Assumptions for Forecasting Model

Income Statement
Sales
Cost of Sales
Selling, General & Admn. Expenses
Depreciation
Other Net (Income)/Expenses
Interest Income
Interest Expense
Income Taxes
Balance Sheet
Assets
Cash and Marketable Securities
Accounts receivable
Inventories
Other Current Assets
Property, Plant, and Equipment, Gross
Accumulated Depreciation
Property, Plant and equipment, Net
Other Non-Current Assets
Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity
Accounts Payable
Short-Term Debt
Other Current Liabilities
Long-Term Debt
Deferred Income Taxes
Other Non-Current Liabilities
Paid-In Capital
Retained Earnings
Other Assumptions
Dividend policy
Interest on short-term debt
Interest on long-term debt
Interest on cash & marketable securities
Number of shares outstanding
P/E ratio

Stock price
Capital structure

Assumption
Will grow at 5%, based on input from management
50% of sales, specified by management
29% of sales, based on expected worsening
8% of Gross PP&E, based on analysis of depreciation schedules
-0.7% of sales, based on historical average
Calculate based on average balance and interest rate specified later
For STD calculate based on average balance and interest rate
For LTD $13.5 million on year-end 2002 balance. Add/ repay at marginal rate below
35% of pre-tax income

2.1% sales based on historical average

8.4% of sales, based on historical average
8.8% of sales, based on historical average
7.6% of sales, based on historical average
Will grow at 8% per year, specified by management
Calculated from other items
Calculated from other items
Will grow at 8% per year, specified by management

6.1% of sales, same as historical average

40% of debt, debt to total capitalization 30%
8.3% of sales, sme as 2002
60% of debt, debt to total capitalization 30%
1.4% of sales, based on historical average
7.6% of sales, based on historical average
Will remain unchanged
Adjusted to maintain debt to total capitalization of 30%

Payout target is 40%, but div./share cannot grow more than 10% in any year
7%, based on economic forecast
Marginal rate for repayments or issuances will be 9%
6%, based on economic forecast
Shares will be issued and bought back at average price for the eyar
Will decline to 16 in 2003 and then improve to 18, 20, and 22 in the following years

Year-end price based on P/E ratio and EPS for past year
Maintain 30% debt to total capitalization. Within debt 40% short-term.

Income Statement and Balance Sheet for Vitex Corp.

Income Statement ($ Million)
Forecast Period
2004
$1,471.2
$735.6
$735.6

2002
$1,334.4
$667.0
$667.4

2003
$1,401.1
$700.6
$700.6

Selling, General & Admn. Expenses

Depreciation
Other Net (Income)/Expenses
EBIT

$373.3
$75.2
($8.2)
$227.1

$406.3
$78.9
($9.8)
$225.2

$426.6
$85.2
($10.3)
$234.0

Interest (Income)
Interest Expense
Pre-tax Income

($2.0)
$23.7
$205.4

($1.7)
$20.1
$206.8

($1.8)
$19.4
$216.4

Income Taxes
Net Income

$72.6
$132.8

$72.4
$134.4

$75.7
$140.7

$40.1
$92.7

$43.1
$91.3

$46.0
$94.7

Assets
Cash and Marketable Securities
Accounts receivable
Inventories
Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets

$28.4
$120.1
$116.8
$97.5
$362.8

$29.4
$117.7
$123.3
$106.5
$376.9

$30.9
$123.6
$129.5
$111.8
$395.7

Property, Plant, and Equipment, Gross

Accumulated Depreciation
Property, Plant and equipment, Net

$913.1
$427.9
$485.2

$986.1
$506.8
$479.4

$1,065.0
$592.0
$473.0

Other Non-Curent Assets

Total Non-Current Assets

$456.3
$941.5

$492.8
$972.2

$532.2
$1,005.3

$1,304.3

$1,349.1

$1,401.0

Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity

Accounts Payable
Short-Term Debt
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities

$80.5
$110.3
$111.3
$302.1

$85.5
$122.5
$116.3
$324.3

$89.7
$126.8
$122.1
$338.7

Long-Term Debt
Deferred Income Taxes
Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Liabilities

$218.1
$12.7
$94.5
$627.4

$183.8
$19.6
$106.5
$634.2

$190.2
$20.6
$111.8
$661.3

Sales
Cost of Sales
Gross Operating Income

Dividends
Addition to Retained Earnings

Balance Sheet ($ Million)

Total Assets

Paid-In Capital
Retained Earnings
Total Shareholder's Equity
Total Liability and Shareholders' Equity

$44.8
$632.1
$676.9

$44.8
$670.0
$714.8

$44.8
$694.9
$739.7

$1,304.3

$1,349.1

$1,401.0

Stock Issuance/ (Buyback) (in dollars)

Stock Issuance/(Buyback) (in millions of shares)

Other Data
Stock Price (year-end)
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (millions)

$51.40
46.2

($53.4)
(1.1)

($69.8)
(1.3)

$47.67
45.1

$57.82
43.8

Financial Indicators
Valuation
EPS
Dividend per Share
P/E Ratio
P/B (price to book) Ratio
Dividend payout ratio

$2.87
$0.87
17.9
3.5
30%

$2.98
$0.95
16.0
3.0
32%

$3.21
$1.05
18.0
3.4
33%

Profitability ratios
Return on Equity (ROE)
Return on Sales (ROS)

21.2%
17.0%

19.3%
16.1%

19.3%
15.9%

Growth Rates
EPS Growth Rate
Dividend Growth Rate
Sales Growth Rate
EBIT Growth Rate
Net Income Growth Rate

1.4%
2.1%
2.6%
3.7%
0.1%

3.6%
10.0%
5.0%
-0.9%
1.2%

7.8%
10.0%
5.0%
3.9%
4.7%

Liquidity Ratios
Current
Quick

1.20
0.49

1.16
0.45

1.17
0.46

Operating Efficiency Ratios

Inventory Turnover
Receivable Turnover

5.7
11.1

5.7
11.9

5.7
11.9

32.7%
21.7%
48.5%

30.0%
18.0%
42.9%

30.0%
18.0%
42.9%

9.6
12.8

11.2
15.1

12.0
16.4

Leverage Ratios
Total Debt to Total Capitalization
Long-Term Debt to Total Capitalization
Total Debt to Equity
Coverage Ratios
Times Interest Earned (TIE)
Cash Coverage Ratio

Forecast Period

Forecasting
Factor
5.0%
50.0%

2005
$1,544.7
$772.4
$772.4

2006
$1,622.0
$811.0
$811.0

$448.0
$92.0
($10.8)
$243.2

$470.4
$99.4
($11.4)
$252.6

29.0%
8.0%
-0.7%

($1.9)
$20.3
$224.7

($2.0)
$21.3
$233.3

6.0%
7.0%
9.0%

$78.7
$146.1

$81.6
$151.6

35.0%

$49.3
$96.8

$53.1
$98.6

$32.4
$129.8
$135.9
$117.4
$415.5

$34.1
$136.2
$142.7
$123.3
$436.3

2.1%
8.4%
8.8%
7.6%

$1,150.2
$684.0
$466.2

$1,242.3
$783.4
$458.9

8.0%

$574.8
$1,041.0

$620.8
$1,079.7

8.0%

$1,456.6

$1,516.0

$94.2
$131.4
$128.2
$353.9

$98.9
$136.4
$134.6
$369.9

6.1%
12.0%
8.3%

$197.1
$21.6
$117.4
$690.0

$204.6
$22.7
$123.3
$720.5

18.0%
1.4%
7.6%

10%
40.0%

$44.8
$721.8
$766.6

$44.8
$750.7
$795.5

$1,456.6

$1,516.0

($69.9)
(1.1)

($69.6)
(0.9)

$68.45
42.7

$79.90
41.7

$3.42
$1.16
20.0
3.8
34%

$3.63
$1.27
22.0
4.2
35%

19.4%
15.7%

19.4%
15.6%

6.5%
10.0%
5.0%
3.9%
3.8%

6.1%
10.0%
5.0%
3.9%
3.8%

1.17
0.46

1.18
0.46

5.7
11.9

5.7
11.9

30.0%
18.0%
42.9%

30.0%
18.0%
42.9%

12.0
16.5

11.8
16.5

Statement of Cash Flows for Vitex Corp.

Millions of Dollars

Cash Flows from Operations

Net Income
Depreciation Expense
Decrease/(Increase) in Accounts Receivable
Decrease/(Increase) in Inventories
Decrease/(Increase) in Other Current Assets
Increase/(Decrease) in Accounts Payable
Increase/(Decrease) in Other Current Liabilities
Increase/(Decrease) in Deferred Income Taxes
Increase/(Decrease) in Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Cash Flows from Operations
Cash Flows from Investing
(Additions to) Property, Plant & Equipment
(Investment) in Other Non-Current Assets
Total Cash Flows from Investing
Cash Flows from Financing
From Issuance/(Repayment)of Short-Term Debt
From Issuance/(Repayment)of Long-Term Debt
From Sale/(Repurchase) of Equity
Cash Dividends Paid to Shareholders
Total Cash Flows from Financing
Net Change in Cash & Marketable Securities

Beginning Cash & Marketable Securities

Ending Cash & Marketable Securities
Net Change in Cash balance

Forecast Period
2004

2002

2003

$132.8
$75.2
($12.8)
($1.9)
$6.2
$8.7
($60.8)
($2.3)
($20.5)
$124.6

$134.4
$78.9
$2.4
($6.5)
($9.0)
$5.0
$5.0
$6.9
$12.0
$229.1

$140.7
$85.2
($5.9)
($6.2)
($5.3)
$4.3
$5.8
$1.0
$5.3
$224.9

($92.3)
($49.3)
($141.6)

($73.0)
($36.5)
($109.6)

($78.9)
($39.4)
($118.3)

$30.5
$16.3
$6.6
($40.1)
$13.3

$12.2
($34.3)
($53.4)
($43.1)
($118.5)

$4.3
$6.4
($69.8)
($46.0)
($105.1)

($3.7)

$1.0

$1.5

$32.1
$28.4
($3.7)

$28.4
$29.4
$1.0

$29.4
$30.9
$1.5

Forecast Period
2005

2006

$146.1
$92.0
($6.2)
($6.5)
($5.6)
$4.5
$6.1
$1.0
$5.6
$237.1

$151.6
$99.4
($6.5)
($6.8)
($5.9)
$4.7
$6.4
$1.1
$5.9
$249.9

($85.2)
($42.6)
($127.8)

($92.0)
($46.0)
($138.0)

$4.6
$6.9
($69.9)
($49.3)
($107.8)

$5.0
$7.4
($69.6) See note
($53.1)
($110.3)

$1.5

$1.6

$30.9
$32.4
$1.5

$32.4
$34.1
$1.6

Scenario Summary
Current Values:

Optimistic 2006
Created by Chandan
Sengupta on
7/26/2003

Changing Cells
Sales growth rate
5.0%
Cost of sales to sales ratio
50.0%
SG&A to sales ratio
29.0%
Gross PP&E growth rate
8.0%
Result Cells:
2003
Net income
$134.4
EPS
$2.98
Dividend per share
$0.95
Return on equity
19.3%
Times interest earned
11.2
2006
Net income
$151.6
EPS
$3.63
Dividend per share
$1.27
Return on equity
19.4%
Time interest earned
11.8
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.

7.0%
49.0%
28.0%
7.0%

$157.3
$3.52
$0.95
22.7%
13.0
$195.2
$4.84
$1.27
25.6%
15.5

Pessimistic 2006
Created by Chandan
Sengupta on
7/26/2003

3.0%
51.0%
30.0%
9.0%

$112.2
$2.46
$0.95
16.1%
9.5
$112.2
$2.58
$1.03
14.0%
8.7