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OUTLINE FOR REPORT GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE A. DEFINITIONS A.

1 Global Warming Refers to the recent and ongoing rise in global average temperature near Earth's surface. It is caused mostly by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. We will understand better greenhouse gases in a while. Causing climate patterns to change. However, global warming itself represents only one aspect of climate change. Rising global temperatures have been accompanied by changes in weather and climate. Note: Weather refers to the conditions at one particular time and place, and can change from hour to hour, day to day, and season to season. Climate, on the other hand, refers to the longterm average pattern of weather in a place a. How does Global Warming work? Before anything else, we must first understand the Greenhouse Effect. When the suns radiation/rays reaches our atmosphere, some is reflected back into space (30% is reflected into space by clouds, snow fields and other reflective surfaces) and some passes through and is absorbed by the Earth (70% of the energy stays on the planet, absorbed by land, oceans, plants and other things). This causes the surface of the Earth to warm up. (Greenhouse effect) (70% that gets through doesn't stay on earth forever (otherwise the Earth would become a blazing fireball) Heat from the earth is radiated outward and absorbed by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This process prevents heat from disappearing into space and keeps Earth warm enough to sustain life. (15 degCelsius, w/o GHE, -18 degCelsius) The Earth's oceans and land masses eventually radiate heat back out. Some of this heat makes it into space. The rest of it ends up getting absorbed when it hits certain things in the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide, methane gas and water vapor. After these components in our atmosphere absorb all this heat, they emit energy (also in the form of heat). The heat that doesn't make it out through Earth's atmosphere keeps the planet warmer than it is in outer space, because more energy is coming in through the atmosphere than is going out. This is all part of the greenhouse effect that keeps the Earth warm. (Greenhouse Gases and GW) Some human activities (primarily the burning of fossil fuels) intensify the warming effect by releasing the additional greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. ILLUSTRATION Think of the Earth sort of like your car sitting out in a parking lot on a sunny day. You've probably noticed that your car is always much hotter inside than the outside temperature if it's been sitting there for a while. The sun's rays enter through your car's windows. Some of the heat from the sun is absorbed by the seats, the dashboard and the carpeting and floor mats. When those objects release this heat, it doesn't all get out through the windows. Some is reflected back in. The heat radiated by the seats is a different wavelength than the light of the sun that made it through the windows in the first place. So a certain amount of energy is going in, and less energy is going out. The result is a gradual increase in the temperature inside your car. A.2 Climate Change Any significant change in the measures of climate lasting for an extended period of time. Climate change includes major changes in temperature, precipitation, or wind patterns, among other effects, that occur over several decades or longer.

CLIMATE CHANGE OR GLOBAL WARMING? WWF or World Wildlife fund The terms climate change and global warming are often used interchangeably. Generally WWF use the more scientifically accurate term "climate change" According to NASA or National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) "Global warming refers to surface temperature increases, while climate change includes global warming and everything else that increasing greenhouse gas amounts will affect." Temperature change itself isn't the most severe effect of changing climate. Changes to precipitation patterns and sea level are likely to have much greater human impact than the higher temperatures alone. For this reason, scientific research on climate change encompasses far more than surface temperature change. So "global climate change" is the more scientifically accurate term. B. FACTS Yes, it is happening. These are just some of the facts (compiled by National Geographic Site) that prove that climate change or global warming is happening. Note: Fact 1 was obtained from NASAs Goddard Institute for Space Studies C. CAUSES C.1 Global Emissions by Gas The pollutants that contribute to global warming are commonly known as greenhouse gas emissions. A pollutant is a substance or energy introduced into the environment that has undesired effects, or adversely affects the usefulness of a resource. a. Carbon Dioxide (53%) Accounts for about 380 of every molecules (ppm or parts per million. It is generally used to measure and denote the concentration of chemical in very low quantity) in the air, and it stays in the atmosphere for at least 100 years. Despite being relatively weak greenhouse gas, so much CO2 has been emitted since pre-industrial times that it has had the largest impact on the enhanced greenhouse effect. CO2 is produced primarily by burning fossil fuels in cars, power plants, and industry, and emissions continue to increase each year. Plants and trees absorb CO2, so widespread loss of forests also affects atmospheric CO2 concentrations. E.G. (Cars, Factories, Deforestation) b. Methane (17%) Makes up less than two of every million molecules in the air and stays in our atmosphere for only about ten years, yet one of these molecules traps 20 to 25 times more energy in that decade than a CO2 molecule does in a century. Methane is emitted when fossil fuels are produced. It also comes from livestock, decomposing waste, and some agriculture. E.G. (Factories, Waste Dumps, Livestock, Rice Paddies). A potent (powerful) greenhouse gas and is even more effective at trapping heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide. Comes from a number of human sources, including coal mining, landfills, natural gas and petroleum production, wastewater treatment and even rice cultivation. Livestock also emit methane, leading skeptics to joke about regulating cow flatulence Like cattle, wild animals like bison and buffalo also emit methane, although the vast majority of methane in all ruminants is expelled in the form of belching (burping). Among domesticated livestock, ruminant animals (cattle, buffalo, sheep, goats, and camels) produce significant amounts of methane as part of their normal digestive processes. In the rumen, or large fore-stomach, of these animals, microbial fermentation converts feed into products that can be digested and utilized by the animal. This microbial fermentation process, referred to as enteric fermentation, produces methane as a by-product, which can be exhaled by the animal.

Because of their special digestive systems, they can convert otherwise unusable plant materials into nutritious food and fiber. This same helpful digestive system, however, produces methane, a potent greenhouse gas that can contribute to global climate change. c. Nitrous Oxide (12%) Accounts for only about 300 of every billion molecules in our air, but is about 300 times more powerful (molecule for molecule) than CO2 at enhancing the greenhouse effect. It also lasts for about 100 years in the atmosphere. The primary source of N2O is crop fertilization and other agricultural activities. Its also emitted when fossil fuels are burned and during sewage treatment. E.G. (Factories, Cars) d. Fluorinated Gases (18%) Some greenhouse gases such as the chlorofluorocarbons found in coolants are emitted in much smaller amounts but are thousands of times more powerful than CO2. Other sources of these potent gases include perfluorocarbons from aluminum smelting and hydrochlorofluorocarbons from refrigeration and aerosol sprays. Unlike many other greenhouse gases, fluorinated gases have no natural sources and only come from human-related activities. They are emitted through a variety of industrial processes such as aluminum and semiconductor manufacturing. Many fluorinated gases have very high global warming potentials (GWPs) relative to other greenhouse gases, so small atmospheric concentrations can have large effects on global temperatures. - Hydrofluorocarbons Hydrofluorocarbons are used as refrigerants, aerosol propellants, solvents, and fire retardants. The major emissions source of these compounds is their use as refrigerants--for example, in air conditioning systems in both vehicles and buildings. These chemicals were developed as a replacement for chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) because they do not deplete the stratospheric ozone layer. Chlorofluorocarbons and HCFCs are being phased out under an international agreement, called the Montreal Protocol. Unfortunately, HFCs are potent greenhouse gases with long atmospheric lifetimes and high GWPs, and they are released into the atmosphere through leaks, servicing, and disposal of equipment in which they are used. - Perfluorocarbons Perfluorocarbons are compounds produced as a by-product of various industrial processes associated with aluminum production and the manufacturing of semiconductors. Like HFCs, PFCs generally have long atmospheric lifetimes and high GWPs. Sulfur hexafluoride is used in magnesium processing and semiconductor manufacturing, as well as a tracer gas for leak detection. HFC-23 is produced as a by-product of HCFC-22 production. - Sulfur hexafluoride Sulfur hexafluoride is used in electrical transmission equipment, including circuit breakers. The GWP of SF6 is 23,900, making it the most potent greenhouse gases that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has evaluated.

NOTE: Global-warming potential (GWP) is a relative measure of how much heat a greenhouse gas traps in the atmosphere. It compares the amount of heat trapped by a certain mass of the gas in question to the amount of heat trapped by a similar mass of carbon dioxide. A GWP is calculated over a specific time interval, commonly 20, 100 or 500 years. GWP is expressed as a factor of carbon dioxide (whose GWP is standardized to 1). For example, the 20 year GWP of methane is 72, which means that if the same mass of methane and carbon dioxide were introduced into the atmosphere, that methane will trap 72 times more heat than the carbon dioxide over the next 20 years.

C.2 Global Emissions by Source Energy Supply (26% of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) - The burning of coal, natural gas, and oil for electricity and heat is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions. Industry (19% of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) - Greenhouse gas emissions from industry primarily involve fossil fuels burned on-site at facilities for energy. This sector also includes emissions from chemical, metallurgical, and mineral transformation processes not associated with energy consumption. (Note: Emissions from electricity use are excluded and are instead covered in the Energy Supply sector.) Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (17% of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) Greenhouse gas emissions from this sector primarily include carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions from deforestation, land clearing for agriculture, and fires or decay of peat soils. This estimate does not include the CO2 that ecosystems remove from the atmosphere. The amount of CO2 that is removed is subject to large uncertainty, although recent estimates indicate that on a global scale, ecosystems on [2] land remove about twice as much CO2 as is lost by deforestation. Agriculture (14% of 2004 GHG emissions) - global greenhouse gas emissions) - Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture mostly come from the management of agricultural soils, livestock, rice production, and biomass burning. Transportation (13% of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) - Greenhouse gas emissions from this sector primarily involve fossil fuels burned for road, rail, air, and marine transportation. Almost all (95%) of the world's transportation energy comes from petroleum-based fuels, largely gasoline and diesel. Commercial and Residential Buildings (8% of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) - Greenhouse gas emissions from this sector arise from on-site energy generation and burning fuels for heat in buildings or cooking in homes. (Note: Emissions from electricity use are excluded and are instead covered in the Energy Supply sector.) Waste and Wastewater (3% of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) - The largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in this sector is landfill methane (CH4), followed by wastewater methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Incineration of some waste products that were made with fossil fuels, such as plastics and synthetic textiles, also results in minor emissions of CO 2. D. EFFECTS Freshwater Resources Decreased Snowpack (More winter flooding, and reduced flows of water in the summerexacerbating competition for over-allocated water resources) Water Shortages (It is projected that by mid-century, climate change will reduce water resources in many small islands, including those in the Caribbean and Pacific Ocean, where the water sources become insufficient to meet demand during periods of low rainfall) Changes in Precipitation (Patterns and disappearance of glaciers are projected to significantly affect water availability for human consumption, agriculture, and energy generation across Latin America) Drought (It is projected that by 2020, between 75 and 250 million people in Africa will be experiencing stresses on their water supplies) Receding Glaciers (Within the next 20 to 30 years, it's projected that Himalayan glacier melt will increase flooding, cause rock avalanches, and affect water resources in Asia. This would be followed by decreased river flow as the glaciers continue to recede. Freshwater availability in many parts of Asia is expected to decrease, potentially affecting more than a billion people by the 2050s) Ecosystems Species Extinction (By the middle of this century, savanna is expected to gradually replace tropical forest in eastern Amazonia, due to increases in temperature and decreases in soil water. There is a risk of significant biodiversity loss through species extinction in many areas of tropical Latin America)

Species Losses (The great majority of organisms and ecosystems in Europe are predicted to experience difficulties adapting to climate change. Mountainous areas will face extensive species losses-up to 60% in some areas by 2080 if emissions are high) Reductions of Sea Ice (It's predicted that the Polar Regions will experience reductions in the thickness and extent of glaciers and ice sheets. Changes in natural ecosystems will have detrimental effects on many organisms including migratory birds, mammals, and higher predators. In the Arctic, additional impacts include reductions in the extent of sea ice and permafrost, increased coastal erosion, and an increase in the depth of seasonal permafrost thawing) Loss of Biodiversity (Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically-rich Australian and New Zealand sites, including the Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics. Other sites at risk include the Kakadu wetlands, Southwest Australia, sub-Antarctic islands, and the alpine areas of both countries) Food and Forests Increasing Yields (In North America, moderate climate change in the early decades of the century is projected to increase yields of rain-fed agriculture by five to 20 percent, but this will vary among regions. Major challenges are projected for crops that are near the warm end of their range or depend on highly-utilized water resources) Reduced Growing Seasons (Agricultural production in many African countries and regions is expected to be severely compromised by climate change. The area suitable for crops, the length of growing seasons, and the amount of food produced are all expected to decline. In some African countries, yields from raid-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020) Changing Yields (By the mid-21st century, crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and Southeast Asia, while decreasing up to 30% in Central and South Asia. The risk of hunger is projected to remain very high in several developing countries.) Changing Forests (Due to increase drought and fire, agriculture and forestry production is projected to decline over much of Southern and Eastern Australia, and over parts of Eastern New Zealand by 2030. Yet initial agriculture and forestry benefits are projcted in Western and Southern New Zealand and in areas close to major rivers due to a longer growing season, less frost and increased rainfall) Coastal Areas Severe Storms (North American Coastal communities and habitats will be increasingly stressed by the interaction of climate change impacts with development and pollution. Population growth and the rising value of infrastructure in coastal areas increase vulnerability-with losses projected to increase if the intensity of tropical storms increases) Rising Sea Levels (Erosion of beaches, coral bleaching, and other deterioration in small islands' coasts is expected to affect local fisheries and reduce the value of these destination for tourism. Sea-level rise is expected to exacerbate storm surge, erosion, and other coastal hazards, threatening vital infrastructure and facilities that support the livelihood of island communities) Flooding (Sea-level rise is projected to cause increased risk of flooding in low-lying areas of Latin America. Increases in sea-surface temperature due to climate change are projected to have adverse effects on Mesoamerican coral reefs, and cause shifts in the location of Southeast Pacific fish stocks) Population At Risk (Towards the end of the 21st Century, projected sea -level rise will affect lowlying African coastal areas with large populations. The cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5 to 10% of gross domestic product. Fisheries and tourism will also be affected as mangroves and coral reefs are projected to be further degraded) Industry and Society Threatened Cultures (For Arctic human communities, impacts resulting from changing snow and ice conditions are projected to be mixed. While reduced heating costs and more navigable northern sea routes could benefit the region, some traditional ways of life are being threatened

and substantial investments are needed to adapt or re-locate physical structures and communities) Reduced Tourism (Nearly all European regions are expected to be negatively affected by some future impacts of climate change, posing challenges to many economic sectors. Mountainous areas will face reduced snow cover and winter tourism, while southern areas will see decreased summer tourism. In southern Europe, reduced water availability is expected to reduce the potential for hydroelectric power) Unsustainable Development (Climate change is projected to impinge on sustainable developing Asian countries. The changes compound pressures on natural resources and the environment associated with rapid urbanization, industrialization, and economic development)

Health Heat Waves (In Southern, Central and Eastern Europe, health risks due to heat waves are projected to increase) Changing Range of Disease (Climate change is expected to have mixed effects on the range and transmission potential of malaria in Africa) Increased Disease (Illnesses and deaths due to diarrheal disease are expected to rise in South and East Asia due to increases in floods and droughts. Rising coastal water temperatures could exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of cholera -a water-borne disease- in South Asia) E. Solutions (It Starts With You)

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