Aspects of Floods on the Danube River

Lidia Sljan, Alexandrina Frncu, Smaranda Dru National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management-Romanian lidia.salajan@yahoo.com

Abstract
In this paper, the causes of floods produced over the period January-May 2010 are identified. These ones were due to the high discharges recorded at the end of the year 2009, the precipitation amounts and the snow melting. For the months of June-July and November-December, the floods occurred as a result of the precipitation fallen in the upper and middle Danube basins. The causes of reaching the maximum level of flood over the period June-July were the high discharges recorded in the previous months and the significant liquid precipitation (100-230 mm) fallen over extended areas in the upper and middle Danube basins. The flood of 2010 had an atypical character, with maximum values recorded in January-February, June-July and November-December, and negative effects along Brila-Tulcea sector over the period June-July. By comparing, in the year 2006, the discharges kept on growing in the first six months, due to the melting snow and the precipitation fallen in the basin. These ones determined levels increase and historical discharges exceeding the DEFENCE LEVELS along Portile de Fier downstream sector. The volumes and the mean monthly discharges of 2006 and 2010 on the Danube, at the inlet into the 3 country (Bazia section), were analyzed. The total volume for 2010 was of 241.7 billion m , and for 3 2006, it was of 204.1 billion m . The high flood elements were calculated for the year 2010. In this study, we used as data, the levels and discharges of 2006 and 2010 respectively, and the recorded precipitation amounts. The graph representation and the determination of high flood elements were made, and the Excel programme was used for data processing. For the calculation of the flood volumes, a numerical method was used to approximate the full function over a time interval, the so called trapeze method. The integral curve is given by a sum of trapeze areas, cumulated over a time interval, starting from the lower part of the definition domain of Q (discharge) function. A comparison between the floods of 2006 and 2010 was made along Bazia upstream sector, at the following hydrometric stations: Budapest, Dravaszabolcs, Mitrovia, Senta, Lubicevski Most. Then, a comparison between the discharges of 2006 and those in 2010, at Budapest hydrometric station, was made. It can be noticed that the maximum discharge values in 2010, are close to those of 2006, but the flood moment and the causes of occurrence are different, as it can be seen in the analyzed graphs. Over the period September-October, one can notice minor floods with maximum discharge values 3 below 7000 m /s, and in the second half of November, the discharge values significantly increased, 3 producing a flood with maximum discharges exceeding 10000 m /s, in December, the second one within the statistic values chain, occurring once in one hundred years. In the last 40 years, the most significant floods with maximum discharge levels exceeding 12000 m s, at the inlet into the country, were recorded in 1970, 1981, 2005, 2006 and 2010. Keywords: precipitation, temperature, level, discharge, volume, flood.
3

BALWOIS 2012 -Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia -28 May, 2 June 2012

1. Introduction
In the first part of the paper, the general characteristics and the hydrographic regime of the Danube River are presented, as well as the meteorological conditions of the year 2010. Then the 2006 and 2010s flood causes are explained. In this study, we approached the analysis on different areas at the inlet into the country (Bazias section), at Bazias upstream sector and at Portile de Fier downstream sector, as well as the presentation of their effects (especially those in June - July on Galati Tulcea sector produced by the backwater phenomenon and the propagation on the Danube). In order to reveal atypical phenomena, we also considered the analysis of liquid flow of 2006 on the Danube along the upstream sector, in comparison with those at the inlet into the country and then a comparison with the flooding in Budapest occurred in 2006, with the one in 2010 is made. The analysis of the minimum floods over the period September-October and of the historical ones occurred in November-December 2010 was made. There were also determined the 2010s flood wave elements and a comparison of volumes recorded in 2006 and 2010, respectively, was made, together with the graphic representation of the most significant floods in the last 40 years.

2. Methods and data

In this study, we used as data, the levels and discharges of 2006 and 2010 respectively, and the recorded precipitation amounts. The programs ArcGIS Arc Map and Excell were used for data processing. To calculate the flood volumes, a numerical method was applied to approximate the integral over a time interval, the so-called trapeze method, carried out for the discharges recorded at the inlet into the country, in Bazias section for each month of the years 2006 and 2010, and to determine the flood wave elements, certain periods in the graph were considered, and then the volumes recorded in 2010 were calculated by the help of numerical formulas.

3. General characterization of the Danube River With its 2.857 km length, (Posea Gr., p.90-94), the Danube is the second river in Europe after the
Volga and the third as economic importance, after the Rhine and Volga. From the total length, 1075 km cross Romanias territory, representing 38% of the total flow. It flows exclusively on the Romanian 2 territory over a length of 236 km. It has a hydrographic basin of 805.300 km (Gtescu P., 2010, 2 p.16), 221.670 km (28%) of which belonging to the Romanian territory, (C. Diaconu p.1). The Danubes stream splits into the upper reach (from its spring to Poarta Devin, with a length of 1.060 km), the middle reach (between Poarta Devin and Bazia locality, over a length of only 725 km) and the lower reach (see Figure 1). The lower reach unfolds over a length of 1075 km, between Bazia and Sulina localities, settling the natural state border with the Republic of Serbia, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Moldova and Ukraine. As it crosses a lot of natural regions, the lower stream is separated into 5 sectors (Ujvari, 1972): Carpathian passes (144 km); south-Pontic (566 km); Oriental-Pontic with swamps (195 km); Pre-Dobrudjean (80 km); Deltaic (90 km).

4. Hydrologic regime of the Danube River

High waters occur in spring, as a result of snow melting and heavy rains (in March-April on the upper and middle reaches and in May on the lower reach). The discharge increases from upstream to 3 3 3 3 downstream: 1.470 m /s at Passau, 1.920 m /s at Vienna, 2.350 m /s at Budapest, 5.300 m /s in 3 Porile de Fier pass, 6.470 m /s at Ceatalul Ismail (Ptlgeanca in the Danube Delta) , (Posea Gr., 2004 p. 90-94). The maximum disharges reflect the continental regime of the river: 15.100 m /s at Orova (13 April 3/ 3 1940), 15.900 m s (May 1942), 15.500 m /s at Ceatalul Ismail (5 June 1970). The lowest discharges
3

BALWOIS 2012 -Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia -28 May, 2 June 2012

are recorded when low waters occur in autumn and in some cases in winter: 1.250 m /s at Orova (12 3 3 January 1954), 1.450 m /s at Oltenia (January 1964), 1.350 m /s at Ceatalul Ismail (October 1921).

5. Meteorological characteristics of the year 2010 in the Danube Hydrographic Basin

From the temperatures point of view, as estimated by the American specialists, the year 2010 was the warmest in the history of meteorological observations and measurements, and as the British specialists said, it was equal to the warmest year, 1998. From the precipitation point of view, heavy rainfalls and 24-hour maximum precipitation amounts were recorded in most of the country, causing flash floods, and as extreme phenomena, hail, storms and wind gusts were recorded.

6. Causes of occurrence of floods in 2010 on the Danube River

The year 2010, was a normal one from the meteorological point of view, with high temperatures and precipitation amounts exceeding the mean multiannual means in some areas. This is the reason why, the hydrological regime of the Danube River and, particularly, the maximum discharge was atypical, one can say that, in 2010, the discharge values remained high above the monthly multiannual means and recorded historical values in the months of June, July and December, at the inlet into the country (Bazia section) were recorded. The causes of the floods occurred in January-May 2010 were the high discharges produced at the end of 2009, the significant precipitation amounts and the water coming from snow melting in the Danube basin. The cause of the floods recorded in June-July and November-December was exclussively the precipitation fallen in the upper and middle Danuber basin, whose values exceeded 200 mm.

Figure 1 The Danube Hydrographic Basin

BALWOIS 2012 -Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia -28 May, 2 June 2012

7. Hydrologic characterization of the floods on the Danube River in 2010

The year 2010 began with a mean monthly discharge value of 9150 m /s, recorded at the inlet into the 3 country (Bazias section), which exceeded the monthly multiannual mean (4950 m /s). The high flood 3 value of 11000 m /s recorded by the middle of the month explains this value. This flood was caused by the significant precipitation amounts fallen in the Tisa, Sava and Morava River basins, added to the high discharge values recorded even since the beginning of 2009. Thus, in January, the discharges ranged from 9200 m /s (value recorded on the first day) to 11000 3 3 m /s (maximum monthly value) recorded on 14 January, then they decreased up to 5600 m /s (minimum monthly value), recorded at the end of the month (Figure 2). Elements of the flood over the period 1 January - 8 February 2010 Time of increase = 14 days; Time of decrease = 25 days; Duration (total duration) = 39 days; Mean monthly multiannual discharge= 4950 m /s; Total volume = 25,272 billion m ; Mean monthly discharge (Q ml) = 7500 m /s; a. The flood in February-March at the inlet into the country and along Bazias upstream sector in 2010 In February, the discharges decreased their values from 5300 m /s, value recorded on the first day, to 3 3 4100 m /s on 7 February, to 5100 m /s, on 14 February, relatively stationary around this value by 17 3 February, then increseing up to the maximum monthly value of 10700 m /s, recorded at the end of the 3 month. The discharges continued to rise also in the first decade of March up to 11500 m /s (maximum monthly value). This flood lasted long and had a time of increase of about one month. An important contribution to the 3 maximum discharge of 11500 m /s was brought by the Sava and Morava tributaries, on which more abundant rainfalls were recorded, combined with snow melting due to the external temperatures rising. These high discharge values were added to those on the Danube River, bringing a contribution of 3 1600 m /s and extending the flood duration (Figure 3). Elements of the flood over the period 09 February - 23 March 2010 Time of increase = 27 days; Time of decrease = 17 days; Duration = 44 days; Total volume = 31,82 billion m ; Mean monthly multiannual discharge = 5300 m /s in February and 6800 m /s in March; Maximum discharge (Q max) 8.03.2010 = 11500 m /s; Mean monthly discharge (Ql )=8370 m /s;
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

BALWOIS 2012 -Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia -28 May, 2 June 2012

12000 11400 10800 10200 9600 9000 8400 7800 7200 6600

Discarge (mc/s)

6000 5400 4800 4200 3600 3000 2400 1800 1200 600 0

1/1/2010

1/3/2010

1/5/2010

1/7/2010

1/9/2010

2/2/2010

2/4/2010

2/6/2010

1/11/2010

1/13/2010

1/15/2010

1/17/2010

1/19/2010

1/21/2010

1/23/2010

1/25/2010

1/27/2010

1/29/2010

Bazias

Budapesta

Dravaszabolcs

Senta

Mitrovica

1/31/2010

L.Most

Data

Figure 2 Discharges recorded at Budapest, Dravaszabolcs, Mitrovica, Senta, L. Most hydrometric stations and in Bazias section over the period 1 January - 8 February 2010 b. Characteristics of the flood in March-April 2010 at the inlet into the country (Bazia section) and along Bazia upstream sector For the flood produced in March-April, specific to spring high waters and particularly to high floods, although there were precipitation amounts and snow cover in the basin, due to temperature variations, one could noticed that there were no negative effects along Porile de Fier downstream sector. The maxumim discharge values were lower and the high flood was almost stationary. The last decade of March was characterized by high discharge levels at the inlet into the country 3 3 (Bazias section) starting from 6900 m /s to 8700 m /s, and the month of April began with a decrease in 3 3 the discharge values from 8300 m /s, recorded on the first day of the month to 6900 m /s, on 16-17 3 April, rising to 8700 m /s (maximum monthly value) on 24 and 25 April, then decreasing by the end of 3 the month to 6800 m /s (minimum monthly value) ( see Figure 4). Elements of the flood over the period March-April 2010 Q max = 8700 m /s, in the period 24-25 April; Mean monthly discharge (Q ml) = 7700 m /s; Time of increase = 17 days; Time of decrease = 19 days; Duration = 36 days; Wt= 23,96 billion m ;
3 3 3

BALWOIS 2012 -Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia -28 May, 2 June 2012

2/8/2010

12000 11400 10800 10200 9600 9000 8400 7800 7200 6600 6000 5400 4800 4200 3600 3000 2400 1800 1200 600 0

Discarge (mc/s)

2/9/2010

3/1/2010

3/3/2010

3/5/2010

3/7/2010

2/11/2010

2/13/2010

2/15/2010

2/17/2010

2/19/2010

2/21/2010

2/23/2010

2/25/2010

2/27/2010

3/9/2010

3/11/2010

3/13/2010

3/15/2010

3/17/2010

3/19/2010

3/21/2010

Bazias

Budapesta

Dravaszabolcs

Senta

Mitrovica

L.Most

Figure 3 Discharges recorded at Budapest, Dravaszabolcs, Mitrovica, Senta, L. Most hydrometric stations and in Bazias section over the period February-March 2010 c. Characteristics of the flood of 01- 31 May 2010 at the inlet into the country (Bazia section) and along Bazia upstream sector In May, the discharge values decreased to 6500 m /s, on the first day of the month, to 5500 m /s 3 (minimum value) on 7th and 9th, then incresed up to 6600 m /s, on 14th, relatively stationary within 3 3 the next days, with values between 6600 and 6500 m /s, and continued to rise up to 10500 m /s 3 (maximum monthly value), on 27th to decrease again by the end of the month to 10000 m /s (see Figure 5). The continuous increse of discharge at the inlet into the country (Bazias section) up to the maximum 3 value of 10500 m /s, was determined both by the flood on the Danube and by those on its tributaries, the Sava and Morava rivers, due to an atmospheric instability which brought rainfalls (80-150 mm). Element of the flood over the period 1 - 31 May 2010 Time of increase = 27 days; Time of decrease = 5 days; Duration = 32 days; Total volume = 21,02 billion m ; Qmmax = 10 500 m /s and Qmml = 7350 m /s
3 3 3 3 3

BALWOIS 2012 -Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia -28 May, 2 June 2012

3/23/2010

Data

9200 8800 8400 8000 7600 7200 6800 6400 6000 5600 5200 4800 4400 4000 3600 3200 2800 2400 2000 1600 1200 800 400 0
4/1/2010 4/3/2010 4/5/2010 4/7/2010 3/24/2010 3/26/2010 3/28/2010 3/30/2010 4/9/2010 4/11/2010 4/13/2010 4/15/2010 4/17/2010 4/19/2010 4/21/2010 4/23/2010 4/25/2010 4/27/2010
5/29/2010
L.Most

Discaege(mc/s)

Bazias

Budapesta

Dravaszabolcs

Senta

Mitrovica

L.Most Data

Figure 4 Disharges recorded at Budapest, Dravaszabolcs, Mitrovica, Senta, L Most hydrometric stations and in Bazias section over the period March-April 2010

10800 10400 10000 9600 9200 8800 8400 8000 7600 7200 6800 6400 6000 5600 5200 4800 4400 4000 3600 3200 2800 2400 2000 1600 1200 800 400 0
5/11/2010 5/13/2010 5/15/2010 5/17/2010 5/19/2010 5/21/2010 5/23/2010 5/25/2010 5/27/2010 5/31/2010 5/1/2010 5/3/2010 5/5/2010 5/7/2010 5/9/2010

Discarge (mc/s)

Bazias

Budapesta

Dravaszabolcs

Senta

Mitrovica

Figure 5 Discharges recorded at Budapest, Dravaszabolcs, Mitrovica, Senta, L Most hydrometric stations and in Bazias section over the period 1-31May 2010

BALWOIS 2012 -Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia -28 May, 2 June 2012

4/29/2010

Data

d. Characteristics of the flood in June-July 2010 at the inlet into the country (Bazia section) and along Bazia upstream sector The flood occurred in June-July was caused by the meteorological and hydrological conditions of the previous months, which led to high discharge levels beginning with the end of February, as well as the significant liquid precipitation having affected wide areas in the upper and middle Danube basin (100230 mm) and in the Sava basin (100-200 mm), the mean rainfall nuclei being located in the upper basin (Figure 6). Elements of the flood over the period June- July 2010 Time of increase = 35 days; Time of decrease = 24 days; Duration = 59 days; Total volume in June = 31,26 billion m ;Total volume in July = 20,87 billion m ; Total volume June-July = 52,13 billion m ; Mean monthly discharge (Q ml) June = 12060 m /s; Mean monthly discharge (Q ml) July = 7792 m /s and Qml of the two months = 9926 m /s;
3 3 3 3 3 3

Figure 6 Precipitation cumulated in the Danube basin in July 2010 The flood on the Danube River produced in June-July 2010, had two crests, the maximum discharges 3 at the inlet into the country (Bazia section) being of 13200 m /s in the middle of June and of 13350 3 m /s at the beginning of July. The first crest (13200 m /s), dated 13 June, was caused by a flood wave on the Danube (Bogojevo upstream sector), in the context in which the Drava rivers discharge rose continuously beginning with 3 May, while the second crest (13350 m /s) occurred as a result of a significant discharge increase in the whole Sava and Morava rivers. The flood on the Danube river produced prior to the one on the Sava river and led to the remuu phenomenon on the Sava river; in this way, the maximum discharge at the inlet into the country was significantly influenced by the natural dam, thus created. Table 1 Comparison of the maximum discharges recorded at the hydrometric stations in 2006 and 2010, along Braila-Tulcea sector
3

Rivel

Hydrometric station

Maximum discarge (mc/s), 2006 14670

Maximum discarge (mc/s), 2010 14990

DANUBE

BRAILA

BALWOIS 2012 -Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia -28 May, 2 June 2012

DANUBE DANUBE DANUBE SIRET PRUT

GALATI ISACCEA TULCEA LUNGOCI OANCEA

14220 14325 5768 1180 495

16220 16240 6117 2600 697

8. Effects of the floods over the period June-July along Braila-Tucea sector
The flood on the Danube occurred before the one on the Sava River, where the remuu phenomenon occured, thus, the maximum flow at the inlet into the country was significantly influenced by the natural dam thus created. The high discharge values of the Danube at the inlet into the country, beginning with the second decade of June, determined the exceeding of the FLOOD LEVELS along the Romanian sector at all hydrometrical stations ( see Tabel 1). The significant increases of discharges on the Siret River (at Lungoci hydrometric station (Figure 7), 3 the maximum discharge was of 2600 m /s on 1 July 2010), as well as the long duration when high discharge levels were maintained, remuu phenomenon occurred downstream Lungoci, at endreni hydrometric station, led to the exceeding of the DANGER LEVELS along Brila-Galai sector at the beginning of July. The maximum flow recorded at Galai was reached by the composition of the flood wave on the Danube with the flood wave on the Siret.

Siret-Lungoci 3000

2500

2000

Discarge (mc/s)

1500

1000

500

0
20.06.2010 h1 h7 h13 h19 21.06.2010 h1 h7 h13 h19 22.06.2010 h1 h7 h13 h19 23.06.2010 h1 h7 h13 h19 24.06.2010 h1 h7 h13 h19 25.06.2010 h1 h7 h13 h19 26.06.2010 h1 h7 h13 h19 27.06.2010 h1 h7 h13 h19 28.06.2010 h1 h7 h13 h19 29.06.2010 h1 h7 h13 h19 30.06.2010 h1 h7 h13 h19 01.07.2010 h1 h7 h13 h19 02.07.2010 h1 h7 h13 h19 03.07.2010 h1 h7 h13 h19 04.07.2010 h1 h7 h13 h19 05.07.2010 h1 h7 h13 h19 06.07.2010 h1 h7 h13 h19 07.07.2010 h1 h7 h13 h19 08.07.2010 h1 h7 h13 h19 09.07.2010 h1 h7 h13 h19 10.07.2010 h1 h7 h13 h19 11.07.2010 h1 h7 h13 h19 12.07.2010 h1

Time (day.month.year. hour)

Figure 7 Flow hydrograph - Lungoci, June-July (the Siret River) 2010 Elements of the flood over the period 20 June -12 July 2010 at SiretLungoci hydrometric station Time of increase = 11 days; Time of decrease =11 days;

BALWOIS 2012 -Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia -28 May, 2 June 2012

Duration = 22 days; Maximum discharge on 1 July 2010 = 2600 m /s; Period = from 20 June to 12 July 2010 Wt= 3,14 billion m ; Mean monthly discharge (Q ml) = 1650 m /s;
3 3 3

The high levels and flows along all the sector downstream Porile de Fier, their continuous and extended rise at the beginning of June, their remaining above the FLOOD LEVELS, as well as the high values of discharges coming from Porile de Fier I and Porile de Fier II storage reservoirs, caused floods, overflowing, infiltrations and destroyed dams along several Danube sectors, more important being those downstream Calarasi, which produced significant damage. H max = 678 cm or (660+18) Cp, meaning that the DANGER LEVELS were exceeded with 18 cm, in 3 Galai county, on 5-6 July 2010, (Figure 8); Omax = 16220 m /s, being historical levels and discharges for June and July in comparison with the year 2006, when Hmax = 661 cm, Qmax =14220 3 m /s on 26 April 2006; Elements of the flood over the period June- July 2010 at Galati hydrometric station Time of increase = 36 days Time of decease = 23 days Duration = 59 days; Wt = 65,22 billion m ; Mean monthly discharge (Q ml) = 12791 m /s; Qmml June Galai = 8200 m /s and Qmml July Galai = 5500 m /s;
3 3 3 3

17000 16000 15000 14000 13000

Discarge (mc/s)

12000 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000

01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul

month

Figure 8 Discharge hydrograph hydrometric station Galati, June-July 2010

BALWOIS 2012 -Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia -28 May, 2 June 2012

10

Effects of high flood at Galati hydrometric station (Figure 9) and Braila hydrometric station (Figure 9, 10), in June-July 2010

Figure 9

Figure 10

Hmax=713 cm; on 6 July 2010, 53 cm above the DANGER LEVELS, (660+53) Brila county; Qmax = 14990 m3/s; historical levels and flows were reached in June-July, in comparison with the 3 year 2006 when H =699 cm and Qmax = 14670 m /s, on 26 April 2006; Elements of the flood over the period 1 - 31 June 2010 at Braila hydrometric station Time of increase = 36 days; Time of decrease = 20 days; Duration = 56 days; Wt= 55,06 billion m ; Mean monthly discharge (Q ml) = 11380 m /s and Q mml in June = 6450 m /s and 5500 m /s in July Characteristics of the floods on the Danube at Budapest hydrometric station in the years 2006 and 2010 In comparison with the high flood of 2006, occurred on the Danube (Figure 11), whose maximum flow 3 was of 15800 m /s, the discharges recorded at Budapest (Danube), Mitrovica (Sava) and L. Most (Morava) hydrometric stations were closed to the maximum ones recorded in that period, excepting for 3 Senta (Tisa) hydrometric station, where the recorded maximum discharge was of 1000 m /s lower than in 2006. The moment of occurrence was different. In 2006, this one is the same with the occurrence of maximum floods on the Danube and in 2010, it occurred later, over the period June-July, revealing the atypical character. The causes of floods are also different. In the case of 2006, this was due to the water coming from snow melting and the precipitation fallen in the basin. In 2010, the floods were due to the high discharge values recorded in the previous months and the heavy precipitation fallen in the upper and middle Danube basins.
9000 8000 70 0 0 6000

Discharge (mc/s)

50 0 0 4000 3000 2000 10 0 0 0

Figure 11 Discharge comparisons (2010 - 2006) at Budapest hydrometric station on the Danube River
BALWOIS 2012 -Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia -28 May, 2 June 2012

3/7/2 010 3/12/201 0 3/17/201 0 3/22/201 0 3/27/201 0 4/1/2 010 4/6/2 010 4/11/201 0 4/16/201 0 4/21/201 0 4/26/201 0 5/1/2 010 5/6/2 010 5/11/201 0 5/16/201 0 5/21/201 0 5/26/201 0 5/31/201 0 6/5/2 010 6/10/201 0 6/15/201 0 6/20/201 0 6/25/201 0 6/30/201 0 7/5/2 010 7/10/201 0 7/15/201 0 7/20/201 0 7/25/201 0 7/30/201 0
Budapesta_2010 Budapesta_2006

Data

11

9. Characteristics of the minor floods over the period August-October and November-December 2010, on the Danube River
Minor high floods, with discharge values exceeding 7000 m /s, were also recorded in August, September and October, without exceeding the DEFENCE LEVELS. Beginning with the second decade of November, the discharges at the inlet into the country recorded significant rises and continued in December as well. The high flood in December was the second of the value series, occurring once in 100 years, (see Figure 12). It had three peaks exceeding 10000 m /s, and were caused by the precipitation amounts fallen in the Sava and Morava basins, the Tisa River flows, the rainfalls in the Alps, in the Sava and Drava basins, 3 thus, at the inlet into the country, it had a volume of 40 billion m , for a mean monthly discharge of 3 7500 m /s. Along the sector downstream Porile de Fier, the ATTENTION LEVELS were exceeded, without negative effects.
3 3

11000 10500 10000 9500 9000 8500 8000 7500 7000

Bazias Budapesta Dravaszabolcs Mitrovita Senta L. Most Afl_rom

Discarge (mc/s)

6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

10. Analysis of mean monthly volumes and discharges at the inlet into the country ( Bazias section)
The total volume calculated for 2010 was of 241,7 billion m , compared to 2006, which was of 204.1 3 billion m . It can be noticed that the highest values occurred in 2010. The year 2006 is characterized
3

BALWOIS 2012 -Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia -28 May, 2 June 2012

11/1/2010 11/2/2010 11/3/2010 11/4/2010 11/5/2010 11/6/2010 11/7/2010 11/8/2010 11/9/2010 11/10/2010 11/11/2010 11/12/2010 11/13/2010 11/14/2010 11/15/2010 11/16/2010 11/17/2010 11/18/2010 11/19/2010 11/20/2010 11/21/2010 11/22/2010 11/23/2010 11/24/2010 11/25/2010 11/26/2010 11/27/2010 11/28/2010 11/29/2010 11/30/2010 12/1/2010 12/2/2010 12/3/2010 12/4/2010 12/5/2010 12/6/2010 12/7/2010 12/8/2010 12/9/2010 12/10/2010 12/11/2010 12/12/2010 12/13/2010 12/14/2010 12/15/2010 12/16/2010 12/17/2010 12/18/2010 12/19/2010 12/20/2010 12/21/2010 12/22/2010 12/23/2010 12/24/2010 12/25/2010 12/26/2010 12/27/2010 12/28/2010 12/29/2010 12/30/2010 12/31/2010

Data, months, year, day

Figure 12 Discharges recorded at Budapest, Dravaszabolcs, Mitrovica, Senta, L. Most hydrometric stations and in Bazia section, December 2010

12

by the flood occurred in the first six months, with a maximum discharge value recorded in April. In the 3 next months, till October, the value of 2850 m /s was reached (see Table 2). For the year 2010, the discharges were high over the whole year, reaching the maximum value in 3 June-July, at the inlet into the country (Bazia section), with values situating between 12070 m /s and 3 5370 m /s (October). These ones were the highest ever in this period and determined their atypical character. Comparisons were made between the discharge values and the mean monthly, annual and multiannual volumes, and the volume integral curve was drawn for the years 2006 and 2010 (Figures 13 -17). Table 2 Mean monthly discharges and volumes on the Danube, at the inlet into the country (Bazia section), comparison 2010 and 2006
Nr.crt.

Period

Qml (m /s) 2010

9150 5950 9250 7690 7670 12070 7800 6010 5480 5370 5610 9620

W billion 3 (m ) 2010
24,5 14.4 24,80 19,90 20,50 31,30 20,90 16,10 14,20 14,40 14,50 25,80

Qml 3 (m /s) 2006

6150 4480 9600 14105 10620 9580 5210 4480 4240 2850 3210 3150

W billion 3 (m ) 2006
16.50 10.80 25.70 36.60 28.40 24.80 14.00 12.00 11.00 7.60 8.30 8.40

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER

15000 14000 13000 12000 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII tim e (m onths) mean monthly flow 2010 mean annual monthly flow 2006 mean annual monthly flow 2010 mean monthly flow 2006

Figure 13 Mean monthly discharges at the inlet into the country (Bazia section), comparison 2010 and 2006 BALWOIS 2012 -Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia -28 May, 2 June 2012

discharge (mc/s)

13

15000 14000 13000 12000 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

discharge (mc/s)

II

III

IV

VI

VII

VIII

IX

XI

XII

tim e (m onths) discharge monthly 2006 discharge monthly 2010 mean multiannual monthly

Figure 14 Comparisons of mean monthly discharges between 2006 and 2010 (Danube Bazia section)

40 35

volume (billion mc)

30 25 20 15 10 5 0 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII

time (months)
volume monthly 2006 volume monthly 2010

Figure 15 Comparisons of mean monthly volumes bewteen 2006 and 2010 (Danube - inlet into the country - Bazia)

BALWOIS 2012 -Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia -28 May, 2 June 2012

14

15000 14000 13000 12000 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

discharge monthly 2006 discharge monthly 2010 means multiannual monthly Poly. (means multiannual monthly) Poly. (discharge monthly 2010) Poly. (discharge monthly 2006)

discarge (mc/s)

II

III

IV

VI

VII

VIII

IX

XI

XII

time (months)

Figure 16 Comparisons of mean monthly discharges between 2006 and 2010 (Danube Bazia section)
230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

volume (billion mc)

II

III

IV

VI

VII

VIII

IX

XI

XII

time (months)
the integral volume 2006 the integral volume 2010

Figure 17 Volume integral curves for the years 2006 and 2010

BALWOIS 2012 -Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia -28 May, 2 June 2012

15

11. Characterization of the floods occurred over the period 1970-2010

Significant floods on the Danube in the last 40 years, with a maximum discharge at the inlet into the 3 country (Bazia section) exceeding 12000 m /s, were recorded in 1970, 1981, 2005, 2006 and 2010. 3 The one recorded in 2010 had a discharge of 13330 m /s, and it is shown in Table 3 and Figures (18, 19). These maximum discharge values led to significant increase of water levels downstream Porile de Fier and caused material damage in the analyzed years. Table 3. Maximum discharges in 1970, 1981, 2005 and 2006
RIVER HYDROMETRIC STATION MAXIMUM DISCHARGE VALUES (M /S) 1970 Danube Bazias 13040 1981 14800 2005 12900 2006 15800
3

16000 14000

discharge (mc/s)

12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0

1967

1970

1975

1976

1977

1979

1980

1981

1987

1988

1999

2000

2001

2004

2006

years

Figure 18 Comparisons between the maximum and minimum discharge values over the period 19702010
16000 14000

discharge (mc/s)

12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000

2006 1981 1942 1940 2010 1970 1962 1988 1932 1941 1944 1965 1977 1937 1975 2000 1980 1947 1987 1976 1999 1958 1967 1979 1966 2004 1956 1931 1933 2001

years

Figure 19 Decreasing curve of the maximum discharge values Over the period 1932-2006

BALWOIS 2012 -Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia -28 May, 2 June 2012

2010

16

12. Conclusions
In the last years, along the Romanian Danube sector, two significant flood events occurred, such as the one in 2006, happening once in 100 years, with historical values and damaging effects and the one in 2010, with less severe consequences than the previous one, being the third in records in the last 40 years. Thus, for the year 2006, the historical flood occurred along Gruia -Hrsova sector, and for 2010, along Brila-Tulcea sector. The precipitation recorded both in the Danube basin and on the rivers, exceeded 2-3 times the monthly mean, over the period June-July, in 2010, when the flood on the Danube occurred. It could have been even more damaging than the one in 2006. The normal hydrological regime of the Danube recorded a spring flood over the interval April-May 2006, this one being correlated with the pluviometric regime and the snow melting. One can notice that the flood in 2010 occurred later than normally, in June-July. This flood had a pluvial character and exceeded the DEFENCE LEVELS downstream Porile de Fier, over a longer time interval, proving an atypical character. By comparing the floods of 2006 and 2010, at Budapest hydrometric station, the moment in which they occurred and the causes, one can notice that they were different, but the discharge values were quite similar, excepting for those values recorded in 2010, at Senta hydrometric station on the Tisa River, 3 where a 1000 m /s lower discharge was recorded. One can notice that over the interval March-April 2010, a period specific to spring floods and high waters, although there was snow cover and rainfalls were recorded in the basin, due to the temperature variations, the discharges were almost stationary and no negative effects produced downstream. From the calculation, it can be noticed that the volumes recorded in 2010 were larger than those in 2006, thus, in 2006, the flood occurred in the first six months of the year, while the year 2010 was atypical, being characterized by more significant floods at the beginning of the year, in June-July and November-December. From the graphs, in which the discharge variations against the mean multiannual values are shown, it results that the year 2006 was a normal one in its evolution. The discharge variation in 2010 was atypical, a fact also proved by the regression polynomial curves. From the volume integral curve, it can be noticed that for the years 2006 and 2010, the highest values for 2006 were recorded over the period May-June and for 2010 in October-December.

References
Gr.,Posea, Geografia fizic a Romniei Partea a II-Clima, Apele, Biogeografia, Solurile, Hazardele naturale, , Editura Fundaiei Romnia de Mine, pp.90-94,, (2004); P. Gtescu, Resursele de ap din Romnia potenial, calitate, distribuie teritorial, management, Resursele de Ap din Romnia (Vulnerabilitate la presiunile antropice Lucrrile primului simpozion naional, Editura Transversal Trgovite, 11-13 iunie 2010, pp. 16; I. Ujvari, Geografia apelor Romniei, Editura tiinific, Bucureti, (1972); *** Atlasul Cadastrului Rurilor din Romnia, Editat de Aquaproiect S.A. Bucureti, (1992); *** Caracterizarea fizico-geografic a bazinului hidrografic al fluviului Dunrea, Dunrea ntre Bazia i Ceatal Ismail Monografie hidrologic, Editura de Serviciul de documentare tiinific al al Institutului studii i cercetri hidrotehnice, Bucureti, pp.1, (1967); *** I. Viinescu, M. Burlada, Viiturile Dunrii capt conotaii catastrofale, Staitunea de Cercetare Dezvoltare Agricol Brila, Editura Revista Lumea Satului, Nr.20, 16-31 Octombrie 2010, sau copyright lumeasatului.ro, 2010; *** Prelucrarea datelor statistice i acelor din anii caracteristici 2006 i 2010 pe baza datelor INHGA i ANM; http://www.mediu.gov.md; http://www.mmediu.ro;

BALWOIS 2012 -Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia -28 May, 2 June 2012

17