154364324.xls.

ms_office

Number
Evacuated
3,100
200,000
35,000
217,000

Hours
2.5
100
8
24

Calc'd Hrs
2.13
41.97
12.06
44.49

Case
Flixborough
3 Mile island
First wave At Mississauga, Ontario
Total Evacuation At Mississauga, Ontario

0.71524649 -4.99344295

TIME TO EVACUATE A COMMUNITY

Plot
Hrs To Evac
0.18
132.69
6.58

From Lees, p-209

4000
3000
plot as yellow points

1
2

1000
Evacuation Time, Hours

No.
100
1,000,000
15,000

3 Mi. Isle
100

10

Flixborough
1st Wave
Mississauga

0.1
100

1,000

10,000

100,000

Total Number Evacuated

From Personal Files: PERCS Inc.

Transportation Incidents

Evacuation
Distance
d, Miles
0.7
0.8
1
1.2
1.43
2
3
5
8
10
15

Evacuation
Speed
V, mph
0.209
0.239
0.300
0.361
0.432
0.608
0.920
1.549
2.502
3.141
4.750

Sigma =
m* =
Density
Function
f(v)
0.017
0.144
0.303
0.363
0.379
0.344
0.259
0.154
0.085
0.062
0.033

Based on Hans and Sell, 1974

1.64
0.2

p-210, Lees
p-210, Lees

Evacuation
Time
Hours
3.36
3.35
3.33
3.32
3.31
3.29
3.26
3.23
3.20
3.18
3.16

Not quite sure how to apply this data???

f(V) by Eqn 9.7.6, p-210, Lees

1.000
Density
Function f(V)

9.7 EVACUATION, p-209, Lees S&LP

Page 1

0.100

0.010
0.100

1.000
Evacuation Speed, mph

154364324.xls.ms_office

Lees, Table 9.14, p-209

No.
Hrs
150,000
2
35,000
4
4,000
3
3,000
4

Note the difference in this data with that above.

Evacuation Hours

10

1
1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

Number Evacuated

Richard Prugh, 1985, has developed an Evacuation Effectiveness Plan based on the Hans ans Sell data in Lees
CPQRA, P-170

Area =
Wind mph
Dist =
warning =
Density =
A^0.33D^0.4 =

5
1
1
1
2000
35.6

35.6
35.6

Calc'd F %
-0.02632943
26%
51%
80%
Calc'd F %
2%
12%
50%

100.0%

10.0%

1.0%

0.1%
0.1
Warning Hours

Calc'd F %
0.5%
5.5%
40.0%

sq. Miles
miles / hr
miles
hours
people per sq. mile

100.00%

10.00%

1.00%

0.10%
1

At 35.6 and 1 hour read Evac Failure =

Plot

1 hour
Evac Fail %
0.20%
20.00%
54.00%
80.00%
2 hour
Evac Fail %
0.02
0.12
0.5
3 hour
Evac Fail %
0.005
0.055
0.4

Evac Failure %

Evacuation
Failure %
AD Term
0.1
98.0%
3
1
80.0%
10
10
18.0%
30
100
0.1
92.0%
1
54.0% AD Term
10
0.5%
10
30
0.1
80.00%
100
1
20.00%
5
0.10% AD Term
10
0.1
55.00%
30
1
0.20%
100
1.2
0.10%

Evac Failure %

Warning
Hours

(A^0.33)(D^0.4)

60%

55%
55%

Time =

Warning Hrs
1
2
3
1

Page 2

AD Term
35.6
35.6
35.6

Evac F %
55%
15%
7.3%

154364324.xls.ms_office

LINEST =

-1.84872242 -0.58976812

Evacuation Failure %

100%

10%

Series1

1%
1

10
Warning Hours

Page 3

154364324.xls.ms_office

Source
HSE data
S&LP
Dow Internal
Dow Internal

COMMUNITY

3 Mi. Isle

Total
Mississauga
1st Wave
Mississauga

100,000

1,000,000

Not quite sure how to apply this data???

6, p-210, Lees

Series1

10.000

n Speed, mph

Page 4

154364324.xls.ms_office

Series1

1,000,000

ans ans Sell data in Lees

100
30
10
3

10

Warning Hours

1 Hr
2 Hr
3 Hr
Case Pt.

10

100

(A^0.33)(D^0.4)

55%
15%
7%
55%

Page 5

154364324.xls.ms_office

Series1

Page 6

6/27/2013

TIME TO EVACUATE A COMMUNITY

1,000.00

Evacuation Time, Hours

3 Mi. Isle
100.00

Total
Mississauga

10.00

Flixborough

1st Wave
Mississauga

1.00

0.10
100

1,000

10,000
Total Number Evacuated

R.A. (Dick) Hawrelak / PERCS Inc. / 519-542-8280

100,000

1,000,000

Lees Methods

Evacuation
Distance
d, Miles
0.7
0.8
1
1.2
1.43
2
3
5
8
10
15

Evacuation
Speed
V, mph
0.209
0.239
0.300
0.361
0.432
0.608
0.920
1.549
2.502
3.141
4.750

Lees, Table 9.14, p-209

No.
Hrs
150,000
2
35,000
4
4,000
3
3,000
4

Sigma =
m* =
Density
Function
f(v)
0.017
0.144
0.303
0.363
0.379
0.344
0.259
0.154
0.085
0.062
0.033

1.64
0.2

p-210, Lees
p-210, Lees

Evacuation
Time
Hours
3.36
3.35
3.33
3.32
3.31
3.29
3.26
3.23
3.20
3.18
3.16

Not quite sure how to apply this dat

f(V) by Eqn 9.7.6, p-210, Lees

1.000
Density
Function f(V)

Transportation Incidents

Based on Hans and Sell, 1974

0.100

0.010
0.100

1.000

10.000

Evacuation Speed, mph

10
Evacuation Hours

9.7 EVACUATION, p-209, Lees S&LP

Series1

1
1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

Number Evacuated

Note the difference in this data with that on Evac Chart tab.

Page 8

Lees Methods

sure how to apply this data???

Series1

Page 9

Prugh's Methods

Heavy Gas ?
Pop'n Area, A =
10 m Wind mph =
Pop'n Density, D =
Dist, d, to Pop'n =
Notify Time, td =
Warning Time =
(A^0.33)(D^0.4) =

Example 2.4.3, CPQRA, p-174

2
5
1
2,000
1
0
1.00

(1 = Heavy Gas, 2 = Passive)

sq. Miles
Plant
Dist d
miles / hr toward Pop'n
1 Miles
people per sq. mile
Wind Speed =
1 mph
miles
hours before warning horn sounded
Time To Evac Pop'n =
hours = Dist / mph wind - td

35.6

AD Term

At Warning Time = 1 hrs., Evac Failure =

Warning Hrs
1
2
3
1

LINEST =

AD Term
35.6
35.6
35.6

55%

Evac Fail %
55%
15%
7.3%

Calc'd Fail %
55%
15%
7%
55%

Population
10,000

4.92

hours

100%

At AD

10%

Case Pt.

1%
1

10
Warning Hours

slope m
constant b
-1.848722425 -0.589768119

Plot case pt.

1
1

Examples
1965
1969
1972
1973

Evacuation Failure %

Case Study

Location
Baton Rouge
Glendora Miss.
Louisvill Ky
Morgan City, La

55%
55%

Incident
Cl2 barge
VCM barge
Cl2 barge
Cl2 barge

Population
No. Evac'd
150,000
35,000
4,000
3,000

Area
Sq. Miles
8
1200
0.35
1.8

Evacuation Evacuation
Distance
Time
Evacuation Time To Evac
Miles
Hours
Failure % Hours
30
2
52%
34.16
20
4
5%
12.06
1
3
5%
2.56
2
4
2%
2.08

Enter data and adjust wind speed till Evac Time matched

Page 10