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Economic Insights - May 8, 2013

Where is the GTA Condo Market Heading?

Benjamin Tal
recent surge in condo activity is, in many ways, a direct consequence of the structural shift in the GTAs housing mix, whereby the condo market compensated for the lack of growth in low-rise housing. This shift from lowdensity to high-density housing has been directed by provincial intensification policies under the Places to Grow Act, encouraging a more sustainable approach to urban development by restricting land availability for the low-rise market. In many cases, local interests in the Greater Golden Horseshoe area are not aligned with the provinces goal of intensificationleading to significant delays in the approval processfurther limiting supply. So significant has been the move from lateral to vertical developments that currently, multiple units account for a record-high 75% of all housing starts in the GTA. That is 20 percentage points above the long-term average. Yet, a casual examination of the available inventories in the market reveals none of this drama. At just under 1,600, the number of newly completed & unoccupied units in the GTA market is comfortably close to its longterm average (Chart 2, left) , and it is, in fact, below that threshold when adjusted for population growth. But the right side of Chart 2 tells the real tale. The relative stability of total available inventories masks rising inventories in the condo market and falling inventories in the single and semi-detached market. The high level of volatility in condo
Chart 2

Counting cranes is a new pass-time in Toronto given the citys latest claim to fame as the urban centre with the most high-rise real estate projects in North America. Are we in a bubble? It takes more than counting cranes to provide a credible answer. The GTA condo market is a multi-dimensional market that is often misrepresented for the sake of simplicity. Zooming in on the condo market without a good understanding of the context of the broader housing market in the area is a common error that can easily lead to misdiagnosis. A closer look reveals a reasonably balanced market, but a market that has not yet faced its ultimate test. The Big Shift At first glance the picture is alarming. Condo preconstruction sales in the GTA were down by 24% (yearover-year) in the first quarter of 2013 and are more than 10% below their long-term average. Builders, on average, are able to pre-sell only 20% of their units in the first month following the launch of a new projectless than half the rate seen in the past few years (Chart 1, left). Yet, developers continue to break ground. At close to 60,000 units in construction, condo activity is currently at a record high (Chart 1, right). But looking at todays condo market in isolation is an error that even a casual observer should not make. The

Chart 1

Is There Something Wrong With This Picture?

Slowing Condo Sales... 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 Nov-12

Unalarming Available Inventories (L) Mask Two Opposing Trajectories (R)

Total Newly Completed & Unoccupied 2,500

Booming Construction Activity

Avg first month pre-sale (GTA), 3-mo moving avg

1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0

Newly Completed & Unoccupied

65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000

Toronto multiples home under construction (units)

2,000

1,500 1,000 long-term avg

500

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
0

06 07 08 09 10 11 12

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Single & semi-detached Multiples

Source: RealNet Canada, CMHC, CIBC

Source: CMHC, CIBC

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Economic Insights - May 8, 2013

inventories is nothing new. What is new is the dramatic dive in the number of single & semi detached units, which is now at its lowest level on record. No surprise then that virtually all the increase in new home prices in the GTA over the past two years came from the low-rise market. In fact, per square foot, the price gap between low- and high-rise units is at a record high. The Rental Factor The surge in condo activity also reflects the fact that due to a multitude of reasons such as rent control and preferences, condo rentals replaced apartment building as the main source of rental units. In fact, since 2007 virtually all the increase in units available for rent came from the condo market, with 22% of the stock of condos and (estimated) one-third of the flow (new construction) currently for rent (Chart 3). Still the vacancy rate in the condo space is around 1% while rent is estimated to be rising at an inflation-beating 3%. Important here is that in response to affordability issues and growing investor demand, condo builders have reduced the average unit size by almost 15% since 2009. This trend has two important implications: first, the move towards smaller units might represent short-term thinking and could result in a mismatch among the type of units supplied and ultimately demanded for occupancy by growing young families that are priced out of the singledetached market, and by aging baby boomers. Second, the consensus in the building industry is that we have reached the minimum average unit size that the market will tolerate, suggesting that builders will no longer be able to improve affordability in any meaningful way.

Can They Build It? While the big shift from lateral to vertical developments can easily explain the recent trajectory of the condo market in the GTA, can it explain its magnitude? The short answer is no. A glance at Chart 4 reveals a record-high gap between total housing starts and completions in the GTA with starts rising strongly in both 2011 and 2012. Based on the average length of condo construction it is reasonable to expect 2013 to see the number of condo completions rising to just under 20,000. But the big story will be in 2014 when, in theory, completions can reach close to 35,000. Given that over the past 10 years the number of condo completions averaged less than 15,000 we are clearly in uncharted territory. Such a level of completions is viewed by many in the industry as unachievable due to capacity limitations. Yes, in the 1970s the industry was able to complete as many as 25,000 high-rise units in a given year, but those were apartment buildings that required a much simpler skill set to build than todays new condos. Financing is also becoming an issue with the rapid pace of development causing many lenders to think twice before extending credit, even when the usual threshold of 70% preconstruction sales has been reached. We estimate that condo developers currently face a $2-3 billion financing gapmainly when it comes to tier-2 players and/or the luxury condo space. Accordingly, and based on many discussions with developers, we project that 2013 will see 18,000 condo

Chart 3

Chart 4

Condos For Rent

GTA Condo Market 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 07 08 09 10 11 12 Units for rent (L) Rental Rate (R) 22% 20% units
Growth: 2007-2012

Huge Gap Between Starts and Completion

26% 70,000 24% 60,000

GTA 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 12 record high gap

units

50,000 40,000 30,000

18% 20,000 16%

10,000 0 Rental Condos Rental Apt Buildings

Total C ompletion

Total Starts

Source: CMHC, CIBC

10

Source: CMHC, CIBC

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Economic Insights - May 8, 2013 Chart 6

completions, followed by 23,000 completions in 2014. The practical implication of such a scenario is potentially large-scale delays in project delivery in the coming two years. If They Build It, Will They Come? So far the number of completions has kept up with the increase in household formation. But that will not be the case going forward. Two opposing forces will determine demand for condo units in the coming years. Immigration is key since new immigrants are twice as likely to live in a condo relative to non-immigrants. And here the trend is becoming less friendly, with the city currently receiving 20,000 fewer new immigrants a year than it did on average over the past decade. In fact, the GTA is currently accounting for just over 30% of all new immigrants arriving to Canada, down from 45% as recently as 2006 (Chart 5, left). Helping to offset this trend is the rapid rise in the number of young people in the GTA. At north of 2% year-over-year growth, their number is now rising at the fastest rate in more than two decades (Chart 5, right). Based on these trends and adjusting for the rising share of growth in one-person households and the larger than average household size among new immigrants, we estimate that household formation in the GTA will average 31,000 in the coming few yearsnot fast enough to account for the projected rise in total (lowand high-rise) unit compilations (Chart 6). Overbuilding, however, does not mean an inevitable crash. As past experience reveals, more often than not it leads to a gradual slowing in supplya process that has already begun (Chart 7).
Chart 5

Completions Will Outpace Household Formation in Coming Years

Completion /Household Formation (GTA) Fcst

1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Source: CMHC, Statistics Canada, CIBC

So the picture that is emerging is that 2014-15 will be a turning point in the condo market. With the notable increase in supply we expect to see rental conditions easing, and a gradual increase in vacancy rates, a slowing in rent inflation and some downward pressure on prices. Key for such a trajectory will be the response of condo investors to any increase in supply. If the majority of investors are heavily leveraged (say less than 20% downpayment) and are in the market for the short-term, then we will face the risk of a mass exit with a more notable impact on prices. Our assessment is thats not the case and that the majority of investors will be able to absorb the changing rental market conditions without being forced to sell.
Chart 7

GTA's Demographic Picture

Fewer New Immigrants 140,000 130,000 120,000 110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 00 02 04 06 08 10
More Young People

Builders Are Scaling Down

New Project Launches 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1
Population: Age 20-34 y/y % chg

2.5
persons

2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11

Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC

11

Source: RealNet Canada, CIBC