ND Central Plant AC GSBN Key Inputs v1.1

BNCAC01: Central Air Conditioning Plant, Government Standards Evidence Base 2009: Key Inputs
Version 1.1 This Briefing Note and referenced information is a public consultation document and will be used to inform Government decisions. The information and analysis forms part of the Evidence Base created by Defras Market Transformation Programme.
Introduction
The aim of this Briefing Note is to provide details and reference sources of the underlying data in central plant air conditioning unit models, along with the key assumptions used in these models. There are three main sections to this Briefing Note, corresponding to the main variables of the MTP modelling approach: o o o Ownership & stock Sales Usage & lifespan
Each section also includes an indication of the overall confidence in the dataset, to provide a sense of the robustness of the model.
1.1 Product Definitions

Air conditioning systems can be divided into; o small, where unit and split air conditioners dominate, o medium, where the market is divided between multi-split systems and air-cooled systems, and o large, where the cooling is mostly delivered by air that is cooled centrally (as in a variable air volume or VAV system) or in a combined system with fresh air-cooled centrally, and further cooling provided within the room spaces by a large number of Fan Coil Units (FCUs).
Version: 1.1 First created: 22/03/2009 Updated: 15/06/2010 Last reviewed: 15/06/2010
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http://efficient-products.defra.gov.uk 0845 600 8951
This Briefing Note focuses on large systems where central plant air conditioning units are defined as systems, or components of systems, that deliver heating, cooling and ventilation services to a building from a central unit and accompanying distribution system. However, this briefing note is only concerned with the cooling demand provided by Central Plant Air Conditioning.
Chillers Chillers are an integral component of air-conditioning and comfort cooling systems. There are three principle types:
Absorption chillers Absorption chillers use a heat source to produce chilled water. The cooling effect occurs when refrigerant evaporates thereby removing heat. The resulting gas is regenerated into liquid by applied heat, completing the cycle. These systems use either lithium bromide/water or ammonia/water solutions; water is the refrigerant in the former and ammonia in the latter. Absorption chillers are an alternative to regular compressor chillers where: electricity is unreliable, costly or unavailable; noise from the compressor is problematic; or excess or waste heat can be cost-effectively utilised (e.g. from CHP plant or industrial processes). Absorption chillers are generally classified as direct-fired or indirect-fired. In directfired units, the heat source can be gas or some other fuel that is burned in the unit. As a rule, these devices produce cooling with a higher energy-related carbon output than a mains-driven electrical chiller. Indirect-fired units use steam or some other transfer fluid that brings in heat from a separate source, such as a boiler or heat recovered from combined heat and power (CHP) or an industrial process. Hybrid systems are relatively common and combine absorption chillers with electric systems for load optimisation and flexibility. Capital cost is the primary constraint on the widespread adoption of absorption chiller systems, although as their most effective application is using waste heat in association with CHP systems, the market is also limited. As a result, of all chiller types purchased in 2007 only 2% were of the absorption variety. Absorption chillers are available in a wide range of sizes from 17kW to MW size. The largest market sector for absorption chillers is between 17.6-50 kW, representing 76% of all absorption chiller sales in 2007.
Air-cooled chillers Air-cooled chillers utilise air to cool heat rejection coils. Ambient air is fan-forced over the chillers condenser coil to expel heat into the atmosphere. Compared to water-
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cooled chillers, air-cooled chillers are easier to locate and maintain; require more space, and do not require a dedicated water supply. They are, however, generally less energy efficient than water-cooled units. A range of commercial and industrial applications are available, sized from a few kW to a few MW. In 2007 21% of air-cooled chiller sales were sized 201 350 kW, 12% were less than 17.5 kW, and 5% were over 901 kW. Of all chillers purchased in 2007 88% were of the air-cooled variety.
Water-cooled chillers Water-cooled chillers are used where a high cooling demand exists, such as large commercial and industrial buildings. The improved cooling provided by this type of chiller results in higher system energy efficiency; therefore they will be considered when optimum efficiency is a priority. They can also be considered when a cooling tower is already in place, or where the space available is insufficient to accommodate an air-cooled chiller. The heat rejection water is distributed with a cooling tower by means of a fine spray or splash bars, to create a greater surface area. Ambient air travels through the cooling tower either by natural convection, or forced by a fan when required, and heat is transferred from the water to the air. The resulting exhaust air can be saturated with water vapour resulting in a plume of visible discharge air, if not carefully controlled. 10% of all chillers purchased in 2007 were of the water-cooled variety. The largest market sector was between 100kW to 350kW, comprising 43% of total water-cooled chiller sales in 2007.
Air Handling Units Air handling units (AHUs) manage the distribution of air within a building or space. This is achieved through a combination of exhaust and supply fans, air filters, sound attenuators and heating/cooling coils. The unit is typically connected to ductwork running the span of the space to be conditioned. Cooling and heating coils are fed independently either from a chiller or other refrigeration unit and a boiler. AHUs may also incorporate heat recovery, either through re-circulating exhaust air (known as direct heat recovery) or by extracting only heat from the exhaust stream via a heat exchanger. Almost all of the energy consumption in an AHU is attributable to the fans, which can be fitted with variable speed drives to regulate their frequency of operation enabling them to throttle down when large-volume ventilation is not required. In this evaluation, the AHU market has been simplified to model only the fan and electric drive system. This is because the cooling/heating elements will derive their
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thermal energy from outside of the AHU and will be accounted for in the respective models for chillers or other cooling systems and boilers. Also, other electrical demands inside the AHU are very small compared to that required by the fan.
Schematic of an air handling unit (AHU)
Obtained from http://www.automatedbuildings.com/news/aug08/reviews/080725081501computrol.htm
Fan Coil Units A fan coil unit (FCU) is a simple device consisting of a cooling and/or heating coil and fan. It is part of an HVAC system found in residential, commercial, and industrial buildings. Typically a fan coil unit is used to control the temperature in the space where it is installed, or serve multiple spaces. It is controlled either by a manual on/off switch, a thermostat or by a building management system. In this evaluation, the FCU market has been simplified to model only the fan and electric drive system. This is because the cooling/heating elements will derive their thermal energy from outside of the FCU and will be accounted for in their respective models. Also, other electrical demands inside the FCU are very small compared to that required by the fan.
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Ownership & stock
2.1 Summary
Figure 1 Central Air Conditioning Plant stock
Table 1 Summary figures stock (model output) Stock 2008 - 2030 AirWater cooled cooled Chiller chillers
32,133 39,299 46,217 5,669 7,364 10,593
Year
2010 2020 2030
TOTAL
1,363,440 1,296,688 1,461,116
Absorption Chiller
917 1,389 2,448
AHU
224,445 247,209 235,958
FCUs
1,100,276 1,001,427 1,165,900
2.2 Data sources stock

No direct data available derived from sales data see below.
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2.3 Methodology & key assumptions - stock

2.3.1 Historic data
Table 2 Interpolation & background calculations stock data Year Product type
All
Methodology & assumptions

The modelling adopted is sales-based. It calculates stock automatically using a sales projection, the product lifetime and a sales churn calculation which accounts for products purchased in previous years gradually being taken out of commission at the end of their lifetime. Real stock data are put in as a check only, to help evaluate the output sales from the model. This data series is usually incomplete. Stock data obtained from sales data of MTP model 2008. Stock data calculated in MTP model from earliest obtainable recorded sales data from BSRIA (2007) report. Stock data calculated in MTP model from recorded sales data from BSRIA (2009) report. Assumption that in year of products introduction to the market, 460 units were sold. Thereafter, sales increased linearly by 1,490 units each year. Consistent with expert opinion and anecdotal evidence, although precise rate of growth may vary. Stock data obtained from sales data of MTP model 2008.
1981 2001 2002 2003 2008 1960 1985
All chillers, AHUs All All FCUs
1986 2001
FCUs
2.3.2 Future analysis Table 3 Extrapolation & background calculations stock data Year Product type
All

The modelling adopted is sales-based. It calculates stock automatically using a sales projection, the product lifetime and a sales churn calculation which accounts for products purchased in previous years gradually leaving stock. For sales assumptions, see Section 3.
2.4 Data issues stock

Table 4 Data issues stock Issue/risk
All stock estimates have been derived from sales data. Projected absorption & air-cooled chiller and AHU stock data may be inaccurate.
Approach taken/rationale
Obtained best available sales and lifetime data from approved industry research body BSRIA. Correlation with any available stock data may be required. Stock data obtained from projected sales data, based on latest extrapolation from BSRIA (out to 2012) and then on expected market factors.
2.5 Confidence level

The confidence level indicated below is due to limited sales data (5 years).
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Figure 2 Confidence indicator for stock data

Data quantity / size of data set
HIGH
LOW LOW HIGH Source integrity / robustness of data
Sales
3.1 Summary
Absorption chillers In the medium to long-term (beyond 2012), the key factors envisaged to affect absorption chiller sales include technological improvements and changing climatic conditions (e.g. excessively warm summers and higher average temperatures).
Air-cooled chillers BSRIA reports that currently, air-cooled chillers account for 88% of the chiller market, and further expansion of this market share over the years to 2030 is unlikely. Current, recession-related stagnation is expected to be followed by modest growth related to the 2012 Olympics. Although overall sales may grow in the long term due to new construction, lack of alternative technologies for large chillers, and an additional demand for cooling, the rate of growth may be 1% pa, as is modelled from 2017.
Water cooled chillers For water-cooled chillers, BSRIA notes that 100-300kW units dominate the market and that there is a general trend of growth in this product sector due to perceived energy efficiency. Continued growth is expected from 2008 2014. From 2014 2022 the sales are modelled to fluctuate as the technology seeks to assert itself as an alternative to small air-cooled chillers, given the trend away from high Specific Fan Powers (SFPs) and large volumes of air for cooling. From 2022, sales are modelled to grow at a rate of 7% pa, at a time when air-cooled units that were installed during the economic recovery and the Olympics reach the end of their economically serviceable lives and water-cooled systems are installed as more efficient alternatives.
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Air handling units Sales are projected to decrease in line with the overall trend seen from recorded sales data. However, a temporary surge in sales is expected from 2015 to 2016 which demonstrates a degree of volatility in the market seen between 1990 and 1998. Thereafter, the AHU market trend is downward as competing technologies and natural ventilation strategies reduce market demand.
Fan Coil Units FCUs are present in medium sized systems and a large proportion of larger ones. As a consequence sales are very sensitive to the construction of air-conditioned buildings, and construction of a few large buildings can cause a significant and temporary increase in sales. Thus the market is very volatile. This volatility is reflected in the measured sales data from BSRIA. The projections before and after the period reported by BSRIA do not show such volatility due to smoothing. A gradual increase in market demand over the years leading up to the late 1990s is followed by higher sales as a result of a surge in construction of large, air conditioned buildings. After volatile demand early this century, growth in sales are expected to resume, and projections are based on a steadier rate of growth through to 2030.
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Figure 3 Summary figures sales
Table 5 Summary figures sales Sales Absorption chillers

75 118 222
Year
2010 2020 2030
TOTAL
70,330 87,291 105,960
Air-cooled chillers
1,981 2,947 3,255
Water cooled chillers

337 502 904
AHUs
12,083 13,309 11,442
FCUs
55,854 70,415 90,137
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3.2 Data sources - sales

Table 6 Sales data sources
Year Product type Reference Reference date Author Justification Confidence in sources (High/Low)
1980 2001 2002
All chillers, AHUs All chillers
Expert assumption BSRIA Report 19653/6A Chillers (UK) Sept 2007
October 2008 February 2009
MTP Technical Expert BSRIA
2003 2008
All chillers
BSRIA Report 50571/6A Ed2 Chillers (UK) Jan 2009
February 2009
BSRIA
2009 2012
All chillers
BSRIA Report 50571/6A Ed2 Chillers (UK) Jan 2009
February 2009
BSRIA
2013 2030
All chillers
Expert assumption
February 2009
MTP Technical Expert
1960 1985 1986 2001 1960 1979
FCUs
Expert assumption Expert assumption Expert assumption
March 2009
FCUs
October 2008 March 2009
MTP Technical Expert BSRIA
AHUs
Only data source available Recorded sales data from this leading trade body used to compile stock data in MTP model Recorded sales data from this leading trade body used to compile stock data in MTP model Sales data projected by this leading trade body used to compile stock data in MTP model Expert judgment of sales data used to compile stock data in MTP model Only data source available Only data source available Only data source available
Low
High
High
High
Low
Low
Low
Low
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Year
Product type
Reference
Reference date
Author
Justification
Confidence in sources (High/Low)
2002
AHUs
BSRIA Report 19653/6B Airside Products (UK) Nov 2007 BSRIA Report 19653/6B Airside Products (UK) Sept 2007 BSRIA Report 50571/6B Ed2 Airside Products (UK) Jan 2009 BSRIA Report 50571/6B Ed2 Airside Products (UK) Jan 2009 Expert assumption
March 2009
BSRIA
2002
FCUs
February 2009
BSRIA
2003 2008
AHUs, FCUs
February 2009
BSRIA
20092012
AHUs, FCUs
February 2009
BSRIA
2013 2030
AHUs, FCUs
February 2009
Recorded sales data from this leading trade body used to compile stock data in MTP model Recorded sales data from this leading trade body used to compile stock data in MTP model Recorded sales data from this leading trade body used to compile stock data in MTP model Sales data projected by this leading trade body used to compile stock data in MTP model Expert judgment of sales data used to compile stock data in MTP model
High
High
High
High
Low
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3.3 Methodology & key assumptions sales

3.3.1 Historic data Table 7 Interpolation & background calculations sales data Year
1980 2001 2002 2003 2008 1960 1979 1980 2001 1960 1985
Product type
All chillers All All AHUs AHUs FCUs

Sales data obtained from 2008 MTP model. Earliest obtainable recorded sales data from BSRIA (2007) report. Recorded sales data from BSRIA (2009) report. Expert assumption on linear increase in sales of 370 units per year from starting value of 100 units sold in 1960. Sales data obtained from 2008 MTP model. Assumption that in year of products introduction to the market, 460 units were sold. Thereafter, sales increased uniformly by 1,490 units each year. Consistent with expert opinion and anecdotal evidence, although precise rate of growth may vary. Sales data obtained from 2008 MTP model.
1986 2001
FCUs
3.3.2 Future analysis Table 8 extrapolation & background calculations sales data Year
20092012 20132015 20162019
Product type
All Absorption chillers Absorption chillers

Projection of sales made in BSRIA (2009) report. 2% pa growth rate due to weathering of economic downturn until 2012 by the product market and reflecting an expanding construction market (especially for development-sized projects) due to Olympics legacy projects. 5% pa growth in the market due to increased application of CHP systems, which are proving popular for large-scale public sector projects such as hospitals and new school buildings under the Building Schools for the Future (BSF) Programme. 6% pa growth to reflect increased popularity of the product in displacing aircooled chillers in some applications, due to trend moving away from large volumes of air for cooling. 6.5% pa growth due to increased uptake by the market in light of applications using CHP systems and potentially solar absorption cooling towards the end of this time period. This is a conservative estimate, as BSRIA notes that a higher rate of uptake would only be achieved through Government incentives. That sales will behave as described by the BSRIA (2009) reports assertion that post-2012 will see recovery in the construction market and this market will be buoyed, in part, by new construction from Olympics legacy development. As such, a 4% growth rate is modelled to represent market recoil. A 6% pa growth rate is assumed as a consequence of Olympic legacy development.
20202023 20232030
Absorption chillers Absorption chillers
20132014
Air-cooled chillers
20152016
Air-cooled chillers
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Year
20172030
Product type
Air-cooled chillers

Conservative growth of 1% pa estimated due to stable market (albeit with a higher proportion of large-size chillers being sold).This is modelled to continue the general growth trend in the market seen since the product was introduced, but increased competition from water-cooled chillers is expected. 4% pa growth rate as a consequence of new construction instigated by development related to the Olympics legacy developments and the expected stability of the construction market by this time. 7% pa growth to reflect increased popularity of the product in displacing aircooled chillers in some applications. 2% pa decline in market due to assumed volatility such as market prices etc. This is to reflect that water-cooled chiller products will initially struggle to displace the established market of air-cooled chiller equipment. 7% pa growth to reflect increased popularity of the product in displacing aircooled chillers in some applications. 2% pa decline in market due to assumed volatility such as market prices etc. This is to reflect that water-cooled chiller products will initially struggle to displace the established market of air-cooled chiller products. 7% pa growth estimated as these units replace the air-cooled chillers installed during the (expected) 2012 construction period which reach the end of their serviceable lives. Assumption that sales will behave as described by a 1% pa growth rate in sales after 2012. This is in line with recorded trends obtained from BSRIA (2009) report. A short, sharp increase in sales resulting in 5% pa growth in the market is modelled as a response to a surge in replacement demand for units installed around 2000. As decentralised cooling and other technologies reach technological maturity in the market place, diversification into other technologies is not projected until uptake of other ventilation technologies is proven successful. A steady decline in the market of 1.5% pa is modelled to reflect the replacement of the product by other technologies and natural ventilation strategies. A general trend of 1% pa growth is assumed due to prevailing opinion in engineering industry that decentralised air conditioning constitutes good practice design. This is commensurate with improvements in the technology that have seen the trend to move away from AC units to DC (electronically commutated) units that are more efficient and require less maintenance. A general trend of 2.5% pa growth is assumed due to prevailing opinion in engineering industry that decentralised air conditioning constitutes good practice design. This is commensurate with improvements in the technology that have seen the trend away from AC units to DC (electronically commutated) units that are more efficient and require less maintenance.
2013
Water cooled chillers Water cooled chillers Water cooled chillers Water cooled chillers Water cooled chillers Water cooled chillers AHUs
20142015 20162017 20182019 20202022 20232030 2013 2014 2015 2016
AHUs
2017 2030 2013 2015
AHUs
FCUs
2016 2030
FCUs
3.4 Data issues - sales

Table 9 Data issues sales Issue/risk
Small sample of chiller sales data.
Best available sales data has been sourced from leading trade research body BSRIA.
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3.5 Confidence level

Confidence level rationale based on sales data for only 5 years and related uncertainties.
Figure 4 Confidence indicator for sales data

HIGH
Usage & lifespan

3.6 Summary
Average usage hours have been assumed in the following table, reflecting the variety of uses within the air-conditioning market. Whilst the usage values described portray a reasonable picture of product usage, they may not accurately convey the patterns of usage associated with the following: o Specific weather events such as an especially warm week in summer o A general trend towards a warmer climate, as outlined by UKCIP02 o Expected improvements in the building stock such as passive design and the associated reduced cooling requirement o Unit cost of electricity o The effect of intelligent building systems to accurately control provision of cooling to meet with demand. Table 10 Usage hours per unit in Reference, Policy and BAT Scenarios Usage (hours/year) Water Absorption Air-cooled cooled AHUs FCUs chillers chillers Year chillers
2010 2020 2030 5,000 5,000 5,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 2,500 2,500 2,500 3,120 3,120 3,120 3,120 3,120 3,120
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Table 11 Average lifespan of unit in Reference, Policy and BAT Scenarios Lifespan (years) Water Absorption Air-cooled cooled AHUs FCUs chillers chillers Year chillers
2010 2020 2030 17.5 17.5 17.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 15.5 15.5 15.5
3.7 Data sources usage & lifespan

Table 12 Usage data sources Year Product type Reference Reference Author date Justific ation Confidenc e in sources (High/Low)
Low
1980 2030
1980 2030
Absorption & Air-cooled chillers, AHUs, FCUs Water cooled chillers
Expert assumption
October 2008
MTP Technical Expert MTP Technical Expert
Only data source available Only data source available
Expert assumption
April 2009
Low
Table 13 Lifespan data sources Year Product type Reference Reference Author date Justific ation Confidenc e in sources (High/Low)
Low
1980 2030
All
Expert assumption
October 2008
Only data source available
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3.8 Methodology & key assumptions usage & lifespan

Data has been sourced according to the methodology and assumptions as shown in Table 16.
3.8.1 Historic data

Table 14 Interpolation & background calculations usage & lifespan data Year
Usage 1980 - 2008

Assumption that usage remained constant during this time, and will not be significantly affected by environmental factors or quality/quantity of UK building stock. Assumption that products have a constant lifespan.
Lifespan 1980 - 2008
3.8.2 Future analysis

Table 15 Extrapolation & background calculations usage & lifespan data Year
Lifespan 2009 - 2030 Usage 2009 - 2030

Assumption that lifespan will not be significantly affected due to technological or policy effects. Absorption chillers; Absorption chillers have higher capital costs than electric alternatives. Because of this, they are more likely to be used in applications requiring longer running hours. Thus 5,000 hours of annual usage estimated is higher than those assumed for conventional air and water cooled chillers. Air-cooled chillers: Some chillers, especially the smaller ones, will operate for quite short periods, essentially for cooling at peak times only. Others will have much longer running hours, throughout the summer season or all year. This is represented by an average operating time of 1000 hours per year. Water cooled chillers: Some water cooled chillers will operate for very short periods, essentially cooling at peak times only. Other chillers will have much longer running hours throughout the summer season or all year. However, water cooled chillers will tend to be installed in locations with higher cooling demands. 2,500 hours of annual usage is chosen to represent the overall average of this varied market. Air Handling Units (AHUs): Annual usage of 3,120 hours is chosen to represent a typical year of cooling requirements across the AHU market. The figure represents 12 hours for 5 days a week, reflecting the typical applications of AHUs in commercial buildings where ventilation and air conditioning may be required throughout operational periods. Fan Coil Units: Air conditioning systems using fan-coil units are mostly installed in office buildings. These systems operate for slightly extended office hours, which equates to approximately 2,000 2,500 hours per year. Some FCUs operate continuously. 3,120 usage hours per year represents a weighted average equivalent to operation at 60 hours/week.
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3.9 Data issues usage & lifespan

Table 16 Data issues usage & lifespan Issue/risk
Usage No change (either historic or projected) in usage data suggests it is independent of quality of building stock and prevailing climate. Value of usage hours of chillers may be inaccurate. Constant usage implies lack of technology diversification for particular cooling requirements. Lifespan The lifespan of the product does not change over the entire period 1980-2030 (1960-2030 for AHUs) as would be expected through a better use of materials, etc.
Maintaining constant usage allows the reference line to act as a suitable control case. An investigation into probable degree days and penetration of efficient building envelopes in the market would be required to improve this significantly Hours of usage deemed to be a reasonable annual average in non-domestic buildings for chillers, in the absence of data to the contrary Projected usage does not show market capture of absorption chillers by any other technology.
A changing lifespan would skew the stock model, and therefore energy consumption considerably, either reducing the impact of energy efficiency or exaggerating them. A constant lifespan as a single frame of reference has been used in the absence of reliable data.
3.10 Confidence level usage & lifespan

HIGH
Figure 5 Confidence indicator for usage & lifespan data
Related MTP information
BNCAC02: Central Plant Air Conditioning Units Government Standards Evidence Base 2009: Reference Scenario
BNCAC03: Central Plant Air Conditioning Units Government Standards Evidence Base 2009: Policy Scenario
BNCAC04: Central Plant Air Conditioning Units Government Standards Evidence Base 2009: Best Available Technology Scenario
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BNCAC KO01: Central Plant Air Conditioning Units Government Standards Evidence Base 2009: Key Outputs
Changes from previous version
This is the second publication.
Consultation and further information Stakeholders are encouraged to review this document and provide suggestions that may improve the quality of information provided, email info@mtprog.com quoting the document reference, or call the MTP enquiry line on +44 (0) 845 600 8951. For further information on related issues visit http://efficientproducts.defra.gov.uk
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BNCAC01: Central Air Conditioning Plant, Government Standards Evidence Base 2009: Key Inputs

1.1 Product Definitions

http://efficient-products.defra.gov.uk 0845 600 8951

http://efficient-products.defra.gov.uk 0845 600 8951

http://efficient-products.defra.gov.uk 0845 600 8951

Obtained from http://www.automatedbuildings.com/news/aug08/reviews/080725081501computrol.htm

http://efficient-products.defra.gov.uk 0845 600 8951

Ownership & stock

Figure 1 Central Air Conditioning Plant stock

2.2 Data sources stock

http://efficient-products.defra.gov.uk 0845 600 8951

2.3 Methodology & key assumptions - stock

Methodology & assumptions

1981 2001 2002 2003 2008 1960 1985

All chillers, AHUs All All FCUs

Methodology & assumptions

2.4 Data issues stock

2.5 Confidence level

http://efficient-products.defra.gov.uk 0845 600 8951

Figure 2 Confidence indicator for stock data

LOW LOW HIGH Source integrity / robustness of data

http://efficient-products.defra.gov.uk 0845 600 8951

http://efficient-products.defra.gov.uk 0845 600 8951

Figure 3 Summary figures sales

Table 5 Summary figures sales Sales Absorption chillers

Water cooled chillers

http://efficient-products.defra.gov.uk 0845 600 8951

3.2 Data sources - sales

1980 2001 2002

All chillers, AHUs All chillers

Expert assumption BSRIA Report 19653/6A Chillers (UK) Sept 2007

October 2008 February 2009

MTP Technical Expert BSRIA

BSRIA Report 50571/6A Ed2 Chillers (UK) Jan 2009

BSRIA Report 50571/6A Ed2 Chillers (UK) Jan 2009

MTP Technical Expert

1960 1985 1986 2001 1960 1979

Expert assumption Expert assumption Expert assumption

October 2008 March 2009

MTP Technical Expert BSRIA

MTP Technical Expert

http://efficient-products.defra.gov.uk 0845 600 8951

Confidence in sources (High/Low)

MTP Technical Expert

http://efficient-products.defra.gov.uk 0845 600 8951

3.3 Methodology & key assumptions sales

Methodology & assumptions

Methodology & assumptions

Absorption chillers Absorption chillers

http://efficient-products.defra.gov.uk 0845 600 8951

Methodology & assumptions

20142015 20162017 20182019 20202022 20232030 2013 2014 2015 2016

2017 2030 2013 2015

3.4 Data issues - sales

http://efficient-products.defra.gov.uk 0845 600 8951

3.5 Confidence level

Figure 4 Confidence indicator for sales data

LOW LOW HIGH Source integrity / robustness of data

Usage & lifespan

http://efficient-products.defra.gov.uk 0845 600 8951

3.7 Data sources usage & lifespan

Absorption & Air-cooled chillers, AHUs, FCUs Water cooled chillers

MTP Technical Expert MTP Technical Expert

Only data source available Only data source available