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Tree House
Spreading Branches
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) Adjusted PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
3QFY13 29 16 56.1 8 % chg (qoq) 1.1 (13.0) (784)bp (8.8) 4QFY12 22 11 49.2 5 % chg (yoy) 32.8 30.2 (97)bp 45.1
4QFY13 29 14 48.3 7
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Educational Services 973 8.4 0.9 295 / 190 27,277 10 20,215 6,124 THEA.BO THEAL.IN
Tree House Education and Accessories Ltd. (THEAL) reported a strong set of numbers for 4QFY2013. Its top-line grew by 32.8% yoy to `29.4cr, better than our estimate of `25.2cr. The EBITDA grew by 30.2% to `14.2cr while margins contracted marginally by 97bp yoy to 48.3% owing to rise in other expenses. Subsequently, the net profit grew by a whopping 45.1% to `7.3cr, aided by lower interest expense while net profit margin expanded to 25.0%. Budding pre-school segment provides growth visibility: The concept of imparting education to young toddlers is catching up fast today. As per CRISIL research, the size of pre-school segment is expected to grow to `13,300cr in 2015 from the current `5,000cr. Moreover, with an urbanization rate of 40% and escalated average household disposable income, the demand for the segment is expected to maintain its momentum. Dual business model provides competitive edge: Dual business model of THEAL facilitates it to maintain quality of education, maximize the profit through SOS, and widen its reach through franchisees. Moreover, Tree House being an established brand in the pre-school segment has taken a logical step to enter the K-12 segment. Pre-schools and K-12, thus, become complimentary to each other with pre-school acting as a feeder to the K-12. Outlook and valuation: Given the growth opportunities in the pre-school segment and consistent expansion by THEAL, we expect the top-line and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 30.1% and 29.9% respectively over FY2013-15E to `194cr and `56cr in FY2015E. We recommend Accumulate on THEAL with a revised target price of `297 based on target PE of 19x of FY2015E earnings.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 27.8 16.6 39.4 16.3
3m 7.2 15.1
3yr 19.3 *
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) Net Sales % chg Net Profit % chg EBITDA Margin (%) FDEPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
FY2012 77 97.0 22 176.4 54.3 6.0 45.3 3.8 8.4 18.6 12.2 22.5
FY2013E 114 47.9 33 55.0 54.1 9.3 29.2 2.8 9.6 16.5 8.6 15.9
FY2014E 153 33.7 45 33.7 53.0 12.4 21.8 2.6 11.8 18.3 6.5 12.3
FY2015E 194 26.7 56 26.2 52.8 15.6 17.3 2.3 13.1 22.1 5.0 9.5
Twinkle Gosar
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6848 Gosar.twinkle@angelbroking.com
4QFY13 29.4
0.0
3QFY13 29.1
0.0
4QFY12 22.1
0.0
FY2013 114
0.0
FY2012 77
0.0
% chg 47.7
0.0
3.4
0.0
3.5 (1.7) 27.0 19.2
0.0
3.0 12.6 43.6 35.3
0.0
13.3
0.0
13.1 1.6 76.1 48.5
11.5
11.8
11.9
9.3
13.6
8.2
11.7
39.2
16.9
22.2
40.2
15.2
32.0
12.8
37.2
11.2
34.3
52
28.8
35
14.2
48.3
16.3
56.1
(13.0)
(784)bp
10.9
49.2
30.2
(97)bp
61.8
54.1
42.0
54.3
47.1
(23)bp
1.2
3.6
2.2
3.4
(45.9)
7.1
2.0
2.7
(2382.2)
34.3
6.6
13.4
6.5
7.8
1.8
71.5
1.7
11.0
1.3
12.0
28.5
(8.2)
1.3
7.4
32.5
48.4
7.1
48.8
3.8
31.5
87.1
55.2
24.7
35.7
0.0
12.0
0.0
7.4
0.0
48.8
0.0
31.5
121.5
3.7
41.4
4.0 (7.0) 297.6
33.6
2.4 55.5 532.6
42.7
15.5
40.7
9.9 56.1 54.8
10.4
32.0
33.1
8.1
32.0
5.1
31.7
33.3
31.6
21.5
7.3 25.0
8.1 27.7
(8.8)
5.1 22.9
45.1
33.3 29.2
21.5 27.8
54.8
For 4QFY2013, the top-line of the company grew by 32.8% yoy to `29.4cr on the back of opening 30 pre-schools, better than our estimate of `25.2cr. The EBITDA grew by 30.2% to `14.2cr while margins contracted marginally by 97bp yoy to 48.3% owing to rise in other expenses. On the back of strong top-line growth and robust operating performance, net profit grew by a whopping 45.1% to `7.3cr, aided by lower interest expense. The interest expense has reduced since the company has switched its loan to a relatively cheaper substitute (would be repaid by FY2015E). Subsequently, the net profit margin too expanded from 22.9% in the same quarter previous year to 25.0% in current quarter and above our estimate of 21.8%.
2.7
60 50 40
18 16
14 12 38.6 10
58.1
60.9
51.7 57.4 49.2 54.9
56.1
70 48.3
60 50
( ` cr)
( ` cr)
15 10
30 20
(%)
8
6
30
10.7
11.0
10.9
15.8
16.3
14.2
15.5
4 2 0
20
10
16
18
21
22
28
28
29
29
5 0
10 0
9.4
3.9
10 0
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
Revenue (LHS)
EBITDA (LHS)
Investment arguments
Unique business model and strong brand to provide competitive edge
THEAL is the largest self-operated pre-school provider in India, operating on a dual business model, ie operating SOS (~80% of total centres) in metro cities and adopting the franchise model in tier 3 & 4 cities. This model facilitates the company to maintain its quality of education and maximize profits through SOS; and widen the reach through franchisees. In franchisees, the quality of education is maintained by adopting standardization of curriculum and teacher training programmes. Strong brand and assured quality of education act as differentiating pillars and hence provides THEAL a competitive edge over other pre-school operators. THEAL has recently announced its initiative to provide pre-primary education at affordable prices through Global Champs pre-schools. The company has opened 4 centres until now in Mumbai.
4QFY13
4QFY11
2QFY13
(%)
20
7.6
40
Financials
Exhibit 5: Key Assumptions
Particulars Total no of pre-school centres SOS Franchisee Total Revenue (` cr) Pre-school Revenue (` cr) SOS Franchisee Teacher training program K-12 Revenue (` cr) School management fees Infrastructure rent
Source: Company, Angel Research
Earlier estimates FY2014E 150 34.3 12.8 FY2015E 192 27.4 16.2
Revised estimates FY2014E 153 33.7 12.4 FY2015E 194 26.2 15.6
200 150
100 50
25.2 97.0
47.7 35.4
100
80 60
40
(` cr)
114
155
21
77
39
194
20 0
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014E
FY2015E
60
100
80
54.1
53.6
50
40
(` cr)
40 20
20 10 7 17 42 62 83 102
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014E
FY2015E
EBITDA (LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
(%)
60
30
(%)
29.0
35
30 25
(%)
29.2
(` cr)
30
20 11.6 10
20 19.8
15
10 5
2 FY2010
22
33
45
56
FY2011
FY2013
FY2014E
FY2015E
(` )
Nov-12
Nov-11
Price
Source: Company, Angel Research
15x
21x
27x
33x
May-13
May-12
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jul-12
Mar-13
Mar-12
Competition
The education sector in India is largely unorganized and the business of pre-schools is highly fragmented and competitive. In addition to competition from unorganized players in the pre-schools business, THEAL faces a lot of competition from organized players in the market where it competes with various pre-schools like Kidzee, Euro Kids, and Roots to Wings (operated by Educomp Solutions).
Risks
Geographical concentration: Of the total 379 pre-schools, more than 40% are
located in and around Mumbai metropolitan. This suggests a geographical concentration risk to the company.
10
11
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Net sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset TO (Gross Block) Inventory / Net sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to Equity Net debt to EBITDA Int. Coverage (EBIT/ Int.) 0.1 1.0 10.4 (0.1) (0.7) 5.3 0.0 0.1 7.3 0.1 0.3 13.6 (0.0) (0.0) 30.7 4.3 8 41 156 (1) 0.5 12 18 130 (1) 0.6 13 20 130 (9) 0.6 12 18 130 (18) 0.7 47 18 130 (22) 7.5 14.6 6.3 11.0 18.6 8.4 11.5 16.5 9.6 14.7 18.3 11.8 17.7 22.1 13.1 33.1 0.6 0.4 9.3 1.7 0.1 10.3 44.2 0.7 0.4 12.7 8.7 (0.1) 12.3 42.4 0.7 0.4 11.2 6.8 0.0 11.3 41.2 0.7 0.4 12.5 6.8 0.1 12.9 42.0 0.7 0.5 15.1 6.8 (0.0) 15.0 2.2 2.2 3.3 34.1 6.0 6.0 8.1 1.0 71.3 9.3 9.3 13.0 1.3 96.9 12.4 12.4 17.4 1.3 105.0 15.6 15.6 21.4 1.3 119.2 125.1 82.9 7.9 25.2 58.4 5.7 45.3 33.2 3.8 0.3 12.2 22.5 3.0 29.2 20.8 2.8 0.5 8.6 15.9 2.3 21.8 15.5 2.6 0.5 6.5 12.3 2.3 17.3 12.6 2.3 0.5 5.0 9.5 2.1 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
12
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Tree House No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
13