You are on page 1of 3

Project Information

Solution: Intended benefit: Project title: Project reference: Completed by: To build a High Speed Railway net work linking Birmingham and major nort hern cit ies in England To reduce privat e vehicle use and t hus reduce UK carbon emissions

Carbon Management Coursework HS2 Resilaincy Sat bir Jandu: 12964 4 5 T his project aims t o reduce privat e vehicle usage in England by building a high speed railway net work, connect ing Birmingham t o ot her nort hern cit ies including Manchest er, Leeds and Sheffield. T he high speed net work aims t o offer a fast , affordable and environment ally friendly alt ernat ive t o privat e vehicle t ravel bet ween t he cit ies. T his project also aims t o regenerat e urban areas and creat e employment by building new railway st at ions.

Notes:

Selected Indicators
Fort ress World Rich, Fort ress World Poor

Indicat or

Measure

UK Baseline

New Sust ainabilit y Paradigm

Policy Reform

Market Forces

Populat ion

Million

61.8 (2009 base)

Urbanisat ion

% populat ion in urban areas GDP ( pet rol versus alt ernat ive fuels Passenger km per year Passenger km per year Passenger km per year

90

Income

, see text see text, see text

Transport at ion fuel t ype

see text

see text

Passenger road t ravel (privat e)

655 billion (2009) 53 billion (2009) 51 billion (2010)

Passenger road t ravel (public)

Passenger rail t ravel

Analysis of the Necessary Conditions


New Sust ainabilit y Paradigm
Acce pt able ROI rat e , an incre ase in urbanisat io n,

Necessary Condit ions

Policy Reform

Market Forces

Fort ress World

Solution must be economically viable

inco m e co m bine d wit h a de cre ase in ro ad t rave l o ffse t t he de cre ase s in po pulat io n and rail t rave l.

Fast ROI due t o incre ase s in inco m e , urbanisat io n and passe nge r rail t rave l.

Fast ROI due t o incre ase s in inco m e , urbanisat io n and passe nge r rail t rave l.

Only t he rich can affo rd t o t rave l in a co unt ry wit h incre asing po pulat io n and urbanisat io n. High t icke t price s e nsure an acce pt able ROI.

To t al UK po pulat io n de cre ase s by 11 % . Urbanisat io n incre ase s t o 9 4 % and privat e ro ad usage de cre ase s by 34 % , so de m and fo r t rave l be t we e n e xpanding cit ie s re m ains. Ho we ve r, o ve rall rail t rave l de cre ase s t o 2 4 billio n passe nge r kilo m e t re s.

T he t o t al UK po pulat io n and urbanisat io n le ve ls do n't change significant ly, t he y co nt inue t o incre ase at t he pre se nt day le ve l. As a re sult , public de m and re m ains and rail t rave l incre ase s by a m assive 480%.

T he po pulat io n gro wt h rat e do e s no t change significant ly but urbanisat io n incre ase s t o 9 4 % . T he de m and fo r t rave l be t we e n e xpanding cit ie s re m ains and wit h public ro ad t rave l de cre asing by 5 2 % , rail t rave l incre ase s by 7 0 % . T he UK po pulat io n incre ase s by 3% and urbanisat io n incre ase s t o 9 4 % . T he de m and fo r rail t rave l re m ains but o nly t he rich can affo rd t o use t he se rvice .

Must be a public demand for the solution

T he GDP pe r capit a incre ase s by 4 5 % , rail t rave l is affo rdable . Running co st s are ke pt lo w as all t rain se rvice s are po we re d by e le ct ricit y. T he GDP pe r capit a incre ase s by 8 2 % , 8 7 % o f all rail t ranspo rt is e le ct rifie d and affo rdable t o t he ge ne ral public. T he GDP pe r capit a incre ase s by 1 2 8 % , rail t rave l is affo rdable t o t he ge ne ral public.

Fo r t he rich, pe rso nal we alt h incre ase s and rail t rave l is wit hin t he ir m e ans. Fo r t he po o r, pe rso nal we alt h de cre ase s and rail t rave l is unaffo rdable .

Solution must remain affordable to general public

All rail syst e m s run o n e le ct ricit y, t he vast m ajo rit y o f ve hicle s run o n hydro ge n but so m e ve hicle s st ill re ly o n fo ssil fue ls. Privat e ve hicle use in t he UK de cre ase s by 34 % , t he use o f public t ranspo rt incre ase s as t he po pulat io n re co gnise e nviro nm e nt al re spo nsibilit ie s.

T he re is a drast ic incre ase o f 4 8 0 % in rail t rave l, wit h 8 7 % o f all rail t rave l e xpe ct e d t o be e le ct rifie d by 2 0 5 0 . UK t raffic le ve ls incre ase by 1 9 % , wit h a re duct io n in t he availabilit y o f fo ssil fue ls co inciding wit h an incre ase o f e le ct ric and hydro ge n fue lle d cars.

T he pe rce nt age o f cars po we re d by fo ssil fue ls re m ains t he sam e as t he pre se nt day, hydro ge n po we re d cars do no t gain a fo o t ho ld in t he m arke t be fo re 2 0 5 0 . Privat e ve hicle usage incre ase s by 8 2 % . Use o f rail t rave l incre ase s m o de st ly in co m pariso n but rail t rave l re m ains m o re e nviro nm e nt ally frie ndly t han privat e ve hicle use .

T he t ransit io n t o re ne wable fue ls is lim it e d, fo ssil fue l price s incre ase as supplie s de cre ase . Fo r t he rich, privat e ve hicle t rave l incre ase s while fo r t he po o r, privat e ve hicle t rave l is unaffo rdable . Ove rall rail t rave l de cre ase s by 35 % , wit h o nly t he rich be ing able t o affo rd rail t rave l

Must be more environmentally friendly than private vehicle use.

Synthesis of Results
New Sust ainabilit y Paradigm

Policy Reform

Market Forces

Fort ress World

In t his fut ure paradigm

To build a High Speed Railway network linking Birmingham and major northern cities in England To reduce private vehicle use and thus reduce UK carbon emissions

Each ne ce ssary co ndit io n is highly like ly t o co nt inue in t his fut ure wit h t he e xce pt io n o f public de m and, which wo uld incre ase if we m o ve d int o a diffe re nt fut ure paradigm . Each ne ce ssary co ndit io n is highly like ly t o co nt inue in t his fut ure . Each ne ce ssary co ndit io n is highly like ly t o co nt inue in t his fut ure .

t he so lut io n sho ws t he m o st vulnrabilit y. T his is m ainly due t o an incre asing gap be t we e n t he rich and po o r and a so cial igno rnace o f e nviro nm e nt al issue s, t wo fact o rs I do no t be lie ve will be pre se nt in t he UK's fut ure .

Decision
Decision: implement T his solut ion aims t o reduce carbon emissions, helping t he government reach it s 80% greenhouse gas reduct ion t arget by 2050 (ht t ps://www.gov.uk/government /policies/reducing-t he-uk-s-greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-80-by-2050). It will achieve t his by reducing privat e vehicle use: by building a high speed railway net work connect ing Birmingham t o major nort hern cit ies, t his solut ion will endeavour t o provide an affordable, green and fast met hod of cross count ry t ravel compared t o privat e vehicle use. Usage of t rains reached 54 .1 billion passenger kilomet res in 2011 (Nat ional Rail Trends 2010-11 Yearbook, Table 1.1a) and passenger usage of long dist ance services has increased every year bar one since 1994 (Nat ional Rail Trends 2010-11 Yearbook, Table 1.2b). In 2011, on t rains during rush hour in Birmingham, 8.9% of passengers were st anding (Nat ional Rail Trends 2010/11 Yearbook, Table 2.4 c). T hese fact s highlight t he fact t hat t here is a demand for t he new high speed railway. T he new high speed net work would cost up t o 30 billion pounds, but it is economically viable in t he long run and required t o keep up wit h t he rest of t he world (Economic Case for HS2). Research shows t hat at best , t he building of t he railway would result in a carbon reduct ion of 27 million t onnes (HS2 London t o t he West Midlands: Appraisal of Sust ainabilit y Non Technical Summary).

T he government approved t he implement ing of t his solut ion in February 2013, wit h t he complet ion dat e set at 2026 (ht t p://www.railnews.co.uk/news/2011/03/30-new-group-is-launched-in.ht ml). Despit e some prot est s, overall public opinion is posit ive and in favour of t he solut ion. My resiliency analysis focused on 4 condit ions: 1. Solut ion must be economically viable 2. Must be a public demand for t he solut ion 3. Solut ion must remain affordable t o general public 4 . Must be more environment ally friendly t han privat e vehicle use. T he relevant indicat ors I select ed t o check resiliency in t he four fut ures included: Supporting Reason: Populat ion Income Urbanisat ion Privat e road t ravel Public road t ravel Passenger rail t ravel Transport at ion fuel t ype

T he resilience analysis was an overall success, wit h only 2 condit ions highly unlikely t o cont inue in t he fut ure. T he key element behind t hese vulnerabilit ies is t he divide of wealt h bet ween t he rich and poor. Bot h t hese vulnerabilit ies were found in t he fort ress world, t he paradigm I believe is least likely t o occur in t he fut ure, at least not in t he UK. T his is relevant as t he solut ion is int ended for t he UK so t he likely fut ure world paradigm in ot her count ries (e.g. Braz il) will not affect t his solut ion. Apart from t he 2 condit ions ment ioned above, ever ot her condit ion bar 1 is highly likely t o cont inue in t he fut ure. I believe t he most likely fut ure paradigms for t he UK are t he policy reform or market forces paradigms, bot h of which achieved posit ive result s in t he resiliency analysis. I would not hesit at e in implement ing t his solut ion based upon t he result s obt ained. For furt her fut ure prot ect ion, as t he est imat ed complet ion dat e for t his solut ion is 2026, while const ruct ion is underway an eye should be kept on t he fut ure we predict are heading for, whet her it be market forces or policy reform. References DfT, Transport St at ist ics Great Brit ain, 2010 Edit ion, November 2010, Nat ional and Light Rail Tables; and, ORR, Nat ional Rail Trends 2010-11 Yearbook, Table 1.1a ORR. Nat ional Rail Trends 2010/11 Yearbook, Table 2.4 c DfT, Economic Case for HS2: T he Y Net work and London West Midlands, February 2011, para 4 .6.5 ht t p://www.railnews.co.uk/news/2011/03/30-new-group-is-launched-in.ht ml Booz & co., Temple for HS2 Lt d., HS2 London t o t he West Midlands: Appraisal of Sust ainabilit y Non Technical Summary, February 2011, p95

Urban Futures Interactive Tool


To use the Urban Futures Interactive Tool again please visit http://www.urban-futures.org.

Microsoft Office Excel 2007 (12.0.6654.5003) SP3 MSO (12.0.6607.1000) Tool version 2.2

You might also like