 3, 13, 14, 59, 63, 69, 72, 158, 165, 166, 234, 235, 238, 240, 247, 260. Corporate Sector, 211, 212, 213, 214, 216, 217, 218, 219, 220, 221, 222, 224, 225, 228, 229, 231, 234, 235, 237, 238, 239, 240, 241.
F
Fire Prevention, 86, 88, 89. Fire prevention, 79, 87.
G
Government, 8, 9, 12, 14, 15, 16, 59, 60, 61, 67, 74, 76, 89, 91, 92, 94, 116, 125, 127, 129, 130, 131, 133, 136, 137, 138, 140, 141, 142, 143, 144, 145, 146, 147, 149, 150, 151, 153, 154, 159, 167, 168, 170, 179, 184, 188, 212, 213, 214, 220, 225, 228, 230, 232, 233, 234, 240, 241, 246, 247, 248, 249, 250, 251, 252, 253, 254, 257, 259.
D
Dimensions, 72, 136, 246, 256.
E
Earthquake, 1, 2, 4, 13, 18, 19, 20, 28, 30, 31, 32, 37, 39, 40, 42, 5, 22, 34, 43, 10, 27, 36, 44,
H
Hazards, 10, 44, 63, 1, 12, 54, 64, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 19, 27, 34, 35, 55, 56, 57, 58, 65, 67, 68, 69,
264 70, 71, 72, 73, 76, 120, 122, 125, 128, 142, 145, 149, 150, 202, 211, 212, 222, 224, 225, 226, 228, 232, 234, 235, 237, 119, 129, 152, 223, 229, 255.

Organisations, 13, 15, 16, 17, 100, 105, 189, 192, 195, 251, 260.
265
P
Policy, 26, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 61, 62, 65, 67, 87, 89, 96, 117, 132, 149, 186, 197, 234, 246, 249, 251, 252. Project, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 93, 118, 130, 157, 196, 205, 260.
I
Implementation, 10, 12, 55, 56, 59, 61, 74, 84, 92, 95, 167, 195, 203, 210, 215, 225, 229, 234, 237, 239, 248. Integration System, 209.
CONTENTS
Preface
1. Introduction 2. Disaster Risk Management Policy 3. Rescue Methods in Disasters 4. Losses of Natural Disasters 5. Disaster Management Information System 6. Role of the Corporate Sector 7. The Developmental Perspective 1 53 99 122 189 211 242 261 263
M
Mechanisms, 60, 62, 72, 115, 160, 188, 190, 191, 201, 213, 231, 232, 233, 234, 237, 254.
R
Risk Management, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 60, 61, 65, 68, 75, 93, 213, 214, 216, 217, 218, 219, 224, 225, 231, 233, 236, 238, 239, 241, 255.
N
Natural Disasters, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 19, 52, 85, 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 126, 128, 129, 130, 131, 134, 135, 136, 137, 138, 140, 141, 144, 145, 146, 150, 151, 152, 156, 157, 159, 161, 162, 163, 164, 165, 166, 167, 169, 170, 172, 174, 180, 181, 191, 194, 202, 203, 205, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 220, 221, 222, 223, 224, 233, 235, 244, 245, 246, 248, 249, 250, 251, 252, 254, 256.
S
Society, 1, 2, 7, 8, 35, 54, 55, 56, 63, 64, 65, 71, 77, 80, 88, 90, 91, 94, 114, 121, 180, 181, 182, 183, 184, 185, 187, 188, 190, 192, 202, 212, 216, 217, 218, 222, 241, 244, 255.
Bibliography Index
T
Technology, 4, 5, 7, 27, 64, 65, 73, 89, 90, 114, 115, 116, 117, 119, 121, 165, 190, 192, 195, 196, 199, 200, 201, 229, 240, 247, 256. Tsunami, 1, 22, 23, 200, 219, 241.
O
Observation, 5, 7, 121, 131, 156, 194, 195, 196, 198, 207, 209, 210.
NATURAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT

Introduction to Natural Disasters

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Introduction to Natural Disasters

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Introduction

Natural Disaster Management

Heat waves Mud slides Storm

Natural Disasters Flood Cyclone Drought Earthquake

Minor Natural Disasters Cold wave Thunderstorms

Natural Disaster Management

Natural Disaster Management

Natural Disaster Management

Table 1. Applications of Space Remote Sensing in Disaster Management

Locate stricken areas, map damage

Detec tio n/measurement of gaseo us emissio ns

Rainfall, slo pe stability

damage Mapping slide area

Flash floods Major floods Storm surge Hurricanes Tornadoes Drought

Map flood damage

A graphic representation of the four phases in emergency management.

Natural Disaster Management

Natural Disaster Management

Natural Disaster Management

Natural Disaster Management

Natural Disaster Management

Natural Disaster Management

Natural Disaster Management

Natural Disaster Management

Natural Disaster Management

Fact Sheet 01: Frequency of Occurrence of Earthquakes

Based on observations since 1900. Based on observations since 1990.

Natural Disaster Management

29 178.50 -175.39 96.5 149.6 131.62 -70.50

Fact Sheet 02: Year-wise description of Earthquakes

Fact Sheet 05: List of Some Significant Earthquakes in India

Epicenter Location Lat(Deg N) Long (Deg E)

31419 * 31199* 21390 33819 284010 1957

Estimated Deaths 231

Fact Sheet 03: Largest Earthquakes in the World Since 1900

Chile Prince William Sound, Alaska

9.0 9.0 8.8 8.7

3.30 52.76 1.0 2.08

95.78 160.06 -81.5 97.01

Northern Sumatra, Indonesia 2005 03 28

Fact Sheet 04: Largest and Deadliest Earthquakes by Year 19902005

Largest Earthquakes Date Magnitude Fatalities Region

Deadliest Earthquake Date Magnitude Fatalities Region

Natural Disaster Management

South of Fiji Islands 05/10 7.3 Near East Coast of Kamchatka

Largest Earthquakes Date Magnitude Fatalities Region

Deadliest Earthquake Date Magnitude Fatalities Region

8.0 8.0 10/04 8.3

Flores Region, Indonesia Northern India

Natural Disaster Management

Natural Disaster Management

Natural Disaster Management

Natural Disaster Management

Natural Disaster Management

Natural Disaster Management

Natural Disaster Management

Question: What do we know about the interior of the Earth? Answer:

Natural Disaster Management

Natural Disaster Management

Natural Disaster Management

Natural Disaster Management

Disaster Risk Management Policy

Natural Disaster Management