Global Employment Trends For Youth (2013)

GLOBAL EMPLOYMENT
TRENDS FOR YOUTH 2013

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Global Employment Trends for Youth 2013
Incorporating the most recent labour market information available, Global
Employment Trends for Youth 2013 sets out the youth labour market situ-
ation around the world. It shows where progress has or has not been made,
updates world and regional youth labour market indicators and gives de-
tailed analyses of medium-term trends in youth population, labour force,
employment and unemployment.
This years report shows that the youth employment crisis continues in de-
veloped as well as developing economies. Little progress has been made
with the reduction of youth unemployment in the advanced economies
since the height of the economic crisis, while skills mismatch is on the
rise. In most developing regions, youth unemployment rates are projected
to remain at the same level or increase in the medium term. Drawing on
the results of the school-to-work transition surveys undertaken as part of
the Work4Youth partnership between the ILO and The MasterCard Founda-
tion, the report shows that developing regions face major youth employment
challenges relating to the quality of work.
The report offers valuable lessons learned from in-depth regional and gen-
der analysis as well as recommendations on youth employment policies.
Ideally, these will shape future developments, as countries continue to pri-
oritize youth in their national recovery policy agendas.
May 2013
A generation at risk

GLOBALEMPLOYMENTTRENDSFORYOUTH2013
Agenerationatrisk
Inteinational Laboui 0ffice, ueneva

ii

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ulobal Employment Tienus foi Youth 2u1S: A geneiation at iisk Inteinational Laboui 0ffice ueneva:
IL0, 2u1S

ISBN 97892212748S4 (piint)
ISBN 9789221274841 (web puf)

Inteinational Laboui 0ffice

Youth employment youth unemployment skills mismatch youth economic iecession uevelopeu
countiies ueveloping countiies

1S.u1.S

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Piinteu in Switzeilanu
iii

Contents

Acknowleugements ......................................................................................................................................... ix
1. Intiouuction ................................................................................................................................................ 1
1.1 Overview................................................................................................................................1
1.2 Organizationofthereport.....................................................................................................2
1.3 Mainfindings..........................................................................................................................3
1.3.1 Globaltrends(Chapter2)...................................................................................................3
1.3.2 Trendsinadvancedeconomies(Chapter2).......................................................................4
1.3.3 Trendsindevelopingregions(Chapter2)...........................................................................4
1.3.4 Theskillsmismatchchallenge(Chapter3).........................................................................5
1.3.5 Schooltoworktransitionsurveys(Chapters4and5).......................................................6
1.3.6 Policiestopromotedecentworkforyouth(Chapter6)....................................................6
2. ulobal youth employment ciisis woisening ................................................................................. 9
2.1 Youthlabourmarketsinadvancedeconomies....................................................................14
2.1.1 Qualityofyouthemployment..........................................................................................17
2.2 Youthlabourmarketsindevelopingregions.......................................................................18
2.2.1 SouthAsia.........................................................................................................................18
2.2.2 EastAsia............................................................................................................................19
2.2.3 SouthEastAsiaandthePacific.........................................................................................19
2.2.4 CentralandSouthEasternEurope(nonEU)andCIS.......................................................22
2.2.5 LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean.....................................................................................24
2.2.6 MiddleEast.......................................................................................................................25
2.2.7 NorthAfrica......................................................................................................................26
2.2.8 SubSaharanAfrica............................................................................................................27
S. Youth unemployment, employment anu skills mismatch in auvanceu economies ... 29
3.1 Skillsmismatchbetweenlaboursupplyanddemand..........................................................32
3.1.1 Skillsmismatchandunemployment.................................................................................33
3.2 Skillsmismatchbyoccupation.............................................................................................35
3.2.1 Incidenceandconsequencesofmismatch......................................................................35
3.2.2 Measurement...................................................................................................................36
3.2.3 Overeducationandundereducationinasampleofcountries........................................38
3.3 Explainingemploymentandskillsmismatch.......................................................................44
3.3.1 Theimpactofmacrofactorsonskillsmismatch..............................................................45
3.3.2 Theimpactofgender,age,immigrantbackgroundanddisabilityonmismatch............48
iv

3.3.3 Theimpactoffamilycharacteristicsonskillsmismatch..................................................48
3.3.4 Theimpactoflabourmarketexperienceonskillsmismatch..........................................48
4. Youth laboui maikets in ueveloping economies: Pieliminaiy eviuence fiom the IL0
schooltowoik tiansition suiveys.................................................................................................. 49
4.1 Introduction.........................................................................................................................49
4.2 Measuringandanalysingyouthlabourmarketsindevelopingeconomies........................50
4.2.1 Thedichotomyofyouthlabourmarketsindevelopedanddevelopingeconomies........51
4.2.2 Alternativeframeworkforportrayingyouthlabourmarketsindevelopingeconomies.53
4.3 Measuringjobquality..........................................................................................................57
4.3.1 Qualityofemploymentindicatorsandthedominanceoflowqualityemploymentin
developingeconomies..................................................................................................................57
4.3.2.Skillsmismatch....................................................................................................................60
4.3.3 Unravellingjobsatisfactionindevelopingeconomies.....................................................62
S. Laboui maiket tiansitions of youth in ueveloping economies .......................................... 6S
5.1 Introduction.........................................................................................................................65
5.2 Defininglabourmarkettransitions......................................................................................66
5.3 Stagesoftransitionindevelopingeconomies.....................................................................68
5.3.1 Acrosscountrycomparison.............................................................................................68
5.3.2 AdetailedtransitionanalysisforLiberia..........................................................................70
5.4 Labourmarketflowsanddurationsoftransition................................................................74
5.4.1 Labourmarketflows.........................................................................................................74
5.4.2 Durationoflabourmarkettransitions..............................................................................77
6 Policies foi youth employment ......................................................................................................... 81
6.1 Aglobalframeworktotackletheyouthemploymentcrisis................................................81
6.1.1 Stimulatedemandandcreatejobsforyouththroughproemploymentmacroeconomic
policies..........................................................................................................................................81
6.1.2 Investineducationandtrainingtoenhanceemployabilityandfacilitatetheschoolto
worktransition..............................................................................................................................83
6.1.3 Improvelabourmarketintegrationofyoungpeoplethroughtargetedlabourmarket
policies..........................................................................................................................................88
6.1.4 Providecareeroptionstoyoungpeoplebysupportingentrepreneurshipandself
employment..................................................................................................................................92
6.1.5 Ensurethatyoungpeoplereceiveequaltreatmentandareaffordedrightsatwork.....93
6.2 Conclusions..........................................................................................................................94
Bibliogiaphy ...................................................................................................................................................... 97
v

Boxes
Box 1. Youth employment: A u2u piioiity .............................................................................................. 7

Box 2. voluntaiy anu involuntaiy paittime youth employment in Inuonesia .................... 22
Box S. Neasuiing skills mismatch ............................................................................................................ S1
Box 4. Woik4Youth: An IL0 pioject in paitneiship with The NasteiCaiu Founuation ... Su
Box S. Woik4Youth tools anu methouological fiamewoik ........................................................... 6S
Box 6. Bow the LBES complements SWTS iesults anu stiengthens inteipietation ........... 7S
Box 7. Futuie ieseaich anu piouucts of the Woik4Youth pioject ............................................. 79
Box 8. Appioaches to boost aggiegate uemanu anu piomote youth employment ............. 82
Box 9. The Peiuvian action plan foi youth employment ................................................................ 8S
Box 1u. A skilleu woikfoice foi stiong, sustainable anu balanceu giowth ............................ 84
Box 11. The iole of employment seivices in facilitating youth laboui maiket tiansitions
........................................................................................................................................................................ 8S
Box 12. uaining woik expeiience thiough the uual appienticeship in selecteu Euiopean
countiies ..................................................................................................................................................... 86
Box 1S. IL0 tools foi anticipating skills neeus .................................................................................... 87
Box 14. Youth tiansitions to foimal employment thiough laboui maiket iefoims: The
case of Aigentina .................................................................................................................................... 88
Box 1S. Youth guaiantees: A iesponse to the youth employment ciisis. ............................... 89
Box 16. Youth employment piogiammes: Lessons fiom evaluation ........................................ 9u
Box 17. Lessons leaineu fiom successful youth entiepieneuiship piogiammes ............... 92
Box 18. Collective agieements on policies foi youth employment ............................................ 9S
Box 19. ulobal youth employment iepositoiies ................................................................................. 9S
Figures
Figuie 1. ulobal youth unemployment anu unemployment iate, 19912u1S ...................... 1u
Figuie 2. Youth unemployment iate estimates anu piojections (2uu82u18, %) .............. 11
Figuie S. ulobal anu iegional genuei gaps in youth unemployment iates, selecteu yeais
(female iate minus male iate, peicentage points) ................................................................... 1S
Figuie 4. Becomposition of changes in the employmenttopopulation iatio, 2uu72u12
........................................................................................................................................................................ 1S
Figuie S. Youth unemployment iates, 2uu8 anu 2u12 (seconu quaitei, %) ......................... 1S
Figuie 6. Shaie of youth unemployeu who have been unemployeu foi at least 6 months,
2uu8 anu 2u11 (%) ................................................................................................................................ 16
Figuie 7. Paittime employment iates in the Philippines anu Thailanu, by sex, 2uu8
2u12 (%) .................................................................................................................................................... 21
Figuie 8. Young woikeis in infoimal employment in the Russian Feueiation, by sex anu
age gioup, 2u12 (%) .............................................................................................................................. 24
Figuie 9. Economic context anu skills mismatch ............................................................................... Su
Figuie 1u. Skills mismatch anu youth unemployment iates in selecteu countiies, 2uuu
2u11, (%) ................................................................................................................................................... S4
vi

Figuie 11. Aveiage inciuence of skills mismatch (all age gioups, %) ....................................... 41
Figuie 12. Aveiage inciuence of skills mismatch (age gioup 1S29, %) ................................. 42
Figuie 1S. Aveiage inciuence of skills mismatch by sex anu age gioup (%) ......................... 4S
Figuie 14. Bistiibution of youth population by iegulai anu iiiegulai employment,
unemployment (ielaxeu uefinition) anu inactivity foi foui leastuevelopeu
countiies (LBCs) anu foui highincome countiies (%) ......................................................... S2
Figuie 1S. Compaiing the tiauitional anu alteinative fiamewoik of laboui maiket status
in Aimenia anu Togo ............................................................................................................................. SS
Figuie 16. Expanueu inuicatois measuiing quality of woik (%) ............................................... S8
Figuie 17. Bistiibution of youth population by stage of tiansition (%) .................................. 68
Figuie 18. Shaie of tiansiteu youth in total youth population, by sex (%) ............................ 7u
Figuie 19. Libeiia: Stages of tiansition (categoiies of tiansiteu anu in tiansition) by
householu income level, euucational attainment anu geogiaphic aiea (%) ................ 71
Figuie 2u. Flows to stable anuoi satisfactoiy employment (tiansiteu categoiy) ............ 7S
Figuie 21. Buiation of tiansition to stable anuoi satisfactoiy employment ...................... 78
Tables

Table 1. Inciuence of oveieuucation in Euiopean countiies (%) ............................................... S6
Table 2. Inciuence of unueieuucation in Euiopean countiies (%) ............................................ S6
Table S. ISC0 majoi gioups anu skill levels ......................................................................................... S7
Table 4. Inciuence of oveieuucation by age gioup (%) .................................................................. S9
Table S. Inciuence of unueieuucation by age gioup (%) ............................................................... S9
Table 6. Countiylevel tienus in youth (ageu 1S29) mismatch inciuence ............................ 44
Table 7. Selecteu oveieuucation mouel iesults foi youth ............................................................. 46
Table 8. Selecteu unueieuucation mouel iesults foi youth .......................................................... 47
Table 9. Employment by chaiacteiistics of euucation (shaie in total employment, %) .. 61
Table 1u. Shaies of oveieuucateu anu unueieuucateu young woikeis in FYR Naceuonia
anu Togo by ISC088 majoi occupational gioup (%) ............................................................. 62
Table 11. }ob satisfaction iates by level of euucational attainment, uibaniuial
iesiuence, householu wealth, iegulaiiiiegulaiinfoimal employment anu
oveiqualification anu unueiqualification (%) ........................................................................... 64
Table 12. Inuicatois on path of tiansition foi tiansiteu youth in Aimenia anu Cambouia,
by sex ........................................................................................................................................................... 76
Table 1S. Aveiage uuiation in tiansition foi youth in the in tiansition categoiy ........... 79
Annexes
Annex A. Woilu anu iegional tables ..................................................................................................... 1uS

Annex B. 0ECB countiy tables ................................................................................................................ 1u9
Annex C. Skills mismatch tables ............................................................................................................. 121
Annex B. Selecteu tables fiom the SWTS, ten countiies .............................................................. 1S2
vii

Annex E. Note on global anu iegional piojections ......................................................................... 142
Annex F. Skills mismatch ........................................................................................................................... 147
Annex u. ulobal Employment Tienus Regional gioupings ..................................................... 1Su
AnnexTables
Table A1. ulobal unemployment anu unemployment iates, youth (1S24), auult (2S+)
anu total (1S+), 2uu72u1S ............................................................................................................ 1uS
Table A2. Youth unemployment iates 2uu82u18, by iegion anu sex (%) ........................ 1u4
Table AS. Change in youth unemployment anu unemployment iates between 1998 anu
2uu8 anu between 2uu8 anu 2u12, by iegion ........................................................................ 1uS
Table A4. Youth laboui foice paiticipation iates 2uu82u18, by iegion anu sex (%) .. 1u6
Table AS. ulobal anu iegional youth employmenttopopulation iatios, 2uu82u18 (%)
..................................................................................................................................................................... 1u7
Table A6. ulobal anu iegional iatios of youth to auult unemployment iates, 2uu82u18
(%) ............................................................................................................................................................. 1u8
Table B1. Youth unemployment iates, seconu quaitei, 2uuu2u12 % ................................ 1u9
Table B2. Shaie of unemployeu youth who aie unemployeu foi at least 6 months, both
sexes, 2uuu2u11 (%) ....................................................................................................................... 11S
Table BS. NEET iates in 0ECB economies, age gioup 1S29, 2uuu2u1u (%) ................ 11S
Table B4. Inciuence of paittime woik, youth, 2uuu2u11 (%) .............................................. 117
Table BS. Inciuence of tempoiaiy employment, youth, 2uuu2u11 (%) ............................ 119

Table C1. Skills mismatch between laboui supply anu uemanu, youth, 2uuu2u11 (%)
..................................................................................................................................................................... 121
Table C2a. 0nemployment iate of youth with piimaiy euucation, both sexes, 2uuu2u11
(%) ............................................................................................................................................................. 12S
Table CS. Countiylevel tienus in youth: skills mismatch inciuence anu maciolevel
vaiiables, age gioup 1S29 ............................................................................................................. 126
Table C4. Summaiy of oveieuucation mouel iesults .................................................................... 128
Table CS. Summaiy of unueieuucation mouel iesults ................................................................. 1Su

Table B1. Souice infoimation ................................................................................................................. 1S2
Table B2. Youth laboui maiket inuicatois, ten SWTS countiies, both sexes, age gioup
1S29, 2u12 (%) .................................................................................................................................. 1SS
Table BS. Youth laboui maiket inuicatois, ten SWTS countiies, males, age gioup 1S29,
2u12 (%) ................................................................................................................................................. 1S4
Table B4. Youth laboui maiket inuicatois, ten SWTS countiies, females, age gioup 1S
29, 2u12 (%) .......................................................................................................................................... 1SS
Table BS. Inuicatois on quality of employment, ten SWTS countiies, both sexes, age
gioup 1S29, 2u12 (%) ..................................................................................................................... 1S6
viii

Table B6. Stages of laboui maiket tiansition, ten SWTS countiies, both sexes, age gioup
1S29,2u12 (% shaie in total youth population) .................................................................. 1S7
Table B7. Stages of laboui maiket tiansition, ten SWTS countiies, males, age gioup 1S
29, 2u12 (% shaie in total youth population) ........................................................................ 1S8
Table B8. Stages of laboui maiket tiansition, ten SWTS countiies, females, age gioup
1S29, 2u12 (% shaie in total youth population) ................................................................. 1S9
Table B9. Flows to completeu laboui maiket tiansition, nine SWTS countiies, both
sexes, age gioup 1S29, 2u12 (% shaie in total tiansiteu youth) ................................. 14u
Table B1u. Inuicatois on the path of tiansition foi youth who have completeu theii
laboui maiket tiansition, nine SWTS countiies, both sexes, age gioup 1S29, 2u12
..................................................................................................................................................................... 141

ix

Acknowledgements

The Global Employment Trends for Youth 2013 iepoit was cooiuinateu by Theo
Spaiieboom fiom the Employment Tienus Team, heaueu by Ekkehaiu Einst. Alexanuei
Taiviu (IL0 consultant) pioviueu substantive inputs foi Chaptei S. Saia Eluei anu
uianni Rosas fiom the Woik4Youth Pioject of the Youth Employment Piogiamme
piepaieu Chapteis 4 anu S anu Chaptei 6, iespectively. Auuitional inputs weie pioviueu
by Natthieu Cognac, Phu Buynh, Steven Kapsos, Kee Beom Kim, Bonna Koeltz, 0lga
Koulaeva, Rebecka Rask, Boiothea Schmiut, 0lga StiietskaIlina, }ulia Suiina, Shei
veiick anu Chiistina Wiesei.

The piouuction of the iepoit was supeiviseu by Noazam Nahmoou, Biiectoi of the
Economic anu Laboui Naiket Analysis Bepaitment, anu }os Nanuel SalazaiXiiinachs,
Assistant Biiectoiueneial foi Policy. The team wishes to acknowleuge the helpful
comments anu suggestions on the uiaft pioviueu by vaiious IL0 iegional anu countiy
offices incluuing Biego Rei anu Cynthia Samuel0lonjuwon fiom the Regional 0ffice foi
Afiica; uuilleimo Bema fiom the Regional 0ffice foi Latin Ameiica anu the Caiibbean;
}ames Bowaiu, Biiectoi ueneials 0ffice; Chiistine EvansKlock, Biiectoi of the Skills
anu Employability Bepaitment anu Lauia Biewei fiom the same uepaitment; Azita
BeiaiAwau, Biiectoi of the Employment Policy Bepaitment; anu two anonymous peei
ievieweis.

Specific mention shoulu be maue of Evangelia Bouimpoula, who piepaieu the global
anu iegional estimates on the basis of the ulobal Employment Tienus econometiic
mouels anu pioviueu helpful ieseaich assistance. Leman Yonca uuibuzei anu Yves
Peiaiuel, within the Youth Employment Piogiamme, tabulateu the uata fiom the
schooltowoik tiansitions suiveys shown in Chapteis 4 anu S. The publication woulu
not have been possible without the contiibutions of othei membeis of the IL0s
Employment Tienus Team Philippe Blet, Anne Biougaiu anu Alan Wittiup.

The analysis pioviueu in the Global Employment Trends seiies is only as goou as the
available input uata. We take this oppoitunity to thank all institutions involveu in the
collection anu uissemination of laboui maiket infoimation, incluuing national statistical
agencies, the IL0 Bepaitment of Statistics anu the Euiopean Social Suivey pioject. We
encouiage auuitional collection anu uissemination of countiylevel uata in oiuei to
impiove the analysis of employment tienus pioviueu in futuie upuates of this iepoit.

We woulu like to expiess oui thanks to colleagues in the IL0 Bepaitment of
Communication anu Public Infoimation foi theii continueu collaboiation anu suppoit in
biinging the ulobal Employment Tienus to the meuias attention woiluwiue. Chailotte
Beauchamp cooiuinateu the euiting anu publication piocesses.

Finally, the IL0 woulu like to acknowleuge the suppoit given by The NasteiCaiu
Founuation on this euition of the Global Employment Trends for Youth, unuei the scope
of the Woik4Youth paitneiship.

1

1. Introduction
1.1 Overview

Itisnoteasytobeyounginthelabourmarkettoday.

The weakening of the global iecoveiy in 2u12 anu 2u1S has fuithei aggiavateu the
youth jobs ciisis anu the queues foi available jobs have become longei anu longei foi
some unfoitunate young jobseekeis. So long, in fact, that many youth aie giving up on
the job seaich. The piolongeu jobs ciisis also foices the cuiient geneiation of youth to
be less selective about the type of job they aie piepaieu to accept, a tenuency that was
alieauy eviuent befoie the ciisis. Incieasing numbeis of youth aie now tuining to
available paittime jobs oi finu themselves stuck in tempoiaiy employment. Secuie
jobs, which weie once the noim foi pievious geneiations at least in the auvanceu
economies have become less easily accessible foi touays youth.

The global youth unemployment iate, estimateu at 12.6 pei cent in 2u1S, is close to its
ciisis peak. 7S million young people aie estimateu to be unemployeu in 2u1S.
1
At the
same time, infoimal employment among young people iemains peivasive anu
tiansitions to uecent woik aie slow anu uifficult.

The economic anu social costs of unemployment, longteim unemployment,
uiscouiagement anu wiuespieau lowquality jobs foi young people continue to iise anu
unueimine economies giowth potential.

Skillsmismatchisaddingtotheyouthemploymentcrisis.

Skills mismatch on youth laboui maikets has become a peisistent anu giowing tienu.
0veieuucation anu oveiskilling coexist with unueieuucation anu unueiskilling, anu
incieasingly with skills obsolescence biought about by longteim unemployment.

Such a mismatch makes solutions to the youth employment ciisis moie uifficult to finu
anu moie time consuming to implement. Noieovei, to the extent that young people in
employment aie actually oveiqualifieu foi the job they aie uoing, society is losing theii
valuable skills anu foifeiting stiongei piouuctivity giowth that woulu have been
achieveu hau these young people been employeu at theii appiopiiate level of
qualification.
Indevelopingregionswhere90percentoftheglobalyouthpopulationlives,stable,
qualityemploymentisespeciallylacking.

Beveloping iegions face majoi challenges iegaiuing the quality of available woik foi
young people. This iepoit confiims that in ueveloping economies wheie laboui maiket
institutions, incluuing social piotection, aie weak, laige numbeis of young people
continue to face a futuie of iiiegulai employment anu infoimality. Young woikeis often
ieceive below aveiage wages anu aie engageu in woik foi which they aie eithei
oveiqualifieu oi unueiqualifieu. As much as twothiius of the young population is

1
0nless otheiwise specifieu, figuies in this chaptei iefei to youth ageu 1S24.
2

unueiutilizeu in some ueveloping economies, meaning they aie unemployeu, in
iiiegulai employment, most likely in the infoimal sectoi, oi neithei in the laboui foice
noi in euucation oi tiaining.

Inadvancedeconomieslongtermunemploymenthasarrivedasanunexpectedtax
onthecurrentgenerationofyouth.

Youth unemployment anu its scaiiing effects aie paiticulaily pievalent in thiee iegions:
Bevelopeu Economies anu Euiopean 0nion, the Niuule East anu Noith Afiica. In these
iegions youth unemployment iates have continueu to soai since 2uu8. Youth
unemployment incieaseu by as much as 24.9 pei cent in the Bevelopeu Economies anu
Euiopean 0nion between 2uu8 anu 2u12, anu the youth unemployment iate was at a
uecaueslong high of 18.1 pei cent in 2u12. 0n cuiient piojections, the youth
unemployment iate in the Bevelopeu Economies anu Euiopean 0nion will not uiop
below 17 pei cent befoie 2u16.

As was uiscusseu in the 2u1u euition of GlobalEmploymentTrendsforYouth,theie is a
piice to be paiu foi enteiing the laboui maiket uuiing haiu economic times. Nuch has
been leaineu about scaiiing in teims of futuie eaining powei anu laboui maiket
tiansition paths (IL0, 2u1ua). Peihaps the most impoitant scaiiing is in teims of the
cuiient youth geneiations uistiust in the socioeconomic anu political systems. Some of
this uistiust has been expiesseu in political piotests such as antiausteiity movements
in uieece anu Spain.

Creativeandwiderangingpolicysolutionsareneeded.

Impioving youth laboui maiket outcomes iequiies an inuepth unueistanuing of
employment anu laboui maiket issues that aie countiy specific. Analysis of youth
laboui maikets, with paiticulai emphasis on the issues that chaiacteiize youth
tiansitions to uecent woik, is ciucial foi ueteimining countiyspecific neeus anu foi
shaping policies anu piogiammatic inteiventions.

A global movement fiameu by the IL0s Call foi Action (as outlineu in Chaptei 6) is
iequiieu to bieak the vicious ciicle that keeps so many millions of youth out of
euucation anu stuck in nonpiouuctive employment anu poveity.

1.2 Organizationofthereport

This issue of Global Employment Trends for Youth pioviues an upuate on youth laboui
maikets aiounu the woilu, focusing both on the continuing laboui maiket ciisis anu on
stiuctuial issues in youth laboui maikets.
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Chaptei 2 sets the stage with an oveiview of youth laboui maikets at the global anu
iegional levels. Chaptei S focuses on the skills mismatch in auvanceu economies. The
chaptei examines iecent tienus anu iuentifies gioups that aie moie vulneiable to
mismatch, which incluue youth in geneial anu young women in paiticulai. Chaptei 4

2
Pievious euitions of the GlobalEmploymentTrendsforYouth (2uu4, 2uu6, 2uu8, 2u1u, 2u11 anu 2u12)
aie available fiom the IL0s website at www.ilo.oigtienus.
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tuins attention to the situation facing youth in ueveloping iegions wheie laboui is
abunuant, capital is scaice anu a staik uuality exists between the shiinking but still
uominant tiauitional economy anu the mouein economy. The chaptei pioposes a
mouel foi gieatei uisaggiegation of tiauitional inuicatois, using uata fiom the iesults of
the schooltowoik tiansition suiveys unueitaken as pait of the Woik4Youth
paitneiship between the Inteinational Laboui 0ffice anu The NasteiCaiu Founuation.

Chaptei S continues the examination of youth laboui maikets in ueveloping economies,
using the newly available miciouata, but focusing on the topic of laboui maiket
tiansitions. New uata on paths anu uuiation of tiansition offei a unique insight into how
young people tiansition fiom the enu of schooling (oi fiist entiy into economic activity)
to a stable job in the laboui maiket oi alteinatively, iemain stuck in less piouuctive anu
less beneficial categoiies of economic activity such as unemployment oi selfuefineu
nonsatisfactoiy selfemployment. Chaptei 6 closes with an oveiview of policy options,
which builu on the finuings in this iepoit as well as iecent iecommenuations maue by
the IL0 in vaiious inteinational meetings.

1.3 Mainfindings

This is a uense iepoit, packeu with uata anu infoimation. The following summaiy aims
at assisting ieaueis to giasp the main finuings anu upuates in youth laboui maiket
tienus.

1.3.1 Globaltrends(Chapter2)

The global youth unemployment iate, which hau uecieaseu fiom 12.7 pei cent in 2uu9
to 12.S pei cent in 2u11, incieaseu again to 12.4 pei cent in 2u12, anu has continueu to
giow to 12.6 pei cent in 2u1S. This is 1.1 peicentage points above the pieciisis level in
2uu7 (11.S pei cent).

By 2u18 the global youth unemployment iate is piojecteu to iise to 12.8 pei cent, with
giowing iegional uispaiities, as expecteu impiovements in auvanceu economies will be
offset by incieases in youth unemployment in othei iegions, mainly in Asia.

ulobal youth unemployment is estimateu to stanu at 7S.4 million in 2u1S, an inciease of
S.S million since 2uu7 anu u.8 million above the level in 2u11. Rising youth
unemployment anu falling laboui foice paiticipation contiibuteu to a ueciease in the
global youth employmenttopopulation iatio to 42.S pei cent in 2u1S, compaieu with
44.8 pei cent in 2uu7. Pait of this ueciease is uue to iising eniolment in euucation. The
global youth employmenttopopulation iatio is piojecteu to be 41.4 pei cent in 2u18.

ulobally, the iatio of youth to auult unemployment iates haiuly changeu in iecent yeais,
anu stanus at 2.7 in 2u1S. Young people theiefoie continue to be almost thiee times
moie likely than auults to be unemployeu, anu the upwaiu tienu in global
unemployment continues to hit them stiongly.

The global employmenttopopulation iatio ueclineu by 1 peicentage point between
2uu7 anu 2u12. This was uue to falling laboui foice paiticipation anu iising
unemployment, while changes in the uemogiaphic stiuctuie helpeu to iaise the
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employmenttopopulation iatio. The contiibution of youth unemployment to the
uecline in the employmenttopopulation iatio was paiticulaily pionounceu in the
Bevelopeu Economies anu Euiopean 0nion anu in East Asia.

1.3.2 Trendsinadvancedeconomies(Chapter2)

Since 2uu9, little piogiess has been maue in ieuucing youth unemployment in the
Bevelopeu Economies anu Euiopean 0nion as a whole. The youth unemployment iate in
2u12 is estimateu at 18.1 pei cent, the same iate as in 2u1u anu the highest level in this
iegion in the past two uecaues. If the S.1 pei cent uiscouiagement iate is taken into
account, the uiscouiagementaujusteu youth unemployment iate becomes 21.2 pei
cent. The youth unemployment iate is piojecteu to iemain above 17 pei cent until 2u1S,
anu ueciease to 1S.9 pei cent by 2u18.

Between 2uu8 anu 2u12, the numbei of unemployeu young people incieaseu by moie
than 2 million in auvanceu economies, giowing by almost 2S pei cent. In the seconu
quaitei of 2u12 the youth unemployment iate exceeueu 1S pei cent in two thiius of
auvanceu countiies. Bowevei, theie aie significant vaiiations acioss countiies anu
some countiies aie showing positive iesults. The youth unemployment iate was below
1u pei cent in six countiies in the Bevelopeu Economies anu the Euiopean 0nion in the
seconu quaitei of 2u12, anu in thiee countiies, youth unemployment iates aie cuiiently
below the level in the same quaitei of 2uu8 (ueimany, Isiael anu Switzeilanu).

Fiom 2uu8 to 2u1u, the piopoition of young people not in employment, euucation oi
tiaining in the youth population, the NEET iate, incieaseu by 2.1 peicentage points to
ieach 1S.8 pei cent as an aveiage of 0ECB countiies. This means one in six young
people weie without a job anu not in euucation oi tiaining.

The youth unemployment ciisis in auvanceu economies is also ieflecteu in longei job
seaich peiious anu lowei job quality. In the majoiity of 0ECB countiies, onethiiu oi
moie of young jobseekeis aie unemployeu foi at least 6 months.

In Euiope, an incieasing piopoition of employeu youth aie involveu in nonstanuaiu
jobs, incluuing tempoiaiy employment anu paittime woik, anu eviuence shows that a
significant pait of the inciease is involuntaiy iathei than by choice. Youth paittime
employment as a shaie of total youth employment in Euiope was 2S.u pei cent in 2u11.
Anothei 4u.S pei cent of employeu youth in the iegion woikeu on tempoiaiy contiacts.

1.3.3 Trendsindevelopingregions(Chapter2)

Regional youth unemployment iates show laige vaiiations. In 2u12, youth
unemployment iates weie highest in the Niuule East anu Noith Afiica, at 28.S pei cent
anu 2S.7 pei cent, iespectively, anu lowest in East Asia (9.S pei cent) anu South Asia
(9.S pei cent). Between 2u11 anu 2u12, iegional youth unemployment iates incieaseu
in all iegions except in Cential anu SouthEastein Euiope (nonE0) anu Commonwealth
of Inuepenuent States (CIS), Latin Ameiica anu the Caiibbean, anu SouthEast Asia anu
the Pacific. Encouiaging tienus of youth unemployment aie obseiveu in, foi example,
Azeibaijan, Inuonesia anu the Philippines.

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Fiom 2u12 to 2u18, the youth employmenttopopulation iatio is piojecteu to ueciease
in all iegions except in the Bevelopeu Economies anu Euiopean 0nion. The laigest
ueciease is piojecteu in the Asian iegions, ianging fiom 1.1 peicentage points in South
Asia to 2.S peicentage points in East Asia.

In countiies anu iegions with high poveity levels anu high shaies of vulneiable
employment, the youth employment challenge is as much a pioblem of pooi
employment quality as one of unemployment. Foi instance, South Asia anu SubSahaian
Afiica piesent ielatively low iegional youth unemployment iates, but this is linkeu to
high levels of poveity, which means that woiking is a necessity foi many young people.
In Inuia, theie is eviuence that youth unemployment iates aie highei foi families with
incomes ovei the 0S$1.2S poveity iate than foi those with incomes unuei this poveity
line.

The NEET iate foi young people is high in some ueveloping iegions wheie figuies aie
available. Foi instance, in Latin Ameiica anu the Caiibbean this iate was estimateu at
19.8 pei cent in 2uu8.

1.3.4 Theskillsmismatchchallenge(Chapter3)

This iepoit examines two types of skills mismatch, using levels of euucational
attainment as a pioxy foi skills. The fiist type consists of mismatch between the supply
anu uemanu of skills, anu is baseu on a compaiison of the euucational attainments of
the employeu anu the unemployeu. The seconu type conceins mismatch between the
skills that young people possess anu those iequiieu by theii jobs.

In auvanceu economies, the eviuence shows theie is a highei iisk of mismatch foi those
at the bottom of the euucational pyiamiu, which is ieflecteu in ielatively high
unemployment iates foi the lowskilleu in compaiison with the highskilleu. This type
of mismatch incieaseu fiom 2u1u to 2u11, signalling a ueteiioiation of the laboui
maiket position of lowskilleu youth.

With iespect to the seconu type of mismatch, the eviuence fiom auvanceu economies
shows that young people (ageu 1S29) aie fai moie exposeu to oveieuucation than
woikeis ageu Su anu above, anu aie also less likely to be unueieuucateu. 0veieuucation
of youth in auvanceu economies incieaseu by 1.S peicentage points in the peiiou 2uu2
to 2u1u, ieflecting in pait incieases in euucational attainment. Bowevei, the stiong
inciease in oveieuucation in the past two yeais (by 1.4 peicentage points) suggests
anothei consequence of the economic ciisis: youth with highei levels of euucation aie
incieasingly taking up jobs that they aie oveiqualifieu to uo. The giowing phenomenon
of oveieuucation theiefoie implies a ciowuing out of youth at the bottom of the
euucational pyiamiu. The lesseuucateu youth finu themselves at the back of the queue
even foi those jobs foi which they aie best qualifieu. Apait fiom youth, laboui maiket
gioups that often face an elevateu mismatch iisk incluue women, the uisableu anu
migiants.

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1.3.5 Schooltoworktransitionsurveys(Chapters4and5)

Laboui maikets foi young people in ueveloping economies aie veiy uiffeient fiom those
in uevelopeu economies. The iiiegulai natuie of employment among youth anu the
tenuency foi youth to leave euucation eaily in ueveloping economies aie the laboui
maiket chaiacteiistics that contiast most uiiectly with those of youth in uevelopeu
economies. Compaieu with auvanceu economies, these countiies face the auuitional
challenges of unueiemployment anu woiking poveity, with young people making up the
bulk of the woikeis in the infoimal economy in both iuial anu uiban aieas.

Youth unemployment is a seiious issue in lowincome economies. When using a ielaxeu
uefinition of unemployment (wheie active job seaich is not a ciiteiion foi inclusion),
the unemployment iate uoubles in many lowincome economies. In fact, when this
uefinition is applieu, the aveiage ielaxeu unemployeu iate in leastuevelopeu
economies often comes out even highei than that of the highincome economies.
Noieovei, the unemployeu young people in lowincome economies uo not benefit fiom
the social piotection systems that aie available to theii counteipaits in uevelopeu
economies.

Lowquality employment uominates in the ten ueveloping economies examineu in
Chaptei 4. Looking at aveiages acioss the ten countiies, as many as eight out of ten
young woikeis aie in infoimal employment, six out of ten lack a stable employment
contiact anu onethiiu aie unueiqualifieu foi the woik that they uo, with consequences
foi both the piouuctivity of the enteipiise anu the secuiity of the woikeis themselves.
The high levels of unueiutilization of young laboui in ueveloping economies aie a
hinuiance to uevelopment. As many as 6u pei cent of young peisons in ueveloping
iegions aie eithei without woik, not stuuying oi engageu in iiiegulai employment. In
othei woius, neaily twothiius of youth in ueveloping economies aie not achieving theii
full economic potential.

New uata piesenteu in Chaptei S pioviue a unique poitiait of how young people move
fiom the enu of schooling (oi entiy to fiist economic activity) to a stable job oi
alteinatively, iemain stuck in categoiies of economic activity maikeu by infoimality,
unceitainty anu woiking poveity. In the ten ueveloping countiies analyseu, young
males aie moie likely than young females to complete the tiansition to stable anuoi
satisfactoiy employment. Bouseholu wealth, gieatei investment in euucation anu uiban
oiigins aie also seen to offei auvantages in the laboui maiket tiansition of youth.
Shopping aiounu among laboui maiket expeiiences is not the noim in ueveloping
economies. When few laboui maiket oppoitunities exist, young people tenu to stick
with the job that they have, iegaiuless of its quality.

1.3.6 Policiestopromotedecentworkforyouth(Chapter6)

Five key policy aieas that can be auapteu to national anu local ciicumstances weie
iuentifieu by the iepiesentatives of goveinments, employeis anu woikeis of the 18S
IL0 Nembei States at the Inteinational Laboui Confeience (ILC) in }une 2u12 anu aie
7

incluueu in the Resolution The youth employment ciisis: A call foi action.
S
The policy
aieas incluue: i) employment anu economic policies to inciease aggiegate uemanu anu
impiove access to finance; ii) euucation anu tiaining to ease the schooltowoik
tiansition anu to pievent laboui maiket mismatches; iii) laboui maiket policies to
taiget employment of uisauvantageu youth; iv) entiepieneuiship anu selfemployment
to assist potential young entiepieneuis; anu v) laboui iights that aie baseu on
inteinational laboui stanuaius to ensuie that young people ieceive equal tieatment.
These main policy aieas anu examples of goou piactices with uetails on specific
inteiventions aie uiscusseu in Chaptei 6 in view of the analysis in this iepoit anu the
uiscussions in meetings such as the u2u Summits (see box 1).

Box1.Youthemployment:AG20priority
The alaiming situation of young people in the laboui maikets of most u2u countiies has been
the subject of the uiscussion anu uelibeiations of the u2u Summits. At the Lonuon Summit on
uiowth, Stability anu }obs (Apiil 2uu9), the Leaueis auopteu a ulobal Plan foi Recoveiy anu
Refoim anu committeu to suppoit those affecteu by the ciisis by cieating employment
oppoitunities. They also calleu upon the IL0 to woik with othei ielevant oiganizations anu to
assess the actions taken anu those iequiieu foi the futuie. This was followeu by the
Pittsbuigh Summit wheie Leaueis committeu to put quality jobs at the heait of the iecoveiy
piocess, ueciueu to convene the fiist Neeting of Laboui anu Employment Ninisteis, anu
iequesteu the IL0 to piepaie the u2u Tiaining Stiategy (see box 1u).

The seconu Neeting of Laboui anu Employment Ninisteis (Paiis, Septembei 2u11) uiscusseu
the main youth employment challenges in u2u countiies anu highlighteu the iole of policies to
inciease both quantity anu quality of jobs foi young people (0ECB anu IL0, 2u11). The
Ninisteis policy iecommenuations weie enuoiseu by the Leaueis in Cannes (Novembei
2u11). These ievolveu aiounu impioving active employment policies paiticulaily foi young
people anu othei vulneiable gioups establishing social piotection floois, piomoting
inteinational laboui stanuaius anu stiengthening the coheience of economic anu social
policies. The Summit also establisheu an Employment Task Foice, with an immeuiate piioiity
foi 2u12 of youth employment.

The Employment Task Foice was conveneu unuei the Nexican Piesiuency with a iequest foi
suppoit fiom the IL0 anu othei paitneis in ieviewing youth employment policies anu
piogiammes, paiticulaily appienticeships anu othei measuies to ease the schooltowoik
tiansition. The main conclusions of the Employment Task Foice on the stiategies foi youth
employment in u2u countiies weie enuoiseu by the Ninisteis of Laboui anu Employment
(uuaualajaia, Nay 2u12) anu by the Leaueis Summit (Los Cabos, }une 2u12). Conclusions
incluue (i) stiengthening quality appienticeship systems anu othei schooltowoik tiansition
piogiammes in collaboiation with the social paitneis; (ii) pioviuing caieei guiuance anu
facilitating acquisition of woikexpeiience with a view to piomoting uecent woik; (iii)

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The full text of the 2u12 Resolution The youth employment ciisis: A call foi action can be founu on
the IL0 website at http:www.ilo.oigilcILCSessions1u1stSessiontexts
auopteuWCNS_18S9Sulangeninuex.htm.
8

suppoiting the piovision of youth entiepieneuiship measuies; (iv) exploiing voluntaiy
technical coopeiation piogiammes, bilateially oi togethei with inteinational oiganizations, as
a means to shaie best piactices in auuiessing youth employment; (v) iequesting the IL0,
0ECB anu othei inteinational oiganizations to woik with national institutions in oiuei to
bettei unueistanu the situation of young people in u2u countiies anu implement national
youth employment initiatives with the suppoit of the social paitneis. The Leaueis extenueu
the manuate of the Employment Task Foice foi anothei yeai unuei the Russian Piesiuency.

The social paitneis have actively contiibuteu to the u2u piioiity on youth employment. The
Business oiganizations (B2u) anu the Tiaue 0nion oiganizations (L2u) of the u2u countiies
uigeu the Leaueis to auuiess the employment situation in geneial anu of young people in
paiticulai in oiuei to pievent the iisk of a giowing shaie of the population losing faith in the
global economy. They also uiew the attention of the Leaueis in Cannes to the key elements
that coulu make nationallyuefineu social piotection floois ielevant in all countiies, the neeu of
implementing funuamental piinciples anu iights at woik, anu the impoitance of piomoting
coheience of actions in the multilateial system.

Young peoples conceins about the lack of uecent jobs foi them anu theii peeis weie voiceu by
iepiesentatives of young people selecteu by each countiy of the u2u. In Nay 2u12 the
iepiesentatives of young people met at the Y2u Summit (Puebla, Nexico) anu uevelopeu a set
of conclusions to call the attention of u2u leaueis to global piioiities (incluuing global stability
anu financial inclusion, inteinational tiaue, sustainable uevelopment anu gieen giowth, foou
secuiity anu the futuie of the u2u). A specific set of conclusions ievolveu aiounu the cieation
of quality jobs foi young people.

Souice: Baseu on infoimation posteu on IL0s u2u website, www.ilo.oigg2u.

9

2. Globalyouthemploymentcrisisworsening

Since the unpieceuenteu inciease in youth unemployment between 2uu8 anu 2uu9, the
global youth unemployment iate has iemaineu at veiy high levels. Fiom 2uu9 to 2u11
the youth unemployment iate uecieaseu fiom 12.7 pei cent to 12.S pei cent. It
incieaseu again to 12.4 pei cent in 2u12 anu has continueu to giow to 12.6 pei cent in
2u1S. This is 1.1 peicentage points above the 2uu7 level of 11.S pei cent. ulobal youth
unemployment is estimateu to be 7S.4 million in 2u1S, which is an inciease of S.S
million since 2uu7 anu u.8 million above the 2u11 level (figuie 1 anu table A1).
4,S

Piojections foi 2u14 show a fuithei inciease to 12.7 pei cent anu the giauual
acceleiation of economic giowth in the meuiumteim is not expecteu to iesult in an
impiovement of job piospects foi youth at the global level. By 2u18, the global youth
unemployment iate is piojecteu to stanu at 12.8 pei cent (figuie 2 anu table A2).
Regional uispaiities aie, howevei, likely to inciease, as some impiovement in youth
unemployment iates in auvanceu economies in the meuium teim will be offset by the
inciease in unemployment iates in othei iegions.
6

uenuei uiffeientials in youth unemployment iates aie small at the global level anu in
most iegions. Regional youth unemployment iates aie lowei foi young women in the
auvanceu economies anu East Asia (figuie S anu table A2). Bowevei, laige gaps
between female anu male iates aie eviuent in some iegions such as Noith Afiica anu the
Niuule East anu, to a lessei extent, Latin Ameiica anu the Caiibbean.
7

In compaiison to auults, youth continue to face a uisauvantageous laboui maiket
situation. ulobally, the iatio of youth to auult unemployment iates has haiuly changeu
in iecent yeais, anu stanus at 2.7 in 2u1S (tables A1 anu A6). Youth theiefoie continue
to be almost thiee times moie likely than auults to be unemployeu, anu the upwaiu
tienu in global unemployment continues to hit them stiongly.

The auveise laboui maiket conuitions foi youth aie also eviuent in global employment
iates. The global employmenttopopulation iatio the shaie of the woiking age
population that is employeu ueclineu by 1 peicentage point between 2uu7 anu 2u12.
This was uue to falling laboui foice paiticipation anu iising unemployment, while
changes in the uemogiaphic stiuctuie causeu an inciease in the employmentto
population iatio (figuie 4).

Bisaggiegation by age gioup shows that iising youth unemployment anu falling youth
paiticipation account foi u.S peicentage points of the oveiall uecline,
8
compaieu with a
contiibution of u.8 peicentage points fiom these two factois foi auults, uespite the fact

4
All tables aie being iefeienceu in the annex.
S
As shown in figuie 1, the highest global youth unemployment iate occuiieu in 2uu2, which was the
iesult of the ielatively high youth unemployment iate in seveial iegions at that time, incluuing Latin
Ameiica anu the Caiibbean, South East Asia anu the Pacific anu Noith Afiica.
6
The auvanceu economies incluue the Euiopean 0nion anu othei uevelopeu economies; Annex u lists
iegional gioupings anu countiies.
7
See also Global Employment Trends for Women (IL0, 2u12b) foi a uiscussion of genuei uiffeientials in
iecent laboui maiket tienus.
8
Pait of the uecline in youth paiticipation is uue to iising eniolment in euucation.
1u

that youth accounteu foi less than 2u pei cent of the global laboui foice befoie the
ciisis. In othei woius, the contiibution of youth laboui maiket outcomes was
uispiopoitionate to the ielative size of the youth population (IL0, 2u1Sa).

At the global level, the youthemploymenttopopulation iatio uecieaseu fiom 44.2 pei
cent in 2uu8 to 42.S pei cent in 2u1S (table AS). At the iegional level, the contiibution
of youth unemployment to the uecline in the employmenttopopulation iatio was
paiticulaily pionounceu in the uevelopeu economies as well as in East Asia (figuie 4).

Fiom 2u12 to 2u18, global anu iegional youth employmenttopopulation iatios aie
piojecteu to ueciease in all iegions except in the Bevelopeu Economies & Euiopean
0nion. The laigest uecieases aie piojecteu in the Asian iegions, ianging fiom 1.1
peicentage points in South Asia to 2.S peicentage points in East Asia (table AS).

Afterabriefrecovery,globalyouthunemploymentcontinuestorise.
Figure1.Globalyouthunemploymentandunemploymentrate,19912013

Note: p = piojection
Souice: IL0, Tienus Econometiic Nouels, Apiil 2u1S.

11

Inmostregions,theyouthunemploymentrateisonanupwardtrend.
Figure2.Youthunemploymentrateestimatesandprojections(20082018,%)
Woilu

Bevelopeu Economies anu Euiopean 0nion Cential anu SouthEastein Euiope (nonE0) anu
CIS
East Asia

South Asia

12

SouthEast Asia anu the Pacific

Latin Ameiica anu the Caiibbean

Niuule East Noith Afiica
SubSahaian Afiica

Note: 2u12* = pieliminaiy estimate; p = piojection.
The chaits uepict the evolution of global anu iegional unemployment iates between 2uu8 anu 2u12 as
well as unemployment iate piojections foi 2u1S to 2u18. Piojections aie piesenteu in the foim of a fan
chait, inuicating the piobability of vaiious outcomes foi the unemployment iates. Each shaue of the fans
coiiesponus to onethiiu of the confiuence inteival aiounu the cential piojection (see Annex E foi
methouological infoimation).

1S

GendergapsinyouthunemploymentratesareexceptionallylargeintheMiddle
EastandNorthAfrica.
Figure3.Globalandregionalgendergapsinyouthunemploymentrates,selectedyears
(femalerateminusmalerate,percentagepoints)

Youthsufferdisproportionallyfrominadequateemploymentgrowth.
Figure4.Decompositionofchangesintheemploymenttopopulationratio,20072012

Souice: IL0 calculations baseu on Tienus Econometiic Nouels, Apiil 2u1S.

14

2.1 Youthlabourmarketsinadvancedeconomies
Since 2uu9, little piogiess has been maue in ieuucing youth unemployment in the
auvanceu economies. The youth unemployment iate in 2u12 is estimateu at 18.1 pei
cent, which is the same iate as in 2u1u anu iepiesents the highest level in auvanceu
economies in the past two uecaues. 0n cuiient piojections, the youth unemployment
iate in the auvanceu economies will not uiop below 17 pei cent befoie 2u16 (figuie 2).

Between 2uu8 anu 2u12, the numbei of unemployeu young people incieaseu by moie
than two million, which is the equivalent of almost 2S pei cent giowth (table AS). By the
seconu quaitei of 2u12, the youth unemployment iate exceeueu 1S pei cent in two
thiius of auvanceu economies, anu in uieece anu Spain youth unemployeu accounteu
foi moie than half of the economically active youth population (figuie S). Accoiuing to
0ECB uata, the youth unemployment iate in 2u12 iecoiueu the highest quaiteily iate in
the past ten yeais in at least ten countiies, anu the same is tiue foi the Euio aiea as a
whole. Bowevei, theie is also vaiiation in countiy expeiiences. The youth
unemployment iate was below 1u pei cent in 6 countiies in the Bevelopeu economies
anu the Euiopean 0nion in the seconu quaitei of 2u12 (Austiia, ueimany, }apan, the
Netheilanus, Noiway, anu Switzeilanu), anu in thiee countiies the youth
unemployment iate was below the level in the same quaitei of 2uu8 (ueimany, Isiael,
anu Switzeilanu) (table B1).

The massive inciease in youth unemployment is ieflecteu in the uuiation of
unemployment. In the 0ECB countiies, on aveiage moie than onethiiu of unemployeu
youth hau been unemployeu foi at least six months in 2u11, up fiom aiounu one
quaitei in 2uu8. In ten countiies at least half of the unemployeu youth have been
looking foi a job foi moie than six months (figuie 6). The shaie of the unemployeu
youth who hau been unemployeu foi at least six months incieaseu fiom the seconu
quaitei in 2uu8 to the seconu quaitei in 2u12 in 19 countiies, while it uecieaseu in 12
countiies (table B2).

Bigh anu incieasing unemployment iates coupleu with longei peiious of job seaich
have iesulteu in many young people giving up the seaich altogethei anu becoming
uiscouiageu (see, foi example, Bell anu Blanchflowei, 2u11). Aujustment of the
unemployment iate to incluue uiscouiageu woikeis woulu auu an estimateu S.1
peicentage points to the youth unemployment iate in the auvanceu economies in 2u12,
iaising the iate to 21.2 pei cent. The aujusteu numbei of unemployeuuiscouiageu
youth woulu iise to 1S.u million, compaieu with 1u.7 million youth who weie actually
unemployeu in 2u12.

Anothei sign of uiscouiagement in the laboui maiket is the giowth in the numbei of
young people neithei in employment noi in euucation oi tiaining, the NEET gioup.
Because this gioup is not impioving theii futuie employability thiough investment in
skills, anu aie also not gaining expeiience thiough employment, NEETs aie paiticulaily
at iisk of both laboui maiket anu social exclusion. In auuition, the NEET gioup is
alieauy in a uisauvantageu position uue to lowei levels of euucation anu lowei
householu incomes (EFILWC, 2u11). Between 2uuu anu 2uu8, the aveiage NEET iate
(the piopoition of the NEET gioup as a peicentage of the youth population ageu 1S29)
uecieaseu by 1.4 peicentage points in 0ECB countiies (table BS). Bowevei, fiom 2uu8
1S

to 2u1u the iate incieaseu by 2.1 peicentage points to ieach 1S.8 pei cent. In othei
woius, aiounu one in six young peisons aie without a job anu not in euucation oi
tiaining. In the Euiopean countiies these tienus aie moie pionounceu both befoie anu
aftei the peak of the economic ciisis. In Estonia, Icelanu, Iielanu anu Spain the NEET
iate incieaseu by moie than S peicentage points between 2uu8 anu 2u1u.

Youthunemploymentrateexceeds15percentintwothirdsofadvancedeconomies.
Figure5.Youthunemploymentrates,2008and2012(secondquarter,%)
Souice: 0ECB online uatabase.

16

Morethanonethirdofunemployedyouthhavebeenunemployedforatleast6
months.
Figure6.Shareofyouthunemployedwhohavebeenunemployedforatleast6months,
2008and2011(%)


The longteim consequences of peisistently high youth unemployment aie wellknown
anu likely to become moie seiious the longei the youth unemployment ciisis continues.
valuable woik expeiience is not acquiieu anu piofessional skills may eioue.
0nemployment expeiiences eaily in a young peisons caieei aie likely to iesult in wage
scais that continue to uepiess theii employment anu eainings piospects even uecaues
latei. A stuuy by Kahn (2u1u) estimateu that a 1 peicentage point inciease in
unemployment in the 0niteu States iesults in a 6 to 7 pei cent ueciease in the wages of
college giauuates. In auuition, although the cost in teims of foiegone wages uecieases
ovei time, it still iemains significant 1S yeais latei. Bell anu Blanchflowei (2u11)
showeu that unemployment in a peisons eaily twenties negatively affects employment
anu eainings piospects, as well as health anu job satisfaction, up to two uecaues latei.
Eaily unemployment expeiiences also iaise the iisk of futuie unemployment anuoi a
piotiacteu peiiou of unstable employment (Aiumlamplam, uiegg anu uiegoiy, 2uu1).
Such consequences may iesult fiom a ueteiioiation of skills, but it may also be causeu
by piospective employeis negative peiceptions of youth who have been out of woik foi
piolongeu peiious. Noieovei, these effects aie believeu to be moie seveie foi youth
enteiing the woikfoice with an euucation level below the teitiaiy level who aie alieauy
in a ielatively uisauvantageu position compaieu with theii bettei euucateu peeis (see
Chaptei S). Apait fiom its uetiimental effects on futuie wages anu employability, youth
unemployment may impact negatively happiness, job satisfaction anu health foi many
yeais (Noisy, 2u12).
17

2.1.1 Qualityofyouthemployment

Youth aie incieasingly employeu in nonstanuaiu jobs, incluuing tempoiaiy
employment anu paittime woik. Nonstanuaiu woik may be beneficial to woikeis if
such woik ieflects piefeiences to combine woik with othei activities incluuing stuuy oi
caie woik. Bemanu foi nonstanuaiu woik can be inuuceu by the neeu of fiims to
iegulate the size of theii woikfoices in accoiuance with the business cycle oi to ueal
with peaks in uemanu uuiing the weekenus oi aftei iegulai woiking houis. Paittime
woik can also seive as a stepping stone to a fulltime position. Similaily, tempoiaiy
employment may be a piefeiieu option when planning futuie activities.

Paittime employment iates vaiy wiuely acioss economies, ieflecting female laboui
foice paiticipation iates, institutional factois such as the availability anu extent of chilu
benefits anu views of social paitneis (see, foi example, Buuuelmeyei, Nouiie, anu
Waiu, 2uu8; 0ECB, 2u1u). Bowevei, the giowth of tempoiaiy anu paittime woik, in
paiticulai since the height of the global economic ciisis, also suggests that such woik
often is the only option available to young woikeis (IL0, 2u12a). Foi many companies,
nonstanuaiu contiacts aie an attiactive option given the heighteneu unceitainties
unuei which they have been opeiating in iecent yeais (IL0, 2u1Sa).

Foi the 0ECB as a whole, the inciuence of pait time woik foi youth incieaseu fiom 2u.8
pei cent in 2uuu to 29.S pei cent in 2u11. In the Euiopean membei states of the 0ECB,
youth paittime employment as a shaie of total youth employment giew fiom 18 pei
cent in 2uuu to 22.S pei cent in 2uu8, but it jumpeu to 2S pei cent in 2u11 (a giowth of
almost 1 peicentage point pei yeai) (table B4). In Noith Ameiica paittime woik as a
shaie of youth employment incieaseu fiom 28.4 pei cent in 2uuu to S1.2 pei cent in
2uu7. Buiing the ciisis, it incieaseu fuithei to S4.S pei cent in 2uu9. Contiaiy to the
Euiopean countiies, the inciuence of paittime woik uecieaseu in 2u1u anu 2u11. In
2u11, S2.u pei cent of Noith Ameiican youth woikeu paittime.

Similaily, the pace of inciease in tempoiaiy woik as a shaie of total youth employment
in Euiope acceleiateu fiom u.S peicentage points annually uuiing 2uuuu8 to u.6
peicentage points between 2uu8 anu 2u11 (table BS). In Noith Ameiica, youth
tempoiaiy woik uecieaseu between 2uuu anu 2uu8, but has slightly incieaseu since
2uu8. In 2u11, 4u.S pei cent of Euiopean youth woikeu on tempoiaiy contiacts,
compaieu with 14.S pei cent of Noith Ameiican youth.

18

2.2 Youthlabourmarketsindevelopingregions

Beveloping iegions face majoi youth employment challenges, but also show laige
vaiiations in the extent anu uevelopment of youth unemployment. In 2u12, youth
unemployment was highest in the Niuule East anu Noith Afiica, at 28.S pei cent anu
2S.7 pei cent, iespectively, anu lowest in East Asia (9.S pei cent) anu South Asia (9.S pei
cent, see table A2). Such uiffeiences aie uue to a vaiiety of ieasons, incluuing economic
conuitions anu institutional factois. Chaptei 4 offeis a moie inuepth view of the
peculiaiities of youth laboui maikets in a selection of ueveloping economies.

2.2.1 SouthAsia

The youth unemployment iate in South Asia uecieaseu in 2u11 by u.4 peicentage points
to ieach 9.2 pei cent, but incieaseu to 9.S pei cent in 2u12. Piojections suggest a
continuing upwaiu tienu in South Asia in the coming yeais foi both young men anu
young women (figuie 2 anu table A2). The youth employmenttopopulation iatio is
expecteu to continue its uownwaiu tienu, fiom S7.2 pei cent in 2u12 to S6.1 pei cent in
2u18. In 2uu8, the youth employmenttopopulation iatio stoou at 4u.S pei cent in
South Asia (table AS).

0ne in ten economically active youth in South Asia aie unemployeu, as employment is
often taken up uue to the necessity to make a living, even among the young. South Asia
has one of the highest iegional woiking poveity iates, anu almost one in foui woikeis
aie counteu among the woiking pooi, while woiking poveity iates aie often highei foi
youth. In Inuia, foi example, which iepiesents thieequaiteis of South Asias population,
the woiking poveity iate in 2u1u was SS.7 pei cent foi youth at the 0S$1.2S poveity
level, compaieu with 28.S pei cent foi auults. Aggiegate youth unemployment iates
tenu to iise if family incomes inciease. In Inuia, the unemployment iate foi pooi youth
in 2u1u was 9.7 pei cent, compaieu with 1u.S pei cent foi youth living in families with
an income pei capita above the 0S$1.2S poveity line. This is the iesult of laige
uiffeientials in youth unemployment iates foi females (12.9 pei cent foi nonpooi
young women veisus S.1 pei cent foi pooi young women). The uiffeience is fai less foi
young males, anu the unemployment iate foi pooi young men (1u.u pei cent) is actually
slightly highei than foi nonpooi young men (9.7 pei cent).
9

0nemployment iates in South Asia also tenu to iise by level of euucational attainment,
which is ielateu, in pait, to family income. In Sii Lanka, the highest unemployment iate
is founu among those with at least a highei seconuaiy euucation: S.S pei cent foi men
anu 11.7 pei cent foi women in the seconu quaitei of 2u12. In compaiison, the
unemployment iate foi Sii Lankans who uiu not complete theii lowei seconuaiy
euucation is just 1.7 pei cent foi men anu S.S pei cent foi women (Sii Lanka
Bepaitment of Census anu Statistics, 2u12). A similai pattein pievails in Inuia, wheie
unemployment iates inciease iapiuly foi highly skilleu woikeis, paiticulaily women. At
the same time, Inuian employeis have tiouble hiiing staff: accoiuing to the 2u11
Nanpowei Talent Shoitage Suivey, 67 pei cent of Inuian employeis stateu that they hau

9
IL0 calculation baseu on the 2u1u Inuia National Sample Suivey.
19

uifficulties filling positions.
1u
Skills mismatch theiefoie appeais to be paiticulaily
seiious in South Asia anu may well contiibute to youth unemployment.

2.2.2 EastAsia

Youth unemployment iates have been at a highei level in East Asia since the economic
ciisis in 2uu8 anu 2uu9. In 2uu7, the iegional youth unemployment iate was 7.9 pei
cent, but since 2uu8 the iate has been close to oi above 9.u pei cent. The inciease in
iecent yeais has been moie maikeu foi young men (up fiom 1u.4 pei cent in 2u1u to
11.2 pei cent in 2u12) than foi young women (up fiom 7.2 pei cent in 2u1u to 7.6 in
2u12). Piojections suggest an upwaiu tienu in youth unemployment in East Asia, with
the iegional iate ieaching 1u.u pei cent in 2u14 (figuie 2 anu table A2).

The highei level of youth unemployment iates in compaiison with the pieciisis peiiou,
as well as the moie iecent iise, can be illustiateu by monthly inuicatois. In Taiwan,
China, foi example, the youth unemployment iate was 1S.u pei cent in }uly 2u12,
compaieu with 12.9 pei cent in }uly 2u11. This is lowei than the high of 1S.6 pei cent in
}uly 2uu9, but still consiueiably above the iate in 2uu7 at 11.S pei cent. Similaily, in
Nacau, China, the youth unemployment iate incieaseu fiom 6.S pei cent in August 2u11
to 7.4 pei cent in August 2u12, compaieu with 7.2 pei cent in August 2uu7. Conveisely,
in the Republic of Koiea, the youth unemployment iate uecieaseu fiom 8.S pei cent in
0ctobei 2u11 to 7.2 pei cent in 0ctobei 2u12, which is just below the iate in the same
month in 2uu7 (7.S pei cent; IL0, 2u1Sb).

0nemployment iates in seveial East Asian countiies aie lowest foi teitiaiy euucateu
woikeis.
11
A consistent pattein in the Republic of Koiea foi many yeais has been the
ielatively high unemployment iate foi those with seconuaiy anu postseconuaiy non
teitiaiy euucation. In moie iecent yeais uiffeiences between unemployment iates by
level of euucation ieuuceu significantly. In 2u1u, the most iecent yeai foi which these
uata aie available, the unemployment iate foi woikeis with seconuaiy anu post
seconuaiy nonteitiaiy euucation was S.S pei cent, compaieu with S.1 pei cent foi
woikeis with a lowei level of euucation anu S.S pei cent foi those with teitiaiy
euucation (0ECB, 2u12).

2.2.3 SouthEastAsiaandthePacific

Youth unemployment iates in SouthEast Asia anu the Pacific aie consiueiably highei
than in East Asia anu South Asia: the iegional iate in SouthEast Asia anu the Pacific
ieacheu 1S.1 pei cent in 2u12. Youth in this iegion seem to be paiticulaily challengeu,
as the iatio of youth to auult unemployment iates is estimateu at S.2 in 2u12. In othei
woius, young people in SouthEast Asia anu the Pacific aie ovei five times moie likely to
be unemployeu than auults. ulobally, the iatio was 2.8, anu in South Asia it was 4.u, both
in 2u12 (table A6).

1u
Available at: http:us.manpowei.comusenmultimeuia2u11TalentShoitageSuivey.puf.
11
Biffeiences in unemployment iates foi woikeis with uiffeient levels of euucational attainment aie one
inuication of skills mismatch. Foi moie infoimation see Chaptei S anu }ohansen anu uatelli (2u12).
2u

The iegional youth unemployment iate in SouthEast Asia anu the Pacific was moving
uownwaius between 2uuS anu 2u11 (figuie 2 anu table A2). Bowevei, on cuiient
piojections, the iegional youth unemployment tienus will iise fiom 1S.S pei cent in
2u1S to above 14 pei cent by 2u17.

Neveitheless, tienus in youth unemployment have been encouiaging in the two most
populous countiies in SouthEast Asia anu the Pacific: the Philippines anu Inuonesia.
The youth unemployment iate in the Philippines was 16.u pei cent in the seconu
quaitei of 2u12, compaieu with 16.6 pei cent in the same peiiou of 2u11 anu 18.8 pei
cent in the same peiiou of 2u1u. In Inuonesia, youth unemployment has ueclineu
significantly fiom 2S.u pei cent in 2u11 to 19.6 pei cent in 2u12 (IL0, 2u1Sa). In the
Philippines, unemployment iates foi young men ueclineu ielatively moie iapiuly uuiing
the same peiiou, with the iate foi young men falling by S.2 peicentage points compaieu
with 2.1 peicentage points foi young women. Conveisely, in Inuonesia, the iate foi
young women fell by 6.6 peicentage points uuiing the iespective peiiou, compaieu with
S.7 peicentage points foi men.

Since the onset of the global economic anu jobs ciisis in 2uu8, paittime woik seemeu to
have become an incieasingly significant pait of laboui maiket aujustments foi youth in
the Philippines, while in othei countiies such as Thailanu paittime woik is on a
uownwaiu tienu. In the Philippines, youth ageu 1S24 saw a ueciease in unemployment
fiom 18.6 pei cent in Apiil 2uu8 to 17.S pei cent in Apiil 2uu9. Buiing that 1yeai
peiiou, howevei, the shaie of youth woiking paittime (less than Su houis pei week)
incieaseu notably fiom 26.6 pei cent to S2.u pei cent. Following a subsequent fall in
paittime employment in 2u1u anu 2u11, youth paittime employment again spikeu in
2u12 at SS.2 pei cent an inciease of 2.S million woikeis. Noieovei, while paittime
employment iemains highei among young Filipino men than theii female counteipaits,
the inciease in the paittime employment iate since 2uu8 has been consiueiably highei
among female youth (8.6 peicentage points) than male youth (S.S peicentage points).

In contiast, paittime employment among young people in Thailanu is significantly
lowei than in the Philippines (figuie 7). The shaie of Thai youth in paittime woik has
fluctuateu but tienueu uownwaiu fiom 14.6 pei cent (712,uuu) in 2uu8 to 1S.7 pei cent
(6S1,uuu) in 2u12, with slight incieases in 2uu9 anu 2u12. Bowevei, an impoitant
uevelopment is the inciease in paittime employment among young Thai females in
iecent yeais to 1S.9 pei cent in 2u12, now maiginally exceeuing the iate of 1S.6 pei
cent foi male youth. In many countiies, incluuing Inuonesia, a laige shaie of paittime
woikeis woulu piefei to woik full time (see box 2).

21

Parttimeworkisimportantforyouthindevelopingeconomies.
Figure7.ParttimeemploymentratesinthePhilippinesandThailand,bysex,20082012
(%)

Souice: IL0 estimates fiom national laboui foice suiveys.
Note: The iefeience peiiou foi the Philippines is Apiil; the iefeience peiiou foi Thailanu is }uly
Septembei; paittime employment is uefineu as woik foi less than Su houis pei week in the main
occupation.

22

Box2.VoluntaryandinvoluntaryparttimeyouthemploymentinIndonesia
Youth unemployment iates in Inuonesia have fallen in iecent yeais, fiom 2S.u pei cent in 2u11
to 19.6 pei cent in 2u12 as the Inuonesian economy has been able to maintain soliu giowth
iates, giowing by 6.2 pei cent in 2u12. In iecent yeais the giowth in paittime woik has playeu
an impoitant iole in expanuing employment anu ieuucing unemployment among youth in
Inuonesia, with paittime woik accounting foi S6.4 pei cent of the inciease in youth
employment between 2u1u anu 2u12.

In 2u12, S1.S pei cent of the employeu youth in Inuonesia weie woiking paittime, uefineu in
Inuonesia as woiking less than SS houis a week. Amongst these young paittime woikeis, the
majoiity (SS.1 pei cent) piefeiieu woiking auuitional houis, although the piopoition of such
woikeis among all young paittime woikeis has uecieaseu substantially fiom 62.6 pei cent in
2u1u to SS.1 pei cent in 2u11.

In Inuonesia, young women aie moie likely than young men to be in voluntaiy paittime woik.
The voluntaiy paittime employment iate foi young women in 2u12 was 17.1 pei cent
compaieu to 1S.S pei cent foi young men. In contiast, the involuntaiy pait time employment
iate foi young men was 18.S pei cent compaieu with 14.S pei cent foi young women.

Boxfigure1.VoluntaryandinvoluntaryparttimeyouthemploymentinIndonesia(%)
Souice: IL0 estimates fiom national laboui foice suiveys.

Note: Refeience peiiou is August; paittime employment is uefineu as woiking less than SS houis pei
week.

2.2.4 CentralandSouthEasternEurope(nonEU)andCIS

Togethei with SouthEast Asia anu the Pacific anu Latin Ameiica anu the Caiibbean,
Cential anu SouthEastein Euiope (nonE0) anu CIS is one of the thiee iegions in which
the iegional youth unemployment iate uiu not inciease fiom 2u11 to 2u12. The youth
unemployment iate came uown fiom a high of 2u.4 pei cent in 2uu9 to 17.9 pei cent in
2S

both 2u11 anu 2u12, anu is piojecteu to iemain slightly highei (18 pei cent) until 2u18
(figuie 2 anu table A2).

In some countiies with a laige youth population shaie the situation is fai woise than
the iegional figuies suggest. In Aimenia, uespite the economic iecoveiy, aveiage youth
unemployment in 2u1u stayeu at S9.1 pei cent, anu iemaineu even highei foi young
women. The unemployment iate foi females ageu 1624 was 48.2 pei cent, compaieu
with S2.2 pei cent foi males (IL0, 2u12c, p. 6). In contiast, Azeibaijan benefiteu fiom a
uecline in the youth unemployment iate fiom 18.4 pei cent in 1999 to 11.u pei cent in
2u1u (IL0, 2u12u). A similai positive tienu was obseiveu in Tuikey wheie the youth
unemployment iate in 2u12 was 17.S pei cent compaieu with 2S.S pei cent in 2uu9 anu
2u.u pei cent in 2uu7.
12

In the Russian Feueiation, the youth unemployment iate in }uly 2u12 stoou at 1S.8 pei
cent, which was foui times highei than the unemployment iate foi those ageu Su49.
National figuies conceal laige iegional uispaiities, with youth unemployment iates
ianging fiom S pei cent in Noscow to S1.S pei cent anu 86.7 pei cent in Chechnya anu
Ingushetia, iespectively.
1S
Bata on infoimal employment fiom the IL0s schooltowoik
tiansition suivey (SWTS) in the Russian Feueiation in 2u12 ieveal that Su.9 pei cent of
all young woikeis weie employeu infoimally (figuie 8).
14
Young women weie slightly
less likely than men to be employeu infoimally (49.7 pei cent anu S1.9 pei cent,
iespectively); with the youngei cohoits moie exposeu to infoimality than young auults
(ageu 2S29). The shaie in infoimal employment in the FYR Naceuonia is similai to the
Russian Feueiation at 48.4 pei cent in 2u12, but the shaie in Aimenia is much highei, at
64.2 pei cent (table BS). An analysis of infoimality among youth living in the selecteu
countiies in Eastein Euiope anu the Caucasus shows that, in 2uu9, onethiiu of total
youth employment was in the infoimal economy.

Skills mismatches aie impoitant in the Russian Feueiations laboui maikets, as the
unemployment iate foi woikeis with an auvanceu euucation is fai lowei than foi
woikeis with a basic euucation (4.S pei cent veisus 16.2 pei cent; IL0, 2u1Sb).
Nismatch is also a seiious concein in some othei countiies of the iegion (see also
Chaptei 4). 0n the one hanu, theie aie not enough jobs foi young univeisity giauuates.
0n the othei hanu, theie is high anu unsatisfieu uemanu foi technicians of all skill levels
anu skilleu bluecollai woikeis.

uenuei uispaiities aie appaient in both youth unemployment anu youth laboui foice
paiticipation in Cential anu SouthEastein Euiope (nonE0) anu CIS. In 2u12, female
youth laboui foice paiticipation was S4.1 pei cent, compaieu with 49.6 pei cent foi
young men (table A4). The genuei gap in youth unemployment iates in the same yeai
was 1.1 peicentage points (figuie S).

12
2u12 Bouseholu Laboui Foice Suivey, TuikStat (Tuikish Statistical Institute).
1S
ReviewofPoliciesforyouthemploymentintheRussianFederation (IL0, foithcoming)
14
Infoimal employment is measuieu accoiuing to the guiuelines iecommenueu by the 17th Inteinational
Confeience of Laboui Statisticians. It incluues the following subcategoiies of woikeis: (a) paiu
employees in infoimal jobs, i.e. jobs without a social secuiity entitlement, paiu annual leave oi paiu sick
leave; (b) paiu employees in an uniegisteieu enteipiise with size class below five employees; (c) own
account woikeis in an uniegisteieu enteipiise with size class below five employees; (u) employeis in an
uniegisteieu enteipiise with size class below five employees; anu (e) contiibuting family woikeis.
24

InformalemploymentaccountsforhalfofyoungworkersintheRussianFederation.
Figure8.YoungworkersininformalemploymentintheRussianFederation,bysexand
agegroup,2012(%)

Souice: IL0 SWTSRussian Feueiation, 2u12 (see Chaptei 4 foi moie infoimation).

2.2.5 LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

The youth unemployment iate in Latin Ameiica anu the Caiibbean uecieaseu fiom 17.6
pei cent in 2uuS to 1S.S pei cent in 2uu8. The global economic ciisis iesulteu in a shaip
inciease in the iate to 1S.4 pei cent in 2uu9, but fiom 2u1u the iegional youth
unemployment iate iesumeu its uownwaiu path to ieach 12.9 pei cent in 2u12. 0n
cuiient piojections, youth unemployment is expecteu to inciease in the meuium teim.
1S

Stiong economic giowth in the iegion has impioveu social anu laboui conuitions, but
young people uo not seem to have fully benefiteu fiom these impiovements. The iatio of
youth to auult unemployment iates, which stoou at 2.S in 2uuu, giauually incieaseu anu
in moie iecent yeais a value of 2.8 has been common. In Aigentina, foi example, the
iatio stoou at S.u in the eaily yeais of the past uecaue, but it ieacheu S.S in 2uu7 anu
incieaseu to S.6 in 2u11. Similaily, values of S.u oi highei seemeu to have become
common in Biazil in iecent yeais. Finally, in venezuela the iatio of youth to auult
unemployment iates ieacheu 2.7 in 2u11, the highest value obseiveu in the past 1u
yeais (IL0, 2u11a).

0nemployment iates in Latin Ameiica anu the Caiibbean often show laige uiffeiences
foi woikeis with uiffeient levels of euucation, anu these uiffeiences aie not always in
favoui of those with the highest euucational achievements. In Peiu, in }uly 2u12, the
highest iate of unemployment was among woikeis with an inteimeuiate level of
euucation, at 7.1 pei cent, compaieu with 6.6 pei cent foi woikeis with eithei a basic

1S
Regional estimates piesenteu heie uiveige fiom those publisheu in the PanoramaLaboral (IL0, 2u12j),
mainly as a iesult of uiffeiences in geogiaphical coveiage. Woik on conveigence in these estimates is
cuiiently being unueitaken.
2S

level oi an auvanceu level. In Chile, woikeis with a seconuaiy euucation also have the
highest unemployment iate, at 7.S pei cent in 0ctobei 2u12 (compaieu with 4.S pei
cent foi piimaiy euucateu woikeis anu S.9 pei cent foi teitiaiy euucateu woikeis).
Similaily, in Aigentina, the iate foi seconuaiy euucateu woikeis was 8.6 pei cent in Nay
2u12 (compaieu with 8.2 pei cent foi woikeis with a piimaiy euucation anu S.1 pei
cent foi woikeis with an auvanceu euucation; IL0, 2u1Sb).

In Peiu, seconuaiy euucateu woikeis constitute 19 pei cent of the unemployeu, but in
both Aigentina anu Chile these woikeis make up a much highei piopoition of the
unemployeu (49 pei cent S4 pei cent, iespectively; IL0, 2u1Sb). Skills mismatch in
these countiies theiefoie seems to be concentiateu to a significant extent among
seconuaiy giauuates. This is paitly uue to an inciease in the uemanu foi woikeis with a
college euucation ielative to those with seconuaiy euucation (Nenezes Filho, 2u1S).

While youth unemployment in Latin Ameiica anu the Caiibbean is cause of concein,
equally woiiying is that 19.8 pei cent of the iegions youth fall in the NEET categoiy
(0IT, 2u1u). IL0 uata show that the laigest shaie of NEETs (S1.7 pei cent) in the iegion
weie engageu in householu tasks, 2S.1 pei cent weie the unemployeu anu the
iemaining 2S.2 pei cent weie neithei woiking noi stuuying foi othei ieasons. Because
they aie not impioving theii futuie employability thiough investment in skills oi woik
expeiience, NEETs aie paiticulaily at iisk of laboui maiket anu social exclusion.

2.2.6 MiddleEast

The Niuule East has the highest youth unemployment iate of all iegions. Noie than one
in foui economically active young people aie unemployeu. The youth unemployment
iate in 2u12 is estimateu at 28.S pei cent, anu the iate is piojecteu to inciease giauually
to Su.u pei cent in 2u18 (figuie 2 anu table A2).

The employment situation is paiticulaily bleak in }oiuan anu the 0ccupieu Palestinian
Teiiitoiy, wheie 29.9 pei cent (2u11) anu S8.8 pei cent (2u1u) of young people in the
laboui foice weie unemployeu. Fuitheimoie, in Sauui Aiabia anu Iian, 28.S pei cent
(2u12) anu 2S.u pei cent (2uu8), iespectively, of 1S24 yeaiolus in the laboui foice
weie unemployeu (IL0, 2u11a anu 2u1Sb).

Togethei with Noith Afiica, the Niuule East is one of the two iegions in which the total
unemployment iate (acioss all age gioups) exceeueu 1u pei cent in 2u12. Bowevei,
given the high youth to auult iatio of unemployment iates (S.8), as well as the youthful
population in this iegion, youth beai the biunt of the unemployment pioblem,
constituting 44.7 pei cent of the unemployeu. Young people in the iegion face
joblessness uespite the ielatively low laboui foice paiticipation iate of youth, which is
the lowest of all iegions (at Su.S pei cent in 2u12; table A4). Bowevei, youth laboui
foice paiticipation iates vaiy wiuely in the iegion. Qatai shows a paiticipation iate of
68.8 pei cent in 2u11 while }oiuans youth paiticipation is 2.7 times lowei, at 2S.2 pei
cent (IL0, 2u11a).

Theie aie laige genuei uiffeiences in the employment situation foi young people in the
Niuule East. While the unemployment iate foi young males is estimateu at 24.S pei cent
in 2u12, 42.6 pei cent of young females in the laboui foice weie unemployeu. The
26

unemployment iate foi young women is high uespite the fact that the female laboui
foice paiticipation iate is the lowest of all iegions, at 1S.2 pei cent in 2u12. Female
laboui foice paiticipation is paiticulaily low in }oiuan, wheie only 9.S pei cent of young
women paiticipate in the laboui foice. In contiast, the iegional youth male paiticipation
iate 46.S pei cent is compaiable to the iates in the auvanceu economies.

2.2.7 NorthAfrica

As in the Niuule East, the youth unemployment iate in Noith Afiica is veiy high, at 2S.7
pei cent in 2u12. The unemployment iate foi young women is even highei, at S7.u pei
cent, compaieu with 18.S pei cent foi young men in 2u12. 0nemployment affects youth
to a gieatei extent than auults; the youth unemployment iate in 2u12 was S.4 times the
auult unemployment iate. The outlook foi the coming yeais iemains bleak, with youth
unemployment piojecteu to iemain close to 24 pei cent until 2u18 (figuie 2 anu table
A2).

Bespite the uisauvantageu position of young people, theii shaie in total unemployment
has been (slowly) uecieasing uue to uemogiaphic changes in paiticulai the shaie of
youth in the total population has been falling. In 2uuu, one in thiee peisons of woiking
age was ageu between 1S anu 24, but in 2u12 this piopoition hau uioppeu to 28 pei
cent, anu it is piojecteu to fall to one in foui peisons in 2u1S. Bemogiaphic tienus aie
less impoitant in explaining the shaie of women in total (female anu male)
unemployment, which is piimaiily uiiven by uiffeiences in laboui foice paiticipation
iates. At the iegional level, the female youth laboui foice paiticipation iate in Noith
Afiica is the seconu lowest in 2u12 only 19.7 pei cent of young females of the woiking
age population paiticipate in the laboui foice while 46.8 pei cent of young males
paiticipate. The gap between male anu female youth paiticipation is not expecteu to
become much smallei in the meuium teim. It is piojecteu that in 2u17, 2u.1 pei cent of
young women will be in the laboui foice.

Theie is gieat heteiogeneity between countiies in teims of youth unemployment by sex.
In 2u11, the youth unemployment iates foi males anu females in Noiocco weie faiily
close, with young men facing a slightly highei unemployment iate (18.1 pei cent) than
young women (17.4 pei cent). In Algeiia, on the othei hanu, young women weie fai
moie likely to be affecteu by unemployment than young men. The female youth
unemployment iate in this countiy was S7.S pei cent in 2u1u, while the male youth
unemployment iate stoou at 18.7 pei cent (IL0, 2u11a).

Skills mismatches aie a stiuctuial laboui maiket pioblem in Noith Afiica, which can be
illustiateu using unemployment iates by euucational attainment. The unemployment
iate foi peisons with teitiaiylevel euucation aie among the highest in the woilu, at
21.4 pei cent, 18.9 pei cent anu 17.4 pei cent in 2u1u in Algeiia, Egypt anu Noiocco,
iespectively. In Algeiia anu Egypt, these iates aie highei than foi peisons with piimaiy
oi seconuaiy euucation, pointing at a mismatch between the supply anu uemanu of
skills anu euucation. In most auvanceu economies, peisons with highei levels of
euucation aie less likely to be unemployeu, but this uoes not seem to apply to Noith
Afiican economies, as piospects of finuing jobs foi those having completeu teitiaiy
euucation aie giim.

27

2.2.8 SubSaharanAfrica

Although the iegional youth unemployment iate in SubSahaian Afiica is lowei than in
most othei iegions, it is significantly highei than the auult unemployment iate.
Compaieu with an auult unemployment iate of S.9 pei cent in 2u12, youth aie twice as
likely to be unemployeu with an estimateu youth unemployment iate of 11.8 pei cent in
2u12. Youth unemployment iates much highei than the iegional aveiage aie founu in
South Afiica, wheie ovei half of young people in the laboui foice weie unemployeu in
the fiist thiee quaiteis of 2u12, anu in Namibia (S8.9 pei cent in 2uu8), Runion (S8.6
pei cent in 2u11) anu Lesotho (S4.4 pei cent in 2uu8; IL0, 2u11a anu 2u1Sb). 0n
cuiient tienus, the youth unemployment iate is piojecteu to iemain close to 11.7 pei
cent in the coming yeais.

Similaily to South Asia, the ielatively low iegional youth unemployment iate in Sub
Sahaian Afiica is linkeu to the high levels of poveity. The iegion has by fai the highest
iate of woiking poveity, estimateu at 4u.1 pei cent in 2u12 at the 0S$1.2S pei uay level,
anu woiking is a necessity foi many young people. At the 0S$2 pei uay level, the
woiking poveity iate iises to 64 pei cent; only South Asia has a woiking poveity iate at
compaiable levels (although the woiking poveity iate at the 0S$1.2S pei uay level is
significantly lowei in South Asia). Bowevei, even though high levels of woiking poveity
peisist in SubSahaian Afiica, the shaies of woiking pooi at $1.2S anu $2 pei uay have
uioppeu in the past 1S yeais fiom peaks of almost S9 anu 77 pei cent iespectively in
1994 to theii lowest level yet in 2u12 (IL0, 2u11a).

uiven the high poveity levels anu high shaie of vulneiable employment, youth
employment in SubSahaian Afiica is as much a qualitative pioblem as a quantitative
pioblem (IL0, 2u1Sa).
16
Wage anu salaiieu woikeis account foi almost half of
employment at the global level (48.4 pei cent in 2u12), but this piopoition is only 21.4
pei cent in SubSahaian Afiica, compaieu with 6S.8 pei cent in Latin Ameiica anu the
Caiibbean anu 49.4 pei cent in East Asia. Nany youth stait theii woiking life as unpaiu
family woikeis, one of the two categoiies of vulneiable employment, anu at some point
become ownaccount woikeis, the othei categoiy. The theme of pooi quality
employment is specifically auuiesseu in Chaptei 4.

Skills mismatch is an issue in SubSahaian Afiica, as in many countiies unemployment
iates foi the betteieuucateu aie low in compaiison with unemployment iates foi the
lowskilleu. In South Afiica, foi example, the unemployment iate in 2u11 foi peisons
with a teitiaiy euucation was 8.8 pei cent, compaieu with a iate of 29.u pei cent foi
those with a piimaiy euucation. Bowevei, wheie theie is only a small foimal sectoi anu
aspiiing jobseekeis look foi secuie employment, the opposite pattein can aiise. In
Tanzania, foi example, the unemployment iate foi those with seconuaiy euucation anu
above has been consistently highei than the iate foi those with lowei levels of
euucation (IL0, 2u1ub). The ielatively high iates foi peisons with highei levels of
euucation is not an inuication of an abunuant supply of euucateu woikeis, as

16
vulneiable employment is uefineu as the sum of ownaccount woik anu unpaiu family woik; this
uefinition is subject to some limitations: (1) wage anu salaiy employment is not synonymous with uecent
woik, as woikeis may caiiy a high economic iisk uespite the fact that they aie in wage employment; (2) a
woikei may be classifieu in one of the two vulneiable gioups but still not caiiy a high economic iisk,
especially in the uevelopeu economies. Foi a uiscussion see Spaiieboom anu Albee (2u11).
28

unueiqualification is wiuespieau in lowincome economies such as Tanzania
(Spaiieboom anu Nblei, 2u1S). Similaily, the youth unemployment iate in Togo in
2u12 was 7.S pei cent foi youth ageu 1S29, but almost one out of foui young people
with postseconuaiy euucation weie unemployeu. Bowevei, the lattei gioup accounteu
foi only 1S.S pei cent of unemployeu youth in this countiy.
17

17
IL0, SWTSTogo, 2u12. See Chaptei 4 foi moie infoimation.
29

3. Youthunemployment,employmentandskillsmismatchin
advancedeconomies

The global economic ciisis causeu a massive ieuuction in jobs, often concentiateu in
only a small numbei of sectois. As a iesult, evei moie young unemployeu have been
foiceu to consiuei jobs in sectois oi occupations in which they uiu not woik pieviously,
oi hau not envisageu befoie enteiing the laboui maiket. A mismatch may theiefoie
exist between the skills these young people possess anu the skills that aie uemanueu by
piospective employeis. Such a mismatch between skills supply anu uemanu hampeis
the ieallocation of laboui anu puts upwaiu piessuie on unemployment iates.

0thei foims of skills anu qualifications mismatch may also have woiseneu. Woikeis
may incieasingly be employeu in occupations that unueiutilize theii skills set
(oveiqualifieu woikeis) oi in occupations that noimally iequiie skills they uo not
possess (unueiqualifieu woikeis). In both cases, skills mismatch affects the job
satisfaction anu wages of inuiviuual woikeis, as well as the piouuctivity of fiims. It may
also leau to incieases in tuinovei of staff (Quintini, 2u11). Nost impoitantly,
qualification mismatch pievents countiies fiom iealizing the full potential of theii
laboui foice anu constiains piouuctivity giowth.

This chaptei examines skills mismatch in auvanceu countiies, wheie incieasing
euucational attainment has contiibuteu to a highei inciuence of oveieuucation. Chaptei
4 ueals with skills mismatch issues in ueveloping countiies, wheie unueieuucation is
still wiuespieau as euucational attainment is much lowei. Both in auvanceu anu
ueveloping countiies, howevei, the extent anu types of skills mismatches vaiy wiuely,
making it necessaiy to use multiple inuicatois.

The issue of skills mismatch has ieceiveu ieneweu attention in the auvanceu economies
uue to the economic ciisis, but vaiious foims of mismatch aie always piesent in the
laboui maiket. Skills uemanu anu supply aie influenceu by a iange of factois incluuing
foi example the level of economic uevelopment of a countiy, technological change anu
uemogiaphics. The extent to which skills supply anu uemanu aie matcheu is a majoi
factoi shaping economic anu laboui maiket outcomes, economic giowth, piouuctivity
anu competitiveness (see figuie 9). Theiefoie, the foimulation anu implementation of
effective euucation anu tiaining policies, incluuing iesponsive euucation anu tiaining
systems, is a continuous challenge foi all countiies. Neeting this challenge iequiies
linking skills uevelopment to employment anu economic uevelopment, involving social
paitneis anu key stakeholueis in skills uevelopment systems, anu effective laboui
maiket infoimation anu analysis systems.
18

This chaptei examines two types of skills mismatch (see box S on the measuiement of
skills mismatch). The fiist type is baseu on a compaiison of the euucational attainments
of the employeu anu the unemployeu. The main finuing iegaiuing this type of mismatch
is the high iisk of mismatch foi those at the bottom of the euucational pyiamiu.

The seconu type consists of mismatch between jobs helu by young woikeis anu the
qualifications they possess. The main finuings iegaiuing this type of mismatch aie that

18
See IL0 Recommenuation No. 19S (2uu4) on human iesouices uevelopment.
Su

youth (ageu 1S29) aie fai moie exposeu to oveieuucation than woikeis ageu Su anu
above, anu aie also fai less likely to be unueieuucateu. It is also uemonstiateu that the
economic ciisis hau a majoi impact on mismatch, in paiticulai with iegaiu to the
inciuence of oveieuucation. Apait fiom youth, laboui maiket gioups that often face an
elevateu mismatch iisk incluue women, the uisableu anu migiants.

Both types of mismatch concein stiuctuial issues in the laboui maiket that aie not
necessaiily coiielateu with measuieu unemployment iates. The ieason foi this is that
changes in unemployment iates aie to a laige extent uiiven by cyclical economic factois
anu less so by stiuctuial conuitions. Bowevei, foi inuiviuual countiies anu paiticulai
laboui maiket gioups mismatch can be ielateu to unemployment iates.
Figure9.Economiccontextandskillsmismatch

Souice: Piesenteu to the u2u Woiking uioup on Buman Resouice Bevelopment (2u12) by the IL0, 0ECB,
0NESC0 anu the Woilu Bank.

S1

Box3.Measuringskillsmismatch
Theie is no agieeu uefinition of skills mismatch. Skills mismatch is an encompassing teim
which iefeis to vaiious types of imbalances between skills offeieu anu skills neeueu in the
woilu of woik, anu it applies equally to the employeu anu the unemployeu. Skills anu
competencies pei se aie not measuieu by the iegulai statistical piogiammes of most countiies.
That is why skill pioxies aie useu, such as qualifications, yeais of schooling anu occupations.
Some of the moie fiequently uiscusseu types of skills mismatch incluue the following:

Skill shoitage
(suiplus)
Bemanu (supply) foi a paiticulai type of skill exceeus the supply
(uemanu) of people with that skill
Skill gap Type oi level of skills is uiffeient fiom that iequiieu to auequately
peifoim the job
veitical mismatch The level of euucation oi qualification is less oi moie than iequiieu
Boiizontal
mismatch
The typefielu of euucation oi skills is inappiopiiate foi the job
0veieuucation
(unueieuucation)
Woikeis have moie (less) yeais of euucation than the job iequiies
0veiqualification
(unueiqualification)
Woikeis holu a highei (lowei) qualification than the job iequiies

Each type of mismatch can be measuieu in seveial ways, anu each measuiement methou has
auvantages anu uisauvantages. Foi instance, the measuiement of mismatch between uemanu
anu supply on the laboui maiket baseu on a compaiison of the stiuctuies of euucational
attainment of the employeu anu the unemployeu may cleaily inuicate which level of euucation
is in shoit supply. But this uoes not pioviue infoimation about aieas of euucation that aie in
uemanu. This also means that no conclusions can be uiawn with iegaiu to vocational tiaining
oi specific fielus of tiaining.

In this iepoit, we analyse euucational attainment mismatch baseu on two measuies:
(a) A compaiison of the euucational attainments of the employeu anu the unemployeu (section
S.1). In uevelopeu economies, this compaiison often uemonstiates the ielatively favouiable
position of youth with highei levels of euucation, which is ieflecteu in lowei unemployment
iates foi those with a teitiaiy euucation. As was illustiateu in Chaptei 2, the situation is
moie uiveise in the ueveloping woilu, wheie it is not unusual to finu highei iates of
unemployment foi the betteieuucateu.
(b) The euucational attainment of woikeis in compaiison with the level of euucational
attainment assigneu to occupations (section S.2). Woikeis in a paiticulai gioup who have
the assigneu level of euucation aie consiueieu well matcheu. Those who have a highei
(lowei) level of euucation aie consiueieu oveieuucateu (unueieuucateu). In geneial, in the
uevelopeu woilu, incieasing euucational attainment has contiibuteu to the inciuence of
oveieuucation. In many ueveloping countiies attainment levels aie much lowei anu so
unueieuucation anu unueiskilling aie moie wiuespieau (see Chaptei 4).

Foi moie infoimation see:
Baitlett (2u12), Ceuefop (2u1u) anu }ohansen anu uatelli (2u12).

S2

3.1 Skillsmismatchbetweenlaboursupplyanddemand
Nismatch between the supply of skills anu uemanu foi skills can be quantifieu with an
inuex of uissimilaiity.
19
The inuex is baseu on a compaiison of the stiuctuie of
euucational attainment of the employeu anu the unemployeu, anu mismatch is captuieu
if unemployment iates uiffei between woikeis with uiffeient levels of euucational
attainment.
2u
The inuex ianges fiom u (no mismatch) to 1 oi 1uu pei cent (full
mismatch). If, foi example, unemployment iates aie the same foi woikeis with piimaiy,
seconuaiy anu teitiaiy euucation, the inuex woulu equal u. If, on the othei hanu, all
woikeis with piimaiy anu teitiaiy euucation aie employeu anu all those with
seconuaiy euucation aie unemployeu, the inuex woulu equal 1uu pei cent (see Annex F
foi methouological uetails). The inuex by itself uoes not pioviue infoimation iegaiuing
the level of euucation which is ielatively in uemanu. It shoulu also be noteu that the
inuex shows laige vaiiations ovei time, especially foi some smallei countiies. This has
to uo with the fact that the inuex is baseu on thiee levels of euucation, anu small
countiies in paiticulai may be hit by asymmetiic shocks, affecting woikeis in one skill
categoiy moie stiongly anu theieby moving the inuex even ovei shoit peiious of time.

A wiue iange in this type of skills mismatch is seen acioss countiies. In a sample of 28
Euiopean countiies, skills mismatch was less than 1u pei cent in eight countiies in
2u11, anu exceeueu 2u pei cent in foui countiies (Belgium, Finlanu, Luxembouig anu
Sweuen) (table C1). It shoulu be noteu that this type of mismatch is not an inuication of
the quality oi iesponsiveness of euucation anu tiaining systems. Bighquality euucation
anu tiaining impioves the employability of woikeis, anu in this way contiibutes to low
unemployment. Bowevei, among those who aie unemployeu theie aie likely to be many
woikeis who uiu not benefit fiom the euucation system to the same extent as the
employeu.

A high level of the mismatch inuex ieflects laige uiffeiences in unemployment iates
between youth with uiffeient levels of euucation. In Sweuen in 2u11, foi example, the
unemployment iate foi youth with piimaiy euucation oi lowei (S8.6 pei cent) was
moie than thiee times the iate foi youth with teitiaiy euucation (12.4 pei cent) in 2u11
(tables C2a anu C2c). Although the uiffeience in Sweuen is veiy laige, the pattein of
lowei unemployment among woikeis with a highei level of euucation is seen in many
countiies (IL0, 2u12a; 0ECB, 2u12). But theie aie also examples of countiies with a
moie similai pattein of unemployment iates by level of euucation, which is ieflecteu in
a low value of the mismatch inuex. In Switzeilanu, foi instance, the inuex was 1.6 pei
cent in 2u11. The unemployment iate foi youth with piimaiy euucation was 7.8 pei
cent in 2u11 in this countiy, compaieu with 7.S pei cent foi youth with a seconuaiy
euucation anu 8.S pei cent foi youth with a teitiaiy euucation.

As was alieauy noteu, the level of mismatch is ielatively high in Belgium, anu the iise in
iecent yeais ieflects the ueteiioiating position of woikeis with a low level of euucation.

19
The socalleu Buncan anu Buncan inuex of uissimilaiity (IB) is wellknown in othei fielus of laboui
maiket analysis; it is aiguably the most wiuely useu measuie of laboui maiket segiegation by sex (Ankei,
Nelkas anu Koiten, 2uuS), anu similai inuices have been useu to measuie skills mismatch (see, foi
example, Estevo anu Tsounta, 2u11).
2u
0n the use of unemployment iates by euucational attainment to measuie skills mismatch, see, foi
example, }ohansen anu uatelli (2u12).
SS

The unemployment iate foi woikeis with piimaiy euucation in Belgium incieaseu fiom
2uu9 to 2u11 (fiom Su.2 to S1 pei cent), while the iate foi woikeis with seconuaiy anu
teitiaiy euucation uecieaseu (fiom 2u.S to 1S.S pei cent anu fiom 16.6 to 12.1 pei
cent). Similaily, the iise in the aveiage inuex foi 28 countiies with available uata fiom
1S.2 pei cent in 2u1u to 1S.7 pei cent in 2u11 ieflects a ueteiioiating position of youth
with piimaiy euucation in most countiies. Fiom 2u1u to 2u11, the unemployment iate
foi youth with piimaiy euucation incieaseu in 18 out of 28 countiies, while the
unemployment iate foi youth with teitiaiy euucation uecieaseu in 17 out of 28
countiies (tables C2a anu C2c).

3.1.1 Skillsmismatchandunemployment

Although skills mismatch hampeis the matching of jobseekeis anu job openings,
mismatch is not necessaiily coiielateu with unemployment iates. The ieason foi this is
that unemployment iates aie uiiven by many macio factois. Countiies with stiong
economic giowth may expeiience mismatch, but this may attiact little attention if many
job openings aie cieateu anu youth unemployment is on the ueciease foi all skills
levels.

To illustiate some of the possible patteins, figuie 1u plots movements in unemployment
iates anu the mismatch inuex at the countiy level. In Belgium anu Slovakia, mismatch
anu unemployment have laigely moveu in opposition, while in Slovenia anu Spain they
have moveu laigely in tanuem. In Spain, the mismatch inuex incieaseu foi most of the
peiiou 2uu22u1u, while in Belgium anu Slovenia the inuex iose fiom 2uu9 to 2u11. In
Belgium, Slovenia anu Spain the iise of the inuex ieflecteu a ueteiioiation of the
(ielative) position of unemployeu with a low level of euucational attainment.
21

Accoiuingly, much can be gaineu in these countiies if employment policies taiget this
gioup of unemployeu youth. Nonitoiing consistent changes anu ielatively high levels of
skills mismatch is impoitant because in many cases theie is an oveilap between
uisauvantageu gioups such as NEETs anu youth with low levels of euucation. In
Slovakia, this type of mismatch ueclineu as the unemployment iate of woikeis with
seconuaiy anu teitiaiy euucation incieaseu (fiom 24.S to Su.7 pei cent anu fiom 22.4 to
24.u pei cent, iespectively), while the iate foi piimaiy euucateu woikeis uecieaseu
fiom 2uu9 to 2u11 (fiom 64.S to 6S.6 pei cent). Neveitheless, the position of woikeis
with seconuaiy anu teitiaiy euucation iemaineu fai moie favouiable than those with
piimaiy euucation in Slovakia.

21
Even if unemployment iates incieaseu foi all woikeis, the iate foi woikeis with piimaiy euucation
incieaseu moie in ielation with the level of unemployment. In Spain, foi example, the unemployment iate
foi youth with piimaiy euucation moie than uoubleu fiom 2uu2 to 2u1u, which was not the case foi
woikeis with seconuaiy anu teitiaiy euucation.
S4

Skillsmismatchmayormaynotmovetogetherwithyouthunemploymentrates.
Figure10.Skillsmismatchandyouthunemploymentratesinselectedcountries,2000
2011,(%)

A. Belgium

B. Slovakia
C. Slovenia

B. Spain

Souice: IL0 calculations baseu on Euiostat (see Annex C anu Annex F).

SS

3.2 Skillsmismatchbyoccupation
Besiues the skills mismatch between laboui supply anu uemanu, theie is a mismatch
between the skills that employeu (young) people have anu the skills iequiieu in theii
jobs. Woikeis can be oveieuucateu oi unueieuucateu foi the jobs oi occupations they
holu. Conceins ovei this seconu type of mismatch have been iising in many countiies,
wheie incieasing euucational attainment levels occui alongsiue high unemployment
iates. In geneial, oveieuucation is explaineu by competition foi jobs, which pushes the
bettei euucateu into jobs oi occupations with lowei iemuneiation usually taken by
those with a lowei level of euucation (Kaiakaya, Plasman anu Rycx, 2uu7). This type of
skills mismatch anu its negative implications aie likely to inciease in times of economic
anu laboui maiket ciisis.

3.2.1 Incidenceandconsequencesofmismatch

As theie aie many appioaches to anu uefinitions of unueieuucation anu oveieuucation,
estimates foi this seconu type of skills mismatch typically vaiy wiuely. In countiy
stuuies iepoiteu in the liteiatuie, between 1u pei cent anu onethiiu of the employeu
aie founu to be oveieuucateu anu aiounu 2u pei cent aie unueieuucateu, which iesults
in a total mismatch of between Su pei cent anu Su pei cent of the employeu in Euiopean
countiies (table 1 anu table 2 below). 0nly a few of the stuuies focus specifically on
youth anu compaiisons between youth anu auults shoulu theiefoie be maue cautiously.
Neveitheless, the finuings appeai to be in line with stuuies foi all age cohoits.
22

Reseaich also shows that the oveieuucateu face a numbei of uisauvantages compaieu
to the wellmatcheu. Foi the oveieuucateu, wages aie highei than foi the wellmatcheu
at the same job, but ietuins to the yeais of schooling beyonu the iequiieu level aie
lowei. The oveieuucateu also eain less than those who have the same level of euucation
but uo have a job that is matching theii euucation. 0nueieuucateu woikeis eain less
than the wellmatcheu at the same job, but moie than woikeis with the same
euucational level anu a matching job (uioenevelu anu Baitog, 2uu4; Baitog, 2uuu;
Rubb, 2uuS).

0veieuucateu woikeis uo not enjoy fastei wage giowth than the wellmatcheu (Koipi
anu Thlin, 2uu9), but oveieuucation has been linkeu to upwaiu mobility (Bekkei, Be
uiip anu Bijke, 2uu2). Bowevei, lack of caieei oppoitunities may iesult in limiteu
commitment to the woikplace (Blenkinsopp anu Scuiiy, 2uu7), anu eviuence shows
that the oveieuucateu aie moie likely to engage in a job seaich (Walu, 2uuS). Taiviu
(2u12) founu that oveieuucateu giauuates aie always less satisfieu with theii jobs than
theii wellmatcheu counteipaits.

22
Agut, Peiio anu uiau (2uu9); Baione anu 0itiz (2u1u); Betti anu B'Agostino anu Neii (2u11); Chevaliei
(2uuS); Fienette (2uu4); uuiionnet anu Peypoch (2uu7); Ncuuiness anu Bennett (2uu7); Stien anu
Wieis}enssen (2u1u); anu veihaest anu 0mey (2u1u).
S6

Table1.IncidenceofovereducationinEuropeancountries(%)
All Male Female Youth(aged<30)

Austria 1.19.6
Belgium 10.5 54.2 21.749.1
CzechRepublic 1.57.1
Finland 11.1 3.314.1
Germany 11.8 60.6 12.3 14.1 10.7 19.1 2.212.6
Italy 13.9 71.5 14.9 12.8 4.019.0
Netherlands 11.2 30.6 8.7 11.5 12.2 13.6 2.941.7
Norway 16.6 32.6 2.520.4
Portugal 12.6 33.0
Spain 15.0 37.2 6.524.8
Switzerland 14.9 15 14.7
UnitedKingdom 13.0 36.8 25 27 19.053.0
Note: The table shows the iange in inciuence of oveieuucation in each countiy accoiuing to the stuuies
listeu below.
Souice: Baione anu 0itiz (2u1u); Bauei (2uu2); Biynin anu Longhi (2uu9); Bchel anu Battu (2uuS);
Bchel anu van Bam (2uuS); Buuiia (2u11); Cainaica anu Sgobbi (2u12); Chevaliei (2uuS); Cutillo anu Bi
Pietio (2uu6); Bekkei, Be uiip anu Beijke (2uu2); uioot anu van uen Biink (2uuu); Baitog (2uuu);
}auhiainen (2u11); }ensen, uaitnei anu Rsslei (2u1u); Kaiakaya et al. (2uu7); Ncuuiness anu Bennett
(2uu7); Nuiillo, RahonaLopez anu Bel Nai Salinas}imnez (2u12); 0itiz anu Kucel (2uu8); Stien anu
Wieis}enssen (2u1u); Sutheilanu (2u12); veihaest anu 0mey (2u1u); Wiiz anu Atukeien (2uuS).
Table2.IncidenceofundereducationinEuropeancountries(%)
All Male Female Youth(aged<30)

Belgium 25.832.4
Germany 12.1 10.4 15.6
Italy 17.1 17.7 16.3 11.7
Netherlands 12 3.8 16.7 2.1 14.3
Portugal 17.038.0
Spain 11.025.6
UnitedKingdom 17

Note: The table shows the iange in inciuence of unueieuucation in each countiy accoiuing to the stuuies
listeu below.
Souice: Bauei (2uu2); Cainaica anu Sgobbi (2u12); uioot anu van uen Biink (2uuu); Baitog (2uuu);
Kaiakaya et al. (2uu7); Nuiillo et al. (2u12).
3.2.2 Measurement

Skills mismatch in the sense of oveieuucation oi unueieuucation means that woikeis
have eithei moie euucation oi less euucation than is iequiieu. This iepoit uses a
common measuie of this type of skills mismatch baseu on the Inteinational Stanuaiu
Classification of 0ccupations (ISC0) (see, foi example, Quintini, 2u11). This noimative
measuie staits fiom a uivision of majoi occupational gioups (fiistuigit ISC0 levels) into
foui bioau gioups (table S) anu assigns a level of euucation to each occupational gioup
S7

in accoiuance with the Inteinational Stanuaiu Classification of Euucation (ISCEB).
2S

Woikeis in a paiticulai gioup who have the assigneu level of euucation aie consiueieu
well matcheu. Those who have a highei (lowei) level of euucation aie consiueieu
oveieuucateu (unueieuucateu). Foi instance, a univeisity giauuate woiking as a cleik (a
lowskilleu nonmanual occupation) is oveieuucateu, while a seconuaiy school giauuate
woiking as an engineei (a highskilleu nonmanual occupation) is unueieuucateu.
Table3.ISCOmajorgroupsandskilllevels
ISCOmajorgroup Broadoccupationgroup Skilllevel
1:Legislators,seniorofficials,managers
Highskillednonmanual Tertiary(ISCED56) 2:Professionals
3:Techniciansandassociate
professionals
4:Clerks
Lowskillednonmanual
Secondary(ISCED34)
5:Serviceworkers,shop,marketsales
workers
6:Skilledagriculturalandfisheryworkers
Skilledmanual 7:Craftandrelatedtradesworkers
8:Plantandmachineoperatorsand
assemblers
9:Elementaryoccupations Unskilled Primary(ISCED12)

Note: Excluuing aimeu foices occupations.

An auvantage of the ISC0baseu measuie is that the uefinition of mismatch uoes not
change ovei time anu the iesults aie theiefoie stiictly compaiable. A uisauvantage of
this measuie is that, by constiuction, it uoes not allow foi eithei oveieuucation in majoi
gioups 1 to S oi unueieuucation in majoi gioup 9.
24

The uata useu in this chaptei aie fiom the Euiopean Social Suivey (ESS), iounus 1
thiough S (Noiwegian Social Science Bata Seivices, 2uu2; 2uu4; 2uu6; 2uu8; 2u1u).
This is a biennial suivey coveiing ovei Su countiies, but countiy coveiage uiffeis by
iounu: out of S4 countiies foi which uata aie available, only 16 appeai in all five
iounus.
2S

In most contexts, a young peison is uefineu as a peison ageu 1S24, anu this uefinition
has been useu in most of this iepoit so fai. Foi the puipose of measuiing mismatch in
the sense of oveieuucation oi unueieuucation, the uppei age bounu is extenueu to 29

2S
The assignment of skill levels to majoi occupational gioups is baseu on IL0 (2u12f).
24
uiven that woikeis in auvanceu economies usually have at least a completeu piimaiy euucation; this
situation is uiffeient in a ueveloping countiy context (see Chaptei 4).
2S
ISC0 submajoi gioups with less than five obseivations in a paiticulai countiy anu iounu of the suivey
have been excluueu fiom the analysis. This mainly conceins legislatois anu senioi officials (ISC0: 11),
piecisionhanuiciaft anu ielateu woikeis (ISC0: 7S), stationaiy plant anu ielateu opeiatois (ISC0: 81),
anu agiicultuiefisheiy anu ielateu labouieis (ISC0: 92).
S8

yeais. This is in iecognition of the fact that some young people iemain in euucation
beyonu the age of 24 yeais.

3.2.3 Overeducationandundereducationinasampleofcountries

Countiies uiffei maikeuly in mismatch patteins (table 4 anu table S). 0veieuucation in
2u1u iangeu fiom below 1u pei cent in seven countiies (Czech Republic, Bungaiy, the
Netheilanus, Polanu, Poitugal, Sweuen anu Switzeilanu) to above 2u pei cent in Cypius
anu the Russian Feueiation. Similaily, unueieuucation in 2u1u was below 1u pei cent in
thiee countiies (Bungaiy, the Russian Feueiation anu 0kiaine), anu exceeueu Su pei
cent in five countiies (the Netheilanus, Polanu, Poitugal, Spain anu the 0niteu
Kinguom). 0veieuucation is moie pievalent among woikeis ageu 1S29 than among
those ageu Su anu above. The opposite is tiue in the case of unueieuucation, wheie in
the laige majoiity of countiies this is less common among the young.

S9

Table4.Incidenceofovereducationbyagegroup(%)

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Y
o
u
n
g

(
1
5
-
2
9
)

M
a
t
u
r
e

(
3
0
+
)

T
o
t
a
l

Y
o
u
n
g

(
1
5
-
2
9
)

M
a
t
u
r
e

(
3
0
+
)

T
o
t
a
l

Y
o
u
n
g

(
1
5
-
2
9
)

M
a
t
u
r
e

(
3
0
+
)

T
o
t
a
l

Y
o
u
n
g

(
1
5
-
2
9
)

M
a
t
u
r
e

(
3
0
+
)

T
o
t
a
l

Y
o
u
n
g

(
1
5
-
2
9
)

M
a
t
u
r
e

(
3
0
+
)

T
o
t
a
l

Austria 3.4 3.6 3.6 4.0 6.0 5.7 3.7 5.9 5.4 8.7 6.4 7.0
Belgium 8.2 10.5 10.0 15.5 10.7 11.8 9.7 8.8 8.9 11.8 8.2 8.9 18.5 12.6 13.6
Bulgaria 5.5 8.0 7.6 5.7 7.4 7.1 14.7 10.8 11.2
Croatia 16.6 11.7 12.8 13.3 12.9 12.9
Cyprus 22.6 13.5 15.5 21.3 16.8 17.9 33.2 17.6 21
Czech Republic 6.0 7.5 7.3 6.4 5.7 5.8 5.4 7.1 6.8 6.8 7.8 7.6
Denmark 15.1 11.4 12 12.9 13.0 12.9 6.5 10.9 10.4 7.7 13.3 12.5 8.9 10.6 10.4
Estonia 8.0 13.9 12.7 8.9 13.5 12.5 9.8 10.5 10.3 16.5 20.0 19.5
Finland 14.1 8.7 9.7 14.9 11.2 11.8 11.9 10.4 10.7 10.4 9.6 9.7 10.6 11.6 11.5
France 24.0 5.9 9.7 19.0 6.2 8.3 15.9 9.2 10.4 12.1 8.3 8.9 14.6 9.3 10.1
Germany 7.3 13.7 12.9 8.5 11.2 10.8 6.1 9.1 8.7 10.3 10.6 10.6 4.7 11.1 10.1
Greece 11.3 7.5 8.3 21.8 10.9 12.7 16.2 9.9 11.2 15.3 12.6 13
Hungary 4.9 6.8 6.4 8.9 7.4 7.7 11.8 10.2 10.6 23.6 12.5 14.6 10.4 8.7 9
Iceland 23.3 14.3 16.4
Ireland 21.0 9.9 12.4 15.9 11.9 12.9 28.5 14.7 18.0 38.5 19.9 23.2 18.2 18.1 18.1
Israel 14.4 10.6 11.6 21.0 15.1 16.6 15.0 14.4 14.6
Italy 4.5 1.7 2.1 5.3 4.0 4.2
Latvia 9.0 13.3 12.2 17.4 17.8 17.8
Lithuania 15.7 30.8 27.7 16.5 16.5 16.5
Luxembourg 5.6 5.9 5.8 3.8 3.5 3.6
Netherlands 4.9 2.5 3.0 4.6 4.0 4.1 7.3 4.3 4.8 3.1 2.1 2.3 5.9 3.6 3.9
Norway 4.9 5.8 5.6 18.4 8.0 9.6 13.5 8.4 9.4 10.6 6.6 7.3 10.9 12.5 12.2
Poland 8.7 1.8 3.6 9.5 3.4 5.0 11.4 4.4 6.3 11.9 3.0 5.5 11.6 3.3 5.4
Portugal 4.7 0.9 1.9 3.9 2.5 2.9 4.7 1.7 2.3 7.3 1.9 2.9 9.0 3.5 4.5
Romania 8.1 8.9 8.7 14.5 9.0 10.1
Russian
Federation
24.6 34.2 32.1 32.8 34 33.7 26.4 34.4 32.6
Slovakia 8.3 8.9 8.7 6.6 9.6 8.9 12.7 9.4 10 11.7 11 11.1
Slovenia 7.5 4.6 5.3 9.2 3.9 5.1 6.0 7.5 7.2 14.5 11.5 12.3 14.4 9.2 10.1
Spain 14.8 7.4 9.2 13.1 7.3 8.8 14.7 7.8 9.7 12.4 9.3 10 12.7 11.4 11.6
Sweden 4.3 3.6 3.7 7.0 4.6 5.0 8.8 5.0 5.6 7.9 4.3 4.9 11.1 6.3 7.0
Switzerland 4.7 6.5 6.2 7.6 9.7 9.4 4.0 5.3 5.1 4.6 5.6 5.4 3.7 10.4 9.2
Turkey 5.8 5.7 5.8 8.0 7.6 7.7
United Kingdom 9.4 5.6 6.4 11.2 6.4 7.6 19.9 12.0 13.7 12.0 12.8 12.6 24.0 12.9 15.1
Ukraine 38.3 34.6 35.3 40.2 32.5 34.0 20.3 28.4 26.6 30.0 27.7 28.1

Souice: IL0 calculations baseu on the Euiopean Social Suivey (Noiwegian Social Science Bata Seivices,
2uu2; 2uu4; 2uu6; 2uu8; 2u1u).

4u

Table5.Incidenceofundereducationbyagegroup(%)

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Y
o
u
n
g

(
1
5
-
2
9
)

M
a
t
u
r
e

(
3
0
+
)

T
o
t
a
l

Y
o
u
n
g

(
1
5
-
2
9
)

M
a
t
u
r
e

(
3
0
+
)

T
o
t
a
l

Y
o
u
n
g

(
1
5
-
2
9
)

M
a
t
u
r
e

(
3
0
+
)

T
o
t
a
l

Y
o
u
n
g

(
1
5
-
2
9
)

M
a
t
u
r
e

(
3
0
+
)

T
o
t
a
l

Y
o
u
n
g

(
1
5
-
2
9
)

M
a
t
u
r
e

(
3
0
+
)

T
o
t
a
l

Austria 38.1 45.0 43.8 43.0 33.9 35.5 40.2 40.1 40.1 31.1 35.9 34.7
Belgium 24.7 28.9 27.9 19.8 29.3 27.2 29.2 29.5 29.4 18 29.2 27.2 24.0 24.1 24.1
Bulgaria 21.2 21.6 21.5 21.0 23.7 23.4 18.1 20.1 19.9
Croatia 13.6 17.1 16.3 6.3 17.5 15.5
Cyprus 11.6 22.3 19.8 8.9 24.4 20.6 10.8 20.7 18.6
Czech Republic 25.8 24.3 24.5 23.9 27.7 27.1 28.8 25.7 26.3 18.2 20.8 20.3
Denmark 28.3 25.6 26.0 25.0 16.8 18.2 31.8 20.9 22.2 33.1 19.6 21.5 38.6 23.9 25.6
Estonia 25.9 24.4 24.7 30.5 24.7 25.9 32.9 29.6 30.2 23.7 20.4 21.0
Finland 16.5 34.6 31.2 21.3 27.1 26.2 19.4 23.9 23.0 16.4 24.5 23.1 18.4 23.1 22.4
France 9.6 31.7 27.0 15.4 34.9 31.7 11.4 28.3 25.3 22.8 28.5 27.5 16.6 32.2 29.7
Germany 34.4 22.6 24.2 33.0 24.1 25.4 33.4 25 26.3 29.9 23.8 24.6 44.2 21.3 24.9
Greece 33.8 48.2 45.2 18.1 38.3 34.9 24.4 37.3 34.6 18.1 30.6 28.7
Hungary 21.5 24.1 23.6 24.2 24.3 24.3 17.3 12.5 13.5 16.9 21.7 20.8 5.5 6.9 6.6
Iceland 34.9 30.0 31.1
Ireland 25.4 38.6 35.6 21.9 42.0 36.9 20.9 32.4 29.6 10.5 28.3 25.1 16.6 23.7 22.1
Israel 31.2 31.4 31.4 22.9 28.4 27 24.2 27.3 26.5
Italy 45.2 54.7 53.3 35.9 45.5 43.8
Latvia 25.1 19.4 20.9 13.5 16.8 16.3
Lithuania 12.4 7.5 8.5 13.1 15.4 15.1
Luxembourg 39.2 41.3 40.9 39.6 45.4 43.8
Netherlands 46.5 53.5 52.1 41.3 49.0 47.6 49.1 48.4 48.5 39.7 49.2 47.4 45 48.2 47.7
Norway 14.3 25.1 23.1 13.0 24.3 22.5 9.5 21.8 19.4 15.0 20.2 19.3 16 15.4 15.5
Poland 46.6 58.6 55.6 41.5 54.7 51.1 34.9 54.2 48.9 34.7 49.1 45.1 23.2 45.9 40.1
Portugal 58.7 64.2 62.8 55.7 62.4 60.9 50.9 57.2 55.9 42.9 57.6 54.8 36.6 58.9 54.9
Romania 31.1 26.1 27.1 29.4 34.3 33.3
Russian
Federation
11.8 8.6 9.3 8.1 6.5 6.8 9.1 8.3 8.5
Slovakia 22.3 27.9 26.6 17.8 27.8 25.5 22.2 23.8 23.6 27.5 19.4 20.6
Slovenia 20.1 33 29.9 20.6 27.5 25.9 23.3 26.5 25.8 24.8 26.9 26.4 20.2 21.9 21.6
Spain 37.2 45.6 43.6 40.7 45.1 44.1 46.3 43.4 44.2 42.8 42.6 42.6 35.8 35.5 35.5
Sweden 21.5 39.6 36.9 18.2 35.4 32.5 18.7 34.0 31.6 16.3 33.0 30.0 19.7 25.3 24.5
Switzerland 47.4 32.6 34.9 33.6 31.5 31.8 34.4 31.4 31.9 35.8 34.3 34.6 42.2 26.3 29.2
Turkey 43.8 54.1 50.4 48.4 58.1 55.2
United Kingdom 45.4 47.8 47.3 34.4 48.5 45.1 35.7 36.8 36.6 32.3 33.9 33.6 25.5 34.1 32.4
Ukraine 4.0 4.7 4.6 5.5 5.3 5.4 10.0 7.1 7.8 2.4 2.4 2.4

2uu2; 2uu4; 2uu6; 2uu8; 2u1u).

41

0veieuucation incieaseu in the sample of countiies fiom 2uu2 to 2u1u by 2.6
peicentage points. uiven the fact that the assessment of skills mismatch is baseu on the
Inteinational Classification of 0ccupations, an inciease in oveieuucation ovei time in
pait ieflects an inciease in the euucational attainment levels of woikeis. Bowevei, the
shaip iise between 2uu8 anu 2u1u (by 1.S peicentage points) is likely to also ieflect
incieaseu competition foi jobs associateu with the employment ciisis. In paiticulai,
lowskilleu nonmanual jobs aie incieasingly taken by woikeis with a teitiaiy
euucation (figuie 11).

0nueieuucation uecieaseu in the sample of countiies acioss all age gioups. Fiom 2uu2
to 2u1u, unueieuucation uecieaseu by 7.7 peicentage points, which again paitly ieflects
an inciease in woikeis euucational attainment levels. But similai to oveieuucation, the
uownwaiu tienu in unueieuucation acceleiateu in the two most iecent suivey yeais.
Like the stiong inciease in oveieuucation, the laige ueciease in unueieuucation (by 2.9
peicentage points) is consistent with an inciease in competition foi jobs between 2uu8
anu 2u1u.

Overeducationisincreasingandundereducationisdecreasingacrossallage
groups.
Figure11.Averageincidenceofskillsmismatch(allagegroups,%)

A. Overeducation B. Undereducation

2uu2; 2uu4; 2uu6; 2uu8; 2u1u).
Note: The figuie shows unweighteu aveiages baseu on uata fiom countiies appeaiing in all five ESS
iounus (Belgium, Benmaik, Finlanu, Fiance, ueimany, Bungaiy, Iielanu, the Netheilanus, Noiway,
Polanu, Poitugal, Slovenia, Spain, Sweuen, Switzeilanu, anu the 0niteu Kinguom); the shaueu aiea shows
the iange of inciuence acioss countiies. Labelleu points outsiue shaueu aieas iepiesent countiies that
have a significantly uiffeient inciuence of skills mismatch fiom othei countiies in a paiticulai iounu.
These outlieis have an inciuence eithei above p
75
+ 1.S IR oi below p
25
-1.S IR, wheie p
25
anu p
75

aie, iespectively, 2Sth anu 7Sth peicentiles of the inciuence uistiibution in a given iounu anu IQR is the
inteiquaitile iange (i.e. p
75
- p
25
). The outlieis aie excluueu fiom the aveiage values.

42

Overeducationisincreasingandundereducationisdecreasingforyouth.
Figure12.Averageincidenceofskillsmismatch(agegroup1529,%)


2uu2; 2uu4; 2uu6; 2uu8; 2u1u).
Polanu, Poitugal, Slovenia, Spain, Sweuen, Switzeilanu, anu the 0niteu Kinguom); the shaueu aiea shows
the iange of inciuence acioss countiies. Labelleu points outsiue shaueu aieas iepiesent countiies that
have a significantly uiffeient inciuence of mismatch fiom othei countiies in a paiticulai iounu. These
outlieis have an inciuence eithei above p
75
+ 1.S IR oi below p
25
- 1.S IR, wheie p
25
anu p
75
aie,
iespectively, 2Sth anu 7Sth peicentiles of the inciuence uistiibution in a given iounu anu IQR is the
inteiquaitile iange (i.e. p
75
- p
25
). The outlieis aie excluueu fiom the aveiage values.

Skills mismatch uynamics foi the young (ageu 1S29) aie somewhat uiffeient fiom the
pictuie those acioss all age gioups. Theie aie gieatei uiffeiences acioss countiies, even
if extieme cases aie excluueu fiom the analysis (figuie 12). Between 2uu2 anu 2u1u
youth oveieuucation incieaseu by 1.S peicentage points, but theie was a uecline fiom
2uu4 to 2uu8. Similai to the pattein acioss all age gioups, youth oveieuucation
incieaseu stiongly uuiing the height of the economic ciisis fiom 2uu8 to 2u1u (by 1.4
peicentage points), but unlike the tienu acioss all age gioups youth unueieuucation
also incieaseu (by u.S peicentage points, compaieu with a ueciease by S.4 peicentage
points uuiing 2uu2 to 2u1u). The inciease in unueieuucation fiom 2uu8 to 2u1u may be
uue to changes in the occupational stiuctuie, in paiticulai less giowth of unskilleu
occupations taken by youth.

4S

Overeducationismoreprevalentamongyoungwomenthanyoungmenwhile
undereducationaffectsyoungmenmore.
Figure13.Averageincidenceofskillsmismatchbysexandagegroup(%)


2uu2; 2uu4; 2uu6; 2uu8; 2u1u).
Polanu, Poitugal, Slovenia, Spain, Sweuen, Switzeilanu, anu the 0K). Countiies that have significantly
uiffeient skills mismatch inciuence fiom othei countiies in that iounu in at least one of foui categoiies
compaieu (young males, young females, matuie males, anu matuie females) aie excluueu fiom the
calculation of the aveiages in that iounu. These outlieis have inciuence eithei above p
75
+1.S IR oi
below p
25
-1.S IR, wheie p
25
anu p
75
aie, iespectively, 2Sth anu 7Sth peicentiles of the inciuence
uistiibution in a given iounu anu IQR is the inteiquaitile iange (i.e. p
75
- p
25
). The outlieis aie Belgium
(iounu S), Benmaik (iounu 1), ueimany (iounu 1), Bungaiy (iounu 4), Iielanu (iounus SS), anu the 0K
(iounu S).

Consiueiing genuei uiffeientials in skills mismatch, acioss age gioups it is founu that
women aie moie fiequently oveieuucateu anu less fiequently unueieuucateu than men,
anu that both iesults appeai to be stable ovei time (figuie 1S). This is consistent with
stuuies of the ueteiminants of oveieuucation, which often concluue that women have a
highei skills mismatch iisk than men. Such genuei uiffeientials may be attiibutable to
seveial factois, incluuing uiffeiences in euucational attainment between men anu
women, tiauitional genuei ioles anu piessuies on women to take caiing ioles anu to
ieconcile woik anu family life, while uisciimination may also play a iole. Anothei
explanatoiy factoi might be that some fielus of stuuy in which women aie stiongly
iepiesenteu, such as economics, law anu aits anu humanities aie moie likely to be
exposeu to oveieuucation in the laboui maiket (Baione anu 0itiz, 2u1u; Betti et al.,
2u11; Cutillo anu Bi Pietio, 2uu6; }auhiainen, 2u11; Wiiz anu Atukeien, 2uuS).

44

Figuie 1S also shows that on aveiage the young often face a highei oveieuucation iisk
anu a lowei unueieuucation iisk than those ageu Su anu above, although the uiffeience
hau mostly uisappeaieu foi men in 2u1u.

Consiueiing countiyspecific tienus in skills mismatch (as opposeu to aveiages), we
finu that oveieuucation foi youth consistently incieaseu in five countiies, anu
uecieaseu only in uieece.
26
Tienus in unueieuucation aie less cleaicut, as
unueieuucation consistently incieaseu in foui countiies anu uecieaseu in seven (table
6).
Table6.Countryleveltrendsinyouth(aged1529)mismatchincidence
Overeducationtrend Undereducationtrend
Increasing Decreasing Increasing Decreasing
Austria *
Bulgaria * *
Denmark * *
Estonia *
Greece *
Hungary *
Norway *
Poland *
Portugal * *
Slovakia *
Slovenia *
Spain *
Switzerland *
UK *
Tienus aie shown only if founu in all five iounus, oi in the last foui obseivable iounus, oi in iounus SS.
Note: See Annex C, table CS foi full table.

In conclusion, this section suggests that the global economic ciisis hau a majoi impact
on skills mismatch, anu in paiticulai on oveieuucation. Young people with a high level
of euucation incieasingly take up employment that iequiies lowei levels of euucation,
which is likely to be uue, at least in pait, to the scaicity of jobs.
3.3 Explainingemploymentandskillsmismatch

This section piesents some specific factois that affect skills mismatch, baseu on a
micioeconometiic mouel that examines the coiielation between the piobability of
mismatch anu an inuiviuuals peisonal anu family chaiacteiistics, laboui maiket
expeiience anu the following macio laboui maiket vaiiables: (1) the shaie of teitiaiy
giauuates in youth employment, (2) the youth unemployment iate, anu (S) the shaie of

26
Seveial factois may have contiibuteu to the exceptional tienu in uieece, incluuing changes in the
occupational stiuctuie uue to the impact of the economic ciisis, anu migiation of woikeis. Examination of
these factois is beyonu the scope of the cuiient iepoit.
4S

the employeu woiking in highskilleu nonmanual occupations. The methouology is
uetaileu in Annex F, anu the uata aie again fiom the Euiopean Social Suivey, iounus 1
thiough S (Noiwegian Social Science Bata Seivices, 2uu2; 2uu4; 2uu6; 2uu8; 2u1u).
Table 7 piesents the iesults foi the coiielates foi oveieuucation anu table 8 piesents
the iesults foi coiielates foi unueieuucation (see tables C4 anu CS foi moie uetaileu
iesults).

3.3.1 Theimpactofmacrofactorsonskillsmismatch

Results suggest that two of the maciolevel factois cause a sizeable pait of skills
mismatch uevelopment ovei time. A highei shaie of teitiaiy giauuates incieases the
inciuence of oveieuucation, anu uecieases the inciuence of unueieuucation. It appeais
that an inciease in the numbei of teitiaiy giauuates cieates stiongei competition anu
theiefoie incieases the chances of oveieuucation. The shaie of employeu woiking in
highskilleu nonmanual occupations has a negative effect on oveieuucation iisk anu a
positive effect on unueieuucation iisk.

Peihaps suipiisingly, the unemployment iate peifoims weakly as a skills mismatch iisk
pieuictoi. It incieases the iisk of oveieuucation foi men (both young anu matuie),
ieinfoicing the aigument that the employment ciisis incieaseu job competition, but not
foi women. A highei unemployment iate also uecieases the iisk of unueieuucation foi
matuie men, but uoes not affect the iisk of unueieuucation foi women. It thus appeais
that, in teims of maciolevel vaiiables, inuiviuual skills mismatch is mainly affecteu by
the occupational anu euucational uistiibution of the employeu.

46

Table7.Selectedovereducationmodelresultsforyouth
M
a
l
e
F
e
m
.
T
o
t
a
l
Macrolevelfactors
Tertiarygraduates,share
Unemploymentrate
ISCO13,share
Demographics
Age
Age
2
/100
Young
Female
Numberofchildren(relativetonochildren)
1
2
3+
Partneremploymentstatus(relativetonopartner)
Unemployed
Employed
Supervisingothers
Immigrantbackground(relativetononimmigrant)
Minority
Parentimmigrant
Bothparentsimmigrants
Potentiallynegativefactors
Student
Disabled
Wasunempl.for3months
Wasunemployedfor1year
Informalemployment
Note: Reu cells show significant negative effects (ouus iatios < 1), gieen cells show significant positive
effects (ouus iatios > 1), white cells show insignificant effects, anu giey cells show vaiiables not incluueu
in a given mouel.

47

Table8.Selectedundereducationmodelresultsforyouth
M
a
l
e
F
e
m
.
T
o
t
a
l
Macrolevelfactors
Tertiarygraduates,share
Unemploymentrate
ISCO13,share
Demographics
Age
Age
2
/100
Young
Female
1
2
3+
Unemployed
Employed
Supervisingothers
Minority
Oneparentimmigrant
Bothparentsimmigrants
Student
Disabled
Wasunempl.for3months
Wasunemployedfor1year
Informalemployment
Note: Reu cells show significant negative effects (ouus iatios < 1), gieen cells show significant positive
effects (ouus iatios > 1), white cells show insignificant effects, anu giey cells show vaiiables not
paiticipating in a given mouel.

48

3.3.2 Theimpactofgender,age,immigrantbackgroundanddisabilityon
mismatch

The mouels show that youth (ageu 1S29) aie significantly moie exposeu to
oveieuucation iisk than matuie woikeis (ageu Su anu above) anu aie significantly less
likely to be unueieuucateu. The iesults also uemonstiate that, in accoiuance with the
uesciiptive statistics uiscusseu befoie, women aie moie fiequently oveieuucateu than
men. At the same time, women (of all age gioups) aie less pione to unueieuucation.
These iesults suggest that women aie moie likely to be in a loweilevel occupation than
they shoulu be.

Among migiants, young women aie at a uisauvantage, but young men aie less likely to
become oveieuucateu if they have one immigiant paient. Young men with a migiant
backgiounu uo face a highei exposuie to unueieuucation.

Bisability incieases the iisk of oveieuucation foi young men anu matuie women.
Bisability also incieases the iisk of unueieuucation foi young women anu matuie men.

3.3.3 Theimpactoffamilycharacteristicsonskillsmismatch

Contiaiy to what coulu peihaps have been expecteu, having chiluien makes young
people less vulneiable to oveieuucation. Bowevei, young people with a chilu
consistently face a highei iisk of unueieuucation.

Baving a paitnei, whatevei his oi hei employment status, uecieases the oveieuucation
iisk foi matuie men anu women. It also ieuuces the iisk of oveieuucation foi young
men. Living with a paitnei usually iaises the iisk of unueieuucation.

3.3.4 Theimpactoflabourmarketexperienceonskillsmismatch

Young people who stuuy in paiallel to woiking expeiience incieaseu iisk of
oveieuucation, anu also incieaseu iisk of unueieuucation. The fact that unueieuucation
is coiielateu with leaining activities seems intuitively cleai, but the coiielation with
oveieuucation is moie uifficult to explain.

Baving expeiienceu meuiumteim unemployment incieases the iisk of oveieuucation
anu uecieases the iisk of unueieuucation (except foi young women). Longteim
unemployment has the same effect on oveieuucation as meuiumteim unemployment,
but uoes not affect the young. The effects on unueieuucation aie uiffeient, as
unemployment incieases the exposuie of the young both men anu women anu
matuie men.

Infoimal employment, uefineu as woik without a (wiitten) contiact, consistently
incieases the exposuie to oveieuucation of the young as well as the matuie. Again, the
effect on unueieuucation is uiffeient foi men anu women. It has a geneially negative
effect foi women (both young anu matuie) anu a positive effect foi matuie men.

49
4. Youthlabourmarketsindevelopingeconomies:Preliminary
evidencefromtheILOschooltoworktransitionsurveys

4.1 Introduction

Young people face seveial challenges when enteiing the laboui maiket, paiticulaily in
ueveloping economies. Not only uo they neeu to finu a job, anu piefeiably one that
coiiesponus to theii level of qualifications, they also want to uevelop a founuation foi a
lasting, stable employment ielationship that helps them to piogiess in life. To
chaiacteiize these challenges anu to suppoit policymakeis in uesigning auequate
instiuments to suppoit the tiansition of young people into employment, the IL0 has
uevelopeu its schooltowoik tiansition suivey (SWTS), a householu suivey of young
people ageu 1S29 yeais.
27
This chaptei anu Chaptei S piesent iesults foi ten countiies,
baseu on suiveys conuucteu in 2u12 within the scope of the IL0s Woik4Youth
paitneiship with The NasteiCaiu Founuation (box 4).
28

The Woik4Youth paitneiship aims to stiengthen the piouuction of laboui maiket
infoimation specific to youth anu to woik with policymakeis on the inteipietation of
uata, incluuing on tiansitions to the laboui maiket, foi the uesign oi monitoiing of
youth employment policies anu piogiammes. Results fiom suiveys in the iemaining 18
taiget countiies will be maue available thioughout 2u1S. The list of taiget countiies is
pioviueu in box 4. A seconu iounu of SWTS will take place in each of the 28 countiies in
2u141S.

Section 4.2 uiscusses the challenges of measuiing youth employment in ueveloping
countiies. It also intiouuces the justification behinu the call foi implementation of moie
uetaileu measuies anu measuiement tools to look at youth laboui maikets in
ueveloping economies. Section 4.S pioviues a statistical poitiait of youth laboui
maikets in ten ueveloping countiies, showing how, foi many young people, iegulai
employment iemains a uieam, with the ieality moie likely to be employment in a low
quality job.

27
While in othei contexts, a young peison is uefineu as a peison ageu 1S24 yeais, foi the puipose of the
SWTS the uppei age bounu is extenueu to 29 yeais. This is in iecognition of the fact that some young
people iemain in euucation beyonu the age of 24 so that the age extension will theiefoie captuie moie
infoimation on the postgiauuation employment expeiience of young people.
28
The ten countiies uiscusseu in Chapteis 4 anu S aie: Aimenia, Cambouia, Egypt, Foimei Yugoslav
Republic of Naceuonia (hencefoith, FYR Naceuonia), }oiuan, Libeiia, Nalawi, Peiu, Russian Feueiation
anu Togo. Bata foi all ten available SWTSs to uate aie piesenteu in Annex B. Both iaw anu tabulateu uata
will be maue available in a foithcoming uatabase. Betaileu summations of the finuings with conclusions
anu policy iecommenuations will be maue available in national iepoits foi each of the SWTS countiies.
The publication seiies Laboui maiket tiansitions of young men anu women will be auueu to the
Woik4Youth website at www.ilo.oigw4y. The fiist foieseen iepoits on Libeiia anu the FYR Naceuonia
will be available as of Nay 2u1S.

Su
4.2 Measuringandanalysingyouthlabourmarketsindeveloping
economies

A piincipal theme of this chaptei is that laboui maikets in ueveloping economies uo not
look like those in uevelopeu economies. Beveloping economies have an abunuance of
laboui, a scaicity of capital anu a staik uuality between the shiinking but still uominant
tiauitional economies anu the mouein economies (stiongly manifesteu acioss iuial
anu uiban geogiaphies) (Campbell, 2u1S). Nonstanuaiu foims of employment foi
example, woik in infoimal enteipiises, casual uay laboui anu householu piouuction
activities aie common; fai moie common than foimal woik, with fixeu contiact,
iegulai pay anu entitlements, in a piivate enteipiise.

The SWTS analytical fiamewoik has been built aiounu uisaggiegateu anu nuanceu
inuicatois that highlight the specific laboui maiket challenges of youth in ueveloping
economies. The emphasis is placeu on quantification of aieas of nonstanuaiu
employment anu laboui unueiutilization in oiuei to bettei captuie the iealities of youth
laboui maikets in ueveloping economies. The piefeience within the SWTS fiamewoik is
to look not at links to economic piouuction, but iathei at links to the economic well
being of the youth population.
29
The inuicatois shoulu be able to geneiate infoimation
conceining whethei oi not young people aie achieving what they expect fiom the
laboui maiket.

Box4.Work4Youth:AnILOprojectinpartnershipwithTheMasterCardFoundation
The Woik4Youth (W4Y) pioject is a paitneiship between the IL0 Youth Employment
Piogiamme anu The NasteiCaiu Founuation. The pioject has a buuget of 0S$14.6 million anu
will iun foi five yeais to miu2u16. Its aim is to piomot|ej uecent woik oppoitunities foi
young men anu women thiough knowleuge anu action. The immeuiate objective of the
paitneiship is to piouuce moie anu bettei laboui maiket infoimation specific to youth in
ueveloping countiies, focusing in paiticulai on tiansition paths to the laboui maiket. The
assumption is that goveinments anu social paitneis in the piojects 28 taiget countiies will be
bettei piepaieu to uesign effective policy anu piogiamme initiatives once aimeu with uetaileu
infoimation on:
what young people expect in teims of tiansition paths anu quality of woik;
what employeis expect in teims of young applicants;
what issues pievent the two siues supply anu uemanu fiom matching; anu
what policies anu piogiammes can have a realimpact.

Woik4Youth taiget countiies:
Su

AsiaandthePacific: Banglauesh, Cambouia, Nepal, Samoa, viet Nam
Eastern Europe and Central Asia: Aimenia, Kyigyzstan, FYR Naceuonia, Republic of
Noluova, Russian Feueiation, 0kiaine

29
The SWTS analytical fiamewoik was uesigneu with an eye on the cuiient effoits to auapt the
inteinational fiamewoik of statistics on the economically active population. The foithcoming
Inteinational Confeience of Laboui Statisticians, to be helu in ueneva in 0ctobei 2u1S anu leu by the IL0
Bepaitment of Statistics, will uiscuss a compiehensive ieview of the stanuaiu guiuelines on how we
measuie the economically active population anu its subcomponents. The status of the uiscussion anu
iationale behinu the iefoims aie summaiizeu in IL0 (2u1Sc).
Su
The final (28th) Woik4Youth countiy has not yet been iuentifieu.

S1
LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean: Biazil, Colombia, El Salvauoi, }amaica, Peiu
MiddleEastandNorthAfrica: Egypt, }oiuan, Tunisia
SubSaharan Africa: Benin, Libeiia, Nauagascai, Nalawi, Togo, 0ganua, 0niteu Republic of
Tanzania, Zambia

4.2.1 Thedichotomyofyouthlabourmarketsindevelopedanddeveloping
economies

Figuie 14 suggests how laboui maiket expeiiences anu the quality of jobs foi young
people uiffei significantly between uevelopeu anu ueveloping countiies. It compaies
aggiegate uata on youth laboui maiket situations fiom foui leastuevelopeu countiies
(LBCs) Cambouia, Libeiia, Nalawi anu Togo with aggiegate uata fiom foui high
income Euiopean countiies (Belgium, Fiance, the Netheilanus anu Poitugal). The two
gioups aie piesenteu accoiuing to the uistiibution of the youth population in the
following foui categoiies: (a) iegulai employment, uefineu as wage anu salaiieu
woikeis holuing a contiact of unlimiteu uuiation (in the case of highincome countiies)
oi a contiact of uuiation gieatei than 12 months (in the case of the LBCs) plus self
employeu youth with employees (employeis);
S1
(b) iiiegulai employment, uefineu as
wage anu salaiieu woikeis holuing a contiact of limiteu uuiation, i.e. set to teiminate
aftei a peiiou of time (less than 12 months in the case of the LBCs anu unuefineu in the
case of the highincome economies), selfemployeu youth with no employees (own
account woikeis) anu contiibuting family woikeis; (c) unemployeu (ielaxeu uefinition),
uefineu as peisons cuiiently without woik anu available to take up woik in the week
piioi to the iefeience peiiou; anu (u) the iesiuual inactive youth.

S1
Regulai employment anu iiiegulai employment as useu thioughout the section iequiie uata on status
in employment anu employment by contiact type anu uuiation.

S2
Levelsofeconomicdevelopmentarereflectedinthesharesofyoungpeoplein
irregularemploymentandinactivity.
Figure14.Distributionofyouthpopulationbyregularandirregularemployment,
unemployment(relaxeddefinition)andinactivityforfourleastdevelopedcountries
(LDCs)andfourhighincomecountries(%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Regular
employed
Irregular
employed
Relaxed
unemployed
Inactive
Leastdevelopedcountries(4) Highincomecountries(4)

Note: Bata aie simple aveiages acioss shaies in the two gioups of countiies. The foui LBCs aie Cambouia,
Libeiia, Nalawi anu Togo. The foui highincome countiies selecteu Belgium, Fiance, the Netheilanus
anu Poitugal have a cumulative youth population similai to that of the foui LBCs.
Souices: IL0 calculations baseu on SWTS in Cambouia, Libeiia, Nalawi anu Togo, 2u12, anu E0R0STAT,
Euiopean Laboui Foice Suivey (ELFS), online uatabase, vaiious tables, 2u12.

Two conclusions can be uiawn fiom the figuie. Fiist, the main uiffeiences between
youth in ueveloping economies anu in uevelopeu economies aie in the shaies of
iiiegulai employment anu inactivity. Seconu, unemployment iates aie iemaikably
similai when using the ielaxeu uefinition. The explanation behinu the vaiiations
between the shaies in iiiegulai employment anu inactivity is to be founu in the levels of
euucational attainment. In uevelopeu economies, most young people go to school anu
complete at least seconuaiylevel euucation. In ueveloping economies, euucational
eniolment iates iemain low anu euucational attainment levels aie still extiemely low,
with still only small piopoitions attaining a seconuaiy euucation qualification. The
aveiage euucational attainment iates among the young population in Cambouia, Libeiia,
Nalawi anu Togo in 2u12 weie: 62.2 pei cent with completeu piimaiy level euucation
oi lowei, SS.7 pei cent with completeu seconuaiy level euucation, anu 4.1 pei cent with
a higheilevel uegiee.

In uevelopeu economies, most stuuents engage in euucation full time anu aie iecoiueu
in the statistics as economically inactive, pushing the inactivity iate in highincome
countiies up to Su.S pei cent. In many ueveloping economies, the majoiity of the young
people who might otheiwise be stuuying if boin in a uevelopeu economy aie insteau
engageu in iiiegulai employment (49.6 pei cent). Anu within the categoiy of iiiegulai
employment, most (8S.u pei cent) aie ownaccount woikeis anu contiibuting family
woikeis. In contiast, of those in iiiegulai employment in the uevelopeu economies, nine
out of ten engage in tempoiaiy wage employment. The iemaining one in ten engages in
selfemployment.

SS
Within the analytical fiamewoik of the SWTS, the ielaxeu uefinition of unemployment
is piefeiieu. 0nemployment as uefineu accoiuing to the inteinational stanuaius
iequiies a peison to meet thiee ciiteiia foi inclusion: they (a) uiu not woik in the
iefeience peiiou, (b) weie available to take up a job hau one been offeieu in the week
piioi to the iefeience peiiou, anu (c) actively sought woik within the past Su uays (foi
example, by iegisteiing at an employment centie oi answeiing a job auveitisement).
The uiffeience in the ielaxeu uefinition of unemployment (also known as bioau
unemployment) anu the stiict uefinition is in the ielaxation of the seeking woik
ciiteiion (c). Accoiuing to the inteinational stanuaius, the seeking woik ciiteiion may
be ielaxeu in situations wheie the conventional means of seeking woik aie of limiteu
ielevance, wheie the laboui maiket is laigely unoiganizeu oi of limiteu scope, wheie
laboui absoiption is, at the time, inauequate oi wheie the laboui foice is laigely self
employeu.
S2

In most uevelopeu economies, a young peison has to piove that they have actively
sought woik by iegisteiing at an employment centie oi applying foi job vacancies, foi
example to qualify foi unemployment benefits. veiy few ueveloping economies offei
unemployment benefits to theii populations. Young people, theiefoie, have little
motivation to actively seek woik when they feel theie is none ieauily available anu
wheie laboui maikets aie highly infoimal. A peison without woik is moie likely to wait
foi woiuofmouth infoimal connections to leau to occasional woik than to engage in an
active job seaich. Relaxing the active job seaich ciiteiion fiom the unemployment
uefinition can have a significant impact on iesults in lowincome economies that lack
social piotection. The aggiegate unemployment iate (ielaxeu uefinition) foi the foui
LBCs comes to 2u.7 pei cent. This is moie than uouble the iesult given when incluuing
an active job seaich as ciiteiion foi the uefinition of unemployeu (aggiegate
unemployment iate (stiict uefinition) is 9.S pei cent).

These iesults unueiline the piemise that ielaxing the active seaich ciiteiion in the
measuiement of unemployment makes a substantial uiffeience to the iesults anu theii
inteipietation.
SS
The figuie uemonstiate that joblessness among young people is a
significant issue in lowincome economies, even moie so given the lack of available
social piotection. In fact, the unemployeu shaie (ielaxeu uefinition) in the gioup of
leastuevelopeu countiies in oui sample is even highei than that of the highincome
countiies (1S.2 anu 12.1 pei cent, iespectively).

4.2.2 Alternativeframeworkforportrayingyouthlabourmarketsindeveloping
economies

As stateu above, the SWTS analytical fiamewoik has been built aiounu uisaggiegateu
anu nuanceu inuicatois that attempt to emphasize aieas of nonstanuaiu employment
anu laboui unueiutilization. Compaiing stanuaiu laboui maiket inuicatois those
ieflecting only the volume of bioau categoiies of economic activity with a gieatei
uisaggiegation of inuicatois available thiough the access to the SWTS micio uatasets
allows us to uiaw a moie uetaileu pictuie of challenges that youth face in ueveloping

S2
Resolution conceining statistics of the economically active population, employment, unemployment
anu unueiemployment, auopteu by the 1Sth Inteinational Confeience of Laboui Statisticians, 0ctobei
1982.
SS
See also Spaiieboom (1999).

S4
economies. In Aimenia, foi instance, the tiauitional uistiibution of the youth population
acioss thiee bioau categoiies of economic activity employment, unemployment anu
inactivity inuicates that 1S.S pei cent of Aimenian youth aie cuiiently unemployeu
(see figuie 1S, left panel). 0nethiiu of Aimenian youth aie in employment, but the
laigest shaie, S6.1 pei cent, is inactive. This suggests that the majoiity of the 1S29 age
gioup in Aimenia aie still in school anu so classifieu among the inactive. The pioblem
aiises when they exit school, when they aie likely to face lengthy peiious of
unemployment befoie settling into a job.

In contiast, when using moie nuanceu inuicatois of the youth laboui maiket in
Aimenia, a moie negative pictuie emeiges. The uisaggiegation confiims that the
majoiity of the inactive aie in school, but that anothei 1S.4 pei cent of youth aie neithei
in the laboui foice noi in euucation oi tiaining (NLFET).
S4
These youth aie neithei
contiibuting to economic piouuction noi investing in theii human capital thiough
engagement in euucation oi tiaining, although it is impoitant to note the contiibution of
youth staying at home voluntaiily to caie foi theii chiluien anu householus. In auuition,
1u.1 pei cent of young people aie confineu to iiiegulai employment anu 16.8 pei cent of
youth face unemployment accoiuing to the ielaxeu uefinition (see the uefinitions in
section 4.2.1). This suggests that insteau of theie being an unutilizeu laboui potential of
1S.S pei cent, policymakeis shoulu be woiiieu that as much as 42.S pei cent of youth
can be consiueieu as falling in the categoiy of unueiutilizeu laboui.
SS
In othei woius,
the taiget aiea foi monitoiing anu evaluating potential pioblems in the youth laboui
maiket has moie than tiipleu in size.

S4
The categoiy is similai to the NEETs piesenteu in Chaptei 2 but with the exclusion of the unemployeu.
SS
The laboui unueiutilization iate is calculateu as the sum of the shaies of youth in iiiegulai
employment, unemployeu (ielaxeu uefinition) anu neithei in the laboui foice noi in euucationtiaining
(inactive nonstuuents).

SS
Onlythenewframeworkidentifiesthefullextentoftheunderutilizedyouth
populationindevelopingeconomies.
Figure15.Comparingthetraditionalandalternativeframeworkoflabourmarketstatusin
ArmeniaandTogo
A
r
m
e
n
i
a

Traditionalframework

Alternativeframework
T
o
g
o
Souice: SWTS, Aimenia anu Togo, 2u12.

When the uetaileu categoiization is applieu to a lowincome ueveloping economy such
as Togo, the laboui maiket pictuie changes moie uiamatically. It is heie that the neeu to
move beyonu tiauitional laboui maiket categoiizations becomes cleaiei. The left panel
in figuie 1S shows that in Togo, 62.4 pei cent of young people aie woiking, only S.u pei
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Employed
Inactive
Unemployed
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Regular
employed
Inactive
students
Inactivenon
students
Relaxed
unemployed
Irregular
employed
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Employed
Inactive
Unemployed
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Regular
employed
Inactive
students
Inactivenon
students
Relaxed
unemployed
Irregular
employed

S6
cent aie unemployeu anu anothei S2.6 pei cent aie inactive. If one ignoies issues of
quality of employment, this snapshot of the youth laboui maiket in Togo looks goou.
Anu if one compaies it with the tiauitional categoiization in Aimenia, it might seem that
the youth in Aimenia aie woise off.

The pictuie changes uiamatically, howevei, when consiueiation is given to an aspect of
job quality anu when the wiuei uefinition of unemployment to incluue those who have
given up on seaiching foi a job is applieu. Baseu on this ciiteiion, a meie 8.u pei cent of
Togo youth aie in iegulai employment, while 2u.1 pei cent aie inactive stuuents,
hopefully incieasing theii human capital to impiove theii employment piospects in the
futuie. The iemaining categoiies aie even less positive: S4.S pei cent of youth aie
engageu in lowpiouuctive, iiiegulai employment, 12.6 pei cent aie unemployeu
(ielaxeu uefinition) anu 4.9 pei cent aie neithei in the laboui foice noi in euucation
(NLFET). Putting the iiiegulaily employeu, unemployeu anu inactive nonstuuents
togethei, the laboui unueiutilization iate of Togolese youth is now 71.9 pei cent, a
figuie that shoulu cause concein among policymakeis.

S7
4.3 Measuringjobquality
4.3.1 Qualityofemploymentindicatorsandthedominanceoflowquality
employmentindevelopingeconomies
The SWTS also allows measuiement of the quality of jobs to which young people have
access. The seiies of chaits in figuie 16 attempts to chaiacteiize job quality in youth
laboui maikets. Five uiffeient inuicatois aie useu, which coiiesponu to five uimensions
of woik wages, qualifications, stability, foimality anu satisfaction:
S6

the shaie of ownaccount woikeis anu paiu employees with below aveiage
weekly wages oi income
S7
(pooily paiu);
the shaie of oveieuucateu oi unueieuucateu woikeis
S8
(qualification mismatch);
the shaie of woikeis with a contiact with a uuiation of less than 12 months,
ownaccount woikeis anu contiibuting family woikeis
S9
(iiiegulai
employment);
the shaie of woikeis in infoimal employment
4u
(infoimal employment); anu
the shaie of woikeis who claim uissatisfaction with theii cuiient job (non
satisfactoiy employment).

The iighthanu siue of each chait in figuie 16 iepiesents the inuicatois of bettei quality
employment, baseu on aveiage oi aboveaveiage wages, qualifications, stability,
foimality (secuiity) anu satisfaction. In the lowincome countiies
41
Cambouia, Libeiia
anu Nalawi anu also in Peiu (an uppeimiuuleincome countiy), theie is a cleai bias
towaiu lowei quality jobs, with the inteiesting exception of job satisfaction. Appaiently,
it takes a lot to make a young peison in a ueveloping economy expiess uissatisfaction
with theii job. In fact, the seeming contiauiction of a young peison woiking in a job that
biings little in teims of monetaiy iewaiu, stability anu secuiity claiming job satisfaction
is likely to be a ieflection of the optimism of youth, the national cultuie anu the ability to
auapt to iealities wheie so few goou jobs exist. Peihaps the value given to having a job
any job outweighs issues of job quality. This is auuiesseu fuithei in the following
subsection.

S6
Countiies weie selecteu to iepiesent all of the ueveloping iegions.
S7
Nonthly wages of employees anu uaily, monthly oi othei timespecific eainings of ownaccount
woikeis weie conveiteu into weekly iates foi compaiability. Contiibuting (unpaiu) family woikeis aie
excluueu fiom the calculation.
S8
The methouology applieu is that of the noimative ISC0baseu appioach uesciibeu in Chaptei S. Table S
pioviues the matching acioss ISC0 anu ISCEB euucational coues.
S9
Nembeis of piouuceis coopeiatives anu those not classifiable by status in employment aie also
incluueu in the categoiy of iiiegulai employment. Iiiegulai employment anu infoimal employment aie
highly coiielateu uue to the inclusion in both categoiies of ownaccount woikeis.
4u
Infoimal employment is measuieu accoiuing to the guiuelines iecommenueu by the 17th Inteinational
Confeience of Laboui Statisticians. It incluues the following subcategoiies of woikeis: (a) paiu
employees in infoimal jobs, i.e. jobs without eithei a social secuiity entitlement, paiu annual leave oi
paiu sick leave; (b) paiu employees in an uniegisteieu enteipiise with size class below five employees; (c)
ownaccount woikeis in an uniegisteieu enteipiise with size class below five employees; (u) employeis
in an uniegisteieu enteipiise with size class below five employees; anu (e) contiibuting family woikeis.
41
The Woilu Bank income classifications, }uly 2u11 ievision.

S8
Lowincomedevelopingeconomieswithweaklabourmarketinstitutionsandlackof
socialprotectionshowastrongbiastowardlowqualityyouthemployment.
Figure16.Expandedindicatorsmeasuringqualityofwork(%)

1
0
0
8
0
6
0
4
0
2
0 0
2
0
4
0
6
0
8
0
1
0
0
Non
Informal/formal
Irregular/regular
Qualificationsmismatch
Poorlypaid/wellpaid
Armenia
Qualitywork Lowqualitywork
1
0
0
8
0
6
0
4
0
2
0 0
2
0
4
0
6
0
8
0
1
0
0
Cambodia
1
0
0
8
0
6
0
4
0
2
0 0
2
0
4
0
6
0
8
0
1
0
0
Non
Informal/formal
Irregular/regular
Qualifications
Poorlypaid/wellpaid
Jordan
1
0
0
8
0
6
0
4
0
2
0 0
2
0
4
0
6
0
8
0
1
0
0
Liberia

S9

Note: The inuicatois aie shaies in total youth employment (ageu 1S29), except foi (a) the shaies of
woikeis eaining below anu aveiage anu aboveaveiage wages, which aie peicentages of employees anu
ownaccount woikeis only, anu (b) oveieuucateu anu unueieuucateu woikeis, which aie peicentages of
employeu youth with completeu euucation (i.e. excluuing cuiiently woiking stuuents).
Souice: SWTS, vaiious countiies, 2u12.

In all countiies analyseu, moie young people ieceive belowaveiage wages than aveiage
oi aboveaveiage wages. The pattein is stiongest in Cambouia, Libeiia, Nalawi anu
Peiu, with twothiius of woiking youth classifieu as pooily paiu. Infoimal employment
is also an aiea of concein in all countiies examineu. In figuie 16, the shaies of infoimal
employment iange fiom 46.8 pei cent in }oiuan to 98.S pei cent in Cambouia. Looking
at aveiages acioss the ten SWTS countiies, as many as eight out of ten young woikeis
aie in infoimal employment, six in ten young woikeis lack a stable employment
contiact, five in ten aie unueieuucateu oi oveieuucateu foi the woik that they uo anu
six out of ten young woikeis ieceive belowaveiage wages.

Theie is a stiong coiielation between the shaie of youth in iiiegulai employment anu
the shaie of youth in infoimal employment uue to oveilapping categoiies in the
uefinitions. This coiielation is obvious in all countiies except Aimenia anu }oiuan. The
ieason foi the two exceptions has to uo with the subcategoiies of infoimal
employment. Infoimal employment is maue up of two subcategoiies: (1) peisons
holuing an infoimal job in the foimal sectoi: i.e. those who aie engageu in paiu woik in
a iegisteieu enteipiise who uo not ieceive entitlements such as social secuiity
contiibutions oi paiu annual leave oi sick leave; anu (2) peisons woiking in the
infoimal sectoi: i.e. those who aie woiking with oi without pay at an uniegisteieu
enteipiise. In both, Aimenia anu }oiuan, the fiist categoiy infoimally employeu in the
foimal sectoi uominates, while in the iemaining countiies infoimal employment is
uominateu by the shaie of youth employeu in the infoimal sectoi. The lattei sub
categoiy has a stiong coiielation with the laige shaie of ownaccount woikeis anu
unpaiu family woikeis founu in the categoiy of iiiegulai employment. (See box 14 foi
an example of one countiys stiuggle to ieuuce infoimality among young woikeis anu
also section 6.1.4 on suppoit mechanisms to youth entiepieneuis, which can offei a
chance to the pooily paiu selfemployeu youth to scale up theii piofitability.)
1
0
0
8
0
6
0
4
0
2
0 0
2
0
4
0
6
0
8
0
1
0
0
Non
satisfactory/satisfactory
Informal/formal
Irregular/regular
(contract/status)
Qualificationsmismatch
(overeducatedor
Poorlypaid/wellpaid
Malawi
1
0
0
8
0
6
0
4
0
2
0 0
2
0
4
0
6
0
8
0
1
0
0
Peru

6u

}oiuan is unique among the countiies shown in that it has a veiy low shaie of woikeis
engageu in iiiegulai employment (9.1 pei cent). In }oiuan, the shaie of young own
account woikeis a subcategoiy of iiiegulai employment in total youth employment
is only 2.8 pei cent. This contiasts shaiply to the 28.u pei cent aveiage shaie among the
iemaining nine countiies.

4.3.2.Skillsmismatch

Figuie 16 shows inuicatois of oveieuucation anu unueieuucation foi countiies coveieu
by the SWTS. The methouology followeu is that of the noimative ISC0baseu appioach
intiouuceu in section S.2.2. Table 9 pioviues the uistinction between the non
matching categoiies, which aie gioupeu togethei foi piesentation in the chaits, anu
also pioviues the uistinction of employment by level of euucational attainment.

The iesults inuicate the coiielation between levels of euucational attainment anu the
calculateu levels of oveieuucation anu unueieuucation when measuieu accoiuing to the
ISC0baseu appioach. 0f the countiies with substantial shaies of employeu youth
holuing higheilevel qualifications (seconuaiy anu above), foui also show significant
shaies of oveieuucateu youth (Aimenia at 21.6 pei cent, FYR Naceuonia at 19.u pei
cent, Peiu at Su.1 pei cent anu Russian Feueiation at 1S.8 pei cent). Egypt anu }oiuan
aie outlieis: they have high levels of euucational attainment (19.6 anu S4.6 pei cent of
woiking youth with teitiaiy euucation in Egypt anu }oiuan, iespectively) but still
compaiatively low level of oveieuucation (11.1 anu 9.4 pei cent) anu high levels of
unueieuucation (SS.9 anu 4S.u pei cent).

A possible explanation foi the ieveise mismatch phenomenon in Egypt anu }oiuan is the
stiong genuei segiegation of occupations in the countiies. Although young women aie
attaining high levels of euucation, they still face a uifficult time in getting hiieu in
occupations appiopiiate to theii qualifications. Cambouia, Libeiia, Nalawi anu Togo, in
contiast, have high shaies of woiking youth with low levels of euucation (below
seconuaiy), which is ieflecteu in the laige shaie of unueieuucateu youth in occupations
iequiiing a highei skills base.

0nueiqualification in occupations in lowincome countiies iesults in low piouuctivity
giowth anu low capacity foi economic uiveisification. Investing in onthejob tiaining of
unueieuucateu woikeis coulu have an impoitant impact on the confiuence levels anu
eaining potential of the young woikei while also iaising piouuctivity levels of the
enteipiise (see section 6.1.2).

61
Theovereducatedworkingyouthsufferastheyareunabletoreachtheirproductive
potential.Theproductivepotentialoftheeconomysuffersinthefaceoflargeshares
ofundereducatedyouth.
Table9.Employmentbycharacteristicsofeducation(shareintotalemployment,%)
Overeducated Undereducated
Primary
orless
education
Secondary
education
Tertiary
education
Armenia 21.6 11.4 0.0 57.1 42.9
Cambodia 4.2 56.4 61.8 33.6 4.7
Egypt 11.1 33.9 31.0 49.3 19.6
FYRMacedonia 19.0 14.4 15.5 58.3 26.3
Jordan 9.4 43.0 47.2 18.3 34.6
Liberia 9.3 45.7 44.9 49.7 5.3
Malawi 1.7 81.8 83.3 14.8 1.9
Peru 30.1 17.4 18.7 48.7 32.6
RussianFederation 13.8 31.0 6.9 39.7 53.5
Togo 3.6 54.7 54.5 42.6 2.9


Not all occupations aie suffeiing equally in teims of the qualification mismatch. Table
1u piesents the shaie of oveieuucation anu unueieuucation by majoi occupational
gioups as ueiiveu fiom the ISC0baseu appioach foi two of the countiies, FYR
Naceuonia anu Togo. These countiies weie chosen to ieflect: (1) a ueveloping economy
with stiong laboui maiket institutions anu high euucational attainment; anu (2) an
economy with weak institutions anu low euucation levels. Note that a limitation of the
ISC0baseu calculation iuentifieu in section S.2.2 is its inability to geneiate
oveieuucation uata foi most highly skilleu occupation gioups (majoi gioups 1S). In
contiast to most auvanceu economies, unueieuucation is eviuent in the elementaiy
occupations. This is because not all woikeis in FYR Naceuonia anu Togo completeu
piimaiy euucation (the ISC0uefineu qualification foi gioup 9).

Table 1u uoes suppoit the piemise that some highly euucateu young people in FYR
Naceuonia aie having to settle foi jobs that they aie oveiqualifieu foi foi example,
as cleiks, sales woikeis oi geneial labouieis (within the elementaiy occupations). 0n
the othei hanu, theie aie also young people holuing positions that uo not match theii
level of euucational attainment. Technicians anu associate piofessionals (majoi gioup
S) have the highest chance of being unueieuucateu in the countiy (S4.2 pei cent), but
anothei onethiiu (SS.S pei cent) of young people in senioi positions oi management
aie unueieuucateu, as aie one in foui young people in skilleu agiicultuial woik anu in
machineassembly woik.

In Togo, oveieuucation is eviuent foi young people engageu in elementaiy occupations
(41.7 pei cent) anu as cleiks (17.6 pei cent), but in othei occupations, the situation is
much moie one of unueieuucation. This is not suipiising given that slightly moie than
half of the woiking youth in Togo finisheu euucation at the piimaiy level oi lowei.

62
Theie is a high inciuence of unueieuucation in all the majoi occupational gioups except
1, 8 anu 9. In paiticulai, almost all technicians anu associate piofessionals (majoi gioup
S) holu qualifications that aie below the noim piesciibeu by the ISC0 classification
(ISCEB S6).

Somehighlyeducatedyoungpeoplehavetotakeupworkinelementary
occupationsandasclerks,butotheroccupationstendtoincludesharesof
undereducatedyoungpeople,whichcanhaveconsequencesonlabourproductivity.
Table10.SharesofovereducatedandundereducatedyoungworkersinFYRMacedonia
andTogobyISCO88majoroccupationalgroup(%)
FYRMacedonia Togo
Majoroccupationalcategories
(ISCO88)
Overeducated Undereducated Overeducated Undereducated
1:Legislators,seniorofficialsand
managers
0.0 35.3 0.0 0.0
2:Professionals 0.0 2.1 0.0 52.5
3:Techniciansandassociate
professionals
0.0 54.2 0.0 95.8
4:Clerks 40.6 6.9 17.6 20.9
5:Serviceworkersandshopsand
marketsalesworkers
13.8 9.1 1.0 52.9
6:Skilledagriculturalandfishery
workers
7.1 26.5 1.1 63.4
7:Craftandrelatedtrades
workers
0.7 14.7 0.8 56.2
8:Plantandmachineoperators
andassemblers
2.6 25.6 0.0 0.0
9:Elementaryoccupations 63.4 2.7 41.7 4.1

Souice: SWTS, FYR Naceuonia anu Togo, 2u12.

4.3.3 Unravellingjobsatisfactionindevelopingeconomies

In oiuei to impiove unueistanuing of why young people iemain satisfieu with theii jobs
uespite low job quality (figuie 16), a uetaileu analysis of the nuances of job satisfaction
iates is piesenteu heie. The aim is to ueteimine which peisonal, householu oi job
chaiacteiistics aie most closely linkeu to job satisfaction.
42
The iesults in table 11 uo
show some slight vaiiations in satisfaction iates acioss the vaiiables. Foi example, in all
countiies but Egypt, }oiuan anu Nalawi, woiking youth have a highei likelihoou of being
satisfieu with theii employment if they live anu woik in an uiban setting iathei than a
iuial setting. An association can also be seen foi householu wealth, with living in a
wealthiei householu showing a stiong coiielation with job satisfaction. Finally, youth

42
Responses of highly satisfieu anu mostly satisfieu aie combineu in the oveiall satisfieu
categoiization.

6S
who feel unueiqualifieu in theii woik show a gieatei tenuency to be less satisfieu with
theii job than youth who feel oveiqualifieu.
4S

In contiast, the iegulaiity of the woik in teims of contiact teims yielus ambiguous
iesults with iegaiu to its impact on job satisfaction. In the thiee countiies wheie iegulai
employment is most ieauily attainable (anu theiefoie moie closely linkeu to
expectations) Aimenia, FYR Naceuonia anu }oiuan young people with iegulai
employment aie significantly moie satisfieu with theii jobs than those in iiiegulai
employment. In the iemaining countiies, wheie the piopoition of foimal employment is
smallei, theie is less uiffeience between the job satisfaction iates of the two
categoiies.
44

4S
This is baseu on a peiception question within the SWTS questionnaiie iathei than the application of the
oveieuucateu anu unueieuucateu calculations uiscusseu in section 4.S.2. Young iesponuents weie askeu
if they feel theii euucationtiaining qualifications aie ielevant in peifoiming theii cuiient job.
44
The ambiguous iesults iegaiuing job satisfaction anu chaiacteiistics of the job, incluuing foimal anu
infoimal sectoi, is suppoiteu by iecent ieseaich fiom The Woilu Bank. The ieseaich on chaiacteiistics of
satisfaction (job anu life) in uhana founu that woikeis appeai inuieient between foimal salaiieu
employment, selfemployment without employees, anu civil employment. 0nly the infoimal salaiieu show
a uiscount but this nuing is not iobust acioss estimation techniques anu uisappeais when conuitioning
on income. The nonwage benets of being foimal, suipiisingly, appeai not to aect utility. (Falco,
Naloney, Rijkeis anu Saiiios, 2u12).

64
Urban,wealthieryoungpeopleshowslightpremiumonjobsatisfaction.Informalityandothercharacteristicsofqualityofwork
yieldambiguousresults.
Table11.Jobsatisfactionratesbylevelofeducationalattainment,urban/ruralresidence,householdwealth,regular/irregular/informal
employmentandoverqualificationandunderqualification(%)
Armenia Cambodia Egypt FYR
Macedonia
Jordan Liberia Malawi Peru Russian
Federation
Togo
Completededucationat
primarylevelorlower
87.5 80.5 55.9 81.6 68.8 69.3 90.1 88.3 71.0
Completededucationat
secondarylevelorhigher
77.6 94.5 69.8 73.2 88.2 64.6 66.2 89.4 93.4 69.9
Urbanresidence 82.5 94.0 71.4 82.2 83.9 70.3 63.4 89.4 92.0 70.7
Ruralresidence 63.9 88.9 74.3 60.2 87.2 66.0 69.5 n.a. 89.8 69.0
Aboveaveragehousehold
wealth
89.2 97.9 80.7 88.5 88.1 78.2 78.1 94.9 97.1 82.8
Belowaveragehousehold
wealth
60.8 84.5 64.6 53.1 63.7 60.3 67.4 73.4 80.0 66.6
Inregularemployment 86.5 89.8 87.7 91.3 86.9 69.4 59.7 89.9 91.9 73.5
Inirregularemployment 60.2 90.1 70.1 52.8 60.8 68.1 70.4 89.2 84.0 70.0
Ininformalemployment 70.9 89.9 71.1 57.7 72.5 68.2 68.8 88.1 87.8 69.6
Feeloverqualified 69.9 87.7 52.6 64.2 53.0 49.4 53.8 81.9 78.3 52.3
Feelunderqualified 75.0 86.2 74.2 67.6 67.0 63.1 60.8 83.6 87.7 65.2

= negligible.
n.a. = not applicable; Peiu coveis uiban aieas only.

6S
5. Labourmarkettransitionsofyouthindevelopingeconomies

5.1 Introduction

The SWTS offeis impoitant auuitional infoimation ovei tiauitional laboui foice suiveys.
Fiist, thiough the inclusion of questions on the histoiy of economic activity of young
iesponuents, it pioviues inuicatois on laboui maiket tiansitions in ueveloping
economies anu the paths that those tiansitions take. Pieviously, inuicatois on laboui
maiket tiansitions have been lacking oi, at best, weak. The SWTS, togethei with the
Laboui Bemanu Enteipiise Suivey (LBES), attempts to fill this gap (see box S foi moie
infoimation on the ieasoning behinu the uual suivey appioach). The lattei suivey was
applieu in only two of the ten countiies uiscusseu heie anu will theiefoie be uiscusseu
only in biief in this chaptei, which will concentiate moie on showcasing some of the
ieseaich possibilities maue available thiough the SWTS.

Section S.2 piesents the uefinition of laboui maiket tiansition that is useu in the SWTS
analytical fiamewoik anu pioviues uetails on the methouology behinu measuiement of
the stages of tiansition. Section S.S then shows the methouology put to the test,
piesenting statistics on the stages of tiansition of youth within the available pioject
countiies anu analysing which chaiacteiistics of youth pioviue auvantages in attaining
stable oi satisfactoiy employment. Finally, section S.4 looks moie closely at the flow
concept of tiansitions anu offeis insights on the issue of tiansition uuiations.

Box5.Work4Youthtoolsandmethodologicalframework
Cuiient laboui maiket infoimation uoes not pioviue infoimation on why the schooltowoik
tiansition of young people touay can be a long anu uifficult piocess. At the same time, the goal
of impioving the tiansitions of youth is among the top policy piioiities of most countiies. In
iesponse to this obvious infoimation gap, the IL0 has uevelopeu a ieseaich fiamewoik: the
Laboui Naiket Tiansition Stuuy concept. The concept entails examining both supplysiue anu
uemanusiue issues, anu the fiamewoik accoiuingly compiises two suiveys. Fiist, a uetaileu
householu suivey coveiing young people ageu 1S29 is conuucteu at the national level to
geneiate infoimation on the cuiient laboui maiket situation, the histoiy of economic activities
anu the peiceptions anu aspiiations of youth (IL0 Schooltowoik Tiansition Suivey (SWTS)).

The supplysiue pictuie is then balanceu by a seconu questionnaiie, which aims to measuie
laboui uemanu, paiticulaily foi young woikeis. The Laboui Bemanu Enteipiise Suivey (LBES)
investigates the cuiient anu expecteu woikfoice neeus of enteipiises anu the views of
manageis on the geneial capacities of available young jobseekeis anu woikeis. Without the
uemanusiue pictuie, the SWTS offeis only a iounuabout means of aiiiving at the occupations
that aie being flooueu oi staiveu by the cuiient laboui supply (foi example, in looking at
unemployment iates by occupation). The LBES, in contiast, gets uiiectly to the heait of the
mattei iuentifying cuiient vacancies, vacancies piojecteu ovei the next two yeais anu,
peihaps most impoitantly, captuiing the haiutofill vacancies. Such infoimation can be of
invaluable use to policymakeis in the uesign oi ievision of vocational anu tiaining
piogiammes. It will also be of gieat value to employment seivices anu caieei guiuance
counsellois foi honing theii auvice to stuuents oi jobseekeis on the fielus of specialization in
which they aie most likely to attain employment.

Noie infoimation on the suiveys with questionnaiies anu tabulation plans aie available in

66
vaiious mouules of the MethodologicalGuide,available at: www.ilo.oigw4y.

5.2 Defininglabourmarkettransitions

The laboui maiket tiansition of young people conceins not only the length of time
between theii exit fiom euucation (eithei upon giauuation oi eaily exit without
completion) to theii fiist entiy into any job, but also qualitative elements, such as
whethei this job is stable (measuieu by contiact type). The SWTS was uesigneu in a way
that applies a stiictei uefinition of stable employment than is typically useu.
4S
By
staiting fiom the piemise that a peison has not tiansiteu until settleu in a job that
meets veiy basic ciiteiia of stability, as uefineu by the uuiation of the employment
contiact, the SWTS analytical fiamewoik intiouuces a new quality element to the
stanuaiu uefinition of laboui maiket tiansitions. Bowevei, as seen in Chaptei 4, only a
veiy small shaie of youth in ueveloping economies will evei attain stable employment,
anu if the enu goal uoes not fit the ieality, then peihaps the statistics aie not fiameu
wiuely enough. Foi this ieason, it was ueciueu to look also at job satisfaction anu to
builu this into the concept of laboui maiket tiansition.

Noie specifically, laboui maiket tiansition
46
is uefineu as the passage of a young peison
(ageu 1S29) fiom the enu of schooling (oi entiy to fiist economic activity) to the fiist
stable oi satisfactoiy job. Stable employment is uefineu in teims of the contiact of
employment (wiitten oi oial) anu the uuiation of the contiact (gieatei than 12
months). Biinging in the issue of a contiact automatically excluues the employment
status of selfemployeu, wheie the employment ielationship is not uefineu by a
contiact. The opposite of stable employment is tempoiaiy employment, oi wage anu
salaiieu employment of limiteu uuiation. Satisfactoiy employment is a subjective
concept, baseu on the selfassessment of the jobholuei. It implies that the iesponuent
consiueis the job to be a goou fit with theii uesiieu employment path at that moment
in time. The contiaiy is teimeu nonsatisfactoiy employment, implying a sense of
uissatisfaction with the job.

Baseu on this uefinition of laboui maiket tiansition, the stages of tiansition aie as
follows:

I. Transited A young peison who has tiansiteu is one who is cuiiently
employeu in:
a) a stable job, whethei satisfactoiy oi nonsatisfactoiy; oi
b) a satisfactoiy but tempoiaiy job; oi
c) satisfactoiy selfemployment.

4S
Foi an oveiview of tiansition measuiement concepts that will be useu by E0R0STAT foi its membei
States, see Boateng, uaiiouste anu }ouhette (2u12).
46
The avoiuance of the teim schooltowoik tiansition is puiposive. Looking only at youth who tiansit
fiom school to the laboui maiket woulu excluue the shaie of youth with no schooling, which in some
countiies is still sizable. The IL0 incluues this subset within tiansition inuicatois by taking as the staiting
point the young peisons fiist expeiience in economic activity. In oiuei to avoiu confusion on the
teiminology, the authois piefeience is to talk about laboui maiket tiansitions of youth, iathei than
schooltowoik tiansitions, which make up only a subset.

67

II. In transition A young peison is still in tiansition theii status is one of the
following:
a) cuiiently unemployeu (ielaxeu uefinition); oi
b) cuiiently employeu in a tempoiaiy anu nonsatisfactoiy job; oi
c) cuiiently in nonsatisfactoiy selfemployment; oi
u) cuiiently inactive anu not in euucation oi tiaining, with an aim to look foi
woik latei.

III. Transition not yet started A young peison whose tiansition has not yet
staiteu is one who is eithei of the following:
a) still in school anu inactive (inactive stuuents); oi
b) cuiiently inactive anu not in euucation oi tiaining (inactive nonstuuents), with
no intention of looking foi woik.

Two elements of this classification aie notewoithy. Fiist, the stages of tiansition span
acioss the bounuaiies of economic activity as uefineu in the stanuaiu laboui foice
fiamewoik.
47
The tiansiteu categoiy incluues a subset of youth classifieu as
employeu; the iemaining employeu fall within the categoiy of in tiansition, which
incluues also the stiict unemployeu anu poitions of the inactive (namely, those without
woik, available foi woik but not actively seeking woik
48
anu the inactive nonstuuents
who have stateu an intention to join the laboui foice at a latei stage); anu the
tiansition not yet staiteu categoiy is the iesiuual of the inactive population.

Seconu, the stages of tiansition aie not intenueu to be a noimative fiamewoik. Because
of the inclusion of youth in satisfactoiy selfemployment anu satisfactoiy tempoiaiy
employment, one cannot say that all young people in the tiansiteu categoiy have
tiansiteu to a goou job. In fact, the majoiity of young people in selfemployment the
ownaccount woikeis anu unpaiu family woikeis will be among the pooily paiu
woikeis in the infoimal economy anu so will show up on the bau job quality siue of
the chaits in figuie 16. Anu by uefinition, they make up the bulk of the countiys shaie
of iiiegulaily employeu. Yet still they have expiesseu a uegiee of satisfaction with theii
job, anu they aie likely to have finisheu theii tiansition in the sense that they will
iemain in the selfemployeu classification foi the iemainuei of theii woiking lives.

The stages of tiansition classification offeis a flow concept. A peison is in tiansition
until they have ieacheu a stable position in the laboui maiket; they have a job they aie
likely to maintain, iegaiuless of whethei it is goou oi bau. Foi a noimative fiamewoik,
one can apply the bieakuown of employment by stable oi iiiegulai job status, as
piesenteu above in Chaptei 4.

47
The inteinational guiuelines foi measuiing statistics on the economically active population, set out by
the 1Sth Inteinational Confeience of Laboui Statisticians (ICLS) in 1982, pioviue the fiamewoik foi
measuiing who is counteu as employeu anu as unemployeu accoiuing to the economic piouuction
bounuaiies set out by the System of National Accounts.
48
This is the poition auueu to the stiictly unemployeu to make up the unemployeu (ielaxeu uefinition).

68
5.3 Stagesoftransitionindevelopingeconomies

5.3.1 Acrosscountrycomparison

Which stages of tiansition uo young people expeiience anu what aie the chaiacteiistics
of those who have completeu the tiansition. Figuie 17 piesents the uistiibution of
youth population by stages of tiansition in the ten SWTS countiies (uistiibutions by sex
aie incluueu in Annex B). The uiveisity of the shaies acioss countiies makes it uifficult
to uiaw cleaicut conclusions. Youth who have completeu the tiansition make up the
laigest shaie in Cambouia, Egypt, Nalawi, Peiu, Russian Feueiation anu Togo, but the
categoiies that iank seconu vaiy acioss this gioup, anu only Cambouia shows a laige
gap between the shaie of youth with completeu tiansition (68.6 pei cent) anu the othei
categoiies. Libeiia is unique in that the laigest shaie of its youth is cuiiently in
tiansition (47.1 pei cent). Youth who have not yet staiteu theii tiansition make up the
laigest shaie in Aimenia, FYR Naceuonia anu }oiuan, which is likely to ieflect the high
iates of euucational eniolment.
49

Thedistributionofyouthacrossstagesoflabourmarkettransitionvariesfrom
countrytocountry.
Figure17.Distributionofyouthpopulationbystageoftransition(%)


Insteau of compaiing the uistiibution of stages of tiansition acioss countiies, the sub
categoiies of tiansition can be compaieu acioss countiies to pioviue valuable insights
(see Annex table B6). Foi example, in Cambouia, Egypt, Libeiia, Nalawi, Peiu anu Togo
lowincome economies except Egypt anu Peiu, which aie loweimiuule anu uppei
miuule, iespectively the majoiity of youth who have completeu the tiansition aie

49
The 2uu8 euition of the Global Employment Trends for Youth iepoit incluueu uata on gioss eniolment
iates by countiies anu iegion.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Transited Intransition Transitionnotyetstarted

69
engageu in satisfactoiy selfemployment oi tempoiaiy employment. In contiast, in
Aimenia, FYR Naceuonia, }oiuan anu the Russia Feueiation, the laigei shaie of
tiansiteu youth compiises those who have attaineu stable employment. Cambouia also
has a faiily sizable shaie of youth who have attaineu stable employment (18.6 pei cent),
but Cambouia is uiffeient in that it has a veiy small shaie of youth iemaining in
tiansition (1S.9 pei cent). Theie aie two ieasons foi this: Fiist, veiy few Cambouian
youth aie unemployeu, even applying the ielaxeu uefinition; anu seconu, Cambouian
youth almost always uesciibe themselves as satisfieu with theii job. Libeiia has a laige
shaie of youth in unemployment (ielaxeu uefinition) (28.9 pei cent) anu only a small
shaie of youth is in stable employment (4.1 pei cent). Excluuing these two uiffeiences,
the stiuctuies of the youth laboui maikets in Libeiia, Nalawi anu Togo aie quite similai,
paiticulaily with iegaius to the onethiiu shaie of youth expiessing satisfaction ovei
theii engagement in selfemployment.

Young men have an auvantage when it comes to completing theii laboui maiket
tiansition (figuie 18). In all countiies but Togo, the male shaie with completeu
tiansition is slightly highei than the female shaie. By fai the laigest gaps between
shaies of young women who completeu the tiansition anu young men aie seen in the
Niuule East anu Noith Afiican countiies of Egypt anu }oiuan, at S6.1 anu S4.8
peicentage points, iespectively. At the same time, the female shaie of tiansiteu youth is
well below that in the othei countiies, at 16.2 pei cent in Egypt anu 1u.7 pei cent in
}oiuan. Nalefemale gaps of between 1u anu 14 points aie also seen in Aimenia, Nalawi
anu Peiu.

In all countiies, the male shaie in stable employment is highei than the female shaie
(Annex table B7 anu B8). Peihaps the biggest genuei uiffeiences is the significantly
highei likelihoou of young women than young men in all countiies to iemain outsiue of
the laboui maiket without stuuying yet intenuing to engage in the laboui maiket in the
futuie. This genuei gap is paiticulaily appaient in Aimenia, FYR Naceuonia anu Peiu.
These young women aie likely to be motheis, who aie iemaining tempoiaiily outsiue of
the laboui maiket to look aftei theii chiluien. In most countiies (except FYR Naceuonia,
}oiuan anu the Russian Feueiation), young women aie significantly moie likely than
men to be among the unemployeu (ielaxeu uefinition).

7u
Youngmalesaremorelikelytocompletethetransitiontostableorsatisfactory
employment.
Figure18.Shareoftransitedyouthintotalyouthpopulation,bysex(%)


5.3.2 AdetailedtransitionanalysisforLiberia

To uemonstiate the impact that othei vaiiables beyonu sex have on the stages of
tiansition inuicatois, the following analysis concentiates on one countiy only: Libeiia.
Su

Figuie 19 uisaggiegates the two economically active stages of tiansition the tiansiteu
youth anu youth still in tiansition by householu income level, level of euucational
attainment anu iuialuiban geogiaphic aiea. Peihaps not suipiisingly, youth coming
fiom householus of above aveiage income level aie moie likely to tiansit to stable
employment. No coiielation seems to exist between householu income level anu
unemployment, even though one might assume that only the wealthiei householus can
suppoit young people thiough a peiiou of unemployment. The shaies of youth in
unemployment (ielaxeu uefinition) aie veiy similai at Su.9 pei cent foi above aveiage
income householus anu S2.u pei cent foi below aveiage income householus. Finally, the
youth in pooiei householus aie much moie likely than youth fiom wealthiei
householus to finu themselves in selfemployment oi tempoiaiy employment
(satisfactoiy anu nonsatisfactoiy) oi to be inactive. Policy iesponses taigeteu at easing
tiansitions of the moie uisauvantageu young people aie uiscusseu in section 6.1.S.

Su
The SWTS iepoit LabourmarkettransitionsofyoungwomenandmeninLiberia will be available in }une
2u1S. Reaueis aie inviteu to ieview the papei to gain a bettei unueistanuing on the context of oveiall
laboui maiket anu economic conuitions in the countiy.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Male Total Female

71
Householdwealth,investmentineducationandurbanoriginsofferadvantagesin
thelabourmarkettransitionofyouthinLiberia.
S1
Figure19.Liberia:Stagesoftransition(categoriesoftransitedandintransition)by
householdincomelevel,educationalattainmentandgeographicarea(%)

Note: Bouseholu income level is selfueteimineu by the young iesponuent.

Note: 0nlike the othei chaits on stages of tiansition, this one excluues cuiient stuuents fiom the
calculation since theii highest level is not yet ueteiminable.

S1
It is impoitant to note that the auvantages biought to the tiansition iesults by uiban geogiaphy,
householu wealth anu highei euucation levels aie not unique to Libeiia. Analyses of the iemaining nine
SWTS countiies show similai iesults.

72

Souice: SWTS, Libeiia, 2u12.
The level of euucational attainment of Libeiian youth has a stiong impact on whethei oi
not they have completeu the tiansition. Almost all Libeiian youth with a highei
euucation uegiee aie in the tiansition completeu categoiy anu, within that categoiy,
piimaiily in the shaie of youth who have attaineu stable wage employment. Baving at
least a seconuaiylevel qualification is a pieiequisite to attaining stable employment in
Libeiia. These iesults aie suppoiteu by those of the suivey of enteipiises (LBES) iun
simultaneously with the SWTS in Libeiia. The enteipiise suivey founu that 47.7 pei
cent of enteipiises piefei to hiie a young peison with a teitiaiy uegiee oi post
seconuaiy vocational tiaining foi a piofessionalmanagement vacancy anu SS.8 pei
cent foi a piouuction position (vansteenkiste, ue Nel anu Eluei, 2u1S). (See box 6 foi
auuitional infoimation.) Young people with piimaiy oi lowei euucation (incluuing no
schooling) uominate the inactive nonstuuents anu selfemployment oi tempoiaiy
employment (satisfactoiy anu nonsatisfactoiy) categoiies. Inclusion in national
appienticeship piogiammes, as uiscusseu in box 12, might help to open the uooi of
lessei euucateu Libeiian youth to a possible futuie in stable employment.

Results aie moie evenly split foi the unemployeu: S7.S pei cent of the unemployeu have
below seconuaiy level euucation anu 42.S pei cent have seconuaiy level oi above.
Again, the iesults foi the unemployeu aie somewhat contiaiy to what might be
expecteu, in that the young people with a highei skills level seem no moie likely than
those with a lowei skills level to hang aiounu in unemployment; oi iathei, the two
categoiies aie equally likely to be unemployeu.

Remaining in euucation uoes not guaiantee a goou job in Libeiia; it is, howevei, a
pieiequisite foi the aspiiation to stable wage employment. The uemanu foi youth with
teitiaiy euucation iemains stiong in Libeiia. In fact, the LBES confiimeu that the
uemanu is not being met by the national supply, anu that some enteipiises iesoit to
impoiting foieign laboui fiom elsewheie to fill higheilevel positions. It is inteiesting to
contiast these finuings with those of countiies in the Niuule East anu Noith Afiica
wheie unemployment among univeisity giauuates iemain high (IL0 anu 0NBP, 2u12).

7S
As figuie 19 also shows, youth in uiban aieas aie fai moie likely than youth in iuial
aieas to tiansit to stable employment, anu it is impoitant to auu that this finuing is
suppoiteu by the analysis of uata fiom all ten countiies. The iatio is neaily nine to one
in favoui of the uiban youth. The uiban youth aie also moie likely to be unemployeu
(with a iatio of two unemployeu uiban youth to one unemployeu iuial youth) anu less
likely to be an inactive nonstuuent with an intention to woik in the futuie (with a iatio
of one inactive uiban youth to two inactive iuial youth). The shaies of youth in
satisfactoiy oi nonsatisfactoiy selfemployment oi tempoiaiy employment aie moie
evenly spieau between the two geogiaphic aieas.

To summaiize, in Libeiia the most auvantageu youth in teims of completing the laboui
maiket tiansition aie young uiban males fiom wealthiei householus with at least
seconuaiylevel euucation. A similai analysis has been maue foi the othei SWTS
countiies, which suppoit the univeisality of the chaiacteiistics that make foi a moie
successful tiansition foi young people in ueveloping economies.

Box6.HowtheLDEScomplementsSWTSresultsandstrengthensinterpretation
The LBES (as outlineu in box S) offeis a means of captuiing the cuiient anu piojecteu uemanu
foi youth laboui.

In the case of Libeiia,
S2
the LBES has shown that theie shoulu be numeious employment
oppoitunities in the countiy ovei the next two to thiee yeais foi seconuaiy school teacheis,
nuising piofessionals, managing uiiectois, civil engineeiing technicians, system analysts,
electionic engineeiing technicians, accountants anu othei highenu skilleu woikeis
(vansteenkiste et al. 2u1S). Inteiestingly, the occupations that aie giowing aie faiily well
matcheu by the fielus of stuuy that cuiient stuuents claimeu to want to focus on (health anu
welfaie, 24.6 pei cent; social sciences, 2S.6 pei cent; engineeiingmanufactuiingconstiuction,
14.9 pei cent; anu euucation, 1S.6 pei cent). So theie is some hope that futuie laboui maiket
entiants in Libeiia will face a faiily smooth tiansition to employment. But the main challenge
in the countiy has nevei been among the moie euucateu youth, but iathei is among the less
euucateu, who iemain stuck in selfemployment (figuie 19).

S2
0f the ten SWTS countiies uiscusseu in Chapteis 4 anu S, the LBES has been implementeu in two so fai:
Libeiia anu Nalawi.

74
5.4 Labourmarketflowsanddurationsoftransition

5.4.1 Labourmarketflows

The SWTS allows an analysis of laboui maiket flows by iuentifying the laboui maiket
categoiy helu by a iesponuent piioi to tiansiting to stable oi satisfactoiy employment.
Figuie 2u shows that in the nine countiies examineu (note: flow uata aie not piocesseu
foi Peiu), the vast majoiity of young people in employment tiansiteu uiiectly to stable
employment oi satisfactoiy selfemployment oi tempoiaiy employment. This means
they hau no inteimeuiaiy spells befoie acquiiing theii cuiient job, which is classifieu as
eithei stable in contiact teims oi satisfactoiy selfemployment oi tempoiaiy
employment.

Figuie 2u suggests that shopping aiounu among laboui maiket expeiiences uoes not
seem to be the noim in ueveloping economies. In the lowincome economies of the
sample Cambouia, Egypt (loweimiuule), Libeiia, Nalawi anu Togo the majoiity of
young people who expeiienceu a uiiect tiansition moveu uiiectly to satisfactoiy self
employment. The laige shaie of youth in this subcategoiy in the five countiies,
theiefoie, helps to explain the gieatei than 4u pei cent inciuence of uiiect tiansitions
(see Annex table B6). Anothei impoitant finuing is that between 2u anu Su pei cent of
the young people who expeiienceu a uiiect tiansition in the five lowincome economies
completeu the tiansition befoie the age of 1S, i.e. as chilu labouieis. The laboui maikets
in the compaiatively higheiincome economies, Aimenia, FYR Naceuonia, }oiuan anu
the Russian Feueiation, behave uiffeiently.
SS
In these countiies, the majoiity of young
people who expeiienceu a uiiect tiansition moveu uiiectly to stable employment. At the
same time, laigei shaies of youth in the foui countiies engageu in active job seeking
(meaning they weie classifieu as unemployeu) piioi to attaining theii cuiient job.
S4

Some, but always less than onethiiu, of the tiansiteu youth have eithei moveu fiom
unpaiu woik in a family enteipiise oi have pievious expeiience in paiu employment oi
selfemployment as an employei. Peihaps the most inteiesting finuing is how few of the
young people have manageu to move to stable oi satisfactoiy employment fiom own
account woik. At most, 1u.1 pei cent of young Nalawians moveu fiom ownaccount
woik to a job they felt moie satisfieu with. Anothei inteiesting finuing is the
consistently veiy low peicentages of young people who moveu to stable oi satisfactoiy
employment fiom inactivity, suggesting the existence of an inactivity tiap.

SS
The countiies aie classifieu as uppei miuule income with the exception of Aimenia which is lowei
miuule. The Woilu Bank income classifications, }uly 2u11 ievision.
S4
Note: The stiict uefinition of unemployment iequiiing an active job seaich is applieu.

7S
Shoppingaroundamonglabourmarketexperiencesdoesnotseemtobethenorm
indevelopingeconomies.
Figure20.Flowstostableand/orsatisfactoryemployment(transitedcategory)

Note: 0thei employment incluues nonsatisfactoiy tempoiaiy employment foi those who tiansiteu to
stable employment oi satisfactoiy selfemployment oi tempoiaiy employment, anu selfemployment as
employei oi wage anu salaiieu woikei foi those who tiansiteu to satisfactoiy selfemployment oi
tempoiaiy employment. In the case of Aimenia only, othei employment also incluues peisons who have
tiansiteu uiiectly fiom engagement in the aimy. Aimenia maintains manuatoiy militaiy seivice (two
yeais) foi young men.

Table 12 piesents tiansition path inuicatois foi Aimenia anu Cambouia, to pioviue a
moie uetaileu pictuie of how young people in these countiies aiiiveu at the tiansiteu
stage.
SS
When one incluues the young people who tiansiteu uiiectly to stable anuoi
satisfactoiy employment to geneiate an aveiage uuiation of tiansition (S8.S pei cent in
Aimenia anu 4S.S pei cent in Cambouia; see figuie 2u), the iesults show a tiansition
uuiation of slightly longei than one yeai foi tiansiteu youth in Aimenia (14.9 months)
anu 9.8 months in Cambouia. Removing the numbei of youth who tiansiteu uiiectly
fiom the calculation, howevei, ieveals a veiy uiffeient pictuie. In the two countiies, the
path to tiansition was not especially ciicuitous foi those who uiu not move uiiectly to
stable anuoi satisfactoiy woik, but it was lengthy. The typical Aimenian youth spent,
on aveiage, 24.9 months in tiansition, with almost two spells of economic activity
(unemployment oi employment) oi inactivity befoie completing the tiansition. Young

SS
As in table 8, the compaiison is between a ueveloping economy with ielatively stiong laboui maiket
institutions anu high levels of euucational attainment (Aimenia) anu one with weak institutions anu low
euucation levels (Cambouia).
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Directtransition
Fromunemployment
Fromownaccountwork
Fromunpaidfamilywork
Fromotheremployment
Fromi nactivity
%oftransitednonstudent youth
Armenia Cambodia Egypt FYRMacedonia Jordan Liberia Malawi RussianFederation Togo

76
Aimenian men expeiienceu slightly moie spells of activity than young women; howevei,
one shoulu beai in minu the manuatoiy militaiy consciiption of young men in Aimenia,
anu that time spent in the aimy woulu count as one spell of activity. In Cambouia, in
contiast, theie aie fewei spells of activity uuiing tiansition, at an aveiage of 1.4, but the
time spent in tiansition is moie than thiee times as long as the Aimenian tiansiteu
youth. The aveiage Cambouian youth, who hau not moveu uiiectly to stable anuoi
satisfactoiy employment, spent 6S.7 months, moie than five yeais, in tiansition.

In Aimenia, young people who expeiienceu unemployment piioi to completing the
tiansition spent, on aveiage, 1S.S months seeking a job. Young women expeiienceu
longei spells of unemployment than young men. In both countiies, the tenuency is foi a
tiansiteu youth to have expeiienceu one spell of tempoiaiy employment oi one spell of
selfemployment. The uiffeience between the two countiies iests in the uuiation of the
employment spells. Cambouian youth expeiienceu, on aveiage, Su.S months, oi 2.S
yeais, of tempoiaiy employment piioi to completing the tiansition, compaieu with 12.1
months, oi one yeai, foi Aimenian youth. Spells of selfemployment weie longei foi
both countiies, on aveiage of S4.7 months (4.S yeais) in Cambouia anu 16.8 months (1.4
yeais) in Aimenia. In both countiies, young men saw longei spells of tempoiaiy
employment anu young women saw longei spells of selfemployment, most likely in the
unpaiu family woikei categoiy.

Timespentinunemploymentpriortocompletingthetransitionisrelativelyshort;
however,youthwhotransitfromtemporaryemploymentorselfemploymentare
likelytospendsignificanttimeinthatactivitybeforetransiting.
Table12.IndicatorsonpathoftransitionfortransitedyouthinArmeniaandCambodia,by
sex
Armenia Cambodia
Total Male Female Total Male Female
Averagedurationoftransition
(includingdirecttransits)
14.9
months
15.6
months
15.2
months
9.8
months
6.5
months
12.7
months
Averagedurationoftransition
(excludingdirecttransits)
24.9
months
14.5
months
25.0
months
63.7
months
58.5
months
66.3
months
Averagenumberofintermediary
activities
1.8 2.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4
Averagenumberofunemployment
spells
1.1 1.1 1.1
Averagedurationof
unemploymentspells
15.5
months
13.1
months
18.2
months

Averagenumberoftemporary
employmentspells
1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Averagedurationoftemporary
employmentspells
12.1
months
13.2
months
9.3
months
30.3
months
37.6
months
26.6
months
Averagenumberofspellsofself
employment
1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Averagedurationofspellsofself
employment
16.8
months
16.6
months
27.4
months
54.7
months
54.0
months
55.2
months
= not ieliable uue to small sample.
Note: The path inuicatois excluue youth who maue a uiiect tiansition except wheie inuicateu.
Souice: SWTS, Aimenia anu Cambouia, 2u12.

77

5.4.2 Durationoflabourmarkettransitions

Finally, the SWTS also allows foi an analysis of the aveiage uuiation of tiansition. Table
12 has alieauy piesenteu the aveiage uuiations of tiansition in Aimenia anu
Cambouia.
S6
The uuiations of paths of tiansition can be consiueieu accoiuing to the
following schema, uesigneu by the IL0:

I. A short transition is classifieu as one in which, befoie obtaining the cuiient
satisfactoiystable job, the young peison unueiwent eithei:
- a uiiect tiansition; oi
- a spell (oi cumulative spells) of stable oi satisfactoiy employment with no spell
of unemployment oi inactivity; oi
- a spell (oi cumulative spells) of employment of less than oi equal to one yeai
with no spell of unemployment oi inactivity wheie the job(s) helu is classifieu as
nonsatisfactoiy selfemployment oi tempoiaiy employment; oi
- a spell of unemployment with oi without spells of employment oi inactivity of
less than oi equal to thiee months; oi
- a spell of inactivity of less than oi equal to one yeai.

II. A midlength transition is classifieu as one in which, befoie obtaining the
cuiient satisfactoiystable job, the young peison unueiwent eithei:
- a spell (oi cumulative spells) of nonsatisfactoiy selfemployment oi tempoiaiy
employment of between one anu two yeais with no spell of unemployment oi
inactivity; oi
between thiee months anu one yeai; oi
- a spell of inactivity longei than one yeai.

III. A lengthy transition is classifieu as one in which, befoie obtaining the cuiient
satisfactoiystable job, the young peison unueiwent eithei:
- a spell (oi cumulative spells) of nonsatisfactoiy selfemployment oi tempoiaiy
employment of two yeais oi ovei with no spell of unemployment oi inactivity; oi
one yeai oi ovei.

S6
Bata on tiansition uuiations in othei countiies aie founu in Annex table B1u.

78
Transitionperiodsareshortformostyouthindevelopingeconomies.Onlyin
Armenia,wheremanytransitfromunemployment,isthewaitforstableor
satisfactoryemploymentalongone.
Figure21.Durationoftransitiontostableand/orsatisfactoryemployment

Note: Buiation of tiansition foi tiansiteu youth is calculateu foi nonstuuents only. Flow uata aie not yet
available foi Peiu.

In the nine countiies piesenteu in figuie 21, most laboui maiket tiansitions by youth
weie uiiect tiansitions (as uemonstiateu in figuie 2u) anu weie theiefoie classifieu as
shoit in uuiation.
S7
0nly in Aimenia, FYR Naceuonia anu }oiuan uiu lengthy
tiansitions compiise moie than 2u pei cent of all tiansitions (22.S pei cent, S7.6 pei
cent anu S2.1 pei cent, iespectively). In these countiies, a substantial shaie of tiansiteu
youth hau eithei been looking foi woik foi moie than 12 months oi hau been engageu
in nonsatisfactoiy selfemployment oi nonsatisfactoiy tempoiaiy employment foi at
least two yeais befoie moving to the cuiient stable anuoi satisfactoiy job. The high
iates of youth unemployment (ielaxeu anu stiict uefinitions) in the thiee countiies
suggest that the majoiity of the youth spent theii tiansition in longteim unemployment
(see Annex table B2). In the othei countiies, the shaies of tiansiteu youth who
expeiienceu lengthy tiansitions weie low, all at below 1S pei cent.

In contiast, the youth who iemaineu in tiansition weie likely to finu themselves staying
within the categoiy foi an extiemely long time. The time in tiansition foi the nine
countiies ianges fiom 44.4 months, oi neaily 4 yeais, in Egypt to 9S.9 months, oi eight

S7
As uemonstiateu in the uiscussion associateu with table 12, the aveiage uuiation of tiansition incluuing
young people who tiansiteu uiiectly can be much lowei than the aveiage uuiation calculateu without the
uiiect tiansits. A woithy futuie exeicise woulu be to apply the categoiization of uuiation in tiansition to
the measuies sepaiately, anu also to compaie the schema of uuiation foi youth who tiansiteu to stable
employment compaieu to youth who tiansiteu to satisfactoiy selfemployment oi tempoiaiy
employment. Bata on uuiations of tiansition foi the two subcategoiies aie available in Annex table B1u.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
%
o
f
t
r
a
n
s
i
t
e
d
y
o
u
t
h
Shorttransition Midlengthtransition Lengthytransition

79
yeais, in Togo
S8
(table 1S). In fact, given the long uuiations that young people in the
nine countiies iemain in tiansition, it must be concluueu that young people aie highly
unlikely to complete a tiansition to stable anuoi satisfactoiy woik befoie they ieach
auulthoou (oi age Su, as the uppei limit of the SWTS age banu). Stiengthening the
capacity of employment seivices to pioviue young people with jobseeking skills, among
othei seivices, is one policy iesponse that coulu help ieuiess the situation of young
people who finu themselves stuck in the laboui maiket tiansition (see box 11).
Manyyoungpeoplewillnevercompletethetransitiontostableorsatisfactory
employment,atleastnotwhilestillclassifiedasyouth.
Table13.Averagedurationintransitionforyouthintheintransitioncategory
Months Years
Armenia 61.6 5
Cambodia 87.8 7
Egypt 44.4 4
FYRMacedonia 72.6 6
Jordan 52.4 4
Liberia 63.7 5
Malawi 76.7 6
RussianFederation 50.7 4
Togo 95.9 8

Note: Buiation of tiansition foi intiansition youth is calculateu foi nonstuuents only. Flow uata aie not
yet available foi Peiu.
Box7.FutureresearchandproductsoftheWork4Youthproject
Chapteis 4 anu S of this euition of the GlobalEmploymentTrendsforYouth have been uesigneu
to offei a taste of the analyses that can follow the IL0 SWTS anu LBES. Cleaily, theie is so
much moie that can be uone with the iich emeiging uatasets. Aieas that will be investigateu
fuithei in futuie national, iegional anu thematic iepoits incluue the following:
1. An investigation of the gap between the fiist job anu the cuiient job; uoes the fiist job
affect the tiansition path.
2. An examination of fiisttime jobseekeis compaieu with job loseis.
S. 0nemployment by job ieseivations, types of job sought, fielu of specialization (in
stuuies) anu job seaich methous (in compaiison with uemanu issues, incluuing job
hiiing methous useu by employeis).
4. The iuentification of youth who completeu the tiansition within theii oveiall path anu
then went back to tiansition; why uoes this occui.

S8
The authoi has consiueieu the bias that the age of the young iesponuent can biing to the inteipietation
of uuiation of tiansition foi those young people still in tiansition. The oluei youth, ageu 29, foi example,
coulu have many moie yeais in the laboui maiket than a 1Syeaiolu. This effoit is paitly balanceu by the
oluei youth who stay in euucation anu theiefoie postpone theii entiy to the laboui maiket. Rathei than
attempt a system of weighting by age of the iesponuent, the authoi has piefeiieu to piesent the aveiage
uuiation without aujustments. 0seis aie encouiageu, howevei, to look foi futuie uisaggiegation of such
uata by specific youth cohoits: 1S19, 2u24 anu 2S29.

8u
S. An investigation of age of leaving school anu age of fiist economic activity.
6. What uoes the tiansition path of appientices look like.
S9
Anu what about foimei chilu
labouieis.
7. Wages anu the links to satisfaction anu secuiity.
8. Specific challenges foi the selfemployeu.
9. Noie on the iuialuiban uiviue.
In auuition to 28 national iepoits that will accompany the completion of the suiveys in each
iounu, the Woik4Youth pioject will also piouuce the following outputs:
1. Fivethematicreports that utilize the iichness of the available uata to auuiess topics
that aie key to the youth employment challenge in low anu miuuleincome countiies;
2. Fiveregionalreports that offei a synthesis of iesults in the thiee to eight countiies
pei iegion (Asia anu the Pacific, Eastein Euiope anu Cential Asia, Latin Ameiica anu
the Caiibbean, Niuule East anu Noith Afiica, anu SubSahaian Afiica). The iepoits will
look foi iegional patteins in youth laboui maiket tiansitions anu foi uistinctions in
national policy fiamewoiks that might be tiansfeiable between countiies.
S. A iepoit on MDGsanddecentandproductiveemploymentforyouth,scheuuleu foi
late 2u14. This will focus on the tienus anu actions that countiies have shown ovei the
1uyeai couise of the Nillennium Bevelopment uoals to piomote uecent anu
piouuctive woik foi youth.
4. A globaldatabase containing a compiehensive set of inuicatois on the laboui maiket
situation foi young people, between the ages of 1S anu 29 yeais, in the ueveloping
woilu. The uatabase will incluue also both iaw uatasets anu tabulateu inuicatois of the
SWTS. (See also box 19.)
S. A globalinventoryofyouthemploymentpolicies. The uatabase will incluue national
policies, policy fiamewoiks anu legislation specifically uesigneu foi young people, as
well as those foi the wiuei laboui maiket. (See also box 19.)

S9
The numbei of youth paiticipating in appienticeships oi inteinships has pioven to be insignificant in all
of the SWTS countiies so fai. At most, 17 of the sample of 2,uSS youth in Togo weie engageu in an
appienticeship uuiing the suivey peiiou (foui in foimal appienticeships anu 1S in infoimal
appienticeships).

81
6 Policiesforyouthemployment

6.1 Aglobalframeworktotackletheyouthemploymentcrisis

Impiovements in youth laboui maiket outcomes can only be achieveu thiough an in
uepth unueistanuing of both global anu countiyspecific employment anu laboui
maiket issues. The analysis of youth laboui maikets, paiticulaily of the issues that
chaiacteiize youth tiansitions to uecent woik, is key foi ueteimining countiyspecific
neeus anu foi shaping policies anu piogiammatic inteiventions.

Theie is no onesizefits all appioach to tackling the youth employment ciisis. Bowevei,
theie aie some key policy aieas that neeu to be consiueieu in ielation to national anu
local ciicumstances. These aieas weie iuentifieu at the Inteinational Laboui Confeience
(ILC) in }une 2u12 anu aie incluueu in its iesolution, Theyouthemploymentcrisis:Acall
for action, which was auopteu by iepiesentatives of goveinments, employeis
oiganizations anu tiaue unions of the 18S membei States of the IL0 (IL0, 2u12g).
6u

The call foi action unueilines the uigency foi immeuiate anu taigeteu inteiventions to
tackle the unpieceuenteu youth employment ciisis that is affecting most countiies
acioss all iegions. The conclusions that accompany the ILC iesolution pioviue a global
fiamewoik to help countiies shape national stiategies that aie baseu on a multi
piongeu anu balanceu appioach. The fiamewoik coveis five main policy aieas: (1)
employment anu economic policies to inciease aggiegate uemanu anu impiove access
to finance; (2) euucation anu tiaining to ease the schooltowoik tiansition anu to
pievent skills mismatches; (S) laboui maiket policies to taiget employment of
uisauvantageu youth; (4) entiepieneuiship anu selfemployment to assist potential
young entiepieneuis; anu (S) laboui iights that aie baseu on inteinational laboui
stanuaius to ensuie that young people ieceive equal tieatment anu aie affoiueu iights
at woik. These main policy aieas aie biiefly uiscusseu below in light of the issues
iuentifieu in this iepoit.

6.1.1 Stimulatedemandandcreatejobsforyouththroughproemployment
macroeconomicpolicies

The youth employment ciisis will not be oveicome without stiongei employment
giowth. This iequiies cooiuinateu policy effoits to suppoit aggiegate uemanu thiough
pioemployment macioeconomic policies anu to fostei giowth engines thiough an
appiopiiate balance of expoituiiven giowth anu expansion of uomestic economies
(IL0, 2u1Sa).

Policies that fostei stiong aggiegate uemanu, inciease piouuctive investment anu
impiove access to finance can have a positive impact on young peoples employment
piospects (see box 8). Nacioeconomic anu giowth policies can suppoit youth
employment by encouiaging economic uiveisification anu the uevelopment of sectois
that aie conuucive to the cieation of jobs foi youth. In Euiope, foi example, a numbei of

60
The full text of the 2012 resolution The youth employment crisis: A call for action can be found on the
ILO website at http://www.ilo.org/ilc/ILCSessions/101stSession/texts-adopted/WCMS_185950/lang--
en/index.htm.

82
sectois have been iuentifieu as having a high jobcieation potential. These incluue the
gieen economy, health anu social caie, anu infoimation anu communications
technology.

A iecent econometiic investigation analyzeu the impact of macioeconomic
ueteiminants on youth employment (Natsumoto, Bengge anu Islam, 2u12). 0n the
uemanu siue, it concluueu that the highei the investment, the lowei the youth
unemployment iate in both inuustiializeu anu low anu miuuleincome economies. In
tuin, investment is uepenuent on access to anu the cost of cieuit: when banks aie
ieluctant to lenu, oi only lenu at high inteiest iates, enteipiises face seiious
impeuiments to uoing business anu ieciuiting young woikeis.

Box8.Approachestoboostaggregatedemandandpromoteyouthemployment
Policies that piomote employmentcentieu anu sustainable giowth aie vital if young people
aie to be given a faii chance at a uecent job. Youth laboui maiket outcomes aie closely ielateu
to oveiall employment tienus but aie moie sensitive to the business cycle. A boost in aggiegate
uemanu is key to auuiessing the youth employment ciisis as this will cieate moie job
oppoitunities foi young people. IL0 ieseaich shows that macioeconomic policies can influence
youth employment by:

encouiaging economicdiversificationandproductivetransformation;
ieuucing macioeconomic volatility by engaging in timely anu targeted counter
cyclicalpolicies;
loosening constiaints on piivate sectoi giowth, with a paiticulai emphasis on access
tofinanceformicro,smallandmediumsizedenterprises;
focusing on targeted demandside interventions with paiticulai impact on youth
employment (e.g. laboui intensive infiastiuctuie woiks, public employment
piogiammes, wage anu tiaining subsiuies); anu
ensuiing adequate and predictable funding foi taigeteu youth employment
inteiventions.

Souice: IL0 (2u12g).

Policies that offei fiscal incentives, suppoit the uevelopment of infiastiuctuie anu
uevelop enabling iegulations foi enteipiises opeiating in competitive sectois with a
high youth employment potential can offei a wiue iange of woik oppoitunities.
Similaily, incentives that encouiage enteipiises to pioviue woik expeiience to young
people can have a significant impact on youth employment outcomes.

An IL0 ieview of the policy fiamewoiks of a numbei of countiies ievealeu a geneial
unueiutilization of policy inteiventions that aim to inciease laboui uemanu. It also
showeu that it is quite uncommon to finu a compiehensive set of policy piioiities,
taigets anu outcomes foi youth employment. Noieovei, funuing is often allocateu foi
the implementation of piogiammes with limiteu outieach anu the iesouices eaimaikeu
foi policy implementation aie mostly unueiestimateu (IL0, 2u12g, Chaptei 2).

8S
These finuings point to the uigent neeu to uevelop integiateu stiategies foi giowth anu
job cieation that make youth employment piioiities explicit. In tuin, timebounu youth
employment plans can conveit these piioiities into conciete action (see the example in
box 9). As highlighteu by evaluation iesults, paitneiships that involve public authoiities
anu social paitneis have gieat potential to impiove the effectiveness of youth
employment inteiventions (Quintini, Naitin anu Naitin, 2uu7).

Box9.ThePeruvianactionplanforyouthemployment
Bespite significant economic expansion between 2uuu anu 2u1u, two out of eveiy thiee
unemployeu peisons in Peiu in 2u1u weie young people, foui of eveiy five young employeu
peisons woikeu in piecaiious jobs anu moie than half (S6 pei cent) of the youth population (8
million) woulu have consiueieu leaving if given the chance.
In oiuei to iesponu to the youth employment challenge, the goveinment of Peiu auopteu a
national employment policy (2u1u2u14) that assigns piioiity to youth employment. Such
piioiity has been opeiationalizeu thiough the implementation of a youth employment action
plan that ievolves aiounu employment cieation, employability anu entiepieneuiship. A
national tiipaitite committee, which incluues young iepiesentatives of employeis anu
woikeis oiganizations, oveisees the implementation of the piioiities of the plan.

Noie than S9u,uuu young people weie assisteu with the measuies of the action plan by the
enu of 2u12. Builuing on the finuings of national suiveys, the goveinment intiouuceu the
following institutional iefoims:
ieuuction in the ieu tape anu costs ielating to job applications, thiough the intiouuction of
a fieeofchaige single ceitificate that contains all pieces of infoimation (CERTI}oven);
skills tiaining cum woikexpeiience piogiammes (}ovenes a la obia);
moueinization of caieei guiuance seivices;
establishment of a tiaining piogiamme taigeting young entiepieneuis (Pio}oven
Empienueuoi);
uevelopment of an infoimation system that simplifies maiket assessments; anu
establishment of an infoimation anu oiientation seivice foi young people woiking (oi
planning to woik) abioau (Infomigia).

Souice: Auapteu fiom IL0 (2u12g).

6.1.2 Investineducationandtrainingtoenhanceemployabilityandfacilitatethe
schooltoworktransition

Euucation anu tiaining systems aie key ueteiminants of youth employment outcomes:
they can pioviue young people with the iight skills anu attituues to piepaie them foi
the woilu of woik anu, theiefoie, facilitate the schooltowoik tiansition.

Bespite significant impiovements in euucational attainment, theie is still a significant
numbei of lowincome countiies wheie young people expeiience low levels of
euucation (see Chapteis 4 anu S). Auuitional investment to impiove access to anu
ielevance of euucation is iequiieu in these countiies. Foi young people who nevei
attenueu school oi who left school eaily, seconuchance initiatives can be paiticulaily

84
ielevant as they facilitate the acquisition of basic knowleuge anu competencies foi the
laboui maiket (0NESC0, 2u12).

In many othei countiies, anu iiiespective of the level of economic anu social
uevelopment, young people face uifficulties in finuing a job because of the mismatch
between euucation anu tiaining outcomes anu laboui maiket iequiiements. In the
Niuule East anu Noith Afiica, foi instance, highei levels of euucation have not pioveu
sufficient in themselves foi secuiing a uecent job. The phenomenon of the euucateu
unemployeu is closely linkeu to insufficient giowth anu uiveisification anu weak
aggiegate uemanu. In some auvanceu economies, the skills mismatch is a peisistent anu
giowing tienu that is also uue to skills uepletion biought about by incieaseu inciuence
of longteim unemployment anu laboui maiket uetachment among young people. In
many countiies, oveieuucation anu unueieuucation coexist. This may cause peimanent
uamage to human capital anu the longteim competitiveness of enteipiises anu
economies.

In oiuei to be iesponsive to laboui maiket iequiiements, tiaining anu skills
uevelopment stiategies shoulu ensuie that tiaining piovision incluues both technical
anu coie skills foi employability (e.g. communication, teamwoik anu pioblemsolving
skills) that aie poitable acioss occupations, enteipiises anu sectois (see box 1u). The
piesence of woik expeiience components in technical vocational euucation anu tiaining
(TvET) piogiammes incieases the capacity of tiainees to piactise theii skills in a ieal
woik setting. }ob seaich techniques, entiepieneuiship anu iights of young woikeis
shoulu all be pait of the cuiiicula.

Box10.Askilledworkforceforstrong,sustainableandbalancedgrowth
The u2u summit that took place in Pittsbuigh in Septembei 2uu9 agieeu on the impoitance of
builuing an employmentoiienteu fiamewoik foi futuie economic giowth. The leaueis askeu
the IL0 to uevelop a tiaining stiategy to suppoit stiong, sustainable anu balanceu giowth. The
tiaining stiategy constitutes a fiamewoik foi builuing biiuges between euucation anu tiaining
anu the woilu of woik. It iecognizes the uiveise iealities anu focuses on a common fiamewoik
foi meeting cuiient anu futuie skills neeus, using a holistic appioach anu lifecycle peispective,
which encompass the following featuies:

bioaubaseu, goouquality geneial euucation;
seamless pathways fiom euucation to TvET anu to the woilu of woik;
employability thiough coie skills, continuous leaining anu poitability of skills, which
enable woikeis anu enteipiises to aujust to change;
a uynamic uevelopment piocess that uses skills as a uiivei of change; anu
policy conveigence anu cooiuination mechanisms.

Souice: IL0 (2u11b).

The employment seivices have a significant iole in assisting young people make smooth
tiansitions fiom school to woik anu in auuiessing skills mismatches (see box 11).

8S
Box11.Theroleofemploymentservicesinfacilitatingyouthlabourmarkettransitions
Nany young people aie unable to ielate the skills anu expeiience they have gaineu to the neeus
of enteipiises. Thiough inuiviuual caieei guiuance, the piepaiation of functional cuiiiculum
vitaes anu suppoit in the uevelopment of employment plans, employment seivice expeits help
jobseekeis to effectively match theii qualifications to the uemanus of the laboui maiket.

These seivices can liaise with euucation institutions to pioviue theii caieei guiuance staff
with impoitant infoimation ielateu to both cuiient anu futuie neeus within the laboui maiket.
By pioviuing uetaileu occupational infoimation, incluuing cleai inuications of main uuties,
enviionmental factois anu vaiious entiy points associateu to occupations in uemanu, the
netwoik of laboui offices help ensuie that young people have a gieatei unueistanuing of the
fielu of woik they aie piepaiing foi. Auuitional infoimation ielateu to conuitions of woik anu
anticipateu salaiy ianges foi the vaiious entiy points within an occupation also help to avoiu
futuie uisappointment oi uissatisfaction with chosen caieei paths. Thiough theii collaboiation
with enteipiises, employment seivices can assist tiaining institutions to combine foimal
classioom tiaining with onthejob woik expeiience.

A iecent ieview of the public employment seivices (PES) in the countiies of the Euiopean
0nion points to the following lessons fiom inteiventions to ease the schooltowoik tiansition:
Peisoncentieu appioaches to counselling anu guiuance appeai to be moie effective
than stanuaiu appioaches. In auuition, inuiviuualizeu counselling anu the
establishment of an inuiviuual employment plan eaily in the peiiou of unemployment
is an effective tool foi the implementation of activation stiategies foi young people.
Case management anu mentoiship appioaches have also shown goou iesults.
Piofiling systems that builu on accuiate, timely anu ieliable laboui maiket infoimation
anu take into account the whole peisonallife situations of young clients make laboui
maiket integiation stiategies moie effective.
0utieach activities neeu to focus on employeis who aie potentially willing to employ
uisauvantageu youth oi to offei them woikbaseu tiaining measuies. This incluues
goou ielationships with local enteipiises anu links to employeis, social enteipiises anu
the voluntaiy sectoi.
In the case of young school uiopouts, nonfoimal types of leaining may be moie
successful than foimal euucation alone. The inteiaction of classioom anu woikplace
tiaining incieases the likelihoou of positive laboui maiket outcomes. When combineu
with othei seivices, the piobability of a positive outcome incieases fuithei.
If well taigeteu, tiaining subsiuies foi fiims that take on lowskilleu youth can expanu
woikbaseu tiaining places foi uisauvantageu young people. Theii effectiveness
uepenus on theii uesign anu taigeting: both can minimize uistoition effects (i.e.
ueauweight anu substitution).

Souice: Buell anu vogleiLuuwig (2u11); IL0 Piogiamme on Employment Seivices anu Euiopean
Commission (2u11).

Woik expeiience is highly valueu by fiims anu so the lack of such expeiience constitutes
a majoi obstacle foi fiisttime jobseekeis. Nany young people aie tiappeu in a vicious
ciicle: they aie unable to acquiie woik expeiience because they cannot finu a fiist job,
but they cannot obtain a job because they uo not have woik expeiience.
Appienticeships aie a pioven system foi achieving laigescale impact in youth

86
employment piomotion anu aie a majoi ieason foi the low levels of youth
unemployment achieveu by some Euiopean countiies (see box 12).

The appienticeship system is chaiacteiizeu by close collaboiation between public
policy, tiaining pioviueis, enteipiises anu social paitneis. It woiks best when
woikplace anu classioom leaining aie combineu, theie is bioau iecognition of the skills
acquiieu, the iegulations anu contiacts (e.g. uuiation of appienticeship, iemuneiation
anu othei woiking conuitions) ieflect the outcomes of social uialogue, anu when theie is
a cofinancing system involving both public institutions anu the piivate sectoi. In the
bettei peifoiming systems, appienticeships aie oiganizeu within inuustiy sectois by
tiipaitite bouies which iuentify tiaining neeus, cuiiicula, appienticeship stanuaius anu
mechanisms foi assessing leaining outcomes.

Box12.GainingworkexperiencethroughthedualapprenticeshipinselectedEuropean
countries
The uual system of appienticeship combines schoolbaseu euucation with incompany
tiaining. It is a pioven system of leaining foi woik in Austiia, Benmaik, ueimany anu
Switzeilanu. In these countiies, low youth unemployment is often attiibuteu to the
effectiveness of this system, which successfully pioviues laige numbeis of young people with
quality euucation anu tiaining foi the iecognizeu qualifications uemanueu by enteipiises. The
involvement of the social paitneis in piogiamme uesign anu implementation ensuies that
appienticeship piogiammes meet laboui maiket iequiiements.

The ueiman system incluues the following key featuies:
The content of enteipiisebaseu tiaining is ueteimineu jointly by goveinment,
iepiesentatives of employeis oiganizations anu tiaue unions (feueial level).
Inuiviuual fiims choose theii own tiaining methous.
Tiaining costs aie shaieu between the goveinment anu employeis (goveinment coveis
the schoolbaseu component; employeis finance enteipiisebaseu tiaining).
Conuitions unuei which appienticeships take place aie ueteimineu thiough collective
agieements specifying the minimum appientice wage.
Qualifications aie awaiueu upon completion of wiitten anu piactical exams, set anu
maikeu by tiipaitite exteinal examineis.
Competent bouies (e.g. chambeis of commeice anu inuustiy anu tiaue) issue
ceitificates that aie iecognizeu thioughout the countiy.
Aftei giauuation, woikeis can apply to theii cuiient employei oi anothei foi
employment.

Souice: IL0 (2u11b).

All countiies shaie the challenge of equipping theii woikfoice with the skills iequiieu
not only foi the jobs of touay but also foi those of tomoiiow. Longteim tienus aie
ieuefining jobs anu occupations anu changing the uemanu foi skills at a fast pace. These
incluue uemogiaphic tienus, technological changes, the new ciitical mass of skills in
emeiging economies anu the tiansition to eneigyefficient anu gieenei economies. 0ne
way to help pievent skills mismatch anu its auveise consequences foi the laboui maiket
is to ensuie that tiaining stiategies contain piovisions foi anticipation of futuie skills

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neeus anu foi aligning tiaining ueliveiy with changing neeus in the laboui maiket (see
box 1S).

Box13.ILOtoolsforanticipatingskillsneeds
The methous foi anticipating futuie skills neeus incluue a vaiiety of quantitative anu
qualitative appioaches, anu theii combination, at uiffeient levels of analysis: macioeconomic,
sectoial, subnational anu local. They may pioject futuie employment tienus by occupation
anu level of euucational attainment as well as uepict specific competences iequiieu foi futuie
jobs uepenuing on the objectives, uisaggiegation anu quality of uata. The iesults of
anticipative analyses may infoim policy uecisions as well as uecisions of inuiviuuals about
theii own caieei anu vocational choices. Efficient anticipative systems incluue institutional
piovisions that allow social uialogue with employeis anu woikeis foi policymaking anu foi
the aujustment of a tiaining offei.

The IL0, in collaboiation with othei agencies will publish the following tools to guiue the
anticipation of skills neeus in 2u1S:
a beginneis guiue on quantitative foiecasting anu qualitative foiesights anu scenaiios
at a macioeconomic level;
a guiue on employment seivices anu tools foi skills anticipation anu matching; anu
a piactical guiue on anticipation anu matching of skills at the sectoial level.

The collaboiative inteiagency woik will continue beyonu 2u1S anu will also incluue a guiue
on employeis skills suiveys, tiacei stuuies anu a guiue on the use of laboui maiket
infoimation foi answeiing key policy conceins ielateu to skills anticipation anu matching.

Souice: IL0, Skills anu Employability Piogiamme.

As shown by the iesults of the schooltowoik tiansition suiveys (see Chapteis 4 anu S),
the vast majoiity of young people in lessuevelopeu economies aie engageu in iiiegulai
employment, eain a living in the infoimal economy anu cannot affoiu to lose the income
that is essential foi suivival. This is why inteiventions aimeu at impioving tiaining anu
employment foi livelihoous that taiget uisauvantageu young woikeis aie ciitical foi
impioving eainings anu conuitions of woik in the infoimal economy oi to suppoit the
tiansition of young woikeis to the foimal economy. Stiategies foi employment anu
livelihoou can fostei the economic empoweiment of uisauvantageu young woikeis anu
pioviue alteinative mouels foi income geneiation anu employment, paiticulaily foi
young people living in iuial aieas. Implementeu with the involvement of the
community, these youth employment inteiventions usually consist of liteiacy, livelihoou
skills anu entiepieneuiial tiaining. They also incluue inteiventions to facilitate access to
cieuit anu maikets anu pioviue othei suppoit seivices. The piogiamme Tiaining foi
Ruial Economic Empoweiment (TREE), foi instance, suppoits uisauvantageu youth
thiough the iuentification anu assessment of local economic oppoitunities, uesign anu
ueliveiy of communitybaseu tiaining anu piovision of posttiaining seivices.
61
Noie

61
Information on the TREE programme can be found on the ILO website at
http://www.ilo.org/skills/areas/skills-training-for-poverty-reduction/lang--en/index.htm. Theie aie othei
similai examples of inteiventions that aim to inciease piouuctivity anu bieak the ciicle of lowskilleu,
lowpaiu anu iiiegulai employment. See, foi example, the P.A.C.E. programme for women in the garment
industry at

88
effoits shoulu be ueployeu in lowincome countiies to uelivei youth employment anu
livelihoou piogiammes with a view to impioving piouuctivity anu woiking conuitions
of young woikeis.

6.1.3 Improvelabourmarketintegrationofyoungpeoplethroughtargeted
labourmarketpolicies

Laboui maiket policies anu piogiammes that meuiate between laboui supply anu
uemanu can impiove the laboui maiket integiation of young people, especially if they
aie well taigeteu anu sequenceu. When accompanieu by income suppoit anu othei
social piotection measuies, these packages of measuies help mitigate euucation anu
laboui maiket failuies anu skills mismatch, piomote efficiency anu equity in the laboui
maiket, sustain aggiegate uemanu anu piomote the tiansition to foimal employment
(see box 14).

Box14.Youthtransitionstoformalemploymentthroughlabourmarketreforms:The
caseofArgentina
Aftei the ueep economic ciisis of the eaily 2uuus, the Aigentine goveinment intiouuceu a
numbei of iefoims to auuiess high levels of infoimality. These incluueu Law No. 2S.877, which
pioviues foi an initial 12month ieuuction in social secuiity contiibutions foi new ieciuits by
small anu micio enteipiises. In paiallel, the Piogiama ue Simplificacion Registial simplifieu
auministiative pioceuuies thiough the establishment of a single woikei iegistiation system.
To impiove compliance by enteipiises, in 2uuS the goveinment auopteu the Plan Nacional ue
Regulacion uel Tiabajo anu incieaseu the iesouices allocateu to the Laboui Inspectoiate.
Buiing the fiist two yeais of this piogiamme, about onethiiu of the infoimal woikeis
iuentifieu thiough laboui inspections weie iegisteieu.

These iefoims iesulteu in a ieuuction of infoimality among young employees. In auuition, Law
No. 26.427 establisheu sanctions foi enteipiises misusing appienticeships. This law iequiies
the issuance of a fixeuteim contiact with uetaileu piovisions foi tiaining, social secuiity
contiibutions anu wages.

Specific measuies weie auopteu to cuib infoimality in the most affecteu occupations. These
measuies simplify the iegistiation of uomestic woikeis anu allow the ueuuction of social
secuiity contiibutions fiom taxes paiu by employeis. Anothei measuie, known as mono
tiibuto social, was intiouuceu to taiget loweaining selfemployeu people in the infoimal
economy. These measuies also alloweu foi the extension of social secuiity to incluue woikeis
who hau foimeily been excluueu.

Souice: Auapteu fiom 0ECB anu IL0 (2u11)

Active laboui maiket policies (ALNPs) focusing on employment planning anu job seaich
assistance have pioven to be effective in helping young people finu jobs. ALNPs that aie
ueliveieu as compiehensive packages of employment piogiammes anu seivices have
passeu the evaluation bettei than single measuies. These inteiventions usually combine

http://www.gapinc.com/content/csr/html/Goals/communityinvestment/our_program_in_action/advancing_in_th
eworkplace.html.

89
iemeuial euucation anu tiaining with woikexpeiience piogiammes anu jobseaich
assistance, as well as incentives foi employeis to hiie uisauvantageu young people. The
incentives can take the foim of wage subsiuies, tax cuts oi social secuiity exemptions
foi a limiteu peiiou foi employeis who hiie young people. They allow the taigeting of
paiticulaily uisauvantageu youth anu help iaise laboui uemanu uuiing an economic
uowntuin.

Evaluations show that timebounu anu welltaigeteu subsiuies can have an employment
impact foi youth with low piouuctivity, especially in countiies with high laboui costs. In
some cases, ALNPs aie auministeieu togethei with social piotection measuies (e.g. cash
tiansfeis that incluue tianspoit allowances, chilucaie giants oi housing assistance) to
enable paiticipation in the piogiammes. Especially foi those out of woik foi longei
spells, measuies shoulu link social piotection to active job seaich.

An example of a compiehensive package of laboui maiket measuies foi young people is
the youth guaiantee. The concept of a youth guaiantee implies an entitlement to a job,
tiaining oi euucation foi a uefineu gioup of young people seeking employment anu an
obligation foi the public employment seivice (PES) oi anothei public authoiity to
pioviue the seivices anuoi implement the piogiammes within a given peiiou of time.
Seveial countiies in Euiope have hau positive expeiience in using youth guaiantees to
pievent longteim unemployment anu laboui maiket uetachment (see box 15).

Box15.Youthguarantees:Aresponsetotheyouthemploymentcrisis?
Youth guaiantees pioviue young people who fulfil pieestablisheu ciiteiia with an entitlement
to ceitain laboui maiket suppoit measuies. The fiist countiies to implement youth guaiantees
in the 198us anu 199us weie Benmaik, Finlanu, Noiway anu Sweuen. Noie iecently, othei
countiies have embaikeu on similai piogiammes. These incluue Austiia, ueimany, the
Netheilanus anu Polanu.

The piimaiy objectives of the guaiantees aie to piomote laboui maiket integiation anu
pievent longteim unemployment anu uiscouiagement among young people. These objectives
aie bioauly similai acioss countiies, although uiffeiences exist with iespect to the uesign of
national guaiantee piogiammes. These incluue the types of measuies, eligibility ciiteiia,
uuiation of the inteivention anu compensation.

Accoiuing to an evaluation of the Sweuish youth guaiantee conuucteu in 2u11, unemployeu
young people ageu 24 who paiticipateu in the piogiamme in 2uu8 weie able to finu a job
fastei than a contiol gioup of paiticipants in othei PES measuies.

Although fuithei ieseaich is neeueu, an IL0 ieview of available uata anu infoimation on youth
guaiantees suggests that youth guaiantees can play a significant iole in ieuucing the scais of
longteim unemployment anu uiscouiagement among young women anu men (IL0, 2u1Su).
The same ieview uistilleu lessons on the pieiequisites foi wellfunctioning youth guaiantees
anu analyseu the costs ielateu to the implementation of these piogiammes. The
implementation of timely inteiventions that aie taigeteu at uefineu gioups of uisauvantageu
youth, a wellestablisheu auministiative capacity anu buuget flexibility, anu a stiong euucation
anu tiaining system aie key factois foi the success of youth guaiantees. IL0s cost estimates
suggest that youth guaiantees can be implementeu at an annual cost aveiaging fiom u.S to 1.S
pei cent of uBP. These vaiy uepenuing on the availability of the auministiative infiastiuctuie

9u
foi the implementation of guaiantees on a laigei scale anu the size of the eligible population.
The possible tiansfei of guaiantees to countiies that have a lessuevelopeu infiastiuctuie anu
less expeiience, as well as theii extension to a laigei eligible gioup, shoulu take into account
the auuitional iesouice iequiiements associateu with countiyspecific chaiacteiistics.

Souice: IL0 (2u1Su) anu IL0 (2u12e).

In Febiuaiy 2u1S, the Euiopean 0nions (E0) Council of Employment anu Social Affaiis
ministeis agieeu to offei new oppoitunities to guaiantee young citizens of the E0 with
goou quality employment, continueu euucation, an appienticeship oi a tiaineeship
within 4 months of leaving school oi becoming unemployeu. In oiuei to implement the
guaiantees, E0 membei States can make full use of the Euiopean Social Funu anu othei
stiuctuial funus, as well as the auuitional 6 billion that was allocateu foi the peiiou
2u142u2u to iegions wheie the youth unemployment iate exceeus 2S pei cent
(Euiopean Commission, 2u1S).

The iuentification anu taigeting of uisauvantageu gioups in the laboui maiket aie
ciucial foi the effective uesign anu implementation of ALNPs. Theie aie many examples
of appioaches that establish piofiles foi young people anu uevelop inuiviuualizeu
inteiventions that match paiticipants neeus with laboui maiket oppoitunities. These
appioaches also have the auvantage of allocating iesouices moie efficiently as they
allow foi pioviuing intensive employment assistance to uisauvantageu youth, while
othei young people aie assisteu with stanuaiu suppoit measuies such as jobseaich
assistance anu employment planning. Box 16 summaiizes the auvantages anu
uisauvantages of the youth laboui maiket inteiventions mentioneu in this section.

Box16.Youthemploymentprogrammes:Lessonsfromevaluation
Seveial evaluation stuuies of youth employment piogiammes have shown that some
piogiammes aie successful while otheis fail to impiove young paiticipants chances of gaining
a job. Some of the auvantages anu uisauvantages of these piogiammes aie summaiizeu below.

Typeof
programme
Advantages Disadvantages
Labourmarket
training
Woiksbettei with bioauei
vocational anu employability skills
that aie in uemanu anu when it
incluues woik expeiience anu
employment seivices
Nay piouuce tempoiaiy, iathei than
sustainable solutions anu, if not well
taigeteu, may benefit those who aie
alieauy bettei off; tiaining alone may
not be sufficient to inciease youth
employment piospects
Employment
services(job
search,career
guidanceand
labourmarket
information)
Can help youth make iealistic
choices anu match theii aspiiations
with employment anu tiaining
oppoitunities; impiove infoimation
on job piospects anu on the
efficiency, effectiveness anu
ielevance of initiatives
Nay cieate uniealistic expectations if
not linkeu to laboui maiket neeus, anu
they often only covei uiban aieas anu
the foimal economy

Employment
intensivepublic
worksand
community
Belp young people gainlaboui
maiket attachment anu, at the same
time, impiove physical anu social
infiastiuctuie anu the enviionment,
Low capacity foi laboui maiket
integiation; young woikeis may become
tiappeu in a caiousel of public woiks
piogiammes; often genuei biaseu;

91
services especially when combineu with
uevelopment anu sectoial stiategies,
anu can enhance employability if
combineu with tiaining
uisplacement of piivate sectoi
companies
Employment
subsidies
Can cieate employment if taigeteu
at specific neeus (e.g. to compensate
foi initial lowei piouuctivity anu
tiaining) anu at gioups of
uisauvantageu young people
Bigh ueauweight losses anu substitution
effects (if not taigeteu); employment
may last only as long as the subsiuy
Entrepreneurship
promotion
Can have high employment potential
anu may meet young peoples
aspiiations (e.g. foi flexibility,
inuepenuence); moie effective when
combineu with financial anu othei
seivices, incluuing mentoiing
Nay cieate uisplacement effects anu
have a high failuie iate, which limits its
capacity to cieate sustainable
employment; is often uifficult foi
uisauvantageu youth uue to theii lack of
netwoiks, expeiience, knowhow anu
collateial

Souice: IL0 (2u11c).

The evaluations of such piogiammes helpeu to iuentify the main featuies of successful
inteiventions, which incluue the following (IL0, 2u11c):

Formulationandimplementationatearlystagesofjoblessness(unemployment,
uiscouiagement oi inactivity) aie less costly, inciease laboui maiket
attachment anu aie moie likely to impiove the employment of young people.
Designsthatrespondtolabourmarketrequirementsimpiove the employment
oppoitunities of paiticipants. Laboui maiket infoimation anu contiol gioups
aie essential foi the uesign, monitoiing anu evaluation of initiatives.
Targeting and tailoring to individual needs and labour market disadvantages
have piouuceu bettei piogiamme iesults. ueneiic taigeting baseu on age may
benefit those who coulu have founu a job without paiticipating in the
piogiammes.
Comprehensivepackagesofservicesthat combine vaiious components ielating
to both laboui uemanu (e.g. tax incentives, entiepieneuiship) anu supply (e.g.
tiaining, caieei guiuance anu job seaich assistance) can be moie effective
than single measuies.
Provision of work experience and the involvement of the private sector (e.g.
thiough incompany tiaining anu woik placement) inciease employment
oppoitunities, especially wheie piogiammes place paiticipants with piivate
companies.
Involvement of the social partners contiibutes to the effectiveness of
piogiammesanu helps in connecting youth with the woilu of woik.

92
6.1.4 Providecareeroptionstoyoungpeoplebysupportingentrepreneurship
andselfemployment

Entiepieneuiship can pioviue caieei options foi young people by unleashing theii
economic potential. It can also offei gieatei inuepenuence, highei income potential anu
incieaseu job satisfaction. In geneial, young people have fewei business skills, less
knowleuge anu expeiience, fewei savings anu ieuuceu access to cieuit, business
netwoiks anu souices of infoimation than oluei inuiviuuals. Financial institutions
iegaiu them as a highiisk gioup because of theii lack of collateial anu business
expeiience. Foi these ieasons, entiepieneuiship components of youth employment
policies aie moie successful when they combine tiaining, suppoit seivices anu access to
finance. uioupbaseu youth entiepieneuiship, incluuing coopeiatives anu social
enteipiises, can pool togethei complementaiy skills anu expeiience that aie valuable
in staiting anu iunning an enteipiise.

Stiategies to piomote entiepieneuiship among young people shoulu: (1) suppoit an
entiepieneuiial cultuie by incluuing entiepieneuiship euucation anu tiaining in school;
(2) enact iegulations that piomote the uevelopment of sustainable micio anu small
sizeu enteipiises, coopeiatives anu social businesses; (S) ease access to finance,
incluuing by guaianteeing loans anu suppoiting miciocieuit initiatives; anu (4)
inciease the iange of suppoit seivices (e.g. maiketing, uistiibution chains, expoits,
public piocuiement) available to young entiepieneuis.

Inteiventions to suppoit the tiansition of young entiepieneuis to the foimal economy
neeu to incluue measuies to inciease enteipiises efficiency anu enhance theii capacity
to innovate, as well as inteiventions to iaise piouuctivity anu impiove conuitions of
woik. The Youth Employment Inventoiy iankeu entiepieneuiship piomotion measuies
as having the highest positive impact on employment cieation among a iange of
piogiammes ievieweu.
62
Box 17 summaiizes the lessons leaineu fiom the ieview of
youth entiepieneuiship piogiammes.

Box17.Lessonslearnedfromsuccessfulyouthentrepreneurshipprogrammes
The 2uu7 ieview of inteiventions to suppoit young woikeis, which analyseu the uata anu
infoimation in the Youth Employment Inventoiy, iuentifieu a numbei of key lessons that can
be useu foi the uevelopment of successful youth entiepieneuiship piogiammes. These incluue
the following:

Youth entiepieneuiship is one of the most ielevant inteiventions foi combating youth
unemployment anu has a high potential foi employment cieation.
Piogiammes shoulu taiget specific gioups who suffei fiom specific maiket baiiieis,
such as women.
It might be moie effective to offei packages with a bioau iange of seivices, iathei than
only pioviuing manageiial tiaining oi financial suppoit.
Small piogiammes iun by Nu0s anu piivate sectoi institutes with smallei outieaches
anu moie focuseu taiget gioups tenu to be moie effective than laigei piogiammes iun
by public institutions.

62
Foi the Youth Employment Inventoiy see http:www.youthemploymentinventoiy.oig.

9S
Conuucting moie iigoious impact assessments baseu on a contiol gioup appioach is a
must in view of the lack of soliu eviuence.
Embeuuing entiepieneuiship cuiiicula in piimaiy, seconuaiy anu teitiaiy euucation
coulu be an effective way of changing attituue towaius young entiepieneuis.

Souice: Baseu on Betcheiman, uoufiey, Pueito, Rothei anu Stavieska (2uu7).

6.1.5 Ensurethatyoungpeoplereceiveequaltreatmentandareaffordedrights
atwork

Young people continue to suffei uispiopoitionately fiom uecent woik ueficits anu low
quality jobs, measuieu in teims of woiking poveity, low pay anuoi employment status
anu exposuie to occupational hazaius anu injuiy. Nany young woikeis lack
oppoitunities to move to fulltime employment fiom paittime, tempoiaiy, casual oi
seasonal employment. In the infoimal economy, young people woik unuei pooi
woiking conuitions in both uiban anu iuial aieas. National youth employment policies
shoulu ensuie that young people ieceive equal tieatment anu aie affoiueu iights at
woik.

The ILCs 2u12 Resolution iuentifies a numbei of key aieas that can guiue goveinments
anu theii social paitneis in the uevelopment of youth employment policies that aie
consistent with the piovisions of inteinational laboui stanuaius. These policies shoulu
ensuie that young people ieceive equal tieatment anu aie affoiueu iights at woik.

The enfoicement of laboui laws anu collective agieements shoulu be stiengtheneu,
incluuing thiough a stiongei anu moie effective sanctioning mechanisms, as means to
piotect young woikeis anu facilitate theii tiansitions into stable anu uecent
employment. The uevelopment of a coheient wage policy fiamewoik that takes account
of the obseivance of minimum wages set by law oi by collective agieement can give
many young people the oppoitunity to oveicome poveity anu low paiu woik (see box
18).

Box18.Collectiveagreementsonpoliciesforyouthemployment
An IL0 ieview of uevelopments in iespect of both singleemployei anu multiemployei
collective agieements (see IL0, 2u12g, section 2.1u anu table 2.4) has shown that, uepenuing
on the type of inuustiial ielations system, issues ielateu to youth employment aie incluueu in
agieements at uiffeient levels.

In seveial Euiopean countiies, collective agieements typically ueal with foui types of youth
employment issue. The fiist ielates to young peoples entiance into the laboui maiket.
Agieements aimeu at auuiessing this issue consist of policies anu measuies to encouiage the
ieciuitment of young woikeis, incluuing teims anu conuitions foi inteinships anu
appienticeships. The seconu issue is the stabilization of employment foi vulneiable categoiies
of woikeis, incluuing uisauvantageu youth. The thiiu issue is the impiovement of teims anu
conuitions of employment foi young woikeis, incluuing the abolition of an agebaseu wage
iate anu the iegulation of youth pay within minimum wages legislation. The fouith issue
incluues the negotiation of tiaining piovision to young woikeis.

94
Souice: Baseu on IL0 (2u12g) anu IL0 (2u12h).

Incieasing the paiticipation of young people in employeis anu woikeis oiganizations
anu in social uialogue anu impioving theii awaieness about young woikeis iights
incluuing thiough mouules in school cuiiicula aie key instiuments foi enabling young
people to voice theii conceins anu foi impioving the quality of jobs available to them.

6.2 Conclusions

The unpieceuenteu youth employment ciisis iequiies countiies to take immeuiate anu
taigeteu action. Neasuies shoulu be balanceu among the following instiuments, which
must be auapteu to countiyspecific neeus:

- Multipronged and balanced strategies for growth and job creation. Youth
employment is bounu to the oveiall employment situation: this is why an
employmentcentieu stiategy that aims to inciease giowth anu oveiall aggiegate
uemanu woulu inciease the job oppoitunities foi young people. Publicpiivate
paitneiships anu iegional anu local uevelopment can also contiibute by pioviuing
innovative anu scalable solutions.

- Targetedyouthemploymentactionthroughtripartiteconsensusandtimebound
action plans. uoveinments, employeis oiganizations anu tiaue unions aie well
placeu to ueteimine the action to be taken at national anu sectoial levels foi the
piomotion of uecent woik foi youth. 0vei the past uecaue, the IL0 has assisteu
seveial countiies in ueveloping national action plans on youth employment. These
plans can be useu to conveit youth employment piioiities into conciete action anu to
stiengthen the cooiuination of youth employment inteiventions.

- Apprenticeships, skills training and other worktraining programmes. The
combination of skills uevelopment with woik expeiience has pioven effective,
incluuing uuiing the iecent ciisis. Appienticeships foi lowskilleu anu inexpeiienceu
young people can ieuuce laboui costs foi enteipiises anu impiove theii longteim
employability (IL0, 2u12i).

- Comprehensivepackagesoflabourmarketmeasurestargetingspecificgroupsof
young people. Youth employment piogiammes that aie taigeteu at uisauvantageu
youth anu offei a compiehensive package of seivices, such as youth guaiantees, can
facilitate the tiansition of young people to uecent woik. Active laboui maiket policies
that aie baseu on single measuies aie unlikely to woik foi uisauvantageu youth.
Noie effoit shoulu be maue to expanu youth employment anu livelihoou
inteiventions that taiget pooi youth in iiiegulai employment. A tailoimaue package
appioach that taigets specific gioups of young people will be most effective. Foi
instance, evaluations show that wage subsiuies to encouiage the piivate sectoi to
hiie young people aie likely to yielu a longteim employment impact if they aie
combineu with counselling anu tiainingcumwoik expeiience suppoit.

- Employmentservices.Laboui maiket inteimeuiation that offeisstanuaiu suppoit
to all young jobseekeis (foi example, selfseivice, gioup counselling anu job seaich
techniques, incluuing employment planning) anu moie intensive anu taigeteu

9S
assistance foi haiutoplace youth can iesponu most effectively to the uiveise
neeus anu laboui maiket uifficulties of young people. Eaily inteiventions baseu on
piofiling techniques anu outieach piogiammes make the seivices moie ielevant to
young people anu assist enteipiises in the ieciuitment piocess. Paitneiships
between employment offices anu municipal authoiities, the social paitneis, social
seivices anu civil society oiganizations aie iequiieu to impiove the taigeting of
young people who fall within the ieach of the laboui offices.

- Multiple services for entrepreneurship, social enterprises and cooperatives
development. Tiaining suppoit, assistance in accessing cieuit, maikets anu
netwoiks, anu othei actions aimeu at encouiaging entiepieneuiship can pioviue
options foi young people incluuing uuiing times of ciisis. Recoveiy policies shoulu
give piioiity to access to finance foi micio, small anu meuiumsizeu enteipiises.

- Bipartiteandtripartitecooperation.Establishing the enabling enviionment foi the
successful implementation of employment anu laboui maiket inteiventions foi
young people iequiies bipaitite anu tiipaitite coopeiation. This is confiimeu by the
iesults of evaluations of youth employment piogiammes. uoveinments, employeis
oiganizations anu tiaue unions all have a iole to play, both thiough fulfilling theii
own specific manuates anu thiough conceiteu anu joint effoits.

- Platforms for exchanging knowledge and lessons of what works. A lot can be
leaineu fiom goou piactice in public policy anu fiom innovative paitneiships, but
gieat ueal of expeiience is not sufficiently well known. Noie platfoims anu netwoiks
aie neeueu to systematically iuentify anu uisseminate lessons on what woiks.
Shaiing of infoimation thiough publicly available global iepositoiies, platfoims anu
netwoiks can make a majoi contiibution (see box 19 foi examples of global youth
employment iepositoiies).

Box19.Globalyouthemploymentrepositories
Access to ielevant infoimation on youth employment policies anu piogiammes pioviues
policymakeis, ieseaicheis, youth employment expeits anu piactitioneis with tools that can
suppoit the policymaking anu piogiamme uevelopment piocesses. The IL0 has engageu in a
numbei of paitneiships foi the uevelopment of the following global iepositoiies:

YEI. The Youth Employment Inventoiy is a global iepositoiy that pioviues compaiative
infoimation on youth employment inteiventions woiluwiue. It compiises moie than
4uu youth employment piogiammes fiom aiounu 9u countiies. The Inventoiy
uocuments piogiamme uesign, implementation anu iesults. The Inventoiy is manageu
by a paitneiship between the IL0, the ueiman Ninistiy of Economic Coopeiation anu
Bevelopment, the InteiAmeiican Bevelopment Bank, the Woilu Bank anu the
Secietaiiat of the Youth Employment Netwoik.
YouthSTATS. The uatabase on youth laboui maiket statistics is a compiehensive set of
inuicatois on the laboui maiket situation of young people between the ages of 1S anu
29 yeais in the ueveloping woilu. This uatabase is manageu by the IL0s Woik4Youth
pioject anu the 0nueistanuing Chiluiens Woik (0CW) piogiamme. It taps into an
inventoiy of ovei 1Su micio uata files of householubaseu suiveys iun in ovei 7u
countiies. 0seis aie able to biowse anu expoit a selection of Su inuicatois gioupeu
accoiuing to 12 themes. This uatabase is cuiiently being expanueu to incluue entiiely

96
new uatasets, incluuing the IL0's schooltowoik tiansition suiveys.
YouthPOL. The youth employment policy uatabase contains infoimation on national
policies foi youth employment. Such infoimation is vital foi policymakeis seeking to
piomote uecent woik foi youth. This woikinpiogiess tool focuses on policies
specifically uesigneu foi young people, as well as those foi the wiuei laboui maiket.
Relevant policies aie fiist analyseu thiough a questionnaiie anu then classifieu
accoiuing to vaiious chaiacteiistics, such as policy aiea, taiget gioup anu
implementation stiategies. The questionnaiie is available online, anu a softwaie will
allow useis to analyse infoimation anu make giaphical compaiisons acioss countiies,
policy aieas anu themes. YouthP0L is a paitneiship between the IL0 anu the Pioject
Woik4Youth that is sponsoieu by The NasteiCaiu Founuation. Auuitional paitneiships
aie being sought to impiove the geogiaphical scope of the uatabase thiough the
collection of infoimation on national policies anu to stiengthen policy analysis capacity
at national level.
GoodPRACS. The goou piactices initiative on youth employment is a paitneiship
between the IL0 Youth Employment Piogiamme anu the 0niveisity of Colima, Nexico.
It was launcheu in Naich 2u12 with the aim of iuentifying anu shaiing piogiammes,
piojects oi piactices that pioveu effective in piomoting uecent woik foi young people.
Noie than 1uu piactices fiom ovei Su countiies weie submitteu. The pioposeu
initiatives weie ievieweu by teams of youth employment expeits. Five piactices (one
pei iegion) weie iuentifieu anu piogiamme manageis weie inviteu to piesent these
piactices at the IL0 Youth Employment Foium in Nay 2u12. A seconu phase of the
pioject was launcheu in Apiil 2u1S to expanu the numbei of goou piactices hosteu by
the uatabase.

Souice: IL0s Youth Employment Piogiamme, www.ilo.oigyep.

97
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1uS
AnnexA.Worldandregionaltables

The souice of all tables in Annex A is IL0, Tienus Econometiic Nouels, Apiil 2u1S.
2u12p aie pieliminaiy estimates.
2u1Sp2u18p aie piojections; foi uetails on methouology, see Annex E.
TableA1.Globalunemploymentandunemploymentrates,youth(1524),adult(25+)andtotal(15+),20072013
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p 2013p
Youth unemployment (millions) 69.9 70.4 75.6 74.0 72.6 72.9 73.4
Adult unemployment (millions) 99.8 104.4 120.7 120.0 119.7 122.5 128.1
Total unemployment (millions) 169.7 174.8 196.4 194.0 192.3 195.4 201.5
Youth unemployment rate (%) 11.5 11.7 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.4 12.6
Adult unemployment rate (%) 4.0 4.1 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6
Total unemployment rate (%) 5.4 5.5 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.0
Ratio of youthtoadult unemployment
rates 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7

1u4
TableA2.Youthunemploymentrates20082018,byregionandsex(%)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p 2013p 2014p 2015p 2016p 2017p 2018p
WORLD 11.7 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.8
Male 11.5 12.5 12.3 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4
Female 11.9 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.3
Developed Economies and
European Union 13.3 17.4 18.1 17.6 18.1 17.9 17.5 17.0 16.5 16.1 15.9
Male 14.0 19.1 19.6 18.6 19.2 18.9 18.4 17.8 17.3 16.8 16.5
Female 12.4 15.5 16.5 16.5 16.8 16.8 16.6 16.1 15.7 15.3 15.1
Central and South-Eastern Europe
(non-EU) and CIS 17.0 20.4 19.3 17.9 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0
Male 16.7 20.2 19.0 17.5 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.7
Female 17.5 20.7 19.7 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.5 18.5 18.4 18.3 18.3
East Asia 9.1 9.2 8.9 9.2 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5
Male 10.7 10.8 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.4
Female 7.3 7.5 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.4
South-East Asia and the Pacific 14.4 14.3 13.8 13.1 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3
Male 14.0 14.1 13.1 12.5 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.5
Female 15.1 14.5 14.6 13.9 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.3
South Asia 8.5 9.4 9.7 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.8
Male 8.3 9.0 9.3 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.6
Female 8.9 10.3 10.6 10.0 10.0 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.5
Latin America and the Caribbean 13.5 15.4 14.0 13.3 12.9 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.6
Male 10.9 12.9 11.8 11.2 10.9 11.1 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2
Female 17.4 19.3 17.4 16.4 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.0
Middle East 25.3 25.5 27.4 27.7 28.3 29.1 29.6 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0
Male 21.7 22.2 23.7 23.8 24.5 25.2 25.6 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8
Female 39.3 38.2 41.7 42.1 42.6 43.5 44.1 44.5 44.6 44.7 44.7
North Africa 20.3 20.4 20.1 23.3 23.7 23.9 23.9 23.9 24.0 24.0 23.9
Male 16.8 16.0 15.7 17.8 18.3 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.9 18.8 18.8
Female 29.1 31.7 31.0 37.1 37.0 36.7 36.4 36.2 36.0 35.9 35.8
Sub-Saharan Africa 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7
Male 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9
Female 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5

1uS
TableA3.Changeinyouthunemploymentandunemploymentratesbetween1998and2008andbetween2008and2012,by
region

Change in youth
unemployment
(%), 19982008
Change in
number of
youth
unemployed,
19982008
Change in youth
unemployment
(percentage
point), 19982008
Change in
youth
unemployment
(%), 2008
2012
Change in
number of youth
unemployed,
20082012 ('000)
Change in youth
unemployment
(percentage point),
20082012
WORLD 0.5 368.0 -0.6 3.6 2527.7 0.7
European Union -12.3 -1193.4 -1.0 24.9 2127.7 4.8
Central and South-Eastern
Europe (non-EU) and CIS -21.3 -1243.7 -5.2 -5.7 -261.7 0.8
East Asia -5.4 -759.9 -0.5 -1.7 -227.1 0.4
South-East Asia and the
Pacific 23.7 1630.5 2.0 -11.0 -932.9 -1.4
South Asia 2.3 262.3 -0.4 5.6 656.7 0.8
Latin America and the
Caribbean -7.4 -610.0 -1.5 -5.1 -387.5 -0.6
Middle East 31.1 783.7 1.8 8.8 291.9 3.0
North Africa -7.2 -221.3 -3.8 13.8 395.1 3.4
Sub-Saharan Africa 21.0 1719.8 -1.0 8.7 865.5 0.0

1u6
TableA4.Youthlabourforceparticipationrates20082018,byregionandsex(%)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p 2013p 2014p 2015p 2016p 2017p 2018p
WORLD 50.1 49.4 48.8 48.6 48.5 48.3 48.2 48.0 47.8 47.7 47.5
Male 57.8 57.0 56.3 56.2 56.1 55.9 55.8 55.6 55.4 55.3 55.1
Female 41.9 41.3 40.8 40.7 40.5 40.3 40.1 39.9 39.7 39.5 39.4
European Union 50.0 48.7 47.5 47.1 47.3 47.5 47.6 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.6
Male 52.3 50.8 49.5 49.0 49.2 49.4 49.6 49.8 49.8 49.7 49.7
Female 47.5 46.6 45.5 45.1 45.3 45.4 45.5 45.6 45.6 45.5 45.3
(non-EU) and CIS 41.9 42.1 42.0 41.9 42.0 42.0 42.0 41.9 41.7 41.5 41.2
Male 49.2 49.3 49.3 49.4 49.6 49.8 49.8 49.7 49.6 49.4 49.2
Female 34.3 34.6 34.3 34.1 34.1 34.0 33.8 33.6 33.4 33.2 32.9
East Asia 60.8 60.6 60.3 60.2 59.8 59.3 58.7 58.3 58.0 57.8 57.8
Male 59.6 59.4 59.0 59.0 58.8 58.3 57.9 57.5 57.3 57.2 57.2
Female 62.1 61.9 61.7 61.5 61.1 60.4 59.7 59.2 58.8 58.6 58.4
Male 60.0 59.8 59.5 59.3 59.2 59.1 58.9 58.7 58.4 58.0 57.6
Female 45.8 45.4 45.2 45.1 45.1 45.0 45.0 44.8 44.6 44.4 44.1
South Asia 44.1 42.7 41.3 41.2 41.0 40.9 40.7 40.6 40.4 40.2 40.1
Male 61.0 59.4 57.8 57.6 57.3 57.1 56.9 56.7 56.4 56.2 55.9
Female 25.8 24.7 23.5 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.2 23.1 23.0 23.0
Male 63.7 62.8 62.9 62.4 62.1 61.9 61.7 61.4 61.2 61.0 60.8
Female 42.9 42.3 42.6 42.6 42.7 42.8 42.9 43.0 43.2 43.3 43.5
Middle East 30.5 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7
Male 47.0 46.7 46.7 46.6 46.5 46.3 46.0 45.8 45.5 45.2 45.0
Female 12.9 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.5
North Africa 34.1 33.7 33.6 33.5 33.4 33.3 33.2 33.1 33.0 32.9 32.8
Male 48.3 47.7 47.2 47.0 46.8 46.5 46.2 45.9 45.6 45.4 45.1
Female 19.6 19.3 19.5 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.8 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.1
Male 56.1 55.9 55.8 55.9 55.9 56.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 55.9 55.9
Female 51.7 51.5 51.4 51.4 51.4 51.3 51.3 51.2 51.1 51.0 50.9

1u7
TableA5.Globalandregionalyouthemploymenttopopulationratios,20082018(%)
Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p* 2013p 2014p 2015p 2016p 2017p 2018p
WORLD 44.2 43.1 42.7 42.7 42.5 42.3 42.1 41.9 41.7 41.6 41.4
Male 51.1 49.9 49.4 49.4 49.2 49.0 48.8 48.7 48.6 48.4 48.2
Female 36.9 36.0 35.6 35.5 35.3 35.1 34.8 34.6 34.5 34.3 34.2
European Union 43.3 40.3 38.9 38.8 38.7 39.0 39.3 39.6 39.8 40.0 40.0
Male 45.0 41.1 39.8 39.9 39.8 40.1 40.5 40.9 41.2 41.4 41.5
Female 41.6 39.4 38.0 37.7 37.7 37.8 38.0 38.2 38.4 38.5 38.5
(non-EU) and CIS 34.7 33.5 33.9 34.4 34.5 34.5 34.4 34.3 34.2 34.0 33.8
Male 41.0 39.3 40.0 40.7 41.0 41.0 41.0 40.9 40.8 40.7 40.4
Female 28.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.9
East Asia 55.3 55.0 55.0 54.7 54.2 53.5 52.8 52.4 52.0 51.8 51.7
Male 53.2 53.0 52.9 52.7 52.2 51.6 51.1 50.7 50.4 50.2 50.1
Female 57.6 57.2 57.3 57.0 56.4 55.6 54.9 54.4 53.9 53.7 53.5
Male 51.7 51.3 51.7 51.9 51.8 51.6 51.3 51.0 50.7 50.3 49.8
Female 38.9 38.8 38.6 38.9 38.8 38.7 38.5 38.3 38.0 37.7 37.3
South Asia 40.3 38.7 37.3 37.4 37.2 37.0 36.8 36.7 36.5 36.3 36.1
Male 55.9 54.1 52.4 52.4 52.2 51.9 51.6 51.3 51.1 50.8 50.6
Female 23.5 22.1 21.0 21.1 21.0 20.9 20.9 20.8 20.7 20.6 20.5
Male 56.7 54.7 55.5 55.4 55.4 55.1 54.8 54.6 54.4 54.2 54.0
Female 35.4 34.2 35.2 35.6 35.9 35.8 35.8 35.8 35.9 36.0 36.1
Middle East 22.8 22.6 22.0 21.9 21.7 21.4 21.2 21.0 20.9 20.9 20.8
Male 36.8 36.3 35.6 35.5 35.1 34.6 34.3 34.0 33.8 33.6 33.4
Female 7.9 7.9 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.5
North Africa 27.2 26.8 26.8 25.7 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.1 25.0 25.0
Male 40.2 40.1 39.8 38.7 38.2 37.9 37.5 37.3 37.0 36.8 36.6
Female 13.9 13.2 13.4 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.9
Male 49.9 49.7 49.6 49.7 49.7 49.8 49.8 49.8 49.9 49.8 49.8
Female 45.2 45.0 44.9 44.9 44.9 44.9 44.8 44.8 44.7 44.6 44.5

1u8
TableA6.Globalandregionalratiosofyouthtoadultunemploymentrates,20082018(%)
Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p* 2013p 2014p 2015p 2016p 2017p 2018p
WORLD 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
Male 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
Female 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6
European Union 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1
Male 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2
Female 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0
(non-EU) and CIS 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6
Male 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5
Female 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8
East Asia 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
Male 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
Female 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
Male 4.5 4.5 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6
Female 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3
South Asia 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8
Male 3.9 4.4 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1
Female 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2
Male 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5
Female 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
Middle East 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7
Male 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9
Female 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2
North Africa 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2
Male 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2
Female 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Male 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1
Female 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9

1u9
AnnexB.OECDcountrytables
TableB1.Youthunemploymentrates,secondquarter,20002012%
Country Sex 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Euro area (17
countries)
Total .. .. .. .. .. 17.9 16.5 15.1 15.3 19.8 20.77 20.3 22.6
Male .. .. .. .. .. 17.4 15.6 14.2 14.7 20.7 21.26 20.4 23.0
Female .. .. .. .. .. 18.6 17.7 16.2 15.9 18.9 20.19 20.2 22.1
European Union (27
countries)
Total .. .. .. .. .. 18.7 17.3 15.5 15.3 19.8 20.98 21.0 22.6
Male .. .. .. .. .. 18.6 17.1 15.2 15.1 21.0 21.69 21.3 23.3
Female .. .. .. .. .. 18.8 17.7 15.9 15.5 18.5 20.13 20.5 21.7
OECD - Total
Total .. .. .. .. .. 13.5 12.4 11.8 12.3 16.6 16.81 16.2 16.2
Male .. .. .. .. .. 13.8 12.6 12.0 12.5 17.9 17.73 16.6 16.7
Female .. .. .. .. .. 13.1 12.3 11.5 12.1 15.1 15.72 15.6 15.6
Australia
Total 12.2 13.8 12.8 12.3 11.3 10.7 10.2 8.9 9.0 11.9 11.54 11.1 11.5
Male 12.8 14.9 13.9 13.3 11.8 10.8 10.7 9.0 9.1 13.0 12.25 11.6 12.0
Female 11.5 12.5 11.6 11.1 10.6 10.5 9.6 8.9 8.9 10.7 10.8 10.5 11.0
Austria
Total 4.7 5.7 6.0 6.7 9.2 11.4 9.1 9.1 7.1 10.4 8.999 8.3 8.7
Male 3.9 6.4 6.4 6.8 8.8 11.8 8.8 8.1 7.0 11.0 9.347 8.1 8.6
Female 5.6 4.9 5.5 6.7 9.7 11.0 9.6 10.3 7.3 9.7 8.6 8.5 8.8
Belgium
Total 17.0 17.1 18.0 20.7 19.5 22.7 20.8 21.4 16.8 22.0 23.57 18.5 18.3
Male 14.3 15.8 17.5 21.4 17.3 22.0 19.9 17.9 16.6 20.6 23.72 17.8 18.0
Female 20.4 18.8 18.7 19.8 22.0 23.4 22.1 25.4 17.1 23.7 23.38 19.3 18.6
Canada
Total 12.5 12.6 13.8 13.6 13.4 12.7 11.2 11.2 11.7 15.1 14.93 14.1 14.4
Male 13.7 14.2 15.6 15.2 14.8 14.7 12.2 12.1 13.6 18.0 17.17 15.7 16.0
Female 11.2 10.8 11.8 11.8 11.9 10.6 10.1 10.3 9.7 12.1 12.63 12.4 12.7
Chile
Total .. .. .. .. .. 19.9 19.4 16.5 19.8 23.6 17.82 17.3 15.8
Male .. .. .. .. .. 17.4 17.6 15.0 17.4 22.7 16.13 14.5 13.7
Female .. .. .. .. .. 24.2 22.6 19.0 23.6 25.1 20.5 21.5 18.9
Czech Republic
Total 18.0 17.4 16.8 17.8 21.0 19.3 17.9 11.2 9.6 15.6 18.79 18.6 19.8
Male 18.5 17.4 17.2 17.1 22.4 19.0 16.6 11.2 9.9 15.5 18.89 17.9 20.3
Female 17.5 17.3 16.3 18.7 19.1 19.7 19.5 11.3 9.2 15.6 18.64 19.6 19.0
Denmark
Total 6.8 8.4 7.2 9.9 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.0 7.4 12.1 13.04 14.0 14.5
Male 6.5 7.3 8.8 10.6 8.5 6.1 7.7 7.2 6.1 13.6 15.34 16.2 14.8
Female 7.1 9.5 5.4 9.2 7.2 10.0 7.9 6.7 8.7 10.4 10.63 11.7 14.2
Estonia Total 22.9 24.0 17.0 23.9 23.4 17.7 11.9 12.2 9.1 26.6 38.57 23.4 24.3

11u
Male 24.2 17.1 14.0 20.2 23.2 21.5 9.3 14.1 11.1 33.5 39.58 25.3 29.5
Female 21.2 33.0 21.4 29.9 23.8 12.6 15.4 9.4 6.3 17.0 37.31 21.2 18.0
Finland
Total 21.4 19.9 21.3 21.0 20.8 20.3 19.6 16.2 16.6 21.8 21.36 19.9 18.3
Male 20.7 19.4 21.8 21.1 21.2 21.2 20.3 15.8 17.6 24.2 23.13 21.2 18.9
Female 22.0 20.5 20.7 20.9 20.3 19.5 18.9 16.6 15.7 19.5 19.6 18.5 17.6
France
Total .. .. .. 18.3 19.7 19.8 21.7 19.4 18.1 23.6 23.13 22.1 22.9
Male .. .. .. 17.4 18.7 18.9 20.5 18.7 18.0 24.6 22.01 21.4 23.5
Female .. .. .. 19.4 20.8 20.9 23.3 20.3 18.2 22.5 24.5 22.9 22.2
Germany
Total .. .. .. .. .. 15.7 13.5 12.2 10.8 11.5 9.665 8.6 8.2
Male .. .. .. .. .. 17.0 14.3 12.7 11.3 12.7 10.37 9.4 9.0
Female .. .. .. .. .. 14.1 12.5 11.5 10.3 10.1 8.858 7.8 7.2
Greece
Total 29.4 28.3 26.6 26.2 27.0 25.8 25.1 22.7 21.2 25.0 31.77 43.3 54.2
Male 22.3 21.5 19.8 18.9 19.6 18.4 18.4 15.3 16.2 18.9 25.54 37.3 47.3
Female 38.0 36.3 34.7 35.2 35.6 34.8 33.9 32.1 27.7 32.9 39.69 50.7 62.1
Hungary
Total 12.8 11.4 12.1 13.6 15.2 20.0 18.2 17.0 19.7 25.7 27.39 25.1 28.6
Male 14.1 12.1 13.0 14.1 15.3 20.9 17.3 16.6 18.1 27.5 29.34 26.2 30.0
Female 11.1 10.4 11.1 12.9 15.1 18.8 19.2 17.5 21.9 23.3 24.92 23.7 27.0
Iceland
Total .. .. .. 8.1 7.9 6.0 8.8 5.9 6.9 17.5 17.38 14.0 14.1
Male .. .. .. 7.3 11.4 4.8 9.2 7.7 6.9 22.7 20.13 18.2 13.4
Female .. .. .. 9.0 4.1 7.2 8.5 4.0 6.9 12.1 14.85 10.1 14.8
Ireland
Total 7.0 6.8 8.5 8.9 8.9 8.7 8.7 8.9 10.5 24.9 27.22 28.8 31.4
Male 6.7 7.0 9.3 9.5 9.3 9.4 9.1 9.6 13.1 32.0 33.44 34.8 37.7
Female 7.3 6.4 7.6 8.1 8.5 7.9 8.2 8.0 7.6 17.5 20.52 22.6 24.6
Israel
Total 15.8 18.8 20.5 21.2 20.3 16.7 18.9 16.1 14.0 15.3 12.45 12.3 12.2
Male 16.4 18.4 22.5 21.4 19.5 14.9 18.6 14.7 13.1 16.1 14.33 12.6 11.3
Female 15.3 19.1 18.5 21.0 21.1 18.2 19.2 17.3 14.7 14.5 10.76 12.0 13.1
Italy
Total 31.5 28.1 27.5 27.1 24.5 23.4 21.7 19.4 21.6 24.8 28.51 27.8 34.4
Male 28.3 25.0 24.2 24.0 20.7 21.4 19.1 17.9 18.8 22.6 28.21 24.2 33.5
Female 35.5 31.8 31.8 31.1 29.3 26.3 25.5 21.6 25.6 28.0 28.97 32.9 35.8
J apan
Total 8.8 9.5 9.9 10.6 9.5 8.7 8.4 7.2 7.0 8.9 9.933 8.3 8.2
Male 9.8 10.5 10.9 12.0 11.0 10.1 9.2 8.0 7.7 9.3 11.2 9.6 8.8
Female 7.8 8.3 9.0 9.2 7.9 7.4 7.6 6.3 6.2 8.4 8.8 7.0 7.6
Korea, Republic of
Total 10.7 10.0 8.3 9.7 10.9 10.1 9.5 9.1 9.5 9.8 9.894 9.3 9.6
Male 13.8 11.8 9.9 11.5 12.4 11.7 10.9 11.8 10.9 12.4 12.01 11.9 10.1
Female 8.7 8.9 7.2 8.5 9.9 9.1 8.7 7.4 8.6 8.2 8.622 7.6 9.2
Luxembourg
Total .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 11.6 13.5 13.3 17.37 19.6 15.4
Male .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 17.3 14.5 10.6 20.91 19.2 17.2

111
Female .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 0.0 12.3 16.6 13.37 20.2 12.8
Mexico
Total .. .. .. .. .. 7.1 6.7 7.3 7.5 10.4 9.845 10.2 9.7
Male .. .. .. .. .. 6.6 5.9 6.8 6.6 10.0 9.351 9.6 9.1
Female .. .. .. .. .. 8.1 8.1 8.1 9.1 11.3 10.74 11.2 10.6
Netherlands
Total 5.3 4.4 4.7 6.6 8.1 8.6 6.1 6.1 5.6 6.4 8.915 7.0 9.3
Male 4.9 4.4 4.5 6.9 8.1 8.6 5.7 5.7 5.3 6.9 9.159 7.0 8.5
Female 5.8 4.5 4.8 6.4 8.0 8.6 6.5 6.6 6.0 5.8 8.668 7.0 10.0
New Zealand
Total 13.7 11.8 11.7 10.2 10.8 9.6 9.5 9.5 10.8 16.4 18.29 17.5 16.4
Male 14.3 12.7 12.1 10.1 9.5 9.3 8.8 8.2 11.0 14.2 18.68 18.3 15.7
Female 13.1 10.8 11.2 10.2 12.4 10.1 10.3 10.9 10.6 19.0 17.86 16.7 17.2
Norway
Total 9.9 10.9 11.7 10.5 11.4 11.8 9.9 7.6 7.2 9.2 10.17 8.2 8.0
Male 9.8 11.3 12.8 11.2 12.8 12.3 10.1 8.9 8.1 10.5 12.39 9.3 9.6
Female 9.9 10.5 10.7 9.8 10.1 11.2 9.8 6.3 6.4 7.9 7.871 7.1 6.3
Poland
Total 35.8 39.3 41.8 41.6 40.4 38.9 30.4 22.0 17.4 19.5 23.51 25.1 25.8
Male 34.3 38.0 41.0 40.3 38.9 37.9 29.7 20.7 15.1 18.7 21.78 23.4 23.2
Female 37.6 40.9 42.9 43.4 42.2 40.2 31.2 23.6 20.2 20.6 25.86 27.6 29.4
Portugal
Total 8.5 9.1 10.6 13.8 14.9 16.5 16.0 16.4 15.7 20.5 22.2 29.5 38.7
Male 5.7 6.8 9.5 11.1 13.1 14.2 14.9 12.6 12.2 19.7 21.65 28.0 36.0
Female 11.9 12.0 12.0 17.1 17.3 19.5 17.5 21.0 19.8 21.4 22.82 31.2 41.7
Slovakia
Total 37.5 39.4 38.3 33.6 33.5 29.2 27.2 20.2 20.2 26.3 33.13 33.0 33.2
Male 40.5 42.9 39.2 35.2 35.2 30.3 26.6 21.1 20.4 27.0 33.6 32.6 33.9
Female 34.1 35.3 37.1 31.7 31.5 27.8 28.0 19.0 19.9 25.1 32.43 33.8 32.2
Slovenia
Total 17.6 17.0 16.3 16.8 15.5 14.3 15.8 9.1 10.6 13.5 16.77 14.5 18.8
Male 16.0 16.3 14.9 14.7 12.6 12.5 14.9 8.8 9.4 12.0 17.52 13.9 18.7
Female 19.8 18.0 18.0 19.8 19.1 16.8 16.9 9.6 12.3 15.6 15.71 15.3 19.1
Spain
Total 25.9 21.2 21.8 22.6 22.5 20.1 18.0 17.9 23.1 37.3 41.11 45.3 52.4
Male 20.3 17.0 17.4 19.5 19.4 17.3 15.0 14.8 21.7 39.0 42.58 47.3 53.5
Female 32.8 26.8 27.7 26.7 26.7 23.7 21.8 21.8 24.9 35.3 39.34 43.1 51.2
Sweden
Total .. 11.3 12.3 13.4 16.9 24.9 22.5 19.2 20.5 24.2 24.82 22.8 23.2
Male .. 12.2 12.8 14.4 17.9 24.9 22.5 18.7 20.5 25.3 26.19 22.9 24.7
Female .. 10.4 11.8 12.4 15.8 24.9 22.5 19.8 20.5 23.1 23.37 22.6 21.7
Switzerland
Total 5.0 5.6 5.6 8.5 7.7 8.8 7.7 7.1 7.0 8.5 7.183 5.8 6.1
Male 5.8 5.7 7.1 8.3 8.0 8.5 7.9 6.9 6.7 8.0 6.831 6.3 6.0
Female 4.1 5.5 3.9 8.7 7.4 9.1 7.5 7.4 7.4 9.0 7.571 5.4 6.2
Turkey
Total .. .. .. .. .. .. 15.9 17.1 16.6 24.7 19.5 17.7 15.7
Male .. .. .. .. .. .. 15.9 16.7 15.9 24.9 19.31 16.2 14.9
Female .. .. .. .. .. .. 16.1 17.8 17.9 24.5 19.85 20.4 17.4

112
United Kingdom
Total 13.0 11.2 11.9 12.3 11.5 12.3 14.3 14.7 14.4 19.4 19.5 20.6 21.3
Male 14.2 12.5 13.6 13.9 12.4 13.8 16.1 16.2 16.3 22.2 21.71 22.6 24.2
Female 11.7 9.8 9.9 10.5 10.6 10.6 12.3 12.9 12.3 16.1 17.03 18.4 18.0
United States
Total 9.4 10.2 11.9 12.9 11.9 11.5 10.2 10.3 12.3 17.5 18.63 17.3 16.3
Male 9.7 11.1 12.6 13.9 12.8 12.5 11.1 11.4 13.4 20.1 21 18.9 17.9
Female 9.1 9.2 11.1 11.8 10.9 10.5 9.2 9.0 11.1 14.7 16.1 15.7 14.6
Brazil
Total .. .. 22.6 25.3 24.7 22.2 22.2 21.8 18.0 18.8 16.22 14.4 13.7
Male .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Female .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Africa
Total .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 44.5 48.1 51.18 49.7 51.2
Male .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Female .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. = not available.

11S
TableB2.Shareofunemployedyouthwhoareunemployedforatleast6months,bothsexes,20002011(%)
Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Australia 32.2 29.8 27.3 25.6 24.8 22.4 23.6 21.3 20.0 23.4 26.4 26.2
Austria 26.7 27.5 17.5 28.1 36.2 30.9 33.2 32.3 29.2 30.8 35.0 31.6
Belgium 54.2 55.0 47.4 46.8 45.3 46.3 45.9 48.2 42.9 45.3 52.7 48.3
Canada 8.5 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.0 7.0 5.7 5.0 5.2 8.1 9.8 10.2
Czech Republic 60.8 60.4 56.6 56.4 59.7 60.4 61.7 53.7 52.1 43.7 53.0 53.2
Denmark 6.1 12.8 14.4 20.2 15.2 12.3 13.2 11.0 8.2 12.6 18.4 24.6
Estonia 41.6 48.2 46.5 48.8 51.9 43.6 34.2 38.8 37.1 47.5 60.5 54.2
Finland 19.1 16.0 16.5 15.7 16.2 15.8 13.8 15.8 9.6 13.7 16.8 12.9
France 42.3 42.1 39.2 43.5 41.9 43.5 45.0 43.0 41.2 46.7 48.2 47.1
Germany 48.0 45.0 47.6 50.8 50.2 52.4 52.3 51.0 47.0 46.2 45.1 41.7
Greece 71.0 64.8 67.3 68.0 68.5 64.7 69.0 62.2 57.5 50.7 55.1 60.6
Hungary 61.0 56.2 57.1 55.5 57.6 59.2 59.8 59.8 55.6 57.4 65.9 59.1
Iceland .. 9.6 20.2 7.5 6.9 3.4 3.9 .. 3.2 14.2 27.8 20.6
Ireland .. 38.4 37.5 40.0 42.0 38.4 39.2 36.3 36.6 48.7 60.6 63.8
Israel 18.6 17.4 20.3 25.1 26.9 25.7 26.7 24.3 21.9 23.2 22.9 18.1
Italy 78.7 78.5 73.2 72.9 56.8 59.7 58.3 54.7 52.9 58.1 61.1 63.2
J apan 40.0 34.9 40.3 40.9 44.8 41.8 38.8 37.8 35.7 39.2 49.0 50.0
Korea 8.9 8.8 9.2 5.9 8.3 8.7 9.0 8.8 8.1 5.1 .. 3.4
Luxembourg 24.2 29.1 33.8 23.7 38.6 32.1 47.9 39.2 46.3 36.3 39.1 42.7
Mexico 3.9 3.0 3.8 3.3 3.0 5.7 4.2 3.4 2.9 4.1 4.2 3.3
Netherlands .. .. 20.7 30.2 34.5 38.5 37.1 31.3 25.3 26.3 28.8 28.7
New Zealand 24.7 20.2 16.2 18.0 15.6 11.8 14.0 11.2 10.0 16.4 20.1 21.1
Norway 6.7 4.5 7.8 9.1 7.7 8.6 13.9 12.7 7.2 11.7 17.0 17.8
Poland 53.7 58.3 62.8 61.2 58.6 59.9 56.2 49.1 34.4 33.5 36.3 42.7
Portugal 41.9 42.2 40.7 43.7 49.3 52.2 48.7 46.3 43.3 48.2 50.8 46.0
Slovakia 66.9 67.6 70.5 68.1 68.5 73.9 72.5 68.2 65.8 57.8 70.0 70.7
Slovenia .. .. 63.4 60.6 59.7 55.2 56.1 46.7 37.0 40.5 50.7 52.6
Spain 53.9 49.3 43.4 45.2 42.8 28.2 24.2 23.7 25.5 41.2 49.8 53.2
Sweden 18.2 16.1 18.6 17.8 20.0 .. .. 12.2 11.2 15.0 19.0 15.8
Turkey 35.0 34.8 43.0 38.5 56.2 53.4 49.3 44.2 40.1 41.6 40.9 37.3
United Kingdom 30.2 30.0 24.4 24.3 26.7 27.9 30.5 31.1 31.5 38.9 43.5 43.9
United States 7.3 8.2 11.3 13.6 14.2 12.9 11.9 12.0 13.9 23.3 29.7 30.1
Russian Federation 53.2 45.4 45.9 44.4 45.9 45.1 47.5 47.6 38.3 36.9 36.0 40.4

114
OECD countries 34.6 32.6 32.9 32.9 33.3 32.9 31.5 28.5 26.0 31.1 35.2 35.3
OECD Europe 50.4 49.3 48.3 47.6 48.1 47.3 45.7 41.4 37.5 41.8 45.2 45.6

.. = not available.

11S
TableB3.NEETratesinOECDeconomies,agegroup1529,20002010(%)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Australia 13.2 13.0 12.7 12.6 12.3 11.4 11.4 10.5 10.4 12.3 11.8
Austria .. .. 10.2 9.5 11.7 11.0 11.6 10.7 10.4 11.1 11.1
Belgium 12.9 11.7 14.0 14.4 14.0 14.2 13.9 12.7 12.1 12.7 14.2
Brazil .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 19.9 19.0 19.6 ..
Canada 13.7 13.1 13.6 12.9 13.0 12.4 12.0 12.1 11.7 13.3 13.5
Czech Republic 18.5 17.4 16.9 16.9 17.2 15.9 14.1 11.7 10.9 12.8 13.2
Denmark 5.8 6.2 5.6 8.9 8.6 8.2 6.2 7.1 6.9 9.0 10.5
Estonia .. .. .. 15.1 15.3 14.8 11.4 13.0 11.3 19.0 19.1
Finland .. .. .. 11.6 12.4 10.9 10.4 10.1 9.9 12.0 12.6
France 15.0 14.5 14.7 14.1 14.6 14.5 15.2 14.5 14.0 15.6 16.7
Germany 13.3 13.1 12.6 12.9 13.5 14.7 13.6 12.6 11.6 11.6 12.0
Greece 21.5 19.9 20.3 19.6 20.7 19.7 16.9 16.8 16.2 16.8 18.3
Hungary 20.2 18.9 19.5 18.8 17.1 17.2 17.0 15.6 16.3 17.7 18.9
Iceland 4.1 3.4 5.1 7.6 5.0 6.8 3.9 5.3 4.3 9.6 10.3
Ireland 9.0 9.0 10.3 10.8 10.7 10.5 10.4 10.7 12.8 18.6 21.0
Israel .. .. 31.5 32.3 30.5 29.6 29.4 29.7 27.5 28.7 27.4
Italy 23.3 22.2 20.7 18.6 20.5 21.1 20.1 20.0 19.2 21.2 23.0
J apan 8.8 8.4 9.5 9.8 9.2 8.8 9.1 7.6 7.4 8.5 9.9
Korea, Republic of .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 18.5 19.0 19.2
Luxembourg 8.1 8.2 7.5 7.0 8.7 7.3 8.6 8.9 8.5 7.9 7.1
Mexico 24.6 24.6 24.2 24.8 24.2 24.9 24.2 24.2 23.9 24.8 24.4
Netherlands 8.3 7.7 7.9 8.7 8.2 8.2 7.1 6.7 5.1 7.0 7.2
New Zealand .. .. .. .. 13.5 12.6 12.7 13.2 13.2 16.1 16.3
Norway 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.7 8.6 8.1 7.9 7.5 6.8 8.0 8.5
Poland 22.1 20.7 21.0 20.5 20.3 18.4 17.4 15.5 13.7 14.2 15.2
Portugal 10.5 9.9 10.7 12.1 12.7 12.9 12.4 13.4 12.2 12.8 13.5
Slovakia 30.4 31.4 26.8 23.9 21.8 20.5 19.1 17.2 16.2 16.1 18.8
Slovenia .. .. .. 10.0 9.2 10.1 10.8 10.1 8.5 9.0 8.8
Spain 15.3 14.2 14.6 14.6 14.6 17.2 15.9 15.7 16.8 22.7 23.7
Sweden 7.9 7.3 7.9 8.4 9.5 9.2 10.5 9.6 8.7 11.0 10.3
Switzerland 8.3 8.9 9.5 11.4 10.2 10.4 10.0 10.2 9.6 10.5 9.7
Turkey 37.8 38.9 39.6 41.1 41.9 43.6 42.6 41.3 42.0 39.6 36.6
United Kingdom 13.3 13.1 13.3 13.6 13.5 14.2 15.1 14.9 14.8 15.7 15.9

116
United States 12.2 13.3 13.4 .. 13.9 13.1 12.8 13.1 14.6 16.9 16.1
OECD average 15.1 14.7 15.3 15.2 15.1 15.0 14.3 14.0 13.7 15.4 15.8

.. = not available.
Note: Age gioup 1S24 foi }apan.
Souice: 0ECB, Euucation at a ulance 2u12.

117
TableB4.Incidenceofparttimework,youth,20002011(%)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Australia .. 41.3 41.9 42.3 41.8 41.4 40.6 40.5 40.3 43.0 43.2 43.4
Austria 6.1 6.8 6.3 7.0 10.2 12.8 11.7 14.4 15.2 14.6 15.9 16.4
Belgium 18.0 15.1 15.3 16.0 18.0 18.9 17.2 16.8 17.6 20.3 18.0 20.8
Canada 43.7 43.6 45.0 45.4 44.8 44.8 44.3 44.8 45.0 47.0 48.1 48.1
Chile 5.5 6.8 6.3 7.3 8.9 9.7 10.7 11.3 13.4 16.3 26.0 24.2
Czech Republic 2.2 2.3 1.9 2.5 2.1 2.3 3.0 4.1 4.5 6.8 7.6 6.2
Denmark 44.5 42.9 46.1 49.0 52.7 53.1 55.0 51.5 55.2 58.2 59.5 59.7
Estonia 8.7 8.2 9.6 10.3 9.2 12.5 10.6 10.0 10.7 13.9 18.1 13.6
Finland 29.3 29.5 29.6 30.6 31.2 33.2 31.8 31.4 32.3 34.5 34.0 34.2
France 18.7 17.1 16.2 14.8 15.6 16.6 17.3 17.2 17.4 17.4 17.6 17.6
Germany 11.3 12.2 12.6 13.2 13.7 15.9 17.2 18.2 18.7 18.4 17.6 19.3
Greece 6.7 5.8 5.7 5.7 7.3 9.0 11.5 10.6 11.6 12.4 14.5 15.5
Hungary 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.1 2.8 3.1 2.8 3.5 3.4 4.5 4.8 7.4
Iceland 39.4 42.3 47.7 32.3 33.8 35.6 35.6 36.3 35.4 43.5 45.5 44.3
Ireland 22.4 21.0 20.3 21.9 21.2 21.7 21.3 22.5 24.5 33.2 39.6 44.5
Israel 21.8 23.0 23.7 24.3 24.8 25.1 25.0 24.4 24.2 25.1 22.6 23.1
Italy 10.6 10.6 8.9 9.3 15.6 14.5 15.5 16.7 18.3 18.8 21.5 21.1
J apan .. .. 23.5 24.1 24.6 25.4 24.7 25.5 25.8 27.4 29.0 29.5
Korea, Republic of 8.0 9.4 9.7 11.9 12.2 13.8 14.9 16.9 18.4 21.0 22.9 26.3
Luxembourg 10.4 7.1 5.1 4.4 5.4 4.4 4.9 3.9 4.0 17.7 14.4 16.6
Mexico 14.9 15.8 16.1 16.2 17.6 20.1 20.2 21.0 21.5 22.0 23.1 22.6
Netherlands 53.2 53.6 54.5 56.0 57.0 59.2 59.5 61.4 61.7 63.9 65.2 65.8
New Zealand 38.5 37.3 38.3 37.0 36.9 37.1 35.7 39.3 39.4 41.1 41.3 39.6
Norway 41.3 43.2 43.8 47.0 47.8 47.6 48.8 46.0 47.4 48.7 48.9 49.3
Poland 15.6 17.5 18.1 17.9 19.8 19.5 16.3 14.2 11.9 11.3 12.4 12.6
Portugal 5.6 5.6 5.9 7.2 7.1 7.3 7.1 8.2 8.8 9.8 11.2 15.0
Slovakia 1.2 1.1 1.3 2.1 2.7 2.7 3.2 3.0 3.6 4.5 7.7 6.6
Slovenia .. .. 14.9 17.1 23.2 25.9 25.8 26.6 28.2 31.7 36.7 35.6
Spain 13.2 12.7 12.5 13.0 14.1 18.7 19.1 19.5 21.7 23.8 28.3 31.1
Sweden 31.8 32.7 33.6 35.6 38.3 36.1 36.2 34.7 35.8 38.4 37.9 36.6
Switzerland 18.6 19.6 17.3 17.6 17.4 17.4 18.7 18.9 19.9 20.7 17.8 17.8
Turkey 10.6 6.5 6.1 5.7 6.4 5.5 7.4 7.2 8.0 11.4 11.9 12.4
United Kingdom 31.8 32.5 31.7 33.0 32.9 32.7 33.0 32.3 32.9 35.7 37.4 37.0

118
United States 33.1 33.3 34.1 34.6 34.9 34.2 33.8 34.0 35.1 38.3 38.1 34.6
Brazil .. 19.2 20.3 20.7 21.1 21.6 22.2 21.0 20.2 21.0 .. ..
South Africa .. 14.6 14.8 14.6 9.4 10.9 13.9 10.0 9.0 8.5 8.9 8.7
Europe 18.0 17.7 17.7 18.4 19.7 20.6 21.3 21.5 22.3 23.8 24.5 25.0
G7 countries 24.2 24.5 28.7 29.2 29.9 29.8 29.8 30.1 30.8 32.8 33.0 31.8
North America 28.4 29.0 29.7 30.2 30.7 31.1 30.9 31.2 32.0 34.3 33.9 32.0
OECD countries 20.8 21.4 24.1 24.7 25.6 26.3 26.4 26.8 27.5 29.4 29.8 29.3

.. = not available.

119
TableB5.Incidenceoftemporaryemployment,youth,20002011(%)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Australia .. 4.6 .. .. 3.7 .. 4.5 .. .. .. .. ..
Austria 33.0 33.2 34.8 31.8 33.2 34.7 35.2 34.9 34.9 35.6 37.0 37.2
Belgium 30.9 26.4 27.9 30.2 31.0 32.1 30.0 31.6 29.5 33.2 30.4 34.3
Canada 29.1 30.1 29.7 28.3 29.4 29.9 29.3 28.8 27.2 27.8 30.0 30.5
Chile .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 47.5 45.8
Czech Republic 19.6 19.7 19.7 22.3 21.0 18.3 18.9 17.4 15.6 18.8 22.5 22.3
Denmark 29.8 26.9 27.0 26.4 25.7 26.9 22.4 22.5 23.6 22.8 21.1 22.1
Estonia .. .. 7.9 8.1 8.1 9.2 7.3 6.6 6.0 8.3 11.6 13.8
Finland 45.6 45.1 44.3 45.9 44.7 44.2 44.2 42.4 39.7 39.0 43.1 43.4
France 55.0 52.2 48.5 48.1 48.8 49.4 51.6 53.5 52.5 52.4 54.9 55.0
Germany 52.4 52.1 51.4 53.0 55.5 58.2 57.5 57.4 56.8 57.3 57.2 56.0
Greece 28.8 28.2 26.6 24.9 26.6 26.5 25.0 27.0 29.2 28.4 30.4 30.1
Hungary 13.9 14.9 14.7 16.4 15.2 17.2 16.9 19.1 20.0 21.4 24.9 22.9
Iceland 28.9 21.8 21.5 29.1 28.5 28.9 30.4 32.0 27.8 26.9 31.3 32.8
Ireland 12.3 .. 15.2 15.5 13.7 11.6 15.1 20.5 22.0 25.0 30.4 34.2
Italy 26.2 23.3 27.1 27.4 34.6 37.0 40.9 42.3 43.3 44.4 46.7 49.9
J apan 24.9 25.5 26.8 27.2 27.8 27.9 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.5 26.6 26.4
Korea, Republic of .. .. .. .. 30.3 34.6 31.7 30.0 29.4 32.5 30.1 27.3
Luxembourg 14.5 19.5 16.6 12.4 24.1 29.3 33.2 34.1 39.3 39.4 36.5 34.5
Mexico 25.7 24.2 25.5 25.8 26.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Netherlands 35.4 36.5 36.3 37.4 38.8 41.7 43.6 45.1 45.2 46.5 48.3 47.8
Norway 28.5 27.9 28.4 22.1 30.0 27.8 28.7 27.3 25.5 25.0 26.5 23.7
Poland .. 35.5 46.5 55.8 63.1 66.5 67.3 65.7 62.8 62.0 64.6 65.6
Portugal 41.5 42.6 46.2 45.7 46.5 45.6 49.3 52.6 54.2 53.5 55.6 57.2
Slovakia 10.5 12.0 12.4 11.5 11.9 12.8 14.3 13.7 12.6 12.5 17.1 18.6
Slovenia .. .. 54.3 55.1 65.0 62.5 64.2 68.3 69.8 66.6 69.6 74.5
Spain 68.6 66.5 65.0 64.5 65.7 66.5 66.1 62.8 59.4 55.9 58.6 61.4
Sweden 49.5 47.8 49.9 50.9 52.5 55.3 58.4 57.3 53.8 53.4 57.1 57.5
Switzerland 47.0 48.8 48.9 47.7 46.9 49.6 51.4 50.3 50.6 53.1 51.7 51.6
Turkey 23.7 22.5 17.9 17.7 9.3 12.4 13.4 12.4 12.5 15.0 17.2 18.4
United Kingdom 13.2 13.5 12.9 12.5 11.0 12.3 12.8 13.3 12.0 11.9 13.7 13.5
United States .. 8.1 .. .. .. 8.1 .. .. .. .. .. ..

12u
Europe 36.2 35.8 35.6 36.2 36.6 38.3 39.3 39.6 38.7 39.2 40.6 40.5
G7 countries 21.1 20.1 20.0 20.1 20.5 21.6 21.8 22.1 21.7 21.5 22.1 22.1
North America 15.2 13.7 13.9 13.8 14.1 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.3 14.3 14.5 14.5
OECD countries 24.3 23.3 23.5 23.7 23.9 25.1 25.5 25.6 25.1 24.9 25.4 25.3

.. = not available.

121
AnnexC.Skillsmismatchtables
TableC1.Skillsmismatchbetweenlaboursupplyanddemand,youth,20002011(%)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Change
2010-
2011
Austria 12.0 14.7 6.8 13.2 21.6 17.2 19.0 18.6 20.6 17.2 13.5 17.3 3.8
Belgium 18.0 31.6 22.5 19.1 14.0 12.8 14.5 15.8 16.9 11.6 19.4 20.6 1.2
Bulgaria 13.8 21.3 17.9 17.5 17.8 22.9 23.2 19.9 23.3 18.3 13.1 15.0 1.9
Cyprus 10.1 3.8 11.9 18.9 18.2 0.3 11.2 7.3 3.6 8.2 5.9 9.2 3.3
Czech Republic 18.8 19.4 18.0 18.8 20.0 16.5 16.6 19.9 27.7 18.9 16.3 18.7 2.4
Denmark 5.8 5.5 15.4 15.4 4.4 4.7 8.0 10.7 10.4 7.1 7.8 9.0 1.2
Estonia 25.6 9.2 34.0 14.9 16.1 11.4 15.7 26.2 15.3 21.2 14.3 10.7 -3.6
Finland 26.7 24.1 29.9 26.7 27.3 17.9 20.9 22.8 25.9 20.3 19.7 23.3 3.6
France 19.4 22.8 18.7 15.6 17.7 15.6 17.8 19.3 18.5 19.4 19.1 18.7 -0.4
Germany 8.3 6.2 4.0 4.3 2.2 8.2 12.3 16.7 14.7 12.9 16.5 18.5 2.0
Greece 8.0 6.8 8.3 8.5 5.1 9.1 5.9 9.1 5.7 5.5 6.2 2.6 -3.6
Hungary 13.6 14.9 14.8 20.3 17.4 14.4 16.7 15.9 16.3 18.7 14.2 15.1 0.9
Ireland 30.3 22.5 19.4 18.9 25.8 20.5 18.1 20.6 18.2 14.0 15.1 16.0 0.9
Italy 0.7 2.0 3.5 4.7 10.1 6.2 6.1 5.0 5.0 4.4 5.2 5.8 0.6
Latvia 19.4 19.3 19.1 14.2 11.0 25.9 26.1 16.7 17.3 18.7 12.2 12.2 0.0
Lithuania 12.6 12.2 9.6 11.6 5.9 11.0 4.9 5.7 16.3 13.5 11.5 10.6 -0.9
Luxembourg 14.8 14.6 29.7 11.8 15.5 19.3 22.7 20.9 14.6 15.8 23.3 22.7 -0.6
Netherlands 22.6 18.2 17.4 17.3 18.3 18.5 22.2 20.7 18.9 16.8 17.2 19.3 2.1
Norway 23.4 22.6 26.4 20.6 9.4 20.9 16.6 21.0 21.4 14.8 14.9 15.3 0.4
Poland 1.0 2.5 2.8 5.2 2.5 2.9 4.0 0.9 2.7 2.7 4.3 3.9 -0.4
Portugal 0.7 2.6 1.9 0.9 5.3 4.2 5.7 5.2 7.0 3.6 2.2 5.8 3.6
Romania 17.2 14.2 9.3 11.7 5.7 8.7 3.7 3.4 4.5 2.7 12.0 8.5 -3.5
Slovakia 8.7 10.2 10.2 11.3 18.2 23.0 25.5 26.9 25.7 14.7 13.3 12.4 -0.9
Slovenia 13.1 14.0 14.9 10.8 6.3 6.9 6.2 6.5 3.5 9.1 10.0 13.9 3.9
Spain 2.0 1.3 0.3 3.2 2.5 7.3 6.9 8.2 15.3 16.2 17.7 14.3 -3.4

122
Sweden 7.8 24.2 20.9 20.4 18.1 21.3 23.8 25.2 27.2 23.2 24.1 23.1 -1.0
Switzerland 4.2 21.2 0.7 1.3 7.7 5.9 4.2 4.6 1.7 3.7 1.4 1.6 0.2
United Kingdom 25.5 26.7 26.0 26.1 27.7 23.3 22.4 24.4 24.7 20.1 19.3 18.3 -1.0
Average 13.7 14.6 14.8 13.7 13.3 13.5 14.3 14.9 15.1 13.3 13.2 13.7 0.5

Souice: IL0 calculations baseu on Euiostat.

12S
TableC2a.Unemploymentrateofyouthwithprimaryeducation,bothsexes,20002011(%)
Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Change
2010-
2011
Austria 8.3 8.4 8.5 10.1 17.8 15.2 13.4 12.4 12.1 14.3 11.8 12.0 0.2
Belgium 24.2 30.3 27.0 30.5 25.8 30.0 30.1 29.1 28.4 30.2 35.9 31.0 -4.9
Bulgaria 44.6 59.5 51.9 41.4 37.5 39.9 37.8 29.5 28.3 31.8 39.5 49.2 9.7
Cyprus 11.5 9.1 10.3 10.7 13.1 13.9 7.8 12.7 8.5 8.5 13.2 13.9 0.7
Czech Republic 44.2 41.1 40.5 48.7 53.8 47.9 43.4 31.3 35.0 41.2 43.1 45.4 2.3
Denmark 6.2 9.3 9.4 12.2 7.2 9.3 8.5 8.8 9.3 13.1 15.5 16.3 0.8
Estonia 41.4 30.3 37.1 34.0 32.5 22.0 18.4 18.3 18.4 44.3 46.9 30.8 -16.1
Finland 43.4 38.8 43.5 42.0 41.7 28.4 27.9 25.8 26.6 31.7 31.3 31.5 0.2
France 31.2 29.7 29.2 26.1 30.8 30.4 33.1 30.2 29.9 37.0 36.2 35.2 -1.0
Germany 9.7 8.7 10.1 11.9 13.1 17.8 16.9 15.7 13.7 14.2 13.4 12.0 -1.4
Greece 24.1 23.8 21.6 20.3 22.8 19.3 21.7 17.8 19.0 22.3 31.3 43.3 12.0
Hungary 21.3 19.4 21.0 26.5 25.7 31.0 31.7 30.4 33.4 45.9 41.5 42.0 0.5
Ireland 13.0 11.1 13.5 14.3 17.0 15.9 15.6 17.5 23.8 39.4 44.6 49.0 4.4
Italy 31.7 28.6 28.4 28.9 28.6 26.2 24.1 22.5 23.4 27.3 30.9 32.8 1.9
Latvia 32.1 32.0 36.3 23.7 24.5 23.6 22.1 16.7 20.7 49.7 45.7 40.4 -5.3
Lithuania 37.3 42.6 26.6 36.0 19.6 18.1 12.6 10.9 26.7 46.9 54.1 47.0 -7.1
Luxembourg 8.9 8.7 12.1 15.2 20.8 18.2 23.3 21.0 22.6 24.6 22.4 25.9 3.5
Netherlands 7.4 5.7 5.9 8.8 10.7 11.2 9.4 8.4 7.2 8.8 11.8 10.7 -1.1
Norway 18.7 21.2 22.3 19.4 16.8 19.2 11.2 10.1 10.2 11.2 11.4 10.8 -0.6
Poland 37.0 38.2 43.1 38.6 41.6 41.2 36.2 22.8 20.6 24.5 30.1 31.7 1.6
Portugal 8.2 8.6 10.4 13.4 14.9 15.5 15.2 16.2 15.8 20.3 22.3 32.6 10.3
Romania 11.6 12.1 18.2 15.3 20.9 16.3 19.6 18.6 20.3 19.4 15.8 18.7 2.9
Slovakia 77.0 80.3 75.3 69.6 73.7 76.7 74.1 66.1 62.3 64.5 67.4 63.6 -3.8
Slovenia 26.4 25.4 26.0 25.6 18.1 20.7 17.1 13.3 10.8 18.9 19.7 25.0 5.3
Spain 24.6 20.5 21.7 23.3 23.2 21.8 19.8 20.4 29.7 44.7 49.6 53.2 3.6
Sweden 11.3 17.9 18.7 20.9 25.9 33.2 32.5 29.5 31.2 38.0 38.9 38.6 -0.3
Switzerland 4.6 7.4 5.6 8.3 8.8 9.5 7.1 7.8 6.8 8.1 7.7 7.8 0.1
United Kingdom 21.5 19.5 20.1 21.5 19.9 22.6 25.1 26.4 28.0 32.7 34.1 36.2 2.1

Souice: Euiostat online uatabase.

124
TableC2b.Unemploymentrateofyouthwithsecondaryeducation,bothsexes,20002011(%)
Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Change
2010-
2011
Austria 5.4 4.9 6.6 6.3 8.1 8.0 6.5 6.2 5.7 7.5 7.0 6.2 -0.8
Belgium 14.4 9.7 13.3 18.3 17.2 19.7 18.0 17.5 16.2 20.5 19.9 15.5 -4.4
Bulgaria 30.4 33.3 31.0 23.1 19.7 17.5 15.3 12.3 9.6 14.1 21.2 23.6 2.4
Cyprus 11.3 7.6 5.9 5.4 6.0 13.9 8.9 9.0 8.3 13.7 17.4 23.0 5.6
Czech Republic 14.1 13.2 13.0 13.9 16.7 16.4 14.9 8.6 7.1 13.7 15.7 15.2 -0.5
Denmark 7.5 7.6 5.4 6.6 7.7 8.0 6.3 5.7 6.2 10.3 11.5 11.5 0.0
Estonia 17.4 21.8 12.4 23.4 18.5 16.2 10.7 7.2 10.3 24.9 31.3 21.0 -10.3
Finland 20.5 19.4 18.9 19.7 18.9 16.1 14.1 11.8 11.2 16.8 16.9 14.9 -2.0
France 17.7 15.1 16.1 14.7 17.7 17.9 18.6 16.1 16.8 21.0 20.1 19.4 -0.7
Germany 7.0 7.1 8.9 10.5 13.4 13.6 11.1 8.8 8.1 9.2 7.4 6.0 -1.4
Greece 31.8 30.1 28.7 28.0 27.4 27.6 26.1 23.7 23.2 26.6 31.4 43.8 12.4
Hungary 11.0 9.4 10.0 10.5 12.0 17.1 15.7 15.6 16.9 22.5 23.3 23.0 -0.3
Ireland 4.2 4.9 6.4 6.9 6.3 6.5 7.3 7.3 11.2 23.0 26.3 27.9 1.6
Italy 31.7 27.1 25.8 25.5 21.3 22.0 19.9 19.0 19.9 24.1 26.5 27.3 0.8
Latvia 17.8 19.1 21.1 14.6 18.4 10.1 8.8 9.4 11.1 29.1 33.2 32.0 -1.2
Lithuania 26.1 30.5 18.3 26.8 23.0 17.4 9.8 8.2 11.1 29.0 33.9 33.3 -0.6
Luxembourg 4.8 4.8 4.2 9.4 12.7 9.1 11.1 9.0 15.0 13.2 9.7 12.3 2.6
Netherlands 2.8 2.3 2.8 4.5 5.6 5.7 4.2 3.9 3.5 4.6 6.4 5.3 -1.1
Norway 7.0 7.8 7.6 8.9 11.3 8.8 6.1 4.6 4.2 6.2 6.3 5.9 -0.4
Poland 35.7 39.9 42.2 42.9 40.6 37.0 29.5 21.7 16.9 20.2 23.1 25.4 2.3
Portugal 8.4 9.8 9.6 12.9 11.2 15.3 16.0 14.8 14.4 18.2 21.3 27.3 6.0
Romania 22.0 21.0 25.0 22.8 24.0 22.5 22.0 21.0 17.5 20.9 24.6 25.4 0.8
Slovakia 35.0 36.7 35.6 30.6 28.6 25.1 21.4 15.3 14.6 24.3 30.6 30.7 0.1
Slovenia 14.5 13.5 12.4 13.8 13.1 14.8 12.9 9.4 10.1 12.3 12.9 13.4 0.5
Spain 25.7 21.5 21.5 22.0 21.0 17.2 16.1 16.6 19.6 31.1 34.3 41.5 7.2
Sweden 9.4 7.1 8.4 10.1 13.6 16.0 14.5 12.1 11.8 18.4 18.7 18.0 -0.7
Switzerland 5.4 3.3 5.5 8.5 7.0 7.7 7.9 6.5 7.1 9.1 8.1 7.5 -0.6
United Kingdom 8.6 7.2 7.5 8.2 7.7 9.5 10.7 11.0 11.2 15.6 16.8 18.9 2.1


12S
TableC2c.Unemploymentrateofyouthwithtertiaryeducation,bothsexes,20002011(%)
Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Change
2010-
2011
Austria 2.4 1.8 5.4 2.4 4.8 7.6 9.8 10.3 2.9 9.6 9.7 7.6 -2.1
Belgium 6.5 9.7 8.2 6.2 10.0 16.0 16.1 11.5 11.3 16.6 13.1 12.1 -1.0
Bulgaria 17.1 26.9 22.1 17.8 22.9 14.6 11.0 9.2 9.9 4.8 11.7 19.6 7.9
Cyprus 5.6 8.3 8.1 12.9 8.0 13.7 13.2 10.8 9.6 16.7 18.3 26.4 8.1
Czech Republic 13.7 15.1 8.8 13.5 9.5 16.1 14.1 9.2 8.1 13.3 15.0 12.3 -2.7
Denmark 1.0 10.0 11.8 7.3 17.6 5.4 10.8 5.7 4.8 7.1 15.6 14.6 -1.0
Estonia 16.7 26.2 2.8 3.7 25.8 7.6 5.8 4.5 8.1 8.7 17.8 15.2 -2.6
Finland 14.8 14.1 7.8 10.7 15.9 6.2 7.7 9.9 5.5 7.9 7.3 7.4 0.1
France 11.4 8.2 11.6 13.9 12.4 15.3 15.0 12.5 10.3 12.6 13.8 13.4 -0.4
Germany 6.8 3.8 4.9 5.4 7.1 12.0 9.0 6.5 7.0 6.0 6.6 4.5 -2.1
Greece 29.6 29.4 23.1 28.4 30.5 33.1 30.1 32.0 24.6 31.0 43.0 48.6 5.6
Hungary 4.8 4.3 6.2 6.0 10.3 12.9 16.7 12.1 15.0 18.5 22.2 19.7 -2.5
Ireland 2.7 2.7 4.9 4.7 4.3 6.4 5.4 5.6 7.5 17.0 18.8 17.8 -1.0
Italy 25.8 28.7 35.8 15.3 32.9 31.3 24.7 19.4 23.8 29.5 23.1 27.1 4.0
Latvia 6.5 7.2 13.6 13.4 7.6 5.3 6.0 4.2 7.9 22.2 20.4 14.6 -5.8
Lithuania 21.2 21.2 18.4 14.3 18.4 9.4 7.8 6.3 11.4 15.8 26.1 21.4 -4.7
Luxembourg 5.6 6.7 0.0 11.1 23.5 17.6 7.7 15.4 7.1 18.8 18.8 10.5 -8.3
Netherlands 2.4 4.9 1.8 4.8 3.5 4.8 2.6 2.6 2.9 4.5 5.2 4.4 -0.8
Norway 8.2 9.5 8.6 8.6 11.7 7.2 5.1 2.9 3.6 4.8 5.5 5.4 -0.1
Poland 26.1 29.0 27.5 27.7 31.0 29.3 23.2 20.0 16.8 19.6 20.7 22.0 1.3
Portugal 6.9 9.7 13.4 14.6 13.2 24.3 28.8 26.1 27.2 24.4 26.2 29.0 2.8
Romania 9.2 17.2 19.7 15.7 13.1 22.0 27.6 21.1 20.4 24.8 28.9 29.3 0.4
Slovakia 26.9 24.1 21.4 23.4 24.4 17.2 16.3 18.9 15.5 22.4 27.3 24.0 -3.3
Slovenia 6.3 7.1 25.0 8.0 12.1 18.4 17.1 8.8 17.8 12.5 16.7 18.2 1.5
Spain 26.6 20.0 21.6 19.6 22.1 17.1 15.1 13.6 15.9 26.0 28.9 35.0 6.1
Sweden 2.4 3.4 7.4 5.2 11.7 16.0 12.8 12.2 11.5 12.8 14.7 12.4 -2.3
Switzerland 4.4 19.2 7.3 11.6 2.3 11.2 13.5 6.7 8.1 6.3 7.2 8.5 1.3
United Kingdom 5.6 5.1 5.9 5.3 4.1 7.9 9.1 7.5 9.2 13.0 12.1 12.0 -0.1


126
TableC3.Countryleveltrendsinyouth:skillsmismatchincidenceandmacrolevel
variables,agegroup1529
Overeducationtrend Undereducationtrend Trendsinmacrovariables

Increasing Decreasing Increasing Decreasing
Tertiary
Unemployment
rate
ISCO1
3,share
attainment
share
Austria I
a

a

a

a
Belgium
Bulgaria I
b
I
b

b

b
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech
Republic

c

c
Denmark I
b
I
b
Estonia I
b

Finland
b

France
Germany
Greece I
c

c
Hungary I
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Netherlands
b
Norway I
b

b

b

Poland I
Portugal I I
b

Romania
Russian
Federation

b

Slovakia I
b

b
Slovenia I
b

Spain I
b

b

b

b
Sweden
Switzerland I
b

b
Turkey
United
Kingdom
I
b
Ukraine

Souice: IL0 calculations baseu on the Euiopean Social Suivey (Noiwegian Social Science Bata
Seivices, 2uu2; 2uu4; 2uu6; 2uu8; 2u1u).
Note: I shows the existence of a tienu in skills mismatch measuieu using the ISC0baseu measuie.
Tienus aie shown only if founu in all five iounus, oi in the last foui obseivable iounus, oi in iounus

127
SS. uieyeu iows coiiesponu to countiies wheie theie aie insufficient iounus to assess tienus.
Teitiaiy attainment is the shaie of teitiaiy giauuates among the employeu. Shaie in ISC0 1S is
the shaie of woikeis in the fiist thiee majoi ISC0 gioups.
a
Bata available only in iounus 14
b
Baseu on iounus SS
c
Bata available only in iounus 12 anu 4S

128
TableC4.Summaryofovereducationmodelresults
Young Mature Total

M
a
l
e
F
e
m
.
T
o
t
a
l
M
a
l
e
F
e
m
.
T
o
t
a
l
M
a
l
e
F
e
m
.
T
o
t
a
l
Demographics
Age
Age
2
/100
Young
Female
1
2
3+
Unemployed
Employed
Supervising
others

Domicile(relativetorural)
Bigcity
Smallcity
Firmsize(relativeto<10employees)
1024
2599
100499
500+
Minority
Oneparent
immigrant

Both
parents
immigrants

CEE
a
immigrant

FSU
b
immigrant

LAA
c
immigrant

Other
European
immigrant

Other
d
immigrant

Young Mature Total

M
a
l
e
F
e
m
.
T
o
t
a
l
M
a
l
e
F
e
m
.
T
o
t
a
l
M
a
l
e
F
e
m
.
T
o
t
a
l
Student
Disabled
Was
unemployed
for3months

Was
unemployed
for1year

Informal
employment

Personalitytraits
Creativityvery
important

Successvery
important

Education(relativetosecondaryeducation)
Primary
Tertiary
Parentalandpartnereffects
Higher
education,
mother

Higher
education,
father

Higher
education,
partner

Parent
supervises
others

Macrolevelfactors
Tertiary
graduates,
share

Unemployment
rate

ISCO13,share

129
Note: Reu cells show significant negative effects (ouus iatios < 1), gieen cells show significant
positive effects (ouus iatios > 1), white cells show insignificant effects, anu giey cells show vaiiables
not incluueu in a given mouel.
a
Cential anu Eastein Euiope
b
Foimei Soviet 0nion
c
Afiica, Asia anu Latin Ameiica
u
Immigiants fiom Austialia, Canaua, }apan, Koiea, New Zealanu oi the 0niteu States.

1Su
TableC5.Summaryofundereducationmodelresults
Young Mature Total

M
a
l
e
F
e
m
.
T
o
t
a
l
M
a
l
e
F
e
m
.
T
o
t
a
l
M
a
l
e
F
e
m
.
T
o
t
a
l
Demographics
Age
Age
2
/100
Young
Female
1
2
3+
Unemployed
Employed
Supervising
others

Domicile(relativetorural)
Bigcity
Smallcity
Firmsize(relativeto<10employees)
1024
2599
100499
500+
Minority
Oneparent
immigrant

Bothparents
immigrants

CEE
a
immigrant

FSU
b
immigrant

LAA
c
immigrant

Other
European
immigrant

Other
d
immigrant

Young Mature Total

M
a
l
e
F
e
m
.
T
o
t
a
l
M
a
l
e
F
e
m
.
T
o
t
a
l
M
a
l
e
F
e
m
.
T
o
t
a
l
Student
Disabled
Was
unemployed
for3months

Was
unemployed
for1year

Informal
employment

Personalitytraits
Creativityvery
important

Successvery
important

Education(relativetosecondaryeducation)
Primary
Tertiary
Parentalandpartnereffects
Higher
education,
mother

Higher
education,
father

Higher
education,
partner

Parent
supervises
others

Macrolevelfactors
Tertiary
graduates,
share

Unemploy
mentrate

ISCO13,
share

1S1
Note: Reu cells show significant negative effects (ouus iatios < 1), gieen cells show significant
positive effects (ouus iatios > 1), white cells show insignificant effects, anu giey cells show vaiiables
not incluueu in a given mouel.
a
Cential anu Eastein Euiope
b
Foimei Soviet 0nion
c
Afiica, Asia anu Latin Ameiica
u
Immigiants fiom Austialia, Canaua, }apan, Koiea, New Zealanu oi the 0niteu States.

1S2
AnnexD.SelectedtablesfromtheSWTS,tencountries
TableD1.Sourceinformation
Armenia Cambodia Egypt
FYR
Macedonia
Jordan Liberia Malawi Peru
Russian
Federation
Togo
Implementation
partner
National
Statistical
Service
National
Institute of
Statistics
Central
Agency for
Public
Mobilization
and
Statistics
State
Statistical
Office
Department
of Statistics
Liberian
Institute of
Statistics
and Geo-
Information
Services
National
Statistics
Office
Instituto
Nacional
de
Estadistica
e
Informtica
Russian
Federal
State
Statistics
Service
Direction
Gnrale de
la
Statistique
et de la
Comptabilit
Nationale
Sample size 3216 3552 5198 2994 5405 1876 3102 2464 3890 2033
Geographic
coverage
National National National National National National National Urban 11 regions National
Reference
period
October
and
November
2012
J uly and
August
2012
December
2012
Third
quarter
(J uly-
September)
2012
December
2012 to
February
2013
J uly and
August
2012
August
and
September
2012
December
2012 and
J anuary
2013
J uly 2012
J uly and
August
2012

1SS
TableD2.Youthlabourmarketindicators,tenSWTScountries,bothsexes,agegroup1529,2012(%)
FYR
Macedonia
Russian
Federation
Togo
Employment-to-population
ratio
30.7 74.1 50.5 27.9 29.9 49.3 66.5 54.0 53.6 62.4
Labour force participation rate 43.9 75.7 58.4 49.3 39.4 61.4 72.1 60.4 60.7 67.4
Inactivity rate 56.1 24.3 41.6 50.7 60.6 38.6 27.9 39.6 39.3 32.6
Unemployment rate (strict
definition)
30.2 2.1 13.5 43.3 24.1 19.8 7.8 10.6 11.7 7.5
Unemployment rate (relaxed
definition)
35.4 3.8 19.5 46.7 30.0 37.0 18.9 18.8 15.9 16.8
Vulnerable employment rate 11.7 52.2 15.1 16.7 3.3 68.5 72.2 23.2 8.4 71.9
Share neither in employment
nor in education or training
(NEET)
27.4 8.7 25.2 30.0 29.0 16.8 17.6 17.9 15.7 10.9
Share neither in the labour
force nor in education or
training (NLFET)
15.4 6.7 17.7 8.3 20.0 5.2 5.5 14.4 10.1 7.9
Labour underutilization rate 42.3 64.2 67.4 46.2 32.9 77.5 79.1 63.4 25.0 71.8

Note: vulneiable employment is the sum of ownaccount woikeis anu contiibuting family woikeis. The laboui unueiutilization iate is the shaie of youth
in iiiegulai employment, unemployeu (ielaxeu uefinition) anu youth neithei in the laboui foice noi in euucationtiaining (inactive nonstuuents).

1S4
TableD3.Youthlabourmarketindicators,tenSWTScountries,males,agegroup1529,2012(%)
FYR
Macedonia
Russian
Federation
Togo
ratio
39.9 76.1 70.9 30.7 47.2 54.9 73.2 61.0 58.7 59.5
Labour force participation
rate
53.0 77.8 76.1 55.2 58.0 64.7 77.5 67.0 66.4 65.2
Inactivity rate 47.0 22.2 23.9 44.8 42.0 35.3 22.5 33.0 33.6 34.8
definition)
24.6 2.1 6.8 44.4 18.7 15.1 5.6 9.0 11.7 8.8
Unemployment rate (relaxed
definition)
27.6 3.3 8.6 48.0 22.1 30.2 12.5 14.6 14.8 16.8
Vulnerable employment rate 14.8 49.9 17.7 20.3 4.1 65.4 68.1 25.2 9.8 66.0
Share neither in employment
nor in education or training
(NEET)
15.9 4.8 9.2 28.0 14.9 12.4 8.9 9.4 10.6 6.6
training (NLFET)
5.5 3.2 4.4 2.5 4.9 3.3 2.2 6.5 4.5 3.8

Note: See table B2.

1SS
TableD4.Youthlabourmarketindicators,tenSWTScountries,females,agegroup1529,2012(%)
FYR
Macedonia
Russian
Federation
Togo
ratio
23.3 72.3 19.5 25.0 11.2 44.4 60.3 47.2 48.7 64.8
Labour force participation
rate
36.8 73.9 31.5 42.9 19.3 58.5 67.1 54.0 55.1 69.3
Inactivity rate 63.2 26.1 68.5 57.1 80.7 41.5 32.9 46.0 44.9 30.7
definition)
36.6 2.1 38.1 41.8 41.8 24.2 10.1 12.6 11.6 6.4
Unemployment rate
(relaxed definition)
43.7 4.1 51.4 44.7 52.1 42.9 25.0 23.5 17.2 16.8
Vulnerable employment
rate
8.3 54.2 7.6 12.2 1.3 71.9 76.8 20.5 6.8 76.7
Share neither in
employment nor in
education or training
(NEET)
36.5 11.9 49.4 32.2 44.2 20.5 25.5 26.2 20.6 14.6
training (NLFET)
23.3 9.7 37.7 14.5 36.5 6.8 8.5 22.0 15.7 11.4

Note: See table B2.

1S6
TableD5.Indicatorsonqualityofemployment,tenSWTScountries,bothsexes,agegroup1529,2012(%)
FYR
Macedonia
Russian
Federation
Togo
Regular employment rate 67.2 26.4 17.9 51.8 90.9 11.8 12.2 26.4 87.9 12.9
Irregular employment rate 32.8 73.6 82.1 48.2 9.1 88.2 87.4 73.6 12.1 87.1
Share in satisfactory
employment
77.9 90.0 73.3 72.7 84.5 68.2 68.9 89.0 86.2 69.6
Share in non-satisfactory
employment
22.1 10.0 20.9 27.3 15.5 31.7 31.2 11.0 8.1 30.4
Informal employment rate 64.2 98.3 91.3 48.4 46.8 82.5 96.4 83.5 50.9 89.1
Involuntary part-time
employment rate
9.5 9.6 2.0 6.4 2.1 14.2 13.8 14.2 2.0 13.8
Share of overeducated
workers
21.6 4.2 11.1 19.0 9.4 9.3 1.7 30.3 13.8 3.6
Share of undereducated
workers
11.4 56.4 33.9 14.4 43.0 45.7 81.8 17.4 31.0 54.7
Temporary employment rate 9.5 9.3 54.2 15.8 4.6 3.5 8.1 45.6 2.4 3.7
Share earning below average
wages
58.3 76.6 .. 52.9 60.6 73.7 74.8 63.4 30.9 62.5
Share earning average wages
or higher
41.7 23.4 .. 47.1 39.4 26.3 25.2 36.6 69.1 37.5

'.. = not available.
Note: Figuies aie shaies in total youth employment (ageu 1S29), except foi (a) the shaies of woikeis eaining below anu above aveiage wages, which
aie piesenteu as the shaie of employees anu ownaccount woikeis only, anu (b) oveieuucateu anu unueieuucateu woikeis, which aie peicentages of
employeu youth with completeu euucation (i.e. excluuing cuiiently woiking stuuents). Involuntaiy paittime employment is uefineu as peisons woiking
less than SS houis pei week who state they woulu like to woik moie houis (iegaiuless of whethei oi not they sought auuitional houis of woik).

1S7
TableD6.Stagesoflabourmarkettransition,tenSWTScountries,bothsexes,agegroup1529,2012(%shareintotalyouth
population)
FYR
Macedonia
Russian
Federation
Togo
Total transited 26.6 68.6 37.9 21.5 28.8 35.0 49.3 49.6 50.0 45.5
Stable employment 20.1 18.6 7.6 14.2 26.7 4.1 8.1 12.9 47.0 6.7
Satisfactory self-employment
or temporary employment
6.5 50.0 30.3 7.3 2.0 30.9 41.2 36.7 3.0 38.8
Total in transition 33.8 13.9 26.3 35.2 19.0 47.1 37.1 24.7 14.5 34.0
Unemployed (relaxed
definition)
16.8 2.9 12.2 24.5 12.8 28.9 15.5 12.5 10.2 12.6
Non-satisfactory self-
employment or temporary
employment
4.1 5.5 9.7 6.5 1.2 14.3 17.2 4.5 0.5 16.8
Inactive non-students with
future plans to work
12.9 5.5 4.3 4.3 5.0 3.9 4.4 7.8 3.8 4.5
Transition not yet started 39.1 17.1 32.9 43.3 52.2 17.8 13.6 23.1 29.6 20.5

1S8
TableD7.Stagesoflabourmarkettransition,tenSWTScountries,males,agegroup1529,2012(%shareintotalyouth
population)
FYR
Macedonia
Russian
Federation
Togo
Total transited 33.9 70.6 52.3 22.7 45.5 39.2 54.7 56.4 54.3 43.7
Satisfactory self-employment or
temporary employment
9.3 50.1 43.1 8.6 3.4 32.5 42.7 42.2 4.6 35.3
Unemployed (relaxed definition) 15.2 2.6 6.7 28.4 13.4 23.7 10.5 10.4 10.2 12.0
Non-satisfactory self-employment or
6.0 5.6 14.5 8.0 1.7 15.7 18.6 4.6 0.7 15.8
Inactive non-students with future
plans to work
3.8 2.4 2.8 1.7 2.2 2.5 1.8 2.6 2.0 2.5

1S9
TableD8.Stagesoflabourmarkettransition,tenSWTScountries,females,agegroup1529,2012(%shareintotalyouth
population)
FYR
Macedonia
Russian
Federation
Togo
Total transited 20.7 66.9 37.9 20.2 10.7 31.3 44.5 42.9 45.9 47.0
Satisfactory self-employment or
4.3 49.9 30.3 5.8 0.6 29.5 39.4 31.3 1.5 41.8
Unemployed (relaxed definition) 18.1 3.1 12.2 20.2 12.2 33.4 20.1 14.5 10.1 13.1
Non-satisfactory self-
employment or temporary
employment
2.6 5.4 9.7 4.8 0.5 13.1 15.9 4.3 0.3 17.7
Inactive non-students with future
plans to work
20.2 8.2 4.3 7.2 8.0 5.2 6.7 12.9 5.5 6.2

14u
TableD9.Flowstocompletedlabourmarkettransition,nineSWTScountries,bothsexes,agegroup1529,2012(%shareintotal
transitedyouth)
FYR
Macedonia
Jordan Liberia Malawi
Russian
Federation
Togo
Direct transition 38.3 45.3 56.8 24.5 33.5 63.2 41.5 44.9 45.8
From unemployment 35.8 0.1 10.7 58.8 38.6 1.4 3.1 8.1 3.4
From own-account work 1.0 1.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 3.7 10.0 1.9 4.3
From unpaid family work 1.2 19.8 0.5 1.3 1.6 7.1 15.5 1.1 19.3
From other employment 5.6 26.5 21.4 9.5 20.5 3.0 14.2 32.2 17.2
From inactivity 8.2 6.9 10.2 5.6 5.4 3.5 15.7 6.9 9.5
From army 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Note: Infoimation on flows aie not yet ieauy foi Peiu. "0thei employment" incluues nonsatisfactoiy tempoiaiy employment foi those who tiansiteu to
stable employment oi satisfactoiy selfemployment oi tempoiaiy employment, anu selfemployment as employei oi wage anu salaiieu woikei foi those
who tiansiteu to satisfactoiy selfemployment oi tempoiaiy employment. In the case of Aimenia only, "othei employment" also incluues peisons who
have tiansiteu uiiectly fiom engagement in the aimy. Aimenia maintains manuatoiy militaiy seivice (2 yeais) foi young men.

141
TableD10.Indicatorsonthepathoftransitionforyouthwhohavecompletedtheirlabourmarkettransition,nineSWTScountries,
bothsexes,agegroup1529,2012
FYR
Macedonia
Jordan Liberia Malawi
Russian
Federation
Togo
Average duration of transition, excluding
direct transits (months)
24.9
months
63.7
months
50.6
months
50.3
months
32.8
months
28.3
months
22.6
months
45.2
months
34.8
months
Average duration of transition, including
direct transits (months)
14.9
months
9.8
months
15.3
months
36.3
months
17.0
months
6.2
months
13.2
months
23.6
months
18.4
months
Average duration of transition to stable
employment (months)
14.3
months
10.1
months
18.8
months
35.3
months
17.0
months
1.1
months
11.7
months
23.4
months
17.6
months
Average duration of transition to
satisfactory self-employment or temporary
employment (months)
16.7
months
9.7
months
14
months
38.6
months
17.9
months
7.1
months
13.4
months
28.0
months
18.6
months
Average number of intermediary activities 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.4
Average number of unemployment spells 1.1 - 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 -
Average duration of unemployment spells
(months)
15.5
months
-
26.8
months
37.1
months
22.3
months
17.3
months
27.1
months
16.5
months
-
Average number of temporary
employment spells
1.1 1.0 - 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.0 -
Average duration of temporary
employment spells (months)
12.1
months
30.4
months
-
12.9
months
20.2
months
4.1
months
22.1
months
15.4
months
-
Average number of spells of self-
employment
1.1 1.0 - - 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1
Average duration of spells of self-
employment (months)
16.8
months
54.7
months
- -
46.1
months
9.1
months
38.6
months
35.4
months
33.4
months
Share of direct transitions (%) 38.3 45.3 56.8 24.5 33.5 63.2 41.5 44.9 45.8
Share of direct transitions going to stable
employment (%)
72.3 32.2 14.7 63.6 93.2 15.9 18.0 95.8 13.5
Share of direct transitions going to
satisfactory self-employment or temporary
employment (%)
27.7 67.8 85.3 36.4 6.8 84.1 82.0 4.2 86.5

' = not ieliable uue to small sample.
Note: Infoimation on paths of tiansition aie not yet ieauy foi Peiu. Calculations excluue young people who tiansiteu uiiectly to stable anuoi
satisfactoiy employment unless otheiwise inuicateu.

142
AnnexE.Noteonglobalandregionalprojections

0nemployment iate piojections weie obtaineu using the histoiical ielationship
between unemployment iates anu uBP giowth uuiing the woist ciisisuowntuin
peiiou foi each countiy between 1991 anu 2uuS anu uuiing the coiiesponuing iecoveiy
peiiou.
6S
This was uone thiough the inclusion of inteiaction teims of ciisis anu iecoveiy
uummy vaiiables with uBP giowth in fixeu effects panel iegiessions.
64
Specifically, the
logistically tiansfoimeu unemployment iate was iegiesseu on a set of covaiiates,
incluuing the laggeu unemployment iate, the uBP giowth iate, the laggeu uBP giowth
iate anu a set of covaiiates consisting of the inteiaction of the ciisis uummy, anu of the
inteiaction of the iecoveiy uummy with each of the othei vaiiables.

Sepaiate panel iegiessions weie iun acioss thiee uiffeient gioupings of countiies,
baseu on:

(1) geogiaphic pioximity anu economicinstitutional similaiities;
(2) income levels;
6S

(S) level of expoit uepenuence (measuieu as expoits as a peicentage of uBP).
66

The iationale behinu these gioupings is as follows. Countiies within the same
geogiaphic aiea oi with similai economicinstitutional chaiacteiistics aie likely to be
similaily affecteu by the ciisis anu have similai mechanisms to attenuate the ciisis
impact on theii laboui maikets. Fuitheimoie, because countiies within geogiaphic
aieas often have stiong tiaue anu financial linkages, the ciisis is likely to spill ovei fiom
one economy to its neighboui (e.g. Canauas economy anu laboui maiket uevelopments
aie intiicately linkeu to uevelopments in the 0niteu States). Countiies with similai
income levels aie also likely to have moie similai laboui maiket institutions (e.g. social
piotection measuies) anu similai capacities to implement fiscal stimulus anu othei

6S
The ciisis peiiou compiises the span between the yeai in which a countiy expeiienceu the laigest uiop
in uBP giowth, anu the tuining point yeai, when giowth ieacheu its lowest level following the ciisis,
befoie staiting to climb back to its pieciisis level. The iecoveiy peiiou compiises the yeais between the
tuining point yeai anu the yeai when giowth ietuineu to its pieciisis level.
64
In oiuei to pioject unemployment uuiing the cuiient iecoveiy peiiou, the ciisisyeai anu iecoveiy
yeai uummies weie aujusteu baseu on the following uefinition: a countiy was consiueieu cuiiently in
ciisis if the uiop in uBP giowth aftei 2uu7 was laigei than 7S pei cent of the absolute value of the
stanuaiu ueviation of uBP giowth ovei the 19912uu8 peiiou anuoi laigei than S peicentage points.
6S
The income gioups coiiesponu to the Woilu Bank income gioup classification of foui income
categoiies, baseu on countiies 2uu8 uNI pei capita (calculateu using the Atlas methou): lowincome
countiies, 0S$97S oi less; lowei miuuleincome countiies, 0S$976S,8SS; uppei miuuleincome
countiies, 0S$S,8S611,9uS; anu highincome countiies, 0S$11,9u6 oi moie.
66
The expoit uepenuencebaseu gioups aie: highest expoits (expoits 7u pei cent of uBP); high expoits
(expoits <7u pei cent but Su pei cent of uBP); meuium expoits (expoits <Su pei cent but 2u pei cent
of uBP); anu low expoits (expoits <2u pei cent of uBP).

14S
policies to countei the ciisis impact. Finally, as the uecline in expoits was the piimaiy
ciisis tiansmission channel fiom uevelopeu to ueveloping economies, countiies weie
gioupeu accoiuing to theii level of exposuie to this channel, as measuieu by theii
expoits as a peicentage of uBP. The impact of the ciisis on laboui maikets thiough the
expoit channel also uepenus on the type of expoits (the affecteu sectois of the
economy), the shaie of uomestic value auueu in expoits anu the ielative impoitance of
uomestic consumption (foi instance, countiies such as Inuia oi Inuonesia, with a laige
uomestic maiket, weie less vulneiable than countiies such as Singapoie anu Thailanu).
These chaiacteiistics aie contiolleu foi by using fixeu effects in the iegiessions.

In auuition to these thiee gioup panel iegiessions, countiylevel iegiessions weie iun
foi countiies with sufficient uata. The oiuinaiy leastsquaies countiylevel iegiessions
incluueu the same vaiiables as the panel iegiessions.

Noieovei, taken into account the unceitainty aiounu uBP piospects as well as the
complexity of captuiing the ielationship between the uBP anu unemployment iate foi
all the countiies, a vaiiety of about ten multilevel mixeueffects lineai iegiessions
(vaiyinginteicept anu vaiyingcoefficient mouels) aie utilizeu. The main component
that changes acioss these veisions is the lag stiuctuie of the inuepenuent vaiiables. The
potential supeiioiity of these mouels lies to the fact that not only the panel stiuctuie is
fully exploiteu (e.g. incieaseu uegiees of fieeuom) but also the oppoitunity to estimate
the coefficients specifically foi each unit (countiy), taking into account clusteilevel
unobseiveu heteiogeneity coiiecting foi the ianuom effects appioach caveat that the
inuepenuent vaiiables aie not coiielateu with the ianuom effects teim.

0veiall, the final piojection was geneiateu as a simple aveiage of the estimates obtaineu
fiom the thiee gioup panel iegiessions anu, foi countiies with sufficient uata, the
countiylevel iegiessions as well. Foi a selection of countiies (SS out of 178), an
aveiage of anothei set of foiecast combination was maue accoiuing to juugemental
examination in oiuei to iepiesent moie iealistically the iecent tienus obseiveu in the
countiys economic foiecast.

Refinementoftheglobalandregionalprojections

In the beginning of Q1 2u1S, at the time of piouuction of this GlobalEmploymentTrends
for Youth iepoit, 6u out of a total sample of 178 countiies hau ieleaseu monthly oi
quaiteily unemployment estimates foi the full (29 countiies) oi a poition of (iemaining
S1 countiies) 2u12. Foi the 29 countiies with a iepoiteu iate foi all the
monthsquaiteis in 2u12, the simple aveiage ovei all the monthsquaiteis was useu as
the point estimate foi this yeai. Foi the iemaining S1 countiies; in six countiies,
estimates weie available thiough Novembei; in foui countiies, estimates weie available
thiough 0ctobei, in nine countiies, estimates weie available thiough Septembei (QS);
in eight countiies, estimates weie available thiough }une (Q2); anu in foui countiies,

144
estimates weie available thiough Naich (Q1). These monthlyquaiteily uata weie
utilizeu in oiuei to geneiate an estimate of the 2u12 annual unemployment iate. The
2u12 piojection foi the iest of the sample (countiies without any uata foi 2u12), as well
as piojections foi 2u1S onwaius, weie piouuceu by the extension of the uET Nouel
using the ielationship between economic giowth anu unemployment uuiing countiies
pievious iecoveiy peiious, as uesciibeu above.

In geneiating the 2u12 point estimate foi the S1 countiies foi which paitial 2u12 uata
weie available, the fiist step was to take an unweighteu aveiage of the (seasonally
aujusteu) unemployment iate ovei the available months oi quaiteis of 2u12, which is
uefineu as the point estimate. Aiounu this point estimate a confiuence inteival was
geneiateu, baseu on the stanuaiu ueviation of the monthly oi quaiteily unemployment
iate since the beginning of 2uu8, multiplieu by the iatio of the iemaining months oi
quaiteis to 12 (foi monthly estimates) oi foui (foi quaiteily estimates).
67
Thus, all else
being equal, the moie months of uata that aie available foi a countiy, the moie ceitain is
the estimate of the annual unemployment iate, with unceitainty ueclining in piopoition
to the months of available uata.

In oiuei to integiate the shoit teim anu meuiumteim tienus in the movement of
unemployment iates, the above point estimate was aujusteu accoiuing to whethei the
two tienus aie in agieement.
68
Specifically:

if both tienus aie positive (negative), then the above point estimate was
iecalculateu as a weighteu aveiage of 6u (4u) pei cent of the uppei bounu anu 4u
(6u) pei cent of the lowei bounu;
if the two tienus aie in opposite uiiections, the unemployment iate of the latest
month oi quaitei available was assigneu to the iemaining months oi quaiteis of
2u12, anu the above point estimate was iecalculateu as an unweighteu aveiage
ovei the 12 months oi foui quaiteis of 2u12.

The unueilying assumption is that in cases wheie theie is a cleai upwaiu (uownwaiu)
tienu ovei two consecutive peiious, the tenuency foi the 2u12 point estimate will be foi
somewhat highei (lowei) unemployment iates than in the latest month of available
uata. In cases in which theie is no uisceinible tienu ovei the past two peiious,
unemployment is expecteu to iemain at the most iecent iate, anu theiefoie moie

67
In cases wheie the iatio of the point estimate anu the stanuaiu ueviation was less than oi equal to S,
the stanuaiu ueviation was insteau constiucteu since the beginning of 2uu9. The iationale is that the
exceptionally high volatility of unemployment iates uuiing the eaily peiiou of the global financial ciisis is
unlikely to peisist ovei the shoittomeuium teim. Rathei, the most iecent level of volatility can be
expecteu to peisist.
68
The shoitteim anu the longeiteim tienu aie uefineu, iespectively, as the peicentage point uiffeiences
between the unemployment iate of the latest month N (oi quaitei Q) available anu the unemployment
iate of the month NS (oi quaitei Q1), anu of the month N6 (oi quaitei Q2), iespectively.

14S
weight is given to the latest infoimation available. The final 2u12 unemployment iate
estimate foi these countiies is equal to the aujusteu point estimate.

The same pioceuuie was followeu foi the unemployment iate of the youth sub
components foi the countiies with at least two quaiteis available in 2u12 (42 out of 6u
countiies).
69
The piojections foi the unemployment iate of the iest of the sub
components foi 2u12 onwaius weie piouuceu with the extension of the uET Nouel,
using sepaiately foi each subcomponent the same mouel specifications as foi the total
unemployment iate. The nominal unemployment foi the vaiious subcomponents
estimateu with the extension of the uET Nouel was aggiegateu to piouuce a nominal
unaujusteu total unemployment level, which may uiffei fiom what the above pioceuuie
yielus foi total nominal unemployment. The uiffeience between the total nominal
unemployment piouuceu as the sum of the subcomponents anu the total nominal
unemployment estimateu sepaiately was uistiibuteu among the subcomponents in
piopoition to each subcomponents shaie of total unemployment.
7u
These aujusteu
point estimates aie the final point estimates foi the subcomponents.

Confidenceintervalfortheglobalandregionalprojections

Foi the 6u countiies foi which paitial 2u12 uata weie available, the confiuence inteival
iemaineu as uesciibeu above. Foi the iest of the countiies anu foi the piojections foi
2u1S onwaius, the confiuence inteivals aiounu the piojections weie geneiateu with
one stanuaiu ueviation acioss the piojections of the vaiious mouels piojections, as
uesciibeu above. In oiuei to constiuct the confiuence inteival foi each subcomponent,
the iatio of the subcomponent unemployment iate to total unemployment iate was
applieu to the uppei anu loweibounu estimates of the total unemployment iate.

Theiefoie, in oiuei to encouiage the ieauei to concentiate on the wiue uegiee of
unceitainty suiiounuing the cential piojection insteau of the piecise cential point, the
unemployment iate piojections aie piesenteu along with the confiuence inteivals. The
confiuence inteivals aie by uefault constiucteu symmetiically aiounu the cential
piojection anu foi the figuies piesenteu in the main text the confiuence inteival is
uiviueu into thiee banus. That is, within the confiuence inteivals, it can be juugeu that
theie is a highei oi lowei chance that the unemployment iate will be within each banu.
The choice of thiee banus in the figuies is aibitiaiy. The cential banu, colouieu with
uaikest shaue, incluues the cential piojection within onethiiu of the confiuence

69
Foi 2S countiies out of these 42, all the monthsquaiteis of 2u12 weie available, anu hence the simple
aveiage ovei all those monthsquaiteis was useu as the point estimate foi this yeai. Foi the iemaining
17, the same pioceuuie was useu as uesciibeu in the main text.
7u
The unueilying assumption is that the ielationship between the total unemployment iate anu uBP
giowth is bettei unueistoou than the ielationship between unemployment iates of subgioups of
woikeis anu uBP giowth.

146
inteival, the miuule banu iepiesents the next onethiiu of the confiuence inteival anu
the outsiue banu with the lightest shaue iepiesents the whole confiuence inteival.

Foi moie infoimation on the methouology of piouucing woilu anu iegional estimates,
see www.ilo.oigtienus.

147
AnnexF.Skillsmismatch
Skillsmismatchbetweenlaboursupplyanddemand
Skills mismatch between supply of laboui anu uemanu foi laboui can be quantifieu
using an inuex of uissimilaiity baseu on the uiffeiences in the shaies of euucational
attainment of the employeu in compaiison with the unemployeu. It shoulu be
emphasizeu that this inuex captuies one uimension of mismatch, namely mismatch
between skills uemanu (uefineu by the skills of the employeu) anu skills supply (uefineu
by the skills of the unemployeu), both pioxieu by level of euucational attainment. The
inuex uoes not captuie mismatch at moie uetaileu levels of skills oi mismatch between
the skills of the employeu anu theii job iequiiements. The inuex is uefineu as follows:

I
Msmutch
=
1
2
ABS _
E
E
-
u
u
]
3
=1

wheie: i: an inuicatoi foi the level of euucation (piimaiy oi less; seconuaiy; teitiaiy);
ABS: the opeiatoi foi the absolute uiffeience; E
i
/E: the piopoition of the employeu with
euucation level i; U
i
/U: the piopoition of unemployeu with euucation level i.

Apait fiom being a measuie of mismatch between skills supply anu uemanu, the inuex
can be inteipieteu as a summaiy measuie of the ielative position of laboui maiket
gioups with uiffeient levels of euucation. If piimaiy, seconuaiy anu teitiaiy giauuates
all have the same unemployment iate, the inuex will have a value of zeio (no
uissimilaiity between gioups), while the inuex woulu ieach a value of 1 (complete
uissimilaiity) if, foi example, all those with piimaiy anu teitiaiy euucation aie
employeu anu all those with seconuaiy euucation aie unemployeu.

Skillsmismatchbetweenjobrequirementsandqualifications
Bata fiom the Euiopean Social Suivey have been useu in this iepoit (Noiwegian Social
Science Bata Seivices, 2uu2; 2uu4; 2uu6; 2uu8; 2u1u). These uata aie in the foim of
iepeateu ciosssections: Eveiy iounu, a ciosssection of inuiviuuals is suiveyeu in the
paiticipating countiies. It can be aigueu that, because, among othei ieasons, laboui
maiket policies anu euucation systems affect inhabitants of a countiy in a similai way,
one cannot assume that intiacountiy obseivations in the same iounu oi in uiffeient
iounus aie uncoiielateu. 0bseivations iepiesenting uiffeient countiies, on the othei
hanu, can be assumeu to have zeio coiielation.

In this uata stiuctuie, the oiuinaiy logistic iegiession mouel woulu fit population
averaged piobabilities. Consiuei, foi example, a mouel explaining oveieuucation anu a
binaiy explanatoiy vaiiable inuicating uisability of the iesponuent anu assume that its
estimateu populationaveiageu ouus iatio is 1.2u. This woulu mean that the ouus of
being oveieuucateu among all individuals in all countries is 2u pei cent highei foi the
uisableu. (See the enu of this section foi moie on how to inteipiet ouus iatios.)

Anothei option might be to fit subjectspecific in the cuiient case, countryspecific
piobabilities. This might be uone using panel uata methous, such as a mixeu effects

148
logistic iegiession mouel with ianuom inteicepts at the level of countiies. In paiticulai,
this woulu allow foi taking intiacountiy coiielation into account. Continuing the
example, if in a mixeu effects logistic mouel the estimateu countiyspecific ouus iatio foi
uisability is 1.2u, this woulu mean that the ouus of being oveieuucateu forindividualsin
agivencountry is 2u pei cent highei foi the uisableu.

As compaieu to the conuitional, oi fixeueffects, logistic iegiession mouel,
71
the mixeu
effects mouel auuitionally allows foi hieiaichical clusteiing (foi instance, a hieiaichy
inuiviuualiegioncountiy, allowing foi intiaclustei coiielations at each level) anu
ianuom coefficients (so that the coefficient on the vaiiable uepenus on the countiy to
which the obseivation belongs). In this iepoit, we useu the twolevel mouel, wheie
inuiviuuals compiise the fiist level anu countiies the seconu. Countiies, thus, foim
clusteis of obseivations. As will be noteu below, ianuom coefficients at the countiy
level will be auueu to the mouel, as neeueu.

ueneially, the mouel looks as:

Pi(y
k
= 1|u
k
) = (x
k
+ z
k
u
k
).

In this equation, we assume H clusteis (i.e., countiies), inuexeu by k. The uepenuent
binaiy vaiiable y
k
iepiesents the state of oveieuucation oi unueieuucation (uepenuing
on the mouel), x
k
aie the covaiiates foi the fixeu effects (coiiesponuing to the iesults
of the oiuinaiy logistic iegiession) with coefficients (fixeueffects) . The 1 q vectoi
z
k
stoies the covaiiates foi the ianuom effects, iepiesenting both ianuom inteicepts
anu ianuom coefficients, as neeueu. The ianuom effects u
k
aie H iealizations fiom a
multivaiiate noimal uistiibution with mean anu q q vaiiance matiix L. The ianuom
effects aie not estimateu uiiectly, but insteau aie summaiizeu fiom the unique elements
of the matiix L. Finally, () uenotes the logistic cumulative uistiibution function.

The estimation of mixeu effects logistic iegiession involves estimating an integial, foi
which no closeufoim solution exists. Theie is thus a neeu foi numeiic appioximations.
Auaptive uaussian quauiatuie (AuQ) is usually useu foi this puipose (see RabeBesketh
anu Skonuial, 2u12, pp. SS7S4u; StataCoip, 2u11, pp. 26u26S, foi uetails). The
accuiacy of this methou uepenus on the numbei of integiation points: moie integiation
points leau to iesults that aie moie accuiate. The tiaueoff foi highei accuiacy is
exponentially longei computation time. We estimate all mixeu effects logistic mouels
with AuQ with seven integiation points.

As logittype iegiessions aie nonlineai mouels, it is most appiopiiate to iepoit theii
iesults using ouus iatios
72
. The ouus is the expecteu numbei of successes (cases wheie
the binaiy uepenuent vaiiable is 1) pei failuie (cases wheie it is u). Technically, an ouus
iatio of inuepenuent vaiiable x
]
is (RabeBesketh anu Skonuial, 2u12, p. SuS):

71
Fixeueffects logistic mouel shoulu not be confuseu with stanuaiu logistic mouel with (in this case,
countiy) fixeu effects. The teims conuitional logit anu fixeueffects logit aie synonymous.
72
RabeBesketh anu Skionual (2u12, p. Su4) note that iepoiting the iesults of logittype mouels using
ouus iatios is natuial because the log ouus is a lineai function of covaiiates. This is contiasteu with
maiginal effects oi paitial effects, which aie nonlineai functions of covaiiates.

149
Pi(y = 1|x
1
, , x
]
+ 1, , x
p
) Pi(y = u|x
1
, , x
]
+ 1, , x
p
) ,
Pi(y = 1|x
1
, , x
]
, , x
p
) Pi(y = u|x
1
, , x
]
, , x
p
) ,
.

The ouus iatio thus shows how many times the ouus of y incieases foi a oneunit
change in the coiiesponuing inuepenuent vaiiable. Retuining to oui example, wheie
y = 1 ieflects that the iesponuent is oveieuucateu anu x
]
is the uisability uummy,
assume that the ouus iatio is 1.2u. The inteipietation is as follows. The iatio of the
chances of being oveieuucateu to the chances of being nonoveieuucateu is 2u pei cent
highei among the uisableu than among those with no seiious health pioblems. An ouus
iatio of exactly 1.u means that theie is no effect fiom the inuepenuent vaiiable.

1Su
AnnexG.GlobalEmploymentTrendsRegionalgroupings

Developed
Economies and
European Union
European Union
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
North America
Canada
United States
Other Developed Economies
Australia
Israel
J apan
New Zealand
Western Europe (non-EU)
Iceland
Norway
Switzerland
Central and South-
Eastern Europe
(non-EU) and CIS
Central and South-Eastern
Europe (non-EU)
Albania
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Croatia
Serbia and
Montenegro
The former Yugoslav
Republic of
Macedonia
Turkey
Commonwealth of
Independent States
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Republic of Moldova
Russian Federation
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Ukraine
Uzbekistan
South Asia
Afghanistan
Bangladesh
Bhutan
India
Maldives
Nepal
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
South-East Asia and
the Pacific
South-East Asia
Brunei Darussalam
Cambodia
East Timor
Indonesia
Lao Peoples
Democratic Republic
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Viet Nam
Pacific Islands
Fiji
Papua New Guinea
Solomon Islands
East Asia
China
Hong Kong, China
Korea, Democratic
Peoples Republic of
Korea, Republic of
Macau, China
Mongolia
Taiwan, China
Latin America and
the Caribbean
Caribbean
Bahamas
Barbados
Cuba
Dominican Republic
Guadeloupe
Guyana
Haiti
J amaica
Martinique
Netherlands Antilles
Puerto Rico
Suriname
Trinidad and Tobago
Central America
Belize
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
South America
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela, Bolivarian
Republic of
Middle East
Bahrain
Iran, Islamic Republic
_of
Iraq
J ordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Syrian Arab Republic
United Arab Emirates
Occupied Palestinian
Territory
Yemen
North Africa
Algeria
Egypt
Libya
Morocco
Sudan
Tunisia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Eastern Africa
Burundi
Comoros
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Kenya
Madagascar
Malawi
Mauritius
Mozambique
Runion
Rwanda
Somalia
Tanzania, United
Republic of
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Middle Africa
Angola
Cameroon
Central African
Republic
Chad
Congo
Congo, Democratic
Republic of
Equatorial Guinea
Gabon
Southern Africa
Botswana
Lesotho
Namibia
South Africa
Swaziland
Western Africa
Benin
Burkina Faso
Cape Verde
Cte dIvoire
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Liberia
Mali
Mauritania
Niger
Nigeria
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Togo

Global Employment Trends For Youth (2013)

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GLOBAL EMPLOYMENT

TRENDS FOR YOUTH 2013

Inteinational Laboui 0ffice, ueneva

Box 1. Youth employment: A u2u piioiity .............................................................................................. 7

Annex A. Woilu anu iegional tables ..................................................................................................... 1uS

Souice: 0ECB online uatabase.

Souice: IL0 estimates fiom national laboui foice suiveys.

All Male Female Youth(aged<30)

All Male Female Youth(aged<30)

Souice: SWTS, Aimenia anu Togo, 2u12.

Overeducationtrend Undereducationtrend Trendsinmacrovariables

Young Mature Total

Young Mature Total

Young Mature Total

Young Mature Total

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