Market Outlook, 01.04.13

Market Outlook
April 1, 2013
Dealers Diary
The Indian market is expected to open flat mirroring flat opening trades in the SGX
Nifty and negative trades in the major Asian Indices. Major Asian bourses are
trading lower, as the recent economic data releases have shown that the
confidence among big Japanese manufacturers missed estimates and factory
output in China has expanded at a slower-than-expected pace.
The US and the European markets were closed on Friday due to the Easter holiday.
On Thursday, the US markets, after initially showing a lack of direction, moved
mostly higher over the course of the trading day. The strength on the Wall Street
was partly due to the recent upward momentum for the markets, with traders
showing continued buying interest despite recent concerns about the sequester and
the situation in Cyprus. Most of the European bourses finished in the green on
Thursday. Cypriot banks reopened for business on Thursday, after being closed
since March 16, with limits imposed by the Cypriot Govt. on withdrawals and credit
card transactions in a bid to prevent the nation's financial sector from collapsing.
Investors were encouraged by the lack of panic in Cyprus and the relative calm of
those waiting in line at the nation's banks.
Meanwhile, Indian markets were also closed on Friday on account of the Easter
holiday. On Thursday, Indian markets rallied, primarily on short covering due to
F&O contract expiry, even as Indias Current account deficit widened to a recordhigh of 6.7% of GDP in 3QFY2013 and 5.4% in 9MFY2013.
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 18,762 / 5,660 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 18,956 19,076 / 5,715 5,748 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
18,762 / 5,660 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
18,642 18,448 / 5,627 5,572 levels.
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
18,448
18,642
18,762
18,956
19,076
NIFTY
5,572
5,627
5,660
5,715
5,748
News Analysis
CAD hits a record-high at 6.7% of GDP in 3QFY2013

TN pollution board orders closure of Sterlite's smelter
Removal of import alert by USFDA for Unit-VI of Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
HDFC Bank reduces base rate by 10 bps to 9.6%
L&T completes acquisition of Audco India Ltd
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Net Inflows (March 26, 2013)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
FII
2,920
2,353
567
10,399
54,751
330
351
(22)
(1,767)
(7,328)
MFs
FII Derivatives (March 28, 2013)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Index Futures
4,594
4,734
(141)
Open Interest
7,543
Stock Futures
7,668
7,275
393
21,463
chg (%)
Company
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
Price (`)
Opto Circuits
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
60
13.0
Godrej Cons
779
(4.3)
671
11.9
MMTC
199
(3.7)
Aurobindo Phar
146
11.7
MCX
834
(3.7)
Tata Comm
234
9.5
National Alum
33
(3.1)
55
8.0
Torrent Power
140
(3.0)
JSW Steel
Reliance Comm
www.angelbroking.com
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
0.7
Nifty
0.7
131.2 18,836
40.9
5,683
MID CAP
1.5
88.6
6,142
SMALL CAP
1.3
75.6
5,805
BSE HC
0.9
67.9
8,008
BSE PSU
1.8
112.0
6,481
BANKEX
1.7
212.5 13,033
AUTO
(0.8)
(76.9)
9,994
METAL
2.7
229.6
8,758
OIL & GAS
0.5
37.3
8,327
BSE IT
1.1
77.7
6,885
(Pts)
(Close)
Global Indices
Chg (%)
Dow Jones
0.4
52.4 14,579
NASDAQ
0.3
11.0
3,268
FTSE
0.4
24.2
6,412
Nikkei
0.5
61.9
12,398
Hang Seng
(0.7)
(165.2)
22,300
Straits Times
(0.1)
(4.9)
3,308
0.0
0.3
2,237
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
INFY
2.2
1.2
$53.9
WIT
3.0
0.3
$10.1
IBN
4.2
1.7
$42.9
HDB
1.7
0.6
$37.4
Shanghai Com
Indian ADR
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,625
909
Declines
1,149
568
124
102
Unchanged
Volumes (` cr)
BSE
3,100
NSE
14,102
Market Outlook
April 1, 2013
Current Account Deficit (CAD) hits a record-high at 6.7% of GDP

in 3QFY2013
As the trade deficit deteriorated, Indias CAD widened to a record-high of 6.7% of
GDP (USD 32.6 billion) in 3QFY2013 as compared to 5.4% of GDP (USD 22.6
billion) in the previous quarter and 4.4% of GDP (USD 20.2 billion) in 3QFY2012.
For the nine months of FY2013, the CAD has widened to a much higher 5.4% of
GDP (USD 71.7 billion) as compared to 4.1% of GDP (USD 56.4 billion) in the
corresponding period of FY2012.
The negatives: The trade deficit widened to US$ 59.6 billion in 3QFY2013 from
USD 48.3 billion in the previous quarter as imports of goods (9.4% growth) were
largely led by oil and gold imports while exports growth remained flat. The trade
deficit surged to 12.3% of GDP during the quarter. Exports in services also
reported 2% decline to USD 36.5 billion in 3QFY2013 as compared to a growth of
6.4% in the corresponding quarter of the preceding year. Transfers on account of
remittances declined to USD 14.8 billion from USD 15.6 billion in the
corresponding quarter of the preceding year. Also, outflow from primary income
came at a higher USD 8.9 billion as compared to USD 6.1 billion in 3QFY2013
largely due to fall in investment income receipts and rise in investment income
payment.
Capital inflows remained strong and net inflows totaled USD 31 billion owing to
FII inflows as FDI inflows deteriorated to USD 2.5 billion. However, FII inflows in
debt instruments increased and it raises concern over the quality of financing. On
a BoP basis, there was an accretion to the foreign exchange reserve by USD 0.8
billion during the quarter.
Going forward, we anticipate an improvement in the number during 4QFY2013 in
the range of 4.2% - 4.7% of GDP as the trade deficit has moderated in the
previous two months. Gold and oil imports are expected to be lower as the import
duty bears effect and crude prices have moderated as compared to the previous
year. Improvement in the trade deficit for the fourth quarter is also largely due to
seasonal factors and it remains to be seen whether it can be sustained going
ahead. We expect the CAD for the whole of FY2013 to inch towards 5% of GDP,
up from 4.2% of GDP in the previous fiscal.
We believe that to boost exports in the interim, the foreign trade policy due next
month is likely to enhance sops for the export-oriented sectors particularly in
manufacturing since non oil, non gold imports also continue to remain high. In
addition, a high CAD is also likely to reinforce the growth-supportive but stillcautious stance of monetary policy limiting the room for aggressive rate cuts. We
maintain our view of 50bp repo rate cut for FY2013.
Market Outlook
April 1, 2013
TN pollution board orders closure of Sterlite's smelter

The Tamil Nadu Pollution Control Board has ordered Sterlite to shut its Tutikorin
smelter. On March 23, 2013, local people had complained due to gas leakage
from the plant. As per media reports, Sterlite has already begun to shut its plant.
However, there is no clarity on the duration of closure of the smelter. Sterlite's
Tutikorin smelter contributes approximately 10% to the consolidated SOTP
valuation of Sesa Sterlite. Hence, we do not expect material impact on Sterlite's
stock price on account of this temporary closure. We maintain our Buy rating on
the stock with a target price of `110.
Removal of import alert by USFDA for Unit-VI of Aurobindo

Pharmaceuticals
The USFDA has lifted the import alert for non-sterile products manufactured at
UNITVI cephalosporin facility of Aurobindo pharmaceutical based in Hyderabad,
thereby, paving the way for resumption of exports of 9 products to the US market.
The import alert was earlier imposed in February 2011. Prior to import alert, the
Unit was having annual US sales of US $33mn for the said products. The
development is positive for the company as it indicates that the company is on its
way to resolve its USFDA issues. Earlier the company had indicated that the USFDA
inspection for unit IV & VI has been completed. While Unit IV had no observations
and Unit VI had 2-3 minor observations, for which the company had replied to the
USFDA. So the removal alert of the unit VI, should increase the possibility of the
approval of unit IV. We maintain our buy with a target price of `208.
HDFC Bank reduces base rate by 10 bps to 9.6%

HDFC Bank has reduced its base rate by 10bp from 9.7% to 9.6% w.e.f March 30,
2013. It has become the first bank to reduce its base rate after the Reserve Bank of
India (RBI) cut its repo rate by 25 bps on March 19. Now HDFC Bank has the
lowest base rate at 9.6% followed by SBI at 9.7% and ICICIBK at 9.75%. In our
view, the tight liquidity situation has restricted the ability and intent of banks to
lower deposits rates and thereby posing hurdles for effective transmission of
monetary policy. Though deposit rates remains elevated amid moderate deposits
growth, however if liquidity situation improves from here on (it was affected by
advance tax outflows during last few weeks in March), other banks are likely to
follow HDFC Bank and reduce their lending rates by a similar extent in near time.
For HDFC bank, reduction in base rates is expected to impact margins slightly, but
that would be only beginning 1QFY2014. At CMP, the stock trades at 3.5x
FY2014 ABV. We maintain our neutral view on the stock.
L&T completes acquisition of Audco India Ltd

Larsen & Toubro (L&T) said it has completed the acquisition of its group firm,
Audco India Ltd (AIL). The acquisition would help L&T grow its valve business
globally with a comprehensive range of valve offerings. The company would retain
the manufacturing plants of AIL at Manapakkam, Chennai and Kanchipuram.
However, the company did not disclose the deal value. We continue to maintain
our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `1,788.
Market Outlook
April 1, 2013
Economic and Political News
Fiscal deficit touches 97% of revised estimate till Feb

Forex reserves rise by USD 1.1bn in Apr-Dec
CCI push to projects worth `74,000cr hit by delays
Retail inflation for industrial worker surges to 12.06% in Feb
Gujarat: New Irrigation Bill gets governor's nod
Corporate News
Six states agree to debt recast plan of discoms: Scindia

SEIL secures contract from RINL
CCI gives green signal to Denso-Pricol joint venture
Nokia fined by Indian tax officials, court issues stay
BP says USD 8-8.50/mmBtu inadequate for developing deep sea gas finds
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Market Outlook
April 01, 2013
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
April 1, 2013
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Mar
50.10
51.20
April 2, 2013
1:25PM
Germany PMI Manufacturing
Value
Mar F
48.90
48.90
2:00PM
UK
Value
Mar
47.90
49.00
1:25PM
Germany PMI Services
4:30PM
UK
5:15PM
Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates
6:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
6:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
7:00AM
China
2:00PM
UK
4:29PM
April 4, 2013
April 5, 2013
April 9, 2013
April 10, 2013
April 12, 2013

April 15, 2013
PMI Manufacturing
BOE Announces rates
Value
Mar F
51.60
51.60
% Ratio
Apr 4
0.50
0.50
Apr 4
0.75
0.75
Thousands
Mar
236.00
190.00
Mar
7.70
7.70
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Mar
3.20
--
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Feb
(2.90)
--
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Mar
21.80
--
4:29PM
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Mar
2.60
--
4:29PM
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Mar
4.20
--
11:00AM
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Feb
2.40
--
6:00PM
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Mar
0.70
--
7:30AM
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Mar
10.30
--
7:30AM
China
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
1Q
7.90
--
12:00PM
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Mar
6.84
--
2:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Mar
2.80
--
2:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
Mar
1.80
--
6:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Mar
917.00
--
6:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Mar
939.00
--
6:00PM
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Mar
0.70
--
6:45PM
US
Industrial Production
Mar
0.75
--
April 17, 2013
2:00PM
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Mar
(1.50)
--
April 22, 2013
7:30PM
US
Existing home sales
Millions
Mar
4.98
--
7:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Apr A
(23.50)
--
April 23, 2013
7:30PM
US
New home sales
Thousands
Mar
411.00
--
April 25, 2013
2:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
1Q A
0.20
--
April 30, 2013
7:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Apr
59.70
--
May 1, 2013
11:30PM
US
FOMC rate decision
May 1
0.25
--
May 3, 2013
11:00AM
India
RBI Repo rate
May 3
7.50
--
11:00AM
India
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
May 3
4.00
--
11:00AM
India
RBI Reverse Repo rate
May 3
6.50
--
11:30AM
Germany GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
1Q P
0.10
--
2:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
1Q A
(0.60)
--
April 16, 2013
May 15, 2013
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
April 1, 2013
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends

10.0
(%)
(%)
11.2
6.0
9.2
(0.1)
(1.3)
Mfg. PMI
58.0
7.6
7.6
Jan-13
Dec-12
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
7.5
Nov-12
Mar-12
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
7.7
(0.8) (0.5)
(0.7)
(2.0)
(2.8)
(4.0)
Feb-12
3QFY13
2QFY13
1QFY13
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
2QFY10
(2.0)
Oct-12
4.5
Sep-12
5.3 5.5 5.3
2.4
2.0
Aug-12
6.0
2.5
2.0
Jul-12
6.5
5.7
4.3
4.0
7.5
Jun-12
7.6
7.5
8.2
May-12
8.5
Source: CSO, Angel Research
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
8.4
8.0
Apr-12
9.0
1QFY10
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
7.5
8.0
8.1
7.3
7.2
7.3
6.6
6.8
Services PMI
56.0
54.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
52.0
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

(%)
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exports yoy growth
30.0
48.0
Feb-12
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
50.0
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Repo rate
(%)
9.50
Imports yoy growth
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
8.50
15.0
7.50
7.50
6.50
6.50
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
4.00
4.50
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
3.50
May-12
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
5.50
Apr-12
(30.0)
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
(15.0)
Mar-12
0.0
Market Outlook
April 01, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
115
2,243
1,466
1,686
14.8
14.8
7.0
8.1
16.5
14.2
3.5
3.0
22.6
22.5
1.6
1.4
United Phosphorus
Buy
117
170
5,187
8,421
9,263
16.5
16.5
15.0
17.0
7.8
6.9
1.1
1.0
15.6
15.5
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
274
323
4,674
2,983
3,477
16.1
16.1
18.5
21.6
14.8
12.7
4.3
3.3
32.9
29.1
1.5
1.3
Apollo Tyres
Buy
83
97
4,204
13,066
14,503
11.5
11.8
13.0
14.5
6.4
5.8
1.2
1.0
21.0
19.4
0.5
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Buy
22
28
5,840
12,910
14,836
8.8
9.6
1.5
2.2
14.8
9.9
2.0
1.8
9.3
13.4
0.5
0.5
Automotive Axle#
Neutral
295
446
934
1,103
10.2
10.7
24.5
34.3
12.0
8.6
1.5
1.4
13.2
16.9
0.5
0.4
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
1,795
51,938
20,775
23,889
18.5
19.0
107.6
126.4
16.7
14.2
6.9
5.5
45.8
42.8
2.1
1.8
Bharat Forge
Buy
205
242
4,768
5,973
6,707
14.4
15.2
13.4
18.6
15.3
11.0
2.0
1.8
13.6
16.9
1.0
0.8
Bosch India*
Neutral
9,054
28,430
9,717
11,092
16.2
17.0
354.7
423.3
25.5
21.4
4.4
3.8
17.2
17.5
2.6
2.2
CEAT
Buy
94
163
321
4,822
5,403
8.2
8.3
29.8
40.8
3.2
2.3
0.4
0.4
14.5
17.0
0.3
0.2
Exide Industries
Neutral
129
10,982
6,016
7,026
12.7
14.4
5.8
7.8
22.1
16.5
3.3
2.8
15.4
18.2
1.5
1.3
FAG Bearings*
Accumulate
1,470
1,569
2,442
1,619
1,879
16.0
16.6
108.6
130.7
13.5
11.2
2.4
2.0
18.8
19.1
1.3
1.1
Hero Motocorp
Buy
1,542
1,923
30,790
23,990
27,038
13.8
14.6
105.8
120.2
14.6
12.8
5.9
4.8
44.3
41.0
1.0
0.8
JK Tyre
Buy
102
165
417
7,169
7,929
6.9
7.1
40.4
41.3
2.5
2.5
0.5
0.4
20.5
18.0
0.4
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
861
1,019
52,873
40,060
46,301
11.5
11.7
55.3
64.3
15.6
13.4
3.5
2.9
24.5
23.8
1.1
0.9
1,280
1,563
36,972
43,381
52,411
7.5
8.9
65.6
97.7
19.5
13.1
2.2
1.9
11.8
15.6
0.7
0.5
193
209
11,355
25,769
29,010
7.1
7.5
10.2
13.1
19.0
14.8
4.8
3.7
28.1
28.3
0.6
0.5
Buy
23
35
139
1,296
1,476
9.8
9.9
3.4
5.0
6.9
4.6
0.5
0.5
7.2
10.2
0.4
0.4
Tata Motors
Buy
269
326
71,783 184,201 209,642
12.4
13.5
28.0
36.3
9.6
7.4
2.1
1.7
24.6
25.4
0.4
0.4
TVS Motor
Buy
32
47
1,542
7,019
7,827
6.0
6.3
4.3
5.3
7.6
6.2
1.2
1.0
16.4
18.0
0.2
0.1
Maruti
Buy
Motherson Sumi
Accumulate
Subros
Capital Goods
ABB*
Neutral
489
10,367
8,073
9,052
5.5
7.2
11.3
17.4
43.4
28.1
3.8
3.4
8.9
12.8
1.3
1.1
BGR Energy
Neutral
189
1,363
3,412
4,104
13.0
11.6
24.6
26.2
7.7
7.2
1.1
1.0
30.7
25.7
0.7
0.7
BHEL
Neutral
177
43,310
47,801
43,757
18.0
17.1
24.1
20.8
7.4
8.5
2.2
1.9
32.9
23.6
0.8
0.9
Blue Star
Buy
158
238
1,419
2,748
2,896
4.4
5.6
6.8
9.3
23.3
16.9
3.2
2.8
14.5
17.6
0.6
0.6
Crompton Greaves
Buy
94
129
6,011
12,136
13,790
3.8
6.3
3.3
6.9
28.4
13.6
1.6
1.5
5.8
11.5
0.5
0.5
Jyoti Structures
Buy
27
49
222
2,802
3,074
9.5
9.8
7.7
10.9
3.5
2.5
0.3
0.3
9.6
12.1
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
58
75
1,486
6,909
7,723
6.2
7.2
5.4
8.4
10.8
6.9
1.3
1.1
17.0
22.8
0.4
0.3
LMW
Accumulate
1,854
1,992
2,088
2,369
2,727
11.7
11.7
143.4
166.0
12.9
11.2
2.2
2.0
17.4
18.4
0.4
0.3
Thermax
Neutral
569
6,776
5,529
5,798
9.0
9.6
27.1
30.3
21.0
18.8
3.7
3.2
18.6
18.2
1.0
1.0
Market Outlook
April 01, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,161
21,802
11,358
12,366
19.9
19.6
75.1
74.9
15.5
15.5
3.0
2.7
19.4
18.1
1.7
1.5
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
173
26,754
9,730
11,221
25.6
25.0
10.2
11.3
17.0
15.3
3.0
2.8
18.7
19.0
2.3
1.9
India Cements
Neutral
84
2,573
4,439
4,789
16.7
17.2
6.8
9.1
12.3
9.2
0.7
0.7
6.0
7.7
1.0
0.9
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
97
143
1,146
2,119
2,478
22.9
22.3
20.3
22.8
4.8
4.3
0.8
0.7
18.0
17.7
0.7
0.9
Madras Cements
Neutral
252
5,997
3,960
4,270
27.4
27.0
18.6
21.1
13.6
12.0
2.5
2.1
19.7
18.9
2.2
1.9
Shree Cement^
Neutral
4,058
14,137
5,678
6,251
29.0
28.6
288.1
334.0
14.1
12.2
3.9
3.1
31.7
28.4
1.9
1.6
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,868
51,216
20,466
23,017
23.3
24.3
100.0
117.1
18.7
16.0
3.4
2.9
19.6
19.5
2.5
2.3
193
268
1,018
20,466
23,017
22.5
22.5
24.4
27.0
7.9
7.2
0.9
0.8
12.3
12.1
0.2
0.2
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
11
201
2,262
2,522
5.9
6.3
0.9
1.6
11.9
7.0
0.3
0.3
2.7
4.6
0.4
0.4
IRB Infra
Buy
114
164
3,772
3,843
4,212
43.1
43.6
16.8
17.8
6.7
6.4
1.2
1.0
18.3
17.0
3.1
3.4
ITNL
Buy
178
225
3,453
6,564
7,054
27.2
27.4
26.3
29.0
6.8
6.1
1.1
0.9
17.0
16.3
2.6
2.7
IVRCL Infra
Buy
19
35
589
3,773
6,706
6.9
8.4
(3.9)
2.9
(4.9)
6.7
0.3
0.3
(5.4)
4.1
0.8
0.5
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
66
97
14,535
14,243
16,382
26.2
26.1
3.2
4.3
20.4
15.1
1.1
1.0
5.4
7.0
2.5
2.2
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,365
1,788
83,994
60,666
69,525
10.6
11.2
71.9
85.0
19.0
16.1
3.0
2.6
14.5
15.2
1.6
1.4
Nagarjuna Const.
Buy
33
44
858
5,863
6,576
8.1
8.2
3.1
4.1
10.9
8.2
0.4
0.3
3.2
4.2
0.5
0.5
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
55
1,832
11,892
13,116
10.2
10.2
(0.4)
3.0
(129.4)
18.6
0.6
0.6
3.8
0.6
0.5
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
119
157
1,802
1,642
2,642
9.7
10.1
3.2
7.2
37.2
16.5
2.1
1.9
6.0
12.1
1.3
0.9
Simplex Infra
Buy
114
197
564
6,026
7,135
9.1
9.3
14.1
24.6
8.1
4.6
0.5
0.4
5.6
9.2
0.5
0.4
Unity Infra
Buy
27
58
197
2,180
2,455
13.7
13.4
12.9
14.8
2.1
1.8
0.2
0.2
12.1
12.5
0.5
0.4
Allahabad Bank
Buy
127
160
6,325
6,509
7,264
2.7
2.8
28.2
33.5
4.5
3.8
0.6
0.6
13.8
14.7
Andhra Bank
Neutral
95
5,288
4,795
5,475
3.0
3.0
21.8
21.9
4.3
4.3
0.7
0.7
15.4
13.8
Axis Bank
Buy
1,301
1,678
60,863
15,959
18,660
3.2
3.2
119.2
139.0
10.9
9.4
2.0
1.7
20.3
20.1
Bank of Baroda
Buy
678
850
28,553
14,889
17,393
2.5
2.6
108.2
134.0
6.3
5.1
0.9
0.8
15.3
16.7
Bank of India
Buy
303
350
18,026
12,793
14,823
2.3
2.4
49.5
65.1
6.1
4.6
0.9
0.8
13.6
16.0
Bank of Maharashtra
Accumulate
51
56
3,001
3,720
4,268
2.9
2.8
10.9
13.0
4.7
3.9
0.7
0.6
16.2
16.9
Canara Bank
Buy
384
463
17,031
10,783
12,000
2.1
2.3
64.8
82.2
5.9
4.7
0.8
0.7
13.2
15.0
Central Bank
Neutral
67
4,925
7,158
8,217
2.4
2.6
13.1
20.1
5.1
3.3
0.8
0.6
10.3
14.3
Corporation Bank
Buy
384
465
5,690
4,919
5,634
2.1
2.2
96.7
99.9
4.0
3.8
0.7
0.6
16.3
14.9
Dena Bank
Buy
89
107
3,130
3,090
3,462
2.7
2.7
25.6
24.6
3.5
3.6
0.6
0.5
19.2
15.9
Financials
Market Outlook
April 01, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Financials
Federal Bank
Accumulate
481
536
8,216
2,667
2,920
3.2
3.2
49.1
51.4
9.8
9.4
1.3
1.2
13.9
13.1
HDFC
Neutral
826
127,689
7,446
8,923
3.5
3.5
32.2
38.5
25.7
21.4
5.2
4.7
35.4
32.6
HDFC Bank
Accumulate
624
666
148,500
21,724
26,578
4.3
4.3
28.7
36.1
21.8
17.3
4.2
3.5
20.7
22.1
ICICI Bank
Buy
1,045
1,302
120,586
22,317
26,217
2.9
3.0
72.0
84.6
14.5
12.4
1.8
1.7
14.9
15.9
IDBI Bank
Buy
80
106
10,259
8,196
9,305
1.9
2.1
15.4
22.3
5.2
3.6
0.6
0.5
10.7
14.1
Indian Bank
Buy
173
208
7,452
5,716
6,362
3.2
3.2
37.7
41.1
4.6
4.2
0.8
0.7
16.9
16.2
IOB
Buy
65
85
5,196
7,231
8,369
2.4
2.5
10.2
20.2
6.4
3.2
0.5
0.4
7.4
13.4
J & K Bank
Buy
1,191
1,406
5,773
2,784
2,932
3.7
3.7
229.2
199.6
5.2
6.0
1.2
1.0
24.6
18.2
LIC Housing Finance
Accumulate
225
257
11,352
1,722
2,080
2.2
2.2
19.9
24.6
11.3
9.1
1.8
1.5
16.6
17.9
Oriental Bank
Buy
250
314
7,306
6,360
7,004
2.6
2.8
48.1
59.4
5.2
4.2
0.6
0.6
12.1
13.5
Punjab Natl.Bank
Buy
718
957
25,362
19,202
22,040
3.2
3.4
146.8
167.9
4.9
4.3
0.9
0.8
17.6
17.5
South Ind.Bank
Buy
25
30
3,286
1,583
1,789
3.0
2.9
3.5
4.1
7.1
6.1
1.2
1.0
19.1
17.7
St Bk of India
Buy
2,073
2,514
139,091
60,594
70,439
3.3
3.3
221.9
257.4
9.3
8.1
1.6
1.3
17.4
17.7
Syndicate Bank
Buy
110
135
6,618
6,673
7,644
2.9
3.0
32.0
27.9
3.4
3.9
0.7
0.6
22.0
16.5
UCO Bank
Neutral
56
4,196
5,388
6,262
2.4
2.6
9.0
14.9
6.2
3.7
0.8
0.7
9.1
13.8
Union Bank
Buy
218
256
12,005
10,006
11,558
2.8
2.8
36.4
47.0
6.0
4.6
0.9
0.7
14.6
16.6
United Bank
Buy
56
75
2,036
3,549
3,814
2.5
2.7
12.0
21.4
4.7
2.6
0.5
0.4
10.1
16.3
Vijaya Bank
Accumulate
47
54
2,324
2,342
2,763
1.9
2.1
8.0
10.9
5.9
4.3
0.6
0.6
10.1
12.6
Yes Bank
Buy
429
526
15,369
3,364
4,260
2.8
3.0
36.3
42.6
11.8
10.1
2.6
2.2
24.6
23.6
4,914
47,139
11,198
13,319
15.9
15.7
122.1
147.1
40.2
33.4
13.6
10.6
37.7
35.7
4.1
3.5
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
Britannia
Accumulate
524
564
6,267
5,580
6,417
4.8
5.0
18.1
21.7
29.0
24.2
10.5
8.4
38.7
38.7
1.0
0.9
Colgate
Neutral
1,246
16,951
3,120
3,588
20.3
21.1
38.4
45.1
32.5
27.7
30.2
24.2
104.6
97.0
5.2
4.5
Dabur India
Neutral
137
23,887
6,196
7,183
16.3
16.8
4.5
5.5
30.4
25.0
12.6
9.8
43.4
44.0
3.9
3.3
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
4,187
17,608
3,084
3,617
15.2
16.3
103.9
123.0
40.3
34.1
12.9
10.6
34.9
34.3
5.2
4.5
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
779
26,520
6,386
7,743
15.7
17.0
20.8
27.1
37.4
28.7
8.0
6.6
23.7
26.4
4.4
3.5
HUL
Neutral
466
100,785
25,350
28,974
13.3
13.5
15.1
17.0
30.9
27.5
24.6
17.5
85.7
74.3
3.8
3.3
ITC
Neutral
309
244,246
29,148
34,191
35.7
36.1
9.4
11.1
33.0
27.9
11.0
9.1
35.9
35.7
8.1
6.8
Marico
Neutral
212
13,685
4,747
5,402
13.6
13.6
6.3
7.8
33.5
27.1
6.8
5.6
26.0
22.6
3.0
2.5
Nestle*
Neutral
4,589
44,250
8,302
9,739
22.0
21.5
110.7
130.8
41.5
35.1
24.6
17.6
69.5
58.6
5.4
4.4
Market Outlook
April 01, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Accumulate
128
145
7,906
7,272
7,998
9.1
9.9
6.9
8.1
18.7
15.9
2.0
1.9
8.9
9.7
1.0
0.9
HCL Tech^
Accumulate
796
876
55,313
25,396
28,540
22.0
20.8
51.8
53.3
15.4
14.9
4.1
3.4
27.1
23.0
2.1
1.8
Hexaware*
Buy
85
117
2,533
1,948
2,137
20.9
18.8
10.9
10.4
7.8
8.2
2.1
1.8
27.2
22.6
1.2
1.0
Infosys
Accumulate
2,890
3,132
165,949
40,686
45,463
28.9
28.6
163.0
175.5
17.7
16.5
4.2
3.6
23.6
21.5
3.5
3.0
Infotech Enterprises
Buy
169
196
1,888
1,886
1,994
18.6
18.1
20.1
20.2
8.4
8.4
1.3
1.2
15.9
13.8
0.6
0.5
KPIT Cummins
Buy
96
130
1,852
2,238
2,458
15.8
15.5
10.9
13.1
8.8
7.3
1.9
1.5
22.2
20.9
0.8
0.7
Mahindra Satyam
Accumulate
128
143
15,081
7,721
8,456
21.6
19.3
8.7
10.6
14.8
12.1
3.5
2.7
30.6
22.4
1.5
1.3
Mindtree
Neutral
912
3,787
2,362
2,587
21.1
19.4
84.7
87.2
10.8
10.5
2.9
2.2
26.9
21.8
1.3
1.1
Mphasis&
Neutral
392
8,237
5,581
6,096
18.1
17.6
35.6
38.1
11.0
10.3
1.7
1.5
15.3
14.2
1.1
0.9
NIIT
Buy
21
30
341
1,048
1,161
9.1
10.9
4.1
6.2
5.0
3.4
0.5
0.5
10.3
14.1
0.2
0.1
Persistent
Accumulate
542
602
2,167
1,298
1,433
25.8
24.7
46.7
55.5
11.6
9.8
2.2
1.8
18.5
18.4
1.3
1.1
TCS
Neutral
1,572
307,636
63,016
71,548
28.8
28.5
70.9
78.1
22.2
20.1
7.3
5.9
33.0
29.5
4.7
4.1
Tech Mahindra
Buy
1,059
1,230
13,553
6,810
7,699
21.2
19.3
96.6
107.0
11.0
9.9
2.7
2.1
24.5
21.7
2.1
1.7
Wipro
Accumulate
437
473
107,665
43,546
47,122
20.1
19.8
26.6
28.2
16.5
15.5
3.3
2.8
19.7
18.2
2.1
1.9
D B Corp
Buy
226
276
4,151
1,583
1,787
23.9
25.4
11.9
14.5
19.1
15.6
3.8
3.2
21.4
22.4
2.5
2.2
HT Media
Accumulate
103
113
2,420
2,061
2,205
14.0
15.1
6.6
7.9
15.5
13.1
1.5
1.4
10.3
11.0
0.8
0.7
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
93
125
2,930
1,511
1,698
23.2
23.4
6.4
7.3
14.4
12.7
3.6
3.2
25.9
26.6
2.1
1.8
PVR
Neutral
303
1,202
820
1,307
17.3
17.3
11.2
17.8
27.2
17.1
1.2
1.2
9.7
10.8
1.5
0.9
Sun TV Network
Neutral
392
15,428
1,942
2,237
77.2
75.5
17.6
19.1
22.2
20.5
5.4
4.8
25.8
25.2
7.5
6.4
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
458
10,374
10,746
13,982
30.8
31.1
43.3
55.5
10.6
8.3
1.1
1.0
11.4
12.6
3.1
2.4
Coal India
Buy
309
368
195,270
66,666
70,292
25.7
27.3
24.2
26.6
12.8
11.6
3.8
3.1
33.1
29.1
2.0
1.7
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
16
28
536
1,984
2,074
10.6
11.6
1.8
2.6
8.8
6.0
0.3
0.1
3.6
5.1
0.5
0.4
Hind. Zinc
Buy
121
149
51,190
12,002
13,759
49.7
50.8
14.7
16.4
8.2
7.4
1.6
1.4
21.1
19.8
2.3
1.7
Hindalco
Neutral
92
17,518
80,205
88,987
9.0
9.2
13.4
13.8
6.8
6.6
0.5
0.5
7.9
7.6
0.6
0.5
JSW Steel
Neutral
671
14,964
39,072
40,493
16.5
18.2
82.4
90.3
8.1
7.4
0.8
0.8
10.7
10.7
0.8
0.8
MOIL
Accumulate
222
246
3,729
933
954
46.9
45.5
25.8
26.1
8.6
8.5
1.4
1.2
16.7
15.1
1.5
1.4
Monnet Ispat
Buy
228
318
1,453
2,287
2,883
21.8
21.8
35.3
40.7
6.5
5.6
0.6
0.5
9.6
10.2
1.8
1.4
Nalco
Neutral
33
8,544
6,630
8,357
11.4
14.5
2.1
3.3
15.6
10.2
0.7
0.7
4.6
6.9
0.6
0.6
NMDC
Buy
138
178
54,535
9,674
10,329
75.2
73.8
16.0
16.6
8.6
8.3
1.9
1.6
23.6
20.7
3.5
3.1
FMCG
Tata Global
IT
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
April 01, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Metals & Mining

SAIL
Neutral
Sesa Goa
Buy
62
25,751
43,438
56,199
12.0
12.2
6.5
8.5
9.6
7.3
0.6
0.6
6.6
8.2
0.8
0.7
156
183
13,528
2,412
3,911
30.8
33.1
29.6
31.8
5.3
4.9
0.8
0.7
16.3
15.4
7.1
4.4
Sterlite Inds
Tata Steel
Buy
94
110
31,523
43,185
45,442
23.3
23.7
16.8
17.9
5.6
5.2
0.6
0.6
11.6
11.2
0.7
0.6
Buy
312
443
30,331 142,732 146,575
7.4
9.9
7.2
34.7
43.5
9.0
0.7
0.7
1.6
7.5
0.5
0.5
Sarda
Buy
94
148
339
1,442
1,494
19.0
19.1
29.2
31.7
3.2
3.0
0.4
0.3
12.3
12.0
0.6
0.5
Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas
Buy
36
52
486
2,512
2,816
12.4
13.7
10.0
12.6
3.6
2.9
0.2
0.2
7.2
8.4
0.5
0.4
Buy
83
112
265
2,367
2,425
14.2
13.7
33.3
33.5
2.5
2.5
0.3
0.3
12.9
11.2
0.6
0.5
Cairn India
Buy
272
383
51,987
17,394
17,034
76.4
72.3
60.8
55.1
4.5
4.9
0.9
0.8
21.9
17.0
2.2
1.8
GAIL
Neutral
319
40,483
48,077
55,815
15.3
15.3
34.9
35.9
9.2
8.9
1.6
1.4
19.0
17.0
0.6
0.4
ONGC
Accumulate
312
357
266,546 144,089 158,065
32.8
34.7
28.7
34.4
10.9
9.1
1.8
1.6
17.0
18.3
1.6
1.4
Reliance Industries
Neutral
774
249,802 362,700 380,031
8.9
8.9
68.1
71.5
11.4
10.8
1.2
1.1
12.4
11.8
0.7
0.6
Gujarat Gas*
Neutral
240
3,075
3,707
3,850
11.7
12.4
23.7
25.7
10.1
9.3
2.8
2.5
29.6
28.2
0.7
0.6
Indraprastha Gas
Neutral
275
3,856
3,365
3,700
22.8
23.4
25.3
26.6
10.9
10.3
2.6
2.2
26.0
22.6
1.3
1.1
Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals
Buy
135
179
10,155
32,210
41,362
6.1
5.8
15.4
15.6
8.8
8.7
2.3
1.9
29.1
24.1
0.4
0.3
Neutral
67
3,762
1,079
983
91.8
91.9
8.8
7.8
7.6
8.5
1.3
1.1
17.8
14.1
3.2
3.5
Alembic Pharma
Reduce
104
95
1,963
1,490
1,714
16.2
17.1
7.4
9.5
14.1
11.0
3.8
2.9
30.7
30.2
1.4
1.2
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
146
208
4,249
5,463
6,279
15.0
15.0
12.4
14.0
11.8
10.4
1.5
1.3
18.8
17.8
1.4
1.2
Aventis*
Neutral
2,582
5,946
1,482
1,682
17.5
16.6
82.9
87.8
31.1
29.4
4.9
3.9
16.3
14.8
3.8
3.3
Cadila Healthcare
Accumulate
741
817
15,179
6,148
7,386
15.3
18.0
24.6
39.5
30.1
18.8
5.7
4.6
18.4
25.1
2.9
2.3
Cipla
Accumulate
380
419
30,491
8,151
9,130
25.8
24.8
20.2
21.6
18.8
17.6
3.4
2.9
19.4
17.6
3.5
3.0
Dr Reddy's
Accumulate
1,766
1,859
29,985
10,696
11,662
20.7
21.0
83.7
92.9
21.1
19.0
4.3
3.6
22.4
20.8
3.1
2.7
Dishman Pharma
Buy
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
Indoco Remedies
Buy
Ipca labs
69
155
558
1,280
1,536
20.2
20.2
12.1
15.5
5.7
4.5
0.6
0.5
10.0
11.6
1.1
1.0
2,189
18,544
2,651
2,993
31.7
31.2
76.0
82.4
28.8
26.6
8.3
7.4
20.1
26.3
6.2
5.4
58
78
533
642
784
14.2
15.2
5.7
7.8
10.2
7.4
1.2
1.1
12.9
16.4
1.0
0.9
Accumulate
527
559
6,644
2,850
3,474
21.0
21.0
29.9
37.3
17.6
14.1
4.2
3.3
26.7
26.4
2.5
2.1
Lupin
Neutral
629
28,152
8,426
10,082
19.7
20.0
26.1
31.1
24.1
20.2
5.6
4.5
25.8
24.7
3.5
2.9
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
440
18,608
12,253
11,400
14.1
12.5
31.2
21.6
14.1
20.4
4.6
3.9
37.9
20.6
1.5
1.5
Sun Pharma
Neutral
818
84,616
10,111
12,563
42.6
42.6
28.9
29.8
28.3
27.5
5.8
4.9
22.3
19.2
7.7
6.0
74
78
1,123
1,502
1,535
32.1
31.9
11.4
12.5
6.5
5.9
0.7
0.7
7.6
11.9
1.2
1.0
Power
GIPCL
Accumulate
Market Outlook
April 01, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Accumulate
142
163
117,086
72,809
81,951
23.4
24.1
12.2
13.6
11.6
10.4
1.4
1.3
12.2
12.5
2.2
2.1
DLF
Buy
235
288
39,860
7,953
9,699
34.7
37.0
4.4
6.0
53.7
39.3
1.5
1.5
3.1
3.8
7.1
5.5
MLIFE
Buy
381
446
1,556
786
888
26.3
26.7
31.0
36.3
12.3
10.5
1.2
1.1
10.1
10.8
2.3
2.0
Bharti Airtel
Buy
292
348
110,812
80,521
87,160
30.5
30.5
6.4
10.4
45.7
28.1
2.1
2.0
4.6
7.0
2.2
2.0
Idea Cellular
Neutral
113
37,518
22,087
23,927
26.6
27.7
2.9
3.9
38.7
29.0
2.7
2.4
6.9
8.4
2.3
2.1
Rcom
Neutral
55
11,393
21,087
22,067
31.8
31.9
2.6
4.0
21.0
13.8
0.3
0.3
1.5
2.2
2.3
2.1
13.1
13.5
79.0
90.8
17.1
14.9
3.7
3.1
23.7
22.8
1.3
1.1
Power
NTPC
Real Estate
Telecom
Others
Abbott India
Buy
1,349
1,634
2,866
1,926
2,152
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
173
217
1,721
3,450
3,929
4.5
7.4
10.0
15.5
17.3
11.2
2.2
1.9
13.0
17.4
0.5
0.4
Cera Sanitaryware
Accumulate
444
495
561
460
596
16.4
16.2
34.7
45.0
12.8
9.9
3.1
2.4
27.7
27.8
1.3
1.0
Cravatex
Buy
302
545
78
272
308
7.2
7.3
37.5
45.4
8.1
6.7
1.9
1.5
23.7
22.7
0.4
0.3
CRISIL
Neutral
886
6,225
982
1,136
34.3
34.3
34.3
40.0
25.8
22.2
11.7
9.3
50.9
46.9
5.9
5.0
Finolex Cables
Buy
46
61
696
2,268
2,559
9.5
10.0
9.0
10.1
5.1
4.5
0.8
0.7
14.8
14.6
0.2
0.2
Force Motors
Buy
333
550
433
2,027
2,299
4.6
5.1
35.3
50.0
9.4
6.7
0.4
0.4
3.9
5.3
0.1
Goodyear India
Buy
259
304
597
1,559
1,676
7.1
7.4
27.5
30.5
9.4
8.5
1.5
1.3
16.9
16.7
0.2
0.1
Greenply Industries
Neutral
352
850
1,925
2,235
10.6
10.9
29.6
44.1
11.9
8.0
1.9
1.6
16.8
21.0
0.7
0.6
Hitachi
Neutral
Honeywell Automation* Accumulate
129
355
905
1,025
4.8
6.0
7.7
12.4
16.8
10.4
1.6
1.4
9.9
14.4
0.5
0.4
2,569
2,842
2,272
2,117
2,491
8.1
7.8
140.5
157.9
18.3
16.3
2.8
2.4
16.3
15.8
1.0
0.8
IFB Agro
Buy
151
198
121
456
495
11.4
12.7
29.9
29.3
5.1
5.2
0.9
0.7
19.8
15.4
0.2
0.4
ITD Cementation
Buy
176
239
203
1,455
1,630
12.0
12.1
23.2
31.2
7.6
5.7
0.5
0.4
6.5
8.1
0.6
0.6
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
166
2,672
816
979
14.5
14.9
5.2
6.0
32.2
27.5
3.7
3.4
8.8
10.2
3.5
2.8
MCX
Buy
834
1,440
4,251
553
624
65.3
66.3
62.5
72.0
13.4
11.6
3.7
3.2
27.5
27.4
4.7
3.7
MRF
Buy
11,993
14,331
5,086
12,422
13,767
12.9
12.8 1,661.0 1,791.4
7.2
6.7
1.4
1.2
22.0
19.4
0.5
0.5
Page Industries
Neutral
3,322
3,706
856
1,047
19.1
19.6
101.2
127.3
32.9
26.1
16.8
12.5
58.5
54.9
4.4
3.6
Relaxo Footwears
Buy
587
887
704
989
1,148
10.7
11.7
41.8
55.5
14.1
10.6
3.2
2.5
25.5
26.3
0.9
0.7
Sintex Industries
Buy
46
79
1,443
4,751
5,189
16.3
16.6
13.6
15.8
3.4
2.9
0.5
0.4
12.9
13.2
0.7
0.5
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
238
332
223
1,048
1,157
11.3
12.0
58.7
66.5
4.1
3.6
0.7
0.6
18.9
18.3
0.5
0.4
S. Kumars Nationwide
Neutral
245
6,765
7,393
18.1
18.0
6.4
7.5
1.3
1.1
0.1
0.1
6.1
6.7
0.6
0.6
SpiceJet
Buy
27
43
1,291
5,720
6,599
5.3
6.8
3.6
5.4
7.4
5.0
10.7
3.4
0.4
0.3
Styrolution ABS India*
Buy
553
744
973
1,069
1,223
9.7
9.7
40.0
46.5
13.8
11.9
2.0
1.7
15.1
15.3
0.9
0.8
Market Outlook
April 01, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Others
TAJ GVK
Buy
65
108
405
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
8.2
7.1
1.1
1.0
13.9
14.4
1.7
1.4
Tata Sponge Iron
Buy
298
379
459
782
818
16.5
17.0
61.8
65.4
4.8
4.6
0.7
0.6
15.7
14.7
0.2
0.1
TTK Healthcare
Buy
404
655
314
393
439
5.9
6.7
21.1
26.7
19.1
15.2
3.1
2.7
17.5
19.1
0.6
0.6
Tree House
Buy
230
275
828
110
150
53.4
52.7
9.1
12.8
25.4
18.0
2.1
1.8
8.1
10.0
6.9
5.1
TVS Srichakra
Buy
177
276
135
1,461
1,591
5.6
7.1
6.9
39.4
25.5
4.5
1.0
0.9
3.8
20.6
0.3
0.3
United Spirits
Neutral
1,898
24,825
10,473
11,939
15.0
15.8
30.4
56.9
62.4
33.4
4.8
3.0
10.8
12.3
3.1
2.4
Vesuvius India
Accumulate
314
355
636
591
623
17.5
17.2
29.0
29.6
10.8
10.6
1.6
1.5
16.0
14.5
0.9
0.8
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on March 28, 2013
Market Outlook
April 01, 2013

Market Outlook, 01.04.13

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Market Outlook, 01.04.13

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Market Outlook

CAD hits a record-high at 6.7% of GDP in 3QFY2013

Net Inflows (March 26, 2013)

FII Derivatives (March 28, 2013)

OIL & GAS

Current Account Deficit (CAD) hits a record-high at 6.7% of GDP

TN pollution board orders closure of Sterlite's smelter

Removal of import alert by USFDA for Unit-VI of Aurobindo

HDFC Bank reduces base rate by 10 bps to 9.6%

L&T completes acquisition of Audco India Ltd

Economic and Political News

Fiscal deficit touches 97% of revised estimate till Feb

Six states agree to debt recast plan of discoms: Scindia

Country Event Description

Germany PMI Manufacturing

Germany PMI Services

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates

Change in Nonfarm payrolls

April 12, 2013

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Industrial Production (YoY)

Industrial Production YoY

Producer Price Index (mom)

Industrial Production (YoY)

Real GDP (YoY)

Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%

Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

Consumer price index (mom)

April 17, 2013

Jobless claims change

April 22, 2013

Existing home sales

Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence

April 23, 2013

New home sales

April 25, 2013

April 30, 2013

FOMC rate decision

RBI Repo rate

RBI Cash Reserve ratio

RBI Reverse Repo rate

Germany GDP nsa (YoY)

Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)

April 16, 2013

May 15, 2013

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

5.3 5.5 5.3

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exports yoy growth

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Imports yoy growth

Reverse Repo rate

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Agri / Agri Chemical

Amara Raja Batteries

Auto & Auto Ancillary