TECHNICAL REPORT SERIES

Development of a model of the World Refining for the POLES model:

the OURSE model

EUR 21864 EN

Institute for Prospective Technological Studies

The mission of the IPTS is to provide customer-driven support to the EU policy-making process by researching sciencebased responses to policy challenges that have both a socio-economic as well as a scientific/technological dimension.

Development of a model of the World Rening for the POLES model:

the OURSE model
Contract n21529-2003-12 F1SC SEV FR with Institut franais du ptrole

coordinated by Frdric LANTZ with Jean-Franois GRUSON and Valrie SAINT-ANTONIN

June 2005

EUR 21864 EN

European Commission Joint Research Centre (DG JRC) Institute for Prospective Technological Studies http://www.jrc.es

Legal notice Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of the information.

Technical Report EUR 21864 EN

European Communities, 2005

Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.

Printed in Spain

the OURSE model Preface Executive summary 1. Introduction: objective of the model 2. Description of the rening linear programming model 2.1 Balances of intermediate and nal products 2.2 Demand equations 2.3 Product quality control 2.4 Capacity constraints 2.5 Crude oil supply 2.6 Pollutant emission 2.7 Objective function 3. Marginal cost pricing 4. General framework and data of the OURSE model 4.1 Introduction 4.2 A representative deep conversion renery 4.3 Petroleum products 4.4 Geographical areas 4.5 Crude oil supply 4.6 Crude oil prices and exchanges prices of oil products 5. Calibration of the model - year 2000 5.1 Software and algorithms for optimization 5.2 Summary output 5.3 Assumptions for the calibration run on year 2000 5.4 Summary and analysis of the simulation for year 2000 5.4.1 Analysis of the primal results 5.4.1.1 Reneries throughput 5.4.1.2 crude oil supply, oil products balances and calibration equations Figure 6 Growing transportation cost of oil products 5.4.2 Analysis of the dual results

1 5 7 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 13 13 14 16 16 16 18 19 20 21 23 23 23 23 24 25 25 26 28 28

Development of a model of the World Rening for the POLES model: the OURSE model

Table of contents

Table of contents

6. Example of results for 2020 6.1 General assumptions 6.2 Results 7. Ourse managed by vensim 7.1 General overview 7.2 Running a Gams programme in Vensim 7.3 Input and output les 7.4 C programme or subroutine to drive gams 7.5 Rening model optimization 7.6 Gams rening model 7.6.1 Basic rening model 7.6.2 Crude oil supply and oil product ows 7.6.4 CO2 emission 7.6.5 Limitation of investments 7.6.6 Objective function Conclusion References Annex 1- Rening units of the OURSE model and rening capacities in 2000 Annex 2 - Nomenclature of the oil products Annex 3 - Rening model areas and regions of the world in the Poles model Annex 4 - Crude oil freight costs Annex 5 - Results of the calibration run - year 2000 Annex 6 Description of the vensim external functions Annex 7 Gams rening model

30 30 32 34 34 34 35 36 37 38 38 39 40 41 41 42 43 44 46 47 48 49 55 62

Preface

IPTS core mission and competence within the JRCs mandate is in the field of technoeconomic analysis, aiming at providing input and guidance for the policy making process. The energy industry is one of those sectors to which particular attention is given, due to its pervasive entangling with the entire socio-economic system. Several analytical tools have been developed and/or exploited by IPTS and its partners in order to base those quantitative analyses on solid and robust grounds. This publication is the result of a collaboration between IPTS and the Institut Francais du Ptrole (IFP) in the framework of the development and improvement of the POLES model, one of the main tools of quantitative analysis in use at IPTS. The development of a model of the World Refining for the POLES model was motivated by the need to capture the behaviour of the refining sector, international trade flows of refined products and the environmental performance of the refining industry, under alternative policy options and technological assumptions, bearing in mind the present tensions within international oil markets. The OURSE model has been developed by IFP, according to the technical specifications and requirements designed by IPTS to guarantee its full exploitability together with POLES and POLES-compatible models. The IPTS has decided to publish this report by the IFP with the twofold scope of describing a simplified scheme of the structure of this industrial sector and to serve as a reference (model description and techno-economic characterization) for further works and model exploitation.

Antonio Soria Action Leader in Energy and Climate Change

Executive summary

The World oil refining industry faces to several challenges such as the increasing oil derivatives demand in the transport sector, the improvement of the specifications of these products, the crude oil availability and the limitation of carbon emissions. An aggregated refining model linked to the POLES energy model has been developped to study these questions. The OURSE (Oil is Used in Refineries to Supply Energy) model is a worldwide aggregated refining model which is designed to simulate the world oil product supply for the POLES (Prospective Outlook for the Long-term Energy System) model. OURSE is able to simulate the impact on the world refining industry of changes in the crude oil supply (in costs and qualities) as in the oil product demand (in terms of level, structure and specifications). OURSE also enables to assess the consequences of a carbon emission regulation (bounds and taxes) as the adoption of various kinds of alternative fuel policies. More precisely, these impacts are evaluated as regards the world refining structure (investments), but also its balance (production and trade of petroleum products), its pollutant emissions (CO2 and SO2) and its costs (of production, investments, etc.). OURSE is based on a linear programming (LP) model that is frequently used in the refining industry, both for refinery management and investment analysis, since a marginal cost pricing is relevant for the oil products. Designed to represent the world-wide refining industry into the POLES model, the OURSE model has to contain a restricted number of equations. This justifies that OURSE includes a techno-economic description of a typical refinery according to local characteristics for nine aggregated refining regions in the world that are North and central America, Latin America, North and South Europe, CIS, Africa, Middle East, China, Other Asia and Oceania. Similarly, since directly linked to the number of crude oils considered, the model size is also reduced by considering, for each world refining area, an aggregated crude oil supply based on five representative crude oil qualities in the model. Lastly, a multi-plant approach is considered to make the OURSE model able to represent the oil product exchanges between the main regions in the world. Developed on both the Vensim software and the Gams software, the first version of the OURSE model contains around 14 000 constraints and 66 000 variables. The model is managed by Vensim which loads Gams to run the refining optimization model. By combining an interior point method with a simplex method (using the Cplex optimization code), the OURSE calibration run on year 2000 points out a 5% percentage error for the refining throughput and a 15% percentage error for the marginal costs of the products. Based on scenarii about the world oil product demand, the crude oil slate and prices and different environmental policies, some long-term simulations are performed to assess the world oil product prices as the potential investments required in the world oil refining industry and the CO2 emissions from this processing industry.

1. Introduction: objective of the model

The objective of the model is to represent the refining and petrochemical activity at a world scale level. It will be included in the POLES (Prospective Outlook for the Long-term Energy System) model. Linear programming (LP) models are frequently used in the refining industry, both for refinery management and for investment analysis. As marginal cost pricing is relevant for the oil products, an LP model should be built for the refining model of POLES. The acronym of the refining model is OURSE - Oil is Used in Refineries to Supply Energy . Because the model designed to represent the world-wide refining industry must have a limited number of equations, a representative refinery has been defined for a restricted number of regions in the world (corresponding to the POLES nomenclature). Moreover the crude oil supply has been aggregated (the size of the model is directly linked to the number of crude oil which are introduced in the model). Finally, as the model has to represent the oil product exchanges between the main regions in the world, a multi-refinery approach is considered. The oil refinery modelling in an energy model such as the POLES model involves the determination of the refining throughput, the investment pattern and the marginal costs through a model which represents this processing activity. As explained before, a linear programming (LP) model should be built to represent the the refining industry. The model will represent the refining industry (transformation of crude oil and other feedstocks in oil derivatives) and the petrochemical industry (aromatic and olefin production). The main input of the model are (i) the oil product demand (in terms of both quantities and specifications), (ii) the crude oil availability, (iii) the CO2 emissions restrictions and taxes. The main output are (i) the refineries throughput (activity level), (ii) the products blending, (iii) the products trade, (iv) the investments (technology dynamic of the refining processes), (v) the marginal costs of oil products (supply prices), and (vi) the pollutant emissions. All the relevant techno-economic characteristics of the oil refining industry (technical processes, investment and operating costs, pollutant emission factors, ect. ) are included in the model. As the model is designed to operate over the period 1997-2030, the most representative actual and future technologies have been be selected. Moreover, the model allows the blending of biomass based derivatives (alcool and esther) as well as GTL (gas to liquid) products. The refining model of POLES is able to simulate the consequences of: - changes of oil product demand such as a modification of the share of the automotive fuels (gasoline and diesel) - changes of specification of oil products (sulphur content of oil products for instance) - carbon emissions regulation (bounds and taxes) - adoption of alternative type of policies.

2. Description of the refining linear programming model

A detailed description of the LP model is beyond the scope of this chapter and requires a lot of mathematical definitions and formulas. The refinery flows are indexed according to an appropriate combination of sub-sets of elements which characterize the crude oils and their types of cuts, the identification of the feeds, the units and their severities, the intermediate and the final products. Also, some of the following equations just give an illustration of the original model which is fully described by Saint-Antonin (1998). 2.1 Balances of intermediate and final products The equations for the intermediate and final products balance the input quantities with the output quantities for each product. In order to obtain linear constraints and as the yields of the processing units are depending on operating conditions, some processes are operated considering different "severities" which represent several runs of the processing unit. The material balance of an intermediate product expresses that the production is equal to the internal use. The production is represented by the multiplication of a yield and a quantity of feed. The yields of a processing unit are different for each severity and also depend on the type of input feed and the processed crude oil (and its distillation cuts). Total internal use is the sum of the possible transfers to finished products, as feed stock to other units, and to refinery fuel. As an example, the flow diagram below (figure 1) displays, for a processing unit, the input feed CH0, the yields (1, 2...) in intermediate products (P1, P2, ...) and the possible use of them (denoted Y1, Y2, ... in quantity term ). Thus, the balance equation of the intermediate product P1 is written as :

1CH0 Yk = 0
k

with the parameter, 1: yield of P1 and the variables, CH0: quantity of processed feed, Yk: product quantity associated to the k-th possible transfer of P1. Figure 1: flows of a processing unit
Y1 CH0 FEED (yields)

1 2

P1 P2

Y2 Y3

process unit

This example is very simplified. Let us consider for example an intermediate product whose quality depends on the type of feed, the severity of the unit, the crude oil and the crude distillation unit cut used. The number of equations relating to this product will be the multiple

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of the number of severity options considered by the number of feed stocks, the number of crude oils and the number of the types of cuts. For a final product balance, the sum of the quantities of the blend components used for the product is equal to the delivered quantity of the finished product. In these two balances, the variables are defined in terms of weight. In some cases, the balances have to be also defined in terms of volume. Therefore, the equations have to be modified by introducing the product's density. A particular balance is the refinery fuel balance. In this equation, the refinery fuel demand is satisfied by either intermediate or final products. These products have different calorific values. Thus, on the supply side, the refinery fuels are weighted according to their calorific value. On the demand side, we consider that the refinery fuel requirement is proportional to the inputs to the processing units. 2.2 Demand equations The supply (production and imports) must equate to demand (domestic consumption and exports). In a multi-refinery model such as the OURSE model, several refining areas have been distinguished. However, each refining area is also an energy demand area and represents a group of countries: this agragated approach is justified in the fourth section. Each domestic consumption (for an area which stands for several countries) could be supplied either by the local refining industry or by an other refinery with a transportation cost. The exchanges of intermediate products between the refineries are not allowed in this model as they only represent limited flows in this context. Consequently, two types of equations have been introduced in the model. The first is related to the refinery supply, the second to the energy demand. Foreign exchanges are introduced in the equations of countries demand as exchanges with the rest of the refining areas. For each refinery r (supply area) and each product i, the refinery demand equation can be written as:
PRO( r, i ) UR( r, i )

TRAN(r, d, i)
d

and, for each delivery point d (energy demand area) and each product i, the domestic demand equation is:

TRAN(r , d , i)
r

= dem(d , i )

with the variables: PRO(r,i): production of i in refinery r TRAN(r,i,d): Delivery of product i from refinery r to country d UR(r,i): Quantity of product i used as refinery fuel in refinery r and the parameter: dem(d,i): Final demand of product i in country d

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2.3 Product quality control The final products must meet a number of legal and technical quality specifications such as the octane number (for gasoline) or the sulphur content (for gas oil and residual fuel oil). Some specification constraints can be written as linear equations. Thus, a linear constraint is obtained by multiplying the intermediate product quantities (in volume or in weight term) by their qualities and by setting a minimum or maximum specification to the final product. When there is no linear relationship, this characteristic is replaced by an index which can be used in a linear constraint. The following example stands for a maximum specification of a quality whose pooling rule is ~ linear in weight terms such as sulphur content of gas oil (product indexed with i in the following equation):

~ carq Zq spe~ PRO(r, i ) 0 i

with, carq: sulphur content of the blend component q of the pool, ~ spe ~ : maximum specification of the final product i (gas oil), i Zq: q-th component quantity of the gas oil pool, ~ PRO(r, i ): final product quantity of gas oil in the refinery r. 2.4 Capacity constraints The input flows of a processing unit are limited by its capacity. Because the oil refinery model is a long-run model it allows capacity expansion. Thus, for each refining unit the capacity constraint can be expressed as: the sum of the input flows (weighted by their delivery coefficients) minus the capacity expansion is lower than or equal to the existing capacity. In the case of a single refinery, the investment cost is generally a non-linear function of the unit size and the capacity expansion has to be treated through several variables associated with different investment costs. However, in an aggregate model, we can assume that capacity expansions are the result of the addition of processing units with given "economic" size, and thus that costs are proportional to capacity increases. 2.5 Crude oil supply The crude oil is first processed in the atmospheric distillation unit. This unit splits crude oil into several cuts: gases, straight-run gasoline, kerosene, straight-run gas oil, residue, etc. Depending upon requirements there is for a given crude oil, some flexibility regarding the quantity of each cut which can be obtained. This flexibility is obtained by a modification of the cut point (temperature at which a product is cut). Therefore each crude oil can be "cut" in different ways. Various set of cuts are introduced in the model (therefore various set of yields at the atmospheric distillation). The total quantity of each crude to be processed must be equal to the sum of the different quantities processed through different sets of cuts. A second type of constraint involving the crude oil supply is added in such an aggregate model. Indeed the crude oil supply corresponds to an oil market structure which is more
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particularly characterized by a set of crude oil prices (which are given parameters of the LP model). However the optimal crude oil structure deduced from the LP model could not obviously reflect a given oil market structure. Also, as the oil price effects are not easy to formalize, the crude oil shares of each refining area have been fixed in the model. As the number of equations of the LP model is approximatly proportianal to the number of crude oils, a limited number of typical crude oil have been defined. For each "crude oil supply" region of the world, the sum of the output flows of crude is bounded by a maximum production level. Furthermore, the sum of the input flows is equal to the crude oil supply of each processing region (each refinery). 2.6 Pollutant emission The pollution that we are dealing with is the atmospheric pollution from the refinery. The pollutant emission comes from the refinery stack emissions, i.e. mainly from the burning fuel. Two equations are also needed to introduce pollutant emission restrictions in the model: the total quantity of pollutant in the refinery fuel and the total quantity of stack emissions. In the first equation, we assume that the pollutant contents of the refinery fuels are proportional to their quantities. The stack emissions are also proportional to the quantities of the refinery fuels burnt. Then, instantaneous or global pollutant emission in the stack emissions can be restricted with an other constraint. Pollution permits can be introduced in the objective function. 2.7 Objective function The objective function to minimize is the refining cost, the supply cost (CIF price of crude oil), the delivery costs of the oil products to the consumption areas and (eventually) pollution permits. The refining cost includes, for each refinery, the processing cost and the investment cost. The investment decision behaviour is a myopic forward process. For each period, investment decision only depends on the current demand and is implemented during the same period. The cost coefficients of the capacity expansion are the annual equivalent investment costs.

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3. Marginal cost pricing

For a joint products industry such as refining industry, there is no single key to the breakdown of the total processing cost by products. But, under some assumptions derived from linear programming models, duality theory leads to marginal costs corresponding to average costs. At the equilibrium indeed the sum of the products of the marginal costs by the associated right-hand-side coefficients of primal constraints is equal under some assumptions to the global processing cost (objective function of the primal problem): this means that the valorization of refined products to their marginal costs corresponds to an income equal to overall costs introduced into the model. This result depends on one necessary condition: only the right-hand-side coefficients of demand constraints must be non-zero. Only long-term planning models fulfil this condition since the capacities of modellised refineries are variables of the problem and are not subsequently limited. In this case, there are no more capacity limitations and capacity investment costs are introduced in the objective function. This is not the case in short-term models where plant capacities are fixed. Moreover, the capacity costs are not present in the short-term objective function, which does not represent the whole of refining costs. One of the concepts of microeconomic theory is the equality of short- and long-run marginal costs (SRMC and LRMC) when capacities of plants are fully adjusted to demand. Nevertheless the curves of both the SRMC and the LRMC of a LP refining model are step function. This property leads to an analysis of the behaviour of both the marginal costs around the equilibrium point. Figure 2 presents general curves of marginal costs as a function of demand. Figure 2: General structure of marginal costs in the refining industry
marginal cost SRMC SRMC2 LRMC

SRMC1

demand
Q0

If Q0 denotes a demand for which refining capacities have been constructed and thus are perfectly adjusted, we observe that around this optimal production the curve of the SRMC increases roughly from a lower value (SRMC1) to a higher value (SRMC2) than the LRMC. The absence of a point of intersection is due to the curves of marginal costs. Each step of these curves corresponds to a change in the solution basis (in LP optimization). Q0 is defined as the production for which refining capacities are adjusted i.e. for which capacity constraints are bounded. If, from Q0, the refiner wants to increase his production, one of the capacity

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slack variables has to be removed from the basic solution. This change in the optimal LP solution leads to an increase in the short-run marginal cost curve of the short-run marginal cost and to the absence of a point of intersection between the two marginal cost curves. Nevertheless, and as in the general microeconomic theory, the SRMC is lower than the LRMC, when demand is lower than Q0, and the SRMC is greater than the LRMC when demand is greater than Q0.

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4. General framework and data of the OURSE model

4.1 Introduction The OURSE model is based on the LP refining model described above. As it has already been mentioned, the refining model is dedicated to the determination of petroleum product prices, of oil and oil producs flows and of investment needs in this industry. The market prices are obtained from the equilibrium between petroleum product demand (from POLES) and supply. For a given year, the oil product prices of POLES are based on the marginal costs of the oil products from OURSE of the previous year. Investment needs are calculated from the long-run LP model with the actual capacities. Production and oil product exchanges are also deduced from this model. Several aggregated refining areas supply the petroleum products in the World. One representative refinery with a reduced crude oil supply represents the refining structure of each area. In the next paragraphs, we describe the representative deep conversion refinery, the oil product demand breakdown, the refining areas and the crude oil supply aggregation which have been settled for the OURSE model. 4.2 A representative deep conversion refinery Important changes in the trend in growth and in the composition of demand for oil products after the first oil shock had a significant impact on the structure of the European refining industry. The basic hydroskimming refinery could thus no longer meet requirements by processing a medium crude oil and it was therefore necessary to add processing units to obtain a much lighter product mix from the same type of crude oil. Nowadays a typical refinery required to supply a large proportion of light products (gasoline) or middle products (diesel oil) must have a series of upgrading units downstream from the atmospheric distillation unit, enabling it to convert the heavy cuts into light or middle distillate cuts. The retained refining structure initially consisted in the most common processing units, among which an atmospheric distillation unit, a vacuum distillation unit, a catalytic reforming unit, a gas oil hydrodesulfurization unit, a MTBE unit as well as an ETBE, a catalytic cracker and four types of hydrocracker, combined with alkylation and isomerisation units to improve the quality of the gasoline pool, and visbreaking and coking units to process residues from these units. The coking process is indeed a deep conversion unit; nevertheless this technique is used in several refineries. This conversion refinery is relevant to the current structure of both demand and supply, but it may need to be adapted in line with future developments or in some scenarios considered over the next thirty years. To face the possible evolutions of demand and measures that could be adopted about the tightening of petroleum product specifications such as reduction in the sulphur content in diesel oil and heavy fuel oil, additional deep conversion units have been added in the modellised refining structure. The chosen deep conversion scheme is made up of a C5 desasphalting unit, a DAO hydrotreating unit, a partial oxydation unit and a deep hydrodesulfurization unit. The refining scheme is presented in figure 3 and the complete list of the processing units as well as the world-wide refining capacities are given in Annex 1. We assume the technical data are the same for all the refining areas because there is no technological barrier for such an industry in the World.

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Figure 3 - a representative deep-conversion refinery

Refining costs can be considered in three different categories: operating variable costs, fixed running costs and capital charges. The operating variable costs in the LP model include the catalysts, solvents and chemicals. The investment for a unit is calculated from the total cost of the equipment located within the battery limits. The battery limits investments (B.L.I.) includes the civil works, the piping located within the unit area, electrical installations, instrumentation, etc. Anything outside the refining units, such as product lines, administrative installations, storage facilities and units to produce utilities (steam, electricity, water, ...), that is not included in B.L.I., constitute off-sites of a refinery: their costs are estimated as a part of B.L.I., suited to each refining unit. The calculation of equivalent investment costs and fixed running costs are both based on the sum of the B.L.I. and off-sites. Fixed running costs -maintenance, labour, taxes, insurances and administrative expenditures- are considered as a share of the sum of B.L.I. and off-sites. Also, the equivalent investment cost which is introduced in the LP model is based on the depreciable capital cost cc(j) defined for a unit j as

cc( j ) = (bli( j ) + offs( j )) * (1 + ec) * (1 + rc) * (1 + fc)

where bli(j) and offs(j) are the B.L.I. and the off-sites costs of the unit j, ec is the engineering cost rate, rc is the process royalty rate and fc is the rate of the other financial costs.

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4.3 Petroleum products The oil product categories, which are considered in POLES, are classically: liquefied petroleum products (LPG), gasoline and naphtha, middle distillates and heavy distillates. Naphtha is used as a raw material for petrochemicals as well as various special gasoline and solvents. Gasoline are split into different products depending upon octane numbers and lead contents ; middle distillates include kerosene (jet fuel), diesel oil and heating oil ; in the heavy products there are two heavy fuel oils with different sulphur contents (1% and 3.5%), and bitumen and petroleum coke. Further, in two cases the oil module requires a more detailed product breakdown than the demand module. First, propane and butane are distinguished in the LPG. Secondly, disparities in gasoline consumption between countries lead to distinguish five gasoline grades - denoed RG, RQ, ES, EQ, PR- differing in their specifications (cf. Table 1). There is no quality control for liquefied petroleum gas and naphtha. The four types of gasoline have to meet actual quality specifications such as specific gravity, vapour pressure, research and motor octane number and lead content. Aromatic, olefin and oxygen contents are also considered for the future and/or investigated specifications of gasoline. The middle distillates and the heavy fuel oils are subject to quality constraints as specific gravity, sulphur content, pour point and viscosity and diesel oil has to meet a minimum cetane number. As it has be done for gasoline, four diesel oil qualities have been distinguished denoted DO, DQ, DV, DU (cf. Table 2) Table 1 - Specifications of the gasoline grades (year 2000)
RG Density min Density max Road vapor pressure RON MON Aromatic max Olefine max Oxygenate max Sulfur max Benzene max 0.72 0.775 0.8 92 82 30 12 2.7 0.05 1 RQ 0.72 0.775 0.8 95 85 30 12 2.7 0.05 1 ES 0.72 0.775 0.8 90 80 55 30 2.7 0.1 5 EQ 0.72 0.775 0.8 94 84 45 20 2.7 0.05 3 PR 0.72 0.775 0.8 95 85 42 18 2.7 0.015 1

Table 2 - Specifications of diesel oil (year 2000)

DO Density min Density max Sulfur max. Freezing point Viscosity Cetane Poly-aromatics max 0.82 0.86 0.05 -5 2 45 7 DQ 0.82 0.88 0.2 -5 2 45 11 DV 0.82 0.845 0.035 -5 2 51 11 DU 0.82 0.88 0.7 -5 2 45 20

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Nevertheless, there is no such detailed distinction between the oil products on the demand side. Consequently, the oil products have been classified according to two nomenclatures (cf. Annex 2) : - (1) General nomenclature which reflect the main product's families. This definition is used for the oil product demand. - (2) refineries nomenclature which is used inside the LP model The oil product demand is splitted from the general definition (1) to the LP refining model oil product definition (2) through translation tables. The two following Tables give the correspondance between gasoline grades and diesel oil according to the regional area.

Table 3 - Shares of gasoline grades according to the regional areas

RG North & Central South North South CIS Africa Middle China Other Asia & America America Europe Europe 70% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% RQ 30% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ES 0% 100% 0% 0% 80% 100% 0% 60% 0% EQ 0% 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 100% 40% 100% PR 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

East Oceania

Table 4 - Shares of diesel oil qualities according to the regional areas

North & Central South North South CIS Africa Middle China Other Asia & America America Europe Europe DO 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 60% DQ 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 20% DV 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% DU 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 100% 20%

East Oceania

4.4 Geographical areas As the model permits exchanges of petroleum products between the main regions in the world, the refining industry has been split into several geographical areas. However we have considered refining areas rather than the 47 "POLES" countries and regions in order to reduce the size of the LP model and to be in accordance with some of the previous hypothesis which are only valid for aggregate refining structures. Thus, in each refining area, we can assume that the crude oils are processed together and that there is only one investment variable for each unit. Moreover the model implicitly allows intermediate product exchanges inside each area.

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The geographical considerations upon crude oil supply and petroleum product demand, and the technical analysis of the refineries lead to nine refining areas being defined in the world:

Table 5 - Regional areas of the OURSE model

Area 1 - Z1 Area 2 - Z2 Area 3 - Z3 Area 4 - Z4 Area 5 - Z5 Area 6 - Z6 Area 7 - Z7 Area 8 - Z8 Area 9 - Z9 North and Central America : Canada, USA, Mexico Latin America, North Europe : all Europe except South Europe South Europe : Italy, Greece, Portugal, Spain, Turkey,Croatia, Slovenia, Former Yougoslavia Former Soviet Union (CIS) Africa Middle East China Other Asia

The general denominations "Latin America", "Former Soviet Union", "Africa", "Middle East" are those which are used by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its statistical yearbooks (energy balances). The correspondance between the POLES nomenclature and the refining model areas is given in appendix 3.

Figure 4 Regional refining areas

4.5 Crude oil supply Several dozen different crude oils are processed in these regions of the World even if the concentration curves show that a large part of the supply is made up of only a few of them. Because the size of a LP model is approximately proportional to the number of crude oils considered, it is impossible to represent all of them in the refining model. Consequently the crude oil supply has been "reduced" through a limited number of representative crude oils. Both empirical methods (crude oil assimilation by analogy) and multivariate data analysis methods (using crude oil characteristics) have been used for this purpose. Detailed explanations on the crude oil supply aggregation are given by Bond and al. (1977). Five crude oils have been selected to represent the crude oil supply (cf. Table 6). The yields of

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these crude oil at the topping unit are given in Table 7: the letters A and B in the first column denote the two cuts for each crude (for example 1A stands for crude "brent" - cut A).

Table 6 - Typical crude oil in the OURSE model Code 11 22 33 44 55 Name Brent Arabian Light Arabian Heavy Forcados Condensate API 37.0 33.4 27.9 31.0 > 50.0 Sulphur content 0.32 %m 1.86 %m 2.69 %m 0.20 %m < 0.10 %m

Table 7 - Yields of the typical crude oil at the topping unit

light gasoline 1A 1B 2A 2B 3A 3B 4A 4B 5A 5B 0.057 0.057 0.040 0.040 0.038 0.038 0.020 0.020 0.243 0.243 gas oil atmospheric residue 0.392 0.392 0.449 0.449 0.538 0.538 0.345 0.345 0.000 0.000 heavy naphta 0.174 0.136 0.159 0.123 0.118 0.092 0.099 0.080 0.389 0.342 kerosene refinery gas propane butane Loss

0.268 0.268 0.261 0.261 0.227 0.227 0.430 0.430 0.156 0.156

0.085 0.123 0.076 0.112 0.059 0.086 0.091 0.111 0.141 0.188

0.004 0.004 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000

0.004 0.004 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.004 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.003

0.009 0.009 0.004 0.004 0.008 0.008 0.005 0.005 0.068 0.068

0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.000 0.000

4.6 Crude oil prices and exchanges prices of oil products The selling price of crude oil is a Custom-Insurance-Fret (CIF) price which is deduced from the Free On Board (FOB) price in two steps. First, we add a freight cost to the Free On Board (FOB) price. Second, we multiply this price by an insurance rate. Thus, the CIF price is expressed as follow: CIF price = (FOB price + Freight cost) X ( 1 + insurance rate). The freight cost is calculated according to a reference scale called Worldscale. The Worldscale is a twice yearly publication which indicates, for all possible oil ports, a theoretical freight cost (in US dollar per tonne), which relates to the normal costs a

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"theoretically" perfect vessel for the purpose. For the OURSE model, we have choosen the most representative destination port for the nine main regions in the world that we considere. The freight rates are negociated for each voyage and they are expressed in terms of Worldscale. By definition, the base level of Worldscale is WS100. The freight rates are depending on both the quality of the product and the size of the tanker. They are reported in several publications such as the AFRA rates (Average Freight Rate Assessement). Two qualities of commodity are considered: "dirty" for crude oil and heavy fuel oil and "clean" for the other products (gasoline gas oil, etc.). Moreover, four main types of vessel are used for transporting categories of tankers should be used : the ULCC - Ultra Large Crude Carrier (325.000 - 600.000 dead-weight tonnage dwt), the VLCC - Very Large Crude Carrier (greater than 160.000 dwt) which is used for trips between the Persian Gulf and West or South East Asia, the Suezmax (between 100.000 and 160.000 dwt) which is capable of transiting the Suez canal fully loaded and the Aframax (between 80.000 and 100.000 dwt) which is used for regional traffic. For our purpose, the most relevant carrier type has been considered for each connexion. Finally, the freight costs are obtained by mutiplying the Wordlscale reference costs by the freight rates. The estimated freight costs of crude oil for year 2000 are given in Annex 4. The freight costs of "cleaned" products are assumed 20% higher than the "dirty" freight costs.

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5. Calibration of the model - year 2000

5.1 Software and algorithms for optimization The first model OURSE is developed on the Gams software associated with the CPLEX optimization code. According to the size of the model (around 14.000 constraints and 66.000 variables), both an interior point method (primal-dual barrier method with predictor-corrector) and a simplex method are performed. A typical run requires around 60 iterations for the interior point method and then it needs around 30.000 iterations for the simplex method. This large number of iterations for the simplex method could be explained by the large number of neighbouring solutions. Thus, a lot of processing technics have been introduced in the model in order to answer to the implementation of increasingly stringent specifications of oil products This has been done to avoid unfeasibilities of the optimization model. Also, the simplex algorithm examins a lot of neighbouring solutions when the specification could be reached by several processes.

5.2 Summary output The output of the LP model gives the activities, slacks and dual values for the 14.000 equations and the 66.000 variables of the model. Also, the most important results are summarized in six Tables (cf. Annex 5 for an example): - Marginal costs of the oil products - Production of the refineries - Processing unit's run and investments - Oil product balances: production, imports, consumption, export - Crude oil supply - Oil product's exchanges

5.3 Assumptions for the calibration run on year 2000 The calibration run for year 2000 has been done according to : - the refining capacities which are reported in Annex 3 - the crude oil prices (cf. Table 8) - the oil product demand (cf. Table 9) The oil product demand includes the final consumption of oil products and the demand for electricity generation. It excludes the refineries self-consumption which is deduced from the model optimization. The original figures come from the IEA statistical yearbook. Consequently, the nomenclature does not directly reflect the products definition that we give in paragraph 4.3 and in Annex 2 : - The "other kerosene" consumption is assimilated to the heating oil demand as it is a medium distillate used for cooking,
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- The "gasoil/diesel" final demand of the IEA statistics is splitted between heating oil and diesel oil according to the sector of consumption. Diesel oil is the consumption of the road transport sector. Heating oil is the difference between the total consumption and the diesel oil demand.

Table 8 - Crude oil prices (year 2000)

Price Crude oil Brent Ar. Light Ar. Heavy Forcados Condens.
Unit : US$

Price per ton 213.8 200.4 186.7 204.5 232.2

conv. fact. 7.50 7.32 7.10 7.19 8.10

per baril 28.5 27.4 26.3 28.4 28.7

Table 9 - Oil product demand (year 2000)

Z1 North & Central America LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet fuel Other kerosene Heating oil Diesel Residual Fuel oil Lubricants Bitume Coke Marine bunkers Total 80.2 18.1 417.5 89.5 3.6 97.3 122.9 63.8 10.4 36.6 33.2 40.3 1013.4 Z2 South America 16.0 9.0 41.6 8.9 2.8 17.2 46.1 36.0 6.1 6.2 4.6 6.3 200.8 Z3 North Europe 19.0 30.5 98.5 36.8 5.4 89.0 101.8 26.3 16.4 13.0 5.4 22.8 464.8 Z4 South Europe 10.6 12.2 38.0 11.5 0.0 27.9 49.2 43.949 3.3 6.7 7.0 13.7 224.0 7.6 0.5 34.7 9.8 0.5 24.5 11.8 66.1 8.6 8.6 1.3 0.1 174.2 5.9 1.0 24.1 5.5 0.0 13.9 18.5 17.5 9.0 8.0 0.2 7.3 110.8 Z5 CIS Z6 Africa Z7 Middle East 14.8 5.5 35.2 6.5 10.5 38.0 20.9 41.4 3.6 3.6 0.3 8.4 188.8 12.5 21.4 35.3 8.0 3.0 41.2 27.4 27.2 6.4 5.0 4.6 5.6 197.6 Z8 China Z9 Other Asia & Oceania 41.7 71.7 107.5 31.7 57.3 78.2 120.0 108.5 15.0 15.0 5.7 29.9 682.2 Total

208.3 169.9 832.5 208.1 83.1 427.1 518.6 430.7 78.8 102.7 62.3 134.4 3256.6

Unit : million of tons

5.4 Summary and analysis of the simulation for year 2000 The optimal solution has been obtained after 55 iterations of the interior point method and 28.425 iterations of the simplex method. The value of the objective function is 690.425.5 millions of US$ which represents the gross earning of this industry. In order to assess the results, we analyze both the primal results as well as the dual results.

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Consequently to validate the primal results, we mainly check the variable's level for : the production level (refinery throughputs) the crude oil supply per refining region the oil product's exchanges the oil product balances

For the dual solution of the LP, we focus on the dual values and the reduced cost of : the demand's equations (marginal cost of the products) the equations of product's specification

The first run point out some unrealistic results which leads to introduce some calibration equations that we describe below.

5.4.1 Analysis of the primal results Several authorities such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), consultant group and professional organization provide figures of the oil activity. For our purpose (agregated worldwide model of the refining activity), we have mostly compared the model results with the British Petroleum (BP) statistical review historical data and the IEA oil balances : http://www.iea.org http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview

5.4.1.1 Refineries throughput The global production of the refineries which is equal to 3350 millions of tons is 1.5% lower than the observed refinery throughput of year 2000 as some minor products such as white spirit have been excluded from the scope of the model. The observed and the simulated productions per regional area (cf. Table 10) are close: the average percentage error is 5.1%. Nevertheless, the assumption of aggregation of the model leads to allow some internal exchanges of intermediate products which do not appear in the real industrial processes. Consequently, the three largest regions - North and central America, Europe and Other Asia over-optimize their refining processes and obtain a production level which is higher than the observed value.

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Table 10 - Refinery throughputs - year 2000

Observation Z1 Z2 Z3+Z4 Z5 Z6 Z7 Z8 Z9 Total
Unit: million of tons, Source: BP stats

Simulation 950 205 689 220 117 266 197 705 3350

% diff 2.9% -14.5% 0.5% -4.6% -3.5% -11.3% -6.4% 2.2%

North & Central South Europe CIS Africa Middle China Other Asia &

America America

924 240 686 231 121 300 211

Oceania

690 3403

5.4.1.2 crude oil supply, oil products balances and calibration equations The crude oil production and the crude oil deliveries to the nine main refining areas are compared to the actual crude oil production and trade flows (cf figure 5). However, this crude oil supply cannot be directly compared to the "oil production" statistics from IEA or BP-Stats which includes also shale oil, oil sands and NGLs. Moreover, this supply is always lower than the actual figure as the refining model excludes the production of bitumes and small products such as white spirits, etc. Thus, the crude oil supply of the refining model represents the main crude oil flows from the Middle East, the Former Soviet Union and Africa. The oil product balances have been analyzed for each regional area (cf annex 5) and they have been compared to the IEA oil balances. During the first run, some differences appear between the simulated and the actual values of the oil balances : generally, an over-production in a given area is associated to an excess of exports to an other region which has some shortage for the same product. In such case, we analyze the products trade and we limit the product's flow as it is explained below. The analysis of the world product balance optimised sets off the main product exchanges observed in 2000. Thus, in results, the North America structural deficit in gasoline is correctly balanced by exports from other areas (except Asia), while European areas's one in diesel oil (and heavy fuel oils for South) is mainly compensated by the area FSU, Africa only insuring the make-up (in particular for heavy fuel oil with a very low sulphur content). In this exchange scheme, Middle-East is an area exporting all products to the whole of the other areas, among which Asia has effectively light deficits in naphtha, distillates and heavy fuel oils.

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Figure 5 Petroleum Worldwide -2000

Source : IFP

The oil flows between the nine areas and the oil product's exchanges have been calibrated after adding several calibration equations in the LP model in order to limit the flows of both crude oil and refined products between the nine main areas. An high level of aggregation for the world refining industry leads to over-optimize the refineries processes because we allow som flows of intermediate products and some product's blending which could not appears in the real processes. However,there are a lot of switches between neighbouring solutions in a very desagregated model. This comes from the small difference between the marginal costs of the same product over several regional areas which could exchange it. If we note 1 and 2 the marginal costs of a given product in areas Z1 and Z2, the switch of solution when there is only one transportation variable only depends on the transportation cost (CT) :

1 = 2 + CT
Consequently, if the marginal cost are around 200-300 US$ per ton and the transportation is close to 5-10 US$, then a product's exchange could appear or not appear according to the global process of each refinery.

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In a LP model, the best way to represent the exchanges with a growing cost is to split it in several steps which stand for a intervalle of quantities as it is represented in figure 6. This leads to introduce three exchanges variables Q1,Q2 and Q3 associated with a price per unit p1 for the intervalle [0, Qmax1[, p2 for [Qmax1, Qmax2[ and p3 for the highest values greater than or equal to Qmax2. As the objective function is a cost minimisation the model and the price is growing, the optimization process leads to select Q1 up to Qmax1, then Q2 up to Qmax2-Qmax1 and finally Q3.

Figure 6 Growing transportation cost of oil products

However, the weakness of the data availability for the transportation costs allows to only consider one level of exchanges and to bound it in order to avoid some transfer's overflows. This explains the calibration's equations which have been introduced in the model.

5.4.2 Analysis of the dual results For the analysis of the marginal costs, we examine the dual values associated to the most representative products of each "family" of oil derivatives: a light product - gasoline-, two medium distillates - gasoil and jet fuel - and a heavy product - low sulphur heavy fuel oil. These marginal costs are compared to the spot FOB prices on the three main oil markets in the World - USA, North-West Europe and Singapore (cf. Table 11). The average percentage error is 15%. The difference between the gasoline and the LS fuel oil marginal costs is lowest than the difference between the prices of the two commodities: this is a typical effect of the over-optimization due to the aggregation of the model. As we explain before the model allows some internal exchanges which do not appear in the real processes. Consequently, the production of the most valuable products is easiest than in the real life and their marginal costs are lowest. On the contrary, the residual fuel oil has some highest marginal costs.

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Table 11 - Marginal costs and FOB prices of oil products year 2000
FOB price USA Gasoline Gasoil Jet fuel LS fuel oil 300.2 271.6 300.2 162.4 NW -Europe 286.2 255.7 290.7 153.6 Singapore 271.5 242.0 270.0 167.0 Z1 251.9 227.7 238.5 184.4 Marginal cost Z3 232.5 242.8 243.2 202.7 Z9 235.3 237.8 237.7 203.6

Unit: US$/ton Source: IEA Statistical yearbook

Moreover, we have checked the marginal costs associated to the products specifications. An high value point out the difficulty to reach the target value of a given specification. In such case, the processes which are used to provide the blended compounds of a final product have been analyzed. Generally, a solution came from an increasing input feed (through an increasing import) of the bottle neck unit.

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6. Example of results for 2020

6.1 General assumptions Based on scenarii about the world oil product demand and specifications, the crude oil slate and prices and different environmental policies, some long-term simulations are performed to assess the world oil product prices and balance as the potential investments required in the world oil refining industry. For this purpose, oil product demand and specification scenarii have been built as regards various energetic prospective studies from organisms as Department of Energy (DEO, US), International Energy Agency (IEA), European Union and Petroleum Economics Limited (PEL) and similar about the following trends up to 2020: based on a world economic growth of 3%/year, energetic demand could increase by 1.8%/year leading to a level around 13 Gtep in 2020. With a part around 38%, the oil demand would reach 100 Mb/j at this date (1.7%/year), the transportation sector representing a share increased to 60% (with 80% in USA, 70% in Europe and 50% in China, for example) and medium distillates, a share of 30% (due to the increasing demand of diesel oil in European and the use extended of heating oil in developing countries), while LPG (10%) and gasoline (25%) would be stable and heavy fuel oils declining from 13 to 8%. Note that this oil demand split between the different product grades would be characterized by some differences over geographical areas: in particular, Latin America, USA and Europe would show the highest world share for respectively LPG (14%), gasoline (near 50%) and medium distillates (more than 40%).

Table 12: Oil product demand (year 2020 - general nomenclature) Z1 Z2 Z3 Z4 Z5 Z6 Z7 Z8 Z9 total
91.4 22.4 24.0 13.4 12.6 9.8 25.8 28.8 96.2 324.4 LPG 24.1 14.4 40.4 16.2 1.0 2.6 9.3 44.1 147.7 299.8 Naphtha 549.7 56.9 59.7 23.0 53.0 40.0 69.2 79.3 241.3 1,172.1 Gasoline 122.9 18.1 61.1 16.6 18.7 8.3 21.3 19.1 154.0 440.1 Jet fuel 125.6 26.6 111.9 35.2 38.8 26.3 66.3 88.5 168.1 687.3 Heating oil 148.7 71.2 118.0 56.9 18.6 35.1 26.4 49.0 228.0 751.9 Diesel oil 101.5 44.8 61.0 48.2 58.3 43.5 74.8 45.6 186.0 663.7 Res. F.O. * 33.2 4.6 5.4 7.0 1.3 0.2 0.4 4.6 5.7 62.4 Coke 1,197.1 259.0 481.5 216.5 202.3 165.8 293.5 359.0 1,227.0 4,401.7 Total
Unit : million of tons * "Res. F.O." is residual fuel oils and includes heavy fuel oils, lubricants, bitumen and marine bunkers.

Concerning specifications, we considered a progressive evolution from 2000, leading changes first in 2010 (italic) or only in 2020 (bold), as figured in Table 9 for aromatic, benzene and sulphur contents of gasoline and in Table 10 for cetane and sulphur content of diesel oil. For heavy fuel oils, the specification stringency has been modelled through an increasing share of the low sulphur one in the total heavy fuel oil demand for each aggregated area.

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Table 13: Gasoline specifications (year 2020)

product RG RQ ES EQ PR quality / unit Sulfur max ppm 30 30 150 50 10 Aromatic max %vol. 30 30 42 42 35 Benzene max %vol. 1 1 3 1 1

Table 14: Diesel oil specifications (year 2020)

product DO DQ DV DU quality / unit Sulfur max ppm 30 50 10 500 Cetane point 45 49 51 47

Price scenarii have been defined as function of three reference values (20, 30 and 35 $/bbl) retained from Brent in order to figure three market condition relatively contrasted. More precisely, this methodoly has been based on a set of stable long-term equilibrium relations, defined through a statistical and econometric analysis used Platt's data basis, associating the reference crude oil prices (Brent, WTI and Dubai) with the prices of the five typical crudes retained in the model (Brent, Arabian Light, Arabian Heavy, Forcados and Condensate). Table 11 presents our results for the reference value of 35$/bbl for Brent in 2020. This table also figures the crude supply considered for 2020, that includes new conventionnal resources (+7Mb/d from Saoudi Arabia and Irak) but also non conventional ones as synthetic crudes produced from extra-heavy oils (6.5 Mb/d from Canada, Venezuela and CIS). We considered these addings to the unsufficent crude supply estimated (82 Mb/j in 2020) in order to balance the oil demand of 100Mb/j (see above), that we also reduced by considering the avaibility of gas to liquid (GTL, around 2 Mb/d) and biofuels (around 1,5 Mb/d).

Table 15: Crude oil price and crude supply (year 2020 - Scenario: 35 US$/bbl Brent)
Crude LP Conversion oil code factor (bbl/t) Brent 11 7.49 Arabian Light 22 7.33 Arabian Heavy 33 7.08 N. Forcados 44 7.22 Condensate 55 8.10 Price
US $ per baril US $ per ton Mb/d

Supply
%m

35.00 32.50 31.63 34.88 35.10

262.2 238.2 223.9 251.8 284.3 total

24.4 32.7 26.0 6.8 5.6 95.5

25.5 34.2 27.2 7.1 5.9 100.0

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6.2 Results The following analysis focuses on changes from 2000 to 2020 even if some optimisations have been run for 2010. Note that this kind of world model is not dedicated to represent with all details possible the whole of the reality for the 600 refineries in the world. Moreover, simulations operated showed us that the LP model is very sensible to assumptions retained for crude prices and transportations costs: this illustrates difficulties related to the world refining industry modelling, but mainly reminds us mainly to analyse LP results gingerly. In this context, the model seems to reflect correctly in crude oil exchanges the changes assumed in crude oil avaibility in quality and geographical terms (reduction in the North Sea production in particular). Furthermore, North and South America seem to become selfsufficient in 2020 thanks to the synthetic crude development, while Middle-East and Africa could become the quasi-exclusive supplier of Asia and European areas respectively. In terms of refining capacities, the large under-use of topping's ones observed in 2000 (72% with the highest use of 90 % for China) is quite totally completed in 2020 in all areas, except for Latin America and CIS areas, under the assumption of their capacities's maintenance (cf Table 12). We also observe in 2020 an use increased of residue hydroconversion, distillate hydrocracking and hydrogen production in all areas. These results follow the saturation of gasoline (reforming and ETBE units) and catalytic cracking's schemes (with or without pretreatment), that occured from 2000 on, as the one of gas oil hydrodesulphuration (HDS) from 2010. These trends stem naturally from investments operated quite similarly by the whole of areas. In particular, if China and Asia are the sole areas to invest strongly in topping (resp. 78 and 320 Mt/y over the period 2000-2020), all areas opt in 2020 to continue the revamping of their gas oil HDS capacities initialised in 2010 in order to meet the generalised reduction of the diesel oil sulphur content. Thus near the third of gas oil low and medium pressure HDS capacities installed in 2000 (950 Mt/y) is replaced in 2020 by processing unit able to produce a ULSD at 5 ppm sulphur. Moreover some investments have to be done in China. Note that the revamping is modelled in the OURSE model through an improvement of catalyst performance as catalyst consumption and hydrogen purity related to actual HDS units. Note also that this solution is assumed to be feasible in all our aggregated refineries; but, in the reality, differents reasons can prevent refiners from producing ULSD by this way, as technical difficulties (site constraints) or too much high costs to adapt their available capacities. In this context, the OURSE model provides an over-optimised view of refinery changes up to 2020. In parallel, USA, Europe and Asia increase yet their hydrocracking capacities, oriented toward Jet fuel production for a total adding of 65 Mt/y from 2000 to 2020. Furthermore, except both America and Africa, all other areas also invest in residue catalytic cracking (+205 Mt/y over the same period), that Middle-East had anticipated from 2010 on by investing in new residue hydrotreatment capacities (+30 Mt/y), followed by China in 2020 (+14 Mt/y).

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Table 16: Capacity use and investments from 2000 (year 2020)
Topping Hydrocracking Res. C.Crack. Res. preTreat. cap. %use invest. cap. invest. cap. invest. cap. invest. 2000 2000 to 2020 2000 to 2020 2000 to 2020 2000 to 2020 1072.2 82.2 76.0 17.3 39.4 28.7 349.7 59.6 2.8 564.6 79.9 24.5 5.4 10.8 13.9 3.9 275.2 66.0 6.1 5.8 0.8 465.2 42.6 2.3 5.9 0 163.8 66.6 3.1 0.8 0 357.5 58.0 25.1 1.5 50 11.9 29.9 206.4 90.4 318.4 5.8 38.4 12.3 3.7 14.1 809.6 79.8 77.8 31.4 42.0 48.2 117.4 51.1 72.0 396.2 177.1 64.7 139.1 205.3 100.1 44.0

area Z1 Z2 Z3 Z4 Z5 Z6 Z7 Z8 Z9

total 4264.2 Unit: Mt/y

Lastly, the analysis of the oil product balance of the nine regional areas which are deduced from the model's results over the period 2000-2020 shows up the following points: - USA could see their gasoline imports to increase strongly until 120 Mt/y in 2020, that would be balanced by Latin America but also by an available excess from Europe. With the lowest gasoline marginal cost, Europe would replace other potential gasoline providers of USA as Africa and Middle East. But such a gasoline exchange from Europe to USA can ask question, if we consider that it could represent 60% of the total European production and about 25% of US gasoline demand in 2020. - Thanks to its gasoline advantage, European areas could success to balance their foreign exchanges with reduced heavy fuel oil exports and large diesel oil imports, that would continue to be provided by CIS. From a global point of view, the CIS refining area would stay thus an export-area.. - Latin America may stay in deficit of diesel oil, what could be balanced by North America. - The whole of Africa area could continue to import gasoline but also export diesel oil and heavy fuel oil with very low sulphur content. - Asia and China could support an important strengtheningof their deficit in naphtha and gasoline as in diesel oil, due to the high increase in their demand and in despite of the large investments operated. Theses trends are figured in Table 13. In this context, the asiatic area would be the preferred region toward which Middle-East would orient quasi-totally its production excess.

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7. Ourse managed by vensim

7.1 General overview The world wide aggregated refining model OURSE is an optimisation model. For this reason, OURSE has been developed on the Gams language associated with the CPLEX linear programming optimisation code (cf paragraph 5.1). However, OURSE is designed to be integrated in the world energy model POLES which is developed on Vensim. Consequently, a C++ interface has been developed to transfer input data from vensim to Gams, then to run Gams and finally into transfer output data from Gams to Vensim. All these data files are ascii files.

7.2 Running a Gams programme in Vensim For a given year, the oil product demand and the automotive fuel specifications, the crude oil price and the crude oil supply, the carbon quotas and the carbon taxes, the other feedstock prices (ethanol, hydrogene, etc.) are written in ascii files. Ourse in Gams is running (the vensim process is waiting during the gams optimization). The marginal costs of the oil products are stored in an ascii file. Vensim reads this file. Then, the oil product prices could be defined from the marginal cost and could be used in the energy demand equations, etc. The different links between oil product demandare on the Vensim "sketch" (figure 7). The Gams call is done through the variable "Ourse in Gams". In the equation which defines the "Ourse in Gams" variable, they are two possibilities to run the gams optimization file (cf paragraph 7.6) : from a scratch basis through the OURSE external function from an advanced basis through the OURSE2 external function

Example : running with an advanced basis OURSE2(Time )+0*( prices to ourse ) +0*carbontax to ourse[Z1] +0*oildem to ourse[LPG,Z1]+0*crudeoil to ourse[Z1,C1]+0*carbonquota to ourse [Z1]+0*refinput prices to ourse[KC2IN]+0*autofuel spec to ourse[ARMXRG]

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Figure 7 OURSE Vensim sketch

7.3 Input and output files The data are exchanged between the Vensim simulation model and the gams optimization model through ascii files. These files are generated (for Vensim output files) or read (for Vensim input files) through C++ subroutines (functions) which are called by the external function facility of Vensim-dll. The first letter of the C++ functions is "O" for Vensim output and "I" for Vensim input. List of functions : IMARGCOST : reading marginal costs from gams to vensim OCARBON : transfering carbon quotas from vensim to gams ODEMAND : transfering demand from vensim to gams OPRICE : transfering price from vensim to gams ORESPRI : transfering other resource prices from vensim to gams OSPEC : transfering automotive fuel specifications from vensim to gams OSUPPLY : transfering crude oil supply from vensim to gams OTAX : transfering taxes from vensim to gams OTIME : transfering time from vensim to gams The functions are described in annex 6.

35

7.4 C programme or subroutine to drive gams A "spawn" function is used to execute the optimization with GAMS in Vensim. They are two possibilities : - running the LP from a scratch basis : OURSE - running the LP from an advanced basis : OURSE2 The source codes are displayed below. This function has been tested both on windows-NT and windows-XP. The most important instruction is _spawnlp which allows to run Gams in a Vensim process. The lo=2 keyword generates a log file which contains the traditional gams screen display. In the second case (OURSE2), Gams restarts from an advanced basis (results of the previous year). According to the odd or even year, the Gams programme restarts from the "grandourse" basis (even year) or the "grandourse2" basis (odd year). An original basis has been saved for the calibration year (year 2000). While using the Cplex solver, Gams requires the files G01 to GO6 and GO9. Otehrwise the files G01 to G08 are used with OSL.

Table 17 OURSE source file : running the LP from a scratch basis double OURSE(double time) { FILE *pFile, *pFile2 ; pFile = fopen("ourse_time.txt","w"); fprintf (pFile, "set stime(t) / %5.0f /;\n",time) ; fclose (pFile); pFile2 = fopen("ourse_ctime.txt","w"); fprintf (pFile2, "ctime= %5.0f ;\n",time) ; fclose (pFile2); _spawnlp( _P_WAIT, "gams.exe", "gams.exe", "grandourse_v9.gms", "lo=2", NULL ); return(time) ; }

Table 18 OURSE2 source file : running the LP from an advanced basis double OURSE2(double time) { double z; FILE *pFile, *pFile2 ; pFile = fopen("ourse_time.txt","w"); fprintf (pFile, "set stime(t) / %5.0f /;\n",time) ;
36

fclose (pFile); pFile2 = fopen("ourse_ctime.txt","w"); fprintf (pFile2, "ctime= %5.0f ;\n",time) ; fclose (pFile2); z = (time/2) - floor(time/2); /* The first advanced basis (grandourse) is for 2000*/ if( z == 0) _spawnlp( _P_WAIT, "gams.exe", "gams.exe","grandourse_v9c.gms","r=grandourse2","s=grandourse","lo=2", NULL ); else _spawnlp( _P_WAIT, "gams.exe", "gams.exe","grandourse_v9c.gms","r=grandourse","s=grandourse2","lo=2", NULL ); return(time) ; }

7.5 Refining model optimization The refining model is a large scale model with the following characteristics :
SINGLE EQUATIONS : SINGLE VARIABLES : NON ZERO ELEMENTS : 14202 66514 473293

We use the Cplex optimizer (Cplex 9.0.2) on personal computer (Windows XP, Pentium 4). An important point is the total available RAM to avoid swap between the optimization process and the hard disk. The optimization sofware needs 46 Mb to solve the OURSE model. The model optimization from a scratch basis combines both an interior point method and a simplex method in order to increase to the running time performance of the optimization process. However, when we run the model in the Vensim environment from year to year, the model run faster when we just use he simplex method from an adavanced basis in order to reduce the number of iterations. Due to the relative number of equations and variables, the dual method of simplex does not appear to run faster than the primal method (see below). In the three following examples, we run the model from a scratch basis. Note that the number of iterations could be different with the simplex method by using the Cplex options "craind" to crash an initial basis. When we carry out a primal method of simplex, the solution process is : objective function at the optimum : 596745.893 number of total iterations : 201123 elapsed CPU time : 115 s number of iteration to remove the infeasibilities : 41170

37

When we carry out a dual method of simplex, the solution process is : objective function at the optimum : 596745.893 number of total iterations : 90075 elapsed CPU time : 357 s

When we combine an interior point method and a simplex method, the solution process is : objective function at the optimum : 596745.893 number of interior point iterations : 63 elapsed time for barrier : 22.26 s elapsed CPU time : 24.31 s

7.6 Gams refining model

7.6.1 Basic refining model The refining model which is presented in annex 7 is based on a matrix of coefficients denoted : ORA(I,J) with, I indices of the equations, J indices of the variables. This matrix ORA stands for the technical equations presented in chapter 2 and defines the feasible domain of the LP problem. As the OURSE model is a multi-plant model, the ORA matrix is duplicated in ORAZ(I,J,ZONE) with, ZONE . indices of the refining areas. Denoting, ORRHS : right hand side of the constraints, OROBJ : objective function, YZ: variables, and ZON1 the subset of the regional areas ZONE, thus the basic multi-area refining model is :

38

min

zon1

OROBJZ ( J , ZON1) YZ ( J , ZON1)

j

ORAZ ( I , J , ZON1) ORRHS ( I , ZON1) (for the " lower than" constraints) ORAZ ( I , J , ZON1) ORRHS ( I , ZON1) (for the " greater than" constraints) ORAZ ( I , J , ZON1) = ORRHS ( I , ZON1) (for the " equality" constraints)

In the gams model (cf annex 7), the last three equations are respectively named : CONTRLG, CONTRG and CONTRE. If the slack lower bound (ORSLALB) is equal to minus infinity, this indicates that the constraint is a greater than constraint. If the slack upper bound (ORSLAUB) is equal to plus infinity, this indicates that the constraint is a lower than constraint. If the constraint is neither greater or lower than, thus this is an equality.

7.6.2 Crude oil supply and oil product flows However, this model is a juxtaposition of several (ZON1) refining model without crude oil supply and without oil product exchanges. For this purpose, we add the following equations :

- crude oil supply of the refineries :

ZONE 0

ALLOW ( ICRUD, ZONEO, ZON1) * FLOW ( ICRUD, ZONEO, ZON1) YZ ( ICRUD, ZON1) = 0

ZON 1

ALLOW ( ICRUD, ZONEO, ZON1) * FLOW ( ICRUD, ZONEO, ZON1) SHARE1(ZONEO, ZON1)

with, ALLOW : parameter equal to 1 if the crude oil trade flow is allowed, 0 otherwise FLOW : variable of the model, crude oil flow (ICRUD) from the field (ZONEO) to the refinery (ZON1) SHARE1 : crude oil potential production YZ(ICRUD,ZON1) : variable of the model, crude oil supply (ICRUD) of the refinery (ZON1) ICRUD : label of the crude oil 'quality' =Brent, Arabian Light, Arabian Heavy, Forcados, condensate The first equation (CRUDDEM in the gams file annex 7) is the crude oil demand equation for each refining area. The second equation (SUPPLY in the gams file annex 7) is the supply equation from the oil fields. The effect of an embargo could be simulated by switching a parameter ALLOW from 1 to 0 for a given combination (ZONE0, ZON1).
39

Some limits on the international trade of crude oil could be introduced in order to avoid some unrealistic results through the BOUNDCRUD equations (cf annex 8) :

ICRUD

FLOW ( ICRUD, ZONEO, ZON1) MAXCRUD(ZONEO, ZON1)

with, MAXCRUD : parameter, uuper limit of the total flow of crude oil from ZONEO to ZON1.

- oil product exchanges

ZON 1

INTERFLOW (ORIPRO1, ZON1O, ZON1) FLOWPROD(ORIPRO1, ZON1O, ZON1) INTERFLOW (ORIPRO1, ZON1O, ZON1) FLOWPROD(ORIPRO1, ZON1O, ZON1)

YZ (OREXPRO1, ZON1O) = 0
ZON 1O

YZ (ORIMPRO1, ZON1O) = 0 with, INTERFLOW : parameter equal to 1 if the trade flow is allowed, 0 otherwise FLOWPROD : variable of the model, oil product flow from the refinery (ZON1O) to the refinery (ZON1) The first equation (named EXPORT in the Gams file annex 7) links the exports of the refinery ZON1O YZ(OREXPRO1, ZON1O) to the international trade flows. The second one (named IMPORT in the Gams file annex 7) links the imports of the region ZON1 to the international trade flows.

7.6.4 CO2 emission Two levels of CO2 emission are allowed : the first one (QPOLUCA1) is free but limited by a carbon quota, the second is not restricted (QPOLUCA2) but is taxed (in the objective function). As the objective function is a cost minimization, the optimization process first selects the first level (QPOLUCA) unitil its bound and then the second level (QPOLUCA2). The equation CARBEMIS (cf annex 7) represents these two levels :

YZ (' QPOLUCA' , ZON1) YZ (' QPOLUCA1' , ZON1) + YZ (' QPOLUCA2' , ZON1)

The first level of emission is limited through the BOUNDUP equations.

40

7.6.5 Limitation of investments

The investments could be limited according to the table INVEST(INVUNIT,ZONE). This is a binary table with 1 when investments area allowed and 0 otherwise. Generally, all the figures have to be set to 1. The value 5000 is introduced because all the figures are in million of tons and the total demand for oil products should not exceed 5000 of tons until mid century.
YZ ( INVUNIT , ZON1) 5000 INVEST ( INVUNIT , ZON1) with, INVEST ( INVUNIT , ZON1) = 1 if investements are allowed INVEST ( INVUNIT , ZON1) = 0 otherwise

7.6.6 Objective function

The objective function includes : - the processing costs and the CO2 taxes which are represented in the OROBJ parameters - the crude oil CIF prices of the refineries which require the FOB price (FOBPRICE), the freight costs (FREIGHT) and the insurance costs (0.25 % of the previous costs). - the transportation costs of the oil products (FREIGHTP) Thus, it is written :

J , ZON 1

OROBJZ ( J , ZON1) YZ ( J , ZON1) + ( FOBPRICE ( ICRUD, ZONEO, ZON1) + FREIGHT ( ICRUD, ZONEO, ZON1)) 1.0025 FREIGHTP(ZON1O, ZON1) FLOWPROD(ORIPRO1, ZON1O, ZON1)

ICRUD , ZONEO , ZON 1

FLOW ( ICRUD, ZONEO, ZON1) +

ORIPRO , ZON 1O , ZON 1

All the parameters of the objective function are in US dollar (constant currency, year 2000).

41

Conclusion
The OURSE model is a worldwide aggregated refining model which is designed to simulate the oil product supply for the POLES model. The model is based on a linear programming (LP) model. Such model is frequently used in the refining industry, both for refinery management and for investment analysis. Furthermore, marginal cost pricing is relevant for the oil products. Because the model designed to represent the world-wide refining industry must have a limited number of equations, a representative refinery has been defined for nine main regions in the world - North and central America, Latin America, North and South Europe, CIS, Africa, Middle Esat, China, Other Asia and Oceania. Moreover, the crude oil supply has been aggregated (the size of the model is directly linked to the number of crude oil which are introduced in the model) and five main crude oil qualities are considered in the model. Finally, as the model has to represent the oil product exchanges between the main regions in the world, a multi-plant approach is considered. The first version of the model is developed on the Gams software. According to the size of the model (around 14.000 constraints and 66.000 variables), both an interior point method (primal-dual barrier method with predictor-corrector) and a simplex method are performed. The results of the calibration run on year 2000 have been compared to the observed figures: this points out a 5% percentage error for the refining throughput, and a 15% percentage error for the marginal costs of the products.

42

References
Babusiaux D., 2003, Allocation of the CO2 and Pollutant Emissions of a Refinery to Petroleum Finished Products., Oil & Gas Science Technology, vol. 58 n 3 Babusiaux D., Lantz F., Saint-Antonin V., 1995, The Oil Module in the PRIMES Model, PRIMES Project, European Commission DG-XII 1995, Ref. EUR 16713EN. Babusiaux D., Favennec J.P., Lantz F, Raimbault C, Saint-Antonin V., 1998, Rapport du groupe raffinage - atelier A2, Rapport pour le Commissariat Gnral du Plan Baudouin C., 1998, Prise en compte de non-linarits dans la modlisation conomique du raffinage. Cas de lunit dhydrodsulfuration . Thse cole des Mines de ParisENSPM Baudouin C., Gruson J.F., 2001, Implications to CO2 refinery emissions of ultra low sulphur fuels, Study Report for European Automobile Manufacturers Association. Bond J., Mayorga-Alba E., Offant P., 1977, Rduction des approvisionnements ptroliers multiples dans les programmes linaires de raffinage, Revue de l'Institut Franais du Ptrole, vol. 32, n 6, pp. 959-971 Ciriani T.A., Gliozzi S., Johnson E.L. and Tadei.R., 1999, Operation research in industry, MacMillan Press Ltd, De Souza-Dias D., 1985, Substitutions nergtiques et quilibre du raffinage brsilien l'horizon 1990, Thse de doctorat Universit de Bourgogne-ENSPM EIA, 1994, World oil refining logistics demand model, reference manual, Energy Information Administration, 290 p. European Commission, 2000, Economic foundations for Energy policy - The shared analysis project, European Commission, DG XVII, ISBN 92-828-6541-X Gruson J.F., 1995, Refinery boom in Southern Asia, Revue de l'Energie Gruson J.F., 1996, World refining outlook: constraints and opportunities for the future, Japan Petroleum Institute refining Conference, proceedings oct. 1996 Hillier F., Lieberman G, 2005, Introduction to operations research, Mc Graw Hill, 8th ed., 1034 p. Khebri S., 1993, Modlisation et optimisation des capacits et des structures du raffinage europen aux horizons 1995, 2000 et 2010, Thse de doctorat Universit de BourgogneENSPM Offant. P., 1977, Contribution de la programmation linaire dynamique l'analyse de la limitation des consommations d'nergie en France, Thse Universit de Dijon- ENSPM Saint-Antonin V., 1998, Modlisation de l'offre de produits ptroliers en Europe, Thse de l'Universit de Bourgogne-ENSPM Saint-Antonin V., Gruson J.F., 2002, Etude de la modlisation des missions de CO2 du raffinage, Rapport technique pour le Fonds de Soutien aux Hydrocarbures (FSH) Souza A., 1986 , Modlisation et planification des investissements du secteur nergtique mexicain (production des gisements d'hydrocarbures et transformation de l'nergie), Thse de doctorat ENSPM

43

Annex 1- Refining units of the OURSE model and refining capacities in 2000
DI VD D3 D5 HT HW RF RR DR PE MK FC CC HR RC CR HC HM HN HK DP IS IR AK DL TA BX EE VB CK HD HX HA HJ HH HI HL PS HU OX CG CY IG CX CL ATMOSPHERIC DISTILLATION VACUUM DISTILLATION UNIT DESASPHALTING UNIT C3 DESASPHALTING UNIT C5 DAO HDT HYDROCONVERSION DES RESIDUS CATALYTIC REFORMER REGENERATIVE REFORMER REFORMATE SPLITTER FCC FEED HDT (VACUUM GO) MILD HCK CATALYTIC CRACKING CATALYTIC CRACKING RCC FEED HDT (LONG RUN RESIDUE) HDT LONG RUN RESID CATALYTIC CRACKING LONG RUN RESID CATALYTIC CRACKING HYDROCRACKING FULL HYDROCRACKING JET HYDROCRACKING NAPHTA HYDROCRACKING 78 CONV DEISOPENTANISEUR ISOMERIZATION ONCE THROUGH ISOMERIZATION WITH RECY ALKYLATION HF DIMERSOL TAME UNIT ON LG FROM FCC & RCC MTBE UNIT ETBE TOTAL UNIT VISBREAKING (VACUUM RESIDUE) COKING delayed HDS 90 20bar HDS 97-98 30bar REVAMP HX 50bar DEEP HYDRODESULFURIZATION 75 bar SELECTIVE HDT OF HEAVY CRACKED NAPHTHA -20 ppm SELECTIVE HDT OF HEAVY CRACKED NAPHTHA -10 ppm REF FEED HDT PSA UNIT STEAM REFORMER PARTIAL OX (VACUUM RESIDUE and ASPHALTS) NG COGENERATION NGCC IGCC CLAUS SANS TGT MDEA+CLAUS+hydrosulfreen (SRI)

44

Table A1-1 Refining capacities - year 2000

North & South Central America America DI 1072.2 349.7 VD 523.2 156.9 D3 20.1 0.0 D5 0.0 0.0 HT 0.0 0.0 HW 19.8 4.2 RF 81.8 4.8 RR 53.7 14.8 DR 0.0 0.0 PE 110.8 14.1 MK 6.2 3.5 FC 99.7 14.5 CC 208.1 53.8 HR 28.7 0.0 RC 20.1 0.0 CR 19.3 0.0 HC 0.0 0.0 HM 76.0 0.0 HN 0.0 0.0 HK 0.0 2.8 DP 2.4 0.6 IS 21.1 1.1 IR 0.0 0.0 AK 57.4 4.7 DL 6.7 0.8 TA 0.9 2.3 BX 5.8 0.7 EE 0.0 0.0 VB 20.9 28.1 CK 158.5 29.0 HD 39.3 55.3 HX 218.7 0.0 HA 0.0 0.0 HJ 0.0 0.0 HH 13.6 0.0 HI 0.0 0.0 HL 223.8 29.8 PS 1.8 0.1 HU 10.8 1.5 OX 0.0 0.0 CG 0.0 0.0 CY 0.0 0.0 IG 0.0 0.0 CX 25.6 1.2 CL 0.8 0.0 Unit: Mt/year North South CIS Africa Middle East 357.5 121.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.1 21.1 14.8 0.0 2.0 2.6 3.5 17.0 11.9 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.1 0.0 3.5 0.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.0 31.0 5.1 20.1 33.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.9 0.4 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.0 China Other Asia & Oceania 1016.0 223.2 5.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 41.1 67.2 0.0 28.1 8.9 30.1 48.0 54.8 38.5 48.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.1 0.2 3.9 0.0 6.5 0.9 0.3 1.6 0.0 36.4 37.8 55.6 192.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 111.8 1.7 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.1 0.5 Total

Europe Europe 564.6 275.2 238.4 97.8 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 1.5 45.1 17.6 34.2 13.0 0.0 0.0 26.8 11.3 11.1 11.7 30.6 17.9 51.4 20.9 3.9 0.8 2.8 0.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.5 6.1 0.0 0.0 14.7 6.0 0.0 0.5 8.3 3.1 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 61.0 47.3 15.8 6.7 16.5 6.1 141.9 74.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 123.2 41.0 1.5 0.2 4.6 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 1.7 0.3 0.0

465.2 169.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.8 8.7 0.0 14.3 1.5 13.2 20.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 31.9 16.0 88.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 56.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0

163.8 30.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 17.2 2.3 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.0 1.1 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 2.3 2.5 17.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1

206.4 27.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.6 21.4 3.7 2.6 35.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 8.1 15.7 0.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0

4470.4 1589.2 27.6 0.0 0.0 54.9 279.4 208.8 1.4 207.4 46.6 210.0 445.3 103.7 64.0 113.3 0.0 76.0 0.0 106.9 3.2 52.4 0.5 84.7 11.6 3.8 12.1 0.1 271.1 286.9 283.8 685.9 0.0 0.0 20.2 0.0 655.9 5.7 30.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.7 1.7

45

Annex 2 - Nomenclature of the oil products

A2.1 General nomenclature of the oil products (demand side)
LPG NPH GSL JET KRS HTO GDO RFO LUB BTM CKP MAB LPG Naphta Gasoline Jet fuel Other kerosene Heating oil Diesel oil Residual Fuel oil Lubricants Bitume Petroleum Coke Marine bunkers

A2.2 Nomenclature of the oil products in the refining model

PT BU NA RG RQ ES EQ PR JF DO DQ DV DU HO HQ LF HF MF BT ST SQ LU FB KC FS PROPANE TOTAL BUTANE TOTAL NAPHTHA REGULAR 1 REGULAR 2 PREMIUM 1 PREMIUM 2 PREMIUM 3 JET FUEL DIESEL OIL 1 DIESEL OIL 2 DIESEL OIL 3 DIESEL OIL 4 HEATING OIL 1 HEATING OIL 2 HEAVY FUEL OIL LS 1% sulfur HEAVY FUEL OIL HS 3.5% sulfur HEAVY FUEL OIL ULTRA LS BITUMEN MEDIUM MARINE BUNKER 1 MARINE BUNKER 2 LUBRICANTS REFINERY LIQ. FUEL PETROLEUM COKE FEEDSTOCK

46

Annex 3 - Refining model areas and regions of the world in the Poles model
Z2 Z3 Z1 North & South North Cent. America America Europe Poles-Label Areas label can usa fra gbr ita rfa aut blx dnk fin irl nld swe esp grc prt hun pol rcz rsl BLT SMC bgr rom rowe tur rceu jpn rjan rus ukr RIS mex rcam bra rsam nde rsas cor rsea chn egy noap noan meme golf ssaf 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Z4 South Europe Z5 CIS Z6 Africa Z7 Middle East Z8 China Z9 Other Asia & Oceania

Polesregion P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8 P9 P10 P11 P12 P13 P14 P15 P16 P17 P18 P19 P20 P21 P22 P23 P24 P25 P26 P27 P28 P29 P30 P31 P32 P33 P34 P35 P36 P37 P38 P39 P40 P41 P42 P43 P44 P45 P46 P47

47

Annex 4 - Crude oil freight costs

Z2 Z3 Z4 Z1 North & C. South North South America America Europe Europe Brent Z1 Z2 Z3 Z4 Z5 Z6 Z7 Z8 Z9 Arabian Z1 Light Z2 Z3 Z4 Z5 Z6 Z7 Z8 Z9 Arabian Z1 Heavy Z2 Z3 Z4 Z5 Z6 Z7 Z8 Z9 Forcados Z1 Z2 Z3 Z4 Z5 Z6 Z7 Z8 Z9 Condensa Z1 -te Z2 Z3 Z4 Z5 Z6 Z7 Z8 Z9 Unit: US dollar per ton 0.0 5.6 7.3 0.0 0.0 6.5 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 7.3 0.0 0.0 6.5 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 7.3 0.0 0.0 6.5 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 7.3 0.0 0.0 6.5 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 7.3 0.0 0.0 6.5 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 5.4 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 5.4 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 5.4 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 6.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 4.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 4.9 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 4.9 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 4.9 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 6.2 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 3.6 9.4 0.0 0.0 Z5 CIS Z6 Z7 Z8 Z9 Africa Middle China Other Asia East & Oceania 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.7 0.0 0.0 13.9 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.7 0.0 0.0 13.9 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.7 0.0 0.0 13.9 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.7 0.0 0.0 13.9 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.7 0.0 0.0 13.9 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.5 0.0 0.0 11.6 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.5 0.0 0.0 11.6 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.5 0.0 0.0 11.6 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.5 0.0 0.0 11.6 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.5 0.0 0.0 11.6 4.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

48

Annex 5 - Results of the calibration run - year 2000

Table A5.1 Marginal costs of oil products

Product PT BU NA RG RQ ES EQ PR JF DO DQ DV DU HO HQ LF HF BT ST FB KC FS GN C2 C3 P3 C4 N4 I4 IB NB MB ME EB EO EC H2 HY Unit: US$/ton Z1 239.8 233.3 238.5 251.9 253.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 238.5 227.7 202.2 194.1 7.9 183.6 183.6 184.4 184.4 184.4 184.4 203.3 354.9 213.4 190.4 249.4 239.8 239.8 241.7 240.9 245.5 327.3 235.9 270.9 157.0 255.6 253.8 253.8 547.5 671.0 Z2 239.8 233.3 231.8 237.3 0.0 236.9 237.7 0.0 231.8 221.0 208.9 0.0 207.1 0.0 204.1 201.0 191.1 0.0 183.2 201.6 172.3 193.6 190.4 246.4 239.8 239.8 233.3 233.3 234.5 234.5 233.3 242.8 157.0 250.0 237.3 237.3 535.8 670.3 Z3 239.8 233.3 227.0 230.8 0.0 226.2 228.2 232.5 243.2 0.0 0.0 242.8 5.4 240.0 240.0 202.7 202.7 0.0 202.7 198.2 275.8 201.9 190.4 247.8 239.8 239.8 233.3 233.3 236.7 236.7 233.3 245.5 157.0 250.0 242.2 242.2 567.8 672.9 Z4 239.8 233.3 229.9 232.9 0.0 230.9 233.6 234.9 238.9 0.0 0.0 238.2 0.0 235.4 235.4 208.1 205.6 0.0 204.8 199.9 259.1 205.0 190.4 249.8 239.8 239.8 235.3 235.3 239.4 292.8 235.3 250.2 157.0 250.0 234.9 234.9 572.6 673.1 Z5 239.8 233.3 227.5 0.0 0.0 229.8 231.6 217.6 236.1 219.8 238.3 236.3 212.1 0.0 211.8 211.2 212.0 0.0 212.0 200.2 274.6 212.0 190.4 250.2 239.8 239.8 235.6 235.6 235.9 235.9 235.6 243.2 157.0 243.0 229.8 229.8 573.4 673.2 Z6 239.8 233.3 229.9 236.2 0.0 236.9 234.2 230.9 228.6 220.9 201.1 228.3 226.0 0.0 225.7 207.5 207.5 0.0 207.5 198.2 0.0 205.2 190.4 247.8 239.8 239.8 233.3 233.3 233.3 233.3 233.3 237.2 157.0 237.3 236.9 236.9 567.8 672.9 Z7 239.8 233.3 234.1 237.1 239.0 236.4 238.5 229.6 234.1 231.8 229.4 229.8 226.4 0.0 227.8 199.2 194.1 0.0 189.6 202.6 161.3 194.4 190.4 249.6 239.8 239.8 236.5 235.9 239.5 283.9 235.9 250.1 157.0 250.0 238.5 238.5 553.0 671.5 Z8 239.8 233.3 244.1 0.0 0.0 241.5 242.6 0.0 244.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 219.3 0.0 237.3 204.1 204.1 0.0 204.1 198.2 386.6 204.1 190.4 247.8 239.8 239.8 233.3 233.3 235.0 235.0 233.3 249.8 157.0 250.0 250.0 250.0 567.8 894.5 Z9 239.8 233.3 240.1 0.0 0.0 234.3 235.3 235.6 237.7 237.8 235.4 214.0 230.1 0.0 232.6 203.6 197.8 0.0 195.8 200.4 180.4 198.2 190.4 250.2 239.8 239.8 235.6 235.6 237.2 237.2 235.6 241.3 157.0 241.3 235.3 235.3 679.2 740.3

49

Table A5.2 Production of the refineries

Z1 PT 10.4 BU 0.0 NA 16.5 RG 272.3 RQ 125.3 ES 0.0 EQ 0.0 PR 0.0 JF 93.1 DO 122.9 DQ 2.3 DV 1.0 DU 0.0 HO 77.8 HQ 19.5 LF 51.0 HF 27.6 MF 0.0 BT 0.0 ST 40.3 SQ 0.0 LU 0.0 FB 8.4 KC 43.2 FS 0.0 GN 0.0 HS 9.6 C2 18.4 C3 14.3 P3 9.6 C4 10.5 N4 7.8 I4 10.2 IB 4.0 NB 7.2 MB 6.1 ME 0.0 EB 0.0 EO 0.0 EC 0.0 H2 3.8 HY 1.8 SL 8.6 SG 0.5 Unit: million of tons Z2 5.2 0.3 10.7 16.0 0.0 37.4 4.2 0.0 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.8 0.0 17.2 3.6 34.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 2.4 3.0 2.5 2.7 1.4 1.2 2.4 1.2 2.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 2.2 0.1 Z3 9.5 2.6 30.5 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.5 42.2 0.0 0.0 73.8 0.0 89.0 8.9 19.8 24.3 0.0 0.0 22.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 6.9 5.4 4.1 3.8 2.5 4.1 1.8 3.2 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.3 1.2 0.1 Z4 3.4 0.0 7.8 1.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 38.0 11.5 0.0 0.0 47.2 0.0 25.1 2.8 20.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.5 2.1 1.3 1.6 0.9 1.5 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.0 Z5 2.0 0.0 4.9 0.0 0.0 27.8 6.9 0.0 10.3 0.0 11.8 25.0 0.0 0.0 24.5 0.0 75.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.6 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.6 0.0 Z6 1.1 0.2 1.0 0.0 0.0 22.6 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.0 0.0 4.0 18.5 0.0 13.9 6.8 24.8 0.0 0.0 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Z7 0.2 0.0 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.2 0.0 17.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 20.9 0.0 38.0 4.1 61.6 0.0 0.0 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.7 1.6 0.8 1.3 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 1.2 0.1 Z8 3.2 1.1 21.4 0.0 0.0 28.2 7.1 0.0 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.4 0.0 41.2 2.7 29.6 0.0 0.0 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.5 1.6 1.5 1.8 0.6 1.1 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 Z9 9.2 0.0 67.5 0.0 0.0 32.3 64.5 10.8 39.0 68.9 24.0 0.0 24.0 0.0 128.2 43.4 65.1 0.0 0.0 29.9 0.0 0.0 0.8 5.7 0.0 0.0 5.5 6.5 5.9 4.5 4.5 2.5 4.3 1.9 4.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.4 4.9 0.3

50

Table A5.3 Processing units

Z1 881.6 380.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.8 53.7 0.0 110.8 6.2 99.6 67.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 57.5 0.0 21.1 0.0 2.8 6.7 0.9 4.0 0.0 0.0 138.1 39.3 189.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4 0.0 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.8 Z2 208.4 99.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 14.8 0.0 14.1 0.0 11.5 46.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.7 0.0 6.7 13.1 49.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 Z3 451.2 126.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 34.2 0.0 25.1 11.1 30.6 51.4 3.9 2.7 8.0 0.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 14.7 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 0.0 5.2 15.8 16.5 38.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 Z4 181.7 55.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 13.0 0.0 9.3 11.7 16.6 20.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 6.6 6.8 6.1 22.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 Z5 198.1 24.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.5 8.7 0.0 6.2 1.5 6.7 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.2 61.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 Z6 109.0 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.8 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Z7 207.2 39.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 14.8 0.0 2.0 2.6 3.5 17.0 4.4 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 14.5 1.2 20.1 26.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 Z8 186.6 27.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.6 21.4 3.7 2.6 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 15.7 0.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 Z9 646.4 112.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.1 0.0 28.1 8.0 29.5 26.6 51.1 35.8 12.3 0.0 13.3 0.0 0.0 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.0 15.2 21.7 55.7 112.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 0.5

DI VD D3 D5 HT HW RF RR DR PE MK FC CC HR RC CR HC HK HN HM DP IS IR AK DL TA BX EE VB CK HD HX HA HJ HH HI HL PS HU OX CG CY IG CX CL

51

Table A5.4 Oil products balances

Z1 production imports consumption exports PT BU NA RG RQ ES EQ PR JF DO DQ DV DU HO HQ LF HF MF ST KC 10.4 0.0 16.5 272.3 125.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.1 122.9 2.3 1.0 0.0 77.8 19.5 51.0 27.6 0.0 40.3 43.2 29.7 40.1 1.7 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.1 40.1 18.1 292.3 125.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.1 122.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.8 19.5 51.0 23.2 0.0 40.3 43.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Z2 production imports consumption exports 5.2 0.3 10.7 16.0 0.0 37.4 4.2 0.0 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.8 0.0 17.2 3.6 34.0 0.0 6.3 4.6 2.8 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 8.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 37.4 4.2 0.0 11.7 0.0 2.3 0.0 43.8 0.0 17.2 3.6 38.5 0.0 6.3 4.6 0.0 0.0 1.7 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Z3 production imports consumption exports PT BU NA RG RQ ES EQ PR JF DO DQ DV DU HO HQ LF HF MF ST KC 9.5 2.6 30.5 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.5 42.2 0.0 0.0 73.8 0.0 89.0 8.9 19.8 24.3 0.0 22.8 5.0 0.0 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 9.5 30.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.5 42.2 0.0 0.0 101.8 0.0 89.0 8.9 18.4 24.3 0.0 22.8 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Z4 production imports consumption exports 3.4 0.0 7.8 1.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 38.0 11.5 0.0 0.0 47.2 0.0 25.1 2.8 20.0 0.4 0.0 13.7 1.5 1.9 5.3 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 20.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 5.3 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.0 11.5 0.0 0.0 49.2 0.0 25.1 2.8 26.3 20.9 0.0 13.7 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

52

Z5 production imports consumption exports PT BU NA RG RQ ES EQ PR JF DO DQ DV DU HO HQ LF HF MF ST KC 2.0 0.0 4.9 0.0 0.0 27.8 6.9 0.0 10.3 0.0 11.8 25.0 0.0 0.0 24.5 0.0 75.7 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.8 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 3.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 27.8 6.9 0.0 10.3 0.0 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.5 0.0 74.7 0.0 0.1 1.3 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Z6 production imports consumption exports 1.1 0.2 1.0 0.0 0.0 22.6 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.0 0.0 4.0 18.5 0.0 13.9 6.8 24.8 0.0 7.3 0.0 1.8 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 24.1 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.5 0.0 13.9 1.8 24.8 0.0 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Z7 production imports consumption exports PT BU NA RG RQ ES EQ PR JF DO DQ DV DU HO HQ LF HF MF ST KC 0.2 0.0 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.2 0.0 17.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 20.9 0.0 38.0 4.1 61.6 0.0 8.4 0.3 7.2 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 7.4 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.2 0.0 17.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.9 0.0 38.0 4.1 40.9 0.0 8.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

Z8 production imports consumption exports 3.2 1.1 21.4 0.0 0.0 28.2 7.1 0.0 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.4 0.0 41.2 2.7 29.6 0.0 5.6 4.6 3.1 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 6.3 21.4 0.0 0.0 28.2 7.1 0.0 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.4 0.0 41.2 2.7 30.9 0.0 5.6 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

53

Z9 production imports consumption exports PT BU NA RG RQ ES EQ PR JF DO DQ DV DU HO HQ LF HF MF ST KC 9.2 0.0 67.5 0.0 0.0 32.3 64.5 10.8 39.0 68.9 24.0 0.0 24.0 0.0 128.2 43.4 65.1 0.0 29.9 5.7 11.7 20.9 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.9 20.9 71.7 0.0 0.0 32.3 64.5 10.8 39.0 72.0 24.0 0.0 24.0 0.0 128.2 43.4 65.1 0.0 29.9 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Table A5.5 Crude oil supply

From/to ZO1 ZO2 ZO3 ZO4 ZO5 ZO6 ZO7 ZO8 ZO9 Z1 Z2 Z3 Z4 Z5 Z6 Z7 Z8 Z9 611.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 208.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 322.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.2 115.2 198.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.0 0.0 38.9 33.4 0.0 109.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 14.8 33.1 0.0 0.0 207.2 28.4 420.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 153.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 225.9

Unit: million of tons

Remark 1 : The crude oil supply is also splitted according to the five qualities of crude which are considered in the model. The flows of oil products between the geographical areas are presented on the same way. Remark 2 : The crude oil supply of the LP model is not easy to compare to the "oil production" statistics from IEA or BP-Stats which includes also, shale oil, oil sands and NGLs.

54

Annex 6 Description of the vensim external functions

This annex gives the description of the following C++ function which are loaded to exchange data between Vensim and Gams. IMARGCOST : reading marginal costs from gams to vensim OCARBON : transfering carbon quotas from vensim to gams ODEMAND : transfering demand from vensim to gams OPRICE : transfering oil price from vensim to gams ORESPRI : transfering other resource prices from vensim to gams OSPEC : transfering automotive fuel specifications from vensim to gams OSUPPLY : transfering crude oil supply from vensim to gams OTAX : transfering taxes from vensim to gams OTIME : transfering time from vensim to gams

A.6.1 Imargcost function

From the output of the optimization process, the marginal costs of the oil products are saved in the file grandourse_1v.prn. Then, the marginal costs are read by vensim through the IMARGCOST function. The product's nomenclature used in the grandourse_1v.prn is the end-user nomenclature. Thus, this means that the ex-refinery supply price of an oil product are a weighted average of the marginal costs of the corresponding refined products. For instance, the LPG marginal cost is the average marginal cost of butane and propane.
Example : grandourse_1v.prn
"Z1" "Z2" "Z3" "Z4" "Z5" "Z6" "LPG" 220.000 220.000 209.451 "NPH" 217.075 208.419 202.715 "GSL" 226.549 211.193 210.252 "JET" 213.778 200.422 205.621 "KRS" 213.778 200.422 205.621 "HTO" 165.340 172.007 216.448 "GDO" 174.776 176.076 200.829 "RFO" 165.956 171.775 177.261 "LUB" 165.956 171.744 177.261 "BTM" 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 "CKP" 196.833 173.784 264.066 "MAB" 165.956 171.521 177.261 "Z7" "Z8" "Z9" 220.000 216.896 220.000 220.000 220.000 220.000 204.115 199.780 206.583 208.179 204.912 216.115 215.652 202.124 212.105 212.301 207.908 214.404 211.863 195.715 187.861 208.179 193.108 243.049 211.863 195.715 187.861 208.179 193.108 243.049 189.070 189.717 181.417 183.412 191.994 177.921 195.429 190.855 182.773 185.869 189.063 180.085 180.586 176.261 183.099 167.962 173.821 171.237 178.661 176.261 183.099 167.201 173.821 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 191.086 193.302 0.000 147.408 215.990 163.749 177.371 176.261 183.099 164.776 173.821 167.575

A.6.2 Ocarbon function

The carbon function transfers the carbon quotas (ourse_carbon.txt) and taxes (ourse_tax.txt) per region in the World. In the following examples, there is no restriction on the carbon quotas (equal to 9999) and there is no tax (equal to 0). Both quotas and taxes apply on million of tons of CO2.
Example : ourse_carbon.txt
carbquota('Z1')= carbquota('Z2')= 9999.00; 9999.00;

55

carbquota('Z3')= carbquota('Z4')= carbquota('Z5')= carbquota('Z6')= carbquota('Z7')= carbquota('Z8')= carbquota('Z9')=

9999.00; 9999.00; 9999.00; 9999.00; 9999.00; 9999.00; 9999.00;

Example : ourse_tax.txt
carbtax('Z1')= carbtax('Z2')= carbtax('Z3')= carbtax('Z4')= carbtax('Z5')= carbtax('Z6')= carbtax('Z7')= carbtax('Z8')= carbtax('Z9')= 0.00; 0.00; 0.00; 0.00; 0.00; 0.00; 0.00; 0.00; 0.00;

A.6.3 Odemand function

The Odemand function exports oil product demand to the Gams file. Two files are created : - ourse_demand.txt (which is used if the refining optimization starts from a scratch basis associated with the OURSE function) - cont_ourse_demand.txt (which is used if the refining optimization uses an advanced basis associated with the OURSE2 function) The oil product demand is defined according to the end-user nomenclatures. The data should be defined in million of metric tons. In the cont_ourse_demand.txt file there is no "table" declaration as it is assumed that the Gams table has been already created in a previous run (cf paragraph 7.4)

Example : ourse_demand.txt
Table DEMAND(IPROD,ZONE) Z1 Z2 LPG 80.20 16.00 NPH 18.10 9.00 GSL 417.50 41.60 JET 89.50 8.90 KRS 3.60 2.80 HTO 97.30 17.20 GDO 122.90 46.10 RFO 63.80 36.00 LUB 10.40 6.10 BTM 36.60 6.20 CKP 43.20 4.60 MAB 40.30 6.30
;

Z3 19.00 30.50 98.50 36.80 5.40 89.00 101.80 26.30 16.40 13.00 5.00 22.80

Z4 10.60 12.20 38.00 11.50 0.00 27.90 49.20 43.90 3.30 6.70 1.50 13.70

Z5 7.60 0.50 34.70 9.80 0.50 24.50 11.80 66.10 8.60 8.60 1.30 0.10

Z6 5.90 1.00 24.10 5.50 0.00 13.90 18.50 17.50 9.00 8.00 0.00 7.30

Z7 14.80 5.50 35.20 6.50 10.50 38.00 20.90 41.40 3.60 3.60 0.30 8.40

Z8 12.50 21.40 35.30 8.00 3.00 41.20 27.40 27.20 6.40 5.00 4.60 5.60

Z9 41.70 71.70 107.50 31.70 57.30 78.20 120.00 108.50 15.00 15.00 5.70 29.90

cont_ourse_demand.txt

56

DEMAND('LPG','Z1')= DEMAND('LPG','Z2')= DEMAND('LPG','Z3')= DEMAND('CKP','Z9')= DEMAND('MAB','Z1')= DEMAND('MAB','Z2')= DEMAND('MAB','Z3')= DEMAND('MAB','Z4')= DEMAND('MAB','Z5')= DEMAND('MAB','Z6')= DEMAND('MAB','Z7')= DEMAND('MAB','Z8')= DEMAND('MAB','Z9')=

80.20 16.00 19.00 5.70 40.30 6.30 22.80 13.70 0.10 7.30 8.40 5.60 29.90

; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;

A.6.4 Oprice function

The Oprice function transfers the crude oil price from Vensim to Gams. The crude oil price of the reference crude oil (brent) is introduced in US$/baril in the file ourse_price.txt :
Example : ourse_price.txt

cprice= 24.50 ; In the gams file, the crude oil prices are defined in US$/ton for the five typical crude oil. The econometric relationships which are used are the long run equilibrium equations between the crude oil prices (co-integration analysis) The general formulation of these crude oil price relationships are : crude price = a * brent price + b They have been estimated over the period : feb 1991 jul 2003 with monthly data. From the co-integration analysis (Engle and Granger, Johansen procedures) it appears for each of them that a long term equilibrium could not be rejected. Moreover, the stability tests (Chow test, cusum test, Gregory and Hansen test) have been performed and no structural break has been detected. The following table summarizes the estimated coefficient and the R2 (from the Engle and Granger procedure)
Table A6.1 Co-integration relationships between crude oil prices
^ b 0.494827 0.779408

Iranian light (ar. light 22) Iranian heavy (ar. heavy 33) Forcados (44) Sahara blend 'condensate 55)

0.928548 0.903629 0.982487 0.980727

R 0.974848 0.958772 0.995981 0.990943

Warning : If you want to run the model with refining capacities set to zero, you have to introduce the crude oil price with a negative sign. In this case, the refining capacities are

57

not considered in the model's RHS (IMODEL=0) and the absolute value of the crude oil price is used.

A.6.5 Orespri function

The Orespri function transfers the prices of other resource (refinery feedstocks) which are listed below through the file ourse_respri.txt. All the prices are defined in US dollar per metric ton.
Table A6.2 List of refinery feedstocks :

BU : Butane EB : ETBE - Ethyl tertio butil ester EC : Rapeseed methyl ester EO : Ethanol GN : Natural gas HY : Hydrogene I4 : Isobutane KC : Petroleum Coke MB : MTBE Methyl tertio butil ester ME : Methanol NB : Normal Butane PT : Propane
Example : ourse_respri.txt
OROBJ('KC2IN')= OROBJ('PT1IN')= OROBJ('BU1IN')= OROBJ('GN1IN')= OROBJ('MB1IN')= OROBJ('NB1IN')= OROBJ('I41IN')= OROBJ('ME1IN')= OROBJ('EB1IN')= OROBJ('EO1IN')= OROBJ('HY1IN')= OROBJ('EC1IN')= 300.00; 220.00; 220.00; 190.40; 260.00; 180.00; 230.00; 157.00; 350.00; 250.00; 100.00; 300.00;

A.6.6 Ospec function

The OSPEC function transfers the automotive fuel specifications for the five gasoline grades and the four diesel oil from vensim to gams through the file ourse_spec.txt. The following example gives the specification of the gasoline grades and the diesl oil for 2000 (cf table A6.3 and A6.4) . The only specifications which are mentionned in the Vensim file and which area transfered are those which could change. The unit of these specifications are given in the second column of tables A6.3 and A6.4. These specifications are namely : AR : aromatics (gasoline)

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BZ : benzene (gasoline) OC : Olefins (gasoline) SO : sulphur (gasoline and diesel oil) CE : Cetane number (diesel oil) PA : poly-aromatics (diesel oil) The C++ function has to be changed if some other specifications should be modify durint the simulation. The code names are built as follows : ORSPEC('AABBCC') with AA : specification BB : MI for minimum or MX for maximum CC : product's name
Table A6.3: Specifications of the gasoline grades (year 2000)
quality Density min Density max RVP max RON MON Sulfur max Aromatic max Olefin max Oxygen max Benzene max unit t/m3 t/m3 bar point point %m %vol. %vol. %m %vol. RG 0.720 0.775 0.8 92 82 0.050 30 12 2.7 1 RQ 0.720 0.775 0.8 95 85 0.050 30 12 2.7 1 PR 0.720 0.775 0.8 95 85 0.015 42 18 2.7 1 ES 0.720 0.775 0.8 90 80 0.100 55 30 2.7 5 EQ 0.720 0.775 0.8 94 84 0.050 45 20 2.7 3

Table A6.4: Specifications of diesel oil (year 2000)

quality Density min Density max Sulfur max. Freezing point Viscosity Cetane Poly-aromatics max unit t/m3 t/m3 %m C cSt point %m DO 0.82 0.86 0.05 -5 2 45 7 DV 0.82 0.845 0.035 -5 2 51 11 DQ 0.82 0.88 0.2 -5 2 45 11 DU 0.82 0.88 0.7 -5 2 45 20

Example : ourse_spec.txt
ORSPEC('ARMXRG')= ORSPEC('OCMXRG')= ORSPEC('BZMXRG')= ORSPEC('SOMXRG')= ORSPEC('CEMIDU')= 30.0000; 12.0000; 1.0000; 0.0500; 0.4500;

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ORSPEC('SOMXDU')= ORSPEC('PAMXDU')=

0.7000; 20.0000;

A.6.7 OSUPPLY function

This function transfers the crude oil potential supply per quality (Brent, Arabian Light, Arabian Heavy, Forcados, Condensate) from vensim to gams. This a potential supply because the total amount of the available crude oil has to be greater than the crude oil which processed in the refineries. The figures which are provided in the Excel file crudeoilsupply.xls are in million of tons. They refers to "aggregated" crude oil : for instance, the Brent (code 11) stands for all the crude oil qualities which could be associated (in terms of both sulphur contents, API specific gravity and yields to the topping unit) to the North Sea Brent crude oil.
Example : ourse-supply.txt
Table SHARE1(ZONEO,ICRUD) 11 22 ZO1 130.96 332.59 ZO2 43.69 115.41 ZO3 262.77 44.91 ZO4 0.00 0.00 ZO5 213.55 205.19 ZO6 210.36 15.52 ZO7 277.12 433.17 ZO8 88.90 44.50 ZO9 100.30 93.10 ; 33 90.46 200.34 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 404.19 0.00 0.00 44 2.50 5.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 114.25 1.00 19.00 21.55 55 130.95 0.00 11.07 0.00 0.00 62.20 17.73 0.00 11.25

A.6.8 OTAX function

This function transfers the carbon taxes from vensim to gams. The carbon tax is applied on CO2 emission from refinery's fuel. If there is a given amount of emissions without tax, some values have to be introduced through the Vensim variable 'carbonquota'. Different carbon taxes could be introduced for the nine main refining regions (Z1 to Z9). They are defined in US$/ton of CO2
Example : ourse_tax.txt
carbtax('Z1')= carbtax('Z2')= carbtax('Z3')= carbtax('Z4')= carbtax('Z5')= carbtax('Z6')= carbtax('Z7')= carbtax('Z8')= carbtax('Z9')= 20.00; 20.00; 20.00; 20.00; 20.00; 20.00; 20.00; 20.00; 20.00;

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A.6.9 OTIME function

This function transfers time from vensim to gams. Two files are created : - ourse_time.txt (which is used if the refining optimization starts from a scratch basis associated with the OURSE function) - ourse_ctime.txt (which is used if the refining optimization uses an advanced basis associated with the OURSE2 function) The time period is used in the gams file to read and to update the refining capacities and to modify the correspondance between the oil demand s nomenclatures

Example : ourse_time.txt
set stime(t) / 2001 / ;

ourse_ctime.txt
ctime= 2001 ;

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Annex 7 Gams refining model

VARIABLES YZ(J,ZON1) refining model variables FLOW(ICRUD,ZONEO,ZON1) FLOWPROD(oripro1,ZON1O,ZON1) flux de produits entre zones Z total cost ;

POSITIVE VARIABLE

YZ,FLOW,FLOWPROD;

EQUATIONS COST obj. fn : total refinery cost CONTRE(I,ZON1) equality constraints CONTRG(I,ZON1) greater than constraints CONTRLG(I,ZON1) less than constraints BOUNDUP(J,ZON1) upper bounds CRUDDEM(ICRUD,ZON1) SUPPLY(ICRUD,ZONEO) EXPORT(OREXPRO1,ORIPRO1,ZON1O) IMPORT(ORIMPRO1,ORIPRO1,ZON1) MAXIM(ZON1) BOUNDCRUD(ZONEO,ZON1) INVESTUN(INVUNIT,ZONE) CARBEMIS(ZON1) EQCALIB1 EQCALIB2 EQCALIB3 EQCALIB4 EQCALIB5 EQCALIB6 EQCALIB7 EQCALIB8 EQCALIB9 EQCALIB11 EQCALIB10(ICRUD) EQCALIB12 EQCALIB13 EQCALIB14 EQCALIB15 EQCALIB16 EQCALIB17 EQCALIB18 EQCALIB19 EQCALIB20 EQCALIB21 EQCALIB22 ; COST .. Z =E= SUM((J,ZON1), OROBJZ(J,ZON1)*YZ(J,ZON1))+

SUM((ICRUD,ZONEO,ZON1),(((FOBPRICE(ICRUD,ZONEO,ZON1)+FREIGHT(ICRUD,ZONEO,ZO N1))*1.0025)* FLOW(ICRUD,ZONEO,ZON1))) +SUM((oripro1,ZON1O,ZON1),FREIGHTP(ZON1O,ZON1)*FLOWPROD(oripro1,ZON1O,ZON1) );

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CONTRE(I,ZON1)$ (ORSLAUB(I) ne INF and ORSLALB(I) ne -INF) .. SUM(J, ORAZ(I,J,ZON1)*YZ(J,ZON1)) =E= ORRHSZ(I,ZON1) ; CONTRG(I,ZON1)$ (ORSLALB(I) eq -INF) .. SUM(J, ORAZ(I,J,ZON1)*YZ(J,ZON1)) =G= ORRHSZ(I,ZON1) ; CONTRLG(I,ZON1)$ (ORSLAUB(I) eq INF ) .. SUM(J, ORAZ(I,J,ZON1)*YZ(J,ZON1)) =L= ORRHSZ(I,ZON1) ; CRUDDEM(ICRUD,ZON1) .. SUM(ZONEO,(ALLOW(ICRUD,ZONEO,ZON1)*FLOW(ICRUD,ZONEO,ZON1))) -YZ(ICRUD,ZON1) =E= 0 ; SUPPLY(ICRUD,ZONEO) .. SUM(ZON1,(ALLOW(ICRUD,ZONEO,ZON1)*FLOW(ICRUD,ZONEO,ZON1)))=L=SHARE1(ZONEO,I CRUD) ; EXPORT(OREXPRO1,ORIPRO1,ZON1O)$INTEREXP(ORIPRO1,OREXPRO1) .. SUM(ZON1,INTERFLOW(oripro1,ZON1O,ZON1)*FLOWPROD(oripro1,ZON1O,ZON1)) YZ(OREXPRO1,ZON1O) =E= 0; IMPORT(ORIMPRO1,ORIPRO1,ZON1)$INTERIMP(ORIPRO1,ORIMPRO1) .. SUM(ZON1O,INTERFLOW(oripro1,ZON1O,ZON1)*FLOWPROD(oripro1,ZON1O,ZON1)) YZ(ORIMPRO1,ZON1) =E= 0; CARBEMIS(ZON1) .. YZ('QPOLUCA',ZON1) - YZ('QPOLUCA1',ZON1) YZ('QPOLUCA2',ZON1) =L= 0. ; BOUNDUP(J,ZON1)$ (ORUBZ(J,ZON1) ne INF ) .. YZ(J,ZON1) =L= ORUBZ(J,ZON1) ; MAXIM(ZON1) .. YZ('KC2IN',ZON1) =L= 5; BOUNDCRUD(ZONEO,ZON1) .. SUM(ICRUD,FLOW(ICRUD,ZONEO,ZON1))=L=MAXCRUD(ZONEO,ZON1); INVESTUN(INVUNIT,ZON1) .. YZ(INVUNIT,ZON1) =L= 5000*INVEST(INVUNIT,ZON1); EQCALIB1 .. FLOWPROD('DV','Z2','Z3') =L= 1; EQCALIB2 .. FLOWPROD('DV','Z2','Z4') =L= 1; EQCALIB3 .. FLOWPROD('NA','Z6','Z1') =G= 4; EQCALIB4 .. FLOWPROD('DV','Z6','Z4') =L= 2; EQCALIB5 .. FLOWPROD('DV','Z6','Z3') =L= 2; EQCALIB6 .. FLOWPROD('DV','Z1','Z3') =L= 1; EQCALIB7 .. FLOWPROD('DV','Z5','Z3') =L= 15; EQCALIB8 .. FLOWPROD('DV','Z7','Z3') =L= 5; EQCALIB9 .. FLOWPROD('LF','Z6','Z4') =G= 6; EQCALIB11 .. FLOWPROD('LF','Z5','Z4') =G= 6; EQCALIB10(ICRUD) .. FLOW(ICRUD,'ZO7','Z6') =E=0; EQCALIB12 .. SUM(ZON1, YZ('ME1IN',ZON1)) =L= 30 ; EQCALIB13 .. SUM(ZON1, YZ('EO1IN',ZON1)) =L= 70 ; EQCALIB14 .. SUM(ZON1, YZ('EC1IN',ZON1)) =L= 100; EQCALIB15 .. SUM(ZON1, YZ('MB1IN',ZON1)) =L= 30 ; EQCALIB16 .. SUM(ZON1, YZ('EB1IN',ZON1)) =L= 60 ; EQCALIB17 .. SUM(ZON1, YZ('BU1IN',ZON1)) =L= 140; EQCALIB18 .. SUM(ZON1, YZ('PT1IN',ZON1)) =L= 140; EQCALIB19 .. SUM(ZON1, YZ('NA1IN',ZON1)) =L= 40 ; EQCALIB20 .. SUM(ZON1, YZ('NB1IN',ZON1)) =L= 40 ; EQCALIB21 .. SUM(ZON1O, FLOWPROD('RG',ZON1O,'Z1')+ FLOWPROD('RQ',ZON1O,'Z1')) =L= 30; EQCALIB22 .. SUM(ZON1O, FLOWPROD('ES',ZON1O,'Z6')) =L= 2;

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The labels of the Gams sets (I) and (J) are based on the juxtaposition of the keywords names (2 letters) of the crude oil, products, units (which could be splitted in several severities), specifications, etc. . Some specific keywords (for instance, PROD for production) that we describ below are also used. Most of the keywords names have been given in the tables or annexes of the report : Crude oil : table 6 4.5, table 7 (crude oil cuts) 4.5 Oil products : annex A2.2 (final products) , table A6.2 (refinery feedstocks) Refining units : annex 1 Gasoline and diesel oil specifications : annex A.6.6 Here, we present the general writing of the balances of intermediate and final products which make a large part of the model's equations. A list of intermediate products of the topping unit and some other pure products is given below.
- Balances of intermediate products

A balance is written as follows : - two letters for the product's name - two letters for the severety's name (operating mode of a processing unit) - two letters for the input feed of the unit - two letters for the crude oil (eventually including the cut name) example : KE4B stands for Kerosene (KE) from 4B crude 44 (forcados) cut B the input feed of the balance of the kerosene from crude 44 cut B is the variable "4B" with a coefficient equal to 0.11. The names of the output flows are written in the other sense : - two letters for the crude oil (eventually including the cut name) - two letters for the input feed of the unit - two letters for the severety's name (operating mode of a processing unit) - two letters for the product's name Thus, "4BKEDO" stands for crude oil 44, cut B, kerosene going to the diesel oil pool DO. This variable has a coefficient equal to -1.
- Balances of final products

A balance name is written : - PROZZ with ZZ the product's name

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example : PRORG production of the gasoline grade RG The following list gives the intermediate products of the topping unit and some other pure products: FB : refinery fuel C2 : refinery gas C3 : propane P3 : propylene C4 : butane N4 : normal butane I4 : isobutane IB : isobutene NB : normal butene H2 : hydrogene (80% pure) HY : hydrogene LG : light gasoline HN : heavy naphtha KE : kerosene GO : straight run gas oil AR : atmospheric residue The following list gives the specific keywords : CAP1 : installed capacities CAP2 : investements (level 2 of capacities) COMBUS : refinery fuel COUT : cost EX : exports IN : imports PERTES : losses QPOLU : quantity of pollutant POLU : pollutant emisions PROD : production (in mass term) SOLD : demand VOLU : volume of production

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