[table_main]

2011 02 19

[table_research]

S0360209120018

Tel 010-59370866
Email quxiaoxi@hczq.com
[table_rank]

1 2020
2000
10 1.4

[table_data]

300124

002334

300048

300161

300137

300024

300112

[table_stockTrend]
( 12 )
2009-12-132010-12-13

20%

2
CNC 20%
30%
3

30%
18%
6%
-6%
-18%
-30%
09-12

10-3
10-6
300

10-9

[table_relation]

2010E
2.17

1.00

0.87
0.50

0.49

0.76

0.56

EPS
2011E
3.33
1.45

2012E
5.08
2.09

2010E
62
53

PE
2011E
40
36

2012E
26
21

1.58

2.3

59

33

22

0.70
0.72

1.03
1.12

51
60

36
41

25
26

1.24

1.83

84

51

35

0.8

1.1

41

29

21

20091210

................................................................................... 4
1 ................................................................................. 4
2 ......................................................................................... 5
3 ..................... 6
4 ................................................................................. 7
................................................................................................... 7
1 ................................................. 8
1.1 FA .............................................................. 8
1.2 PA .......................................................................... 9
2 OEM ............................................................................ 10
3 ................................................................... 11
4 ................... 12
5 ............................... 13
6 ........... 15
20% ......................... 16
1 ....................... 16
2CNC ........... 17
3 ........................................... 19
4 ............................................... 19
4.1 ............................................................................................... 19
4.2 ............................................................................... 20
4.3 ........................................................................... 20
5 ....................................................................................... 21
..................... 22
......................................................................................................................................... 30

20091210

2 / 32

1 ............................................................................. 4
2 ..................................................................................... 5
3 numerical control ....... 6
4 ................................................................................................. 7
5 ................................................................................................. 7
6 ..................................................................................................... 8
7 FA ........................................................................................ 8
8 PA ........................................................................................ 9
9 ......................................................................................................... 9
10 OEM .............................................................................. 10
11 OEM .............................................. 10
12 OEM ................................................................................... 10
13 ................................................................................. 11
14 ..................................................................................... 11
15 ................................................................................................. 12
16 PLCDCS ........................................................................................ 12
17 HMI ...................................................................................... 12
18 .................................................................. 13
19 ...................................................................... 13
20 09 ........................................................ 13
21 09 ............................................................................ 14
22 09 CNC ................................................................................. 14
23 ................................................................................................ 14
24 PA 50% ................... 15
25 FA 50% .................... 15
26 .................................................................................................... 16
27 ........................................................................................ 16
28 15%............................................................ 17
29 ................................................................................................ 17
30 ............................................................................. 18
31 PLCDCS ........................................................................ 18
32 CNC ............................................................ 18
33 ......................................................... 18
34 ............................................................. 19
35 ............................................................. 19
36 ............................................................................................ 20
37 .............................................................. 21
38 .............................................................................. 22
39 .............................................. 30
40 ............................................. 30
41 ................................................................................................................ 31

20091210

3 / 32

2010GDP4000

1
2020
15%

20091210

4 / 32

90%95%
70%2009
1746
80%
90%
70% 30 Mpa
1/4
2

CNC

2006 2010
25%

20091210

5 / 32

2009 24.2%
50%

4% 3.5%

2010 12

2200

(Bain&Co)RaymondTsang

20% 30%

2009
15.6%

(FanucLtd.) (SiemensAG,SIE.XE)
(RockwellAutomation)
3

numerical control

(NomuraSecurities)

(YaskawaElectric)

WenjieGe

80

20091210

6 / 32

TDK THK
2010 2.74 4035

4
20%

30%

20091210

7 / 32

Factory Automation OEM Original Equipment

Manufacturer

Process Automation
EUEnd-Users

1.1 FA

OEMOriginal
Equipment Manufacturer

7 FA

20091210

8 / 32

1.2 PA

EUEnd-Users

8 PA

20091210

9 / 32

2 OEM
OEM

PLC
PLC 30%

OEM
PA FA

10 OEM

OEM

11

OEM

12 OEM

20091210

10 / 32

13

30%

14

6%

1%

30%

5%
OEM

O
O
EM
EM

5
6%

7
%

20091210

11 / 32

15

20%
16%

600

25%

500

20%
15%

400

12%

10%
300
5%

8%

200

4%

100

0%
-5%

0
2006

0%

-10%
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2009 439
200 120%

4
16

PLCDCS

32%
28%
24%
20%
16%
12%
8%
4%
0%

36%
32%
28%
24%
20%
16%
12%
8%
4%
0%

17

HMI

36%
32%
28%
24%
20%
16%
12%
8%
4%
0%

40%
30%
20%
10%

0%

20091210

12 / 32

18

19
30%

30%

20%

20%

10%

10%

0%

0%

20

09

20091210

13 / 32

21

09

22

CNC

28.2%

29.7%

7.9%
17.3%
8.4%

8.5%

23

SickOmronKeyenceBanner
TurckP+FTamagawaHeidenhain

SiemensE+HEmerson
HoneywellInvensysFuji

ABBHachE+HTeledyne
ServomexSiemens

500

20091210

14 / 32

24 PA 50%

DCS

ABB

VEGA

25 FA 50%

ABB

20%

20091210

15 / 32

ABB
NASDAQHOLI

26

27

1958
1991
1991
2003
2005
2006
2006
2006
2006

Ti() PLC
AAI, Moore, Milltronics
Compex, Danfoss Flow ()

ROBICON
Berwanger
Flender
Eastime
CNC

PLC
PLC
DCS

20%

1
2009 700 2020
2000 13%
10 1.4

20091210

16 / 32

28 15%
900

25%

800

20%

700

15%

600
500

10%

400

5%

300

0%

200

-5%

100
0

-10%
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

29

12

2 CNC
CNC

2008CNCCNC
CNC2009
20091210

17 / 32

CNC2008
30

CNC

3.5%
3.7%
6.4%
19.1%
4.3%
100%

23.4%
22.1%
41.1%
19.8%
24.9%
13.1%

31 PLCDCS
70

15%

80

14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%

78

60

10%

50

76
74

40

5%

30

0%

72
70
68

66

20
-5%

10

64

62

-10%
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

60

2011

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

32 CNC
40

25%

35

20%

30

25

15%

20
10%

15
10

5%

5
0

0%
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

33
105

60%

180

90

50%

150

40%

120

30%

90

20%

60

15

10%

30

0%

75

18%

16%
14%

12%

60

10%

8%

45

30

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

6%

4%
2%
0%
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

20091210

18 / 32

3
34

35

600

80%

30%.
350

20%

500
200

CNC 3
8-9

PLC

4
4.1
DCS
DCS
FA

PLC HMI PLC PLC

40

PACControlLogix

20091210

19 / 32

4.2

IPC 10

36

4.3
RFID

IO

20091210

20 / 32

5
37

DCS

PLC

CNC

ABB

ABB

ABB

ABB

ABB

M2I

GE

GE

20091210

21 / 32

38

EPS
2011E
3.33
1.45

2012E
5.08
2.09

2010E
62
53

PE
2011E
40
36

2012E
26
21

1.58

2.3

59

33

22

1.03
1.12

51
60

36
41

25
26

2010E
2.17

1.00

0.87
0.50

0.49

0.70
0.72

0.76

1.24

1.83

84

51

35

0.56

0.8

1.1

41

29

21

0.66

0.96

1.28

30

20

15

0.41

0.62

0.78

38

25

20

0.55

0.83

1.15

43

28

20

2011 2 10

20091210

22 / 32

[table_main]

(300124.SZ)

()

10800

A /B ()

2700/0

(%)

25.58

2010
6 42.6%37.5%15.3%
3.2% 1.4%

()

2.66

45% 60%
50%

PLC PLC

CNC

4
5 2010 2011 2012 EPS 2.17 3.33
5.08

20091210

()

148.19

()
12 /

52.93
168.0/71.88

( 12 )
2010-2-102011-2-10

68%
51%
34%
17%
0%
10-9
300

10-12

2010

2011-01-06

2010-12-01

2010-10-25

2010-10-15

2010-09-29

23 / 32

(002334.SZ)

60%-70%
50% 40%
2

3
85%
555 41%
2%

5


6 2010 2011 2012 EPS 1.02 1.45
2.09

20091210

()

12160

A /B ()

3040/0

(%)

27.48

()

4.17

()

86.79

()

13.98

12 /

114.8/47.0

( 12 )

118%
90%
62%
34%
6%
-22%
10-2

2010-2-102011-2-10

10-5
10-8
300

10-11 11-2

2011-01-31

2011-01-28

2010-12-06

2010-11-05

2010-10-25

2010-10-18

24 / 32

[table_main]

(300048.SZ)

11

()

12306

A /B ()

3900/0

(%)

43.98

()

2.55

()

96.25

()

21.58

08

12 /

50%

( 12 )

38%
35%
10
11

2
750 10
1000

70.62/34.56

53%
38%
23%
8%
-7%
-22%
10-2

2010-2-102011-2-10

10-5
10-8
300

10-11 11-2

11 1500 600
12 2100
10 11
1.7 11

11

2011-01-18

311

10/11/12 EPS 0.871.582.3

10 10 720
180

[table_main]

20091210

25 / 32

[table_main]

(300161.SZ)

2010

()

25750

A /B ()

7750/0

(%)

54.59

()

5.06

()

56.29

()

5.01

12 /

55.35/23.44

( 12 )
2010-2-192011-2-19

30%
17%
4%
-9%
-22%
10-2

10-5
10-8
300

10-11

5000
15000
5 2010-2012 EPS 0.500.70
1.03

20091210

26 / 32

[table_main]

(300137.SZ)

700

()

12000

A /B ()

3000/0

(%)

40.37

()

1.73

()

108.31

()

17.41

12 /

42.68/27.0

( 12 )

1 50%

30%
3

13000

COD 15000

21%
13%
5%
-3%
-11%
-19%

2010-2-102011-2-10

10-11

11-2

300

4
2000

5 2010-2012 EPS 0.49

0.72 1.12

[table_main]

20091210

27 / 32

(300024.SZ)

ABB

()

13530

A /B ()

7610/0

(%)

18.96

()

15.27

()

132.72

()

4.25

12 /

121.48/33.68

( 12 )

133%
102%
71%
40%
9%
-22%
10-2

2010-2-102011-2-10

10-5
10-8
300

10-11 11-2

2010 50%-70%
2011-01-26
+

2010-12-16

5EPS EPS
0.761.24 1.83
6

1-2

20091210

28 / 32

[table_main]

(300112.SZ)

()

7163

A /B ()

1800/0

(%)

6.24

()

5.73

()

65.31

()

1
25%

25%
2 30%
3

4 1%

200
2

4.14

12 /

28.5/21.78

( 12 )
2010-2-202011-2-20

17%
10%
3%
-4%
-11%
10-8

10-11
300

2011-01-17

5
2.9 9400
2011 10 2012

6
2010-2012 EPS 0.560.80 1.10

[table_main]

20091210

29 / 32

39

2005

2005

2005

BkS

2006

2006

2006

2007

2007

2009

40

2005

(2005
)

DCS

2006

2006-2020

2007

2007

2009

RFID

2009

2010

2010 2005
1.22 1 20%

20091210

30 / 32

41

PLC

DCS

CNC

2007

IPC

CNC

FA

PA

EU
ERP

MES

MRP

SCAD
A

DSP

DCS

(PLC)

CNC

.,
,,

MRP MRP

20091210

31 / 32

( 300)

620%

610%20%

6 -10%10%

610%20%

3-65%

3-6-5%5%

3-65%

21 7
100036
010-59370801