ANALISIS ESTADISTICO DE MAXIMAS DESCARGAS

PROTECCION DE AREAS AGRICOLAS E INFRAESTRUCTURA MAYOR DE RIEGO SECTORES CANAL

ALTO, CANAL BAJO Y UREA, RIO SANTA - DISTRITO GUADALUPITO Y PROVINCIA DE VIRU
Nombre:
Informacion Basica
Tiempo de Retorno (TR) =
Medicion de Caudales (Ao) =

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Ao
1,932
1,933
1,934
1,935
1,936
1,937
1,938
1,939
1,940
1,941
1,942
1,943
1,944
1,945
1,946
1,947
1,948
1,949
1,950
1,951
1,952
1,953
1,954
1,955
1,956
1,957
1,958
1,959
1,960
1,961
1,962
1,963
1,964
1,965
1,966
1,967
1,968
1,969
1,970
1,971
1,972
1,973
1,974
1,975
1,976
1,977
1,978
1,979
1,980
1,981
1,982
1,983
1,984
1,985
1,986

Caudal (QX)
1,500.00
384.00
300.00
450.00
375.00
450.00
425.00
480.00
520.00
458.00
330.00
597.53
552.90
511.31
463.71
291.80
346.82
380.35
979.93
478.92
876.65
778.61
599.06
710.08
880.91
789.30
972.13
896.18
776.42
694.42
860.51
751.07
517.07
689.36
397.34
844.29
473.19
667.42
750.10
918.54
1,239.96
1,115.60
897.18
1,128.66
515.45
519.20
266.48
870.21
782.39
1,641.04
1,609.93
1,721.02
1,916.48
598.37
776.31

Estacion : Condorcerro

50.00
1,932
(QX - QP)2
553,569
138,367
207,916
93,622
145,144
93,622
109,546
76,164
55,685
88,791
181,457
25,106
41,241
59,862
85,420
215,461
167,410
141,096
50,155
76,761
14,562
512
24,623
2,107
15,608
1,110
46,722
19,657
418
3,789
10,927
24
57,077
4,438
128,621
7,799
79,969
7,842
35
26,427
234,239
129,328
19,938
138,892
57,854
56,064
239,608
13,049
698
783,335
729,235
931,307
1,346,766
24,840
413

(QX - QP)3
411,867,864
-51,469,579
-94,804,888
-28,646,344
-55,296,618
-28,646,344
-36,257,352
-21,019,474
-13,140,525
-26,457,644
-77,296,620
-3,977,934
-8,375,033
-14,646,362
-24,965,619
-100,012,144
-68,497,086
-52,999,617
11,232,250
-21,267,211
1,757,208
11,593
-3,863,808
-96,688
1,949,955
37,000
10,099,032
2,755,914
8,543
-233,263
1,142,226
-118
-13,636,103
-295,644
-46,128,328
688,754
-22,614,210
-694,510
-203
4,295,955
113,367,486
46,509,315
2,815,306
51,762,638
-13,915,382
-13,274,624
-117,287,543
1,490,621
18,426
693,300,588
622,731,568
898,750,383
1,562,924,679
-3,915,003
8,405

( Ln (QX)-QY)2

Ln (QX)
7.31
5.95
5.70
6.11
5.93
6.11
6.05
6.17
6.25
6.13
5.80
6.39
6.32
6.24
6.14
5.68
5.85
5.94
6.89
6.17
6.78
6.66
6.40
6.57
6.78
6.67
6.88
6.80
6.65
6.54
6.76
6.62
6.25
6.54
5.98
6.74
6.16
6.50
6.62
6.82
7.12
7.02
6.80
7.03
6.25
6.25
5.59
6.77
6.66
7.40
7.38
7.45
7.56
6.39
6.65

0.67
0.30
0.63
0.15
0.32
0.15
0.20
0.10
0.06
0.14
0.48
0.01
0.03
0.07
0.13
0.67
0.42
0.31
0.15
0.10
0.08
0.03
0.01
0.01
0.08
0.03
0.15
0.09
0.03
0.00
0.07
0.02
0.06
0.00
0.26
0.06
0.11
0.00
0.02
0.11
0.39
0.27
0.09
0.29
0.06
0.06
0.83
0.08
0.03
0.83
0.79
0.91
1.13
0.01
0.03

( Ln (QX)-QY)3
0.55
-0.16
-0.49
-0.06
-0.18
-0.06
-0.09
-0.03
-0.01
-0.05
-0.34
0.00
-0.01
-0.02
-0.04
-0.55
-0.27
-0.17
0.06
-0.03
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.01
0.06
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.00
-0.01
0.00
-0.13
0.01
-0.04
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.25
0.14
0.03
0.15
-0.02
-0.01
-0.75
0.02
0.00
0.75
0.70
0.87
1.20
0.00
0.00

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
73

1,987
1,988
1,989
1,990
1,991
1,992
1,993
1,994
1,995
1,996
1,997
1,998
1,999
2,000
2,001
2,002
2,003
2,004
Suma =

Media (QX)
QX
755.978
QY
6.494

1,093.77
1,674.72
82.33
522.14
382.23
860.42
600.00
448.70
338.07
730.22
482.16
1,653.26
1,230.71
888.99
1,349.25
1,015.25
699.34
418.61
55,186.37

114,104
844,087
453,801
54,680
139,687
10,908
24,329
94,420
174,647
663
74,976
805,116
225,371
17,692
351,972
67,222
3,208
113,817
11,334,927

38,543,340
775,498,885
-305,702,111
-12,786,257
-52,207,811
1,139,278
-3,794,786
-29,013,025
-72,986,247
-17,089
-20,529,786
722,415,980
106,990,797
2,353,291
208,815,281
17,428,841
-181,684
-38,398,158
4,813,362,625

PARAMETROS ESTADISTICOS
Desv. Estandar Coef. Asimetria
Coef. Variacion
SX
CS
Cv
396.774
1.100
0.525
SY
CSY
CvY
0.539
-0.535
0.083

7.00
7.42
4.41
6.26
5.95
6.76
6.40
6.11
5.82
6.59
6.18
7.41
7.12
6.79
7.21
6.92
6.55
6.04
474.093

0.25
0.86
4.34
0.06
0.30
0.07
0.01
0.15
0.45
0.01
0.10
0.84
0.39
0.09
0.51
0.18
0.00
0.21
20.893

0.13
0.80
-9.05
-0.01
-0.16
0.02
0.00
-0.06
-0.30
0.00
-0.03
0.77
0.24
0.03
0.36
0.08
0.00
-0.10
-5.858

DISTRIBUCION LOGNORMAL DE DOS PARAMETROS

TR (Aos)

Probabilidad

2
5
10
25
50
75
100
150
200
300
400
500
1000

0.5000
0.2000
0.1000
0.0400
0.0200
0.0133
0.0100
0.0067
0.0050
0.0033
0.0025
0.0020
0.0010

y = 451.272ln(x) + 282.112
LOGNORMAL
R = 0.997

2,500
2,300
2,100
1,900
Caudal (m3/s)

Parametros Estadisticos
Campo Normal
N = 73.00
QX = 755.98
SX = 396.77
CS = 1.10
Cv = 0.52
Campo Transformado
QY = 6.49
SY = 0.54
CSY = -0.54
CvY = 0.08
K = F(1-1/TR)
K = F 0.98
K = 2.05
QESP = Exp (QY + K SY)
QESP = 1,999.69
Iintervalo de Confianza
1,665.52
2,400.91

1,700
1,500
1,300
1,100
900
700
500
1

F(1-1/TR)
0.5000
0.8000
0.9000
0.9600
0.9800
0.9867
0.9900
0.9933
0.9950
0.9967
0.9975
0.9980
0.9990

10
Periodo de Retorno (Aos)

K=Z
0.0000
0.8416
1.2816
1.7507
2.0537
2.2164
2.3263
2.4747
2.5758
2.7131
2.8070
2.8782
3.0902

QESP
661.44
1,040.85
1,319.19
1,698.48
1,999.69
2,182.76
2,315.99
2,508.73
2,649.13
2,852.37
3,000.49
3,117.69
3,495.00

100

Intervalo de confianza
(-)
(+)
550.91
794.15
866.91
1,249.68
1,098.74
1,583.88
1,414.65
2,039.27
1,665.52
2,400.91
1,818.00
2,620.71
1,928.96
2,780.68
2,089.49
3,012.08
2,206.43
3,180.65
2,375.71
3,424.67
2,499.08
3,602.52
2,596.69
3,743.23
2,910.94
4,196.24

DISTRIBUCION DE GUMBEL O EXTREMA TIPO I

Parametros Estadisticos
y = 320.91ln(x) + 515.01
Campo Normal
R = 0.9991
2,500
N = 73.00
QX = 755.98
2,300
SX = 396.77
2,100
CS = 1.10
Cv = 0.52
1,900
Campo Transformado
1,700
QY = 6.49
SY = 0.54
1,500
CSY = -0.54
CvY = 0.08
1,300
K1 = TR/(TR -1)
1,100
K1 = 1.0204
Ln(Ln(K1)) = -3.90
900
KT = 2.59
700
QESP = QX + KT SX
QESP = 1,784.53
500
Iintervalo de Confianza
1
1,527.23
2,041.82
Caudal (m3/s)

METODO DE GUMBEL

TR (Aos)

Probabilidad

2
5
10
25
50
75
100
150
200
300
400
500
1000

0.5000
0.2000
0.1000
0.0400
0.0200
0.0133
0.0100
0.0067
0.0050
0.0033
0.0025
0.0020
0.0010

Ln Ln TR/(TR -1)
-0.3665
-1.4999
-2.2504
-3.1985
-3.9019
-4.3108
-4.6001
-5.0073
-5.2958
-5.7021
-5.9902
-6.2136
-6.9073

10
Periodo de Retorno (Aos)

KT

QESP
-0.16
0.72
1.30
2.04
2.59
2.91
3.14
3.45
3.68
4.00
4.22
4.39
4.94

690.80
1,041.44
1,273.59
1,566.92
1,784.53
1,911.01
2,000.53
2,126.48
2,215.74
2,341.43
2,430.56
2,499.67
2,714.26

100

Intervalo de confianza
(-)
(+)
620.69
760.91
923.37
1,159.51
1,114.12
1,433.07
1,351.90
1,781.94
1,527.23
2,041.82
1,628.91
2,193.11
1,700.80
2,300.26
1,801.87
2,451.10
1,873.44
2,558.04
1,974.17
2,708.70
2,045.57
2,815.56
2,100.91
2,898.43
2,272.68
3,155.84

DISTRIBUCION LOG - PEARSON III O GAMA DE TRES PARAMETROS

Parametros Estadisticos
Campo Normal
N = 73.00
CS = 1.10
Cv = 0.52
Campo Transformado
QY = 6.49
SY = 0.54
CSY = -0.54
K = F(1-1/TR)
K = F 0.9800

y = 93.347Ln(x) + 84.273
LOG-PEARSON III
R2 = 0.9965
2,500
2,300
2,100

Z = 2.05
Z2-1= 3.22
Z3-6Z= -3.66
CS/6 = -0.09
KT = 1.759
QESP = Exp(QY + KT SY)
QESP = 1,706.54
Iintervalo de Confianza
1,446.19
2,013.75
Factor de Frecuencia

Caudal (m3/s)

1,900
1,700
1,500
1,300
1,100
900
700
500
1

10
Pariodo de Retorno (Aos)

100

KT = Z + (Z2-1) (CS/ 6) + (1/3) (Z3 - 6Z) (CS/ 6)2 - (Z2-1) (CS/ 6)3 + Z (CS/ 6)4+ (1/3) (CS/ 6)5

TR (Aos)
2
5
10
25
50
75
100
150
200
300
400
500
1000

Probabilidad
0.5000
0.2000
0.1000
0.0400
0.0200
0.0133
0.0100
0.0067
0.0050
0.0033
0.0025
0.0020
0.0010

KT

Z
0.0000
0.8416
1.2816
1.7507
2.0537
2.2164
2.3263
2.4747
2.5758
2.7131
2.8070
2.8782
3.0902

0.0885
0.8557
1.2100
1.5545
1.7595
1.8640
1.9325
2.0223
2.0818
2.1602
2.2125
2.2513
2.3631

QESP
693.73
1,048.75
1,269.31
1,528.12
1,706.54
1,805.36
1,873.27
1,966.13
2,030.10
2,117.76
2,178.26
2,224.26
2,362.27

Intervalo de confianza
(-)
(+)
625.26
769.69
929.04
1,183.90
1,107.37
1,454.92
1,309.88
1,782.73
1,446.19
2,013.75
1,520.72
2,143.27
1,571.58
2,232.88
1,640.67
2,356.15
1,687.98
2,441.56
1,752.46
2,559.21
1,796.73
2,640.80
1,830.27
2,703.06
1,930.30
2,890.91

RESULTADOS CAUDAL DE DISEO

METODO

R2

Q(m3/s)
PR 25
1,698.485

PR 50
1,999.69

LOG NORMAL

0.9971

PR 10
1,319.193

GUMBEL

0.9991

1,273.593

1,566.921

1,784.53

LOG PEARSON

0.9890

1,269.306

1,528.124

1,706.54

MEJOR AJUSTE

0.9991
Q(m3/s) =

(*) .- R = Coeficiente de Correlacion

GUMBEL
1,273.59